基础化工行业深度分析：行业景气低位运行一季度经营形势有所改善

请阅读最后一页各项声明基础化工——基础化工行业深度分析证券研究报告证券研究报告-行业深度分析同步大市(维持)-26023.052023.092024.012024.050% -26023.052023.092024.012024.050%5%-11%-5%-11%-16%-21%-16%-31%《基础化工行业深度分析：尼龙产业链分析及河南省产业概况》2024-05-21《基础化工行业月报：化工品整体延续涨势，继续关注煤化工、轻烃化工与磷化工》2024-05-16《基础化工行业月报：围绕供需与资源品两条主线，关注煤化工与轻烃化工、磷化工和粘胶长丝行业》2024-04-12复合肥、氮肥、改性塑料和印染化学品等行业改善年以来持续下滑。2023年三季度以来，请阅读最后一页各项声明 31.1.2023年收入、利润延续下滑，一季度利润环比改善 31.2.子行业景气低位运行，一季度多数子行业利润环比增长 3 62.1.基础化工盈利能力企稳，毛利率连续三季度环比回升 62.2.多数子行业一季度环比改善 7 93.1.资产负债率保持稳定 93.2.一季度现金流环比下降 3.3.在建工程规模增速放缓 3.4.存货周转天数同比小幅提升，营运能力有所下滑 6 6 6 6 9 3 3 4 5 7 8 请阅读最后一页各项声明1.1.2023年收入、利润延续下滑，一季下滑幅度不断趋缓。其中营业收入增速较三季报的-2.75%提升0表1：中信基础化工2023年收入与利润2022年2023年工行业的收入、利润同比小幅下滑，但营业利润和净利润环比实现大幅增长，显示行业表2：中信基础化工2024年一季度收入与利润1.2.子行业景气低位运行，一季度多数子行业利润环比增长请阅读最后一页各项声明及成本下降，轮胎主要受益于海外需求恢复以及成本下降，民爆用品主要受益于矿山、基建开表3：基础化工各子行业2023年收入与利润2022年2023年2022年2023年1619.421462.18-9.71%141.7852.11-63.25%钾肥424.08307.02-27.60%232.48125.69-45.94%复合肥785.65791.240.71%30.7223.81-22.48%农药2090.411651.32-21.01%192.6939.67-79.41%磷肥及磷化工1362.201276.11-6.32%146.7868.95-53.03%涤纶376.59400.996.48%19.323.60-81.36%296.34302.241.99%32.8028.12-14.28%粘胶361.35345.40-4.41%3.354.1724.35%绵纶225.10217.55-3.35%6.14-71.09%碳纤维55.2953.80-2.69%17.867.52-57.90%纯碱562.65521.78-7.26%103.1260.00-41.81%1806.201516.99-16.01%142.156.93-95.12%无机盐195.07181.44-6.99%28.6418.20-36.44%其他化学原料1005.281042.383.69%56.9655.82-2.00%钛白粉412.29427.333.65%41.1136.92-10.19%498.70540.758.43%14.5150.88250.74%民爆用品427.22543.2127.15%16.0136.36127.08%涂料油墨颜料311.56331.596.43%9.2710.5814.14%印染化学品395.55337.27-14.73%31.3213.01-58.47%其他化学制品Ⅲ1696.311768.844.28%127.8476.65-40.04%食品及饲料添加剂967.95928.99-4.03%74.93-37.00%电子化学品326.69388.1018.80%40.8133.65-17.55%锂电化学品2879.112862.79-0.57%365.85101.68-72.21%氟化工471.37445.69-5.45%61.7020.90-66.13%有机硅416.95412.99-0.95%71.9231.71-55.90%聚氨酯1769.481952.8810.36%170.58171.580.59%橡胶助剂249.74246.849.656.80-29.60%改性塑料840.05987.9217.60%36.9821.42-42.07%合成树脂488.30505.713.57%79.3375.68-4.60%膜材料432.80417.65-3.50%20.462.36-88.45%其他塑料制品446.92453.291.42%17.9621.0417.17%轮胎730.94857.8917.37%23.2472.83213.41%橡胶制品1227.03947.67-22.77%36.85-96.21%请阅读最后一页各项声明表4：基础化工各子行业2024年一季度收入与利润（亿元）370.52370.760.07%1.93%18.2321.4817.82%545.86%钾肥69.3539.72-42.73%-49.29%34.8215.45-55.64%-48.61%复合肥216.82178.95-17.46%-3.38%9.83-13.07%675.81%农药453.08405.54-10.49%10.07%35.2517.92-49.17%扭亏磷肥及磷化工288.56272.56-5.54%-9.61%23.4921.20-9.73%24.97%涤纶86.7291.375.37%-9.95%2.28-37.85%扭亏72.0476.235.82%-0.12%7.677.09-7.61%17.22%粘胶83.8384.831.19%-2.98%扭亏188.96%绵纶46.4957.6524.01%-2.57%0.140.94588.52%152.82%碳纤维15.7710.51-33.32%-13.96%4.220.07-98.32%扭亏纯碱131.11-13.80%-20.16%20.20-44.74%-5.50%384.87331.39-13.90%-0.33%6.97-38.08%扭亏无机盐45.1941.69-7.74%-10.49%5.024.16-17.05%其他化学原料218.61243.76-9.88%4.2512.27188.85%43.13%钛白粉109.097.26%10.87%6.4578.26%-0.48%121.61128.525.69%-15.85%9.6714.3147.95%2.29%民爆用品103.51101.90-31.29%6.015.46-9.11%87.95%涂料油墨颜料61.1264.876.14%-22.99%0.53208.25%扭亏印染化学品77.4777.940.61%-12.90%3.904.9426.87%228.97%其他化学制品Ⅲ385.81414.217.36%-8.11%20.0523.8819.09%1748.31%食品及饲料添加剂225.46230.882.41%-5.58%20.3523.1513.77%18.65%电子化学品67.3396.6843.58%-6.46%5.759.8871.81%60.48%锂电化学品717.25471.26-34.30%-20.97%37.5913.14-65.05%扭亏氟化工94.56104.7910.81%-5.91%3.835.8953.83%143.45%有机硅95.6390.22-5.66%12.017.41-38.35%33.78%聚氨酯444.29512.8715.43%6.87%42.1243.533.33%15.22%橡胶助剂59.4159.620.36%-8.55%0.762.88281.28%68.99%改性塑料202.97226.71-17.84%6.895.40-21.60%253.67%合成树脂130.8218.33%-10.92%15.3117.9617.28%-22.15%膜材料99.3693.32-6.08%-3.69%3.140.11-96.59%扭亏其他塑料制品100.97102.591.61%-7.43%4.80-59.28%-16.12%轮胎185.63223.3320.30%-2.36%8.8122.28152.89%0.06%橡胶制品232.45218.30-6.09%-3.06%6.405.41-15.57%扭亏请阅读最后一页各项声明2.盈利能力企稳，毛利率环比持续改善2.1.基础化工盈利能力企稳，毛利率连续三季度环比回升图1：基础化工行业毛利率与净利率30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A2024Q1—整体毛利率（%）—整体净利率（%）图2：基础化工行业期间费用率16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A2024Q1—销售费用率（%）—管理费用率（%）—财务费用率（%）—期间费用率（%）图3：基础化工行业单季度毛利率与净利率30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%—整体毛利率（%）—整体净利率（%）图4：基础化工行业单季度期间费用率16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%—销售费用率（%）—管理费用率（%）—财务费用率（%）—期间费用率（%）请阅读最后一页各项声明品和氟化工行业，受产品价格下跌的影响，毛利率下滑幅度较大个百分点。总体来看，部分贴近终端消费的下游产业链品种，受原材料成本下降等影响，盈利价格下跌等因素影响，盈利能力下滑幅度较大。表5：基础各子行业化工2023年盈利能力2022年2023年2022年2023年17.32%12.74%-4.58%9.32%3.43%-5.89%钾肥79.14%57.95%-21.19%64.52%45.56%-18.96%复合肥12.90%-0.93%4.03%2.98%农药26.42%21.23%-5.19%9.89%2.82%-7.07%磷肥及磷化工21.53%15.16%-6.38%12.50%6.28%-6.22%涤纶7.18%4.69%-2.49%5.18%0.90%-4.28%18.59%16.50%-2.09%9.40%粘胶15.01%16.45%1.44%1.99%2.30%0.31%绵纶9.63%2.78%1.31%碳纤维44.52%27.72%-16.81%32.29%14.00%-18.30%纯碱32.55%28.32%-4.23%20.19%13.74%-6.45%17.41%-5.62%8.20%0.24%-7.96%无机盐29.37%25.33%-4.04%15.04%9.95%-5.09%其他化学原料16.02%14.48%5.80%5.21%-0.59%钛白粉23.85%20.75%-3.11%10.78%8.80%38.35%45.45%7.10%2.66%9.47%6.81%民爆用品24.94%25.60%0.66%5.99%7.79%1.80%涂料油墨颜料23.52%26.07%2.55%2.96%3.28%0.32%印染化学品24.64%21.55%-3.10%8.56%4.20%-4.35%其他化学制品Ⅲ19.55%16.12%-3.43%7.77%4.17%-3.60%食品及饲料添加剂26.19%21.08%-5.11%12.95%8.03%-4.93%电子化学品32.76%29.96%-2.80%12.96%9.49%-3.47%锂电化学品22.59%13.32%-9.28%13.64%3.59%-10.05%请阅读最后一页各项声明氟化工24.17%15.17%-9.00%13.45%5.13%-8.32%有机硅28.75%18.48%-10.27%17.23%7.58%-9.65%聚氨酯16.51%16.25%-0.26%10.10%9.55%-0.55%橡胶助剂10.36%9.64%-0.72%3.81%2.68%改性塑料14.46%12.65%4.75%2.05%-2.70%合成树脂27.60%27.15%-0.45%16.25%14.98%膜材料17.98%14.09%-3.90%4.88%0.53%-4.35%其他塑料制品13.06%12.55%-0.51%4.04%4.59%0.56%轮胎14.62%22.09%7.47%3.25%8.77%5.53%橡胶制品10.96%-0.41%3.64%0.07%-3.57%率同比下滑。其中日用化学品、轮胎、钛白粉、其他化学原料和橡胶制剂行业毛利率改善幅度化学制品等行业毛利率环比提升幅度较大，碳纤维、农药、膜材料、橡胶制品和氮肥等行业净表6：基础化工各子行业2024年第一季度盈利能力比比比比12.18%14.01%1.82%0.36%5.19%6.28%1.09%7.19%钾肥70.81%49.62%-21.19%-3.94%53.49%41.50%3.26%复合肥12.61%13.53%0.93%1.40%5.28%5.42%0.14%4.85%农药24.74%22.13%-2.61%5.51%8.29%4.65%-3.64%10.55%磷肥及磷化工17.33%17.08%-0.25%-2.52%9.51%8.71%-0.80%2.38%涤纶5.26%5.16%-0.10%1.85%2.64%1.55%3.73%19.52%16.32%-3.20%2.56%10.98%9.11%1.44%粘胶13.88%15.59%1.71%0.08%2.47%2.38%1.20%绵纶10.53%9.54%-0.40%0.84%2.25%1.41%1.27%碳纤维37.85%17.89%-19.96%10.86%26.80%0.70%-26.09%13.87%纯碱28.84%25.16%-3.68%-5.43%17.58%12.49%-5.09%0.83%12.04%12.85%0.81%-0.05%2.70%1.88%-0.82%5.87%无机盐25.64%25.63%-0.02%0.52%10.07%1.10%其他化学原料10.72%14.46%3.75%-0.33%1.83%4.85%3.02%2.37%钛白粉17.59%21.99%4.40%0.41%6.57%9.80%3.23%-0.44%40.11%47.48%7.37%8.00%3.24%1.81%民爆用品22.48%23.08%0.59%-2.47%6.57%6.17%-0.40%4.16%涂料油墨颜料23.46%23.37%-0.09%-2.52%0.96%2.66%1.70%4.95%印染化学品21.04%23.15%2.12%1.91%5.22%6.72%1.50%3.80%请阅读最后一页各项声明其他化学制品Ⅲ17.38%17.08%-0.30%2.50%5.00%5.89%0.89%5.85%食品及饲料添加剂21.25%22.98%1.73%-0.66%9.11%1.00%2.40%电子化学品31.28%29.92%8.90%2.39%4.63%锂电化学品14.69%12.27%-2.42%0.95%5.50%3.13%-2.38%5.83%氟化工15.31%14.46%-0.85%0.61%4.23%6.07%1.84%3.73%有机硅25.28%19.86%-5.42%4.69%12.49%8.11%-4.37%2.87%聚氨酯17.53%16.88%-0.65%0.82%10.24%9.28%-0.95%0.73%橡胶助剂8.56%10.91%2.35%0.10%1.12%4.87%3.75%2.19%改性塑料13.95%12.57%2.25%3.67%2.21%2.18%合成树脂25.79%26.25%0.46%-2.19%13.90%13.75%-0.15%膜材料13.92%12.21%-0.01%3.24%-0.01%-3.25%10.21%其他塑料制品-0.86%4.60%1.64%-2.96%-0.44%轮胎16.99%22.56%5.57%-2.81%4.90%10.20%5.30%0.21%橡胶制品0.20%1.32%3.00%2.51%-0.48%8.40%3.基础化工行业财务指标分析2024年一季度，中信基础化工行业总资产规图5：基础化工行业资产负债率40%20%基础化工行业资产负债率（%）请阅读最后一页各项声明CS绵纶CS聚氨酯CS改性塑料CS有机硅CS钛白粉CS复合肥CS磷肥及磷化工CS橡胶制品CS其他化学原料CS涂料油墨颜料CS轮胎CS橡胶助剂CS农药CS民爆用品CS氮肥CS涤纶CS粘胶CS锂电化学品CSCS绵纶CS聚氨酯CS改性塑料CS有机硅CS钛白粉CS复合肥CS磷肥及磷化工CS橡胶制品CS其他化学原料CS涂料油墨颜料CS轮胎CS橡胶助剂CS农药CS民爆用品CS氮肥CS涤纶CS粘胶CS锂电化学品CS氯碱CS印染化学品CS合成树脂CS氟化工CS碳纤维CS膜材料CS其他化学制品ⅢCS氨纶CS食品及饲料添加剂CS无机盐CS其他塑料制品CS纯碱CS电子化学品CS钾肥图6：2024Q1基础化工各行业资产负债率70%60%50%40%30%20%0%表7：2024Q1基础化工各行业总资产及资产负债率2152.6949.03%1.19%钾肥777.3520.22%-2.39%复合肥848.8654.00%0.31%农药3041.2650.27%2.08%磷肥及磷化工1514.0953.17%-3.07%涤纶413.4148.74%4.78%527.6636.09%2.96%粘胶516.7547.89%绵纶419.6662.57%碳纤维222.9140.35%7.59%纯碱944.4332.62%2911.6644.96%1.94%无机盐307.2734.71%-4.11%其他化学原料1891.1152.27%0.59%钛白粉1021.1054.39%0.95%请阅读最后一页各项声明2015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q130002500200015001000500726.1231.93%-4.50%民爆用品930.2450.17%-0.99%涂料油墨颜料559.0752.00%印染化学品43.11%1.89%其他化学制品Ⅲ3192.1336.44%-0.62%食品及饲料添加剂1475.2535.36%-0.10%电子化学品919.6429.97%1.28%锂电化学品4635.2447.07%-2.41%氟化工744.3140.84%0.89%有机硅57.52%聚氨酯2998.7962.34%0.42%橡胶助剂286.2350.64%0.78%改性塑料1213.8961.82%2.01%合成树脂41.31%1.30%膜材料916.6738.90%1.62%其他塑料制品651.5733.60%-4.09%轮胎1482.5150.72%橡胶制品1251.5152.73%1.39%3.2.一季度现金流环比下降的减少。2024年一季度，基础化工行业图7：基础化工年度经营现金流净额（亿元）02010A2011A2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A基础化工行业经营活动产生的现金流量净额（亿元）图8：基础化工单季度经营现金流净额（亿元）120010008006004002000(200)单季度经营活动产生的现金流量净额（亿元）2024年一季度，基础化工各子行业中有12个子行业现金流同比增长，其中锂电化学品、请阅读最后一页各项声明表8：基础化工各子行业经营活动产生的现金流净额（亿元）284.69144.38-140.319.417.68钾肥247.24169.49-77.7620.6010.28复合肥67.1143.81-23.30-2.59农药271.55129.69-141.86-26.52磷肥及磷化工207.92133.09-74.832.249.68涤纶16.46-31.48-4.71-0.694.0230.4228.25-2.17-2.98-4.42粘胶26.5124.19-2.320.700.01-0.69绵纶8.394.19-4.20-2.78-5.72-2.94碳纤维16.000.44-3.33-3.77纯碱96.8561.59-35.2612.124.39-7.74217.61-99.4220.44无机盐29.2129.810.604.534.21-0.32其他化学原料126.86133.296.43-6.7712.3019.07钛白粉47.9636.182.370.5036.4264.2427.819.0412.063.01民爆用品45.2655.8910.63-7.40-2.60涂料油墨颜料17.2928.42-7.75-9.92-2.17印染化学品23.1131.488.3714.880.94其他化学制品Ⅲ62.1094.1732.07食品及饲料添加剂159.61158.89-0.727.616.04电子化学品43.3262.8319.504.648.513.87锂电化学品-4.19351.54355.73-57.37-22.0235.35氟化工72.0835.73-36.352.580.03-2.55有机硅7.427.30-0.13-27.32聚氨酯371.64286.08-85.5642.1826.43橡胶助剂2.7513.2710.52-5.150.085.23改性塑料50.4142.63-7.786.295.11合成树脂74.49108.3533.8619.7615.26-4.50膜材料18.9736.64-20.709.46其他塑料制品28.1322.45-5.69-6.50-6.61轮胎48.68123.3274.649.906.89-3.02橡胶制品44.5152.628.11-0.82-0.650.163.3.在建工程规模增速放缓建工程规模快速提升。2024年一季度，基础化工行业期末在建工程总额为4628.71亿元，同请阅读最后一页各项声明图9：基础化工在建工程规模（亿元）5000450040003500300025002000150010005000基础化工行业在建工程（亿元）图10：基础化工在建工程占总资产比重16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0% 基础化工行业在建工程占总资产比重（%）表9：2024Q1基础化工各行业在建工程362.88152.14-58.08%钾肥26.5642.8861.44%复合肥57.8173.5727.25%农药225.24277.6923.29%磷肥及磷化工87.4399.9614.33%涤纶20.7121.302.84%44.0730.61-30.54%粘胶25.0535.2040.54%绵纶53.0448.36-8.84%碳纤维31.2827.31-12.67%纯碱101.3957.09-43.69%355.36339.30-4.52%无机盐18.7718.40其他化学原料236.22222.41-5.84%钛白粉88.4598.9621.3215.54-27.10%民爆用品29.2842.1743.99%涂料油墨颜料41.1240.80-0.77%印染化学品41.5936.90其他化学制品Ⅲ283.76340.2819.92%食品及饲料添加剂105.77129.6622.59%电子化学品56.5275.3133.24%锂电化学品414.01504.4021.83%氟化工102.2590.35请阅读最后一页各项声明4500400035003000250045004000350030002500200015001000500有机硅193.82446.70130.47%聚氨酯383.40591.2854.22%橡胶助剂17.4820.9219.70%改性塑料160.08142.91-10.73%合成树脂212.41175.94-17.17%膜材料94.6689.96-4.96%其他塑料制品31.5536.9817.20%轮胎109.19-5.98%橡胶制品163.37194.2318.89%3.4.存货周转天数同比小幅提升，营运能力有所下滑图11：基础化工行业存货规模0基础化工行业存货（亿元）图12：基础化工存货周转天数10090807060504030200 基础化工行业存货周转天数（天）表10：2024Q1基础化工各行业存货周转天数37.8540.156.08%钾肥101.27-15.41%复合肥68.3286.1626.13%农药124.25125.230.79%磷肥及磷化工61.6355.56-9.85%涤纶55.2960.068.63%58.3972.0123.32%粘胶45.3647.484.69%绵纶51.4742.33-17.74%请阅读最后一页各项声明碳纤维69.4660.97%纯碱43.7072.2965.44%35.5137.776.37%无机盐84.6078.62-7.08%其他化学原料51.1554.346.24%钛白粉87.0997.0390.2793.293.34%民爆用品40.0841.924.60%涂料油墨颜料87.4588.711.44%印染化学品491.58516.275.02%其他化学制品Ⅲ89.7182.23-8.34%食品及饲料添加剂78.3465.11-16.89%电子化学品152.79-24.70%锂电化学品80.8284.875.01%氟化工59.3259.830.87%有机硅126.96124.61聚氨酯48.0650.204.44%橡胶助剂59.3046.04-22.37%改性塑料68.5068.47-0.05%合成树脂52.0147.47-8.73%膜材料98.0197.49-0.53%其他塑料制品75.3779.795.86%轮胎91.3190.01橡胶制品58.2055.43-4.77%4.行业投资建议图13：基础化工行业估值图14：中信一级行业估值对比请阅读最后一页各项声明分子行业盈利环比出现改善，景气回暖迹象初显。随着下游需求的复苏以及行业新增产一方面随