长株潭城市群产业结构变化的研究Research on Industrial Structure Change in ChangshaZhuzhou and Xiangtan

ResearchonIndustrialStructureChangeinChangsha，ZhuzhouandXiangtanAbstractIndustrialstructureisthecoreandfundamentalfactorofeconomicdevelopment,whichincludesthecompositionofthethreeindustriesandtherelationshipbetweeneachotherandcanreflectthequalityofeconomicgrowth.ThisarticlecollectsthedataofthreeindustriesaccountedfortheproportionofGDPinChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanduringtheperiodfrom2000to2014,andmaketrendcharttoreflectthechangeofindustrialstructureinthethreeregionsfrom2000to2014.Keywords:indusrtystructure,Changsha,Zhuzhou,XiangtanIntroductionChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanarelocatedintheMiddleEastofHunanProvince,whichhavenearly14.09Millionpeoplein2014insum,anditsareais28096Squarekilometreintotal.ThethreeregionsarethemajordistrictsintheimplementationofHunaneconomicdevelopmentstrategyandalsothekeyareasoftheriseofcentralChina.Theindustrialstructurecanreflectsaregion'scurrenteconomicdevelopmentwhichcanallowpolicymakerstodeterminewhetherthecurrentindustrialdevelopmentpoliciesneedtobeadjustedinordertomaketheindustrialstructuremorereasonableandeconomicdevelopsinasustainableway.StudyonthechangeofindustrialstructureinChangshaZhuzhouandXiangtancanhelpushavebettercognizanceofthethreeregion’seconomicdevelopmentandpromoteitsdevelopmentbyadjustingthecurrentindustrialdevelopmentpolicy.LiteratureReviewWiththeimprovementofeconomicstatusofChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtan,researchesrelatedtothethreeregionsisincreasing,andmostofthemusedataandanalysismethodstodiscusswhethertheindustrialstructureofthreeregionsarereasonable,andhowtodotooptimizetheindustrialstructure.UsingShift-ShareAnalysismodelwiththreeindustrydatafrom2000-2005,itcanbeclearfoundthattheindustrialstructureofChangsha-Zhuzhou-XiangtanUrbanAgglomerationisnotreasonable,butthecompetitivenessofregionalindustrialstructureisgraduallyincreasing（JiangJiang,2008）.Theempiricalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicgrowthfrom1985to2006inChangsha-Zhuzhou-XiangtanUrbanAgglomerationshowsthattherelationshipbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicgrowthisLong-termstablecooperativeinteraction（Zhang&Tan,2008）.Liao（2009）analyzestheevolutioncharacteristicsandevolutionmechanismofChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanindustrialstructure,andexplorestheconditions,difficultiesandCountermeasuresofoptimizingtheindustrialstructureofChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanindustrialstructure.Guo（2009）constructedthecompositiondatamodelandforecaststhatalongwiththeintegrationdevelopment,theChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanindustrialstructurewillbemuchreasonable,andproposedtheregionindustrialstructureadjustmentdirection.Byusingindustrialstructuresimilaritycoefficientandlocationquotientmethod,Ma&Shen（2011）thoughtthatsince2001,theChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanregionalindustrialstructureisgraduallyoptimizing,butleadingindustryconvergenceandindustrialstructuresimilarphenomenonstillexist,anditisnecessarytostrengthenregionalindustrialcooperationandbuildregionalindustrialchain.Zhu（2012）calculatedthecomprehensiveevaluationvalueofsevencitiesgroupcompetitivenessbyprincipalcomponentanalysis,theresultsshowthattheChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanisinthelast.Luo,LiuandWang（2014）usedthegreyrelationaldegreetheorytoconstructtherationalizationevaluationmodelofindustrialstructure,andevaluatedtherationalizationdegreeofindustrialstructureofChangsha-Zhuzhou-XiangtanUrbanAgglomeration,rationalizationdegreeofindustrialstructureofChangsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtanhasbeenrising,andsuperiortoNanchangandTaiyuanhasbeenrising,andstillhavespacetooptimize.MethodsTherearesomanycompaniesinawidevarietyofindustries,thatitisimpossibletostudythestructuralchangeofthethreeindustrybyusingfield

investigationorsamplingsurvey.So,thearticlechooseGDPofChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanandtheaddedvalueofprimaryindustry,secondindustryandtertiaryindustryin2000-2014asfourindexes,andfinallygoteachindustry’sproportioninGDPbycalculating.AllfourindexescanbefoundinHunanstatisticalyearbooksof2001-2015.Inordertomakeitschangecleartobeobserved,Iputthedataoftheindustriesintothethreeindustrysharetrendchartinthenextpart.Thecorecontentandmajordiscussionsofthearticlearearoundthistrendchart.Beforeusingthreeindustriesproportiontomaketrendchart,wefirstcollecteddataoffourindexesandpresentedtheminforms.Table1Regional

GDP

dataandindustriesdataofChangsha（hundredmillionyuan）Table2Regional

GDP

dataandindustriesdataofZhuzhou（hundredmillionyuan）Table3Regional

GDP

dataandindustriesdataofXiangtan（hundredmillionyuan）Thedataintable1,table2andtable3arefromstatisticalyearbookofHunanProvincein2001-2015,butexcept2010.DuetothelackofstatisticalyearbookofHunanProvincein2010,thedatain2009istheaverageofdatain2008and2010.ResultsBasedontheoriginaldataofindustryandGrossRegionalProductinChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtan,wecalculatedeveryindustry’sproportionandmakethetrendchart.Figure1TheproportionofthreeindustriesinChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanInFigure1,CPisshortforPrimaryindustryinChangsha,CSisshortforSecondaryindustryinChangsha,CTisshortforTertiaryindustryinChangsha,ZPisshortforPrimaryindustryinZhuzhou,ZSisshortforSecondaryindustryinZhuzhou,ZTisshortforTertiaryindustryinZhuzhou,XPisshortforPrimaryindustryinXiangtan,XSisshortforSecondaryindustryinXiangtan,andXTisshortforTertiaryindustryinXiangtan.Fromthetrendchart,wecanclearfoundthechangeofthreeindustries’proportioninChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanfrom2000to2014.First,theprimaryindustry’sproportionofChangsha,Zhuzhouwasinadownwardtrendingeneralandafter2011,theproportionofChangshawasbasicallyunchanged.However,theproportionofZhuzhouwasfallingfirstandthenrisebutfinallyfallingagain.Especially,theproportionofprimaryindustryinZhuzhouandXiangtanwasnearlycoincidedafter2011,andbothhadslightdecrease.Second,thesecondaryindustry’sproportionofChangshawasincreasedbetween2000and2005except2004andsince2006,thisproportionkeepfallinguntil2011.Thesecondaryindustry’sproportionofZhuzhouwasincreasedfrom2000to2002,after2002,thisproportionbegantofalluntil2011andduring2000to2003,thesecondaryindustry’sproportionofXiangtanwasinaupwardtrend,butintheperiodfrom2003-2011,theproportionwasdecreased.Besides,theproportionofsecondaryindustryinChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanhaveonethingincommon,thatisallofthembegantorisesince2011.Third,from2000to2011,theproportionoftertiaryindustriesinChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanshowedaslowupwardtrend,butthisconditionreversedafter2011.DiscussionThefigure1providesaintuitivewayforustoobservethechangeinthreeindustriesproportion.Itiseasytoseethattheorderofthreeproportionsfrom‘Tertiaryindustry>Secondaryindustry>Primaryindustry’changeto‘Secondaryindustry>Tertiaryindustry>Primaryindustry’.Therearemanyresearchesrelatedtothisphenomenonandotherquestionsinthechangeinindustries’proportion,suchasconvergenceofindustrialstructure.Throughdataanalysis,Ma&Shen（2011）foundthischangeinindustrialstructurewhichjustbetalkedinthelastparagraph,andbelievethatwhenthesecondindustryoccupythedominantpositionagain,economicdevelopmentwillbemoredependentonenergy.Tocopewiththissituation,Changsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanshouldadjustindustrialstructureandthemodeofgrowth,anddevelopthehighvalue-addedtertiaryindustry.Onlyinthisway,canthethreeindustriescoordinatedevelopcoordinatively.AlthoughtheindustrialstructureofChangsha,Zhuzhou,Xiangtanarestillnotreasonable,theirindustrialstructureisoptimizing.Aswecanseeinfigure1,thecurveofthesecondindustryandthecurveofthetertiaryindustryweretendstoclose

to

each

otherfrom2011to2014,andthistrendislikelytocontinue.ConclusionThisstudyhasrepresentthechangeinindustryproportionofChangsha,ZhuzhouandXiangtanfrom2000to2014throughfigure1.ThefindingofthestudyshowthattheproportionstructureofthreeindustriesinChangsha,Zhuzhou,Xiangtanisnotinvariable,butkeepchanging.Comparedwithsecondin