版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
Chapter9–SocialInsuranceI:SocialSecurityandUnemploymentInsurancePublicEconomics1SocialInsuranceProgramsGenerallyshare4characteristics:ParticipationismandatoryEligibilityandbenefitsdependonpriorcontributionsBenefitsbeginwithanidentifiableoccurrenceProgramsarenotmeans-tested2WhyhaveSocialInsurance?RecallthattheFirstWelfareTheoremconcludedthatprivatemarketsgenerallyworkwell.Onecriticaldifferenceininsurancemarketsisasymmetricinformation–onepartyhasinformationthatisnotavailabletotheotherparty.3WhyhaveSocialInsurance?Ifaprivatefirmoffersinsuranceandcannotobservethehighrisksfromthelowrisks,likelytogetagroupofbuyersthatisadversetoitsinterests.Adverseselection–Individualwhoknowsheisespeciallylikelytocollectbenefitswillhaveanespeciallyhighdemandforinsurance.4WhyhaveSocialInsurance?Inaperfectlycompetitiveinsurancemarket,expectedprofitswillbedrivendownto$0.Adverseselectioncouldleadtoinsuranceplanslosingmoney,andraisingthepremiumsonlyexacerbatestheadverseselectionproblem.5WhyhaveSocialInsurance?Howcangovernmentinterventionimproveefficiency?Socialinsuranceprogramsarecompulsory:theadverseselectionproblemisavoidedbecausethelowrisksareforcedtopurchasetheinsurancepolicyaswell.Intheprivatemarket,thelowriskswouldbelesslikelythanthehighriskstopurchasetheinsurancepolicy.6WhyhaveSocialInsurance?OtherjustificationsLackofForesight/PaternalismForexample,someindividualsdoapoorjobofplanningfortheirretirement.MoralHazard“Gamingthesystem”EconomizeonDecision-makingcostsIncomedistribution7StructureofSocialSecurityManydetailsofSocialSecuritylaidoutinthefollowingslides.OnemotivationforpresentingthesedetailsisthatvirtuallyallcollegestudentsareaffectbySocialSecurity,thus,itisimportanttounderstandthedetails.8StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsPay-as-you-goFinancingExplicittransfersBenefitstructureAgeatwhichbenefitsarewithdrawnRecipient’sfamilystatusFinancing9StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsPay-as-you-goFinancingBenefitsforcurrentretireescomefrompaymentsmadebycurrentworkers.Earlyrecipientsreceivedveryhighreturnsontheircontributions.10StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsExplicittransfersSupplementalSecurityIncome(SSI)wasenactedin1972,andisadministeredbytheSocialSecurityAdministration.Moreaccuratelyviewedasawelfareprogramratherthansocialinsurance.11StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsBenefitStructureAverageIndexedMonthlyEarnings–areanindividual’saveragewagesthroughouttheirworkinglife.AdjustedforinflationWagesuptoaceilingOnlyhighest35yearsofearnings12StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsOnlyhighest35yearsofearningscounttowardAIME.Considerapersonwithatypical“age-earnings”profile,whostartsworkatage22andretiresat67,andthereforehas45yearsoffull-timework.LikelythattheSocialSecuritytaxespaidfromages22-32willnotmatterforAIME.13StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsBenefitStructureConvertAIMEintoPrimaryInsuranceAmount(PIA)–basicbenefitpayabletoaworkwhoretiresatthe“normalretirementage.”Benefitscheduleisprogressive,wherelower-earnersreceiveahigherproportionofpreviousearnings.14ExampleofBenefitCalculation(using2004rules)AverageAIMEMaximumAIME$2,774$5,892PIAformula90percentofthefirst$612ofAIME$550.80$550.8032percentofAIMEover$612andthrough$3,689691.84984.6415percentofAIMEover$3,6890.00330.45
Total1,242.641,865.89PIA1,242.601,865.8015StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsTypicallow-earnerwhoretiredin2003received64%ofAIME.Averageearnerreceived48%Highearnerreceived40%.16StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsAgeatwhichbenefitsarewithdrawnThenormalretirementageistheageatwhichanindividualqualifiesforfullSocialSecuritybenefits.Canretireasearlyasage62,butbenefitsarescaleddown.Benefitsarescaledupforretirementafterthenormalage.17StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsNormalretirementageisbeingratchetedupfrom65to67foryoungergenerations.Implicitlyabenefitcut.18RetirementAgeisIncreasingYearofbirthNormalretirementage1937andprior65193865and2months193965and4months194065and6months194165and8months194265and10months1943-5466195566and2months195666and4months195766and6months195866and8months195966and10months1960andlater6719StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsRecipient’sfamilystatusForasingleworkerwhoretiresatthenormalretirementage,themonthlybenefitequalsPIA.Aworkerwithadependentspouse(orchild)mayreceiveanadditional50%ofthePIA.20StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsOtherdetailsUpto85%ofthebenefitscanbetaxedbyindividualswhoseincomeexceedcertainthresholds.Benefitsareindexedforinflation.Veryfewfinancialassetsofferthiskindofprotectionagainstinflation.Earningstestforretireeswhohavenotreachedthenormalretirementage.21StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsFinancingPayrolltaxisaflatpercentageofanemployee’sannualgrosswagesuptoacap.Currently,theSocialSecuritypartofthepayrolltaxissplitequallybetweenemployerandemployee,witheachpaying6.2%ofgrosswages.Likelythatmuchoftheemployertaxisshiftedtoemployeesintheformoflowerwages.22StructureofSocialSecurity:
BasicComponentsFinancingPayrolltaxandthecaphaveincreaseddramaticallyovertime.InadditiontothecumulativeSocialSecuritypayrolltaxof12.4%,thereisalsoanuncappedMedicaretaxof2.9%,resultinginacumulativetaxof15.3%.23SocialSecurityTaxesareCappedMaximumEarningsTaxable:200220032004SocialSecurity(OASDIonly)$84,900$87,000$87,900MaximumTaxWithheld$5,263.80$5394$5,449.80Medicare(HIonly)NoLimitNoLimitNoLimit24StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesSomepeoplebenefitmorethanothersfromSocialSecurityGiventhecomplexityoftheprogram,howdoeconomistsfigureoutwhowinsandwholoses?25StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesSimulatelifetimenetbenefitsfordifferentrepresentativeindividualsSocialSecurityWealth:LifetimevalueofSocialSecuritybenefits,discountedtopresentLifetimecostsofbeinginthesystem–payrolltaxes.SeeTable9.326Table9.327StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesConclusionsfromTable9.3:SocialSecurityredistributesacrossincomegroupsSocialSecurityredistributesacrossgenerations28StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesSocialSecurityredistributesinotherwaysaswell,manyofwhichmaybeunintended.Lifeexpectancyvariesby:Race,gender,smokingstatusSocialSecurityredistributestogroupswithhigherlifeexpectancies29StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesSocialSecurityalsoredistributesbylivingarrangementsduetothe50%PIAadjustment.Considerbenefitsforthreehouseholds:SingleIndividualMarried,1earnerMarried,2earners30StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesMarriedcoupleswithuncoveredspousesgainrelativetosinglepeoplebecauseofthe50%PIAadjustment.Marriedcoupleswithuncoveredspousesgainrelativetomarriedcoupleswithtwoearners.IfthesecondaryearnerwouldhaveasufficientlylowPIA(e.g.,PIA2issmallrelativetoPIA1),thenthehigherPIA(PIA1)entirelydeterminesthebenefit.AllofthepayrollcontributionsforPIA2inthiscasearetaxedaway.31StructureofSocialSecurity:
DistributionalIssuesEconomicstatusoftheAgedElderlyusedtobearelativelydisadvantagedgroupElderlynowhavelowerpovertyratesthantheaveragehousehold32EffectsonEconomicBehaviorSavingbehaviorRetirementdecisions33EffectsonEconomicBehavior:SavingbehaviorLife-cycletheoryofsavingsstatesthatconsumptionandsavingsdecisionsarebasedonlifetimeconsiderations.Generallywantto“consumption-smooth”Thus,shouldsaveduringworkingyearswhenincomeishigh,anddissaveduringretirementyearswhenincomeislow.34EffectsonEconomicBehavior:SavingbehaviorSocialSecurityaffectstheseincentivesWealthsubstitutioneffect:Householdsviewthegovernmentasdoingsomeofthissavingforthem(↓S)Retirementeffect:SocialSecuritymayinducepeopletoretireearlier,thusmoreperiodsofretirementtofinance(↑S)Bequesteffect:SocialSecurityredistributesfromtheyoungtotheold,andparentsmayoffsetthiswithlargerbequests(↑S)35EffectsonEconomicBehavior:SavingbehaviorNeteffectofSocialSecurityonpersonalsavingsdecisionsisambiguous.EmpiricalworkfindsthatSocialSecurityincreasesconsumptionandreducessavings(e.g.,thewealthsubstitutioneffectdominates).CalculationssuggestSocialSecurityreducedpersonalsavingsfrom$744to$296billion.Hugenegativeimpact36EffectsonEconomicBehavior:RetirementdecisionsDramaticfallinlaborforceparticipationamongmenover65In1930,54%inlaborforce.In2001,18%inlaborforceManyfactorsmayhavecontributedtothis,includingSocialSecurity37EffectsonEconomicBehavior:RetirementdecisionsSocialSecurity’sadjustmentstobenefitscreateincentivestoretireat65Althoughthebenefitsareadjustedupwardafterthat,theadjustmentsareactuariallyunfair.Ageatwhichbenefitsarefirstavailablehasanimportanteffectonlikelihoodofretirement.38Long-TermStressesonSocialSecurityGivenitscurrentpay-as-you-gostructure,SocialSecurityisfinanciallyunstable.Instablesystem,benefitsreceivedequalspaymentscollected.Wecandecomposethesetwoparts.39Long-TermStressesonSocialSecurityBenefitsreceived:Paymentscollected:WhereNb=numberofretirees,B=averagebenefitperretiree,t=taxrate,Nw=numberofworkers,andw=averagewageperworker40Long-TermStressesonSocialSecurityForsolvency,wemusthave:Orrearranging:Thefirsttermontherighthandsideisthedependencyratio,andthesecondtermisthereplacementratio.41Long-TermStressesonSocialSecurityDependencyratiohasbeengoingdownbecauseofanagingpopulation.Currently3workersperretireeBy2030,0.5workersperretireeOnlywaytokeepsystemstablewouldbetoincreasetaxesorlowerbenefits.42SocialSecurityReformTweakthecurrentsystemRaisepayrolltax,increaseretirementagePrivatize
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 2024-2034年中国医用平板探测器行业市场发展现状及投资策略咨询报告
- 幼儿园中班保育安全工作计划
- 电子设备制造业产能过剩与竞争格局分析研究
- 幼儿园理发店游戏案例分析报告
- 2024-2030年填缝剂市场发展现状分析及行业投资战略研究报告
- 技术对社会保障和福利服务的影响
- 2024-2030年地下采矿装载机行业市场现状供需分析及重点企业投资评估规划分析研究报告
- 2024-2030年国有银行行业市场深度分析及竞争格局与投资发展研究报告
- 2024-2030年国内针织行业市场发展现状及竞争格局与投资机会研究报告
- 机器学习在计数仪表中的预测分析
- 高中学业水平合格考试通用技术试题汇编
- 《郝万山讲伤寒论》完整文字版
- 运维保密协议
- 2024年九省联考新高考 英语试卷(含答案)
- 电子信息与通信工程专业英语译文及习题答案
- 分析实验室用水课件
- 旅游规划与开发(第五版)课件 第九章 旅游公共服务体系规划
- 初中数学校本教材(完整版)
- 假货起诉状模板
- 工程伦理课件
- 人工智能教育的发展与应用培训课件
评论
0/150
提交评论