麦肯锡管理咨询公司培训课件-能源行业分析

txho/11022ho0402color.ppt0TODAY’SDISCUSSIONCapitalmarkets:ruthlessdriverofinnovationCreativedestructionintheEnergyIndustryWhatcanHoustondotoleadinnovationinEnergy?txho/11022ho0402color.ppt1LONG-TERMSURVIVALISDIFFICULT,ANDGETTINGMORESO

Note: Numberofexitsaveragedovertwentyyearperiod Source: McKinseyanalysis19351955197519952005ETheS&P500isabrutal,unemotionalyardstickofperformanceThepaceofchangeisacceleratingImpliedlifetimeinS&P500basedoncompanyexitsinyearstxho/11022ho0402color.ppt2MARKETSWININTHELONGTERMOverallperformanceofS&P500wouldhavebeen…ifitweremadeupofthosecompaniesonthelistin1957about20%lessperyear…

txho/11022ho0402color.ppt3HISTORICALPERFORMANCEHASBEENANALYZEDUSINGTHEMcKINSEYLONG-TERMPERFORMANCEDATABASE(PDB)

PDBoverviewEnergysectorsFinancialdata(60items)for1,067companiesin16industriesfortheperiod1962-2000*IndustryNumberofcompaniesAirlines23CommodityChemicals36SpecialtyChemicals47Defense28MedicalSupplies66Software171Paper47Pharmaceuticals101Soap24Transportation25Semiconductors55Utilities104Oil170Telecommunications55IndustriesInterestingdynamicstoanalyzeMorethan10playerswith50%

ofsalesintherelevantSICcategoryCompaniesU.S.-basedBelongedtoapredeterminedSICcodeObtainedatleast50%oftheirsalesfromspecifiedSICcode(“pure-play”)Hadamarketcapwithinthetop80%ofallmarketcapvaluesCompaniesthatIPOedinlast4yearsmetbothmarketcapandpureplaycriteriaforthelast2yearsCompanieswereremovedonlywhentheymerged,gotacquiredorwentbankruptSelectioncriteriaTotal

Energysubtotal2741,067Computerhardware73Network42 * Currently2000datahasbeenupdatedonlyforhightechcompaniesSource: McKinsey’slong-termperformancedatabasetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt4Source: McKinseyperformancedatabaseACROSSALLMAJORINDUSTRYSECTORS,NONEHASEXHIBITEDSUSTAINEDOUTPERFORMANCE..EconomynormalrangePharmaceuticalsDefenceTelecomToiletries7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economytxho/11022ho0402color.ppt5Source: McKinseyperformancedatabase...INFACT,MANYINDUSTRIESRARELYORNEVEROUTPERFORMAirlinesPaperCommodityChemicalsSpecialtyChemicals7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyEconomynormalrangetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt6IFYOU’REASURVIVOR,YOU’VEPROBABLYUNDERPERFORMEDTHEMARKET * CompaniesthatwereonthefirstS&P500listin1957andremainedonthelistthrough1995 Source: McKinseyanalysis,McKinseycorporateperformancedatabase7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Long-termsurvivorsvs.economyEconomynormalrange(90%confidenceband)EconomyreturnEconomysurvivors*txho/11022ho0402color.ppt7OUTPERFORMANCECOMESFROMATTACKERS * Threeyearrollingaverage1962-95 Source: McKinseyanalysis;McKinseycorporateperformancedatabaseYearsinsampleTRSrelativetoindustryaverage15101520-10%-5%0%5%10%15%25Survivor’s

curseTotalreturntoshareholdersrelativetoindustryof“newentrants”intotop80%bymarketcap*Attacker’sadvantage..becomes…txho/11022ho0402color.ppt8SURVIVORSUNDERPERFORMBECAUSETHEYFAILTOCREATE,INNOVATE,ANDEXITQUICKLYENOUGHThesurvivor’smentalmodelfocusesonprotectingthecorebusinessSurvivorsareparalyzedbyfearofProductcannibalizationCustomerconflictDilutiveacquisitionSurvivorssufferfromculturallock-inSalesTimeVision,ideas,passionInabilitytoinnovateFocusonoperationsDenialRationalityCreationandinnovationtxho/11022ho0402color.ppt9StockpriceCAGR44%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#2onlinebrokerwith~20%oftotalonlineretailbrokeragemarketaccountsLaunchesonlinetradingSchwabassemblessecretdevelopmentteamCREATINGOPTIONS:CANNIBALIZINGDIRECTCHANNELSATSCHWABOnlinetradingbecomescorebusiness

Source: Literaturesearch,companyreports,Bloomberg,McKinseyanalysisPercentchangeinstockpricesinceJan92SchwabS&P500S&PFinancetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt10

Source: Datastream,companyreports,LiteraturesearchDivestedpaper,rubberAcquiredmobilephonemanufacturerDivestedcableandmachinedivisionsDivestedpowerDivestedcablemachineryandNokiatiresDivestedtelevisions,chemicalsandcablesStockpriceCAGR63%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#1worldmarketshareofcellphones(~32%)DivesteddataoperationsDESTROYING:NOKIA–FROMCONGLOMERATETOWORLD’SLARGESTPHONEMANUFACTURERPercentchangeinstockpricesinceJan90NokiaS&P500txho/11022ho0402color.ppt11TODAY’SDISCUSSIONCapitalmarkets:ruthlessdriverofinnovationCreativedestructionintheEnergyIndustryWhatcanHoustondotoleadinnovationinEnergy?txho/11022ho0402color.ppt12Asexpectedinaregulatedindustry,utilitiescloselytrackthegeneraleconomyOilwashithardinthe80’s,buthasbeensteadilyrecoveringPETROLEUMANDUTILITIESVS.

THEECONOMYUtilitiesOil7-yearrollingaverageofnormalizedTRStxho/11022ho0402color.ppt13Inthelongrun,noneoftheplayerclassesdeliverssignificantreturnsbeyondtheeconomyasawholeHowever,returnsforIndependentsandOFSEsappeartobemoresensitivetooilpriceswingsPETROLEUMPLAYERCLASSPERFORMANCEVS.THES&P500MajorsIndependentsOFSEs7-yearrollingaverageofnormalizedTRStxho/11022ho0402color.ppt14INNOVATIONINENERGYEnronDynegyElPasoKinderMorganCompanyBusinessmodel,technologyAcquisition,businessmodelAcquisition,businessmodelAcquisition,businessmodelDriversCulturalrevolutionatagaspipelinecompanythathasredefinedcommoditytradingMid-80’slowtechstart-upsignificantlymoresuccessfulthanthedot-comsWithahighqualitymanagementteam,it’spossibletogrowsignificantlythroughM&APullingthefinancialrestructuringleverhardtoreleasethevalueincapital-heavyassetsActivitytxho/11022ho0402color.ppt15RELIANT–TRANSFORMATIONOFAREGULATEDUTILITYLocalutilityNewbusinessmodelexperimentation1882-1995FoundedasutilitytoservicelocalHoustonmarketEnteredandexitedutilityfuelsbusinessEnteredcableTV(1986)AcquiredinterestsinSouthAmerica(1992)1995-2000EnteredIPPmarketPlantsinCalifornia,IndiaEnteredpowerandgastrading(Currently#4ingas,#3inpower)Investedintelecommunicationsand

e-commerce(REICommunications,GuideS)ExitedSouthAmericanoperationsandCableTV2000-CreatedtwodistinctbusinessesRegulateddistributionUnregulatedwholesalepowerandgasSource: Hoovers;analystreports;pressreleasesBusinessseparationtxho/11022ho0402color.ppt16THEREINVENTIONOFBPPortfoliopruningBusinessmodelinnovationAttackingthroughconsolidation1985-92DivestednoncorelinesofbusinessNutrition(BPNutrition)ComputingServices(Scicon)Coal(BPCoal)Minerals(SelectionTrust)AcquiredstrategiccoreassetsSohioBritoil1992-98Performance-drivenbusinessunitsPeergroup/collaborativeperformancemanagementOutsourcednoncorefunctions(accounting,IT)1998AmocoARCOVastarBurmaCastrolVebatxho/11022ho0402color.ppt17INNOVATIONINTHE

OILINDUSTRYHalliburtonAnadarkoSchlumbergerCoreLabsCompanyAcquisition,technologyAcquisition,technology,businessmodeldestructionAcquisition,technologyAcquisition,businessmodelDriversCementcompanycreatingtheone-stopshopfortheoilpatchEx-pipelinesubsidiaryleveragingdistinctiveexplorationandacquisitiontocreatevaluePioneerinoilfieldtechnologyplaying‘smart’insideandoutsideoftheoilpatchSpun-offsubsidiaryexploitingproventechnologiestodriverevenuegrowthActivitytxho/11022ho0402color.ppt18TODAY’SDISCUSSIONCapitalmarkets:ruthlessdriverofinnovationCreativedestruction