BOA-全球基金经理调查 -Global Fund Manager Survey In Soft We Trust 20240716

GlobalFundManagerSurvey

InSoftWeTrust

Accessibleversion

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

BofASECURITIES

BofAJulyGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BottomLine:FMSinvestorsremainbullishdrivenbyFedratecuts&softlanding;JulygrowthexpectationslowerandFMScashlevelupto4.1%butchangein“longequity-shortbond”convictionawaitsshocktosoftlandingnarrative(andpoliticsentrenchingexistingconviction);BofABull&BearIndicatorremainsat6.3.

FMSonGrowth:globalgrowthexpectationsfallfrom-6%to-27%(net),largestdropsinceMar’22(Chart);butinvestorsveryoptimisticon“softlanding”(68%)versus“nolanding”(18%)or“hardlanding”(11%);67%expectnorecessioninnext12months.

FMSonRates:“higherinflation”nolonger#1tailrisk(now“geopolitics”);investorssaymonetarypolicymost“restrictive”sinceNov’08;87%expectlowerrates,81%asteeperyieldcurve,62%predictaminimumthreecutsbyFednext12months,startingSept18th.

FMSonAssetAllocation:ratecuts+softlanding…assetallocatorsstayOWstocks(net33%)&UWbonds(net-9%);notableextremesinJuly…UWinREITsbiggestsinceJan'09,largestfallinEUequityexposuresinceJul’22,firstOWinutilitiessinceFeb’09,and“longMagnificent7”most“crowdedFMStrade”byacountrymile(71%).

FMSonPolitics:investorssaytradepolicytobemostimpactedbyUSelection;askedforimpactofUSelection‘sweep’(samepartywinsWhiteHouse&Congress),77%sayhigherbondyields,52%sayhigherUSdollar,48%sayhigherUSstocks(vs29%lower).

FMSContrarianTrades:basedonJulyFMSabsolute/relativeextremes,contrariantradesarelongcashvs.stocks,longEuropevs.USequities,longsmallvs.largecapstocks,longdiscretionaryvstech.

Chart1:Globalgrowthexpectationsdown,butJulyFMSmoreoptimisticonsoftlandingNet%FMSexpectingtheglobaleconomytogetstrongernext12monthsvsS&P500(YoY%)

150Net%ExpectingStrongerEconomyS&P500(YoY%,RHS)70%

10050%

30%50

10%

0

-10%

Jan'19

-50

-30%

Oct'98

Dec'00

Mar'20

-100Jul'08Jul'22-50%

'94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey,Bloomberg

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies.

>>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystundertheFINRArules.

Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattakeresponsibilityfortheinformationhereininparticularjurisdictions.

BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearch

reports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof

interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage25to27.12714150

Timestamp:16July202412:30AMEDT

16July2024

InvestmentStrategyGlobal

BofA

Data

Analytics

MichaelHartnett

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468551508

michael.hartnett@

ElyasGalou>>

InvestmentStrategistBofASE(France)

+33187700087

elyas.galou@

AnyaShelekhin

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468553753

anya.shelekhin@

Myung-JeeJung

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468550389

myung-jee.jung@

NotestoReaders

Sourceforalltablesandcharts:BofAFundManagerSurvey,

DataStream

Surveyperiod5thto11thJuly2024

242panellistswith$632bnAUM

participatedintheJulysurvey.209participantswith$560bnAUM

respondedtotheGlobalFMS

questionsand134participantswith$262bnAUMrespondedtothe

RegionalFMSquestions.

HowtojointheFMSpanel

Investors/clientsareencouragedtosignuptoparticipateintheSurvey.Thiscanbedonebycontacting

MichaelHartnettoryourBofAsalesrepresentative.

Participantsinthesurveywillcontinuetoreceivethefullsetofmonthly

resultsbutonlyfortherelevantmonthinwhichtheyparticipate.

OW:overweight;UW:underweightAA:assetallocation

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

2GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

ChartsoftheMonth

IntheJulyGlobalFundManagersSurvey,

globalgrowthexpectationsfell,andFMS

Chart2:FMScashlevelrisesto4.1%from4.0%FMSaveragecashlevel(%ofAUM)

aFMSaveragecashlevel(%ofAUM)

May'00

O

investorcashlevelroseslightlyto4.1%from4.0%.

8

Feb'01

7

Oct'22

Oct'01

Oct'16

O

Apr'20

O

6

Dec'08

O

Jun'12

O

Mar'03

O

5

4.1%

O

4

3

'11'13

'09

'19'21'23'25

'15'17

'99'01'03'05'07

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart3:39%thinkthatmonetarypolicyis'toorestrictive'%ofFMSthatthinkmonetarypolicyis'toorestrictive'

70

Mar'01

60

50

Jul'24

40

Mar'20

20

10

0

'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

%FMSinvestorssaymonetarypolicy'toorestrctive'"

Oct'08

30

Chart4:68%say"softlanding,"18%"nolanding,"11%"hardlanding"

Whatisthemostlikelyoutcomefortheglobaleconomyinthenext12months?

NolandingSoftlandingHardlanding

7%11%5%11%

21%20%21%

54%

56%64%

68%

65%64%

59%

36%

19%

5%7%6%7%

4%3%4%

11%11%

21%23%

27%26%

63%64%

9%11%

30%

31%

26%

23%

67%

66%

68%

62%

65%

71%

17%

18%

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Monetarypolicyistoorestrictiveaccordingto39%ofinvestors,themostrestrictivesinceNov'08…

…butthisinturndeepensthebeliefthatglobalinterestratesaresettofalloverthenext12months.

FMSinvestorsareoptimisticthatmonetary

easingwillgeneratea“softlanding”(68%seethisasthemostlikelyoutcomefortheglobaleconomy).

18%ofFMSinvestorsexpect“nolanding”(6-monthlow),while11%seea“hardlanding.”

Webelieve“hardlanding”risksareunderpricedgiventheslowdownofUSconsumer,labor

market,governmentspending…thismakesusmostbullishonbondsandgoldinH2’24.

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July20243

Chart5:USgrowthexpectationsat7-monthlow

Net%FMSexpectingastrongerUSeconomyoverthenext12months

%FMSinvestorsexpectingstronger/weakerUSeconomy

30

StrongerUS

10

-10

-30

-50

WeakerUS

-70

-90

Nov-21Mar-22Jul-22Nov-22Mar-23Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24Jul-24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart6:Expectationsforarecessioninnext12monthsremainlowNet%sayingrecessionlikelyforglobaleconomynext12months

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Mar'09%FMSsayingrecessionunlikelyApr'20Nov'22

'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

10

0

Chart7:46%seenorecessionfortheUSwithinthenext18monthsWhendoyouexpecttheUSeconomytofallintorecession?

46%

Norecessioninnext18months

24%

H1'25

16%

Jul-24Jun-24May-24

H2'25

8%

H2'24

0

6070

1020304050

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

FMSinvestors’globalgrowthexpectationsweakenedtonet27%expectingaweakereconomy(fromnet6%–seeChart1).

Theriseinglobalgrowthpessimismthis

monthisdriveninpartbyamorenegativeoutlookonUSgrowth…net53%ofFMS

investorsexpecttheUSeconomytoweaken,themostsinceDec'23.

TwooutofthreeFMSinvestorsstilldonot

expectaglobalrecessioninthenext12

months(67%sayarecessionisunlikely,downslightlyfrom73%inJune)…

…as46%ofFMSinvestorsstillexpecttheUSeconomytododgearecessioninthenext18months.

24%expectaUSrecessioninH1’25,16%inH2’25,andonly8%inH2’24.

4GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

Chart8:"Geopoliticalconflict"overtakes"higherinflation"asthe#1tailriskWhatdoyouconsiderthebiggest"tailrisk"?

26%

22%

18%

12%

12%

7%

GeopoliticalconflictHigherinflation

USrecession/hardlandingAIbubble

Jul-24Jun-24May-24

USelection"sweep"Systemiccreditevent

051015202530354045

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart9:56%expectthe1stFedcuttobeattheSeptemberFOMCWhendoexpecttheFedwillfirstcutinterestrates?

Sep18thNov7thDec18thJan29th

July31st

Fedwillnotcutratesnext12months

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

56%

18%

13%

4%

3%

3%

Jul-24Jun-24

0102030405060

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart10:84%expect2,3ormoreFedratecuts

40%

WhatisthemostlikelymovefortheFedinthenext12months?

22%

3cuts

2cuts

22%

11%

Jul-24Jun-24May-24

3%

0%

Morethan3cuts 1cutNochange1hike

05101520253035404550

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

26%ofFMSinvestorssay"geopolitical

conflict"isthebiggesttailrisk(upfrom22%inJune),overtaking"higherinflation"asthe#1tailriskforthefirsttimeinsixmonths.

Globalinvestorsarebullishoncentralbankratecuts.

56%ofFMSinvestorsexpecttheFedtofirstcutratesattheSep18thFOMC.

87%ofFMSinvestorsexpectthefirstFedcuttohappeninH2’24.

84%expectatleasttwoFedratecutsoverthenext12months(22%saytwocuts,40%say

threecuts,22%saymorethanthreecuts).

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July20245

Chart11:FMSinvestorsmostunderweightrealestatesinceJan'09Net%FMSOverweightRealEstate

30

Net%FMSOWRealEstate

20

10

0

-10

-20

Aug'23

-30

Jul'24

Dec'08

-40

'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart12:BiggestmonthlydropinEurozoneallocationsinceJul'22MoMpptchangeinFMSnet%overweightEurozoneequities

40

nNet%OWEurozoneequities(MoM,ppt)

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Jul'24

-30

-40

-50

'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart13:FMSinvestorsareoverweightutilitiesforthe1sttimesinceFeb'09FMSNet%OverweightUtilities

20Dec.n'08Net%OWUtilities

10Jul'24

0______________山l__________________________________o

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

AssetallocatorsremainOWstocks&UWbonds.

Onthatnote,FMSinvestorscontinueto

reduceallocationtorealestatedowntonet29%UW,thelowestallocationsinceJan’09.

EquityinvestorsaremostoverweighttheUSmarket.

InJuly,allocationtoEurozoneequitiesfelltonet10%OW,down20pptMoM(thelargestmonthlydropsinceJul’22).

EquityinvestorsaremostOWhealthcare,tech&telecoms.

NoteFMSinvestorsturnedoverweightutilities(abond-sensitivesector)forthefirsttime

sinceFeb'09,raisingallocationby20pptMoM(thebiggestmonthlyincreaseonrecord).

6GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

Chart14:"LongMagnificent7"themostcrowdedtradeWhatdoyouthinkiscurrentlythemostcrowdedtrade?

LongMagnificent7

ShortJapaneseyen

5%

5%

4%

ShortChinaequitiesShortsmallcapstocksLongGold

0510

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

71%

12%

Jul-24Jun-24May-24

15202530354045505560657075

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart15:InvestorssplitonwhetherornotAIisabubbleDoyouthinkthatAIstocksareinabubble?

45%

No

43%

Jul-24Jun-24May-24

5060

Yes

203040

010

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart16:FMSinvestorsviewtradepolicyasmostlikelytobeimpactedbyUSelectionWhichofthefollowingpolicyareasarelikelytobeimpactedthemostbytheUSelection?

Trade

Immigration GeopoliticsGovernmentspendingTaxation

2%

Energy

0

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

48%

15%

13%

10%

9%

Jul-24Jun-24

102030405060

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

71%ofFMSinvestorsthink"LongMagnificent

7"isthemostcrowdedtrade(biggest

crowdingsince“LongUSTech”inOct’20).

Julymarksthe16thconsecutivemonththat“LongMagnificent7”hasbeenthemostcrowdedtrade.

45%ofthesurveydonotthinkAIisabubble;butarising43%ofinvestorsdothinkAIisinabubble.

TurningtoUSpolitics,tradepolicyisviewedasthemostlikelyareatobeimpactedbytheUSelectionper48%ofFMSinvestors,

followedbyimmigration(15%),andgeopolitics(13%).

Only9%expecttaxation,and2%expectenergypolicytobeimpacted.

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July20247

Chart17:MajoritythinkUSelection“sweep”=higherbondyields

WhatdoyouthinktheimpactofaUSelection“sweep”wouldbeonthe10yrUSTreasuryyield?

77%

Higherbondyields

8%

Jul-24

Lowerbondyields

0102030405060708090

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey.“sweep”=samepartywinningWhiteHouse&Congress

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart18:52%expectahigherUSdollarifelectionresultisa“sweep”

WhatdoyouthinktheimpactofaUSelection“sweep”wouldbeontheUSdollar?

HigherUSdollar

52%

LowerUSdollar

22%

Jul-24

0102030405060

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey.“sweep”=samepartywinningWhiteHouse&Congress

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart19:48%viewUSelection“sweep”aspositiveforUSstocks

WhatdoyouthinktheimpactofaUSelection“sweep”wouldbeontheS&P500?

Positive

48%

Negative

Jul-24

29%

010203040

5060

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey.“sweep”=samepartywinningWhiteHouse&Congress

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

AskedabouttheimpactofaUSelection

“sweep”(onepartywinsboththeWhiteHouse&Congress)…

…77%saytheyexpecthigher10-yearUSTreasuryyields….

…52%saytheyexpectahigherUSdollar…

…and48%viewa“sweep”aspositiveforUSstocks.

8GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

Chart20:Julyrotationintoutilities,US/EM/UKvsoutofEurozone,commodities,andconsumerMoMpptchangeinFMSinvestorpositioning

UtilitiesUS

EM UK BondsMaterials Staples EnergyCash

Teleop

Healthcare

Tech

Industrials

Banks

Insurance

Equities

Jul'24GlobalFMS

MoMpptchgininvestorpositioning

REITs

Discretionary

Commod

Eurozone

-20ppt-15ppt-10ppt-5ppt+0ppt+5ppt+10ppt+15ppt+20ppt+25ppt

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart21:FMSnetOWequities,healthcare,andtechvsUWREITs,consumer,andbondsFMSabsolutepositioning(net%overweight)

Equities

Healthcare

Tech

US

Eurozone

EM

Japanmm

Banks

Staples

Utilities

Industrials

Cash

MaterialsEnergy

Commod

DiscretionaryAbsolutenet%OW

BonJul'24GlobalFMS

REITs

-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025303540

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart22:Relativetohistory,FMSOWutilities,bonds,andUSvsUWREITs,cash,andindustrialsFMSpositioningvshistory(z-score)

UtilitiesBonds

US

UK

Telecoms

Healthcare

Banks

Staples

Equities

Japan

Materials

Insurance

Tech

Commod

Eurozone

Jul'24GlobalFMS

Positioningvshistory(z-score)

Discretionary

EM

Energy

Industrials

Cash

REITs

-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.0

0.51.01.52.02.5

-2.5

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

ThischartshowsJuly’sMoMchangesinFMSinvestorallocation.

InJuly,investorsincreasedallocationtoutilities,US,EM,andUK…

…andreducedallocationtoEurozone,

commodities,andconsumerdiscretionary.

ThischartshowsabsoluteFMSinvestorpositioning(net%overweight).

InvestorsaremostOWequities,healthcare,tech,andUS,andmostUWREITs,consumerdiscretionary,andbonds.

ThischartshowsFMSinvestorpositioningrelativetotheaveragelong-termpositioning(past~20years).

Relativetohistory,investorsarelongutilities,bonds,andtheUS…

…andareunderweightREITs,cash,andindustrials.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July20249

Chart23:EvolutionofGlobalFMS“biggesttailrisk”HistoryofGlobalFMS“biggesttailrisk”answers

•

Geopoliticalconflict

Recession

Geopoliticsworsen

Jul-24Apr-24Jan-24Oct-23Jul-23Apr-23Jan-23Oct-22Jul-22Apr-22Jan-22Oct-21Jul-21Apr-21Jan-21Oct-20Jul-20Apr-20Jan-20Oct-19Jul-19Apr-19Jan-19Oct-18Jul-18Apr-18Jan-18Oct-17Jul-17Apr-17Jan-17Oct-16Jul-16Apr-16Jan-16Oct-15Jul-15Apr-15Jan-15Oct-14Jul-14Apr-14Jan-14Oct-13Jul-13Apr-13Jan-13Oct-12Jul-12Apr-12Jan-12Oct-11Jul-11

Inflation/

Creditcrunch

Hawkish

CentralBanks

Recession

Russia-Ukraine

Coronavirus

2020US

Presidentialelection

US-ChinaTradeWar

Fed,ECB,

PBoCPolicyMistake

NorthKorea

EU

disintegration

Trumpelection

China

"hardlanding"

Geopoliticalcrisis

China

"hardlanding"

US"fiscalcliff"

EU

sovereign

debtfunding

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

70

0102030405060

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Thischartshowsthefullhistoryofthebiggest“tailrisk”formarketsfromBofA’smonthlyGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

•Thedominantconcernsofinvestorssince2011havebeenEurozonedebt&

potentialbreakdown;Chinesegrowth;populism,quantitativetightening&tradewars,globalcoronavirus;nowinflation/bondtantrumandcentralbankratehikes.

•Geopoliticalconflictthetop“tailrisk”per26%ofFMSinvestors;#2Higherinflation(22%),#3USrecession(18%).

10GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

Chart24:EvolutionofGlobalFMS“mostcrowdedtrade”HistoryofGlobalFMS“mostcrowdedtrade”answers

}

LongbigTechLongChinaequities

LongEuropeanequities

LongCommodities

Longbitcoin

Longbitcoin

LongUSgrowthstocks

LongCash

LongUSgrowthstocks

ShortEuropeanequities

LongEM

LongUS$

ShortVolatilityLongFAANG+BAT

Longbitcoin

Longbitcoin

LongUS$ShortEMEquities

——ShortEMEquities

LongUS$

Jul-24Apr-24Jan-24Oct-23Jul-23Apr-23Jan-23Oct-22Jul-22Apr-22Jan-22Oct-21Jul-21Apr-21Jan-21Oct-20Jul-20Apr-20Jan-20Oct-19Jul-19Apr-19Jan-19Oct-18Jul-18Apr-18Jan-18Oct-17Jul-17Apr-17Jan-17Oct-16Jul-16Apr-16Jan-16Oct-15Jul-15Apr-15Jan-15Oct-14

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

Long

Magnificent7

LongUS$

Longoil

LongUStech

LongNasdaq

LongUS$

LongQualityStocks

LongUS$

90%

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

•Thischartshowsthefullhistoryofthemost“crowdedtrade”accordingtoBofA’smonthlyGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

•Themarketleadershiphasbeenrelativelynarrowsince2013,shiftingfromhigh

yieldingdebt;longUS$;longQuality;longTech;longEmergingMarkets;longUS

Treasuries,longUStech&growthstocks,longBitcoin,longcommodities,longtech,longcommodities,longUSdollar,andlongMagnificentSeven.

•LongMagnificent7isconsideredthemostcrowdedtrade(per71%ofinvestors)followedby#2ShortJapaneseyen(12%),#3ShortChinaequities(5%)Shortsmallcapstocks(5%).

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July202411

BofAGlobalFMSRules&Tools

TheGlobalFMSRules&Toolsaredesignedtohelpinvestorsdetermineriskappetite,rotationopportunities,andtacticalentrypoints.

Table1:BofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBull&BearIndicator

CurrentreadingofBofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBull&BearIndicator

Category

Currentreading

Currentsignal

BofAGlobalFMSCashRule

Contrarian

4.1%

Neutral

Buyglobalequitieswhencashatorabove5.0%;sellwhencashatorbelow4.0%

BofABull&BearIndicator

Contrarian

6.3

Neutral

Buyglobalequitieswhentheindicatorfallsbelow2.0;sellwhenitrisesabove8.0Source:BofAGlobalInvestmentStrategy

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Disclaimer:TheindicatorsidentifiedasBofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBofABull&BearIndicatoraboveareintendedtobeindicativemetricsonlyandmaynotbeusedforreferencepurposesorasameasureof

performanceforanyfinancialinstrumentorcontract,orotherwiserelieduponbythirdpartiesforanyotherpurpose,withoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBofAGlobalResearch.Theseindicatorswerenotcreatedtoactasabenchmark.

Forfulldetailspleasesee:GlobalInvestmentStrategy:TheBofAGlobalFMSRules&Tools,12November2020.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

12GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July2024

InvestorsontheMacro

Chart25:Net%ofFMSinvestorswhoseeastrongerglobaleconomyinnext12monthsNet%ofFMSinvestorsexpectingstrongereconomy

80

100Net%ExpectingStrongerEconomy

40

60

0

20

-40

●

-20

-80

-60

-100

'95'97'99'01'03'05'07'09'11'13'15'17'19'21'23'25

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

JulyFMSshowednet27%ofinvestors

expectingaweakereconomyinthenext12months.

Sentimentontheeconomycollapsed21pptMoMtoa6-monthlow.

Chart26:HowFMSinvestorswoulddescribetheglobaleconomyoverthenext12monthsFMSexpectationsfortheglobaleconomyoverthenext12months?

Above-trendgrowthandabove-trendinflationBelow-trendgrowthandbelow-trendinflation

Above-trendgrowthandbelow-trendinflationBelow-trendgrowthandabove-trendinflation

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

'08

'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24

Source:

BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart27:Net%ofFMSinvestorsthatthinkglobalCPI(inYoYterms)willbehigherNet%ofFMSinvestorsexpectinghigherinflation

100——Net%ExpectingHigherGlobalCPI

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

'03'05'07'09'11'13'15'17'19'21'23'25

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

65%ofFMSinvestorsthink“below-trend

growthandabove-trendinflation”isthemostlikelyscenariofortheglobaleconomyoverthenext12months.

13%expect“above-trendgrowthandabove-trendinflation”,15%say“below-trendgrowth

andbelow-trendinflation”,and4%say“above-trendgrowthandbelow-trendinflation.”

Net62%expectglobalCPItobelowerin12months’time,up5pptMoM.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|16July202413

InvestorRiskAppetite

Chart28:Expectationsforinvestmentperformanceoverthenext12monthsOverthenext12months,net%FMSinvestorsthink…

HighQualEarningswillbeatLowQualEarningsHighGradewillbeatHighYieldBonds