2025年全球商用车市场的未来及原始设备制造商行动必要性研究报告（英文版）

July2025

TheFutureoftheCommercial

VehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct

Introduction03

Executivesummary04

Emergingtruckindustrytrends05

Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture10

Potentialscenariosresultingfromthetrends16

Scenarioimpactonthetruckvaluechain20

Financialconsequencesandno-regretmoves24

Contacts34

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Introduction

03

Introduction

Historically,heavycommercialvehicle(HCV)OEMshaveoperatedinacomparativelystableandprofitablemarketenvironment.Their

successhaslargelystemmedfromabusinessmodelanchoredin

long-termB2Brelationships,provendieseltechnologies,anda

strongfocusonreliability,uptime,andperformance.Innovationhastypicallyfollowedapragmatic,evolutionarypath,guidedby

customerpriorities–primarilytotalcostofownership(TCO)and

operationaldurability.Inmanyways,HCVOEMshavebenefited

fromslow-changingcustomerpreferences,conservativeinvestmentcycles,andprovenproductportfoliosacrossregions.Thesefactorshaveenabledthemtomaintainhealthymargins,streamline

operations,andfocusonincrementalimprovementratherthan

disruptivechange.However,thisonce-steadymodelisnowundermountingpressure,drivenbyaconvergenceoftransformationaltrendsandgrowingstrategicambiguity.

Thetransitiontowardzero-emissiontransport,regulatorytighteningaroundCO₂emissionsandpollutants,andincreasingdigitalizationarereshapingbothproductrequirementsandvaluecreation

models.Atthesametime,thetraditionalvehicleownershipmodelisbeingchallengedbytheriseofservice-basedmodels,withfleet

customersseekingflexibility,uptimeguarantees,andintegrated

digitalsolutions.Furtheraddingtothecomplexityaregeopolitical

uncertainties,supplychaindisruptions,andvolatileinputcosts,allofwhichintroducenewoperationalrisksandinvestmentchallengesandforceHCVOEMstoreassesstheirstrategicpositioning.

Thisstudyevaluatesfourpotentialstrategicscenariosthatmaybe

theindustry’sfuture,eachwithdistinctimplicationsforproduct

strategy,operatingmodels,andfinancialrequirements.Before

divingintoscenario-specificanalysesandimpacts,italsoidentifiesasetof“no-regret”moves-areaswhereOEMsmustactregardlessofwhichfutureunfolds.

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|ExecutiveSummary

04

Executivesummary

IndustryTransformationUnderway

Thecommercialvehicleindustryisundergoingadisruptiveshiftdrivenby

decarbonization,digitalization,regulatorypressures,andevolvingcustomer

expectations-forcingOEMstorethinkbusinessmodels,portfolios,andcapabilities.

Fourstrategicscenariostopreparefor

By2035,OEMsmayfaceoneoffourdistinctmarketscenarios-rangingfrom

traditionalownershiptofulltruck-as-a-service(TaaS),andfromhighproductcomplexitytofullstandardization-eachwithuniqueoperational&financialimplications.

Truck-as-a-Servicegainsmomentum

TaaSisemergingasacompellingmodelforfleetoperatorsseekingriskreductionandflexibility.ForOEMs,itoffersrecurringrevenuebutrequiresmajorshiftsinfinance,

servicedelivery,anddigitalcapability.

ProductcomplexitychallengesOEMeconomics

Managingmultipledrivetrains(Diesel,BEV,FCEV)andweight-usecombinationsis

drivingproductcomplexityandcosts.Modularizationandplatformstandardization

areessentialforscalingzero-emissionofferingsandmanagingoperationalburden.

Financialriskdifferssharplybyscenario

High-complexityTaaSisthemostcapital-intensivescenario,whilestandardizedownershipyieldsthemostfinanciallyefficientmodel.OEMsmustbalance

investment,riskexposure,andassetmanagementacrossevolvingstructures.

Six’no-regret’strategicmoves

Regardlessofthescenario,OEMsmustinvestinZETplatforms,digitalinfrastructure,flexiblemanufacturing,strategicpartnerships,workforcereskilling,andcostreduction-buildinglong-termcompetitivenessamidanuncertainindustryfuture.

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Emergingtruckindustrytrends

05

Emergingtruckindustrytrends

Thetruckindustryisundergoingsomesignificantchanges,thatimposemajorchallengesforOEMs.

2.1Introductiontotrendclusters

Theheavycommercialvehicleindustryisnavigatingaperiodofprofound

transformation,shapedbypowerfulandinterconnectedtrends.Thesedynamicsspanfourkeydomains:geopoliticalandregulatorypressures,technological

challenges,changingcustomerbehavior,andacompetitiveecosystem.Taking

criticaldecisionpointsacrossthis

spectrumofindustrydriverswilldeterminewhichOEMsarereadytomeetfuture

customerrequirementsandthereby

securecompetitivemarketpositioning.

Thischapteroutlinesthemostcritical

trendsacrossthesedomains,providingastructuredoverviewoftheforces

redefiningtheindustry’sstrategicprioritiesandshapingfuturevaluecreationfortruckmanufacturers.

Figure1:Keytrendsimpactingthetruckindustry

Geopoliticsandregulations

Macroeconomicandgeopoliticalvolatility

Decarbonizationandemissionregulations

Supplychainconstraints

ChangingCustomerBehavior

Shiftfromownershiptousage-basedmodels

Fleetinvestmentuncertainty

Digitalizationofcustomerinteractions

Technologicalchallenges

Drivetraindiversification

Autonomousandconnectedvehicles

Productplatformsandtoolboxprinciples

Competitiveecosystems

Newentrantsandcompetitivedisruption

Integrateddigitalandplatformservices

In-lifeservicesandpredictivemaintenance

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Emergingtruckindustrytrends

06

2.2Futuredefiningtrends

LetusexplorethekeytrendclustersshapingthetruckmarketandtheirstrategicimplicationsforOEMs.

Geopoliticsandregulations

Inthisdomain,threepowerfulforces

areputtingpressureontruck

manufacturerstotransformtheir

operationsandproductportfolios.First,macroeconomicandgeopoliticalvolatilityhasintroducedheighteneduncertaintyintoglobalsupplychains,energy

markets,andtradeflows.TheongoingwarinUkraine,tensionsintheTaiwanStrait,andinstabilityintheMiddleEastareallcontributingtorisingenergy

prices,commodityscarcity,and

disruptionsinrawmaterialsourcing–

whichisespeciallycriticalforbattery

manufacturing.Second,decarbonizationandemissionregulationsarebecomingmorestringent,consistent,andbindingacrosskeymarkets.FromtheEU’sCO₂fleetlimitstoCalifornia’sAdvanced

CleanTrucks(ACT)ruleandsimilar

regulationsinChina,OEMsmust

urgentlyrethinktheirpowertrain

strategiesandacceleratethe

developmentofsuitabletechnologies

tobecomereadytomeetfuture

standards.Third,supplychain

constraints—highlightedduringthe

COVID-19pandemicandfurther

stressedbysemiconductorshortages

andshippingbottlenecks—continuetocreateproductiondelays,reduce

forecastingaccuracy,andincreaseworkingcapitalrequirements.

Technologicalchallenges

Inlinewiththebroadsetofusecases

forHCVs,anewrequirementarisesforabroadsetofdrivetrainoptionsto

matchtheusecases.OEMsneedto

diversifyintermsofdrivetrains.Where

dieseloncereignedsupreme,abroaderpropulsionlandscapenowemerges,

encompassingBEVs,FCEVs,e-fuels,andhybridoptions—eachwithdifferent

implicationsconcerningcost,

infrastructure,range,andusecasesuitability.Thisdiversificationaddscomplexityanddrivesfurthercostsin

areaslikeR&D,procurement,

manufacturing,andserviceoperations,whichrequiresOEMstopursue

platformflexibilitywhileavoiding

unmanageableproductproliferation.Inparallel,theemergenceofautonomousandconnectedvehiclesissettoredefinehowtrucksaredriven,maintained,andmonetized.Whilefullautonomy

remainsyearsawayfrommass

adoption,increasinglevelsofdriver

assistanceanddigitalconnectivityarealreadyreshapingTCOconsiderationsandfleetoptimizationstrategies.Third,modularproductplatformsandtoolboxprinciplesarebecomingessential

enablerstomanagecomplexitywhilepreservingadaptability.OEMsare

increasinglymovingawayfrom

bespoke,one-offproductdevelopmenttowardsscalable,reusableplatforms

thatcanaccommodatedifferent

drivetrains,cabinconfigurations,andregionalrequirementswithminimalincrementalinvestment.

Changingcustomerbehavior

Duetotheglobaluncertaintiescoupledwithchangesinpropulsionsystems,

fleetoperatorsareseekingtoincreaseflexibilityandreducerisk.

Thishasleadtotheshiftfromownershiptousage-basedmodels,suchastruck-as-a-Service(TaaS),subscriptionofferings,andpay-per-usemodels.These

approachesreduceupfrontcost

barriersforfleetsandtransfer

maintenance,repair,andresalerisktoOEMsorfinancialpartners.Closely

relatedisthegrowingfleetinvestmentuncertainty.Withnewtechnologies

unprovenatscale,unclearregulatorytimelines,andinfrastructuregaps,

manycustomersarepostponingor

minimizingcapitalexpenditures.Asaresult,OEMsarefacinglongersalescycles,increaseddemandforflexiblefinancing,andaneedtoprovide

strongerbusinesscasesforemergingtechnologies.

Lastly,thedigitalizationofcustomer

interactionsisreshapingexpectations.Fleetmanagersnowexpectseamlessdigitaltouchpointsthroughoutthe

buyingjourney,fromonlinevehicle

configurationandpredictive

maintenanceportalstoreal-timeTCOcalculatorsandremotediagnostics.

Competitiveecosystem

Thisencapsulateshowthebroader

competitiveandservicelandscapeis

evolving.First,thethreatofnew

entrantsandcompetitivedisruptionisnolongertheoretical.Techplayers,start-

ups,andverticallyintegratedfleet

operators(e.g.,Amazon,Tesla,and

BYD)areenteringthemarketat

cheapercostswithtailor-made

solutions,orarealreadyembeddedinawiderecosystem.Theseplayerscan

undercutpricingorreframevalue

throughdataservices,uptime

guarantees,andintegratedlogistics

solutions,promptingOEMstorethinktheirdefensibility.Second,integrated

digitalandplatformservicesarefast

becomingacornerstoneof

differentiation.OEMsmustmove

beyondsellingvehiclestooffering

holisticproductivityplatforms,ofteninpartnershipwithsoftwareprovidersortelematicsspecialists.Third,in-life

servicesandpredictivemaintenanceareevolvingfromoperationaladd-onsintostrategicleversforcustomerretentionandmarginenhancement.With

electrificationreducingmechanical

complexityandmaintenanceneeds,

traditionalaftersalesrevenuestreamsareunderpressure.Instead,predictivemodelsbasedonreal-worldvehicle

dataenableproactiveservice

scheduling,reduceddowntime,and

improvedresalevalue,aligningOEMincentivesmorecloselywithcustomeroperations.

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Emergingtruckindustrytrends

07

Trendsdriving

uncertainty

Twoofthementionedtrendsaredifficulttodepict:theZETtransitionand

ownershipchanges.

2.3UncertaintyoverthetransitiontoZETsandchangesinownershipstructure

ItisbecomingclearthatmanyofthechallengesfacingtruckOEMsarenotspeculativeoroptional,butrather

inevitableshiftsthatrequirean

immediateandproactiveresponse.

OEMsthatfailtoactnowriskfalling

behindinareasthatarerapidly

becomingfoundationaltofuture

competitiveness-whetherit'sdigital

salesandserviceplatforms,software-definedvehiclearchitectures,or

resilienceagainsteconomicandsupplychainshocks.

Atthesametime,therearetwoareaswherethefutureremainssignificantlylesscertain,andwherethedirection-andespeciallythetiming-ofthe

transformationisstillopentodifferentscenarios.

Technicalcomplexity

Whilelong-termdecarbonizationis

politicallyandsociallynon-negotiable,short-tomedium-termuncertainty

remainsregardingthespeedand

structureofthistransition.Critical

infrastructureforchargingand

hydrogenrefuelingisunderdeveloped,theTCOofelectrictrucksremains

unfavorableformanyusecases,

andOEMsfacemountingcost

pressurestoscalemultiple

technologiesandplatforms

simultaneously.Politicalwillmay

fluctuatewithelectionsandeconomic

cycles,andcustomersentimentcouldremainmoreconservativethan

expected.

Ownershipstructuresandcustomerpreferences

Whilethetruck-as-a-service(TaaS)

modelisgainingmomentum-

promisingsimplifiedoperations,risk

transfer,andgreaterflexibility-it

remainsunclearwhetheritwillbecomethedominantstructureacrossall

segments.Manyfleetoperators

continuetoprioritizeownershipor

traditionalfinancingduetoadesireforcontrolovertheirassets,legacy

systems,andaccountingtreatment.Asregulatoryclarityandtechnology

performanceevolve,customer

preferencesmayshiftsignificantly

-butthedirectionandspeedofthe

shiftremainsuncertain.ForOEMs,thismeanspreparingforadualpath:

buildingcapabilitiesforusage-basedmodelswhilemaintainingstrong

supportfortraditionalownership.ThefollowingchapterswilltakeadeeperlookintohowOEMscan

strategicallyaddressthesetwokeyareasofuncertainty:

ProductcomplexitystemmingfromthetransitiontoZETsandthe

changeinownershipstructures

stemmingfromchangingcustomerpreferences.

Thisgivesusthefollowingscenarios:

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Emergingtruckindustrytrends

08

Figure2:Potentialscenariosforthetruckindustryalongtwomajoraxes

TruckasaService

1

2

VehicleOwnership

Highcomplexity&truck-Standardization&truck-

as-a-service(TaaS)as-a-service(TaaS)

Complexproduct

landscape

Technicalcomplexity

Standardized productlandscape

3

4

Highcomplexity&traditionalownership

Cash/finance

Standardization&

traditionalownership

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Emergingtruckindustrytrends

09

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

10

Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

Thetwokeyuncertaintiesaroundtheproductcomplexityandtheownershippreferences

significantlyshapethefuture

3.1.1Whattopreparefor

Allaroundtheworld,truckOEMshavecommittedtobecomingcarbonneutralinthefuture.

However,thepathtocarbonneutralityisstillopenformanyOEMs.Many

expertscalculatethatin2035,around60%ofnewtrucksaleswillbeZETs.

However,giventhecurrentgeopoliticalinstabilities,includingregulatory

adjustments,itisstillunclearhowfasttheadaptationinthecomingyearswillbe.

TheDeloitteStudyonZeroEmission

Trucks(

Link

)hasalreadyidentifiedamultitudeofhurdlesthatareyettobeovercomeforbroadadaptation.Thiswillleadtostrongvolatilityofthe

propulsionsystemmixofthenextfewyears.

TruckOEMsmustthereforemakea

decisionastohowfasttheyanticipatedifferentpropulsionsystemstocome

tomarketandtherebyformasingle

propulsionsystemagain.AsICEtruck

costshavenotrisendrasticallyinthe

pastdecade,itisaclearcostcaseof

howmuchinvestmentscanbefreedupforthedifferentdevelopmentsofa

broadsetofsystems.

Figure3:Trucksalesdevelopmentovertimeacrossthe3majormarkets1)

NorthAmerica

Europe

GreaterChina

100%100%

90%90%

80%80%

70%70%

60%60%

50%50%

56%

60%

40%40%

30%30%

22%

20%20%

22%

9%

17%

8%

10%10%

6%

12%

4%

0%0%

20202025203020352020202520302035

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

62%

40%

30%

23%

7%

20%

16%

10%

10%

0%

2020202520302035

Source:1)MonitorDeloitteZeroEmissionTrucks:Currenthurdlesandhowtoovercomethem;IHSData

ICE/other

BET

FCET

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

11

Trendclusterdeepdive-

productcomplexity

3.1.2Risingproductcomplexity

Giventhecurrentbroadproduct

portfoliosoftruckOEMs,withasetofweightandusagecategoriesinplace

fordifferentOEMs,thedevelopmentofadditionalpropulsionsystems

exacerbatesthecurrentcomplexity.

Usingtraditionaltruckplatformsfor

BEV/HEVmodelsissuboptimal,asthehigherenergydemandandlong-rangerequirementscallfordedicatedframesthatcaneffectivelyintegratelarge

batteries.

ForOEMs,thismeansthattheyhadtodevelopnewplatformsnotonlyforthe

differentusage/weightcategoriesbutalsoforthedifferentpropulsion

systems,increasingtheproduct

portfoliocomplexitydrasticallyversusthestatusquo.

Bycontrast,thecomplexityofelectricvehicledevelopmentisdecreasing

drasticallyoverthecomplexityofinternalcombustionsystems.Thismightontheotherhandleadtoabroadspectrumofcurrent

upfitters/specialistcompaniesenteringthemarketwithnewdevelopmentsofspecialpurposevehicles,putting

pressureoncurrentOEMs.

Figure4:Truckconfigurationcomplexityalongthekeydrivingcategories

Usagecategories

HEV

(Hydrogen)

new

Individualizationoptions

BET(Electric)

•Axleconfigurations(4x2,6x2,6x4,8x4)

•Frameswithupfit(Tipper/Box,etc.)

•Tractorunits

•Individualinternalconfigurations

•Colors/tires/lighting/mirrors/springs/interior

•…

(Diesel)

Long-haultrucks

Medium-haultrucks

Construction&offroadtrucks

Specialpurposetrucks

ICE

Lightduty(3.5-7.5tons)

Heavyduty(>18tons)

Mediumduty(7.5-18tons)

Weightcategories

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

12

Electricfiretruck

example

Mostfiredepartmentsaroundtheworldarecurrentlyusing

combustionengineplatformsofexistingOEMswithupfittedfiredepartmentequipment.

However,thisapproachhasbeentakeupfromadifferentanglewhenitcomestonewdevelopmentsonfiretrucks.

Thetraditionalupfitter

Rosenbauerhasalreadystartedtobuildafiretruckfullybasedonaself-developedplatform,

completelyavoidingtraditionalplatforms,providedbyOEMs.

Thisnewdevelopmentallowsforcarriageofdifferenttools,a

betterviewingangle,adeeperaccesspointtothetruckforthefiremanandotheradvantages,thataretypicallynotpossible

withtraditionalplatforms.

Anadaptationofthisnew

approachbytraditionalOEMs

wouldfurtherincreaseproductcomplexitydrastically.However,theseapproachesforspecial

purposevehiclesareontheriseandinhighdemand.

3.1.3TheOEMPerspective

Thinkingaheadinthisdevelopment,truckOEMsmayneedtogiveseriousconsiderationtotheirfurther

positioningintheecosystem.

Currently,mosttruckOEMsaroundtheworldpridethemselvesontheir

customerorientation,whichmakeseachandeverytruckhighly

customizableanddedicatedtoeachindividualneed.

Answeringthequestiononproduct

standardizationvs.ahighly

individualizedandcustomerpurpose-specificportfolioraisesfurther

questionsastofuturepositioningintheexistingupfitterlandscape.

WillexistingtruckOEMscontinueto

supplylarge-scaleupfittersforspecialpurposevehiclesorwilltheyfocustheirvehicleportfolioonnichemarketsandmoveawayfromafull-breadth

offering?Howstandardizedisthe

averageproductportfolioofOEMsgoingtobeinthefuture?Wherewilltheyinvest,andhowmuch?

3.1.4Meansofstandardization

WhileseveralOEMshavealready

adoptedmodularstrategies-suchas

unifiedcabdesignsorshared

components-trueproduct

standardizationacrosspowertrains

remainslimitedindepthand

consistency.Tomovebeyondexisting

effortsandunlockfurtherR&Dandcostefficiencies,OEMscouldconsiderthe

followingfocusedstandardizationstrategies:

Bild

1.Platformdifferentiationwith

sharedmodules:Ratherthanone-size-fits-allplatforms(e.g.,ICE+BEV+HEV),developpropulsion-specificmodularkits(e.g.,aZET-optimizedplatform)withstandardizednon-

powertrainmodules(cab,

electronics,brakingsystems)to

balanceperformanceandefficiency.

2.Cross-powertrainsoftware

backbone:Investinaunified,

cloud-basedsoftwarearchitecture

thatallowsseamlessintegrationoftelematics,diagnostics,andover-

the-airupdatesforICEandZET

vehiclesalike,future-proofingdigitalservices.

3.Customer-ledmodular

customization:Shiftfocusfrom

technicalmodularitytouse-case

drivenmodularity,enabling

customerstoconfigurebyduty

cycle(e.g.,regionalvs.urban

delivery),withOEMsstandardizingbasedonactualfleetneeds.

4.Strategicstandardization

alliances:Establishopen

modularstandards(e.g.,viajoint

venturesoralliances)acrossnon-differentiatingcomponents—suchasbatteryenclosures,cooling

systems,andtelematicshardware—loweringcostsandboosting

supplierleverage.

Alloftheabovecategoriesaresimilarlyapproachable;platformstandardizationisingeneralastrongtoolforcost

reduction,whichinitselfallowsfor

freed-upEBITpotential.However,it

alreadyrequiressubstantialinvestmentcostsitselfthatneedtobebalanced

withotherinvestmentrequirement

overall.Modularization,however,

allowsOEMstomaintaincustomer-

facingvarietywhilereducinginternal

complexity.Ultimately,customersare

notaskingforstandardizationperse,butforlowpricesandsolutionsthatmeet

theirneeds.

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

13

Trendclusterdeepdive-

ownershipshift

3.2.1TransitiontoTaaS

Asthetransitiontowardsmore

sustainablemodesoftransportevolves,sotoodoesthetechnological

uncertaintythatcomesalongwithit.

Zero-emissiontrucks(ZETs)currently

entailsignificantlyhigherupfrontcostscomparedtointernalcombustion

vehicles,drivenbybatterysystemsandlimitedeconomiesofscale.Customersareuncertainwhethertherewillbe

strongdemandforZETsinthefutureduetoresidualvaluerisk.

ZETpurchaseonlypaysoffafterseveralyearsastheyhavehighupfrontand

lowrunningcosts.Customers,however,oftendon‘twanttousetrucksforsuchalongperiod,hence,theywantto

hedgeagainsttheTCOriskthroughleasingandatruck-as-a-service

proposition.

Transferringthisrisktothetruck

industry,itbecomesclearwhythere

arefleetmanagerstryingtohedgetheriskofnewpropulsionsystemswiththeuseofdifferentusageofferings.

Tomanagebothcostandrisk

exposure,customersareincreasingly

shiftingtowardssubscriptionmodels,

pay-per-useservices,andfull-service

leasing.Thesemodelshelpmitigatetheimpactofunpredictableoperatingcostsandtechnology-specificrisks.Early

trendssuggestahigherleasingshareforZETscomparedtoICEs,asbuyersseekflexibilityandcostcertaintyamidongoingtechnologicalandregulatorychanges.

Truckasaservicevalueproposition

Flexibility

Customerscanchangevehicles

frequently,nolimitationtotheendofpreviouscontract

Convenience

Everythingincludedbesidesoffuel(e.g.insurance,maintenance,tires,…)

CapExtoOpEx

Transparent&predictablemonthly(usage-based)fixedfees

Digitalexperience

Fullydigitalprocesswithoutdownpaymentsorpaper-basedcreditchecks

Availability

Vehiclesaredeliveredwithinafewweeks,comparedtolongwaitfornewcars

TODAY’S

CUSTOMERS

TruckasaService

addressestoday’s

customers’needs

betterthan

establishedoffers

Figure5:Customer’sownershipdecisionoptionsinthefuture

Buying,financing,

financialleasingtrucks

Timeconsuming&complex

Customerhastotakeaseriesofdecisions(Whichvehicle?Whichoptions?Leasingorfinancing?

Trade-in?)

Inflexible&unpredictable

Fixedlong-termcommitmentwithunpredictablerunningcosts&

ResidualValues(especiallyforEVs)

Brandcentric

Customerislocked-inwithabrand&limitedtoitsrelatedoffering

FragmentedDigitalExperience

ofteninvolvemultiplesystemsandtouchpoints,leadingtoaless

seamlesscustomerjourneyandlimitedE2Eintegration

TheFutureoftheCommercialVehicleMarketandtheNeedforOEMstoAct|Keyuncertaintiesdrivingthefuture

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“Fleetcustomersare

lookingforinstrumentstodealwiththeTCO

uncertaintyofnewtechnologies.”

JanBakker

Deloitte

FortruckOEMsontheotherhand,thistransformationpresentsboth

opportunitiesandchallenges.While

TaaSallowsthemtoestablishrecurringrevenuestreams,italsomeanshighercapitalinvestmentrequirements,

greaterresidualvaluerisk,andan

increasedneedforpredictive

maintenanceanduptimeguarantees.

Thetransitionisfurthercomplicatedbymultipledrivetrainoptions,including

battery-electric(BEV)andfuel-cell

electric(FCEV)trucks,whichadd

complexitytofleetconfigurationsandserviceofferings.Inaddition,most

truck-as-a-serviceofferingscannotbefullyofferedthroughexisting

organizationalstructures,astheyneedcapabilitiesintheOEM'sorganizationthatmightnotyetbeavailable.

3.2.2Componentsoftruck-as-a-service

TaaSshiftsfleetownershipcostsand

responsibilitiesfromoperatorstoOEMsorthird-partyproviders.Insteadof

upfrontinvestments,customerspayonamoreregularbasis,requiringOEMstodeliverintegratedservicesforseamlessoperations.ThisshiftrequiresOEMstoofferasuiteofintegratedservices,

including:

1.Fleetfinancingandleasing:A

lease/subscriptionofferthat

includesbuy-backoptions,

increasingtheneedforstrong

resi