DB23-T2700-2020-气象灾害评估暴雨-黑龙江省

ICS07.060A47DB23黑龙江省地方标准DB23/T2700—2020气象灾害评估暴雨黑龙江省市场监督管理局发布DB23/T2700—2020目  次前言.....................................................................................................................................................................II引言...................................................................................................................................................................III1范围.................................................................................................................................................................12规范性引用文件.............................................................................................................................................13术语和定义.....................................................................................................................................................14国家气象观测站单站暴雨灾害评估.............................................................................................................25区域暴雨灾害评估.........................................................................................................................................2附录A（规范性附录）国家气象观测站单站暴雨灾害评估指数系数...........................................................4附录B（规范性附录）评估区域内各等级暴雨灾害站数占总站数的百分比计算方法...............................7参考文献...............................................................................................................................................................8IDB23/T2700—2020前  言本文件按照GB/T1.1—2020《标准化工作导则第1部分：标准化文件的结构和起草规则》的规定起草。本文件由黑龙江省气象局提出。本文件由黑龙江省气象标准化技术委员会归口。本文件起草单位：黑龙江省气候中心、天津气象科学研究所。本文件主要起草人：李亚滨、宋丽华、吴振玲、刘栋、蒋慧亮。IIDB23/T2700—2020引  言暴雨灾害是影响黑龙江省的重大气象灾害之一，具有突发性、局地性、影响范围广、致灾程度重的的特点，制定暴雨灾害等级评估标准，实现暴雨气象灾害评估工作的科学化、定量化、标准化，为政府防灾减灾救灾提供决策服务具有重要的意义。IIIDB23/TXXXX—2020气象灾害评估暴雨1范围本文件规定了国家气象观测站单站和区域暴雨灾害等级及暴雨灾害评估指数计算方法。本文件适用于暴雨灾害评估。2规范性引用文件本文件没有规范性引用文件。3术语和定义下列术语和定义适用于本文件。3.1小时最大降水量产生本次暴雨的天气过程,从开始到结束的降水总量。单站暴雨开始的前10日降水总量。1DB23/TXXXX—20203.63.7单站暴雨灾害评估指数Y评估单站发生暴雨灾害严重程度的指标。区域暴雨灾害评估指数I评估区域发生暴雨灾害严重程度的指标。4国家气象观测站单站暴雨灾害评估4.1单站暴雨灾害等级依据单站暴雨灾害评估指数确定单站暴雨灾害等级，划分为轻度、中度、重度、特重4个等级，见表1。表1国家气象观测站单站暴雨灾害等级等级类型特重重度中度轻度单站暴雨灾害评估指数Y≥2.51234单站暴雨灾害评估指数按式1计算。YkaR24maxbR1maxcRsumdR3sumeR10sum.....................................(1)5.1区域暴雨灾害等级依据区域暴雨灾害评估指数确定区域暴雨灾害等级，划分为轻度、中度、重度、特重4个等级，见表2。2DB23/TXXXX—2020表2区域暴雨灾害等级等级类型区域暴雨灾害评估指数1234特重重度中度轻度I≥4.22.8≤I＜4.22.3≤I＜2.8I＜2.35.2区域暴雨灾害评估指数区域暴雨灾害评估指数按式2计算。I.P.P.P.P......................................(2)式中：P1、P2、P3、P4为评估区域内特重、重度、中度、轻度暴雨灾害等级站数占评估区域内国家气象观测站点总数的百分比，计算方法见附录B。3DB23/TXXXX—2020AA附录A（规范性附录）国家气象观测站单站暴雨灾害评估指数系数通过相关分析法筛选出日最大降水、小时最大降水量、暴雨过程合量、前3日降水量和前10日降水量5个气象因子作为单站暴雨灾害评估指数的影响因子，利用灰色关联度分析法，将历史暴雨灾害过程个例灾情损失中的死亡人口、直接经济损失、农作物受灾面积作为计算灰色关联度的灾害指标，将各灾害指标进行归一化处理，消除量纲的影响，计算暴雨灾害的灰色关联度。利用灰色关联度与5个降水气象因子结合对1984-2010年暴雨灾害个例进行回归分析，建立单站暴雨灾害评估指数方程，最终确定单站暴雨灾害评估指数的权重系数，见表A.1。表A.1单站暴雨灾害评估指数系数表站名漠河塔河呼中新林呼玛加格达奇哈尔滨呼兰巴彦双城阿城五常宾县木兰尚志延寿方正通河依兰鹤岗萝北绥滨黑河孙吴逊克嫩江kabcde0.7830.7830.7830.7830.7830.7830.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5250.5250.5250.1450.1450.1450.145-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.0040.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.015-0.042-0.042-0.042-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.030.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0120.0120.0120.0170.0170.0170.0170.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0260.0260.0260.020.0070.0070.0070.0070.0070.0070.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0230.0230.0230.0190.0190.0190.0190.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.0050.0170.0170.0170.0130.0130.0130.0134DB23/TXXXX—2020表A.1单站暴雨灾害评估指数系数表（续）站名五大连池北安kabcde0.1450.1450.2520.2520.2520.2521.1741.1741.1741.1741.1741.1741.1740.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.9020.9020.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.2540.2540.2540.2540.463-0.030.0170.0170.0060.0060.0060.0060.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0170.0170.0170.0170.0170.0170.017-0.012-0.0120.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0550.0550.0550.0550.0200.020.0190.0190.0030.0030.0030.0030.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0130.0130.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.020.0130.0130.0120.0120.0120.012-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.021-0.014-0.014-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.010.0130.0130.0130.0130.006-0.030.02鸡西0.010.0040.0040.0040.0040.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0230.0230.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0070.0070.0070.007-0.008鸡东0.01密山0.01虎林0.01佳木斯汤原-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.018-0.018-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.016-0.016-0.016-0.0160.029桦川富锦同江抚远桦南牡丹江海林宁安七台河勃利齐齐哈尔讷河5DB23/TXXXX—2020表A.1单站暴雨灾害评估指数系数表（续）站名海伦绥棱庆安望奎青冈明水兰西肇东安达伊春嘉荫五营乌伊岭铁力大庆林甸杜尔伯特肇州肇源kabcde0.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.1820.1820.1820.1820.1821.9681.9681.9681.9681.9680.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0090.0090.0090.0090.0090.0140.0140.0140.0140.0140.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.020-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.0040.0120.0120.0120.0120.012-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.0080.018-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.0140.040.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0160.0160.0160.0160.016-0.018-0.018-0.018-0.018-0.0180.0180.0180.0180.018-0.013-0.013-0.013-0.013-0.0130.040.046DB23/TXXXX—2020BB附录B（规范性附录）评估区域内各等级暴雨灾害站数占总站数的百分比计算方法B.1特重等级暴雨灾害站数占总站数的百分比依据单站暴雨灾害评估结果，得出评估区域内发生特重等级暴雨灾害的站数n1，按式B.1计算其占总站数的百分比。nP%.........................................................................(B.1)N式中：N——评估区域内国家气象观测站点总数。B.2重度等级暴雨灾害站数占总站数的百分比依据单站暴雨灾害评估结果，得出评估区域内发生重度等级暴雨灾害的站数n2，按式B.2计算其占总站数的百分比。PnN%......................................................................(B.2)B.3中度等级暴雨灾害站数占总站数的百分比依据单站暴雨灾害评估结果，得出评估区域内发生中度等级暴雨灾害的站数n3，按式B.3计