在实现净零排放的路径中驾驭前所未有的电力需求增长 Managing Unprecedented Electricity Demand Growth on the Path to Net Zero Emissions

|WorkshopReport

Managing

Unprecedented

ElectricityDemandGrowthonthe

PathtoNetZeroEmissions

APRIL2024

EFIFOUNDATION

1

ProjectTeam

ErnestJ.Moniz

CEOandPresident

AlexKizer

SeniorVicePresidentandChiefOperatingOfficer

MadelineGottliebSchomburg

DirectorofResearch

MichaelDowney

DeputyChiefOperatingOfficer

TatianaBrucedaSilva

ProjectManagerandContributingSeniorAnalyst

BethDowdy

ResearchFellow

GraceMcInerney

ResearchIntern

AdditionalContributors

JosephS.Hezir

ExecutiveVicePresident,Treasurer

MelanieA.Kenderdine

ExecutiveVicePresident,CorporateSecretary

CommunicationsTeam

DavidEllis

SeniorVicePresidentofPolicyStrategy&Outreach

AliciaMoulton

DeputyDirectorofCommunications

BenCunningham

GraphicDesigner,MGStrategy+Design

CopyEditing

DanielleNarcisse

M.Harris&Co.

JaneHirt

M.Harris&Co.

WorkshopParticipants

ArizonaPublicService(APS)Arnold&Porter

CleanAirTaskForce(CATF)DukeEnergy

Energy+EnvironmentalEconomics(E3)EFIFoundation

Entergy

ElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)

GEVernova

GridStrategiesMicrosoft

NationalAssociationofRegulatoryUtilityCommissioners(NARUC)

NoviStrategies

NewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO)

PJMInterconnection

SouthwestPowerPool(SPP)STACKAmericas

WilkinsonBarkerKnauer,LLP

2

ReportSponsors

TheEFIFoundationwouldliketothankArizonaPublicService(APS),Duke

Energy,andGEVernovaforsponsoringthiswork.Allcontentinthisreportisindependentoftheirsponsorship.

SuggestedCitation:EFIFoundation.“ManagingUnprecedentedElectricityDemandGrowthonthePathtoNetZeroEmissions.”April2024.

©2024EFIFoundation

ThispublicationisavailableasaPDFontheEFIFoundationwebsiteunderaCreativeCommonslicensethatallowscopyinganddistributingthepublication,onlyinitsentirety,aslongasitisattributedtotheEFIFoundationandusedfornoncommercialeducationalorpublicpolicypurposes.

TheEFIFoundationadvancestechnicallygroundedsolutionstoclimatechangethroughevidence-basedanalysis,

thoughtleadership,andcoalition-building.UndertheleadershipofErnestJ.Moniz,the13thU.S.Secretaryof

Energy,theEFIFoundationconductsrigorousresearchtoacceleratethetransitiontoalow-carboneconomythroughinnovationintechnology,policy,andbusinessmodels.EFIFoundationmaintainseditorialindependencefromits

publicandprivatesponsors.

Coverphoto:iStock

©2024EFIFoundation

3

TableofContents

Summary 4

Introduction 5

1.

Recentprojectionsarelikelyunderestimatingactualloadgrowth 8

2.

Region-specificapproachesarenecessaryformanagingnear-termloadgrowth 10

3.

Stakeholderalignmentiscriticaltomeetthedualchallengesofloadgrowth:manage

reliabilityandplanfordeepdecarbonization 15

4.

Stakeholdersareseekingflexibilitytomanageloadgrowthuncertainty 16

Conclusionandnextsteps 19

References 21

ListofFigures

Figure1.NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation’s10-yearloadgrowthforecasttrend 6

Figure2.Regionalgrowthdrivers 8

Figure3.PJM’sprojectedloadgrowth 10

Figure4.U.S.annualelectricitygenerationbysource 12

Figure5.Estimateddatacentergrowthbygridregion 13

4

Summary

AstheUnitedStatesworkstoaddresstheclimatecrisis,theurgentpushfor

decarbonizationstandsinstarkcontrasttotheimmediatechallengesofmanagingnear-termelectricityloadgrowth.Recentincentivestore-shorecleanenergysupplychainsinlegislationliketheInflationReductionAct(IRA),theInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA)andtheCHIPSandScienceActhavepromptedsomeofthesenewload

demands,manyofwhichwillrequirefirmpower24/7.Datacenterproliferationisalsoamajordriverofnear-termloadgrowth,andtherapidexpansionofAIisexacerbating

theirloadrequirements.Inthemid-tolong-term,increasedelectrificationofenduses,suchasvehicles,heatpumpsandsomeindustrialprocesses,compoundtheissue.Tocapitalizeontheseeconomicdevelopmentopportunities,statesandregionsare

seekingcreativesolutionstodealwithloadgrowthsuchasbuildingoutgrid

infrastructureandinvestinginprojectsthatacceleratecleanenergyinnovations.

Theloadgrowthdilemmaisintensifyingthestrainonexistinginfrastructure,and

addressingitrequiresinventivesolutionsandstrategicforesight.Manyutilitieshavedramaticallyincreasedtheirprojectedelectricityloadgrowthandhaveproposed

meetingthisintheneartermbyincreasingtheiruseofexistingand/ornewthermalplants.Thetensionbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandtheassociatedincreased

electricityloadanddeclaredutilitydecarbonizationtargetsinthe2030-timeframehasstimulatedimportantdiscussions.

OnFeb.12,2024,theEFIFoundationhostedagroupofnearly30senior-levelexpertsfromutilities,systemoperators,industry,andnongovernmentalorganizations,aswellasformerpolicymakersandregulators,consumers,andequipment(e.g.,turbine)

manufacturerstodiscusstheimplicationsofrecentpublicannouncementsofunprecedentedloadgrowthacrossmanyregionsofthecountry.

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,

2

,

3

Severalchallengeswereidentifiedattheworkshopthatwillneedtobeaddressedinaneraofdramaticaccelerationinloadgrowth.Theyareasfollows.

1.Loadgrowthisnotuniformacrossthecountryandregionalityimpactsthetoolsavailabletoaddressit.Regionaldifferencesinresourceavailability,includingtheappropriategeologyforcarbonstorageandaccesstowaterresources,aswellastheavailabilityofgenerationresourceslikewindandsolarmeansthat

strategiesforaddressingloadgrowthmustbetailoredtoregionalresources,infrastructureneeds,andlimitations,particularlyinthenearterm.

2.Loadgrowthislikelytofurtheraccelerate.Datacentersdominatetheheadlinestoday,butnewmanufacturingcombinedwithelectrificationoftransportation,

spaceheating,andindustrywillplaceevengreaterstrainonthegridinthecomingdecades.

3.Ensuringreliabilityandresiliencyisparamount.Whilegrid-enhancing

technologiesandstoragesolutionsmaylessennear-termloadgrowth

challenges,newgas-firedgenerationcapacitywillcomeonlinetoprovidefirmpower.Asaresult,powersectoremissionsmayriseintheshortterm,while

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generationandtransmissionwithlongerleadtimeswilladdressemissionsinthelongerterm.

4.Policiesneedtobeharmonized.Newproposalsseektolimitpowersector

emissionsinthewakeofrecentpoliciespromotingelectrification.These

proposalsmayconstrainthesector’sabilitytomeetincreasingloaddemands.IftheU.S.continuestoencourageelectrification,complementarypolicieswillbeneededtoexpeditegridmodernization.

5.Verylarge,unexpectedloadslikegigawatt-sizeddatacentercampusescouldrequireutilitiestorethinktheirfive-yearplans.Longerterm,gridmanagersmayalsoneedtocreatetheframeworksandtheassociatedregulatorystructurestoenablemoreproactiveinfrastructurebuildout.

6.Thoughthethreatoflitigationhaslongbeenconsideredaseriousimpedimenttobuildingoutnewinfrastructure,ithasincreasedinprevalenceandnowseemstopervadetheentirepoliticalspectrum.

Introduction

Theeconomywidetransitiontonetzeroemissionswillrelyheavilyonsuccessfully

decarbonizingthepowersector.Foryears,relativelyflatpowerdemandprovidedgridoperatorsaclearandcertainviewofthescaleofcleanenergyresourcesneededtoreachzerocarbonemissions.Now,driveninpartbymassiveincentivesindomestic

manufacturing;trendsinelectrificationoftransportation,buildings,andindustry;cleanenergytargetsacrosstheeconomy;andnewinvestmentsindatacentersandartificialintelligence,thepaceofelectricityloadgrowthcouldnearlydoubleoreventripleoverthenextfiveyears(Figure1).

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,

a

Theseloadgrowthtrendshavepotentiallyparadigm-shiftingimplicationsforthepowersector,affectingsystem-widereliabilityinthenear-termandchangingthecourseofdeepdecarbonizationinthemid-term.

aElectricityloadistheamountofpowerrequiredtomeetthedemandsofallcustomersonthegrid.Forexample,anewdatacentermayrequire750megawatts(MW)ofpowercapacity.Onceitisconnectedtothegrid,thedata

centeradds750MWofload.Gridmanagersarenowfacingthechallengeofservinganunexpectedgrowthinnewload.

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Figure1.NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation’s10-yearloadgrowthforecasttrend

Forthelastdecade,gridplannershaveforecastonly0.5%annualelectricityloadgrowth,asreportedbytheNorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation.However,in2023,thatforecastchangedto0.9%,asindicatedbytheblueboxinthegraph.Regionalutilityprofilefilingshaverevealedthatelectricityloadwilllikelyincreaseevenmorethanthat.Adaptedfrom:NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation,Long-TermReliabilityAssessment,December2022,p.20,SupplementalTableF,

/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

HeldunderChathamHouseRule

b

,theprivateEFIFoundationLoadGrowthWorkshopwasdesignedtoelicitstakeholderdiscussionofboththeopportunitiesandchallengesoftheserecenttrends,addressingthefollowingquestions:

•Whatiscontributingtothepotentiallyparadigm-shiftingchangesinnear-andmidtermloadgrowthforecasts?

•Whataretheimmediateneedsformeetingelectricitydemandinthenextonetofiveyears,andhowcanstakeholdersstayontracktodecarbonizethesectorbymidcentury?

•Howcanlonger-termplanningandcoordinationefficientlyenablethetransitiontoareliable,carbon-freeelectricitygridbymidcentury?

Theworkshopdiscussionmadeclearthatstakeholdersaregrapplingwithanewreality.Previouslyunforeseenloadgrowthpresentschallengeswithrespecttocontinuingcoalplantretirements,integratingrenewables,andmaintainingreliability.However,onthe

pathtolong-termclimategoals,utilities,systemoperators,andpolicymakersalsohave

bUnattributedquotesthroughoutthereportoriginatefromtheworkshopdiscussion.

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anopportunitytoproactivelycollaborateandplanforafuturethatsupportstechnologiesthatareclean,reliable,andaffordable.

Fourmajorthemesemergedduringtheconversation:

1.Recentprojectionsarelikelyunderestimatingactualloadgrowth.

Participantsagreedthattheprojectionthatthepaceofelectricityloadgrowthwilldoubleinfiveyearsislikelyanunderestimateasmoreutilitiesupdatetheirloadgrowthforecasts.

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Thisreinforcestheideathattheeraofflatdemandistruly

overforthenear-andmid-term.

2.Region-specificapproachesarenecessaryformanagingnear-termload

growth.RegionsacrosstheU.S.areexperiencingdifferentpacesofloadgrowthandhavevaryingoptionsforitsmanagement.Itisclearthatreliableand

affordableelectricitycannotbecompromisedascities,states,andregionsworktomeetclimategoals.However,fewexistingtechnologiescanprovidecleaner,reliable,andaffordableelectricity.Tomeetnear-termdemand,naturalgas

generationwithlowercarbonintensityisanoptionconsistentwithvariousfederalpoliciesincludingtheInflationReductionAct’s(IRA)methaneemissionsfee.

Grid-enhancingtechnologies,demand-sidemanagement,transmissionand

distributionsysteminvestments,andenergystoragecanalsohelp.Inparallel,continuedinvestmentinresearch,development,anddemonstrationprojectsiscrucialtocommercializinganddeployingadvancedcleanenergytechnologieslikeCCS,cleanhydrogen,smallmodularreactors,andlong-durationenergy

storage.

3.Stakeholderalignmentiscriticaltomeetthedualchallengesofload

growth:managereliabilityandplanfordeepdecarbonization.Whilethe

issueofcertaintywasdiscussedalongmanydimensions,whatisclearisthatthekeystakeholdersthatcollectivelymanagesignificantnewloadsmustbealignedforthenecessaryinvestmentsingeneration,transmissionanddistribution,andotherresourcesthathelpmanagethesystem.Forexample,howcan

policymakersandregulatorsunlocklargeamountsofprivatecapitalforprojects?Newlargeloadsneedtobedevelopedinclosecoordinationwithgridplanners

andoperators.

4.Stakeholdersareseekingflexibilitytomanageloadgrowthuncertainty.

Investors,gridmanagers,andendusersareallseekingcertainty:Willnew

demandmaterializetojustifyinvestmentsingenerationandtransmission

infrastructure,andwillitdosoontheanticipatedtimeline?Ifelectricitypricesrise(whichsomestakeholdersexpect),willthatreducefutureloadgrowthinturn?

Increasedtransparencyandcollaborationcanreduceuncertainty.Durable

policiesarealsocriticalforinvestorstofeelconfidentdeployinglargeamountsofcapitaltoprojects.

Giventhecross-cuttingnatureofmanyofthetopics,somethemesrecurthroughoutthis

workshopreportastheydidintheconversation.Suchcross-cuttingthemes

demonstratethattheseissues—alongwithmanyothers—mustbeconsideredholisticallybydecision-makers.

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1Recentprojectionsarelikelyunderestimatingactualloadgrowth.

“[F]iveyearsago,wehadrelativelyflatgrowthintheindustrialsector.…Certainly,data

centersweregrowing,butnotquitethepacethattheyaresuddenlynow,soIthinkthis

isjustachallengetochangetoanewera.”

“10yearsago,everybodythoughta25[megawatt,MW]loadwasbig.These[loads

today]arehuge—725MW.”

c

Untilrecently,demandintheelectricitysectorwasrelativelystable.Inrecentyears,

however,investmentinlargesourcesofnewload—manufacturingfacilitiesanddata

centers—hasreached$630billion.

6

Thisrapidgrowthisdriven,inpart,byrecent

legislation:theInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA),theInflationReductionAct(IRA),andtheCHIPSandScienceAct(Figure2).

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Whilerecentprojectionsfrom

utilities,RTOs,analysts,andothersarebeingrevisedupwardstoaccountfortheseinvestments,workshopparticipantsagreedthattheprojectionsarelaggingeconomicdevelopmentindicators.

Figure2.Regionalgrowthdrivers

Inrecentyears,gridplanners’loadforecastspointedtoeconomicgrowth,populationgrowth,temperaturepatterns,andelectrificationasdrivingelectricitydemand.However,insevenoftheeightloadforecastsabove,datacenters

(includingforcryptocurrencyandartificialintelligence)andindustrialfacilities(mainlybatteryandautomotive,butalsohydrogenplants)arethekeydriversofthissuddensurgeinloadgrowthexpectations.Adaptedfrom:JohnD.WilsonandZachZimmerman,GridStrategies:TheEraofFlatPowerDemandisOver,December2023,

/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/National-Load-Growth-Report-2023.pdf.

cAsmentioned,quotesfromworkshopparticipantsareunattributedastheworkshopwasheldunderChathamHouseRule.

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Affordableandreliableelectricityisnon-negotiableontheroadtonetzero.One

participantsummedupcommentsfromthegroupinsaying,“Ourfirstandforemostresponsibilityisreliability—tokeepthelightson.”Aselectricitydemandgrowsfromrapidelectrification,manufacturing,andproliferatingdatacentersthatrequiremoreenergy,electricitygenerationandtransmissioncapacitymustbeadequatetomeetdemand.Thatcapacitymustalsobeabletointegratecleanenergysources,or

decarbonizationgoalsinthissectorwillbeundermined.

Atpresent,datacentersaccountfor2.5%ofU.S.electricityconsumptionbutare

expectedtoreach7.5%to10%ofthenation’selectricitydemandby2030.

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Atthesametime,demandforcloudcomputingservicesissurging,andtheCOVID-19pandemichasacceleratedtheshifttowardcentralizeddatastorage.

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Together,theseestimatessuggestapotentialundercountofthreetofivegigawatts

(GW)innationalforecaststhrough2028,althoughparticipantsemphasizedthat

projectionislikelystilltoolow

.6

Concernsaboutundercountingarewarranted:asingledatacentercomingonlineintheSoutheastin2027,forexample,willrequire950MWofcapacity.

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Thedevelopersexpectittotaketwotofouryearstoreachfullcapacityandanticipatedemandwillpeaksomewherebetween70%and90%ofcapacity,whichenablesareservemargintoaccountforweathervariationandunexpecteddemand

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Asdatacentersofthismagnitudeproliferate,advanced,proactiveplanningbysystemoperatorsandutilitiestomeettheincreaseddemandiscritical.Figure3providesan

overviewoftheprojectedloadgrowthfromaregionaltransmissionorganization(RTO),PJMInterconnection,thatexemplifiesthechangeinprojectionsinaslittleasone

year.

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Intheshortterm,increasingelectricitydemandisdrivenbynewlargeloads,includingdatacentersandmanufacturingfacilities.Inthelongterm,electrificationandelectricvehiclesareexpectedtocontributelargersharesoftheoverallloaddemand.

“It’snotonlyaddinggenerationforloadgrowth;it’saddinggenerationtogetoutofthat

coal.”

Amidthisgrowthindemand,utilitycompaniesarecontinuingtheirdecade-longeffortstoreducetheuseofcoal,whichfurtherincreasestheneedfornewelectricity

generation.Participantsemphasizedaneedfor“new,firm,reliablepoweronashorttimelinetoservenewlargeloads.”However,oneindividualnotedthe“needtofindawayofdoingthatthatdoesn’tmakeusgobackwardonourclimatecommitments.”

Meetingunexpectednear-termloadgrowthmaynecessitateexpeditingtheconstructionofrapidlydeployableplantslikenaturalgascombustionturbinesortheincreaseduseofexistingthermalpowerplants(e.g.,extendingtheoperationallifeofcoal-firedplantsormaximizingtheusageofnaturalgasplants).Thesemeasurespresentpotentialconflictstopursuingdecarbonizationgoalswhileadheringtoenvironmentalregulationsand

meetingelectricitydemand.

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Figure3.PJM’sprojectedloadgrowth

PJM’sloadforecasthasbeenreviewedtwiceinrecentyearstoaccountforfutureexpectedloadgrowth,includingfromdatacenters.Inthelatestprojection,forinstance,the2028forecastincreasedfrom152.7GWto155.7GWinthepastyear,a2%increase.PJMisaregionaltransmissionorganization(RTO)thathasabout50participating

electricdistributionutilitiesoperatingin13statesfromNewJerseytoIllinoisandtheDistrictofColumbia.Source:PJM,EnergyTransitioninPJM:ResourceRetirements,Replacements,andRisks,February2023,

/-/media/library/reports-notices/special-reports/2023/energy-transition-in-pjm-resource-

retirements-replacements-and-risks.ashx.

2Region-specificapproachesarenecessaryformanagingnear-termloadgrowth.

“Attheendoftheday,we’reutilitycustomersandouroperationsaredependentonthe

gridswherewearelocated.…Ican’tbein[onestate]andswitchtosomeoneelse’s

gridtogetelectricity.”

“I’dlovetohavealargecleanenergyresourcethatIcouldbringonlineby2030.It

doesn’texistrightnow.”

Thelevelsofloadgrowththatwerediscussedwilldependonbuildingnewgenerationinmanyregionsofthecountry.Workshopparticipantspointedtotheimportanceof

consideringregionaldifferencesinelectricitydemand,resourceavailability,andpolicylandscapes.Regionalitywas,infact,themostdiscussedtopicoftheworkshopasitisinextricablylinkedwitheveryotherissueintheloadgrowthconundrum.

d

Loadgrowth,inparticular,hasremainedrelativelyconsistentinsomepartsofthe

countrywhilechangingquicklyinothers.Totheextentthatneighboringregionshaveexcessgeneration,enhancinginterregionaltransmissioncanplayaroleinaddressing

dInourthematiccodingoftheworkshopthemes,regionalitywasthemostfrequentcode,includingthewords“region,”“regionality,”andthenamesofindividualregionssuchas“MISO”(MidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator)and“theSouthwest.”

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thischallenge.Forexample,muchofthenation’santicipatedindustrialloadgrowthisoccurringinthreeregions:theSouthwest,particularlyArizonaandNevada;the

Midwest,concentratedinMichiganandIndiana;andtheSoutheastinGeorgiaandthe

Carolinas.OneparticipantsaidthatArizonaaloneisexpectingatleast40%loadgrowthoverthenextfiveyears.

e,1,

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Amongthetechnologiesforaddressingloadgrowthtoday,itisparticularlydifficulttofindonesthatarereadilyavailable,reliable,andclean,withlargecapacity.Participantsobservedthatnaturalgaspartiallyfillssuchagapbecauseofitsreliabilityand

affordabilitybutdoesnotprovidetheemissionsreductionbenefitsofemergingcleanenergytechnologies.

f

Naturalgasusagehasmarkedlyincreasedascoalusagehas

decreased(Figure4),inpartbecauseithasbecomecost-competitiveduetopolicyandtechnologicaladvancements.

13

Addressingupstreamandpoint-sourcemethane

emissionswillhelpdecreasethegreenhousegasemissionsfromnaturalgasandincreaseitsacceptability.

Manyutilityrepresentativesexpressedconcernsthatrecentpolicyproposalsmay

constraintheirabilitytomeetincreasingloaddemands.Forinstance,EPA’sproposedgreenhousegasrulescoulddecreaseutilities’flexibilityintechnologyselection;and

manyutilitiesindicatedtheywouldneedtolimittheirnaturalgasplants’capacityfactorstomeettherequirements.

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Thechallengewillbehowtodesignpoliciesand

regulationsthatdrivetowardacleanergridwhilestillensuringaffordability,reliability,andresilienceevenaselectricityloadgrowthfarexceedsrecentexpectations.

Althoughtheaveragecapacityfactorofnaturalgascombined-cyclepowerplantsintheUnitedStatesis64%,

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materiallyincreasingthisnumbertomeetadditionalloadisnotseenasfeasibleforsomeutilities:“Justnotenough,”oneparticipantsaid,“it’snot

efficientfortheplantstorunmuchhigherthanthey’realreadyrunning.”

Inadditiontorunningcurrentplantsathighercapacitieswherepossible,utilities

confirmedtheywereplanningtobringmorenaturalgasonlinetomeetthegrowingloadandthatadditionalnaturalgascapacitywillbehydrogen-andcarbon-capture-and-

storage-ready,withatendencytofavorcarbonsequestrationoverhydrogen.Asone

participantnoted,“We’renotcommittingtooneortheotherbyanyspecificpointintime,butifwehadtobetonone,we’rebettingoncarbon[sequestration]inthetimeframe

we’relookingat.”

Whenparticipantsconsideredadditionalstrategiesformanagingloadgrowth,thethemesthatemergedrangedfromregulatoryandinfrastructurechallengesto

opportunitiesfortechnologicalinnovationtounlocknewoptions.Technologieswith

longerdeploymentleadtimesthatwerediscussedincludedcarboncaptureandstorage

eThoughdatacentersaccountforthelargestshareofexpectedloadgrowthoverall,thatgrowthismoreevenly

dispersedaroundthecountry.DatacentergrowthishighestinthePJMregion,whichcoversmuchofthemid-

Atlantic,includingVirginia,wheredatacentersandcloudmarketsareexpectedtoconcentrate.PJMrecentlyupdateditsloadforecastandtripleditsestimatedgrowthexpectationsoverthenextdecadefromthepreviousyear(see

endnotes4and29)toaccommodatetheexpectedincreaseindatacenters,particularlythosethatsupportgenerativeAI,whichisespeciallyenergy-intensive.IncreasedelectrificationoftransportationandindustrywasanotherreasonforthePJMupdate.

fNaturalgaswasthefifthmostfrequenttopicofdiscussion,with42mentions,accountingfor11%ofallcodedsegments.

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(CCS),smallmodularreactors(SMR)andadvancednuclearreactors,nuclearfusion,hydrogen,andlong-durationenergystorage.

Figure4.U.S.annualelectricitygenerationbysource

Comparingtrendsfrom1990-2022,78.4%ofU.S.powergenerationin2022wasfromnaturalgasandzero-carbonsources,asubstantialincreaseoverthelastthreedecades.Zero-carbonsourcesaccountedfor39.6%ofU.S.powergenerationin2022.“Othergases”referstoblastfurnacegasandothermanufacturedandwastegasesderivedfromfossilfuels.Through2010,thisincludespropanegas.“Biomass”includeswoodandwood-derivedfuels,alongwithmunicipalsolidwastefrombiogenicsources,landfillgas,sludgewaste,agriculturalbyproducts,andotherbiomass.Through2000,thisincludesnon-renewablewaste,aswell.“Solar”includesgenerationfromsolarthermaland

photovoltaicenergyatutility-scalefacilities.Itdoesnotincludesmall-scalephotovoltaicgeneration.Datafrom:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),MonthlyEnergyReview,TableA2:ApproximateHeatContentofPetroleumProduction,Imports,andExports,January2024,

/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec12_3.pdf.

Regulatory

Federalandsub-nationalpolicymakingimpactsutilities’abilitytomeetloadgrowth

demands,sometimesinunanticipatedways.Eachregionisalsosubjecttoitsown

regulatorystructuresthatcomplicateutilities’abilitytomeetloadgrowthwithclean

electricity.Forexample,NewYorkstate’sozonepeakerrulerequires1,500MWofcombustionturbines,orpeakers,toshutdownby2025.

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However,becauseof

predictedsummershortfalls,oneparticipantnotedthat600MWofpeakercapacityisbeingretainedfor“aperiodoftwoyears,possiblyextendeduptofouryears.”

Infrastructure

Increasedtransmissioncapacitywillbeanimportantcomplementtobuildingnew

generationanddeployingotherstrategiesformodernizingthegrid(e.g.,grid-enhancing

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technologies,innovativemarketdesigns).Whereandhownewinfrastructureisbuiltremainsanopenquestion(Figure5).

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Figure5.Estimateddatacentergrowthbygridregion

Thisfigureillustratestheestimatedgrowthindatacentercapacityacrossvariousregions,highlightingtheneedforcorrespondinginfrastructuredevelopmenttomeetgrowingloaddemand.Source:S&PGlobal,POWEROFAI:WildpredictionsofpowerdemandfromAIputindustryonedge,October2023,

/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/101623-power-of-ai-wild-

predictions-of-power-demand-from-ai-put-industry-on-edge.

Atpresent,somestakeholdersnotedthattheUnitedStateslackssufficientlarge,

interregion