高盛-中国电池图表集-2025-08-新能源

MoM+2%MoM+2%Aug2025Aug202520%20%40%20%20%40%*BasedonproductionschForbatterymaterials,sampleonlyincludestop2-4players.Source:ICCSINO,Reali,CompanyData,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch3 Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24 Jul-25 Jul-21Jan-22 Jul-22Jan-23 Jul-23Jan-24 Jul-24Jan-25 Jul-25品202220222023-20241RmbRmb/KWhRmb/KWh18-Feb4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May10-Jun22-Jul5-Aug2-Sep14-Oct28-Oct9-Dec23-Dec21-Jan4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr24-Jun 22-Jul5-Aug2-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov9-DecWeekWeekly一BatteryCelO21-Jan4-Feb18-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May27-May10-Jun24-Jun 8-Jul 22-Jul 5-Aug19-Aug 2-Sep16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov 9-DecMay-21 Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22 Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23 Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24 Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25 Jul-25十儿7-Jan4-Feb18-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May27-May10-Jun24-Jun 8-Jul 22-Jul 5-Aug19-Aug 2-Sep16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov 9-Dec7-Jan21-Jan4-Feb18-Feb 4-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May27-May10-Jun24-Jun 8-Jul 22-Jul 5-Aug19-Aug 2-Sep16-Sep30-Sep28-Oct25-Nov 9-Dec23-Dec古Gldman1<1)(11,C)T1))AnodeAnodeprice-medium-endAnodeprice-high-end202220232024-2025Anodeprice-lower-end-820222023-20242025PricePricespread-AnodeAnodespread(kRmb/t)May-21May-210Spread-Highend—Spread-MediumendSpread-Lowend0.9Rmb/sqm21-Jan18-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr10-Jun24-Jun 22-Jul 19-Aug 16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov 23-Dec0.90.9Rmb/sqmRmb/sqm2022--2023一2024202518-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr10-Jun24-Jun 19-Aug 16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov2022--2023一202420252022-2023一2024202521-Jan18-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May10-Jun24-Jun 19-Aug 16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov 9-Dec23-Dec21-Jan18-Feb4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr27-May10-Jun24-Jun 22-Jul5-Aug19-Aug2-Sep16-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov9-DecatorApr-16Oct-16Apr-17Oct-17Apr-18Oct-18Apr-19Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25O台200古N500O古古Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17 Jul-17Dec-17May-18Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20Jun-20Nov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22Dec-22May-23Oct-23Mar-24Aug-24Jan-25Jun-25O7-Jan21-Jan4-Feb4-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr27-May24-Jun 8-Jul22-Jul5-Au2-Ser30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct25-Nov9-Dec23-Dec7-Jan21-Jan4-Feb18-Feb 4-Mar18-Mar 15-Apr29-Apr13-May27-May10-Jun24-Jun 8-Jul 22-Jul 5-Aug19-Aug 2-Sep16-Sep30-Sep14-Oct28-Oct11-Nov25-Nov 9-Dec23-Decldman1V1)(11,L1)(T5)1,T)O-40%-40%Jan-24 --Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23 Oct-23Apr-24Apr-25Jul-25Apr-20Jul-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Jul-23Apr-24Apr-25Jul-25DomesticInstallation-BYD(DomesticInstallation-BYD(GWh)MoMGrowth(%) 4040—2428%22%-5%-1%5%食o9g91010911-47%0158-6%204May-23May-23May-23May-23Mar-254048%32%30%26%070%16怡9%15%18%9V07-40%-49%20%272820MoMGrowth(%)320%240%MoMGrowth(%)320%240%60-233%240200-14%240200-14%-7%0Sep-23Mar-25May-2534%26%30%28%29%24%26%26%25%26%25%25%24%23%23%24%40%48%46%42%45%45%49%49%46%47%48%44%Jan-24Sep-2446%46%4446%48%AstheendofJun2025.Source:IJan-21Apr-21Jan-21Apr-21Oct-24Apr-25Jan-Jul-24一ktBTRShanshanXingchengKaijin-11%ZhengtuoShangtaiJinmei-11%XinmaoJincanYulingAstheendofJun2025.Source:Reali,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchJan-19Jan-19WetSeparatorCompanyJun-24May-25Jun-25YoY%SeniorTechCompanyJun-24May-25Jun-25YoY%SeniorTechZIMTHuiqiangCangzhouMingzhlJan-25Jan-25MoM%-3%MoM%-3%42%641.0645.091.0787.0585.0640.064.0SeniorTechYunnanEnergySinomaGellecCangzhouMingzhuLiaoyuanHongtuPutailaiHoushengLanketuBeixingMalionKanghuiAstheendofJun2025.Source:Reali,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch12ExportVolume-NCMCathode(kt)YoYGrowth(%)200%ExportVolume-NCMCathode(kt)YoYGrowth(%)200%-100%一YoYGrowth(RHS)24068May-25Mar-2340030040%2000ExportUnitPrice-NCMCathode(kUSD/t)YoYExportUnitPrice-NCMCathode(kUSD/t)YoYGrowth(%)60504060%3020-20%0-100%ExportUnitPrice→—YoYGrowth(RHS)ay-21ay-213025-10%20-20%ExportUnitPrice一—YoYGrowth(RHS)AstheendofJun2025.Source:ChinaCustoms,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch14Li-ionBattery249.9436.01,209.32,087.2LithiumCobaltOxide-4%-14%-20%NCM48.7NCMPrecursor-57%-5%-56%LFP855%ArtificialGraphite45.8-2%289.1276.9-4%NaturalGraphite-33%-39%AquamiformNaturalGraphite-28%-39%41.2-43%-46%Polyethylene-8%Polypropylene-16%LiPF6-14%-5%ExportUnitPriceLi-ionBattery-26%-5%-27%LithiumCobaltOxide-19%NCM-9%-19%NCMPrecursor-6%-8%LFP-26%-35%ArtificialGraphite-27%-10%-21%NaturalGraphite-1%-9%AquamiformNaturalGraphite-21%-1%Polyethylene-2%-10%Polypropylene-24%LiPF6AstheendofJun2025.Source:ChinaCustoms,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchJun2025Jun2025MoMJun2025YoY1H2025YoY·Chinaarethepredominantsourcesofglobalbatterysupply,representing70%ofglobalproductionasof1H25·In1H2025,batteryexportsaccountedforabout18%ofChinabatteryoutputaccordingtoCABIA,makingexportmomentumcriticaltoChinabatterySDdyna·WecrosscheckexportdatawiththeofficialimportdatafromUS/Europe.·Chinasupplyover90%ofEurope'sbatteryimports,ChinabatteryexportservChinasupplyover80%oftheUSbatteryimports,effectivelyreflectingtheBESSdemandmomen·Monitoringemergingdemandfromunnoticedregions,forexamplefromMiddleEast,Chile,andAustralia.Volume*ExportVolume*MoM(%)YoY(%)As%ofChinaExportMoM(chg.)YoY(chg.)As%ofChinaMoM(chg.)YoY(chg.)Jun-25Europe-3%46%-7%l-6%NorthAmerica7-3%RoWD%US780%-3%SaudiArabia4331%Germany4-16%-5%-5%Chile2773%3988%Netherlands20%I-1%249%-1%-1%Australia1-12%506%-1%P%SouthKorea1-15%-3%Vietnam1-16%-3%%Hungary1211%%TotalN.A.N.A.2025YtdEurope61%-2%-1%NorthAmerica46548%-4%-1%88342%US45149%-3%-1%Germany-2%-1%SaudiArabia811%Netherlands98Vietnam6-2%Australia6234%SouthKorea5-12%-3%-1%UK545%-1%Japan3-1%TotalN.A.-1%WeestimateexportvolumeinGWhthroughusingconversionfactorof85Wh/kgonexportvolumeinkt.*Incl.consumerbatteryandESSsystem;^DirectexportofEVandESSbatteryonly.AstheendofJun2025.Source:ChinaCustoms,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchAtcurrentcapexlevels,weestimate300G~400GWhofbatteryandupstreamcomponentcapacityisaddedeachyearGlobalInvestmentResearch16Oursamplelistcoscover75%ofChinacathodeandAnodeproduction,90%ofseparatorandelectrolyteproductionand70%ofbatteryproductionSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch16StockTickerMarketCapCurrencyLastcloseGSTFGSRatingUpside/DownsPerformanceVolumeTradingValueCATL-A300750.SZBuyCATL-HHKD415.8436.0NeutralGotion002074.SZBuyEVEEnergy300014.SZNeutral42,3234,534HKDNeutralFarasis688567.SSHyperstrong688411.SSBuy4,104HunanYuneng301358.SZBuySeniorTechnology300568.SZBuyYunnanEnergy002812.SZ4,218BuyPutailai603659.SSNeutralDynanonic300769.SZNeutralTinciMaterial002709.SZZhenhua688707.SS4,873We,EricShenandQiyingWei,CFA,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreportUnlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs'GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.TheGoldmanSachsFactorProfileprovidesinvestmentcontextforastockbycomparingkeyattributestothemarket(i.e.ouruniverseofratedstocks)anditssectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)andIntegrated(acompositeofGrowth,FinancialReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalculatedbyusingnormalizedranksforspecificmetricsforeachstock.Thenormalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetricmayvarydependingonthefiscalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:Growthisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(forfinancialstocks,onlyEPSandsalesgrowth),withahigherpercentileindicatingahighergrowthcompany.FinancialReturnsisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingROE,ROCEandCROCl(forfinancialstocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigherfinancialreturns.Multipleisbasedonastock'sforward-lookingP/E,P/B,price/dividend(P/D),EV/EBITDA,EV/FCFandEV/DebtAdjustedCashFlow(DACF)(forfinancialstocks,onlyP/E,P/BandP/D),withahigherpercentileindicatingastocktradingatahighermultiple.TheIntegratedpercentileiscalculatedastheaverageoftheGrowthpercentile,FinancialReturnspercentileand(100%-Multiplepercentile)FinancialReturnsandMultipleusetheGoldmanSachsanalystforecastsatthefiscalyear-endatleastthreequartersinthefuture.Growthusesinputsforthefiscalyearatleastsevenquartersinthefuturecomparedwiththeyearatleastthreequartersinthefuture(onaper-sharebasisforallmetrics).ForamoredetaileddescriptionofhowwecalculatetheGSFactorProfile,pleasecontactyourGSrepresentative.Acrossourglobalcoverage,weexaminestocksusinganM&Aframework,consideringbothqualitativefactorsandquantitativefactors(whichmayvaryacrosssectorsandregions)toincorporatethepotentialthatcertaincompaniescouldbeacquired.WethenassignaM&Arankasameansofscoringcompaniesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3,with1representinghigh(30%-50%)probabilityofthecompanybecominganacquisitiontarget,2representingmedium(15%-30%)probabilityand3representinglow(0%-15%)probability.Forcompaniesranked1or2,inlinewithourstandarddepartmentalguidelinesweincorporateanM&Acomponentintoourtargetprice.M&Arankof3isconsideredimmaterialandthereforedoesnotfactorintoourpricetarget,andmayormaynotbediscussedinresearch.QuantumisGoldmanSachs'proprietarydatabaseprovidingaccesstodetailedfinancialstatementhistories,forecastsandratios.Itcanbeusedforin-depthanalysisofasinglecompany,ortomakecomparisonsbetweencompaniesindifferentsectorsandmarkets.GoldmanSachsInvestmentResearchglobalEquitycoverageuniverseBuyHoldSell49%BuyHoldSell40%AsofJuly1,2025,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchhadinvestmentratingson2,968equitysecurities.GoldmanSachsassignsstocksasBuysandSellsonvariousregionalInvestmentLists;stocksnotsoassignedaredeemedNeutral.SuchassignmentsequatetoBuy,HoldandSellforthepurposesoftheabovedisclosurerequiredbytheFINRARules.See'Ratings,Coverageuniverseandrelateddefinitions'below.TheInvestmentBankingRelationshipschartreflectsthepercentageofsubjectcompanieswithineachratingcategoryforwhomGoldmanSachshasprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevioustwelvemonthsSeecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasaprincipalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst'sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst'sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFIRule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.Distributionofratings:Seethedistributionofratingsdisclosureabove.Pricechart:Seethepricechart,withchangesofratingsandpricetargetsinpriorperiods,above,or,ifelectronicformatorifwithrespecttomultiplecompanieswhicharethesubjectofthisreport,ontheGoldmanSachswebsiteat/research/hedge.html.Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedintheBankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor"wholesaleclients"withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Inproducingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient'sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient'sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs'AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersofsecuritiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunderapplicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldmanSachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:FurtherinformationonthesecuritiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,ResearchAnalyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchreportInvestmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeinvesting.RegistrationgrantedbySEBlandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedcomplianceofficerandinvestorgrievancecontactdetailscanbefoundatthislink:/disclosures/hedge.html-/general/equity.JaL.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither"registeredbanks"nor"deposittakers"(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonotprovideappraisalwwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancialcircumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreportSingapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthisresearchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,areavailablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequestEuropeanandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationisimplementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom'sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEco