2024年全球氢能评论Global Hydrogen Review 2024

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits

31membercountries,

13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

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SlovakRepublicSpain

SwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

Revisedversion,October2024

Informationnoticefoundat:

/corrections

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Abstract

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Abstract

TheGlobalHydrogenReviewisanannualpublicationbytheInternationalEnergyAgencythattrackshydrogenproductionanddemandworldwide,aswellasprogressincriticalareassuchasinfrastructuredevelopment,trade,policy,regulation,investmentsandinnovation.

Thereportisanoutputofthe

CleanEnergyMinisterialHydrogenInitiative

andisintendedtoinformenergysectorstakeholdersonthestatusandfutureprospectsofhydrogen.Focusingonhydrogen’spotentialroleinmeetinginternationalenergyandclimategoals,theReviewaimstohelpdecisionmakersfine-tunestrategiestoattractinvestmentandfacilitatedeploymentofhydrogentechnologiesatthesametimeascreatingdemandforhydrogenandhydrogen-basedfuels.Itcomparesreal-worlddevelopmentswiththestatedambitionsofgovernmentandindustry.

Thisyear’sreporthasaspecialfocusonLatinAmericaandincludesanalysisonrecentdevelopmentsoflow-emissionshydrogenprojectsintheregionandhowtounlockdemandandmovetowardsprojectimplementation.Inaddition,thereportassessesindetailthegreenhousegasemissionsassociatedwithdifferenthydrogensupplychains.

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

TheGlobalHydrogenReviewwaspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicy(ETP)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül,ChiefEnergyTechnologyOfficer.

UweRemme(HeadoftheHydrogenandAlternativeFuelsUnit)andJoseMiguelBermudezMenendezco-ordinatedtheanalysisandproductionofthereport.

TheprincipalIEAauthorsandcontributorswere(inalphabeticalorder):GiovanniAndrean(CCUSandgeospatialanalysis),SimonBennett(leadoninvestment),HeribBlanco(leadongreenhousegasesandpolicies;LatinAmerica),SaraBudinis(leadonCCUS),JonghoonChae(electricitygeneration),ElizabethConnelly(leadontransport),ChiaraDelmastro(leadonbuildings),StavroulaEvangelopoulou(productionanddatamanagement),MathildeFajardy(CCUS),AlexandreGouy(industry),RafaelMartinezGordon(buildings),ShaneMcDonagh(transport),MegumiKotani(policies),FrancescoPavan(leadonproductionandtrade),AmaliaPizarro(leadonLatinAmericaandinfrastructure;innovation),RichardSimon(leadonindustry)andDenizUgur(investment).

ThedevelopmentofthisreportbenefittedfromcontributionsprovidedbythefollowingIEAcolleagues:YasminaAbdelilah,AnaAlcaldeBáscones,LeonardoColina,IlkkaHannula,MartinKueppers,GabrielLeiva,QuentinMinier,PedroNinodeCarvalho,JenniferOrtizandMirkoUliano.

ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyseniormanagementandothercolleagueswithintheIEA,inparticularLauraCozzi,KeisukeSadamori,TimGould,PaoloFrankl,DennisHesseling,AlessandroBlasi,andAraceliFernandezPales.

Withgreatappreciation,wethankJoergHusarandAlejandraBernalwhoprovidedessentialsupportintheengagementwithLatinAmericastakeholders.

LizzieSayereditedthemanuscriptwhileAnnaKalistaandPer-AndersWidellprovidedessentialsupportthroughouttheprocess.

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SpecialthanksgotoProf.DetlefStoltenandhisteamatJülichSystemsAnalysis,ForschungszentrumJülich(HeidiHeinrichs,DanielRosales,ChristophWinkler,BernhardWortmann)fortheirmodelanalysisonhydrogenproductioncostsandanalyticalinputonwaterstresslevels.

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Acknowledgements

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ThanksalsototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereport,particularlytoJethroMullen,CurtisBrainard,PoeliBojorquez,JonCuster,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,LivGaunt,GraceGordon,ClaraValloisandWonjikYang.

TheworkbenefittedfromthefinancialsupportprovidedbytheGovernmentsofCanadaandJapan.ThefollowinggovernmentshavealsocontributedtothereportthroughtheirvoluntarycontributiontotheCEMHydrogenInitiative:Australia,Austria,Canada,Finland,Germany,theEuropeanCommission,theNetherlands,Norway,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.

Specialthanksgotothefollowingorganisationsandinitiativesfortheirvaluablecontributions:AdvancedFuelCellsTCP,HydrogenCouncil,HydrogenTCP,andInternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy(IPHE).

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Peerreviewersprovidedessentialfeedbacktoimprovethequalityofthereport.Theyinclude:NawalYousifAlhanaee,MaryamMohammedAlshamsiandAbdallaTalalAlhammadi(MinistryofEnergyandInfrastructure,UnitedArabEmirates);Abdul'AzizAliyu(GHGTCP);LaurentAntoniandNoévanHulst(IPHE);FlorianAusfelder,ThomasHildandIsabelKundler(Dechema);EstebanBarrantesVásquez(MinistryofEnvironmentandEnergy,CostaRica);FabianBarrera,MatthiasDelteil,MatthiasDeutschandLeandroJanke(AgoraEnergiewende);HamedBashiri,RobBlack,CarolineCzach,KathrynGagnon,AmandeepGarcha,EllenHandyside,AmirHanifi,OshadaMendis,CassieShang,MargaretSkwara,PhilTomlinsonandNicholeWarkotsch(NaturalResourcesCanada);LionelBoillot(EUCleanHydrogenPartnership);DavidBolsmanandAlfredMosselaar(RVO,Netherlands);PaolaBrunetto(Enel);FitzgeraldCantero(OLADE);FlorimarCeballosandRocíoValero(HydrogenTCP);PingChen(DalianInstituteofChemicalPhysics);TudorConstantinescu(DGENER,EuropeanCommission);Anne-SophieCorbeau(CenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,ColumbiaUniversity);LindaDempsey(CFIndustries);LuisDiazgranadosandWouterVanhoudt(Hinicio);RobertDickinson,StuartWalshandChanglongWang(MonashUniversity);JoeDoleschal-Ridnell,DorisFujiandShirleyOliveira(BP);RobertFischer(SWEA);TudorFlorea(MinistryofEcologicalTransition,France);AlexandruFloristean(Hy24);DanielFraile(HydrogenEurope);MatiasGarcía(MinistryofEnergy,Chile);EricC.Gaucher(LavoisierH2Ceoconsult);DolfGielen,CarolinaLopezRochaandSimonaSulikova(WorldBank);CelineLeGoazigo(WBCSD);JeffreyGoldmeerandKanikaTayal(GEVernova);MariaJoseGonzalezandMartínScarone(MinistryofIndustry,EnergyandMines,Uruguay);MarineGorner,JulianHoelzenandFrédériqueRigal(Airbus);PatrickGraichen(Independent);EmileHerben(Yara);StephanHerbstandKoichiNumata(Toyota);YoshinariHiki(ENEOS);KenjiIshizawa(IHICorporation);SteveJames(MinistryofBusiness,Innovation&Employment,NewZealand);NicolasJensen(TES);ConnorKerrandTJKirk(RockyMountainInstitute);IlhanKim(MinistryofTrade,

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IndustryandEnergy,Korea);YoshikazuKobayashi(TheInstituteofEnergyEconomics,Japan);LeifChristianKröger(ThyssenkruppNucera);ThomasKwan(SchneiderElectric);PierreLaboué(FranceHydrogène);MartinLambert(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies);WilcovanderLans(PortofRotterdamAuthority);FranciscoLaveron(Iberdrola);FranzLehnerandJanStelter(NOWGmbH);MichaelLeibrandt(FederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction,Germany);PaulLuccheseandJulieMougin(CEA);AlbertoDiLullo,AndreaDiStefanoandAndreaPisano(Eni);ConstanzaMeneses(H2LAC);MatteoMicheliandAndreaTriki(GermanEnergyAgency);SusanaMoreira(H2Global-HINT.Co);PatriciaNaccache(MinistryofMinesandEnergyofBrazil);MasashiNagai(Chiyoda);MotohikoNishimura(KawasakiHeavyIndustries);MaríaTeresaNonayDomingo(Enagás);ArielPérez(Hychico);CédricPhilibert(Independent);AndrewPurvis(WorldSteelAssociation);CarlaRobledoandDouweRoest(MinistryofEconomicAffairsandClimate,theNetherlands);AgustínRodríguezRiccio(Topsoe);XavierRousseau(Snam);SunitaSatyapal,JacobEnglander,MarcMelainaandNehaRustagi(DepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStates);SophieSauerteig(DepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZero,UnitedKingdom);RobertSchouwenaar(Shell);GuillaumeDeSmedt(AirLiquide);MichaelSmith(DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater,Australia);MatthijsSoede(DGR&I,EuropeanCommission);UrszulaSzalkowska(EcoEngineers);KenjiTakahashi(JERA);AndreiTchouvelev(ISO);DenisThomas(AccelerabyCummins);TatianaVilarinhoFranco(FortescueFutureIndustries);MarcelWeeda(TNO);JoeWilliams(GreenHydrogenOrganisation);JuanCamiloZapata(MinistryofMinesandEnergy,Colombia).

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Tableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 9

Recommendations 14

GlobalHydrogenReviewSummaryProgress 16

Chapter1.Introduction 17

Overview 17

TheCEMHydrogenInitiative 18

Chapter2.Hydrogendemand 20

Highlights 20

Overviewandoutlook 21

Refining 28

Industry 32

Transport 37

Buildings 53

Electricitygeneration 54

Chapter3.Hydrogenproduction 59

Highlights 59

Overviewandoutlook 60

Electrolysis 66

FossilfuelswithCCUS 78

Comparisonofdifferentproductionroutes 81

Emergingproductionroutes 94

Hydrogen-basedfuelsandfeedstock 99

Chapter4.Tradeandinfrastructure 104

Highlights 104

Overview 105

Statusandoutlookofhydrogentrade 105

Statusandoutlookofhydrogeninfrastructure 113

Chapter5.Investment,financeandinnovation 135

Highlights 135

Investmentinthehydrogensector 136

Innovationinhydrogentechnologies 150

Chapter6.Policies 163

Highlights 163

Overview 164

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Strategiesandtargets 166

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Demandcreation 172

Mitigationofinvestmentrisks 178

PromotionofRD&D,innovationandknowledge-sharing 190

Certification,standards,regulations 194

Chapter7.GHGemissionsofhydrogenanditsderivatives 203

Highlights 203

Overview 204

Systemboundariesandscopeofemissions 206

Emissionsintensitiesofhydrogenproductionroutes 208

Emissionsintensitiesofammoniaproductionroutes 215

Emissionsintensitiesof(re)conversionandshippingofhydrogencarriers 216

Emissionsintensityofcarbon-containinghydrogen-basedfuels 223

EffectoftemporalcorrelationonGHGemissions 230

Chapter8.LatinAmericainfocus 234

Highlights 234

Unlockingthepotentialoflow-emissionshydrogeninLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 235

Overview 237

Low-emissionshydrogenproduction 242

Low-emissionshydrogendemand 247

Movingtowardsimplementation 269

Annex 287

Explanatorynotes 287

Abbreviationsandacronyms 289

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Executivesummary

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Executivesummary

Moreprojectsandmorefinalinvestmentdecisions,butsetbackspersist

Globalhydrogendemandreached97Mtin2023,anincreaseof2.5%comparedto2022.Demandremainsconcentratedinrefiningandthechemicalsector,andisprincipallycoveredbyhydrogenproducedfromunabatedfossilfuels.Asinpreviousyears,low-emissionshydrogenplayedonlyamarginalrole,withproductionoflessthan1Mtin2023.However,low-emissionshydrogenproductioncouldreach49Mtpaby2030basedonannouncedprojects,almost30%morethanwhentheGlobalHydrogenReview2023wasreleased.Thisstronggrowthhasbeenmostlydrivenbyelectrolysisprojects,withannouncedelectrolysiscapacityamountingtoalmost520GW.Thenumberofprojectsthathavereachedafinalinvestmentdecision(FID)isalsogrowing:AnnouncedproductionthathastakenFIDdoubledcomparedwithlastyeartoreach3.4Mtpa,representingafivefoldincreaseontoday’sproductionby2030.Thisissplitroughlyevenlybetweenelectrolysis(1.9Mtpa)andfossilfuelswithcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)(1.5Mtpa).

HydrogenproductionfromfossilfuelswithCCUShasgainedgroundoverthepastyear–althoughthetotalpotentialproductionfromannouncedprojectsgrewonlymarginallycomparedwithlastyear,therewereseveralFIDsforpreviouslyannouncedlarge-scaleprojects,allofwhicharelocatedinNorthAmericaandEurope.Asaresult,thepotentialproductionin2030fromprojectsusingfossilfuelswithCCUSthathavetakenFIDmorethandoubledinthelastyear,from

0.6MtpainSeptember2023to1.5Mtpatoday.

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Overall,thisisnoteworthyprogressforanascentsector,butmostofthepotentialproductionisstillinplanningoratevenearlierstages.Forthefullprojectpipelinetomaterialise,thesectorwouldneedtogrowatanunprecedentedcompoundannualgrowthrateofover90%from2024until2030,wellabovethegrowthexperiencedbysolarPVduringitsfastestexpansionphases.Severalprojectshavefaceddelaysandcancellations,whichareputtingatriskasignificantpartoftheprojectpipeline.Themainreasonsincludeuncleardemandsignals,financinghurdles,delaystoincentives,regulatoryuncertainties,licensingandpermittingissuesandoperationalchallenges.

GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Executivesummary

Mapofannouncedlow-emissionshydrogenproductionprojects,2024

Source:IEA

HydrogenProjectsdatabase

(October2024).

Chinaandelectrolysers–thesequeltosolarPVandbatteries?

AnnouncedelectrolysercapacitythathasreachedFIDnowstandsat20GWglobally,ofwhich6.5GWreachedFIDoverthelast12monthsalone.Chinaisstrengtheningitsleadership,accountingformorethan40%ofglobalFIDsincapacitytermsoverthesameperiod.China’sfront-runningpositionisbackedbyitsstrengthinthemassmanufacturingofcleanenergytechnologies:itishometo60%ofglobalelectrolysermanufacturingcapacity.China’scontinuedexpansionofmanufacturingcapacityisexpectedtodrivedownelectrolysercosts,ashasoccurredwithsolarPVandbatterymanufacturinginthepast.Moreover,severallargeChinesemanufacturersofsolarpanelshaveenteredthebusinessofmanufacturingelectrolysers,andtodaytheyaccountforaroundone-thirdofChina’selectrolysermanufacturingcapacity.However,otherregionsarealsosteppingupefforts:inEurope,FIDsforelectrolysisprojectsquadrupledoverthelastyeartoreachmorethan2GW,whileIndiahasemergedasoneofthekeyplayersthankstoasingleFIDfor1.3GW.

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Executivesummary

Technologyinnovationismakingheadway,withsignspointingtoacceleratedprogressinthenearterm

GovernmentinvestmentinhydrogentechnologyRD&Dhasbeengrowingsince2016,andthiseffortisstartingtobearfruit.Todate,progresshasoccurredmostlyonthesupplyside,andnumeroustechnologiesareeitheralreadycommerciallyavailableorclosetothispoint.Promisingresultsarealsobeingseenforend-usetechnologies,withseveralapplicationsinindustryandelectricitygenerationreachingdemonstrationstage,aswellassignificantprogressintransportapplications,particularlyintheshippingsector.Inaddition,thenumberofpatentapplicationsleaptup47%in2022,withmostofthegrowthcomingfromtechnologiesthatareprimarilymotivatedbyclimatechangeconcerns.IncreasedactivityaroundpatentingsuggeststhatadditionalpublicfundingforR&Dandgrowingconfidenceinfuturemarketopportunities,backedbysupportivepolicies,arestimulatingmorenewideasandproductdesignswithcommercialpotential.

Low-emissionshydrogenwillremainexpensiveintheshortterm,butcostsareexpectedtofallsignificantly

Low-emissionshydrogenisanemergingsectorand,assuch,thereisuncertaintyaboutcosts.Today’selectrolysercostshavebeenrevisedupwardsforthisreport,basedonnewlyavailabledatafrommoreadvancedprojects.Thefuturecostevolutionwilldependonnumerousfactors,suchastechnologydevelopment,andparticularlyonthelevelandpaceofdeployment.WiththedeploymentseenintheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZEScenario),thecostoflow-emissionshydrogenproductionfromrenewableelectricityfallstoUSD2-9/kgH2by2030–halfoftoday’svalue–withthecostgapwithunabatedfossil-basedproductionshrinkingfromUSD1.5-8/kgH2todaytoUSD1-3/kgH2by2030.DeploymentlevelsintheStatedPoliciesScenario(whichconsidersexistingpoliciesonly)meanthatthecostrangewouldfallonlyaround30%.Asnaturalgaspricesfallinmanyregions,low-emissionshydrogenproductionfromnaturalgaswithCCUSisalsosettoexperiencecostreductions.

Costreductionswillbenefitallprojects,buttheimpactonthecompetitivenessofindividualprojectswillvary.Forexample,fulldevelopmentoftheentireelectrolyserprojectpipelineofalmost520GWwouldachievesimilarglobalcostreductionsasintheNZEScenario.InChina,globaldeploymentatsuchalevelwouldmeanthatthevastmajorityoftheproductionfromitscurrentelectrolyserprojectpipeline(1Mtpa)wouldbecheaperthanhydrogenproducedfromunabatedcoal.Globally,by2030,morethan5Mtpacouldbeproducedatacostcompetitivewithproductionfromunabatedfossilfuels,andupto12MtpawithacostpremiumofUSD1.5/kgH2.

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Thiscostgapwillremainanimportantchallengeintheshorttermforprojectdevelopers,butforfinalproductsforwhichhydrogenisanintermediatefeedstock,theimpactislikelytobemanageableinmanycases.Thecostpremiumoflow-emissionshydrogenproductiondecreasesalongthevaluechain,meaningthatconsumersoftenseeonlyamodestpriceincreaseinfinalproducts.Forexample,usingsteelproducedwithrenewablehydrogentodayintheproductionofelectricvehicles(EVs)wouldincreasethetotalpriceofanEVbyaround1%.

Progressisbeingmadeincreatingdemandforlow-emissionshydrogen,butthisstillneedstoscaleup

Effortstostimulatedemandforlow-emissionshydrogen(andhydrogen-basedfuels)arenowgainingtractionasgovernmentsbeginimplementingkeypolicies(suchasCarbonContractsforDifferenceinGermanyandtheEUmandatesinaviationandshipping).Thesemeasureshavealsotriggeredactionontheindustryside,withagrowingnumberofofftakeagreementssignedandthelaunchoftenderstopurchaselow-emissionshydrogen.However,theoverallscaleoftheseeffortsremainsinadequateforhydrogentocontributetomeetingclimategoals.

Policiesandtargetsforhydrogendemandsetbygovernmentsadduptoaround11Mtin2030,nearly3Mtlowerthanlastyearduetothedownwardrevisionsofsometargetsforhydrogenuseinindustry,transportandpowergeneration.Yettheamountoflow-emissionshydrogenproductionthathastakenFID(3.4Mtpa)orisalreadyoperational(0.7Mtpa),at4Mtpa,iswellbelowthatlevel.Thegapconstitutesacallforactiontoindustryandgovernmentstofacilitateofftakeagreementsthatcanhelpunlockinvestmentonthesupplyside.

Atthesametime,governmentpoliciesandtargetsfordemandarewellbehindtheproductiontargetsbygovernments(whichaddupto43Mtpain2030)andareevenlowerthanthepotentialsupplythatcouldbeachievedfromannouncedprojects(49Mtpa).Policymeasuresarestillinsufficienttocreatethelevelofdemandneededtoscaleupproductiontomeetgovernmentexpectations.Inaddition,somemoreambitiousactions(liketheEUtargetsinindustryapplicationsortherefiningquotasinIndia)havenotyetbeentranslatedintonationallegislation.Moreover,fromthearoundUSD100billionofpolicysupportforlow-emissionshydrogenadoptionannouncedbygovernmentsoverthepastyear,supportonthesupplysideis50%largerthanonthedemandside.Strongergovernmentactionwillbeneededtostimulatedemandforlow-emissionshydrogenasanessentialrequirementtounderpininvestmentsonthesupplyside.Industrialhubs,wherelow-emissionshydrogencouldreplacetheexistinglargedemandforhydrogenmettodaybyunabatedfossilfuels,remainanimportantuntappedopportunityforgovernmentstostimulatedemand.

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Executivesummary

Thenextstepsforcertificationandmutualrecognition

Governmentsareacceleratingthedevelopmentofregulationsontheenvironmentalattributesoflow-emissionshydrogen,particularlyregardinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.Clearandpredictableregulationscanstrengthencertaintyforlong-terminvestments.Yettheseframeworks,andtheassociatedcertificationschemes,remainunalignedacrossdifferentregions,creatingpotentialformarketfragmentation.Inresponse,atCOP28,37governmentscommittedtomutualrecognitionofnationalcertificationschemes,whileLatinAmericalaunched“CertHiLAC”,aregionalcertificationframework.Inaddition,theInternationalOrganizationforStandardization(ISO)hasreleasedamethodologyfordeterminingGHGemissionsassociatedwithhydrogenproduction,transportandconversion/reconversion.Thiswillbethebasisforafullstandardexpectedby2025or2026,whichcouldserveasacommonmethodologytoenablethemutualrecognitionofcertificates.However,somequestionsrelatedtotheassessmentofGHGemissionsinhydrogensupplychainsremainunresolved,suchashowtoaccountforemissionsfromtheconstructionandmanufacturingofproductionassets.Inthecaseoffossil-basedproduction,thereisaneedforbetterdataonupstreamandmidstreamemissionsoffossilfuelsupplyavailableinnationalinventoriesinordertoensurerobustassessmentoftheGHGemissionsassociatedwiththeseproductionroutes.

HydrogencanbeanopportunityforLatinAmericainthenewenergyeconomy,butisfacingchallenges

Thisyear’sreportincludesaspecialfocusonLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,followingthelaunchoftheIEA’sLatinAmericaEnergyOutlookin2023.LatinAmericaiswell-positionedtoemergeasamajorproduceroflow-emissionshydrogen,capitalisingonitsabundantnaturalandrenewableenergyresourcesandlargelydecarbonisedelectricitymix.Basedonannouncedprojects,by2030,LatinAmericacouldproducemorethan7Mtpaofhydrogenwithacarbonintensitybelow3kgCO2-eq/kgH2(3-4timeslowerthanusingunabatednaturalgas),inlinewiththerequirementsofseveralexistingregulationsaroundtheworld(e.g.theEUTaxonomy,Japan’sHydrogenSocietyPromotionActandtheUSCleanHydrogenProductionStandard).However,achievingthispotentialinfullwouldrequireasignificantincreaseinelectricitygenerationcapacity–equivalentto20%oftheregion’scurrentpoweroutput–andsubstantialinvestmentsinenablinginfrastructure,suchastransmissionlines.

ManyLatinAmericancountriesalreadyhavehydrogenstrategieswithastrongfocusonexportopportunities.However,theseplansmayneedtobeupdatedinlightofuncertaintyaboutthesizeoftheglobalhydrogenmarket.Atthegloballevel,therehasbeennogrowthinannouncedprojectslinkedtotradeofhydrogenandhydrogen-basedfuelsinthepastyear,suggestingthatprojectdevelopers

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GlobalHydrogenReview2024

Executivesummary

haveinsteadfocusedondomesticopportunities.InthecaseofLatinAmerica,theseopportunitiesaremostlyinrefiningandammoniaproduction,whichofferimmediatelarge-scaleapplications.Inthecaseofammonia,developingdomesticproductioncapacitieswouldhelptoreduceimportdependencyforfertilisersinaregionwhereagriculturemakesasignificantcontributiontonationalgrossdomesticproduct.

Asthemarketdevelops,newapplicationsinsteel,shippingandaviationwillemerge,togetherwiththeestablishmentofhydrogenhubs.Thesehubscanopenanopportunitytoscaleuphydrogenuseandproductionfordomesticneeds,whilealsoprovidingtheopportunitytoexporthydrogen-basedfuels,aswellasmaterialsproducedwithlow-emissionshydrogen,suchashotbriquettediron,allowingcountriesthataretodaylargeexportersofironore,likeBrazil,todevelopnewindustrialcapacitiesandscaleupinthevaluechain.Aphasedapproachtosupplyintheregion,startingwithsmaller-scaleprojects,willhelpmitigaterisks,reducecapitalinvestment,andprovidevaluableexperienceforscalingupinthefuture.Infrastructureplanninganddevelopment,especiallyinlong-leadprojectslikepowertransmission,shouldbeginimmediatelytosupportfuturehydrogenproduction.

Recommendations

Acceleratedemandcreationforlow-emissionshydrogenbyleveragingindustrialhubsandpublicprocurement

Governmentsshouldtakebolderactiontostimulatedemandforlow-emissionshydrogen.Theimplementationofpoliciessuchasquotas,mandatesandcarboncontractsfordifferencehasalreadystarted,butremainslimitedingeographicalcoverageandscale.Governmentscancapitaliseontheopportunityofferedbyexistinghydrogenusersandhigh-valuesectorssuchassteel,shippingandaviation,whichareoftenco-locatedinindustrialhubs.Poolingdemandinthesehubscancreatescaleandreduceofftakerisksforproducers.Additionally,makinguseofpublicprocurementforfinalproductsthatconsumelow-emissionshydrogenintheirproduction,andencouragingthedevelopmentofmarketswhereconsumersare