ubs-全球天然气-库存仍很高

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab10May2024

GlobalGas

Slowerinjectionsbutstoragesremainedhigh

Europeangasstorage:backtoinjectionswithmilderweather

Europeangasstorageutilisationamountedto63%or64bcmasof8May,abovethe5-yearaverageof43%andvs63%asofthepreviousweek.Netinjectionsof0.3bcmobservedinthepastweekcamebelow5-yearaverageof2.1bcmand0.9bcmobservedlastweek,asalargewithdrawalon8MayobservedinGermanyoffsetinjectionsintherestofEurope.(AGSI,UBS)

USgasstocks:wellabovehistoricalaverage

TheEIAreportedgasinundergroundstoragewasup79Bcfw/wto2,563Bcfasof3May,belowconsensusof+85Bcf,coming33%abovethe5-yearaverage(1,923Bcf).Storageutilisationwas60%,vsthe5-yearaverageof42%(ofdemonstratedpeakcapacity).TotalUSnatgassupplystayedbroadlyflatw/w,but3%belowcomparedtothesametimeayearago.Ondemand,totalUSnatgasdemand(incl.exports)wasflatw/wasincreasedgas-for-powerandslightlyhigherexportdemandweremorethanoffsetbylowerindustrialandresidential/commercial.(EIA,DataStream)

Equities

Global

Energy

NayoungKim

Analyst

nayoung.kim@

+44-20-75684010

HenriPatricot,CFA

Analyst

henri.patricot@

+33-14-8883033

JoshuaStone

Analyst

joshua.stone@

+44-20-79015588

JoshSilverstein

Analyst

josh.silverstein@

+1-212-7133513

JapanLNGstocks:smallwithdrawalbyutils

Japan'sMETIreportedthatLNGstocksheldbyutilitiessawasmallwithdrawal,downby

0.2bcmw/wto2.7bcmasof5May,asrisingtemperaturehasraisedpowerdemand.In

April,thecountry'sLNGimportsdeclinedby9%m/mbutroseby9%y/yto7.4bcm.We

haveseenalittlereboundinLNGimportsinMaytodatefromthepreliminarydatawith

increasingcoolingdemand(METI,DataStream).

EuropeanandAsianpricesinrange-bound;USgaspriceuponslowerinjections

EuropeanandAsiangaspricesweretradedinanarrowrangearoundthelow-€30s/the

mid-$10sasrisingtemperatureinthenorthernhemisphereandsupplyconcernsoffset

comfortablestorages.SomeLNGbuyersinAsiahavepickedupLNGimportstoprepare

summercoolingseason,whileEuropeanLNGimportsremainedslowduetohigh

inventoriesandweakdemand.Wesawtheeasingofsupply-sideconcerns,witha

recoveryinfeedgastoFreeport,aresumptionofAustralia'sGorgonLNGandareturnof

unplanned/plannedoutagesinNorway.Butmarketbalanceremainsfragileamidlimited

sparecapacity.IntheUS,HenryHubpricesroseby5%to$2.3/Mbtuduetolower-than-

expectedstorageinjections,decreasedoutput,aswellasfirmdemand.

GasstorageutilisationlevelsintheEU

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

0%

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

10-yearrange2013-202210-yearaverage2022202320242024e

Source:AGSI+,UBS

GasstorageutilisationlevelsintheUS

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

0%

JanFebMarAprAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Range2018-2022202320245-yearaverage

Source:EIA,UBS

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage4.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Figure1:Japan'sLNGstocksheldbyutils(bcm)

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

5-yrrange202320245-yraverage

Source:Datastream,METI,UBS

GlobalGas10May2024ab2

GlobalGas10May2024ab3

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Therisksassociatedwithourinvestmentthesisincludevolatilityinoilandnaturalgasprices,

marginsforglobalrefining,marketing,andchemicals,aswellasnormalexplorationrisks

associatedwiththeoilandgasbusiness

GlobalGas10May2024ab4

RequiredDisclosures

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

ForinformationonthewaysinwhichUBSmanagesconflictsandmaintainsindependenceofitsUBSGlobalResearchproduct;historicalperformanceinformation;certainadditionaldisclosuresconcerningUBSGlobalResearchrecommendations;andtermsandconditionsforcertainthirdpartydatausedinresearchreport,pleasevisit

/disclosures.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,informationanddatainthisreportarebasedoncompanydisclosuresincludingbutnotlimitedtoannual,interim,quarterlyreportsandothercompanyannouncements.Thefigurescontainedinperformancechartsrefertothepast;pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Additionalinformationwillbemadeavailableuponrequest.UBSSecuritiesCo.LimitedislicensedtoconductsecuritiesinvestmentconsultancybusinessesbytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission.UBSactsormayactasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatmaybethesubjectofthisreport.Thisrecommendationwasfinalizedon:10May202411:14AMGMT.UBShasdesignatedcertainUBSGlobalResearchdepartmentmembersasDerivativesResearchAnalystswherethosedepartmentmemberspublishresearchprincipallyontheanalysisofthepriceormarketforaderivative,andprovideinformationreasonablysufficientuponwhichtobaseadecisiontoenterintoaderivativestransaction.WhereDerivativesResearchAnalystsco-authorresearchreportswithEquityResearchAnalystsorEconomists,theDerivativesResearchAnalystisresponsibleforthederivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/orrecommendations.QuantitativeResearchReview:UBSGlobalResearchpublishesaquantitativeassessmentofitsanalysts'responsestocertainquestionsaboutthelikelihoodofanoccurrenceofanumberofshorttermfactorsinaproductknownasthe'QuantitativeResearchReview'.Viewscontainedinthisassessmentonaparticularstockreflectonlytheviewsonthoseshorttermfactorswhichareadifferenttimeframetothe12-monthtimeframereflectedinanyequityratingsetoutinthisnote.Forthelatestresponses,pleaseseetheQuantitativeResearchReviewAddendumatthebackofthisreport,whereapplicable.Forpreviousresponsespleasemakereferenceto(i)previousUBSGlobalResearchreports;and(ii)wherenoapplicableresearchreportwaspublishedthatmonth,theQuantitativeResearchReviewwhichcanbefoundat

/

quantitative,

orcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativeforaccesstothereportortheQuantitativeResearchTeamon

qa@.

AconsolidatedreportwhichcontainsallresponsesisalsoavailableandagainyoushouldcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativefordetailsandpricingortheQuantitativeResearchteamontheemailabove.

AnalystCertification:

Eachresearchanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthosesecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoUBS,and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystintheresearchreport.

UBSGlobalResearch:GlobalEquityRatingDefinitions

12-MonthRating

Definition

Coverage1

IBServices2

Buy

FSRis>6%abovetheMRA.

51%

36%

Neutral

FSRisbetween-6%and6%oftheMRA.

40%

38%

Sell

FSRis>6%belowtheMRA.

8%

33%

Short-TermRating

Definition

Coverage3

IBServices4

Buy

Stockpriceexpectedtorisewithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Sell

Stockpriceexpectedtofallwithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Source:UBS.Ratingallocationsareasof31March2024.

1:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithinthe12-monthratingcategory.

2:Percentageofcompanieswithinthe12-monthratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

3:PercentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithintheShort-Termratingcategory.

4:PercentageofcompanieswithintheShort-Termratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

GlobalGas10May2024ab5

KEYDEFINITIONS:ForecastStockReturn(FSR)isdefinedasexpectedpercentagepriceappreciationplusgrossdividendyieldoverthenext12months.Insomecases,thisyieldmaybebasedonaccrueddividends.MarketReturnAssumption(MRA)isdefinedastheone-yearlocalmarketinterestrateplus5%(aproxyfor,andnotaforecastof,theequityriskpremium).UnderReview(UR)StocksmaybeflaggedasURbytheanalyst,indicatingthatthestock'spricetargetand/orratingaresubjecttopossiblechangeinthenearterm,usuallyinresponsetoaneventthatmayaffecttheinvestmentcaseorvaluation.Short-TermRatingsreflecttheexpectednear-term(uptothreemonths)performanceofthestockanddonotreflectanychangeinthefundamentalvieworinvestmentcase.EquityPriceTargetshaveaninvestmenthorizonof12months.

EXCEPTIONSANDSPECIALCASES:UKandEuropeanInvestmentFundratingsanddefinitionsare:Buy:Positiveonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Neutral:Neutralonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Sell:Negativeonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount.CoreBandingExceptions(CBE):Exceptionstothestandard+/-6%bandsmaybegrantedbytheInvestmentReviewCommittee(IRC).FactorsconsideredbytheIRCincludethestock'svolatilityandthecreditspreadoftherespectivecompany'sdebt.Asaresult,stocksdeemedtobeveryhighorlowriskmaybesubjecttohigherorlowerbandsastheyrelatetotherating.Whensuchexceptionsapply,theywillbeidentifiedintheCompanyDisclosurestableintherelevantresearchpiece.

Researchanalystscontributingtothisreportwhoareemployedbyanynon-USaffiliateofUBSSecuritiesLLCarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.SuchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofUBSSecuritiesLLCandthereforearenotsubjecttotheFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Thenameofeachaffiliateandanalystemployedbythataffiliatecontributingtothisreport,ifany,follows.

UBSAGLondonBranch:JoshuaStone,NayoungKim.UBSEuropeSE:HenriPatricot,CFA.UBSSecuritiesLLC:JoshSilverstein.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,pleaserefertotheValuationandRisksectionswithinthebodyofthisreport.Foracompletesetofdisclosurestatementsassociatedwiththecompaniesdiscussedinthisreport,includinginformationonvaluationandrisk,pleasecontactUBSSecuritiesLLC,1285AvenueofAmericas,NewYork,NY10019,USA,Attention:InvestmentResearch.

GlobalGas10May2024ab6

TheDisclaimerrelevanttoGlobalWealthManagementclientsfollowstheGlobalResearchDisclaimer.TheDisclaimerrelevanttoCreditSuisseWealthManagementfollowstheGlobalWealthManagementDisclaimer.

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