BDA-老虎基金威马电动汽车研究报告-EN-2017 03 24

WeltmeisterNewEnergyVehicleStudyMar24,2017ForTigerManagementOnly©BDA20172TableofContentsExecutiveSummaryCompanySnapshotNewEnergyVehicleMarketStudyKSFforNewEntrantsWeltmeisterAutoMakingFeasibilityAssessment(1/3)Asastartup,WeltmeisterhasenteredtheNEVmarket–amarketundergoingexplosivegrowth,butonethatisrifewithinferiorproducts;lookingforward,productupgradesareimminentasvolumescalesup3WeltmeisterSnapshotNewEnergyVehicleFoundedin2015,Weltmeister(“WM”)aimstoenterthenewenergyvehicleindustryfromscratchwithtightandambitiousplanPlanning:IthassetanambitiouslytightscheduletolaunchtheirfirstSUVinSep2018;allpreparationsfromvehicledesign,R&D,manufactureandmarketingmustbecompletedwithintwoyears;ModelFeatures:Basedoncompanyinfo,thefirsttwomodelswillcomefromtheAjaxplatformwithrelativelymediocreconfigurations;thefirstSUVwillbepricedfromRMB190Kto300Kandhaveabatteryrangeof260-450kmMgmt.Background:MembersofWM’scoremanagementallcamefromtraditionalOEMsandhaveworkexperiencesatGeely,GMorFordCurrentNEVmarkethasundergoneexplosivegrowthbutissufferingfrominferiorproducts;prospectsfortheNEVmarketremainbullishasdriversgraduallyshiftfromsubsidyincentivestoindustry-widestricterfuelcommissionstandards,whichwillforcemorefineproductsontotheplayingfieldCurrentMarketOverview:inChina,passengerNEVshaveexperiencedtripledigitgrowthinthepasttwoyears;salesvolumeamountedto240Kin2016,accountingfor1.0%oftotalPVmarket;sedansdominatethewholeNEVmarketwhileSUVsremainabsentduetomostdomesticplayers’reversedevelopmentprocess,whichisunsustainableandwithlowqualityRegulationsandPolicyIncentives:bothcentralandlocalgovernmentsprovidedmassivesubsidiesandotherincentivestopromoteNEVs,butaround2020,stricterfuelconsumptionstandardsandNEVproductionquotaswillforcemoreOEMstolaunchNEVswhilesubsidieswillgraduallyfadeawayLong-termDevelopmentTrends:GivengovernmentguidanceandOEMsstrategicplanning,NEVPVsaleswillamountto1MNin2020withafive-yearCAGRof45%,accountingfor3.9%oftotalestimatedPVsalesvolume(2/3)Tosurvive,newentrantsmustoutpaceestablishedbrandsintheirmodelreleasetimeline;tothrive,theyalsoneedcompetitiveproductsmeetingthestrictestdiesel-poweredvehiclestandards4TimeWindowforNewEntrantsCompetitionScopeforNewEntrantsForemergingplayerswithlesscompetitiveadvantage,it’svitaltostrikefirstandcapturemarketsharebeforedirectcompetitionwithmainstreamOEMs;2017-2020willbethekeytimewindowtosurviveMajorPlayers:NEVplayerscanbecategorizedmainlyintothreetypes;globalOEMswithrichR&Dexperiencebutlackinginconcretemoves;domesticOEMsthathavegrabbedthemarketthankstofavorablepolicies;newentrantswithvariousbackgroundsseekingopportunitiesCompetitiveEdge:TraditionalOEMshaveaccumulatedrichexperienceinR&Dandleveragedwell-establishedSCM,QCexperiencesanddealershipnetworksforNEVsales;thus,theyareoutpacingnewentrants,whichhavetostartfromscratchPipelineforMajorPlayers:MainstreamOEMsareexpectedtotakeoffnear2020withclearstrategicplanningandmorehighperformanceNEVmodelsonsale;theyhavetwoorthreeyearstogobeforeachievingmasscommercializationKeyTimeWindowforNewEntrants:ThetimewindowmattersforstartupsbecausethechancetoreallystandoutlargelydependsonwhethertheycancapturethemarketbeforedirectconfrontationwithestablishedbrandsEvenifstartupsreleaseNEVsaheadoftime,theystillhavetocompetewithexistingdiesel-poweredmodelsinthemarkettostandoutBeyondNEVScope:StartupshavetocompetewithestablishedbrandsbeyondNEV’sscopeastheentirecar’sperformancewilltakeprecedenceoverspecificpowertrainsolutions;upcomingNEVshavenosafeharborwhenmatchedupagainstexistingdiesel-poweredcarsonmarketSmartphonecaseisnotcomparable:Thoughbothnewenergyvehiclesandsmartphonesfallwithinthetechnicalinnovationthesis,NEVscanhardlydisruptthemarketlikesmartphonesdidasthenewtechhasonlyenhancedthevehicle’spowersystemsbutdidnotfundamentallychangetheoverallfeaturesorconsumers’habitsForWM,Weholdconcernsasarushedtimelinecannotassuresuccess;instead,itmayweakenitsmodel’scapability,qualityandsafety;besides,greatmgmt.backgroundsaloneareinsufficientsinceR&D,QCandsalesrequireyearsofdedicationandaccumulatedexperience5Source:BDAanalysisQuestionableTimelineR&D:

WMplannedtocompletethewholeR&Dprocesswithintwoyearsbyskippingcertainsimulatortests,reversingdevelopmentandshorteningfieldtestperiods;suchaudaciousactsstirredquestionsaboutthemodels’capability,reliabilityandsafetyProduction:

TheestimatedtimelinesforfactoryconstructionandSOParerelativelyreasonablecomparedwithindustrystandardsMediocreCompetitiveStrengthPositioning:

WMaimedtoentertheSUVmarketwithfeaturesthatappealtoyoungergenerations;it’stherightdirectionbutstillneedsmarketexaminationR&D:

WMandotherstartupsarecomparablyweakinR&Dcapability;industryexpertsalsocastdoubtontheR&Dbackgroundsof

itskeymgmt.SCM:Permgmt.,WMcameupwithtwobattery/electricmotorsolutions;oneplaninvolvesleadingsuppliersCATLandJinglin,whiletheyremainedsilentabouttheotherplan;collaborationwithleadingplayersforthebasicplanhasbeenconfirmed,whileWMmaynotgetthelowestpricesasmgmt.expected;thefeasibilityofthesecondplanremainslowQCandSales:Qualitycontrolandsalesnetworksareeasytoformbuthardtoharnessastheyrequiresyearsofdedicationandexperience;thebackgroundsofseniormgmt.alonewon’tsufficeOveroptimisticSalesForecastBenchmarking:WMhasanoveroptimisticsalesforecastbenchmarkedwithcomparableexistingnewenergySUVmodelsonthemarketOtherConcernsGovernmentfunding:Ourchannelcheckconfirmedtheexistenceoflong-termlow-interestsupportingfundsfromgovernment,whiletheamountremainedunverified6Foundedin2015,WeltmeisteraimstoenterthenewenergyvehicleindustryfromscratchSource:Companyinformation,BDAanalysisBasicInformationofWeltmeister2015Distributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessalesMajorTimelineGuidanceProvidedbyMgmt.FoundedinShanghai/AcquireGermanyCompanyKickedofffirstmodeldesignprocess2015BeganconstructiononWenzhoufactoryLaunchedfirstAlevelSUVIPONov2016Sep2018Expected48KsalesvolumeforfirstmodelCompletedconstructionofsecondfactoryinHubeiReleasedsecondmodelinlate2019Releasedprototypecar;builtupsaleschannels

Apr201720192022EstablishmentOfficesM&AFunding&ShareholdingGovernmentRelationsProductPlanWMclaimedthatWenzhouandHubeigovernmentwillfundRMB3BNand5BNrespectivelyforprojectdevelopmentsShanghai(Headquarters),Chengdu(R&D),Wenzhou(Manufacturer)andBeijing(DataCenter)AcquiredoneGermancompany,ISDERA,whichhasexpertiseinsportscardesign&manufacturein2015AngelInvestor(20%):individualinvestorARound(10%):ChengweiCapital“128”Strategy1corestructureclaimed2manufactureplatforms:“Ajax”and“Sieg”8vehiclemodels:4fromAjaxand4fromSiegProducttolaunchWillreleaseoneAlevel1batteryelectricSUVbasedonAjaxplatforminlate2018Note:1.AccordingtoGermanvehiclecategorizationsystem,vehiclesaredividedintoA,B,C,Dlevelbasedontheirwheelbase,ccandweightandAlevelcarsare

morecompactcomparedtoothers.Distributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessalesItsetanambitiouslytightscheduletolaunchtheirfirstSUVinSep2018;allpreparationsfromvehicledesign,R&D,manufactureandmarketingmustbecompletedwithintwoyears7Source:Companyinformation,BDAanalysis201620172018NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecChannelBuild-upMarketingWarm-upVehicleR&D2ModelDesign1Apr2017TrialProductionEquipmentandProductLineInstallmentFieldTest3WenzhouFactoryConstructionTimeframeforFristSUVExpectedtobeLaunchedinSep2018R&DProductionSalesNote:1.Permgmt.,modeldesignkickedoffin2015andwasalmostcompletedbytheendof2016.2.WMstartstomakeengineeringprototypeinSep2017,whichmeansthemajordesignaspectsofthevehiclehasbeendetermined.3.Fieldtestsareconductedunderextremeconditions,usuallyinbothsummerandwinter.RecruitingDealersSystemEstablishmentInChina,passengerNEVshaveexperiencedtripledigitgrowthinthepasttwoyears;salesvolumeamountedto240Kin2016,accountingfor1.0%oftotalPVmarket8Distributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessalesDistributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessales16

(43%)60

(53%)20143822

(57%)240168

(70%)72

(30%)BEVPHEV2016+114%201511252

(47%)+196%DomesticSalesofPassengerNewEnergyVehicles,2014-2016NEVPenetrationinOverallPassengerVehiclesMarketSource:NationalPassengerCarInformationExchangeAssociation,CAAM,BDAanalysisUnit:‘000VehiclesYOYPHEV270%21%BEV140%221%20140.2%0.5%1.0%20152016Note:1.OnlypassengervehiclesarecoveredinthissectionsincecommercialvehiclesarenotaddressablemarketforWeltmeisterAuto.Currently,sedansdominatetheNEVmarketwhileSUVsremainabsentduetomostdomesticplayers’reversedevelopmentprocess,whichisunsustainableandwithlowquality9Source:NationalPassengerCarInformationExchangeAssociation,BDAanalysisDistributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriesDistributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessalesSalesVolumeBreakdown,2014-2016SedanMPV20163%20150%201420152014SUVSedanMPV2016BEVPHEVCurrentAbsenceofSUVinNEVMarketAimingtospeeduptheR&Dprocesstocapturethemarketandenjoypolicyadvantage,themajorityofcurrentNEVautomakersareoptingforreversedevelopmentinsteadofforwarddevelopmentDefinitionReversedevelopmentmeansthatitisunlikelyfordomesticOEMstodevelopqualifiedBEVSUVs,andmostcurrentBEVsedansarealsooflowqualityDurationComparisonbetweenBEVForwardandReverseDevelopmentBEVPerformanceForwardReverseDesignanewmodelfromscratchandgothroughthewholeR&DprocessMakesomeadjustmentstoexistingdiesel-poweredmodelstodevelopaBEV,skippingmajorpartsofR&DAtleast2~3yearsformatureOEMsMuchquickerthanforwarddevelopment;1~2yearsorevenshorterBEVsdeliverbetterperformanceintermsofrange,drivingexperience,etc.TechnicalRequirementHigherNosignificantlimitationonvehicletypeLowerHavetoownexistingmodeltomakerevisionsPoorperformancesuchasshortrangeLackofSUVduetofewerexistingadoptablemodelsComparedwiththeoverallPVmarket,NEVshaveremainedundeveloped,stillfocusingonlow-endsedans;themarketmaygraduallyshifttoSUVsandlargersedansasbatteryenergydensityimprovesandcustomerdemandrises10Source:NationalPassengerCarInformationExchangeAssociation,CAAM,BDAanalysisDistributors:Suofeiyamainlysellthroughexclusivedistributors,whichrepresent91%ofitswardrobeandaccessoriessalesSalesMixComparisonbetweenNEVsandPVs,2016NEVsvs.OverallPVsNEVSedansvs.OverallSedans1SedanSUVMPV2%OverallPVs10%NEVPVs2%OverallSedans4%NEVSedans1%CBAA0A00TheNEVmarket,especiallyforlow-endsedans,hasgoneexuberantinthepastfewyears,mainlyboostedbygovernmentsubsidiesandotherfavorablepolicieslikeunrestrictedNEVlicensesHowever,SUVsandlargersedanslaggedbehindintheprogressofNEVtransformationastheyrequiremoreadvancedbatterysolutionsLookingforward,SUVsandsuperiorsedans(ModelX)areexpectedtorampupasbatteryenergydensityimprovesandcostslowerby10-15%p.a.;what’smore,newenergySUVswillalsobenefitfromthehighgrowthmomentumoftheSUVsectoroverall(44%YoYin2016)Note:1.VehiclesaredividedintoA,B,CandDlevelsbasedontheirwheelbase,ccandweight.FromA00toC,thesizegetslargerandperformancegetsbetter.ChinagovernmentprovidedmassivesubsidiesandotherincentivestopromoteNEVs,butaround2020,stricterfuelconsumptionstandardsandNEVproductionquotaswillforcemoreOEMstolaunchNEVswhilesubsidieswillgraduallyfadeaway11Source:BDAinterviewandanalysisCurrentPolicyandRegulations

Trendsaround2020sGovernmentSubsidyforCarPurchaseUnlimitedQuotaforNEVCarLicenseStrictRegulationsSupporttoChargingFacilitiesNationalSubsidy:Foreachpurchasedvehicle,BEVandPHEVpurchasersenjoysubsidyofRMB20-44KandRMB24KrespectivelyLocalSubsidy:

Localgovernmentslaunchsupportivepolicieswithaprotectionisttendency,andlocalsubsidywillbenomorethan50%ofnationalsubsidyTheamountofsubsidywillgodowncontinuously,exceptforfuelcellvehiclepurchasesubsidy60-65%2016201780%80%2018100%202060-65%2019DecliningSubsidyforBEVandPHEV,2016-2020LicenseApplication:CitiesthatlimitthenumberofissuedlicensesopenspecialapplicationforNEVs,thusNEVpurchaserscangetlicensesmoreeasilyOtherBenefits:suchasfreeparkingfees,lessrestrictionsondailycommuting,etc.ItisexpectedthattheeasinessofgettinglicensesforNEVswilllastfortheforeseeablefutureNEVProductionPointQuota:Draftguidancehascomeoutrecently,whichimposesgreatpressureonOEMstodevelopNEVstomeetquotarequirementsFuelConsumptionStandard:Centralgovernmenthassetupaverystrictstandardofautocorporate

fuelconsumption,whichishardtofulfillunlessOEMsproduceNEVsBy2020,majorOEMshavetodevelopNEVstomeetquotastandards,otherwisetheyneedtopurchasepointsfromotherplayers,whichhurtstheirprofitabilityFuelconsumptiontargetgoesstricterfromnowonto2030,pushingautomakerstoproduceNEVstoavoidcompliancecostGovernmentnotonlyprovidessubsidyforchargingfacilityconstructioninvestment

butalsosetsguidanceonchargingfeesBy2020,itisexpectedthat4.8MNchargingpileswillbebuilttomeetdemandsfrom5MNnewenergyvehicles,indicatinghugemarketpotentialGivengovernmentguidanceandOEMsstrategicplanning,NEVPVsaleswillamountto1MNin2020withafive-yearCAGRof45%,accountingfor3.9%oftotalestimatedPVsalesvolume12201870120198831,064BEV+45%PHEV202520201,9547220151126020174762016240Source:NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,JPMorgan,BDAresearchandanalysisSellSideForecastonNEVPVSalesVolume,2015–2025FUnit:‘000VehiclesDevelopmentGuidanceonTotalNEVMarketCentralgovernmenthasgivenguidanceonNEVdevelopment,withcumulativetotalsalesofBEVandPHEVtoexceed5MNby2020“By2020,productioncapacityofNEV(BEVandPHEV)shouldachieve2MN,withaccumulatedtotalsalestobeover5MN.Besides,fuelcellvehicletechshouldalsodevelopfurther,followingtheinternationaltrend.”--EnergySavingandNEVIndustryDevelopmentPlan(2012-2020)PenetrationofNEVisexpectedtolargelyincreaseinthecomingdecade,reaching20%oftotalvehiclesalesby2025Facingsuchasituation,traditionalOEMsaremakingastrategicNEVproductplantoadapttotheevolvingmarket“AsforNEV’spercentageamongtotalvehiclesales,itisexpectedtoreach7%,20%and40%by2020,

2025and2030respectively.”--EnergySavingandNEVTechnologyRoadmap,Sep2016“By2025,Volkswagenplanstolaunch30NEVmodels,achieve2-3MNelectricvehiclesannualsales,whichwilltakeup20-25%oftotalsalesvolume.”--VolkswagenStrategicDevelopmentPlanof2025PenetrationinOverallPVMarket0.5%1.0%1.9%2.7%3.3%3.9%6.5%NEVplayerscanbecategorizedmainlyintothreetypes:globalOEMswithrichR&Dexperiencebutlagbehindinconcretemoves;domesticOEMsseizedthemarketthankstofavorablepolicies;newentrantswithvariousbackgroundsseekingopportunities13Source:BDAresearchandanalysisR&DKick-offStrategyOutlookandPipelineGlobalOEMs1DomesticOEMs2NewEntrants3Backinthe1990sAfewkickedofflateinto2010sCurrentSituationTypicalPlayersAround2010sMoststartedsince2014HaveaccumulatedR&DtechnologyRealizethesignificanceofthismarketsegmentandthusstartedtoaccelerateNEVdevelopmentHaveenjoyedfirstmoveradvantageindomesticmarket,benefitingfromstrongincentivepolicyofgovernmentTopplayersmasteradvancedtechwhiletherestareweakinR&DMostarestillatR&Dstage;somequickmovershavereleasedvehiclemodelLongwaytogobeforemassproductionwithuncertaintyShiftmorefocustoNEVsegment,withlargeinvestmentinR&DandstrongpipelineNEVproductswillgotomarketbystagefrom2017to2025KeepfocusedonNEVmarketwithmoreproductscomingoutFurtherdevelopR&DtechnologyandseekopportunitiesacrossthewholeindustrychainPlantolaunchBEVstomarketinthefollowingthreeyearsTraditionalOEMshaveaccumulatedrichexperienceinR&Dandleveragedwell-establishedSCM,qualitycontrolexperienceanddealershipnetworksforNEVsales;thus,theyareoutpacingnewentrants,whichhavetostartfromscratch14Source:BDAanalysisGlobalOEMsDomesticOEMsNewEntrantsPositioningR&DSupplyChainMgmt.QualityControlSalesandMarketingCompetitiveAnalysisamongDifferentTypesofPlayersLeastCompetitiveMostCompetitiveRationaleandBDAAnalysisPositioning:Positioningisthefoundationforautomakingbutnotconsequentialforassessingnewentrants’capabilitiesastheycancatchupthroughdirectcopyingoroutsourcingtothirdpartiesR&D:

GlobalOEMshaveaccumulatedabundantmanufacturingknow-howinkeyelectricpartsandlightweightchassis,leavingdomesticOEMsandnewentrantsdecadesofyearstocatchupSupplyChainManagement(SCM):Withprovenrecordsandguaranteeddemandvolume,suppliersareoftenwillingtoputmoreeffortintoandprovidemorediscounttotraditionalOEMsinsteadofnewentrantsQualityControl:Ittakesalmostayearforproductionatnewlybuiltfactoriestoscaleup;establishedOEMshaveaccumulatedvaluableexperienceinQCmanagementSalesandMarketing(S&M):TraditionalOEMscanleverageestablisheddealershipnetworkforNEVsalesfaroutpacingemergingstartupsAsforpipeline,mainstreamOEMsareexpectedtotakeoffafter2020withclearstrategicplanningandmorehigh-performanceNEVmodelsonsale15Source:BDAanalysisStrategyPlanningofNewEnergyVehicles,2017–2025FNo.ofNEVandDiesel-poweredModelsonSalebyMainstreamOEMs1,2020FUnit:#ModelsNote:1.Compiledpipelinesof77autobrandsinChina.NEVDiesel-PoweredSUVOthers151224BMW:BMWannounceditwilllaunchnineNEVmodelsfromits5seriesinChina;nextgenerationenergyvehicleplatformIisstillintheR&DstageandisexpectedtocoverallofBMW’sautoseriesinthefutureVolkswagen:planstolaunchover30NEVmodelsby2025;AudidivisionwillreleasefiveNEVmodelsincludingSUVswith500kmbatteryrangeMercedes:planstolaunch10PHEVmodelsby2025andspeedupcommercializationprocessinChinaStageI:StrategicPlanningStageII:MassProductionHonda/Toyota:tolaunchPHEVmodelsinChinaby2018GM:willintroducefourNEVmodelsinChinaby2017andexpectstolaunchEVsunderthebrandsofChevroletandBuickFord:planstolaunch13NEVmodelsby2020BYD:LaunchEVFutureprojectonFeb17andSongEVwillbereleasedonApr17SAIC:launch30NEVmodels(13BEVsand17PHEVs)with600Ksalesvolumetargetbytheendof2020;alsoinvestingRMB20BNby2020onNEVdevelopmentsBAIC:investingRMB10BNinBEVdevelopments;A00EXistobelaunchedin2017,followingbyA0E250/150,BlevelEU300in2018Geely:investingRMB20BN

inNEVR&Dandfactoryconstruction201720202025Assuch,foremergingplayerswithlesscompetitiveadvantage,it’svitaltostrikefirstandcapturethemarketbeforedirectcompetitionwithmainstreamOEMs;2017-2020willbethekeytimewindowforthemtosurviveandthrive16Source:BDAanalysisTopNotch:NEVsinitiatedbytraditionalOEMsdecadesago;besideshavinganedgeinR&D,existingplayerscanalsoleverageexistingbrandingimages,productionlinesanddealershipchannelstopromotenewenergyvehiclesalesLagincommercialization:TraditionalOEMs,especiallyglobalbrandswerehesitantintheNEVcommercializationprocessastheyhopedtosqueezeexcisingplatforms’remainingprofitandheldconcernsaboutNEVperformanceWakening:Astechnologyadvancedandregulationsintensified,theyalreadyshiftedmorefocustoNEVsectorsandareexpectedtocomeupwithmorehighperformancemodelsintheupcoming2-3years“Autoindustryiscomplexandneedsyearsofoperation,coordinationandknow-howaccumulation;takeGeelyasanexample,ittook10-20years’developmentbeforeitcouldenterthetoptieramongdomesticbrands.Startupshavealongwaytogoeventhoughtheycanrelyonsuppliersforkeycomponentslikebattery.”--IndustryExpertTraditionalOEMs’InitiativesTimeWindowforNewEntrants-2020“OEMsspentmassivelyonexistingvehicleplatformsandwon’tlaunchnewenergyvehiclebeforemakingprofit.”--IndustryExpert“2020isamilestoneforNEVasmostmainstreamEVcarswillcomeintothemarketandsomeEVscouldcompetewithdiesel-poweredvehicles’performances.”--IndustryExpertForstartupswithlessfameandfewerresourcesandR&Dcapabilities,thechancetostandoutlargelydependsonwhethertheycancapturethemarketbeforedirectconfrontationwithestablishedbrandsThegoodnewsisthatnewentrantsstillhaveashortperiodoftimeremainingbefore2020asmainstreamOEMsstillneed2-3yearstocommercializetheirproductsThus,besidescompetitiveanalysisofsalesmodels,anotherkeyindicatorforassessingthechanceofsuccessofstartupswillbetheircommercializationtimeline;BDAwillanalyzeWM’scompetitiveedgeandreasonablenessofmgmt.guidedtimelineinnextsectionStartupsalsohavetocompetewithestablishedbrandsbeyondNEVscopeasentirecarperformancetakesprecedenceoverpowertrainsolutions17Source:BDAanalysisRegardlessofsubsidyandotherregulationsandcontrols,NEVshavenodefinitesafeharborwhencompetingagainsttraditionaldiesel-poweredvehiclesascustomersevaluatethecarsbasedonentirevehicle’svalue-costperformanceinsteadofonlyfocusingonpowersystemsAutomarketisnotseparatedintonewenergyandtraditionaldiesel-poweredwithlittleoverlap;instead,mostcustomerswillmaketheirdecisionsbasedoncomprehensiveanalysisofallavailableoptionsincludingbothNEVandtraditionalcars,theirpricesandperformancesEntirevehicleperformancesdependnotonlyonpowertrainsystemsbutalsoonhandling,braking,safety,ADASandotherkeyparts;astheautoindustryiscomplexinvolvingvarioussophisticatedcomponentsandparts,onlybreakthroughsinbatterysolutionswillnotsufficeThus,ifstartupscansuccessfullyreleasenewenergyvehiclesaheadoftime,theystillneedtocompetewithtraditionaldiesel-poweredmodelsinmarketLaunchingnewmodelsbeforeestablishedbrandswon’tsuffice;thesuccessofstartup’sproductwilldependonitsvalueperformanceandcompetitivenesswithexistingmodelsinthesamepricerange“IwillfirstsetupabudgetfornewcarandevaluateallavailableoptionsonsalesincludingNEVanddiesel-poweredvehicles.”--ConsumerIDI“Icareaboutthecardesign,performanceandpricerangemost;Iamopentonewenergyvehiclesbutafraidthetechisstillnotmatureyet”.--ConsumerIDI“NEVisanoptionbutvehiclesbelongtodurablegoods;IamnotrushingintoNEVjustforfreshnewconcepts”.--ConsumerIDI“ExceptTeslawithbrandingimage,Iwon’tconsiderbuyingnewenergyvehiclesfirstastheystillsuckandhavelowperformance”.--ConsumerIDICompetitionScopeNEVStartupsAllNEVsAllVehicles(Diesel-poweredvehiclesincluded）WMplannedtocompleteitswholeR&Dprocesswithintwoyearsbyskippingcertainsimulatortests,reversingdevelopmentandshorteningfieldtestperiods…18WMSource:Companyinfo,BDAinterviewandanalysisMuleCarDesignSimulatorforTestEngineeringPrototypeforFieldTestPPforSmallProductionComparisonofNEVR&DTimelineGeelySkipSimulatorCarProcess:OurchannelcheckindicatesthatWMhaschosentoskipquiteafewsoftfilmmodulesteststagesbycopyingmaturedOEMs’designandexperienceLeverageT1s’standardsinsteadofself-development:BoschindicatedthatWMchosestandardproducts(reverse)insteadofforwarddeveloping8-10months~1yearOneWinter+OneSummer:WMplannedtoconductextremesituationtestsfrommulecarstageslasting~1yearwithonewinterandonesummer4-5months6-7monthsNecessityofSimulatorStage:usesoftfilmmodulestoproducekeypartsandcomponentsfordebuggingandtotestnewmodelandplatformdevelopmentTwoWinters+OneSummer:atleasttworoundsofwinterroadtestsForwardDeveloping:self-developvehicleplatformsandasksupplierstodevelopmentcomponentsbasedonOEM’ssolutions2yearsInordertocompleteallR&Dprocedureswithintwoyears,WMhasdeliberatelyskippedcertainstandardproceduresandshortenedroadtestperiods“WehadatightscheduleforR&Dandfranklyspeaking,oursalestargetforfirstmodel