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capgwwueng·neerin9
DRAW
ME
A
FUTURE
"Thesecretofchangeistofocusallofyourenergy,notonfightingtheold,butonbuildingthenew"
Howcanweproduceasmuchcleanenergyas
weneed?Canwetransitiontoacircular
economyandfreeourselvesfromresource
scarcity?Isthereaplaceforhumanworkersinindustry5.0?WillAIbecomeintelligentfor
real?Isthemetaverseafantasyorareality?
Thesearejustsomeofthechallenging
questionsthatengineeringandtechnology
leadersarewrestlingwith.Theanswersthey
findwillshapetheworldof2030andtheworldourchildrenandgrandchildrenwillinherit.
Engineering,thecreativeandpractical
applicationofscienceandmathematicstobringaboutadesiredchangeintherealworld,ontimeandtobudget,isexperiencingagoldenage.Thereponsibilityofthoseinleadershippositions
hasneverbeenmorecrucial.
AsengineeringandR&Dpartnertosomeofthemostinnovativecompaniesand
organizationsontheplanet,weareprivileged
toplayapartintheseincredible
transformationaljourneys.Thisbookcontains
anexcerptofsomeofthemosttransformative
movesatplayandtheassociatedchallenges
thattheworld'smostbrilliantandtalented
engineersareworkingontoday.Ouraimis
neithertoprovideanexhaustiveinventorynor
ahierarchyofalltheinnovationchallengesof
ourtime.Instead,weaimtoofferasnapshot
ofthebreadthanddiversityofthe
technologicalquestionsfacingthecurrent
generationofindustryleaders.Combining
insightandillustrationsontwenty-ninetopics,
wehopethebookwilleducate,entertainand
inspireyoutogetthefutureyouwant.
Therehasneverbeenamoreexcitingtimeto
beanengineerortechnologist,andaswesay
atCapgeminiEngineering,it'stimeforallofus
tothinkbig,bebold,andhavefun.
_FrédéricArquier
ChiefMarketingOfficer,
CapgeminiEngineering
Whybuildingthecirculareconomy isthenoblestof allengineering challenges
MostofusarefamiliarwiththethreeR's-
reduce,reuse,recycle.Buttacklingclimate
changeandbiodiversitylossneedsustogo
beyondexistingleanandgreenpracticestoamorecomprehensiveapproach,wherewasteiseliminated,resourcesarere-circulated,and
natureisregenerated.Thesearesomeoftheprinciplesofthecirculareconomy,anditis
criticaltoourfuture.
Thecirculareconomycreatesvalue,allows
development,andenablesaccesstogoodsandenergyforall.Itisnotaquestionofdegrowthbutefficiency;itisaboutproducingand
consumingdifferentlytoexploitourplanet'sfiniteresources.Nothingislost;everythingistransformed.Itisunderpinnedbyatransitiontorenewableenergiesandmaterials.
Thisneweconomicmodelimpliessharing,leasing,reusing,repairing,refurbishing,andrecyclingexistingmaterialsandproducts.
Whiletheconceptissimple,its
implementationiscomplex.Itrequires
behaviouralchange,thedevelopmentofnewdesignprinciples,andthecreationof
synergizedindustrialvaluechains.
Toscaletheircirculareconomypractices,
Buildingthisnewcirculareconomyneedsa
Redesigningproductsiswhat
organizationsmustembracecirculardesign
systemofsystemsapproachandassociated
engineerslivefor.In2008,
principlesandnewbusinessmodels.
decision-makingtools,relyingontransparent
oneofourteamsappliedfor
Organizationscanpushtheircircularinitiativesforwardbyrethinkingtheirvalueandsupply
datasharedbyacriticalmassofactorsacrossmultipleindustries,banks,andgovernmentsto
theirfirstpatent.
chainsandcollaboratingmorewithintheir
actinacommondirection.
ecosystemsandwithgovernments,lawmakers,
academics,thinktanks,suppliers,vendors,
Whilethischangecanseemoverwhelmingat
clients,andinnovativestartups.Tobuildupthe
first,itisoneofthemostexcitingandnoblest
neweconomicsatscale,theymustaligna
engineeringchallenges.Redesigningproducts
multiplicityofactors.
iswhatengineerslivefor.In2008,oneofourteamsappliedfortheirfirstpatent.Itwas
inspiredbythediscoveryofthecradle-to-cradleconceptandisoneofourproudestachievements.
Willquantumcomputersmaketheimpossiblepossible?
Mostpeoplewillhaveatleastseenaheadlineortwointhenewsabout
Atpresent,quantumcomputers
quantumcomputingbreakthroughsinthelastfewyears.Thistechnology
arelimitedinthenumberof
offersthepromiseofunprecedentedcomputingperformanceforcertain
operationstheycanperform
industry-relevanttasksinsimulation,machinelearning,and
withouterrorsaccumulating,
optimization.
whichgreatlylimitstheirutility
Today,quantumhardwareisstillnascent,withsignificantengineering
challengestoovercomebeforecommercialadoption.Quantum
computersusequantumbits,orqubits,toperformcalculationsusing
quantumalgorithms,someofwhichofferanexponentialadvantageover
algorithmsonconventionalcomputers.Acentralchallengeisimproving
thequalityofthequbits.Atpresent,quantumcomputersarelimitedin
thenumberofoperationstheycanperformwithouterrorsaccumulating,
whichgreatlylimitstheirutility.Beyondquality,thereisalsoaneedto
increasescale-thenumberofqubitsthatcanbeusedforcomputing-
andthespeedofoperationalsoneedtobeincreasedtoenablethe
widespreadapplication.
Theinceptionofquantumcomputinggoesbacksomefourdecades,soitwouldbetemptingtothinkofitasatechnologyalwaysonthehorizon.Butwithtoday'ssmall-scalequantumcomputersnowavailableinthe
cloudforresearchandcommercialevaluation,andwithsustained
exponentialgrowthinthetechnologyprojectedovertheyearsahead,it's
easytoseewhymanythinkthiswillbethedecadethatquantumcomputingwillcomeofage.
Ourabilitytousemachinestocomputehasprofoundlyimpactedour
lives.Itspanseverythingfromthemoonlandingstopresent-dayAI
systemsbeingabletoanswerourquestionsalmostasconvincinglyasif
theywerehuman,andeverythinginbetween.Forallthatcomputers
toucheveryaspectofourlivestoday,wehaveyettoreachthepinnacle
ofeverythingweneedcomputerstodoforus.Wearenotevenclose.Butthecomingquantumcomputingrevolutionwillbefeltacrossall
industries.Wewillfocusonafewareasimpactingeveryone,suchasanewfoundappreciationofhealthcare.Wearefortunatethatthe
breakthroughinvaccinesandtreatmentscameattherighttimeandhad
arealimpact.Theyhadbeenyearsorevendecadesofscientificdevelopmentinthemaking.
Forallthatcomputerstouch
everyaspectofourlivestoday,wehaveyettoreachthe
pinnacleofeverythingweneedcomputerstodoforus
Butwehaveanageingpopulationandfacemanydiseasesforwhichwedonothavecuresorevenmuchinthewayofeffectivetreatments.The
drugdiscoveryprocessexploresvastnumbersofpotentialdrug
molecules,butthisissometimesnotenoughtofindapromisingleadforanewdrug.Ifcomputerscouldaccuratelysimulatetheimpactofnovel
chemistryonhumanbiology,then-incombinationwithmaturingAI
approaches-theycouldpushdrugdiscoveryintoaneweraoffinding
bettertherapeuticsmorequicklyatreducedcost.Thisabilitytosimulatedowntothelevelisoneofthepromisesofquantumcomputing,and
CapgeminiEngineeringiscurrentlyleadingresearchincollaborationwithpharmaceuticalindustrypartners.
Healthcareisnottheonlypressingissueweface.Theneedforclimate
actionisimmediate,butthejourneywillbelong,andmanyemerging
technologieswillplayanimportantroleintheyearsahead.Oneofthe
challengesisfeedingagrowingpopulation.Fertilizersandmodern
farmingallowedustoachievefourtimesthecropyieldsatthestartof
thelastcentury.Butfertilizerisresponsiblefor3-5%ofglobalnatural
gasusage*,whichtranslatestoaround40%ofthecarbonfootprintofaloafofbread.Legumessuchaspeas,beans,andcloverhelpfixnitrogeninthesoilwithoutthisvastenergycost.Wedon'tunderstandthenaturalcatalystswhichhaveevolvedtomakethispossiblebecausetoday's
computerscannotsimulatethemwithoutapproximations.However,
quantumcomputingcouldholdthekeytounlockingthesesecretsandenableustoengineernewprocessesforsustainableagriculture.Itmayalsoimpactthedesignofsolarcellsandbatteries.
Thepotentialimpactofquantumcomputingspansmanymoreareas,
fromoptionspricinginfinancialservicestosimulationintheautomotiveandaerospaceindustries.Whetheritbepricingnewfinancialproductsandmanagingriskordevelopinganewgenerationofmaterialsthatwecannotsimulatetoday,oneday,thetechnologywillbecomeroutine.
Ultimately,quantumcomputingwillnotjustbeaboutbeingfasterormoreaccurate,butaboutmakingtheimpossiblepossible.
Quantumcomputingcould
holdthekeytounlocking
thesesecretsandenable
ustoengineernew
processesforsustainable
agriculture
*Source:InternationalEnergyAgency,Gas2020
PerAsperaadAstra*
TherocketagemayhavestartedinChinainthe12thcenturywith
cardboardandpowder,butitwasonlyin1944thattheGermanV2rocketprogrammelaunchedthefirsteverobjecttoreachthe100kmaltitude
consideredtobethelimitbetweenatmosphereandspace.Theageoforbitalflightbeganin1957withSputnik1pavingthewaytotheorbitallaunchgoldenyearsthatemergedinthe70s:aperiodofpioneers
dominatedbygovernmentalinstitutions.
Itwasin2010withSpaceXthatthelaunchworldenteredanew
commercialerawithhighproductioncadencesandafocusonreliabilityandcostmetrics.Thelaunchpriceof$k/perkilodecreasedby40%andcontinuestofall.
PrivateactorslikeSpaceXandBlueOriginareshakingthewell-
establishedplaygroundofinstitutions.Intheheavyweightcategory,
FalconHeavywillsoonbereplacedbyStarship,andNewGlennwillarrivesoonerratherthanlater.Ariane6willbelaunchedattheendof2023
withamodularandreusablefleet,theNESTSinitiativehasplansforspacetransportforupto2050,andArianeUltimateisalreadyonthedrawingboard.
Butthelaunchrevolutionraceisspeedingup.Modularandreusable
launchersarealreadyconsideredyesterday'stechnology;nanoandcube-sat(10cmx10cmx10cm)satelliteshaveappeared,andwhatwasonce
called“newspace”hasnowbeenreplacedwith“fastspace”.
Soonsolidpropulsionrocketswithbigburningplumeswillbenomorethanchildhoodmemories.AevumhasdesignedRavnX,anautonomousreusabledronethatlookslikeanairfighterandcanlaunch500kg
satellitesinLowEarthOrbit(LEO:between500kmand2,000km).Atthesametime,otherfastspacecompaniessuchasLatitudearedesigning
mini-rocketslikeZephyr,a17m-longrocketabletolaunchnanosatellites
abovea600kmaltitude.Thefirstlaunchisplannedfor2025.California-basedstart-upSpinLaunchhasspenttenyearsdevelopingacatapultthatwillenablefrequentlauncheswithlessenvironmentaldamage.
SpinLaunchconducteditsfirsttestatNewMexico'stestpadinOctober2021.
NewZealand'sRocketLab,foundedin2006,hasdevelopedElectron,arocketcapableofputtinga300kgsatelliteintoLEOforacostofUS$7.5million.Electronincorporatesmanydesigninnovations,including3D
printingandhigh-densitybatteries,topoweritselectropumps,whichfeedpropellantintoitscombustionchambers.RocketLabhas500
employeesandhaslaunchedmorethan100satellites.Ithasrecentlyannouncedthedevelopmentofanewandmorepowerfulrocket:
Neutron.
Willthelauncherofthefuturebemonostagewithlowcarbonimpact,
withanuclearcell,catapulted,hydrogen,orhybrid?Willitself-destruct
orcomeback?Therewillbenewlaunchmethods,newlaunchers,andnoburningplumesinthefuture.Thatwillbethevisioninlessthanadecade.Researchisnotonlyfocusingonsystemsandproducts,butalsoon
propulsion.
Thereisnoone-size-fits-allsolution.Weexpectanad-hocmixofdifferentapproachesdependingontheorbit(LowEarthOrbit,Medium,orbeyond)andforhuman-crewedoruncrewedmissions.Forexample,usinga
catapultlauncherfornanosatellitesbutnotforhuman-crewedmissions.Forlong-distancemissionslikeMars,solutionsintheworksinclude
preparedhubsorgatewaysthatcanbeusedforreloadingorspacetugsthatwillputtheobjectonthecorrecttrajectory.
Thespaceracehaschangedsignificantlyinthe21stcentury.Now,playersfocusonspeed,affordability,sustainability,andreliabilityratherthanthenumberofachievements.Theoldsayingperasperaadastraistrueofthenewspacebusiness.Evenifthespaceconquestisarduous,wewillreachthestars,andmaythebestrocketwin.
…AdAstra
*Throughhardshiptothestars
Howdoyousecurecommunicationsinthe Quantumage?
Morethanever,communicationhasbecomeacriticalaspectofourdailylives.Fromthesimplestofbusinessesrelyingonanonlinepresencetoprosper,topeoplemakingpurchasesatasupermarket,tofriendsand
familycommunicatingthroughsocialmedia,tremendousinformationtransferoccurseverysecond.Protectingthisever-increasingamountofinformation,oneofthemostvaluableresourcesintheworld,isever
morecriticalandcomplex.
Public-keyinfrastructureisusedtodistributekeysthatprotectalmostalldatatransferredovertheinternet.Thecryptographythatunderpinsthesecurityofthisinfrastructureisbasedonmathematicalproblemsthat
are,forallpracticalpurposes,infeasibletosolve,evenwithsubstantialcomputationalcapabilityandtime.However,quantumcomputers
threatentomakethecurrentkeydistributiontechniquesobsolete.Sobetterwaysofkeepinginformationsecureareneeded.Muchoftoday’sencrypteddataisvulnerabletointercept-now-decrypt-laterattacks,
potentiallyjeopardizingbusinessandgovernmentalsecrets.
Thelawsofquantumphysicsallowfornewcommunicationtechnologieswithenhancedsecurityproperties.Quantumkeydistribution(QKD),themostimportantcurrentcandidateapproach,enablesdistantpartiesto
producesecretkeysbysharingquantumsystemswithspecificproperties.
Unlikepublic-keybasedtechniques,wheresecurityisderivedfrom
computationalhardnessconjectures,inQKD,theuncertaintyprinciple–whichlimitsonetoaccessonlycertaininformationaboutphysical
systems;andentanglement–atypeofphysicalcorrelationthatonlyexistsinthequantumworld,providesecurityevenagainstanall-
powerful(computationally)adversary.
Reliablysharingquantumsystemsoverlongdistancesisthemostcriticalchallengeinthecurrentquantumcommunicationtechnologylandscape.Quantumsystems,typicallyintheformofphotons,areprecisely
manipulatedintermsofpolarization,phase,etc.,beforetransmission
throughquantumcommunicationchannelsconsistingofopticalfibersforshortranges,andfreespacesatelliteslinksforlongdistances.Devices
likequantumrepeaters,placedinbetweencommunicatingparties,willplayanessentialroleindevelopinglong-rangequantumchannels.
Theintegrationofthesetechnologiesintoexistingnetwork
infrastructurehasalreadybegun.Moreover,researchisbeingdone
towardsquantum-basedservicesbeyondQKD,suchasE-voting,secretsharing,digitalsignatures,andsecuremultipartycomputation(apotentcryptographictoolthatprovideswaysformultiplepartiestoperform
jointcomputationsontheirprivateinputs,withaguaranteethattheirindividualinputsstayhiddenduringthecomputation).
Everyadvancegetsus
closertoaninterconnectedworldinwhichallour
communicationsare
protectedthrough
quantum-generatedkeys
Everyadvancebringsusclosertoaninterconnectedworldinwhichallourcommunicationsareprotectedthroughquantum-generatedkeys.Once
wehaveaccesstosuchquantuminternet,withtheadvancesoftraditionalcommunicationsystemsandtheadventoftheInternetofThings,wewillliveinaworldwhereallpeopleandtheirdevicesareconstantly
communicatingamongthemselvessecurely.Ironically,thisrobustaddedlayerofsecurityisprovidedbythetiniestofparticles,whichisabeautifulthingtothinkabout!
Whatisstoppingusfromhaving flyingcars?
Twosignificantchallengesaredisruptingthe
aviationsector:theurgentneedforzero
emissionsandtheunstoppableshifttowards
connectingcitiesandunservedregionslackingpropergroundinfrastructure(railorroads).Weareenteringthemostexcitingchapterin
aviationsincethedawnofthejetage.Itwillbemarkedbyeye-catchingandrevolutionary
alternativestoaerialmobility.
Fordecades,wehavedreamedabouthoppingbetweencitieswithpersonal“flyingcars.”Butmovingfromavisiontoaviablealternativetocurrenttransportationsolutionsisabigstep.ThefundamentaltechnologiestoenableinnercityhopsinsmallVTOL(verticaltakeoffand
landing)aircraftmustbereadytoscaleand
operatesafely.Combustionengineswere
nevergoingtounderpinaircraftthatcouldrunsilentlyoratapricetagthatwouldappealtothemasses.Helicoptershaveflownabove
citiesfordecades,butthehighnoisepollution,
greenhouseemissions,andoperatingcostspreventedthemfrombecomingviable
alternativesforeverydaycommutes.
Today’sacceleratedgrowthinbattery
technologies,coupledwiththeadventof
distributedelectricpropulsion,autonomous
software,andenhancedpassenger
experiences,haveenabledthere-designof
aerialvehiclesfromsquareone.Wefinallyhavethetechnologiestodeliveralmostsilent,zero-emission,andaffordableairtaxioperations.
Theelectricaerialrevolutionisinprogress.Inadecade,itwillbecommonplacetoseeflyingairtaxishoppingfromcitytocityandunmanneddronesdeliveringgroceriesinminutes.
MostadvancedmanufacturersarerunningtrialsandtestingmultipleelectricVTOL
architecturesandapplications,gathering
valuabledataonsystemreliabilityandflightperformance.
Nonetheless,the“road”aheadislongand
complex.Safetystandardsforcommercial
aircraftarestringent,andweexpectthemtobeevenstricterforurbanairmobility.The
mostcriticalhurdlemanufacturersmust
overcomeincertifyingtheaircraftisaprocessthatdemonstrateshowtheaircraftmeets
EASA/FAAsafetyrequirements.Eachaircraft’scomponentmustbedesignedand
manufacturedtocomplywiththesestandards.
Unlikeconventionalaircraftorhelicopters,
novelelectricVTOLaircrafthavenumerous
innovationsanddesignchoicesincompatible
withexistingregulations.Toaccelerate
conventionalcertificationprocesses,additionalconsiderationsmightarise,suchas:
—
Whatwillittaketodemonstratethatthesenewaircraftarchitecturesareatleastassafeas
commercialaviation?
—
Canadigitalizedcertificationworkflowmaintain
therequiredtraceabilityfromregulatory
airworthinesstoevidencecompliance,enablingautomatedVTOLtestcasegenerationand
systemstrade-offanalysis?
—
Candata-drivenmachinelearningautomatetestscenariogeneration?Canevidencegenerationbeacceleratedbyconductingreal-worldtestsinasdata-richamanneraspossible?
Weareconvincedthatby2030,flyingin
electricVTOLaircraftwillbepartofourdaily
habits;thischangewillbeahugestepforwardtowardfullsustainabilityforthewholeaviationindustry.Combinedwithautonomous
transportation,advancedairmobilitywillsoonenablegreener,connectedcitieswheretrafficcongestionisamerememory.
Movingfromcombustionenginestoelectricpropulsionisanessentialsteptoward
sustainability,andwearewellonthepathto
gettingthere.Electricairtaxisareonlythefirst
stepforamuchwiderjourneythatwillseeaviationreachitsemissionsgoalsand
eventuallybringbackcommercialsupersonictravel.However,thistimesupersonicwillbeelectric.
Canweturnoffthelightsin factories?
“Lightsout”manufacturingisusedfor
manufacturingprocesseswherefactoriesrunautonomouslywithouthumanintervention.Thetermisquiteliteral,withproduction
occurringfreeofhumannecessitieslike
lightingorheating,ventilation,andair
conditioning(HVAC).FamousSci-Finovelist
PhilipK.Dickfirstreferredtoitinhis“Autofac”shortstoryin1955.
Therehaslongbeenapromiseofasmart.
everything-can-dofuture.Ontheotherhand,it’shardformanymanufacturerstolook
aroundanexistingfacilityandimaginethatitcouldonedaybetransformedintoafactoryofthefuture–whetherlights-outorotherwisedata-intensivetoreachnewproduction
efficienciesandqualityofoutput.
But,withtheadventofArtificialIntelligenceandthedigitalizationoftheshopfloor,thisislikelytomakeitswayfromfictiontorealityinthecomingyears.However,althoughan
increasingnumberofstepsandmanufacturingprocesseshavebecomethewaytoturnthe
lightsoffisstillfullofchallengesandpitfalls.
Thenumberonetechnologicalcornerstoneinreachingthisstageofcompleteproduction
automationrevolvesarounddata.Datais
everywhereinthefactory:fromCAD/CAM,
PLM,andsimulationsystemstosensorsattheendofthemanufacturingline.Butmuchofthisdataisunstructured.Toturnbigdatainto
actionablesmartdata,itmustbeaggregatedandcontextualized.Thisstructureconnectsdatapointswiththeirmeaningsothatdigitaltoolscanbeusedto
detecttrendsandidentifyproblemareas.
Insightslikeareasofhighdowntimefora
specificmachine,toomanyoperatorerrors,
productbuildorsupplyissues,longleadtimesduetooperator-intensivemonotonouswork,
oranoverabundanceofnon-valueadd
activitiesbecomevisiblewhenmanufacturingdataisharnessed,organized,andevaluated.
Dataisnotbeingusedtoitsfullpotentialbutinisolation,though.Inmanyfactories,variousdepartmentsworkonsystemsthatarenot
interconnected.Thismeans,forexample,thataqualityissuedetectedinawork-in-progress(WIP)onthefactoryfloorisdifficulttoconnecttoavariationinthepropertiesofanincomingcomponentorrawmaterialthatmayhave
causedtheWIPproblem.
So,thejourneytolights-outandotherhigh-
efficiencyproductionschemesbeginswith
somethingalreadypresentinmanufacturingoperations:data.Connectingitacrosssystemsandwithmeaningfulconceptsoftentakestheformofadigitaltwin:aninteractive,virtual
representationofaphysicalproductor
process.Digitaltwinsenableengineerstoexplorealternativeapproachesandwhat-ifscenariosbeforetheytaketheplungewithsignificantcapitalinvestments.Digital
manufacturingtoolsandthedigitaltwinare
designedtoreplicateautonomousprocessesinthevirtualrealm,wheretheycanbeoptimizedbeforedeployment.
Inanutshell,thetechnologiesalreadyexisttoautomatefurtherthemanufacturingofgoods,butarewereadyasasociety?
Aswitheverysuchdigitaltransformation
movement,thepoweroftoolsisnottheonlynorthemostcriticalsuccessfactorofchange.Culturalchangeinsidecompaniesandbroadersocietyisfarmoreessentialandistwo-sided.
Ontheonehand,automationwillreplacecurrentproductionjobsandlessqualifiedworkers,threateningoursocialclasseswithdisplacementandoursocietieswithunrest.
Ontheotherhand,adoptingsuchlights-outfactorieswillcreatetheneedfornewjobs
aroundmanufacturing.Awholefamilyofnewpositionsandskillsislikelytoemergeinthe
design,planning,control,monitoring,and
maintenanceofsuchautonomousproductionsites.
Howwillcompaniesandpublicpowers
accompanythisshifttowardsaneweconomicorganization?Asinmanycases,technologywillsucceedatscaleifitisperceivedasatoolforhumans,notifitresultsinathreattothem.
ThefutureofAI: superdeep learningorrealworldreasoning?
ArtificialIntelligenceandMachineLearningarenotnewfields;they’vebeenaroundlonger
thanmostpeoplerealize.Rightnow,though,they’reatahugelycriticaljuncture,withthenextdecadepossiblybeingoneofthemostsignificantintheirhistory.
Fromwatchingthemediaoverthelastfew
years,you’dbeforgivenforthinkingthatAI
wasnowasolvedproblem,astherehavebeenmanystoriesofimpressiveAIsystems
outperforminghumans.Ifthat’strue,though,wherearealltherobots?Whereisthesuper-intelligentAIthatwillsolvealltheworld’s
problems?
ThemoreboringtruthisthatAIhassolved
someverynarrowproblemsinverynarrow
ways.Theseareextremelyimpressivefeatsofengineeringbut,forthemostpart,arenot
intelligentandrarelysurvivefirstcontactwiththeinfinitecomplexityoftherealworld.ThishasledtoalacklusteradoptionofAIacross
industry,withthesecleverbutfragileAI
solutionsdeployedonlyinnarrowlydefinedlow-riskusecases.
Thiscommercialrealitycontrastsstarklywiththehigh-profilepicturepaintedinthepopularmedia,whichseemstoshowimpressivefeatsofintelligence,fromapparentlysentientAI
languagemodelstogallery-worthygenerativeartworks.However,theseremarkablefeatsarejusttheresultofadecadeofrapidprogress
usingartificialneuralnetworks.Inrecentyears,wehavemasteredtheartofcreatinghuge
machinelearningmodelswhichcansowhollyandprofoundlyidentifythepatternspresentinspecificdatasetsthattheycanpredicttheir
outputsormanipulatetherelationshipsinthedataatwilltoproduceendlesscreative
variantsfromit.
Thisrealizationthatscalealonecanproduce
intelligent-lookingresultshasbeenoneofthedrivingfactorsinAIoverthelastdecade.Thisphilosophyisbehindoneofthetwomajor
factionsemergingwithinAI,wheresome
peoplebelievethattrueintelligencewill
emergeifonlywecouldmakethemodelsbigenough.Othersbelievetheselargemodelsarenothingmorethanglorifiedcurvefitting–a
statisticalmimicryofintelligencethatcan’t
extrapolatebeyonditstrainedexperience.Thissecondfactionbelievesthattrueintelligencecanonlycomefromsystemsthatexplicitly
reasonaboutreal-worldconcepts(so-called“symbolmanipulation”),developingatruegeneralintellectratherthanjustcopying
patternsofbehaviorfromotherintelligentbeings.
Thedebateragesonbetweenthetwocamps,buttherealityisthatbothareprobablyright
tosomeextent,an
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