证券研究报告 市场缩量明显宽基ERP7年90%分位附近 20230924 -中信建投

证券研究报告策略周报本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。本周市场表现/景气/估值要点概览核心观点：市场表现层面，本周低市盈率、小盘、金融地产风格表现居前。盈利层面，9月23年Wind盈利一致预期动销环比恢复但分化明显。估值及交易热度层面，市场缩量明>市场表现：本周（9.16-9.22）低市盈率、小盘、金融地产风格表现居前；高市盈率、大盘、原材料风格表现靠后。主要指数成分中，上证50、沪深300表现居前；宁组合、科创50表现靠后。行业涨跌幅上，通信/非银金融/传媒涨幅居前，美容护理/社会服务/有色金属跌幅居前。热门概念上，科技板块凭借周五大幅反弹，周涨幅领先。>盈利预测变动：9月23年Wind盈利一致预期上调幅度靠前的申万一级行业为石油石化（+0.36%）、汽车（+0.13%）；下调幅度靠前的行业为农林牧渔、钢铁。数字经济产业链细分方面，以Wind一致预期看，23年盈利预期排序：SAAS（172%）>在线教育（134%）>网络安全（133%）>数据安全（113%）>数字政府（91%）>游戏（除世纪华通）（77%）>云计算（66%）>IDC（62%）。>行业景气核心指标变动：1）周期：价格上行：动力煤、焦煤/焦炭、水泥、玻璃、铝等；价格下行：螺纹钢、铜、布油等；2）大金融：地产方面，二手房、新房成交环比回升，但幅度有限。据克尔瑞地产监测，截至9月17日当周，14城二手房成交面积138.8万平方米，环比增长16%，同比因去年中秋节低基数上升61%。30城新房成交面积同比-9.4%，降幅较上周收窄3.9pct。银行方面，8月社融信贷回暖；3）高端制造：汽车方面，9月车市整体表现有韧性，“金九银十”仍可期。据乘联会统计，9月1-17日，乘用车市场零售80.4万辆，同比增长10%，环比增长2%。新能源车市场零售31.3万辆，同比增长29%，环比增长8%。光伏方面，产业链各环节分化加剧，静待需求改善。4）消费：必选方面，需求仍未明显好转，预计随双节来临猪价或小幅上涨但弹性有限。可选方面，消费旺季来临，白酒动销环比恢复但分化明显。>估值水平及交易热度：沪深300、沪深300（除金融）股权风险溢价均位于7年90%分位上方；上证指数/上证50估值分别处于5年51.6%/62.9%分位数附近；创业板指/宁组合分别处于市盈率5年5.5%/0.0%分位数附近。交易热度方面，本周市场缩量明显，日均仅6500亿，消费板块关注度上行。申万二级板块中，汽车零部件、军工电子交易热度高。 上证0大/小盘低/中/高市盈率低中高金融地产原材料设备制造交通运输科技行业涨跌幅表现：通信/非银金融/传媒表现居前3.02.01.00.0游行游行版他3.0%87.9%AI算力芯片方面，龙头中际旭创近日表示目前在手订单充足，客户对800G/400G需求旺盛，正根据重点客户的需求持续推进和完善产品，8月AI大模型致算力芯片供不应求，为高端光模块带来显著需求增益。算力方面，9月20日华为联合信通院、科大讯飞研究院发布《星河AI网络白皮书》，并在《数据中心2030》报告中预测2030年全球AI算力将超105ZFlops。1.9%36.4%据彭博社报道，中国正考虑放宽外资对部分A股持股上限，目前讨论尚处初期阶段。1.5%49.7%微软更新AI功能，Copilot即将在Windows系统全面铺开。随着Copilot在Windows系统中全面铺开，生成式人工智能将率先从办公场景进入千家万户，商业化落地节奏不断加快。6602022-072022-102023-012023-0420202021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082中4中6中8中2中4中6中8中0700w1w37w43w1w37w43000图：目前整体工业企业处于主动去库末期，被动去库初期周期阶段起始时间终止时间持续时间主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存2009/8/12010/5/12011/10/12012/9/12010/5/12011/10/12012/9/12013/8/19主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存2013/8/12013/11/12014/9/12015/12/12013/11/12014/9/12015/12/12016/6/136主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存2016/6/12017/3/12018/8/12017/3/12018/8/12019/10/19主动补库存被动补库存被动去库存2019/10/12020/1/12020/3/12020/1/12020/3/12020/10/1327主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存2020/10/12021/4/12021/11/12022/3/12022/5/12023/5/12021/4/12021/11/12022/3/12022/5/12023/5/12023/7/3167423工业企业:产成品存货:同比（%）工业企业:利润总额:累计同比（%）08股指PE(TTM)8PE(TTM)PE(TTM)10年分位 近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)科创50科创50指数近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)PE(整体法,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(中位数,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB（LF）3年分位5年分位10年分位万得全A-3.1%22.72%9.7%万得全A(除金融、石油石化)-4.6%41.4%22.72%上证指数-2.3%40.9%51.6%41.0%55.64%沪深300-2.2%8.44%21.01%4.5%9.8%上证50-1.3%47.4%58.6% 68.83%47.1%51.4%中证500-5.8%57.1%46.9%50.00%54.86%28.71%9.0%中证1000-6.7%58.6%41.4%29.18%创业板指-4.5%5.5%8.44%4.024.029.7%科创50-3.3%茅指数-1.5%52.7%9.96%45.3%宁组合-1.2%5.109.3%股权风险溢价：沪深300位于7年90%分位上方万得全A隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间7年均值沪深300隐含风险溢价(%)7年10%-90%区间7年均值58473625143021注：隐含风险溢价=1/指数市盈率-中债10年33221100381614927238161492725038161492725注：隐含风险溢价=1/指数市盈率-中债10年股指PE-G/PB-ROE图：主要指数PE-G(注：灰色空心圆代表上一月盈利预期所在位置)图：主要指数PB-ROE数数数数86ROEROE(TTM)-23Q1数数万万金金中) )板块年初至今涨跌幅4.4-0.6盈利增速预测月度盈利调整周度度盈利调整8月调整幅度9月调整幅度上周调整幅度本周调整幅度石油石化30.9%-0.68%-0.68%0.37%1.0.36%-0.4%43.9%-1.68%-1.68%0.07%-1.14%-1.14%0.03%公用事业-58.7%84.6%90.1%-1.61%-1.61%-0.12%-1.39%-1.39%-0.24%通信-13.09.5%-0.36%-0.36%-0.14%-0.10%-0.10%-0.01%综合83.0%-4.3%-34.4%6.19%-0.15%2.13%0.00%银行-0.69.4-6.34.3%-1.14%-1.14%-0.26%-0.83%-0.83%-0.20%家用电器9.9%-0.03%-0.03%-0.27%0.00%0.00%-0.13%建筑装饰-3.3%-0.64%-0.64%-0.27%-0.60%-0.60%-0.09%食品饮料9.8%21.9%-1.40%-1.40%-0.56%-1.51%-1.51%-0.28%传媒82.2%-68.9%213.2%-0.97%-0.97%-0.63%-0.96%-0.96%-0.38%轻工制造-2.3-15.15.29.6-10.4-9.4-3.10.6%-32.2%61.4%-3.29%-3.29%-0.69%-1.87%-1.87%-0.37%社会服务8.3%-43.4%2580.2%-1.55%-1.55%-0.81%-0.27%-0.27%-0.42%-0.42%机械设备9.5%-6.1%31.6%-2.07%-2.07%-0.81%-1.19%-1.19%-0.39%非银金融5.4%-26.9%32.9%-3.93%-3.93%-0.91%-2.68%-2.68%-0.78%-0.78%交通运输2041.1%-44.1%-1.28%-1.28%-1.18%-1.18%-0.16%-0.16%-0.34%计算机-44.2%95.9%-3.79%-3.79%-1.50%-1.50%-1.31%-1.31%-0.76%-0.76%医药生物55.6%-6.2%26.9%-2.17%-2.17%-1.54%-1.54%-1.51%-1.51%-0.67%-0.67%国防军工8.5%-7.4%-2.58%-2.58%-1.57%-1.57%-2.54%-2.54%-0.54%-0.54%煤炭51.7%-12.6% -11.73%-1.63%-1.63% -5.12%-0.52%-0.52%美容护理-19.7-11.5-24.1-19.338.9%-34.8%58.9%2.17%2.17%-1.63%-1.63%-4.45%-1.96%-1.96%房地产-77.4%-213.4%86.7%-1.87%-1.87%-1.86%-1.86%-3.36%-3.36%-0.25%商贸零售-164.5%61.1%-2.01%-2.01%-1.94%-1.94%-2.48%-2.48%-0.32%电力设备42.0%82.8%31.0%-4.99%-4.99%-2.16%-2.16%-2.26%-2.26%-1.13%-1.13%纺织服饰59.8%-42.8%25.7%-2.51%-2.51%-2.23%-2.23%-0.41%-0.41%-0.22%环保-2.8-10.2-4.7-8.0-13.3%-11.1%31.1%-1.69%-1.69%-2.45%-2.45%-1.16%-1.16%-0.07%96.2%-28.4%21.1%-6.58%-2.50%-2.50%-4.16%-1.41%-1.41%基础化工-5.6%-2.3%-8.47%-4.96% -5.93%-3.04%有色金属68.4%2.0%-7.55%-5.10% -5.81%-2.27%-2.27%建筑材料-46.1% -13.30%-5.11%-3.42%-3.42%-1.36%-1.36%钢铁-0.7-13.089.9%-72.9%52.5%-5.64%-5.64%-2.24%-2.24%-2.87%农林牧渔-140.8%36.2%-26.98%-13.26%-13.15%-7.36%指标频率铜数值单位周/月环比指标频率铜数值单位周/月环比趋势更新时间2023/9/222023/9/222023/8/31价格阴极铜期货国内现货日日6.66.8万元/吨万元/吨-5.5%-2.4%8%精炼铜月111.7万吨8.0%16.4%产量铜材进口铜矿+废铜月月186.6285.3万吨万吨-0.5%34.3%-0.5%18.2%2023/8/312023/8/312023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/8/31库存上期所LME+COMEX周日5.418.6万吨万吨-16.9%11.4%49%指标频率铝数值单位环比趋势价格铝期货国内现货日日2.02.0万元/吨万元/吨0.9%1.0%4%7%电解铝月360.0万吨3.4%3.1%产量铝材进口铝土矿开工率月月月548.31163.595.6万吨万吨%3.8%-9.9%2.26.6%8.8%2.12023/8/312023/8/312023/7/312023/9/222023/9/22库存上期所LME周日9.048.2万吨万吨-13.7%-2.6%-54%39%图：煤炭板块核心景气跟踪指标动力煤更新时间更新时间指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势动力煤期货价环渤海动力煤纽卡斯尔现货价动力煤长协价元/吨元/吨量原煤产量当月同比进口量当月同比月月%%--库存CCTD主流港口库存周5827.7万吨1.1%5%样本区域电厂日耗周213万吨0.5%需求当月发电量月消费量：动力煤：电力月24246.0万吨9.4%11%焦煤指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势国内期货价港口现货价日日量原煤产量当月同比进口量当月同比月月2.050.5%%-1.6-16.4 - 六港口合计焦化厂可用天数周周天社会融资规模存量:同比M2:同比GDP当社会融资规模存量:同比M2:同比GDP当8642050图：地产板块核心景气跟踪指标图：社融/M2/GDP同比情况指标频率数值单位周/月环比同比趋势更新时间2022/12/312022/12/312023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/172023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/172023/9/172023/6/302023/6/302023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/31土地新建土地购置面积同比新增土地成交价款同比土地溢价率月月周-51.6-51.31.7%%%6.8-0.5-0.3---2.6价格70城新房价格指数同比70城二手房价格指数同比百城住宅价格：二线：同比百城住宅价格：三线：同比二手房价格指数月月月月月周-0.6-3.2-0.2-0.5-0.2182.3%%%%%0.00-0.100.00-0.15-0.14-0.1%------4.5%量30城成交面积同比商品房销售面积：累计同比开发投资：累计同比施工面积：累计同比新开工面积：累计同比竣工面积：累计同比周月月月月月-9.4-7.1-8.8-7.1-24.419.2%%%%%%3.9-0.6-0.3-0.30.1-1.3------库存10城可售面积10城存销比周周8465.570.7万平米%0.2%3.9-3.3%8.6资金住房贷款加权平均利率个人住房贷款余额同比开发资金累计同比国内贷款累计同比个人按揭贷款累计同比自筹资金累计同比季季月月月月4.1-0.7-12.9-12.8-4.3-22.9%%%%%%0.0-1.0-1.7-1.3-3.30.1-0.5-6.912.114.620.1-10.6-指标频率数值单位环比-指标频率数值单位环比趋势更新时间2023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/222022/10/312022/10/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312022/12/31价格单晶硅片182mm单晶硅片210mm单晶PERC电池片182mm单晶PERC电池片210mm单晶PERC组件-182mm光伏玻璃3.2mmEVA出厂价-扬子巴斯夫周周周周周周周日85.04.228.0元0.0%-1.2%-4.2%0.0%-1.6%0.0%-5.7%-71.9%-55.5%-57.6%-46.9%-43.8%-38.9%5.7%-39.4%产销国内装机量累计同比太阳能电池产量同比逆变器出口金额同比光伏电池出口金额同比月月月月月50.498.777.8-28.3-16.6%%%%%-81.2-7.1-15.3 ---月96.5%-开工率月月月84.488.061.1%%%-1.2-0.9---2022/12/312022/12/312022/12/31国庆假期将至，各地新一轮地方补贴与厂商三季度末冲量共发力环比上行1.2%，硅料环节供需仍偏紧，整体价格小幅上行。硅片环节相对被动，短期价格走势分化、主流尺寸电指标频率数值单位周/月环比趋势更新时间2023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/212023/9/172023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/9/22汽车消费指数库存预警指数二手车价格月月月80.856.96.5万元5.4-0.9-1%-8.52.2-1%产量乘用车产量半钢胎开工率月周227.572.1万辆%8%-0.15%9.2销量周度日均零售同比周度日均批售同比二手车交易量乘用车销量新能源车销量周周月月月6.022.0155.9227.371.6%%万辆万辆万辆-8.013.0-1%8%11.7%--6%7%35%成本橡胶.期货价玻璃.期货价铝.期货价钢铁.期货价日日日日14120.01726.019505.03773.0元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨0.0%1.6%0.5%-0.7%7%4%0%猪集中上市，市场维持供大于求局面。参考去年节日预期及二育活跃下价格较强上涨，中秋、国庆双节将至预计对市场有所提图：养殖板块核心景气跟踪指标图：饮品指标频率数值单位周/月环比趋势更新时间2023/9/222023/9/222023/9/12023/9/12023/9/222023/9/22价格外三元生猪价格生猪期货价仔猪价格猪肉价格日日周周31.422.8元/公斤万元/吨元/公斤元/公斤-2%-2%-1%-33%-29%-34%-26%养殖利润-生猪养殖利润-仔猪周周-43.8-99.5元/头元/头-16.3-19.5-713.0-900.4养殖利润生猪饲料价猪料比价周周3.74.6元/公斤-1%0.04%-1.82023/9/132023/9/13猪料比价平衡点周4.52023/9/132023/7/312023/7/31产量生猪存栏同比能繁母猪存栏同比月月0.0-0.6%%0.0-1.1--酒类更新时间2023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/31指标频率数值单位环比同比趋势白酒批价指数同比名酒批价指数同比地方酒批价指数同比飞天茅台散瓶五粮液-普五泸州老窖-国窖舍得-品味洋河梦之蓝M6+古井贡-古20口子窖-10年产量京东线上销额旬旬旬日周周周周周周月月0.3%0.0%2820.096088033360047521526.8元元元元元元元万千升亿元-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.0%-1.7%-2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-7%-2.0%-4.3%-6.2%-6.5%-13.6%0.0%-5%47%36大中城市均价月4.1元/罐-1.0%1.0%啤酒产量月374.4万千升-7%-6%淘宝+京东线上销额月3.7亿元-20%-13%体)体)位数)五日成交额占比五年分位数近一周变化食品饮料轻工制造纺织服饰社会服务医药生物商贸零售美容护理农林牧渔-0.19-0.01-0.19-0.14机械设备-0.05-0.22-0.07石油石化基础化工有色金属-0.02-0.10-0.06-0.16-0.03-0.24-0.17-0.19金融非银金融房地产-0.03-0.14公用事业-0.13-0.22)纺 美 机建食品金属 公用事业石融900景气方向板块近一周23年盈利预测变动(%)近四周23年盈利预测变动(%)电力设备计算机国防军工传媒家用电器非银金融建筑装饰银行石油石化通信公用事业煤炭0.76%0.23%0.17%0.12%0.07%0.02%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.38%0.87%0.87%食品饮料食品饮料交通运输轻工制造纺织服饰机械设备环保社会服务医药生物基础化工房地产商贸零售有色金属建筑材料美容护理农林牧渔钢铁2.14%备炭备炭备食品饮料公用事业 电子板块板块23Q2ROE(TTM)2010年以来分位23Q2相比23Q1ROE(TTM)变动方向23Q2相比23Q1ROE(TTM)变动通信电力设备有色金属煤炭基础化工国防军工石油石化机械设备食品饮料钢铁家用电器美容护理农林牧渔传媒纺织服饰环保交通运输轻工制造公用事业商贸零售建筑材料汽车非银金融社会服务医药生物计算机建筑装饰电子银行房地产98.0%92.3%53.8%71.1%61.5%67.3%71.1%28.8%53.8%46.1%28.8%26.9%32.6%9.6%5.7%5.7%7.6%3.8%3.8%9.6%3.8%上行0.2上行0.2下行-1.7下行-2.7下行-2.6上行0.2下行-0.6上行0.2上行1.0下行-1.3上行0.8上行0.8下行-1.5上行0.5上行0.5上行0.0上行0.4上行0.0上行0.8上行1.2下行-0.8上行0.8下行-0.6上行1.7下行-0.3上行0.0下行0.0下行-0.7上行0.1上行1.5主要申万二级行业估值及交易指标：电池、家大类行业近一周23年盈利预测变动(%)PE(TTM,整体)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位数)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB（LF）3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交额占比五年分位数近一周变化换手率(MA5)五年分位近一周变化消费家电零部件3.40%28.32.7%2.7%30.5%23.6%30.130.8%41.7%28.9%3.31.2%30.5%39.6%82.3%0.0%26.5%-0.28养殖业0.14%23.849.0%41.0%31.7%28.328.8%46.5%25.9%3.014.7%8.8%7.9%9.2%0.0%0.2%-0.03化学制剂0.06%33.025.8%20.6%13.8%27.63.2%5.1%2.6%2.920.2%13.0%6.5%93.3%0.4%81.8%0.19食品加工0.05%22.90.7%0.4%0.2%29.616.0%11.0%5.6%2.91.7%1.0%0.5%12.9%0.0%18.1%0.15白色家电0.05%11.116.3%11.3%9.5%13.41.3%0.8%0.4%2.421.5%12.9%6.4%7.8%0.1%0.4%0.03啤酒0.01%34.10.7%0.4%7.4%30.30.6%0.4%2.0%4.22.1%38.3%68.3%55.7%0.0%42.7%0.23小家电-0.01%22.32.1%4.0%2.5%22.47.7%26.0%17.6%3.51.3%23.0%36.1%38.5%0.0%18.1%0.00-0.03%29.57.6%7.6%25.7%54.1%32.17.7%36.6%42.8%8.118.4%34.9%67.5%25.1%0.1%1.7%-0.05CXO-0.18%23.813.4%8.1%4.0%31.77.1%4.3%2.7%3.89.5%5.7%2.9%73.9%0.1%78.1%0.10酒店餐饮-0.19%102.524.0%54.3%76.5%53.319.2%37.8%42.3%2.75.9%39.4%21.1%94.2%0.0%78.0%-0.21医疗器械-0.21%22.959.7%35.9%17.9%28.112.8%7.8%4.0%2.84.3%2.6%1.3%32.7%0.1%9.1%0.07家居用品-0.23%24.015.5%14.2%7.1%24.946.8%34.9%17.9%2.430.7%54.4%29.2%29.2%0.0%26.5%-0.08化妆品-0.51%36.70.7%0.7%32.3%51.7%40.021.8%31.9%29.8%3.92.4%34.4%29.5%63.4%0.0%13.6%0.06医疗服务-0.52%77.37.4%7.4%23.1%40.8%76.425.0%36.2%42.5%6.31.2%32.7%51.4%41.7%0.0%4.9%0.01航空机场-1.13%1091.464.9%78.9%89.5%30.439.1%55.9%72.6%3.377.7%86.6%92.6%28.2%0.0%11.4%0.02制造电池4.58%21.90.3%0.2%0.1%26.50.6%0.4%0.2%3.20.2%19.7%12.4%37.2%-0.1%0.5%-0.11军工电子2.85%43.626.7%24.8%12.3%38.72.6%1.6%1.0%3.75.5%34.1%26.8%94.8%-0.2%51.8%-0.56航空装备1.25%45.80.5%5.0%2.5%48.40.0%21.2%11.2%3.30.8%35.8%31.6%6.4%0.0%0.9%-0.05汽车零部件0.20%27.131.1%56.2%58.1%35.337.8%56.9%42.8%2.227.8%54.0%37.6%97.7%0.0%59.8%-0.09光伏设备0.02%12.60.3%0.2%0.1%23.51.3%1.6%1.0%3.00.3%30.6%28.2%43.2%0.1%1.1%0.00工程机械-0.01%22.265.8%79.5%51.7%27.678.2%81.1%51.6%29.7%29.8%60.3%13.9%0.0%7.4%0.01机器人-0.04%71.379.3%87.5%66.1%47.667.9%74.8%47.9%4.062.2%73.0%38.5%86.9%0.0%67.4%-0.23乘用车-0.14%24.24.8%4.8%42.7%71.5%19.910.9%26.0%27.4%2.312.2%47.2%66.6%74.2%0.1%47.5%-0.06电网设备-0.25%16.60.7%0.4%0.2%35.146.8%40.9%26.7%2.22.9%37.7%22.5%0.9%0.0%1.5%-0.04风电设备-0.75%26.562.4%73.0%49.0%28.246.8%58.7%40.3%0.3%11.0%7.9%42.3%0.0%5.0%-0.03TMT游戏2.08%38.283.4%86.5%53.6%34.082.1%75.6%50.4%2.972.7%69.7%38.3%69.7%0.3%40.2%0.16消费电子-0.39%29.132.8%29.9%15.2%37.765.4%50.6%27.5%2.815.9%9.6%4.8%30.5%0.2%23.0%-0.04半导体-1.46%60.456.1%45.3%24.7%73.367.3%60.8%44.0%3.81.6%19.0%25.7%32.0%-0.1%9.9%-0.29金融地产公用证券0.06%21.571.9%45.0%42.5%28.985.3%53.7%55.2%35.3%27.7%16.6%46.5%0.4%49.1%0.10基础建设-0.01%7.938.3%32.1%16.0%13.534.0%35.3%18.3%0.729.4%18.4%9.2%63.3%0.0%55.0%-0.05城商行-0.03%4.85.7%3.4%8.9%5.00.6%0.4%0.2%0.58.9%5.4%2.7%77.6%0.1%63.7%0.13电力-0.06%23.436.9%62.0%73.1%23.235.3%56.1%45.4%29.8%53.7%39.1%48.5%-0.4%24.9%-0.13物流-0.10%14.03.3%2.0%1.4%19.913.5%8.2%4.2%2.4%1.4%0.7%25.8%0.0%1.9%-0.08房地产开发-1.35%14.190.3%94.2%63.7%17.356.4%72.9%42.2%0.814.5%8.7%4.3%63.2%-0.3%70.6%-0.14周期贵金属0.18%39.850.6%45.7%34.2%33.638.5%25.5%17.9%3.053.4%66.3%53.2%42.9%0.0%27.8%-0.03煤炭开采0.00%7.235.0%27.5%13.7%7.437.2%22.8%14.2%45.8%67.4%53.1%83.1%-0.1%53.4%-0.09装修建材-0.21%27.438.7%46.8%31.3%31.580.1%76.9%40.5%2.47.8%18.6%15.5%13.9%0.1%16.4%0.07工业金属-0.83%18.156.5%34.0%16.9%26.059.0%43.5%23.4%2.052.9%71.7%48.8%48.4%-0.1%12.0%-0.13农化制品-1.33%13.534.0%20.4%10.2%19.343.6%31.5%19.6%0.9%31.5%17.3%15.8%0.0%0.8%-0.02普钢-4.35%26.395.5%97.3%66.7%14.866.7%78.7%60.1%0.838.2%35.8%26.3%42.9%0.0%27.8%-0.03能源金属-8.56%7.05.1%3.1%1.5%6.89.6%5.9%3.7%2.00.4%0.2%0.1%29.9%-0.1%1.3%-0.19智能汽车半导体材料计算机设备 0.340.530.471.150.750.750.881.202.101.612.110.270.371.201.590.280.440.300.781.041.471.04数字经济产业链细分22年实际增速23年预测增速上游网络安全显示面板服务器操作系统半导体设备计算机设备半导体材料半导体分立器件消费电子光纤光缆汽车电子基站光模块半导体封测-77%智能汽车半导体材料计算机设备 0.340.530.471.150.750.750.881.202.101.612.110.270.371.201.590.280.440.300.781.041.471.04数字经济产业链细分22年实际增速23年预测增速上游网络安全显示面板服务器操作系统半导体设备计算机设备半导体材料半导体分立器件消费电子光纤光缆汽车电子基站光模块半导体封测-77% -3%-82% 4% 12% 25%-12% 37%-13%-15%324%9% 4% 33%-45%-2%133%62%59%51%47%46%46%40%30%29%29%28%22%21%21%9%44.732.727.728.054.029.725.322.522.921.916.524.226.844.033.418.20.550.640.550.570.57数据安全云计算工业软件运营商-48%-40%-20% -4%9%172%113%66%40%47.141.336.148.116.30.54下游在线教育数字政府游戏（除世纪华通）数字媒体金融科技智能电网智能汽车智能物流667%-60%0%-23%-11%43%127%7%134%91%77%48%40%15%13%12%37.140.523.025.931.215.119.812.50.54 金融科技运营商基站半导体分立器件服务器显示面板金融科技 动力电池23年预测增速储能逆变器风电设备风电设备电池组件消费电子光伏加工设备半导体设备军工半导体材料动力电池智能汽车新能源整车创新药新材料智能电网硅料硅片52%51%49%46%43%40% -类别指数名称本周涨跌幅近1月涨跌幅PS（TTM）三年分位PE（TTM）三年分位换手率(MA5)五年分位近一周变化汽车热管理无人驾驶1.0%1.0%0.8%6.4%5.5%30.9%43.033.3%16.7%-0.550.5%36.94.0%35.3%-0.45新能源发电储能光伏逆变器特高压光伏屋顶HJT电池TOPcon电池0.0%-5.3%-0.2%-6.4%-0.3%-1.7%0.4%23.70.4%0.1%-0.212.80.3%20.80.3%0.140.4%16.10.4%0.0%-0.10 -0.5%-6.6% -0.7%-3.3% -1.4%-2.4%0.3%12.60.3%0.5%-0.020.3%11.60.3%0.2%-0.110.4%18.70.4%0.2%0.01半导体EDA先进封装IGBT第三代半导体半导体材料半导体设备 -0.8%1.6% -1.4%6.2% -1.8%-0.3% -2.3%1.2% -2.6%4.4% -4.0%-0.4%18.2%28.632.1%33.7%-0.1727.0%76.297.7%36.5%-0.040.3%24.50.3%5.9%-0.113.70.3%67.635.5%0.8%-0.303.41.5%34.11.5%3.1%-0.556.32.3%39.60.3%19.3%-0.17新消费CRO培育钻石预制菜1.1%1.1%4.6%5.79.7%25.613.4%70.8%0.16-0.3%1.1% -0.4%0.8% -0.5%-1.4%3.921.8%55.549.8%34.5%2.013.61.8%45.54.4%5.5%0.100.90.3%60.359.8%59.8%28.4%-0.13科技6G华为鸿蒙东数西算工业互联网AIGC机器视觉数字货币元宇宙数字经济云计算信创 2.5%4.0% 2.2%2.3% 2.1%-2.1% 1.8%1.3% 1.4%-0.3% 1.2%4.0% 1.1%-1.5% 0.9%-0.3% 0.3%-1.4% 0.2%-3.2%-0.2%-1.4%2.5 38.4%37.415.6%--1.23558.270.9%70.9%83.3%-0.732.883.4%83.4%101.490.4%62.9%-0.64 37.2%22.040.4%0.007.3%--54.8%-0.803.0 50.2%36.1 45.6%24.3%-0.362.97.7%127.158.4%6.3%-0.222.324.0%52.994.9%7.4%-0.0631.3%25.8 40.6%7.0%-0.082.2 42.7%68.158.7%39.8%-0.372.313.6%37.026.8%-0.11其他机器人中字头央企大飞机1.9%2.2%-0.3%-1.6%20.7%28.950.9%36.0%-0.110.795.3%11.578.3%78.3%14.9%-0.04-1.6%-1.6%-0.3%2.80.8%45.51.0%0.5%-0.11指数本周涨跌幅近1月涨跌幅近3月涨跌幅PE（TTM）3年分位5年分位10年分位标普500道琼斯工业指数纳斯达克指数上证指数创业板指英国富时100德国DAX恒生指数法国CAC40韩国综合指数45.5%48.8%