2025年东亚的工业脱碳：能源、金融、技术和就业的转型报告（英文版）-世界银行

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ENERGYTECHNOLOGY

FINANCE

PartoftheWorldBankReport

GreenHorizon:EastAsia’sSustainableFuture

INDUSTRIALEXECUTIVESUMMARY

DECARBONIZATIONINEASTASIA

TRANSFORMING ENERGY,FINANCE,TECHNOLOGY,ANDJOBS

JOBS

WORLDBANKGROUP

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Contents

1

3

5

8

10

10

11

12

13

Acknowledgments

Importance┃Transforming40percentofglobalindustrialoutputforsustainablegrowthandtheenergytransition

Methodology┃Unpackingindustrialdecarbonizationstrategiesandglobalbestpractices

TechnicalPathways┃Decarbonizationpotential,cost-effectivenessandtrade-offs

Pillar1┃Superchargingenergyandmaterialefficiency

Pillar2┃Scalingupelectrificationwithrenewableenergy

Pillar3┃UnlockingCCUSforhard-to-abateemissionsinspecificsubsectors

Pillar4┃ClosingthegapwithgreenhydrogenandcleanfeedstocksElectricitypriceandcarbonpricingtrade-offs

IVIndustrialDecarbonizationinEastAsia

15

15

17

19

19

20

22

26

29

32

35

37

ImplementationChallenges┃Energy,finance,technology,andjobs

Energy:Sufficientandcost-competitivecleanpower

Finance:Adequateandfit-for-purpose

Technology:Commerciallyviableandlocallyavailable

Jobs:Askilledandrobustworkforce

ThePolicyPackage

Enablingtheenergyfoundation

Enablingthefinancefoundation

Enablingthetechnologyfoundation

Enablingthejobsfoundation

TheWorldBankPlaybook┃Operationalizingcountryandregionalactions

References

TransformingEnergy,Finance,Technology,andJobs1

Acknowledgments

TheresearchprojectwasledbyacoreWorldBankteamcomprisingYugeMa(SeniorEnergySpecialist)andPriyankLathwal(EnergySpecialist),withsupportfromLauraAichelburg(JuniorProfessionalOfficer),InchulHwang(SeniorEnergySpecialist),YiYao(InfrastructureSpecialist),andAnhHoangLe(Consultant).

Thetechnicalmodelingandreportwereco-producedbyEnergyInnovation:PolicyandTechnol-ogyLLC(EI)andothertechnicalpartners.ContributingauthorsfromEI(inorder)include—JeffreyRissman,SonaliDeshpandeandNikSawe.

TheexecutivesummarywaspreparedbyYugeMa,PriyankLathwal,andLauraAichelburgwithinputfromDolfGielen(SeniorEnergyEconomist)andEI.TheinternationalcasestudieswerewrittenbyYugeMa,LauraAichelburg,DolfGielen,PriyankLathwalandothertechnicalpartners.TheWorkforcesectionofthepolicyrecommendationchapterwaswrittenbySalmanAsim(SeniorEconomist).Theindustrialdemand-sideresourcesappendixwascontributedbyDavidKathan(Consultant).TheindustrialheatpumpsappendixwaswrittenbyCeciliaSpringer(Consultant).

SpecialthankstoInstituteforGlobalDecarbonizationProgress(iGDP)colleagues,includingMinHu(Director)andJialingHong(SeniorAnalyst)fortheirsupporttotheresearchandprojectman-agement.GratitudealsoextendstoLundUniversityresearchcollaborators,includingLarsNilsson(Professor),MaxÅhman(AssociateProfessor),JonasAlgers(PhDcandidate)andZhenxiLi(PhD)fortheircontributionstothecasestudyonSweden’sGreenIndustrialHub.

ThereportbenefitedfromstrategicguidancefromWorldBankleadershipincludingSudeshnaGhoshBanerjee(RegionalDirector),JieTang(PracticeManager),ClaudiaInesVasquezSuarez(PracticeManager),XiaodongWang(LeadEnergySpecialist)andZayraRomo(LeadEnergySpe-cialist).TechnicalinputandthoroughpeerreviewwereprovidedbyWorldBankstaffincludingDolfGielen,JasSingh(LeadEnergySpecialist),JackieJiang(SeniorPublicPrivatePartnershipsSpecialist),MeganMeyer(SeniorEnergySpecialist),KabirMalik(SeniorEnergyEconomist),ChiaraOdettaRogate(SeniorEnergySpecialist),ThiBaChu(SeniorEnergySpecialist),BipulSingh(SeniorEnergySpecialist),AnastasiyaDenisova(SeniorEconomist)andCongyiDai(Intern).

GraphicandlayoutdesignwasprovidedbyKevinKunyuSun.DatavisualizationwassupportedbyWesleyGrubbs.EditingsupportwasprovidedbyStevenKennedyandStephenSpector.

GenerousfundingsupportwasprovidedbytheWorldBankKoreaOfficeTrustFund.

Thisreportisthefirsttosystematicallyaddressthecomplexchallengeofindustrialdecarbonization

inEastAsia,oneoftheworld’smostdynamic

economicareas.Drawingonoriginaldataandin-

depthassessmentsofthreekeyeconomies—China,Indonesia,andVietNam—thereportidentifies

viabletechnicalpathways,unveilsimplementationchallenges,andoffersacomprehensivepolicy

packagetoacceleratethetransitiontonet-zeroindustry.

TransformingEnergy,Finance,Technology,andJobs3

Importance┃Transforming40

percentofglobalindustrialoutputforsustainablegrowthandtheenergy

transition

Thepowerhouseofglobaleconomicgrowth,EastAsiaisanchoredbyadynamic

industrialsectorthatcontributes38percentofregionalGDPandemploysnearlyathirdofitsworkforce(WorldBank2025b).

Theregion’sindustriesarediverseandstrategicallysignificant:Chinaleadsinheavyindustries,accountingformorethan50percentofglobalsteel,cement,aluminum,copper,andnickelpro-duction;Indonesiaanchorsresource-basedsectorsandpetrochemicals;andVietNamisrapidlyexpandingitslightmanufacturingandelectronicsexports.Beyondthenearly300milliondirectjobsitprovides,industrygenerateswidespreadindirectemploymentbyfuelingdemandalongthevaluechain—fromenergyproductionandconstructiontofinance,engineering,anddigitalservices.

Theregionconsumes40percentofglobalprimaryenergy,emits40percentofglobalgreenhousegases,andremainsheavilydependentonfossilfuelsforindustrialenergyuse(Ritchieetal.2024).

In2022,theindustrialsectoraccountedforthelargestshareoffinalenergyuseinChina(47percent),Indonesia(44percent),andVietNam(51percent).Coal,relatedbyproductsandfossilfeedstocksdominateindustrialenergyuse—47percentinChina,57percentinIndonesia,and61percentinVietNam.Fossilfuelsharesriseto71,66,and70percent,respectively,whenpetro-leumandnaturalgasareincluded(FIGUREES.1)(NBS2024,MEMR2024,VNEEP2024,andVSA2024).Asaresult,thesecountries’industrialemissions,asashareoftheirtotalenergy-relatedemissions,farexceedtheglobalaverage:industrycontributes26percentofenergy-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsinChina,24percentinIndonesia,and31percentinVietNam,versus18percentglobally.Addingemissionsfromelectricityconsumedbyindustries,thesharerisesto65,48,and57percentinChina,Indonesia,andVietNamrespectively,versusaworldaverageof30percent(IEA2023c).

4IndustrialDecarbonizationinEastAsia

FIGUREES.1IndustrialsectorenergyusebyfuelforChina,Indonesia,andVietNamshowsfossilfueldependence

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

■■■

FossilFeedstocksCoalandRelatedByproductsPetroleum

■■■■

NaturalGasBioenergyandWastePurchasedHeatElectricity

Industrialdecarbonizationpresentsastrategicopportunitytoacceleratetheenergytransition,boosteconomiccompetitiveness,andcreatequalityjobsacrosstheEastAsianregion.

Fordevelopingeconomies,industrialdecarbonizationdeliversatripledividend:greaterproduc-tivitythroughenergyandmaterialefficiency,increasedinvestmentandgreenjobcreation,andimprovedpublichealthandsocialwelfarefromreducedairpollutionandanenhancedworkenvi-ronment.Byshiftingtocleanenergyandmodernindustrialprocesses,countriesintheregioncanmeettheirnet-zerotargets(i.e.,2060forChinaandIndonesia,2050forVietNam),avoidlockingincarbon-intensiveinfrastructure,andgaincompetitivenessinanincreasinglycarbon-consciousglobalmarket.

Decarbonizingindustryremainsacriticalyetoverlookedcomponentintheenergytransition.

Thecarbon-andenergy-intensiveindustrialsectorhasmadelimitedprogressandreceivesjust1.4percentofglobalclimatefinance(Naranetal.2024).Whilepowerandtransportdominatedecarbonizationpolicypriorities,theindustrialsector,especiallyindevelopingcountries,remainslargelyneglected.Onekeyreasonforthispolicygapisthesector’sinherentcomplexity,itsdeepinterlinkageswithotherareasoftheeconomy,anditscontributiontoeconomiccompetitiveness.Practicalchallengescompoundthisgap,includingthehighcostofcleanenergy,gridconstraintsonrenewabledeployment,lowreadinessofemergingtechnologies,andshortagesofskilledlabor.Withouttargetedattention,thissectorcouldbecometheweaklinkinachievingnationalandglobaldecarbonizationgoals.

TransformingEnergy,Finance,Technology,andJobs5

Methodology┃Unpackingindustrialdecarbonizationstrategiesandglobalbestpractices

Thisreportemploysamixed-methodsapproachcombiningtechnicalmodeling,casestudies,andstakeholderconsultation.

Itintegratesbottom-upquantitativemodelingwithfiveinternationalcasestudiestoidentifytechnicalpathwaysandpolicyrecommendationsforindustrialdecarbonizationinChina,Indo-nesia,andVietNam.Inaddition,stakeholderconsultationsinstudiedcountrieswereconductedforcontextualization.Together,thethreecountriesaccountfor85percentofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsfromtheAsia-Pacificindustrialsector.Theirdistinctindustrialprofilesandenergysystemcharacteristicsofferacompellingcaseforadvancingindustrialdecarbonization—bothwithintheregionandglobally.

Giventhecomplexityofindustrialdecarbonization,sixtiersoftechnicalstrategiesweredefinedtoclarifyhowlimitedresourcescandeliverthegreatestimpact.

Thesetechnicalstrategiesarerankedbasedoncost-effectivenessandtechnologicalreadiness.AsshowninTABLEES.1,lower-numberedtiersincludethemostmatureandaffordableinter-ventions,whilehigher-numberedtiersfeaturemore-expensiveandless-developedsolutions.Eachtierrepresentsadistinct,nonoverlappingsetofmeasuresthatcancumulativelycut95–97percentofeachcountry,sindustrialemissions.TheseincludedirectCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionatindustrialfacilities,processCO2emissionsfromcementproduction,andfugitivemethane(CH4)emissionsassociatedwiththeextractionoffossilfuelspurchasedbyindustry.Themodelingscopeislimitedtotheindustrialsector,withtheassumptionthatthepowersectorwillachievefulldecarbonizationinlinewiththecountries’net-zerotargets.

6IndustrialDecarbonizationinEastAsia

TABLEES.1TheSix-TierApproach:Strategiesforindustrialdecarbonizationbasedoncost-effectivenessandtechnologicalreadiness

Targetedindustrialsubsectors

Energyefficiency,material

efficiency,and

productlongevity

TiersStrategiesInterventions

Tier1

Keyprocesses

andcross-cutting

systems(process

heating,steam,

motors,pumps,

fans,etc.)acrossallindustrialsubsectors

•Improvingthermalandelectricalenergyefficiency(e.g.,wasteheatrecovery,energymanagementsystems,

energy-efficientequipment)

•Material-savingproductdesignandmanufacturingtechnologies(e.g.,netshapemanufacturing,fewerprocesssteps)

Foodandbeverage,textiles,pulpand

paper,andironandsteel

Alsotargetsmotor

andsteamsystemsusedacrossmost

industrialsubsectors

•Designingproductsandbuildingsforlongevityandmaintenance

Tier2a

Easy

electrification:

electrification

ofnonthermal

processes,low-

temperature

heating,andscrap-basedsteelmaking

•Replacingdieselengineswithelectricmotors

•Replacingfossil-fueledboilerswithindustrialheat

pumpsforlow-temperature(<150°C)industrialheating

•Switchingaportionofprimarysteelmakingbasedonblastfurnace-basicoxygenfurnace(BF-BOF)tosecondaryscrap-basedsteelmakinginelectricarcfurnaces(scrap-EAF)

Tier2b

Chemicals,refining,nonferrousmetals,nonmetallic

minerals,and

manufacturingofmachineryandequipment

Other

electrification:

electrification

ofmedium-to-

high-temperatureprocessheating

•Replacingfossil-fueledboilerswithelectricboilersandthermalbatteries

•Replacingfossil-fueledfurnaces,kilns,andotherheatingequipmentwithelectrifiedreplacements(suchas

electricresistanceheating,inductionheating,electricarcs/plasmatorches,dielectricheating,andinfraredheating)

Tier3Carboncapture,

utilizationandstorage(CCUS)

•Amine-basedCO2capture

•Oxy-fuelcombustionCO2capture

•DirectcaptureofprocessCO2emissionsfromcement-making

•Retrofittingaportionofblastfurnaces(BF-BOF)withCCUS

Ironandsteel,

chemicals,refining,andnonmetallic

minerals(glass,cement)

•CO2transportanduseorsequestration

Nonmetallic

minerals(cement,lime,etc.),ironandsteel

Tier4a

Green

hydrogen(H2)

•TransitioningaportionofprimarysteelproductionfromtheBF-BOFroutetothegreenhydrogen–baseddirectreducediron-electricarcfurnace(H2-DRI-EAF)method

•Replacingfossilfuelcombustionwithgreenhydrogeninhigh-temperatureprocesseswhereelectrifiedoptionsaretechnologicallyimmature

•Replacingfossilfuelcombustionwithgreenhydrogeninsubsectorsthatalreadyusehydrogenforother

purposes

Tier4bCleanfeedstocks•Replacingfossilfuelsusedaschemicalfeedstocks(e.g.,

coal,naturalgas,andpetroleum)withcleanfeedstocks

(greenH2,blueH2,bioenergy)

Ammonia,methanol,olefins,aromatics

(usedinfertilizers,plastics)

TransformingEnergy,Finance,Technology,andJobs7

Themodelingincorporatesanticipatedtechnologicalandfinancialdevelopmentsthatcanbeappliedunderthepolicyrecommendationsprovidedinthisreport.

Themodelingassumptionsincludeasubstantialreductioninthecostofcleanhydrogen,1withgreenhydrogenreaching$1.80/kilogram(kg)inChina,$3.50/kginIndonesia,and$2.17/kginVietNamby2050,respectively.2Italsoincorporatesacarbonpricethatincreasesfrompres-ent-dayvaluesto$50/tonneCO2by2050,3whichrepresentsthecombinedeffectsofdirectcarbonpricingsuchascarbonmarketsandcarbontaxes,aswellasindirectcarbonpricing,suchaswithdrawingexistingfossilfuelsubsidiesandaccountingforthesocialcostofcarbon.4Thesemodelingassumptionsaffectthecost-effectivenessofthetechnologicalinterventions.ThefulllistoftechnicalmodelassumptionsispresentedinAppendixD.

Fiveglobalcasestudieswereanalyzedtoassesstheenablingpoliciesandsupportframeworksbehindsuccessfulindustrialdecarbonizationinitiativesacrossmajorenergy-intensivesectors.

Thecasescoversteel,cement,chemicals,andindustrialparks—inbothdevelopedanddevelop-ingcountries.Thecasesillustratekeytechnicalpathwaysinthesesectors:steelmakingpoweredbyrenewableenergy(RE)inIndia,greenhydrogeninSwedenandSaudiArabia,carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)inNorway,andrenewableintegrationinChina’sindustrialparks.Acommonframeworkwasusedtoexaminepolicy,financing,institutionalcoordination,andinfrastructurereadinessinvariouscontexts.

1“Cleanhydrogen”includeshydrogenproducedfromfossilfuelscoupledwithcarbondioxidecaptureandstorage(combustionbased)or

carbonstorage(pyrolysisbased).Thesearealsoknownas“low-carbonhydrogen”or“bluehydrogen.”Hydrogenproducedfromwater

electrolysisusingrenewableelectricityorfrombiomassisknownas“renewablehydrogen”or“greenhydrogen.”“Conventionalhydrogen”or“grayhydrogen”referstofossilfuel-basedproductionwithoutcarbondioxidecaptureandstorage.

2Theestimated2050greenhydrogencostforChinaisfromErofeev(2025)citingthelatestestimatefromBloombergNEF.Theestimated2050greenhydrogencostof2050forVietnamisfromUNDP(2023),Tuyen(2024),andERIA(2024);andthe2050greenhydrogencostofIndonesiaarefromERIA(2024)andBloombergNEF(2023).

3Inthisreport,“$"signifiesU.S.dollarsunlessotherwisespecifiedandthat"tonne"signifies"metricton".

4Wedefine“presentday”carbonpricesbasedonprevailingcarbonmarketlevelsin20232024,particularlyinEastAsia,whichremainwell

belowglobalpolicy-guidedshadowpricelevels:in2024-2025,carbonpricinginChinaisaround$13/tonneCO2,andabout$2/tonneCO2in

Indonesia,andaround$5/tonneCO2inVietnam(voluntarymarkets).The$50/tonnecapwasselectedtoreflectthismarketrealityandprovideaconservativebenchmarkforassessingnear-terminvestmentcompetitiveness.WenotethattheWorldBanksShadowPriceofCarbon(SPC),recommendedforprojecteconomicappraisal,isdistinctfromprevailingormarketcarbonpricesandalsofromtheSocialCostofCarbon(SCC),whichestimatestheexternaldamagesfromemissions.AsnotedintheWorldBanks2024SPCGuidancenote,theSPCintherangeof$4080pertonneofCO2ein2020,risingto$50100pertonneofCO2eby2030,isbasedonareviewcarriedoutbytheHigh-LevelCommissionon

CarbonPricesandassumesasupportiveglobalpolicyenvironment.SincemanyEastAsiancountriesdonotyethavestrongcarbonpricingframeworksorenablingconditions,ouruseofa$50/tonnecapreflectsarealisticupperboundforshort-tomedium-termdecision-makingintheregionalcontext.

8IndustrialDecarbonizationinEastAsia

TechnicalPathways┃Decarbonizationpotential,cost-effectivenessand

trade-offs

Themodelingrevealedcommontechnicalpathwaystoreachnet-zeroindustrialemissionsinallthreecountries,evenafterconsideringcountry-specificindustrialstructures,economicscales,anddevelopmentstages.

Withinthispathway,thesixtiersaregroupedintofourpillarsofindustrialabatementforChina,Indonesia,andVietNam(FIGUREES.2):(1)energyandmaterialefficiency;(2)electrificationwithrenewableenergy;(3)carboncapture,use,andstorage(CCUS);and(4)greenhydrogenandcleanfeedstocks.Thissectionexplainstheabatementpotential,abatementcost,andfocussubsectorsofeachtechnicalpillarbasedonmodelingresults.

FIGUREES.2Industrydecarbonizationtechnicalpathways:AbatementpotentialandabatementcostpertonneofCO2

CHINA

AnnualCO2EmissionsAnnualizedAbatementCost

6,000MtCO2-+

2022Actual

5,608↓348

Pillar1

Tier1Efficiency

Pillar2

Tier2aEasyElectrificationTier2bOtherElectrification

Pillar3

Tier3CCUS

Future

BAU

Projection

Pillar4

Tier4aGreenHydrogen

Tier4bCleanFeedstocks

↓1,905

↓1,270↓412

↓598

↓592

↓310

0

Mt=milliontonnes-200-1000100200USD/tCO2

■■■■■■■■■■■■■

IndustrialSectorTotalAbatementPotentialEnergyCapEx

TransformingEnergy,Finance,Technology,andJobs9

INDONESIAAnnualCO2EmissionsAnnualizedAbatementCost

↑153

↓98Tier1Efficiency

Pillar2

220

↓129Tier2aEasyElectrification

↓67Tier2bOtherElectrification

Pillar3

↓43Tier3CCUS

↓19Tier4aGreenHydrogen↓4Tier4bCleanFeedstocks

Pillar1

400MtCO2-+

0

Future BAUProjection

2022Actual

Pillar4

Mt=milliontonnes-200-1000100200300USD/tCO2

■■■■■■■■■■■■■

IndustrialSectorTotalAbatementPotentialEnergyCapEx

VIETNAMAnnualCO2EmissionsAnnualizedAbatementCost

+

Pillar1

400MtCO2-

Future↑183

2022209↓98Tier2aEasyElectrification

Pillar2

Pillar3

Pillar4

BAU

Projection

↓112Tier1Efficiency

Actual

↓62Tier2bOtherElectrification

↓75Tier3CCUS ↓13Tier4aGreenHydrogen

↓11Tier4bCleanFeedstocks

0

Mt=milliontonnes-200-1000100200300USD/tCO2

■■■■■■■■■■■■■

IndustrialSectorTotalAbatementPotentialEnergyCapEx

10IndustrialDecarbonizationinEastAsia

Pillar1Superchargingenergyandmaterialefficiency(Tier1)

Thelargestemissionsreductionpotentialcomesfromimprovingenergyefficiency,materialefficiency,andproductlongevity—strategiesapplicableacrossallsubindustries.Theyrepre-sentthemostpractical,cost-effective,andscalableapproachandarethereforeano-regretssolu-tionforallcountries.Evenifthepowersectorfailstodecarbonize,theCO2reductionpotentialfromtheseefficiencymeasuresremainslargelyunchangedbecausesuchmeasurescanreduceenergydemand,materialdemand,orboth.

Abatementpotential:Pillar1abates36percentofindustrialCO2emissionsinChina,26percentinIndonesia,and29percentinVietNamthroughefficiencymeasuresalone(FIGUREES.2).Energyefficiencyisthemostimportantstrategy,withthepotentialtored