化石燃料依赖社区经济韧性研究议程（英）-2024-22正式版-WN8

ACCEPTEDMANUSCRIPT•OPENACCESSAresearchagendaforeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel–dependentcommunitiesTocitethisarticlebeforepublication:LeonClarkeetal2024Environ.Res.:Energyinpress/10.1088/2753-3751/ad6d70Manuscriptversion:AcceptedManuscriptAcceptedManuscriptis“theversionofthearticleacceptedforpublicationincludingallchangesmadeasaresultofthepeerreviewprocess,andwhichmayalsoincludetheadditiontothearticlebyIOPPublishingofaheader,anarticleID,acoversheetand/oran‘AcceptedManuscript’watermark,butexcludinganyotherediting,typesettingorotherchangesmadebyIOPPublishingand/oritslicensors”ThisAcceptedManuscriptis©2024TheAuthor(s).PublishedbyIOPPublishingLtd.AstheVersionofRecordofthisarticleisgoingtobe/hasbeenpublishedonagoldopenaccessbasisunderaCCBY4.0licence,thisAcceptedManuscriptisavailableforreuseunderaCCBY4.0licenceimmediately.Everyoneispermittedtouseallorpartoftheoriginalcontentinthisarticle,providedthattheyadheretoallthetermsofthelicence/licences/by/4.0Althoughreasonableendeavourshavebeentakentoobtainallnecessarypermissionsfromthirdpartiestoincludetheircopyrightedcontentwithinthisarticle,theirfullcitationandcopyrightlinemaynotbepresentinthisAcceptedManuscriptversion.Beforeusinganycontentfromthisarticle,pleaserefertotheVersionofRecordonIOPscienceoncepublishedforfullcitationandcopyrightdetails,aspermissionsmayberequired.AllthirdpartycontentisfullycopyrightprotectedandisnotpublishedonagoldopenaccessbasisunderaCCBYlicence,unlessthatisspecificallystatedinthefigurecaptionintheVersionofRecord.Viewthearticleonline

forupdatesandenhancements.ThiscontentwasdownloadedfromIPaddress1on19/08/2024at03:33Page1of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R112345AResearchAgendaforEconomicResilienceinFossilFuel–DependentCommuniꢀes678Authors9LeonClarkeistheDirectorofDecarbonizaꢀonPathwaysattheBezosEarthFund.MarkCurꢀsisanassociateprofessoratWakeForestUniversity.101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960AnnEisenbergisaprofessoroflawandResearchDirectoroftheCenterforEnergyandSustainableDevelopmentattheWestVirginiaUniversitySchoolofLaw.EmilyGrubertisanassociateprofessorofsustainableenergypolicyintheKeoughSchoolofGlobalAffairsattheUniversityofNotreDame.JuliaHaggertyisanassociateprofessorofgeographyatMontanaStateUniversityandauniversityfellowatResourcesfortheFuture.AlexJamesisanassociateprofessorattheUniversityoyoming.NathanM.JensenisaprofessorintheDepartmentofGovernmentattheUniversityofTexas-Ausꢀn.NoahKaufman*(nk2792@)isaseniorresearchscholarattheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversitySIPA.EleanorKrauseisaPh.D.candidaeHarvardUniversityKennedySchool.DanielRaimi*(Raimi@rff.org

afellowanddirectoroftheEquityintheEnergyTransiꢀonIniꢀaꢀveatResourcesforthFuture.DusꢀnTingleyisaprofessorofgovernmentatHarvardUniversity.JeremyWeberisaprattheUniversityofPiꢁsburgh.*CorrespondinauthorsAcknowledgements:WethankZacharyD.Whitlockforhisexcellentresearchsupport.Fundinginformaꢀon:WethankTheBezosEarthFundforitssupportfortheworkonthismanuscript1AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page2of2112345Introducꢀon6789InDecember2023,worldleadersconvenedinDubaiandpledgedtotransiꢀontheensystemawayfromfossilfuelsinresponsetothethreatsofclimatechange(1).Tounderstndhowtheunprecedentedeconomictransformaꢀonsrequiredtoachievethisgoalmayaltertheworld’senergymarketsandphysicalenergyinfrastructure,decisionmakerscanlooktothousandsofpublicaꢀonsfromhundredsofenergysystemmodelsthatdepictthetrade-offsoncriꢀcalissues,suchasthespeedanddepthofemissionsreducꢀons,theircosts,andtheeffectsonglobalenergyaccess.101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960InDubai,worldleadersalsocommiꢁedtoa“just,orderly,andequitable”transiꢀon,achargethatincludesallofsociety,withspecialaꢁenꢀontothosewhoaremostvulnerabletoclimatechangeandtheeconomicchangesrequiredfordecarbonizaꢀon.However,comparedtotheliteratureonthephysicalenergysystem,onlyascantbodyofevidenceexistsonhowtoincreaseeconomicresilience1infossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀesastheworldtransiꢀonsawayfromfossilfuels.Mostresearchonthistopichasfocusedoncharacterizingthescopeofthechallenge(3–5)andprovidingbroadprinciplesforaddresingit(6–8),ratherthanproposingandevaluaꢀngspecificpolicyintervenꢀons.Thisarꢀclediscussesthecriꢀcalneedforaddiꢀonalscholarshiptohelppolicymakersdesign,implement,andevaluatestrategiesforsupporꢀngtheconomiesoffossilfuel–dependentregions.OurfocusisontheUnitedStates,althoughthechallengeappliestoregionsandnaꢀonsaroundtheworld(9).Amongotherprioriꢀes,werecommendresearchonalternaꢀveemploymentopꢀonsforthefossilfuelworkforce,policiestosrevenues,andlessonsfromprevitgovernmentsthatdependheavilyonfossilfuelnomictransiꢀons.Wealsohighlighttheneedformeꢀculoustrackingofongoingeffortstobuildeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel-dependentcommuniꢀestoinformthesignofmoreeffecꢀvestrategiesoverꢀme.TheNeedtoSupportUSFossilFuel–DependentCommuniꢀesTheUnitedStatesisproducerofcoal(10).rld’slargestproducerofoilandnaturalgasandthefourthlargestre1illustrateshowfossilfuelindustriesaccountforlargesharesofemploymentiertainregions(thefigureillustratesdirectjobsonly,excludingindirectorinducedemploment).2Stateandlocalgovernmentsintheseregionsalsodependheavilyonfossilfuelindustriesforrevenuetofundschools,roads,andotheressenꢀalservices(11,12).1By“economicresilience,”werefertotheabilityoflocalandregionaleconomiestorecoverfromnegaꢀveeconomicshocks(2)—inthiscase,fromdecliningdemandforandproducꢀonoffossilfuels.2Empoymenanalysesoꢂenincludetheeffectsofinvestmentindirect,indirect,andinducedjobs.Inthiscontext,“direct”referstoemploymentintherelevantindustries(e.g.,oilandgasextracꢀon),“indirect”referstoemploymentinassociatedsupplychains(e.g.,manufacturingvehiclesusedinoilandgasextracꢀon),and2Page3of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R112345Figure1.DirectFossilFuelEmploymentSharebyCounty6789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960Notes:MapbyauthorsbasedondatafromUSensus(20PercentagesrepresenttheshareoftotalemploymentineachcountythatcomesfromNothAmericaIndustrialClassificaꢀonCodessectors211,213111,213112,213113,2121,221112,221210,23712,324,33313,4247,and486(seeTableA-1intheAppendixforcodedefiniꢀons).Sinceitspeakin2008,UScoalproducꢀonhasdeclinedbyroughlyhalfduetotheincreasedavailabilityoflow-costnaturalgas,environmentalconcerns,andotherfactors(13,14).Thisdeclinehascreateddeepeconomihardshipinsomecoal-dependentregions,mirroringtheexperiencesofothercommuniꢀefromfossilfuelsinthecomingdehavelostdominantindustries(15,16).Atransiꢀonawayillcreateanoverlappingmixofeconomic,environmental,andsocialchngesformanymoreUScommuniꢀes,raisingtheneedfornewstrategiesthatcanbuildecoomicresilience,ensureconꢀnuedhigh-qualityemploymentopportuniꢀes,andmaintainpublicservices.Addingtothesechallenges,aslongasfossilresourcesaresꢀllinuse,safetyandreliabilityconcernsrequireworkersandhostcommuniꢀestoconꢀnuesupporꢀfinite(17).ssilinfrastructure,evenwiththeawarenessthatsuchacꢀviꢀesareAlthoughourfusinthisarꢀcleisonplaceswherefossilfuelsplayadirectroleinsupporꢀnglocaleconomie,achievingclimategoalsmayalsocauseacutedisrupꢀonstolocaleconomiesdependentonotherindustries.Thisincludesmanufacturingofinternalcombusꢀonenginevehicles(18),primarysteelproducꢀon(19),andotheremissions-intensiveindustries.Supporꢀngfossilfuel-dependentcommuniꢀesmaꢁersfortheworld’sclimateambiꢀonsaswell.AglobalresponsetoclimatechangerequiresstrongUSleadershipgiventheUS’roleastheinduced”referstoemploymentresulꢀngfromindustryspendingatunrelatedestablishments(e.g.,oilandgasxtracꢀonworkerspurchasingclothesorfood).3AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page4of21123456789world’slargesteconomyandlargestcumulaꢀveemiꢁerofgreenhousegasemissions,butprovidingitwillbedifficult,ifnotimpossible,iflargepartsofthenaꢀonandtheirelectedrepresentaꢀvesopposeclimateacꢀoninpartduetotheeconomicrisksofatransiꢀofromfossilfuels.Thus,increasingeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel–dependentregionadvancetwomajorobjecꢀves:(1)increasingthelikelihoodthattheUnitedStates(andthworld)willsuccessfullyrespondtoclimatethreatsand(2)ensuringthatthebenefitsandburdensofanenergytransiꢀonarebroadlyshared.y101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960GrowingPolicySupportInsomefossilfuel–dependentregions—parꢀcularlythosewherecoalminesandpowerplantshaveclosedorfaceuncertainfutures—localgovernmentofficials,economicdevelopmentpracꢀꢀoners,andothershaveworkedforyears—ifnotdecades—tobuildlocaleconomicresilience.However,theirfinancialandtechnicalcapaciꢀesareoꢂenimited.Unꢀlrecently,theUSfederalgovernmenthadtakenfewstepstohelpthesecommuniꢀesplanforthefuture(oneexcepꢀonwastheObamaadministraꢀon’sPOWERiniꢀaꢀve,whichreceivedparꢀalfindingfromCongressof$100–200millionperyeartosupportstrugglingcoalcommuniꢀes(20)).Inrecentyears,federalsupportforfossilfuelcommunadministraꢀonhasputplace-basedpolicyathecenteanInteragencyWorkingGroup(IWG)tosupporteconomicdevelopmentobjecꢀvesincoal-dependentregions.hasincreasedmarkedly.TheBidenitseconomicagendaandestablishedNewlaws,parꢀcularlytheAmericanRescuePlan(2021),InfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA,2021),andInflaꢀonReducꢀonAct(2022),haveauthorizedmajorplace-basedinvestments.Table1illustratesthewiderangeofprogramsandpoliciesthatexclusivelyorparꢀallytargetfossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀastheAppalachianRegionalComcludingfundingboostsforlong-standingprograms,such,andnewfinancialincenꢀvesforcleanenergydevelopment.Manyotherproramsthatdonotspecificallytargetfossilfuel-dependentcommuniꢀesofferfundingfwhichthesecommuniꢀesarealsoeligible.4Page5of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R11234567Table1.FederalFundingTiedtoPlace-BasedPolicyinFossilfuel–dependentCommu89ProgramFocusonfossilFunding101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960communitiesExclusiveIWGonEnergyCommunities1HealthandHumanServicesFocusonEnergyCommunities2DOECleanEnergyDemonstrationProgramonCurrentandFormerMineLand3AssistancetoCoalCommunities4DOEAdvancedEnergyManufacturingandRecyclingGrantProgram3AppalachianRegionalCommission3Brownfields3Carboncapturedemonstrationandpilots3Hydrogenhubs3AdvancedManufacturingTaxCredit5Orphanedoilandgaswells3DOEEnergyInfrastructureReinvestmentLoanProgram5AbandonedMineLands3$5million/yearExclusive~$25million/yearExclusiveExclusiveExclusive$500million~$550million$750millionPartialPartialPartialPartialPartialExclusive$1billion$1.5billionOver$3billion~$4billion$4billionforcoalcommunities$4.7billion$5billioncreditsubsidy(upto$250billionloanauthority)~$11billionExclusivePartialExclusiveEnergyCommunityTaxCreditBonus5LikelytensofbillionsNotes:Authors’analysisofvariousprramsasofJanuary2024.1:EstablishedinExecuꢀveOrder14008.2:AuthorizedundertheConsolidateprogramsandstateandNGO-ledeffopriaꢀonsActof2023.SeeAppendixfordetailsontheseAuthorizedundertheIIJA.AppalachianRegionalCommissionhasongoingfunding,with$200llioninappropriaꢀonsinFY2023.4:$552millionwasfundedundervariousAmericanRescuePlanogramsandtheBuildBackBeꢁerRegionalChallenge,withongoingfundingof$50million/year.5:AuthorzedundertheInflaꢀonReducꢀonAct.SeeAppendixfordetails.States,Naꢀvenaꢀons,andNGOsarealsoseekingtobuildeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel-dependentregions.supportcoalcommunmple,Colorado,Illinois,andNewMexicoareimplemenꢀngplansto(21–23),andCaliforniaisbeginningastatewideefforttobuildeconomicresilce,includinginitsmajoroil-producingregion(24).Fossilfuel–dependentNaꢀvenaꢀonssuchastheSouthernUteIndianTribe,arediversifyingtheireconomicdevelopmentstrategiestosupportlong-termeconomicandfiscalhealth(25).NGOs,suchastheJustTransiꢀonFundandNaꢀonalAssociaꢀonofCounꢀes,areworkingtohelpcoalcommuniꢀesdiversifytheireconomies,respondtoeconomicdisrupꢀons,andbuildnetworksbetweencommunityleaders(26,27).LimitaꢀonsofExisꢀngPolicies5AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page6of21123456789Althoughunprecedentedinmagnitudeandscope,theseeffortstosupportfossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀesarelikelyinsufficientforavarietyofreasons.First,theyprimarilyfocusoncoalcommuniꢀes,whichareconcentratedinthreeregions:Appalachia,theInterWest(parꢀcularlyWyoming),andtheIllinoisbasin(Figure1).However,theoilandgaalargeremployerandpublicrevenuegenerator,anditismoregeographicallydispersedrosstheUS(11,28).Somemajorprograms,suchasthefederalbonustaxcreditforinvestmentin“energycommuniꢀes,”alsopoorlytargetthelocaꢀonswiththegreatesteconomicdependenceonfossilfuels(3).ainris101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960Second,mostpoliciesfocusnotonbuildinglong-termeconomicresiliencebutnsteadfocusnarrowlyonboosꢀngcleanenergydeploymentoraddressingsitecontaminaꢀon.Inplaceswherealternaꢀveprivatesectorinvestmentandemploymentopportuniꢀesmaybelimited,exisꢀngpoliciesgenerallydonotofferotherformsofreliefforworkersorcommuniꢀes,suchasextendedunemploymentinsurance,supportforlocalgovernmentfinances,orotherbroadneeds.Third,theseefforts—parꢀcularlyatthefederallevel—offerliꢁleassurancethatpolicieswillbesustained.Althoughpoliꢀcalprioriꢀesnaturallychangeoverꢀme,thedeepdividebetweenthetwomajorUSpoliꢀcalparꢀesonenergyandclimatepythreatensthedurabilityofpublicpolicies,includingthosedesignedtobuildecnomicreence.Alackofsustainedcommitmenttotheseregionswillexacerbatemanylocalstakeholders’distrustofthefederalgovernment,deterringtheirparꢀcipaꢀoninongoingandfutureefforts(29).Morebroadly,policydesignwillbecriꢀcaltoprovideintervenꢀonsthataresupprtedlocally,whichinturncanmakethosepoliciesmoreenduringacrosspoliꢀcalcycles(29–31).Fourth,policyeffortsaresmall,relaꢀvetonotonlytheneedsofworkersandcommuniꢀesbutalsothescaleofinvestmentflowifederalincenꢀvestospeeddeplotransformthephysicalenergysystem.Forexample,ofcleanenergyintheInflaꢀonReducꢀonActmaycost$1.2trillionoverthenext10yars(32),whereasfederalprogramsfocusedonfossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀesaremallerbyroughlytwoordersofmagnitude(seeTable1).Similarly,nofederalprogramsupportsstateandlocalgovernmentbudgetsthatreceivetensofbillionsofdollarsannuallyfromfossilfuelextracꢀonandinfrastructure(11).Finally,withonlyalvidencebaseonwhatstrategiesofferthemostpromisingapproaches,thedesigplace-basedpoliciestosupportfossilfuelcommuniꢀeshasbeendrivenprimariytheoriesofchangeandpoliꢀcalexpediencies.Suchalackofanalysisandevidencecreatsanenormousopportunityforscholars.TheOpportunityforAddiꢀonalScholarshipAmodestbutgrowingbodyofresearchexaminesstrategiesforbuildingeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀes.Insightsincludetheimportanceofproacꢀveplanningforfuturetransiꢀons(33,34)andtheneedtoempowerlocalcommuniꢀestoensurethatpoliciesatestteorfederallevelsupport,ratherthandictate,localprioriꢀesandpreferences(17).6Page7of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R112345Scholarshavealsobeguntoestablishcrucialbaselinedata,suchastheemploymentandeconomicoutcomesofdisplacedfossilfuelworkers(35–37).6789Sꢀll,muchmoreresearchisneededtoidenꢀfyandevaluatetangiblestrategiesthatcmeetthechallengesfacingtheeconomiesoffossilfuel–dependentregions.Notably,thedisciplineofeconomicshas,withsomeimportantexcepꢀons(e.g.,38),focusedontheeto101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960limitaꢀonsofplace-basedpoliciesratherthandesigningbeꢁerstrategiestosupporttheselocaleconomies.Thankfully,economistsandotherscholarsarenowfocusingmoreaꢁenꢀonontheseissuesdueinparttotheuniquechallengesposedbytheenergytransiꢀonandabeꢁerunderstandingofthelimitsofcapitalandlabormobility(4,5,39).Theremainderofthissecꢀondescribeshownewscholarshipcanhelppolicymakersbeꢁeridenꢀfyandmiꢀgateriskstolocaleconomies.Aswithanyemergingresearchprogram,newareaswillalsoarise,leadingtoadynamicaccumulaꢀonofknowledgeandbestpracꢀces.First,researchisneededtobeꢁerunderstandthenatureandscaleoftheforthcomingchallengesfacingfossilfuel–dependenteconomies.Fiscalrisksareonekeyexample.Thelossofdominantindustriescancreatedownwardspiralsoferodinglocaltaxbasesandincreaseddifficultyraisingpublicfunds(15,40),degradingthepuservicesthatarevitaltofutureeconomicdevelopmentandcommunitywelbeing.Insil-fuel-richstatesthatlackincometaxes(e.g.,TexasandWyoming)orbroad-basedtaxesaltogether(e.g.,Alaska),balancingstatebudgetswithoutnewpublicfinancestructuresmayrquirescalingbackessenꢀalservices.Moreworkisalsoneededtobeꢁercharacterizethechallengesfacedbyfossilfuelworkers,includingassessingthetransferabilityoftheirexperꢀseandskillstoneweconomicsectors(41,42).Researcherscanalsocharacterizethecostsandbenefitsofdecommissioningfossilfuelinfrastructure,thescaleandcharmuchmore.ofsocialsafetynetsupportsthatmaybeneeded,andAbeꢁerunderstandingofthseissueswillenableresearcherstoevaluatestrategiestobuildeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel–dependentregions.TheraꢂofnewprogramsintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworldofferopportuniꢀesforscholarstodrawinsightsfrompolicysuccessesandfailureWithouttheabilitytoconductrandomizedcontrolledtrials—typicallythegoldstandardfoishingcausaꢀonbetweenpoliciesandoutcomes—scholarscanusecasestudyandquasi-erimentalapproachestoassesstheeffecꢀvenessofpoliciestosupporttheseeconomandtheirpotenꢀaltoscaleup.Exisꢀngprograms,whichlargelyfocusondeployingcleaenergytechnologiesandtheirsupplychains,shouldenableresearcherstoassessthedegreetowhichtheseindustriescanofferhigh-qualityemploymentopportuniꢀestotransiꢀoningwokersandcommuniꢀesandalsothelimitaꢀonsofsuchstrategies.Researchonhowtheseprogramsinfluencepublicpercepꢀonsofthegovernmentandtheenergytransiꢀonmaybevaluableindesigningmoredurablepolicystrategies.Researchcanalsodrawlessonsfromdifferentꢀmesandplaces.Thechallengeoftransformingewrld’senergysystemisunprecedented,sohistoryprovidesnoperfectanaloguefor7AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page8of21123456789guidance.Yet,arobustliteratureexistsontheeconomicandgovernancerisksfacedbynatural-resource-dependenteconomies(43),alongwithagrowingbodyofworkthatassessestheconsequencesofmajoreconomicshocksandpoliciesdesignedtomiꢀgatethem(16,Governmentshavelongexperimentedwithplace-basedeconomicpolicies,including.alefforts,suchastheTennesseeValleyAuthority,AppalachianRegionalCommission,andGfOpportunityZones(46–48).Otherpolicies,suchasEmpowermentZonesandtheNewMarketsTaxCredit,havetargetedselectcommuniꢀesspreadacrossthecountry(49,50).OutsideoftheUnitedStates,governmentsinEurope,theMiddleEast,andelsewherearepursuingeffortstosupportfossilfuel–dependentregionsandboosteconomicresilience(51,52).Insightsfromeachoftheseexperiencesmaybeapplicabletothecontemporarymoment,whetheascreaꢀvesoluꢀonsorcauꢀonarytales.101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960Eventhebest-designedstrategieswillfailwithoutsufficientdesireandcapacityforsuccessfulimplementaꢀon,especiallyatthelocallevels,whereadministraꢀvelimitaꢀonsmaybemostacute(53,54).Scholarshipshouldthereforefocusonnotonlytheresourcesorincenꢀveprovidedtoeconomicactorsbutalsothemosteffecꢀvestructuresforimplemenꢀngdurableandinclusivestrategies.Becausefossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀesacrosstheitedStates(andmanymorearoundtheworld)differbygeographic,socioeconomic,poliꢀcandotherfactors,aone-size-fits-allpolicyapproachisunlikelytosucceed,andpolicyassessmentsmaynotgeneralizefromoneplacetoanother.Instead,successfulstrategiesandassessmentswillneedtounderstandtherelevantpolicycontexts,thenassessstrategiestatcancatertothefinancialandtechnicalresources,alongwiththelocalstrengthsandprioriꢀesofaffectedcommuniꢀes;researchersshouldseektounderstandtheselocalprioriꢀesratherthanimposing“top-down”visions(29,55).Achievingthesegoalswillrequirestrongꢀesbetweentheacademicandpracꢀꢀonercommuniꢀes,includingpolicyenentfromscholarsandtransparencyfrompolicymakers.Today’sScholarshipCanInforFuturePolicyDesignEvenarapidtransiꢀontoanet-zeroemissionsenergysystemwilllikelytakedecades.Speedmustremainaprioritygiventhedangersposedtosocietybytheconꢀnuedemissionsofgreenhousegasesantherpollutants.Yet,thesedecadeswillprovideꢀmetodevelopstrategies,learnfrokesandsuccesses,andadaptpolicytosupportfossilfuel–dependentcommuniꢀThisprocessoflearningandadapꢀngwillrequireconꢀnuedaꢁenꢀonfromthescholy,philanthropic,government,andNGOcommuniꢀesfordecadestocome.MajorneweffotsfromeachofthesegroupsareneededtoensurethattheenergytransiꢀondoesnotleavebehindthepeopleandplacesthathavepoweredtheUSandglobaleconomyformorethanacenury.8Page9of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R11234References56781.UnitedNaꢀonsFrameworkConvenꢀononClimateChange.OutcomeoftheFirstGlobalS[Internet].Dubai,UAE;2023Dec[cited2023Dec13].Availablefrom:takehꢁps:///sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf?download92.MarꢀnR.Regionaleconomicresilience,hysteresisandrecessionaryshocks.JournalofEconomicGeography.2012Jan1;12(1):1–32.1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859603.GrahamK,KniꢁelCR.Assessingthedistribuꢀonofemploymentvulnerabilitytotheenergytransiꢀonusingemploymentcarbonfootprints.ProceedingsoftheNaꢀonalAcademyofSciences.2024Feb13;121(7):e2314773121.4.HansonGH.LocalLaborMarketImpactsoftheEnergyTransiꢀon:ProspectsandPolicies[Internet].NaꢀonalBureauofEconomicResearch;2023[cited2023Jun6].(WorkingPaperSeries).Availablefrom:hꢁps:///papers/w308715.LawrenceRZ.Climateacꢀon:Implicaꢀonsforfactormarketreallocaꢀon[Internet].PetersonInsꢀtuteforInternaꢀonalEconomics;2024Jan[cited2024Feb12].ReportNo.:24–1.Availablefrom:hꢁps:///publicaꢀons/working-papers/2024/climate-acꢀon-implicaꢀons-factor-market-reallocaꢀon6.ChaM,PastorM,WanderM,SaddJ,Morello-FoschR.ARoadmaptoanEquitableLow-CarbonFuture:FourPillarsforaJustTransiꢀon[Internet].ClimateEquityNetwork;2019Apr.Availablefrom:hꢁps:///assets/sites/242/docs/Just_Transiꢀon_Final_Report_2019.pdf7.HoltSegallC.JustTransiꢀonsforOilandGasCommuniꢀes.VirginiaEnvironmentalLawReview.2021Apr13;39:177–232.8.BlueGreenAlliance.NaꢀonalEneTransiꢀonPolicyFramework[Internet].2021.Availablefrom:hꢁps://www.bluegreenallianceframework0/urces/bluegreen-alliance-naꢀonal-energy-transiꢀon-policy-9.FosterV,TroꢁerPA,WernS,NiedermayerM,MulugeꢁaY,AchakulwisutP,etal.Developmenttransiꢀonsforfossilfuel-producinglowandlower–middleincomecountriesinacarbon-constrainedworld.NatEnergy.2024Feb8;1–9.10.EnergyInsꢀtute.hꢁps://www.eneraꢀsꢀcalReviewofWorldEnergy[Internet].2023.Availablefrom:rg/staꢀsꢀcal-review11.RaimiD,GrertE,HigdonJ,SinghD,MetcalfG,PesekS.Thefiscalimplicaꢀonsofenergytransiꢀon.ReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy[Internet].2023;17(2).Availablefrom:hꢁps:///10.1086/72525012.RaimiD,DavertE,NeuenfeldtH,VanZanenA,WhitlockZ.TheEnergyTransiꢀonandLocalGovernmentFinance:NewDataandInsightsfrom10USStates[Internet].Washington,D.C.:ResourcsfortheFuture;2024Jan[cited2024Feb9].(RFFWorkingPaper).ReportNo.:24–01.Availablefrom:hꢁps://www.rff.org/publicaꢀons/working-papers/energy-transiꢀon-loca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