Gartner-3Q23半导体预测交流会-2023-10-零部件

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiGartnerForecastBriefingOct12,2023GartnerSemiconductor&ElectronicsForecastUpdate,3Q23©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.GartnerisaregisteredtrademarkofGartner,Inc.oritsaffiliates.Thispresentation,includingallsupportingmaterials,isproprietarytoGartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliatesandisforthesoleinternaluseoftheintendedrecipients.Becausethispresentationmaycontaininformationthatisconfidential,proprietaryorotherwiselegallyprotected,itmaynotbefurthercopied,distributedorpubliclydisplayedwithouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofGartner,Inc.oritsaffiliates.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiHousekeeping.Thiswebinarisbeingrecorded-Recording,slidedeckandtalktrackwillbemadeavailabletoattendeesafterthewebinar-PleasecheckwithyourGartnerrepresentative.Postyourquestionsinthe‘Q&A’tab-Wewilltakequestionsthroughoutandanswer-Ifincaseyourquestionwasnotanswered,2RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiBy2028,GenerativeAIwillcreatenewmarketopportunitiesandalterBy2028,GenerativeAIwillcreatenewmarketopportunitiesandalterfundamentallyhowHighBandwidthI/O&MemoryGenAIElectronicsDesignHighHighPerformanceComputesemiconductorsandelectronicsareManufacturing&Manufacturing&PackagingPowerDemandRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION3©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.KeyQuestions2.Whataretheend-marketforecastdriverRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION4©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui1.ForecastOutlookRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION5©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui6.1%-0.2%$526$633$724$763$752-12.3%+8.6RevenueChange($B)14.3%-1.5%20.4%5.4%-8.6-2.42Q23Update+12.4+2.3SemiconductorRevenueForecast,3Q236.1%-0.2%$526$633$724$763$752-12.3%+8.6RevenueChange($B)14.3%-1.5%20.4%5.4%-8.6-2.42Q23Update+12.4+2.3OversupplyDemandandChipwillWeakResultinDeviceASPsbeingSqueezedinOversupplyDemandandChipwillWeakSemiconductorReven21.9%$4223.3%$34627.1%$5980.2%$600-10.9%$53515.5%$72116.8%$624$765$76412.9%$476-11.3%$42211.5%$4713Q23Update(G00780493)Source:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION6©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui41.0%AS-Semi37.9%16.4%Memory23.4%16.3%Micro14.4%-1.9%7.1%Opto6.7%116.7%Analog5.9%Discrete6.7%6.5%3.4%GPLogic3.1%2.4%2.2%41.0%AS-Semi37.9%16.4%Memory23.4%16.3%Micro14.4%-1.9%7.1%Opto6.7%116.7%Analog5.9%Discrete6.7%6.5%3.4%GPLogic3.1%2.4%2.2%$534.5TotalSemi$624.4DiscreteSemis&SensorstoOutperformin2023amidExposureinAutomotive;AllDeviceTypestoReboundin2024AS-Semi=Application-specificsemiconductor,GSource:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION7©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiCAPEXWillDeclineintheNearTermBeforeRecoveryDrivenbyNewFabInvestmentsledLogicbydeclinedropswhilememory49%.ledLogicbydeclinedropswhilememory49%.inallsegments;38.2%38.2%32.5%15.2%10.0%10.9%10.0%10.5%8.6%9.3%1.9%-0.1%-3.6%-0.1%-19.0%70.493.3103.199.4110.2152.4175.6142.2142.0156.3169.8173.100Source:Forecast:SemiconductorCSource:Forecast:SemiconductorCSpending,WaferFabEquipmentandCapacity,RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION8©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui022.5%29.6%FoundryWaferShipmentsDecline;FabUtilization022.5%29.6%(G00780278)Source:Forecast:SemiconductorFoundryRevenue,SupplyandDemand,Worldwide,3Q2(G00780278)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION9©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved. 95% Supply/DemandSufficiencyweakdatacenterdemand.•SamsunghaschangedtacticswithaggresDRAMvendorsin2H2023compareinto2025asvendorSource:Forecast:DRAMMarketStatistics,SupplyandDemand,Worldwide,2020-2027,3Q23UpdSource:Forecast:NANDFlashMarketStatistics,SupplyandDemand,Worldwide,20RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION10©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.5.9%0MemoryRevenueForecast,3Q235.9%0Moresevereoversupplyleadstoweakerpricingandstrongerdownturnin2023-47.9%-38.2%$0.086$0.045$0.057$0.068$0.061$0.050-47.2%24.9%33.3%-13.7%66.3%40.8%-15.2%61.8%-32.6%13.5%-38.8%RevenueImpact(comparedto2Q23)--Source:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION11©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui2.EndMarketOutlookRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiSmartphone&PCDeclineContinuesin2023,RecoveryExpectedin2024Smartphoneunitproductionlowestsince2013amidinventorycorrection/reductiononthesupplysideSmartphoneUnitProduction(Bill2021202220232024202520262027Source:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION13©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.UnitProductionUnitProductionAnnual2021202220232024202520262027更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiImpactofHuawei’sNew5GSoCsThelocalbuiltadvancedchipswillimpactthecompetitivelandscapeinthemobileSoCmarketandfurthermoreAutomotive,etc.Automotive,etc.“mass”productioncapability.RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiWeaknessContinuesinServers,ProductionSlowsDownin2023UnitProductionAnnualGrowth202120222023202420252026Source:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION15©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.YoYGrowth GrowthinAcceleratorCardProductionDrivesDiscreteGPURevenuesYoYGrowth Source:SemiconductorsandElectronicsForecastDatabase,Worldwide,3Q23Update(G00780493)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION16©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.20232020252026202761%VehiclesProducedin2032WillStillHaveICEWerevisedsemiconductorrevenueintheelectrifiedpowertrainmarketin2032by$1.8billionduetothisassumptionchange.RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION17©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiGIISSTSlidesFurtherIntoNormalZonein3Q23InventoryReducesAcrosstheSupplyChainExcludingFoundriesDirectionalProjectionofInventoryIndexMovement,4Q23-2Q24DirectionalProjectInventoryInventoryIndexStatusandTrendSource:SemiconductorInventoryAnalysisWorldwide,3Q23UpdateInventoryIndexZones:SevereShortageModerateShortageNormalModerateSurplusSevereSurpInventoryIndexTrend:Directionofthearrowindicatesiftheinventoryindexwentup,camedown,orstayedstabledNote:3Q23isamodelledestimateandissubjecttochangebasedonactualfinancialstobereportedbyvendorsin4Q23.TheindexbaRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION18©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui3.GenerativeAIImpactonSemiconductorMarketsRESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiBy2028,GenerativeAIwillcreatenewmarketopportunitiesBy2028,GenerativeAIwillcreatenewmarketopportunitiesandalterfundamentallyhowsemiconductorsandelectronicsaredesignedHighBandwidthI/O&MemoryElectronicsDesignManufacturing&PackagingPowerDemandHighHighPerformanceComputeGenGenAISource:Top5SemiconductorMarketsImpactedbyGenerativeAI(G00798982)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION20©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuiGenerativeAIImpactonSemiconductorMarketsHighPerformanceComputeHighBandwidthI/O&MemoryManufacturing&PackagingPowerDemandsElectronicsDesignsemiconductorswillbeco-packagedSource:Top5SemiconductorMarketsImpactedbyGenerativeAI(G00798982)RESTRICTEDDISTRIBUTION21©2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shui2345GenerativeAIImpactandRecommendations234511HighPerformanceComputeHighBandwidthI/O&MemoryManufacturing&PackagingPowerDemandsElectronicsDesignaccelerators.Workloadacceleratorscounts,demandingleading-development(trainindevicestoscaleperfoSource:Top5SemiconductorMarketsImpactedbyGenerativeAI(G0079898