德国金融市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.6

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MARKETSFinancialmarketsinGermanyCHAPTER

01GlobaleconomicoverviewThe20countrieswiththelargestgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)in2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)Countrieswiththelargestgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)2022GDPinbillionU.S.dollars15,00005,00010,00020,00025,00030,000UnitedStatesChina25,462.7317,886.33JapanGermanyIndia4,237.534,085.683,389.69UnitedKingdomFrance3,081.872,780.14Russia2,244.25CanadaItalyBrazilAustraliaKorea2,137.942,012.011,920.021,702.551,673.923Description:In2022,theUnitedStateshadthelargesteconomyintheworld,withagrossdomesticproductofjustunder25.5trillionU.S.dollars.Chinahadthesecondlargesteconomy,ataround18.1trillionU.S.dollars.Theremainingcountriesthatroundedouttheworld's20largesteconomiesallhadGDPsthatrangedbetween800billionandfivetrillionU.S.dollars.Comparedtothe20largesteconomiesin2020,Turkeymovedinto19thplacein2022,pushingTaiwanoffthelist.

ReadmoreNote(s):WorldwideSource(s):IMFDistributionofcountrieswithlargeststockmarketsworldwideasofJanuary2023,byshareoftotalworldequitymarketvalueCountrieswithlargeststockmarketsglobally2023Marketshareoftotalworldequitymarketvalue0%10%20%30%40%50%60%60.5%70%U.S.Japan6.2%UK3.7%2.8%ChinaFrance2.8%2.5%2.4%2.1%2%CanadaSwitzerlandGermanyAustraliaIndia2%Taiwan1.7%1.4%SouthKorea4Description:In2024,stockmarketsintheUnitedStatesaccountedforroughly60percentofworldstocks.ThenextlargestcountrybystockmarketsharewasJapan,followedbytheUnitedKingdom.TheNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)andtheNASDAQarethelargestꢀstockexchangeoperatorsworldwide.Whatisastockexchange?ThefirstmodernpubliclytradedcompanywastheDutchEastIndustryCompany,whichsoldsharestothegeneralpublictofundexpeditionstoAsia.Sincethen,groupsof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):CreditSuisse;FTSELargeststockexchangeoperatorsworldwideasofDecember2023,bymarketcapitalizationoflistedcompanies(intrillionU.S.dollars)Largeststockexchangeoperatorsworldwide2023,bymarketcapitalizationMarketcapintrillionU.S.dollars051015202530NYSE,UnitedStatesNASDAQ,UnitedStatesEuronext,Europe25.5623.416.896.526.15ShanghaiStockExchange,ChinaJapanExchangeGroupNationalStockExchangeofIndiaShenzhenStockExchange,ChinaHongKongExchangesLSEGroup,UKTMXGroup,CanadaSaudiStockExchange(Tadawul)NasdaqNordicandBalticsDeutscheBoerseAG4.344.293.973.423.093.022.122.075Description:TheNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)isthelargeststockexchangeintheworld,withanequitymarketcapitalizationofover25trillionU.S.dollarsasofDecember2023.ThefollowingthreeexchangesweretheNASDAQ,theEuronext,andtheShanghaiStockExchange.ꢀWhatisastockexchange?Astockexchangeisamarketplacewherestockbrokers,traders,buyers,andsellerscantradeinequitiesproducts.Thelargestexchangeshavethousandsoflistedcompanies.Thesecompanies[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):WFEForeigndirectinvestmentinwardstockinGermanyfrom2005to2022(inmillionU.Sdollars)FDIinwardstockinGermany2005-20221,4001,2001,0008006001,202.831,147.41,092.391,012.731,017.84988.55997965.01959.2955.17973.49927.43863.41862.26400836.23795.5806.02647.7920002005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120226Description:ThevalueofFDIinwardstockinGermanywas1.1trillionU.S.dollarsin2022,whichwasadeclinewhencomparedwiththepreviousyear,whenthestockofFDIwasaround1.15trillionU.S.dollars.Comparedwith2005,FDIinwardstockinGermanyhasgrownbyalmost450billiondollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2005to2022Source(s):OECDCHAPTER

02StockexchangesTotalmarketcapitalizationofalldomesticshareslistedontheFrankfurtStockExchangefrom2002toDecember2023(inbillioneuros)MarketcapoftheFrankfurtStockExchange2002-20232,5002,0001,5001,00050002002

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20238Description:ThetotalmarketcapitalizationofGermancompanieslistedontheFrankfurtStockexchangereached2.21trillioneurosattheendof2021.Thisisabovethevaluesfoundattheendof2019and2017,indicatingthatGermany'sstockmarkethaslargelyrecoveredfromthefinancialcrashprecipitatedbytheglobalcoronavirus(COVID-19)pandemicin2020.Attheendof2023,thetotalmarketcapitalizationofGermancompanieslistedontheFrankfurtStockexchangeclosedat1.97trillion[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;December2002toDecember2023Source(s):DeutscheBörseLeadingcompanieslistedontheFrankfurtStockExchangeinGermanyasofMarch2024,bymarketcapitalization(inbillioneuros)BiggestcompanieslistedonFrankfurtStockExchange2024,bymarketcapMarketcapinbillioneuros050100150200250SAP218.01Siemens158.05Airbus139.23DeutscheTelekom117.97113.4AllianzPorscheMercedes-BenzGroup89.1583.67MerckBMWVolkswagen74.0972.8769.3867.7164.62SiemensHealthineersMünchenerRückversicherungs-GesellschaftDHLGroup50.229Description:Fouroutofthe20largestcompaniesinsideofGermany'sDAXstockexchangeindexreachedamarketcapofover100billioneurosasofMarch19,2024.ThelargestcompanylistedontheFrankfurtStockExchangewasGermanmultinationalsoftwarecompanySAP,withamarketcapitalizationofover200billioneurosatthistime.TheywerefollowedbyGermanautomationcompanySiemenswith158.05billioneuros.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;March19,2024Source(s):BusinessInsiderMonthlytransactionvolumeofprimestandardshareslistedonthedifferenttradingvenuesoftheFrankfurtStockExchangefromJanuary2019toMarch2023(inmillionunits)TransactionvolumeofXetraandBörseFrankfurt2019-2023,bymonthXetra(XETRandXETI)Frankfurt(XFRA)9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000010Description:ThevastmajorityofstocktradesinFrankfurtweremadethroughtheelectronicXetratradingvenue,ratherthanthetraditionalBörseFrankfurttradingfloor.ThenumberofprimestandardsharestradedontheFrankfurtStockExchangejumpedtoovereightbillionunitsduringMarch2020,duetotheeconomiccrashcausedcoronaviruspandemic.Atthistime,theDAXindex-whichiscomprisedofthe40largestGermancompaniesontheFrankfurtStockExchangewhomeettheprime[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2019toMarch2023Source(s):DeutscheBörseMonthlytransactionvalueofprimestandardshareslistedontheFrankfurtStockExchangefromJanuary2019toMarch2023,byindex(inbillioneuros)TurnovercomparisonofthreeDAXindicesinGermany2019-2023DAXMDAXSDAX18016014012010080604020011Description:ThevalueofsharestradedontheFrankfurtStockExchangejumpedinMarch2020,withthe160largestGermancompaniesgeneratingaturnoverofalmost214billioneurosinthatmonthalone.Thevastmajorityofthisturnover-over80percent-relatedtothe30largestGermancompaniesincludedintheDAXindex(asitwasatthattime),witharound17percentrelatingthetheMDAXindex,andonlythreepercenttheSDAX.ByMarch2023,themonthlyturnovervaluehadstabilizedat[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2019toMarch2023Source(s):DeutscheBörseCHAPTER

03StockindicesMonthlydevelopmentofDAXIndexfromJanuary2015toFebruary2024MonthlydevelopmentDAXIndex2015-202418,50017,50016,50015,50014,50013,50012,50011,50010,5009,5008,500Jan

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2413Description:AttheendofFebruary2024,theDAXindexreached17,932.68points.Thiscomparesto9,935.84attheendofMarch2020,andaround13,249.01pointsattheendofDecember2019–indicatingtheGermanstockmarketshasrecoveredfromtheglobalcoronavirus(COVID-19)pandemicandhasstayedabovethelevelsbeforethepandemic.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2015toFebruary2024Source(s):YahooMonthlydevelopmentoftheMDAXIndexfromJanuary2015toFebruary2024MonthlydevelopmentMDAXIndex2015-202440,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,000Jan

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2414Description:TheadjustedclosingvalueoftheMDAXindexamountedto26,136.35indexpointsattheendofFebruary2024,upfrom21,000pointsattheendofMarch2020.ThisindicatesthattheMDAXhasalmostsurpasseditpre-coronaviruspeakofaround28,000pointsrecordedinDecember2019.TheMDAXwasestablishedin1996,andconsistsoftheGermancompaniesranked41stto90thintermsofmarketcapitalization.Ineffect,thismeansthatitiscomprisedofthe50largestGerman[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2015toFebruary2024Source(s):YahooMonthlydevelopmentoftheSDAXIndexfromJanuary2015toFebruary2024MonthlydevelopmentSDAXIndex2015-202419,00017,00015,00013,00011,0009,0007,0005,000NovMar

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2315Description:TheSDAXgrewbyaround5,000indexpointsbetweenMarch2020andMarch2022.Theindexfluctuatedsignificantlyafterthat,andstoodat13,772.39asofFebruary2024.ThecurrentvalueoftheSDAXisaboveitspre-coronaviruspeakofaround12,250pointsrecordedinDecember2019.TheSDAXwasestablishedin1999,andconsistsoftheGermancompaniesranked91stto160thintermsofmarketcapitalization.Ineffect,thismeansthatitiscomprisedofthe70largestGerman[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2015toFebruary2024Source(s):IMonthlydevelopmentoftheTecDAXIndexfromJanuary2015toFebruary2024MonthlydevelopmentTecDAXIndex2015-20244,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050016Description:Germany'sTecDAXindexamountedto3,388.33indexpointsattheendofFebruary2024.ThecurrentvalueoftheTecDAXisaboveitspre-coronaviruspeakofaround3,060pointsrecordedinJanuary2020.TheTecDAXwasestablishedinMarch2003,andconsistsofthe30largestGermancompaniesoperatinginthetechnologysector.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2015toFebruary2024Source(s):ICHAPTER

04Currency(forex)marketU.S.Dollar(USD)toeuro(EUR)exchangeratefromJune21,2020toApril18,2024USD/EURFXrate,upuntilApr18,20241.11.11.01.00.90.90.80.818Description:TheUSDtoEURexchangeratein2022roughly30percenthigherthanitwasin2012,revealingaverystrongdollaragainsttheeuro.Thevalueof0.94eurosperdollarwasnoticeablyhigherthanthe2016peakof0.95eurosperdollar,butstillabovethepricebeforetheEurozoneCrisis.Thisstartedin2009andwascausedbydifficultiesofseveralEuropeancountrieswithrepayinggovernmentdebt.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;June21,2020toApril18,2024;UnitsofEURperU.S.dollarSource(s):OandaEuro(EUR)toBritishpoundsterling(GBP)exchangeratefromJune21,2020toApril18,2024EUR/GBPFXrate,upuntilApr18,20241.01.01.00.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.819Description:Theaverageexchangerateoftheeurotothepoundnearlyreached0.9GBPoverthecourseof2022,afigurelowerthaninpreviousyears.Thisaccordingtoacomparisonbetweenaveragemonthlyanddailyexchangerates.Figureschangedespeciallyinthesecondhalfof2022,aftertheBritishgovernmentfirstannounceditsinflationplans.ByApril18,2024,however,oneeurowasvaluedat0.86Britishpounds.Thepoundtoeuroexchangeratecanbefoundonadifferentpage.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;June21,2020toApril18,2024;UnitsofGBPpereuroSource(s):OandaEuro(EUR)toCanadiandollar(CAD)exchangeratefromJune21,2020toApril18,2024EUR/CADFXrate,upuntilApr18,20241.71.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.320Description:TheexchangeratehistoryoftheeuroagainsttheCanadiandollarrevealsasteadyincreasesince2015,althoughseveraldipsdidoccur.Since2021,forinstance,theEUR/CADexchangeratesteadilydeclined-withoneeurobeingworth1.47CanadiandollarsasoftheendofApril18,2024.Thisisnotassharpadeclineasinpreviousyears,however.Between2009and2012,theexchangeratenotedasharpdeclineinvaluewithoneeurobeingabletobuyaround1.29Canadiandollars.Thissharp[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;June21,2020toApril18,2024;UnitsofCADpereuroSource(s):OandaEuro(EUR)toChineseYuanRenminbi(CNY)exchangeratefromJune21,2020toApril18,2024EUR/CNYFXrate,upuntilApr18,20248.58.38.17.97.77.57.37.16.96.76.521Description:TheeurotoChineseyuan(RMB,ISOCode:CNY)exchangeratehistoryrevealsadeclinesince2020,althoughfiguresrecoveredsomewhatin2022.Bylate2022,thecurrencyexchangeseemedtohavestabilizedsomewhat:Oneeurocouldbuynearly7.54yuanonApril18,2024.Thisislessthanbeforethefinancialcrisisin2008,whenthisratewasbrieflyover11yuan.Atitslowestpoint-inearly2015-theexchangeratedroppedwellbelowsevenyuan.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;June21,2020toApril18,2024;Monthlyfiguresareasoftheendofthatparticularmonth;UnitsofCNYpereuroSource(s):OandaEuro(EUR)toJapaneseyen(JPY)exchangeratefromJune21,2020toApril18,2024EUR/JPYFXrate,upuntilApr18,202417016015014013012011022Description:TheexchangeratehistoryoftheeuroagainsttheJapaneseyensuggeststhatby2022oneeurocouldbuyasmanyyensasinearly2014.Sincetheintroductionin1999,theexchangerateagainsttheJapanesecurrencyfluctuated:beforethefinancialcrisisin2008,oneeurocouldbuyalmost170yens.Inthesummerof2012,thishaddecreasedtolessthan100yens.Theexchangeratewitnessedasteadygrowthamidstthecoronaviruspandemic2020,however.ByApril18,2024,therateofa[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;June21,2020toApril18,2024;UnitsofJPYpereuroSource(s):OandaCHAPTER

05Fixedincome(bond)marketLong-termgovernmentbondyieldsinGermanyfrom1994to202310-yeargovernmentbondyieldsinGermany1994-20238%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%1994

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202324Description:Thestatisticshowsthelong-termgovernmentbondyieldsinGermanyfrom1994to2023.In2023,theyieldonlong-termGermangovernmentbondsamountedto2.43percent.Long-termgovernmentbondsareunderstoodasbondswitharesidualmaturityofaround10years.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;1994to2023Source(s):DeutscheBundesbank;ECB;ÖsterreichischeNationalbank;ThomsonReutersMonthlyyieldofGermantreasurynoteswithatwoyearmaturity(Schatz)fromJanuary2014toMarch2023Germantwo-yeartreasurynoteyield2014-2023,bymonth3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%25Description:TheyieldonGermantwo-yeartreasurenoteswasequalto2.74percentasoftheendofMarch2023.Forshorttermdebttradedonthecapitalmarket,theGermanfederalgovernmentissuesatwo-yeartreasurynotecalleda'Schatz'inGerman.Thisisthenfollowedbyfive-yeartreasurenotescalled'Bobl',thenfederalbondswithamaturityofbetween10and30years('Bund'inGerman).ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January2014toMarch2023Source(s):DeutscheBundesbankGermany:Generalgovernmentdebtfrom2003to2022(inmillioneuros)GeneralgovernmentdebtGermany2022Nationaldebtinmillioneuros05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102,561.682,495.542,315.222,046.642,063.572,111.752,161.572,177.232,203.742,201.922,216.712,139.152,102.6726Description:ThisstatisticshowsthegeneralnationaldebtofGermanyasdefinedintheMaastrichtTreaty,from2003to2022.In2022,Germany'sgeneralgovernmentdebtswereestimatedtoamounttoapproximately2.56billioneuros.

ReadmoreNote(s):GermanySource(s):DeutscheBundesbank;StatistischesBundesamtDistributionofoutstandinggovernmentdebtsecuritiesinGermanyin2015,2020and2023,bymaturityMaturityofgovernmentbondsinGermanyin20152020and202320152020202350%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%6month(Bubill6M)1year(Bubill12M)2year(Schatz)

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Inflation-linked(Green)federalnoteorbond(ILB)27Description:SecuritieswithamaturitydateoftenyearswerethemostimportantaspectofGermany'sgovernmentdebtin2015,2020and2023.10-yearfederalbondsmadeup45.1,37.2and42.3percentrespectivelyofalloutstandinggovernmentdebtsecurities.Themaindifferencebetweentheseyearsistheintroductionofseveralnewdebtinstruments,namely7-yearbonds,15-yearbonds,and10-yeargreenbonds.Formoneymarketdebt,theGermangovernmentonlyoffersoneyear[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2015to2023Source(s):DeutscheFinanzagenturOutstandingvalueofcorporatedebtsecuritiesinGermanyfrom1stquarter2018to4thquarter2022,bycorporationtype(inbillionU.S.dollars)OutstandingdebtsecuritiesamongcorporationsinGermany2018-2022FinancialcorporationsNon-financialcorporations2,5002,0001,5001,0005002771,833Q42771,819Q22641,799Q12752672621,727Q32531,740Q12052412022202271971932082151921951992051,800

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202228Description:ThevalueofoutstandingdebtsecuritiesforfinancialcorporationsinGermanyamountedto1.59trillionU.S.dollarsasofthefourthquarterof2022,accountingforthevastmajorityofoutstandingcorporatedebtsecuritiesinGermany.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;Q12018toQ42022Source(s):BankforInternationalSettlementsCHAPTER

06MoneymarketAveragedailyturnoverofunsecuredborrowingbetweenbanksintheeuromoneymarketfrom2017toJanuary2023(inbillioneuro)Sizeofinterbankborrowingintheeurozone2017-January202330252015105030Description:InNovember2022,theaveragedailyturnoverforunsecuredinterbankborrowingintheeuromoneymarketgrewsignificanltycomparedtothepreviousmonth,reaching24.1billioneuros.Overall,thedailyaverageturnofforintrabanklendingfluctuatedsignificantlybetweenMarch2017andNovember2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;March2017toJanuary2023Source(s):ECBMonthlyeuroshorttermratefromOctober2019toFebruary2024Euroshorttermrate2019-2024,bymonth4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%Oct

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Feb19192020202020202121212121212222222222232323232323232331Description:SinceitsintroductioninOctober2019,theEuroShort-TermRate(€STR)hasremainedconstantatbetween-0.52and-0.59percentuntilthesecondhalf2022.AsoftheendofFebruary2023,theratestoodat3.89percent,whichwasthehighestrateobserved.The€STRisaninterestratebenchmarkdesignedtoreplacetheEuroOverNightIndexAverage(EOIA),adoptingadifferentcalculationmethodologythatreturnssignificantlylowerrates.ItisintendedthattheEOIAwillbediscontinued[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;October2019toFebruary2024Source(s):EC