【Bernstein】电动革命：分化-软件正在重塑汽车行业中国正蓄势待发

5RichardNguyen+33142135422DerricMarcon+33158980630derric.marcon@bernstWelcometothe2025editionofavehicle’sfunctionalityandperformanceislargelydeterminehardware.Forautomakers,thedecouplingbetweenhardwareandsoftwainthebusinessmodelthatpresentssignificantgrowthopportunitiesandstructuralchanges.Chinesemanufacturersarerapidlygainingmomentum.TheaverageoverallscoreofChinesecompaniesgrewby4ppto51%in2024vs53%(+1pp)forUSgroups,andthegapisrapidlynarrowing(2ppin2024vs4ppin2023),accordingtoGarner’sDigitalAutomakerIndex.EuropeanandJapaneseautomakerssawtheirscoresdeclinein2024,wideningthegapvsUSandChinesepeersandwithSouthKorekeycountries,whileEuropewasonlyslightlystructuresarethetwomostimportantf‘software-native’fromtheoutset.Fromfast-followers,Chinesegroupshavetratrend-setters.Butlegacyautomakers,suchasGMandVWarestrugglingtorapidlyoverhaultheircorporateculturesandR&Dorganisations.onsoftwarevsover50%fornewentrants(source:RolandBerger).Theautomotivesoftwaremarketissettogrowc.15%p.a.onaverageover2025-30toreachc.$66bnby2030vsc.$29bnin2024(perGrandView),withvehicleoperatingsystemsgrowingthefastest(>15%p.a.onaverage)andsoftwareapplicationsthelargestsegment(c.53%ofthetotalmarket).software-definedvehicle,batterymanagement,vehicle-to-everythe-airsoftwareupdates,cybersecurity,andAI/GenerativeAI.uncertaintiesarelikelytocontinuCapgemini),withsoftwarecompanies(e.g.SAPandDassaultSystèmSeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.FirstPublished:04Jun202504:00UTCCompletionDate:03Jun202517:38UTCRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June20253Jun2025AdjustedEPSAdjustedP/E(x)TickerTickerClosingPricePrice2024A2025E2026E2024A2025E2026E72.70116.00(48.0)%6.426.457.2411.311.310.0146.00214.00(31.8)%9.479.4810.2915.415.414.232.4348.00(22.4)%1.281.381.4625.223.622.2265.30284.0046.9%4.496.817.6659.138.934.6SAP304.66324.0052.4%4.496.817.6659.639.334.9146.50151.003.6%6.507.087.3215.514.113.71,429.05SPX5,970.37Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.Theautomotiveindustry’straEuropeansoftwareandservicesundekeyenablersforautomakersinthistransformation,andhavesubstantialrevenueexposuretotproviders,withsoftware•Amongtheservicesproviders,Capgemini,AltenandReplyderiverespectivelyc.8%,c.16%andc.10%oftheirrevenuesfromthissector.Since2024,CapgeminiandAltenhavesufferedasharpdeclineinbusinesswiththeirautocustomers,bothspecificmarketpositioning.Webelievethatgrowthprospectsinthissectorwillremainmutedin2025-26,n•Amongsoftwareproviders,SAPandDassaultSystèmesgeneratec.7%andc.22%,respectivelyoftheirrevenuesfromautomotivecustomers.WeestimatethatSAPhascontinuedtogrowitsrevenueatamid-to-highsingledigitrinthissector,asitscustomersneedtomodernisethtoSAP’sCloudERPsuite.WhileDassaultSystèmesprobablysawitssaleswithautomotiveclientsdeclineatalowsingle-digitWereiterateourratingsandpricetargetsforSAP(Outperform,PT€284/$324),DassaultSystèmes(Outperform,PT€48),Capgemini(Outperform,PT€214),Alten(Outperform,PT€116),andReply(Market-Perform,PT€151).Inthisreport,wementionmultip•Asianautos:BYD(O,PTHKD460/CNY420),Geely(O,HKD21),GreetWallMotor(MP,HKD13.5),Nio(MP,$4.5/HKD35),SAIC(MP,CNY15),Xiaomi(O,HKD60),andXpeng(MP,$19/HKD74)arecoveredbyEuniceLee;andHonda(MP,JPY1,250),Mazda•Europeanautos:BMW(O,€92),Continental(MP,€64),Mercedes-Benz(MP,€57),Porsche(MP,€37),Renault(OStellantis(MP,€10.48/$11.70),Volkswagen(MP,€90),andVolvo(U,SEK240)arecoveredbyDanielRoeska,Stephen•USautos:Ford(U,$8.3),GeneralMotors(U,•Technology:Oracle(O,$207)andMicrosoft(O,$Alphabet(MP,$185)byMarkShmulik;andAlibaba(O,$165/HKD161)byRobinZhu.RichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025Fromcarmanufacturer 3Whoisgaininggroundinthedigitalautomakerrace?China 5Howcanan 8 Software-DefinedVehicle 16 23Vehicle-to-EverythingCo 26 29Cybersecurityacross 33 35nologicaladvancementsandisthecontrollingfactorofalfrunningandthesoftwareapplicationsinstalledonit.businessmodel.ItoffGrowthopportunitiesincludeshorter,twotothree-yenewrecurringrevenuestreamswithhighermarginsthankstosoftware-basedsubscriptionservices,thecontinuousenhancementandupgradingofavehicle’scapabilitiesthroughoutitslifetime,andbettersoftwaThesefactorsshouldboostthepaceofinnovation,improveproductdifferentiationandcustomersatisfaction,anrelationshipwithcustomers.ChallengesstemfromthestructuraltransformationofthecorporaR&Dorganisation,fast-growingcomplexityofautomotivesoftware,andexpandinganddeepeningcollabcompanies.Thesefactorscouldbeparticularlydisruptivefortraditionalautomakers.industryconsultancyfirm,GartnerGroupNo.10.•TheaverageoverallscoreofChinesecompaniesincreased4ppto51%in2024.TheUSgroupsarestillleading,withascoreof53%(+1pp),butthegapvsChinaisrapidlynarrowing(2ppin2024vs4ppin2023).RichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025•EuropeandJapansawtheirrespectivescoresdeclineto36%and28%in2024.NotonlyhasthegapvsUSandChineseautomakersincreased,butSouthKoreahasalsocaughtuptocommanda34%share.In2024,JapanrankedlastamongmajorcountriesinGartner’sDAI,andSouthKoreawaspracticallyneckandne•Theaverageoverallscoreoflegacyautomakersremainedvirtuallyunchanged,at33%,in2024vs2023.Newentrantsimprovedtheirscoreby4pp,averaging59%in2024.MostofthesegainswereachievedbyChinesecompanies.techgroups.Chineseautomakershavetransformedfromfast-followerstotrend-settersinrecentyearsthankstosignificantinvestmenttobuildproprietarysoftwareplatformsanAmongwesternandJapaneseautomakers,Teslaremainstheposterchildforin-housesoftwaredevelForlegacyautomakers,themostcrucialfactorsarethetransformationoftheircorporateculture,andindispensablechangesinLeadershipisamongthemostimportantfactorsbecauseitsetsthemindsetanddirectiEuropeanandJapanese,alsotendtostruggleinothercategories.In2024,newentrants,suchasBYD,Xpeng,andRiviancontinuedtoimprovetheirCultureandLeadershipscores,whilethescoresofmostlegacyautomakersforthisfactorremainedTheR&Dorganisationatlegacyautomakershastoshiftfromhardware-focusedsiloswithasoftwarebudgettievehicleprogrammestoasoftware-centricmodelinwhichsoftwareengineeringhasatransversalroleandthebudglongertiedtoanyspecificprogrammes.TomodernisetheirR&Dorganisation,thesegroupscanadopt2)augmentcurrentinternalsoftwareengineeringresourceswiththand3)setupinternalsoftwareinnovationcentresinIndia,ChinaoreasternEurope.Whhavestrengthenedtheirin-housesoftwarecapabilitiesandexpandedtheirpartnershipswiMicrosoftandGoogle),theyLegacyautomakerscurrentlyallocateupto30%oftheirR&Dbudgettosopercentage,accordingtoindustryconsultancyfirm,RolandBerger.In2025,anaveragevehicle’svarioussystemsareexpectedtoinclude650millionlinesofcode,vs200millionin2020and100millionin2015(source:McKinsey).Theautomotivesoftwaremarket,bothin-vehicleandoff-board,isprojectedtogrowc.15%p.a.onaverageover2025-30torepresentc.$66bnby2030vsc.$29bnin2024,accordingtomarketresearcher,GrandViewResearch.Itexpectsvehicleoperatingsystemstogrowthefastestoverthisperiod,atmorfmiddleware’s+c.15%p.a.andsoftwareapplications’+c.14%p.a.•Softwareapplicationsshouldremainthelargestsegmentby2030,accountingforc.53%(c.$35bn)ofthetotalmarket,followedbymiddleware’sc.27%(c.$18bn)andoperatingsystems’c.20%(c.$13bn).In2024,thesesegmentsrepresentedc.54%(c.$16bn),c.27%(c.$8bn),andc.20%(c.$6bn)ofthemarket,respectively.In2025,ArtificialIntelligence,GenerativeAIandcybersecurityaretheleadingtechnolGartner.GenAIrankedtopofthelistwithfundingexpectedtoincreaseby90%ofrespondentssurvey86%,andAINo.3at84%.IntheGartnersurvey,62%and52%ofautomakersdeclaredthattheyhadalreadydeployedAIandGenAIintheircompanies,respectively.Respondentsexpectthesepercentagestoincreaseto90%forAIand92%forGenAI,withintwoyears,whicharethehighestaspirationsfordebatterymanagement,vehicle-to-everythingcommunication,over-the-airsoftwareupdates,cybersecurity,andAI/GenAI.RichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June20255Etransformationofvehiclesintoa‘softwareplatformonwhdemonstratedthepowerofthisapproach.Theycanlaunchnewmodelsevery12-18months,continuouslyenhancevehiclecapabilitiesviaover-the-airsoftwareupdates,andmaintainclose,lastingrelatlifecycleviasoftware-basedservices.Inpractice,the‘software-first,approachmorerevenuesandprofitsfromthesaleofcar-focuseddigitalfeaturesanddigitalservices(i.e.over-connectedcarservicesubscriptions,etc.).Thefocusofautomakersonsoftwareisalsoanecessitydictatedbyelectrification.Batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)willlikelybecomedominantinthefuBEVsarelikelytoreduceservicesandpartsrevenues,aswellasextendthelifeofvehicles,whichinturncouimpactnewvehiclesales.assesshowwellpositionedeachautomakerisinitsquesttextractedfromsoftware.Wenotethatin2024,theaverageoverallscoreoflegacyautomakers,at33%,hasremainedvirtuallyunchangedvs2023.Forinstance,mostofthesegroupshavenotyetlaunchedtheirowncentralisedvehicleE/E(Electric/Electronic)architecture,whichisabsolutelycriticalforthesoftware-definedvehicleapproach.Wewilldetailthesetechnologieslaterinthisreport.Ontheotherhand,newmarketentrantshaveimprovedtheiroverallscoreby4pp,averaging59%in2024vs54%in2023.MostofthisincreasecamefromChineseautomakers(Exhibit2).increased4pp,from47%to51%.ThisresultcorroboratestherapidpacewithwhichChineseautomakersaredevelopingandthegaptheyhaveagainstUSandChineseautomakersincreased,buSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupGartner’sDAIincludeseightdifferentcategories:1)CultureandLeadership;2)Talent;3)VehicleE/Earchitecture;4)Connectedvehicle;5)Autonomy;6)Electrification;7)Techexperience;and8)On-lineprRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025Giventheoverallpurposeofourreport(i.e.focusonchapter,wefocusontheoverallscore,andonthesoftware-relatedcategories:VehicleE/Earchitecture,Connectedvehicle,Electrification,AutonWeprovidethefindingsintheotherthreecategories—Culturechapter.CorporatecultureandLeadershipandTalentarepautomakers.Thetopvendorsinthesecategories,mostoftenAmericanandChinese,areusuallyalsostrongperformersacrossChineseandAmericanautomakersgreatlybenefitfromthestrongtechnologyindustrypresentintheircoresourcesandtalent.Moreover,weChinesecounterparts.architectureisreallyagame-groundin2024inthiscategory,accordingtoGartner.Source:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupllSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroup•Connected-vehiclescore(Exhibit5functions,suchas5G,over-the-air(OTA)softwareupdates,connectedservices,etc.ThisscoreshowsOEMs’abilitytomonetiseSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025topurchasemore.WhileFord,BMWandMercedeshaveincreasedtheirrespecSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroup•Electrificationscore(Exhibit9,impacted.Source:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroup•Autonomyscore(Exhibit11systems(ADAS),availabilityofLevel-3autonomyinproductioorganisationsthatfocusoncustomersafety,suchasEuroNCAP(EuropeanNewCarAssessmentProgramme),C-NCAP(ChinaNewCarAssessmentProgram),andonthisscorein2024vs2023,withonlyToyotaandHyundaiKiaslightlyindecline.Source:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025Asautomanufacturersaimtobecomemore‘software-enabled,,mindsetandrapidlyevolvesupplychainnetworks,andexpansionoftheecosystemwithnewtechnologypartners.groupsareandtheirabilityto•CultureandLeadershipscoreleadershipteamshowsthatsoftwareisatopprioscores,GM,FordandTeslahavelostground.WhilethescoresofmostEuropeanandAsiancHyundaiKiahasimproveditsscoreandVW’shassharplydeclined.Source:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupdemonstratesthewillingnessofacompanytohavethebesttalenttheaveragecompensationpackageaswellaslocationofcarsoftwarehubsinrelationtotechtalenthotspots.andRivianhaveimprovedtheirrespectivescores,mostotheraSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupmonetisedigitalfeaturesandservices,andincreasesoftware-drivenrevenueopportunities.Inthisarea,whileMazda,HoRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025Source:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupcontrolledverytightly,wentrants,suchasTeslaandChinesemanufacturershasbeencentredsincetheoutsetaroundtheirin-housesoftwareteams,traditionalOEMsarestillonatransformationjourney.Forinstance,in2020,VolkswagenGroupcrdeliveranautomotiveoperatingsystem(OS),auOurconversationswithvariousautomakersandtechnologyproviders(bothmanufacturersneedacomprehensiveenterpriseplatformwithanERP(EnterpriseResourcePlanning)solution,suchasthosedevelopedbySAPorOracleasthefoundation.Thiintermsofdevelopment,AutoOEMsandtheirsuppliersareputtinginplaceneworganisationalstructurestounifysoftwareengineering,vehiclehardwareintegration/continuousdeployment(CI/CD)methodologiestodeliverontheirstrategicsoftware-definedvehicle(SDV,toexplainedinasubsequentchapter)objectives.•Inthenearfuture,100%ofautonomousvehicle(AV)architecturedevthan20%now.Currentmethodologyisoftenincludingsensors,perception,planningandcontrol.Testingandtrainingtheselayersindependentlyhasdrawbacksbecauseplanningandcontrol)withrecordedsensordata(requiredfortrainingperceptionsystems).ThecloudprovidesaplatfoanintegratedapproachtodevelopmentoflargeandunifiedAImodels.Forinstance,Nvidia’sOmnhigh-fidelitysensorsimulationwithmodelingofthephysicsandbehaviourofanAV’ssensorsandsurroundings.inLevel4vehicles.Whilemostofthisdataisabandclouddatacentrestoacceleratethedevelopmentofautonomousdrivingsoftware.Tandprovideevidenceofthecauseofaccidents.Chineseelectricvehicle(EV)manufacturersimplementdatacollectionsystemsindustries(e.g.insurance)andgovernmentagencies.•Softwareportabilityneedstobedesignedintosystemssothatihardwareplatformsattheedge.Thisarchitectureextendsfromthecloudinfrastructuredowntothevehicleitself.Traditionally,theOEMmodelwasorganisedaroundhnew‘software-centric’organisation(Exhibit19),softwareengineeringhasatransverRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025vehicleprogrammes.HW:hardware,SW:software,EE:electronicandelectric,UX:userexperienSource:Bernsteinanalysis,RolandBergerSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupForautomakers,thenewwayofdeintegrated,iterativemodel,whichinsourcesmuchofthedesonlymorecommoditised/fullyspecifiedcomponents.This,inturn,shortensdevelopmenttimes.AutomakersmayadoptdifferentapproachesinstructuringtheirsoftwareorganientrantsorexistingOEMs(Exhibit20).•Newentrants,suchasTesla,BYDandRivianadoptthesamesoftwareengineeringapproachseenattechnologycompanTheyhaveaflatorganisationofsmall,detoend,whichistightlycoupledwithasetofdomainsempoweredbyspecific,high-performancechipsetstoprovidealayerofabstractionforthesoftwaretooperateon.Asaresult,theycantmodifyexistingstructures.•TraditionalOEMs’existingsdevelopmentofsoftware-definedfeatures.Theseautomakersapplyoneormoreofthefollowingapproaches.immediatecapabilitiestodeliverdigitalfeature•Augmentinternalsoftwareengineeringresourceswithexternalcost,high-techlocations,suchastheUSWestCoast.preferreddestinationsforitsautomotivecustomerswhentheyrelocatetheiroutsourcedR&Dactivities.ChineseOEMshavetransformedfromfast-followerstotrend-settersinrecentyearsthankstosignificantinvestmeproprietarysoftwareplatforlandscapewithBYDleadingthecharge.Thegrouphasadoptedaverticalapproachthatcontrolsnearlyeveryaspectofitsvaluechain—fromrawmaterialextractionandbatteryproductiontosofAmongwesternOEMs,Teslaremainstheposterchildforin-anintegratedhardware/softwareapproachenablesthegrouptADfeatures,batterymanagementsystemsastrengthenedtheirin-housesoftwarecapabilities,theyarestillconsiderablybehindnewentrants.RichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025Giventheever-increasingtechnologicalcomplexity,automakersnecompetitors,tostayattheforefrontoftechnologicaladvancements.Thesepartnershipscanrangefromstrategicalliancestojoiventures(JVs),andevenacquisitions.TheprimaryobjereduceR&Dcostsandacceleratetime-to-marketforinnovativeproducts.•FollowingthestrugglesofCARIAD,itssoftwaredivision,VWinvestedc.$6bninRivianin20EVvendor’ssoftwareexpertise.Thenext-generationGolf,anEVplannAudiandPorscheplannedtoadoptRivian’ssoftwarearchitectureby2027.•BMWandTataTechnologiestrategicsoftwaredevelopment,includingsoftware-definedvehicles,automateddriving,infotainmentanddigitalservices.NvidiaalsocollaborateswithChinesemanufacturers,namelyBYD,NioandXiaomionADASandfutureSource:Bernsteinanalysis,BostonConsultingGroupOEMsfacemultiplechallengesintheirtransformationinto‘software-first’manufacture•Theculturalalignmentbetweenhardwareandsoftwarestructuresisdifficult.Establishingandscalingacohesiveandeffectivesoftwaredivisionwithinanorganisationhistoricallyfocusedonhardwarerequiressignificantstructuralchangessoftwareengineeringanddeliveryofnewfeaturesneverend,whichisastructuralshiftfromtheonce-in-a-whilevehicle•OEMscanstruggletobalanceeffectivelytheirin-housesoftwaredevelopmentwithstrategicpartnerships.PartnershipsarecrucialbecausetheylimitrisksandfewOEMscanbuildhighlycomplexsystems,suchasADsystemsbythemselvestheycouldalsoslowprogressinafast-movingindustry.•OEMshaveofteninternalskillsandtocompoundmatters,theycompetewithtechnologyandothersectorsforthe•Beyondtechnicalaspects,OEMsneedalsotoreorganisetosupportandmonetisenewbusinessmodelswithsoftware-basedsubscriptionservices.Automakersmustevaluatesupportareas(e.g.finance,operations,customersuccess,supplychain)andprocesses(e.g.training,financialreporting,order-to-cash,make-vs-bandworkflowsareneeded.RichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@4June2025nowfacingpressuretosignificantlycompresstheirdevelopmentcyclesbeInthetraditionalmanufacturingapproach,softwareisfivehicledoubledfrom100millionin2015to200millionin2020,vsonly10millionin2010,accordingtoindustryconsultancyfirm,McKinsey.In2025,anaveragevehicleisexpectedtohave650millionlinesofcodesintotalinitsvarioussyWithasoftware-definedvehicle(SDV)approach,OEMscanbuildtheircarsaroundsoftwareplatforms,releasebandprogressivelyenhancefunctionalitythroughsoftwarevehicleperformancecanbeupgradedremotelywithoutphysicalmodificationSource:Bernsteinanalysis,GartnerGroupSource:Bernsteinanalysis,BeryllsStrategyAdvisorsbetween2021and2030,from$26bnin2021to$38bnin2024to$59bnby2030,accordingtoRolandBerger,anindustrypureSDVapproachwouldseein-vehiclesoftwaredevelopmentbudgetsincreasingfrom$22bnin2021to$33bnin2024to$41bnby2030,accordingtoRolandBerger.Source:Bernsteinanalysis,RolandBergerSource:Bernsteinanalysis,RolandBergerRichardNguyen+33142135422richard.nguyen@