2024-2028年美国营销支出展望

UpdatedMarketingSpendOutlook2024-2028

USedition

October2024

Executivesummary

Paiddigitalandeventchannelsarecapturingspend

growth;data-drivenmarketingremainsapriority,albeit

largeprojectsandinvestmentscontinuetobepostponed

•GrowthinB2Cmarketingbudgetshasfueledanincreasedspendonpaidmedia,particularlythroughdigitalchannels.Within

traditionalmediaspend,Out-of-Home(OOH)continuesto

outperformexpectations,leadingtoalower-than-expecteddeclineinoveralltraditionalmediaspend

•B2Bmarketers,facingbudgetconstraints,continuetooptimizepaidmediaspendwhileprioritizingface-to-faceevents

•Whiledata-drivenmarketingremainsastrategicpriority,new

investmentsandlargeprojectsarestillbeingpostponed,impactingspendonMarTechsolutions,andleadingtoanincreasedrelianceonmediaandagencypartnerstoprovidedata-drivensolutionsandsupport

B2Cgrowthoutpacesinitialforecasts,whileB2Brecoverylags

•B2Cgrowthhasoutperformedinitialforecastsfortheyear,drivenbybetter-than-expectedmacroeconomicconditions;however,thisgrowthisnotuniformacrossindustries,withCPGleadingtheway,accompaniedbycontinuedstrugglesintech,pharmaandretail

•ThemorepositivemacroeconomicoutlookhasledPluralto

readjusttheforecastgrowthfortheB2Csegmentfrom4%to5%for2023-24

•WhileB2Bbudgetswereanticipatedtoreboundthisyear,they

haveremainedrelativelystagnant,particularlyinthetechnology

sector;thishasledPluraltoreadjusttheB2Bforecastgrowthfrom4%to2%2023-24

2

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

1

OutperformanceofB2Cspend,offsetbyslower-than-expectedrecoveryinB2B

2024H1marketingspendhasslightlyoutperformedexpectations,leadingtoahigherrevisedB2Cforecastfrom+4%to+5%2023-24,

•Underlyingmacroeconomicconditionshaveperformedbetterthanexpected,withIMFrevisingUSGDPgrowthforecastto+2.6%,showingaslighimprovementontheJan2024forecastof+2.1%.Thispositiveshiftreflectsagrowingoptimismamongconsumers,whichhastranslatedintoincreasedspending

acrossvarioussectors.Businessesarerespondingbyallocatinggreaterresourcestotheirsalesandmarketinginitiatives

Growthhasvariedacrosssectors,withtheCPGsectorleadingtheway,whiletech,retailandpharmaremainweak

•GrowthinD2CwithintheCPGsectorhasdrivenincreasedadspend,acceleratedbythegrowthin

digital-nativestartupsinthespace,whichhasintensifiedcompetitionforshelfspace.Spendinginthetechnologysectorhasremainedweakasmanytechnologycompaniescontinuetoimplementausteritymeasures

However,slower-than-expectedrecoveryinB2BspendinghasledtoadownwardrevisionoftheB2Bforecastfrom+4%to+2%

•Whilethebroadereconomyhasshownsignsofrecoveryandresilience,theB2Blandscapecontinuestofacechallenges.B2Bbudgets,particularlyinthetechnology-relatedsectors,remainunderpressure,

leadingtoadownwardrevisioninforecast

Source:IMFJanuary2024andJuly2024GDPforecasts

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

3

Better-than-expectedmacroeconomicperformance

intheUS…

USrealGDPforecast:%changefromprevious

yearbasedonrevisedestimates

2.7

2.6

2.1

1.5

Oct-23forecast

Jan-24forecast

Apr-24forecast

Jul-24forecast

Note:Theprojectionsinthe2024MarketingSpendOutlookreportwerebasedontheJan-24forecast

Sources:IMF,USBureauofLaborStatistics,Pluralanalysis©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

…coupledwithreducedinflation,providingamorepositiveoutlookforconsumersandmarketers

USConsumerPriceIndex

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24

4

Short-termoutlookhasbeen

revisedslightlyupwardstoreflect

strongerB2Cspend,partiallyoffsetbyweakerB2Bspend

B2Cspendislikelytoseestrongergrowth2023-24thanB2B,supportedbyastronger-than-expected

macroeconomicperformanceflowingintomarketingspend.

However,B2Bbudgetshaveexperiencedaslower-

than-expectedrecovery,particularlyinthetechnologysector,astheinitialoptimismgoinginto2024failedtomaterialize.Thereisrenewedoptimismheadinginto2025,drivenbyimprovingmacroeconomicconditions(includinginterestratecuts).

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

TotalUSmarketingspendbycompanytype,2019-2028,$bn

CAGR

895

+5%

135

125

B2B

843

801

+9%

117

762

111

+14%

728

770

-8%

106

704

104

726

104

643

690

613

656

91

625

95

565

600

79

552

518

486

B2C

955

CAGR+6%

+3%

821

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

23-

24

2%

5%

24-

28

6%

6%

Note:Marketingspendexcludespoliticalspend

Source:Pluralanalysis,Pluralforecast

5

Growthinspendhasbeenunevenacrosssectors,withtheCPG,Telecoms&MediaandAutomotivesectorsleadingtheway;Technology,RetailandPharmaspendremainweak

Agencyweightedrevenuegrowthbyindustry,H12024vs.H12023

12%

2%

1%

0%

ConsumerProducts&F&B

Telecoms&Media

Automotive

PublicSector

-1%

FinancialServices

-2%

Pharma/Healthcare

-3%

Retail

-4%Tech

Source:Agencyfinancialreleases(Omnicom,WPP,PublicisandHavas)

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October20246

2

StrongerB2Cgrowthindigitalchannels,whilebudgetconstraintsoutsideofF2FeventsinB2Bcontinue;dataremainsastrategicpriorityformarketers

StrongerspendgrowthinB2ChasboostedspendondigitalandOOHchannels;B2BslowdowninpaidmediaspendisoffsetbycontinuedstrongspendonF2Fevents

•GrowthinB2Cspendhasledtostronger-than-expecteddigitalpaidmediaspend,withgrowth

strongestinrelativelynascentchannels,e.g.,retailmedianetworks.Traditionalmediaexpectsalowerdeclinethanpreviouslyanticipated,drivenbystrongOOHperformance

•B2Bmarketers,particularlyinthetechsector,continuetofacebudgetarypressures,leadingtoa

slowdowninpaidmediaspend–thisismostpronouncedinpaiddigitalandleadgenerationoutsideofLinkedIn.Despitethis,strongspendingonin-personeventshasbeenmaintainedasthechannelcontinuestobouncebackfromthepandemicwhichhasreaffirmedtheimportanceofface-to-face

communications

Continuedimportanceofadata-centricapproachinmarketing,withmarketersstillseekingsupportfromtheirmediaandagencypartners

•Withconstrainedbudgets,focusisonshort-termROI,puttinglargetransformationprojectsonhold,particularlyimpactingnewMarTechandSalesTechsolutions(vs.enhancementorreplacementofexistingCRM,marketingautomationandCDPsolutions)

•MarketersareseekingsupportfromagenciesandmediapartnersonAIandadvancedanalyticswherein-houseteamshavecapabilitygaps

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

7

Bothdigitalmediaandagencieshavegrown,notablyforB2CinH12024;PartsofB2Bdigitalpaidmediahasbeenimpactedfromdelayedrecoveryinthetechsector

CompanyrevenuegrowthbymarketingsegmentH12024vs2023,%change

Digitalmedia

19%

Traditionalmedia2

Agencies

8%7%

MarTech

B2B

TV/Media

OOH

9%

21%

Events

Digital

12%

10%

5%

9%

2%

4%

1%

Google

(Globaladvertising revenue)

Meta

(US

advertisingrevenue)

PublicisOmnicomWPP

(USorganic(USorganic(USrevenue)revenue)revenue)

Adobe

(MarTechrevenue1)

Hubspot

(Americasrevenue)

-1%

-2%

EmeraldXInformaLinkedInTechTarget

(PrimarilyUS(USrevenue)(Global(USrevenue)

revenue)revenue)3

-4%

ComcastDowJones

(Advertising(Advertisingrevenue)revenue)

SBG

(Advertisingrevenue)

JCDecaux

(USrevenue)

1–DigitalExperiencerevenuesonly;2–includespoliticalspend;3–Nobreakdownavailable,thoughfinancialstatementsindicategrowthacrossallsegmentsofLinkedIn,includingmarketingsolutions

Sources:Companyfinancials,Pluralanalysis

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

8

B2Cmarketingspendisexpectedtoincrease5%in2024,andonwardstrajectoryisstrong;digitalpaid

mediaisthefastestgrowingchannelwhilsttraditionalmediawillseecontinueddownwardpressureB2CUSmarketingspendbytype,2019-2028,$bn

821

57

CAGR+6%

770

51

55

83

Techanddata

59

726

Events/sponsorship

Agencies/services

Paidmedia(traditional)

46

51

690

+4%

88

41

47

656

+9%

625

38

42

600

79

35

+14%

61

-6%

76

33

38

552

61

35

73

30

518

71

62

68

23

63

26

293

486

65

62

39

27

269

66

19

71

249

65

58

230

73

213

322

198

88

66

Paidmedia(digital)

178

142

119

226

220

213

207

201

195

186

181

172

Internallabor

233

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

2023-24

8%10%4%

-2%

8%

3%

CAGR2024-28

11%9%4%

-1%

9%

3%

Source:Pluralanalysis,Pluralforecast

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

9

B2Bmarketingspendisduetoseegrowthfrom2025;paidmediaspendisforecastedtodeclineslightlyin

2024,partiallyoffsetbycontinuedstronggrowthinF2Fevents

B2BUSmarketingspendbytype,2019-2028,$bn

CAGR+6%

135

125

12

32

25

14

19

34

Techanddata

+1%

+14%

117

9

27

21

14

14

32

111

106

8

25

20

14

13

31

104

104

10

30

23

14

17

33

-17%

7

23

19

15

12

30

+15%

Events/sponsorship

7

22

19

16

12

30

95

91

5

23

14

17

7

29

6

10

16

17

12

30

79

7

16

18

18

14

32

5

8

15

14

9

28

Agencies/services

Paidmedia(traditional)

Paidmedia(digital)

Internallabor

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

2023-24

4%

8%

2%

-5%

-1%

2%

CAGR2024-28

12%

8%

6%

-3%

11%

3%

Source:Pluralanalysis,Pluralforecast

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

10

3

Appendix

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

11

PluralhasreviseditsmarketingspendestimatestoreflectgreateroptimisminB2Cspendin2024,

accompaniedbyamoremutedoutlookforB2Bspend

B2CUSmarketingspendbytyperevisioncomparison,2019-2028£bn

+6%

+4%

+4%

814821

+6%

764770

+9%

720726

-6%

+14%+5%

684690

652656

625

600

552

518

486

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

B2BUSmarketingspendbytyperevisioncomparison,2019-2028£bn

+6%

0%+4%+6%

139135

+14%

+2%

-17%+15%

129125

120117

108106

114111

104104

95

79

91

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

Source:Pluralanalysis,Pluralforecast

©PluralStrategyGroup2024|USMarketingSpendOutlook|October2024

Key:

OriginalForecastRevisedForecast

12

Pluralhasrevisedmarketingspendestimates,withaslightlyimproved2024outlookforB2C;B2Bforecast

hasbeenrevisedslightlydownduetolackofrecoveryinthetechsector

B2C

Spendsegment

Original24forecastJan24

Revised24forecastSept24

Change

TotalPaidMedia

4%

6%

+2pp

DigitalPaid

7%

8%

+1pp

TraditionalPaid

-4%

-2%

+2pp

Events&

Sponsorships

10%

10%

Nochange

Agencies&Services

4%

4%

Nochange

InternalLabor

3%

3%

Nochange

Tech&Data

8%

8%

Nochange

Source:Plura