（高清版）DB34∕T 5239-2025 气象为农服务 冬小麦

34Meteorologicalservicesforagriculture—WinterwheatI请注意本文件的某些内容可能涉及专利。本文件的发布机构不承担识别专利的责任。1气象为农服务冬小麦3.1气象适宜度meteorologicalsuitability3.2农业气象灾害风险agrometeorologicaldisasterrisk3.3物根部环境条件恶化，造成植株生长与发育不良3.43.5冻害freezinginjury作物越冬期间，当遇到0℃以下强烈低温或剧烈变温，作物体内3.623.74.1应至少从冬小麦常年播期的前204.2应在冬小麦全生育期开展主要农业气象灾害和病虫害调查，适时掌握相关灾情及其对小麦产量、36.1.2关键生育期预报气象指标与方法参见附录A。6.2主要农业气象灾害风险预警服务6.2.1预计已进入或即将进入灾害的影响时期或气候型病害流行关键期，且未来天气、气候条件将导致该灾害发生时，开展农业气象灾害风险预6.2.2农业气象灾害风险预警宜划分为较低风险、中等风险、较高风险和极高风险4个等级。农业气表2农业气象灾害风险预警等级标准及其农业农业农村部门制定气象灾害防控技术措植株生长发育受到抑制；部分受害植株不农业农村部门制定农业气象灾害防控技6.2.3应关注的主要农业气象灾害风险预警等级划分气象指标参见附录B。6.2.4农业气象灾害风险预警服务产品中，应根据农业灾害类型、风险预警等级情况，提出针对性抗灾田管建议。各类灾害的抗灾田管建议可参考郭天财等《小麦高产与防灾减灾技术》6.3重要农事活动气象适宜度预报服务4表3农事活动气象适宜度等级划分、农业气象学123255,0,06.3.3各重要农事活动气象适宜度预报气象指标与方法参见附录C。5123的日期(D)用式A.1进行计算：Ti——第i日监测的日平均气温；Tj——未来第j日预报的日平均气温；6B.1.1应用标准化前期降水蒸散指数（SAPEI）划分冬小麦干旱气象风险等级，见表B.1。表B.1基于标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)的冬小麦干旱风险等级划分与气象指标SAPEI≤-2.0B.1.2SAPEI由前期降水蒸散指数（APEI）历时序列数据X={x1，x2，……,xn}，进行三参数的log-logistic概率分布拟合及正态标准化求得。记log-logistic拟合分布超过某个x值的累积概率P=1-F当[P≤0.5]时，概率加权矩w=√-2ln(P)，当[P>0.5]时，概率加权矩w=√APEI=∑0(Ki.∆wi)···························································(B.3)i——日水分收支量，应按公式B.4计算。7····································································(B.6)Y=w0αΓ(1+1⁄β)Γ(11⁄β)··············································(B.8)表B.2基于标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)的涝渍害风险等级划分和气象指标日最低气温阈值(℃)-14.3～-11.7-13.4～-9.1-9.0～-7.1-15.5～-14.4-14.2～-13.5-11.0～-9.1-16.8～-15.6-15.0～-14.3-13.0～-11.1<-16.9<-15.1<-13.1B.4倒春寒-2.0～0.5-1.0～1.00.0～1.5-1.5～0.50.0～1.50.6～2.0-5.0～-2.1-3.5～-1.1-1.0～-0.1-5.0~-1.6-3.0～-0.1-0.5～0.5-8.0～-5.1-6.0～-3.6-2.5～-1.1-7.0~-5.1-5.0～-3.1-1.5～-0.68阴雨日指标，视为连阴雨过程持续。冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨气象指标及风险等3366≥7≥9≥7等级，见表B.6。度日最高气温(℃)14时相对湿度(%)型≥30≤30≥3≥32≤30≥3≥34≤30≥3≥35≤30≥3型晴，温度骤升，3天内有1天以上最高气温≥30℃,14时风速≥3m/s。B.7.1根据综合气象条件指数（Ic）判别冬小麦赤霉病发生流行气象风险等级，见表B.7。Ic阈值Ic≥3.65Ic≥3.85Ic≥3.55Ic≥4.17Ic≥4.19Ic≥4.592.15≤Ic2.89≤Ic<3.852.90≤Ic<3.553.17≤Ic<4.172.96≤Ic<4.191.67≤Ic<2.151.60≤Ic2.04≤Ic<2.901.74≤Ic<3.171.91≤Ic<2.962.36≤Ic<2.88IcIcIcIcIcB.7.2Ic应按照公式B.10计算：）；Ti——感病窗口期日平均气温(℃)。9f(Ti)——气温影响函数，按公式B.12计算：f(Ti)={125≤Ti<26·······················································(B.12)BZMI=max[f(T),f(R),f(W)]·····················································(C.1)f(R)——降水影响函数，按公式C.3计算：无法获取土壤相对湿度数据时，f(W)也可用表征农田水分供需状况的日标准化前期降水蒸散指数（（））SFMI=max[f(T),f(FS),f(W)]·····················································(C.6)=110.0≤T<30.0适宜=110.0≤T<30.0适宜次适宜··············································(C.8)f(W)=315.0≤R48<35.0且10.0≤R24<20.0适宜15.0≤R48<35.0且(R24<10或R24≥20)次适宜·····························(C.9)C.3.1病虫防治喷药气象适宜度等级平均气温（T，℃)PYMI=max[f(T),f(FS),f(R)]···················································(C.11)f(T)——气温影响函数，按公式C.12计算：次适宜···············································(C.13)次适宜··················································C.3.2化学除草气象适宜度等级CHMI=max[f(T),f(FS),f(R)]·················································(C.15)次适宜···············································(C.17)SHMI=max[f(R),f(FS),f(W)]···················································(C.19)f(FS)——风速影响函数，按公式C.f(W)——农田水分影响函数，按公式C.22计算：