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StateofIndustrialGoodsNorthAmerica

Non-RoadEquipment

NEWRULLES

FORTHE

NEEXTHORIZON

2025

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20252

01

P.3Overview

02

P.4ExecutiveSummary

05

P.13ChallengesAnd

FocusPriorities

06

P.17FundamentalChangesOnTheHorizon

03

P.5IndustrySentiment

04

P.9TariffsAndSupplyChain

07

P.36Conclusion

08

P.38Methodology

CONTENTS

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20253

01

OVERVIEW

Afterayearslongperiodofrelativeprosperityand

confidence,thealwayscyclicalNorthAmerican

industrialgoodssectorhashitadownturn.Wherelastyearexecutiveswespokewithgavealargelypositiveassessmentoftheirposition,in2025theeffectsof

continuedgeopoliticalturmoilandarapidlychangingtarifflandscapehavesouredtheiroutlook.

Theheighteneduncertaintyalsohasfurtheredthe

trendwesawinourpreviousreportofindustrials

goingbacktothebasics.Increasingly,they’returningawayfrominitiativesthatinthisenvironmentmightcarrygreaterriskorcomplexity,focusinginsteadonthecoreissuesoftheirbusiness.Formany,executingthatshiftsuccessfullywillbecriticaltoovercomingthemanythreatstheynowface.

Ofcourse,industrialgoodsisincrediblybroadand

varied,comprisingnumeroussubsectorsthatareeachcontendingwiththeirownuniquesetofissues.ThisyearwepartneredwiththeAssociationofEquipmentManufacturerstotakeadeepdiveintoagriculture

andconstruction,interviewingexecutives,surveyingAEMmembers,andanalyzingmorethan1,000publiccompaniesworldwide.It’sarichpictureoftwofieldsthatarefeelingthepainatthispointintheindustrycycle,whileatthesametimeseeingplentyofreasonsforoptimismaboutthefuture.

Readonforallthevitaldataandinsights,aswellastellinginformationaboutthebroaderindustry.

Wehopeyouenjoythereport.

©OliverWyman

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20254

02

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Sentimentdecline:Evenforanindustryconstantlygoingthroughcycles,thecurrentdownturnhasbeenfastanddeep.Onascaleof1to10,executiveson

averagegaveindustrials’currentconditionarating

of5.7,downfrom8lastyear.Sentimentwas

especiallylowinagriculture,whichisexperiencing

meaningfulrevenuedeclines.Lookingacrosssectors,OEMsgenerallyhaveamorepositiveviewthan

componentsuppliers.

Tariffsbecomeadistraction:Inoursurveyand

interviews,68%ofcompaniessaidtariffshaveimpactedtheirstrategymoderatelyormore.Theconstantneedtograpplewiththedisruptionhascausedshort-term

planningtodominatestrategicagendasandcreateda“tariffmyopia”thatreducesbandwidthforinnovationandlonger-terminvestmentstrategies.

Doublingdownoncoreelements:Ashighinterest

rates,inflation,andothereconomicfactorsthreatentheirbottomlines,organizationsarefurtherincreasingfocusoncoreproducts,operations,andcustomer

experience.They’recontinuingtoprioritizegrowthagendasaspartofthisback-to-basicsapproach,

relyingonrevenuefromfundamentalbusinesslineswhilealsoadaptingtothemarket.

Changesonthehorizon:Allalongthevaluechain,thelong-relied-onfundamentalsofindustrials’businessareinastateofflux:

•Traditionaldealersarebeingchallengedbyupstartandexperimentaldistributionchannels

•Customersegmentsaresplittingbetweenlargeconsolidatorsandsmalloperators

•Laborshortagesandskillsgapsarebecoming

abottleneck,whilealsoservingasacatalystfor

vocationalpartnershipsandproductivity-enhancingtechnologysolutions

•Adoptionofdigitaltoolsfore-commerce,fieldservice,andotherapplicationsisgrowing

•OEMsareshiftingtowardresilientstrategiescenteredaroundtheircoreproducts

•TensionsarebuildingbetweenOEMsandsuppliersovertheresponsibilityforleadingandpaying

forinnovation

Understandingthesechangeswillenableany

industrialsbusiness—bigorsmall,OEMorsupplier,agriculture-orconstruction-focused—tocraftand

deploythetacticsnecessaryforsuccessinthemarket.

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20255

03

INDUSTRYSENTIMENT

Thecoreoff-highwaymarket—comprising

machineryandequipmentuseddirectlyinsectors

likeagriculture,construction,mining,andforestry

—representsasubstantialbutconcentrated

opportunity.Forexample,agriculture’sdirectTotalAddressableMarket(TAM)is$58billioninequipmentspend;however,whenthelensisexpandedto

includethebroaderecosystem(primaryagricultureplusfoodandbeverageprocessors,foodretailersandwholesalers,foodserviceproviders,andinputandservicesuppliers),thatsinglesectortouchesanexpandedTAMofapproximately$1.7trillion.For

theconstructionsector,theTAMcanbeexpandedevenmore,from$66billionto$4trillion(Exhibit1).Inotherwords,off-highwayequipmentisnotjustpoweringfarmsandworksites—itisanenablinglayerforafarlargervaluechainandeconomy.

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20256

©OliverWyman

Exhibit1:NorthAmericanoff-highwayequipmentmarket

TotalEquipmentMarket

Equipment,aftermarketsold,servicesold,softwaresold

$224billion

Construction

$66billion

Materialhandling

$65billion

Agriculture

$58billion

Mining

$35billion

ExpandedMarket

~$8Trillion

Off–highwayequipmentmaybea

$224billionmarket—butitfuels

the$8trillionbackboneofhowthe

worldgrows,builds,andmoves.

Construction

$4trillion

Residentialandcommercialrealestate,transportationnetworks,utilities,telecommunications

infrastructure,publicworks

Agriculture

$1.7trillion

Cropproduction,

foodprocessing,fooddistribution,retail,

livestockfeed,biofuels

Materialhandling

$1.6trillion

Warehousing,ports,distributioncenters,e-commercefulfillment,retaillogistics,manufacturingsupplychains

Mining

$1trillion

Metals,minerals,coal,aggregates

Source:OliverWymananalysis

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20257

©OliverWyman

Asaccustomedasindustrialgoodscompaniesmaybetochangingbusinesscycles,they

couldscarcelybepreparedforhowthecurrentdownturnwouldplayout.“Thisdrop-offin

thelasttwoyearswasquickanddeep,”saidacomponentsupplierexecutive.“It’sbeenthelowestsinceI’vebeenintheagindustryinthelast12years.”

Thatviewisreflectedinthelowsentiment

ratingsgivenbyexecutivesthroughoutthe

agriculturesector:TheaverageratingforOEMswas5.0,whiletheaverageforsupplierswas4.6(Exhibit2).Sentimentforconstructionequipmentandothersectorswasslightlyhigher,andacrossallsectorsOEMratingswere14%higheron

averagethanthoseofsuppliers.

Exhibit2:Ratingofthecurrentstateofindustrialgoodssectors

10.0Excellent

9.0

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.0

6.15.5

6.05.4

6.0

6.0

Survey5.7

Interviews5.2

5.0

5.0

4.6

4.0

2.0

0.0Poor

AgricultureCompact

construction

equipment

Other’Large

construction

equipment

Power

generation

Mining

OEMSupplierOverallaverage

1.OtherincludescommercialtruckingandcomponentsuppliersSource:OliverWyman/AEMinterviewsandsurvey

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20258

Wemaynotbeatthe

bottomofthetrough,butwe’renearingit.

—OEMexecutive

Alongsidethehighvolatilityfoundelsewhere,

agriculturehasexperiencedanespecially

seriousdownturn,withpricesofmanycrops

declining,netfarmincometrackingdirectlywithagequipmentsales,andthefarmbillyettoberenewed.Overall,63%ofsurveyrespondents

fromagricultureexpectrevenuetodrop—including37%whoexpectdeclinesofgreaterthan10%—byfarthemostofanysector.

Netcashfarmincomehasalwaysbeennotablyvolatile,butthemostrecentnegativespikehasbeenparticularlysevere.Followingarecord

$61billionyear-over-yeardecline,in2023US

inflation-adjustednetfarmincomedroppedtoitslowestlevelinacentury.Thedownwardtrendonlycontinuedin2024.Brighterdaysareahead,however,withanexpectedreturnto2022levelsin2025(Exhibit3).

Exhibit3:USnetcashfarmincome

Year-over-yearchangeinnominalandinflation-adjustednetcashfarmincome(NCFI)(1915to2025forecast,in$billion)

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

0

-$20

-$40

-$60

-$80

-$53billion

-$65billion

Record-largeYoYdeclineinbothnominaland

inflation-adjustedNCFI(2022–2023)

191519251935194519551965197519851995200520152025F

NominalNCFIInflation-adjusted

Source:USDAERSSeptember2025,OliverWymananalysis

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector20259

04

TARIFFSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

It’snoshockthattariffsareprovingamajorpainpointforindustrialgoodsfirms.Buttheissueisn’talwayssimplytheexistenceoftariffs;it’softentheknock-oneffectsfromtheuncertaintytheybring.

Executivessaidtheyareexhausted,andseeminglywouldbecontenttobuildtheirbusinessaround

nearlyanyleveloftariff,aslongasit’sonetheyknowandcandependon.

Fornowthough,manylamentthatdiscussionsofday-to-daybusinessoperationsarefallingbythewayside.Intheirplace,firmsarestandingup“warrooms”—strategicnervecenterswheretheytryto

predictnewtraderulesandgameouttheirpotentialconsequences.“Myconcernisthat’stimethatislost,”saidonemanufacturingexecutive.“Youknowthat

couldbeappliedtosomethingmorevaluableandmorevalue-added,likeinnovationornewbusinessmodels.”

Anextensionofthisdistractionissueisthattime

spentontariffshasleftcompaniesessentiallystuckinfirstgear,withseverelylimitedabilitytofocus

onmedium-andlong-termplanning.Ourresearch

revealedthatastartling51%ofleaders’timeisnowdedicatedtoinitiativeswithtimehorizonsoflessthanoneyear.

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202510

©OliverWyman

Theproblemisn’ttariffs,

it’sthattheychangetoofasttoplanaround.

—Propulsionsystemssupplier

Best-in-classcompaniesareattemptingto

overcomethatlimitation,adoptingtactics

aimedatcombatingtariffdifficulties,quickly

pullingthemselvesoutofthedownturn,

andproceedingseamlesslyafterwards.For

instance,duringthepandemicthesebusinessesdevelopedeffectivesystemstohandleinventoryoverhang,playingwithmultiplevariables

suchastheageofdealerrentalfleets.They’realsoinstillinggreaterdisciplinebyadding

newKPIsacrossalloperatingdivisions.

It’snotjustthetopperformers,however.

Acrosstheindustry,organizationsaretaking

awidevarietyofactionsinresponsetothe

tariffs(Exhibit4).Foremostamongtheseisan

increasedfocusoncostmanagement.Among

othermeasures,executivesweinterviewedare

implementinginternalmetricsandcost-of-capitalmodelstoensuresmartercapitalallocation.

Exhibit4:Actionsinresponsetocurrentandfuturetariffs

%ofsurveyrespondents

Focusoncostmanagement

57%

De-riskand/ordiversifysupplychains

55%

Re-shoresomeoperationsdomestically

41%

Waitandsee

38%

Exploreproductredesign

27%

Strategicpartnerships

27%

Marketexpansion/customerdiversification

25%

Leveragetariffsasastrategyforadditionalgrowthormarketshare

21%

Buildinventory

20%

Investmentsintotechnology

13%

Other

8%

None—wedon’tneedtotakeanyaction

3%

Source:OliverWyman/AEMinterviewsandsurvey

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202511

Manyfirmsalsoarechanginghowtheymaketheirproducts.Someareintroducingmodulardesignsinanefforttooptimizecost,quality,anddevelopmentcycles.Othersareadoptingflexiblemanufacturingstrategiestoproduceidenticalmachinesacrossmultipleglobalplants,wideningtheirproduct

portfoliostomitigatetariffrisks.

Morethan20%ofthecompanieswespokewith,meanwhile,arelookingtothetariffsasavehicletofuelgrowthorboosttheirmarketshare.

Investment-mindedintervieweessaidthatthis

maybetherightclimateforprioritizingexpansion,

pilotingautomationsolutions,orseekingM&Aopportunities.

Supplychainissuesaretopofmind

©OliverWyman

Notsurprisingly,oneconcernthat’sbeenespeciallypressingforthefirmsinourresearchistheirsupplychains,whichevenpriortothetradewarhavebeencomplicatedbyseeminglyback-to-backdisruptions

suchasCOVID-19,thesemiconductorchipshortage,theUkraine-Russiawar,andtheSuezCanal

bottleneck.Inall,68%saidthattariffshaveimpactedtheirsupplychainstrategymoderatelyormore.

Forthetimebeing,asizableproportionof

organizationsareoptingtotakeawait-and-seeapproachinresponsetothetariffs.Partofthatcontingentislikelyacategoryof“quietwinner”

businessesthatareeitherstructurallyinsulatedfromglobaltradefrictionsorhavepositionedthemselvestobenefitfromthemdirectly.

Fortunatelyforthefirmsthataretakingaction,alltheattentionandworkappeartobepayingdividends:79%believetheirsupplychainto

beatleastmoderatelyresilient,whileonly

5%aren’tconfidentintheirabilitytohandlecurrentconditions.That’sinlinewithfindingsfromOliverWyman’s2025GlobalSupply

ChainRiskandResiliencereport,where80%ofsurveyedbusinessesacrossnineindustriescategorizedtheirsupplychainsasresilient.

IndustrialsSayTheTariffsAreCausingUnexpectedConsequences

Manyleadersoftheagricultureand

constructioncompaniesweresearched

spokeaboutwhattheyperceiveasa

counterintuitiveeffectofrecentdevelopmentsininternationaltrade.Inadditiontobeing

ill-preparedforthelogisticalcomplexityof

thenewtariffenvironment,UScompanies

arelosingmarketshareabroadastheir

productsbecomemoreexpensive.Foreign

competitors—oftensellingdirect—are

gainingground,aidedbyAIandmanufacturinginlow-costcountries.Inshort,saidone

executive:“We’reisolatingourselves…and

protectionismisn’tprotecting—it’senabling.”

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202512

©OliverWyman

Internationalfirmsareleveragingtheirvastfootprintstomoveproductionorbuildnewfacilitiestoavoidtariffswherepossible.

Regionalizationisnowastrategicimperativetode-risktradeexposure,hedgeagainstcredit

accessissues,andoffsetshiftinggeopoliticalalliances.Forexample,oneOEMwesurveyedbuildsthesamewheelloaderintheUS,the

EU,andLatinAmerica,withtheabilitytoswap

regionalconfigurationsdependingonlocal

needsandtariffpressures.This“multi-node

manufacturingagility”servesasashockabsorberagainstgeopoliticalandsupplychainrisk.

Evenastheyhonetheirtariffcodeexpertise,thecompanieswespokewithcontinuetocontend

withahostofsupplychainchallenges.Supplier

reliabilitytoppedthelist,resultingfromarisein

distressedsuppliersthathasreducedthepoolthatcanmeetdemand,quality,andR&Dstandards

(Exhibit5).Accordingtofinancialinformation

servicesproviderCapitalIQ,inthelastthreeyearsmorethan150distressedmachinery,equipment,components,andpartssuppliersfiledfor

bankruptcy.Transportationdelaysandshippingcostincreaseseachwerealsocitedaschallengesbymorethanhalfofallrespondents.

Exhibit5:Supplychainchallengesfacedoverthepastyear

%ofsurveyrespondents(N=105)

Supplierreliability

59%

Transportationdelays

52%

Shippingcostincreases

52%

Materialshortages

50%

Inventorymanagementchallenges

43%

Qualitycontrolissues

40%

Regulatorycompliance

18%

Other(suchasnaturaldisaster,changingtradepolicies)

10%

Technologyintegration

7%

Source:OliverWyman/AEMinterviewsandsurvey

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202513

05

CHALLENGESANDFOCUSPRIORITIES

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202514

©OliverWyman

Industrialgoodsfirmscitealitanyofchallengesaffectingtheirabilitytocompete(Exhibit6).

Economicfactorssuchastradepoliciesand

geopoliticaltensionswerefrequentlymentionedbybothsurveyrespondentsandtheexecutivesweinterviewed.Thereweresomenoticeable

disparitiesbetweenthetwogroups,however,withinterviewees(manyofwhomareC-suiteexecutives)keenlyconcernedwithtalent

managementandtechnologychallenges.Thismaybeasignthatthatcohortmaintainsmoreofafocuson“outside-in”macro-levelstrategicissuesthanthedirectorsandmanagerswho

madeupoursurveysample.

Exhibit6:Topforcesaffectingcompetitiveness

%ofAEMmembers

56%

86%

+30pp

Tradepoliciesandgeopoliticalstability

54%

Operationsandsupplychain

50%

52%

Economicfactors

Executives

ininterviews

highlightedtheseastop-of-mind

challengesmorethansurvey

takersdid

61%

44%

Marketcompetition

64%

32%

Financialstrengthandflexibility

36%

27%

+48pp

Talentmanagement

75%

20%

+44pp

AIandothertechnology

64%

10%

+33pp

Regulatorycompliance

43%

3%

Governmentsupport

0%

2%

Other

14%

SurveyInterviews

Source:OliverWyman/AEMinterviewsandsurvey

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202515

©OliverWyman

Allthesechallengesmaybeaccelerating

industrials’returntoafocusontheircore

operationsoverthepastyear.They’velargelyturnedtheirattentionawayfromattempts

todiversifyintonewmarketsthatmaynot

alignwiththeirmaincompetencies,infavorofinitiativesthatcanhelpthemmanagecosts.

Withhighinflationandotherdifficulteconomicconditions,costreductionandrevenueupliftmorethaneverhavebecomenon-negotiables.

Beyondthose,companiesareconcentrating

onlong-termprioritiessuchasbusiness

transformation,capitalefficiencyimprovements,andadoptionoftechnology(Exhibit7).

Surprisingly,manyfirmsconsidercorecapital

allocationdecisionslikeacquisitionsandshare

repurchases—typicallytopboard-levelissues—tobemerely“bellsandwhistles.”Theunexpectedfindingmayindicatethattheyhavealreadytakensuchdecisionsintoaccountorhaverelegated

themtoalowerlevelwhiledealingwith

geopoliticaluncertaintyandotherconcerns.

Exhibit7:Strategicpriorities

%ofsurveyrespondents(N=105)Costreduction

58%

Revenueuplift

55%

Non-negotiables

Long-termbusinesstransformation

43%

Capitalefficiency

41%

Technologyadoption

36%

Organicinvestment

28%

Eyesonlong-term

Returningcapitaltoshareholders

12%

Acquisitions

12%

Other(suchastariffs,supplychain)

7%

Addressingregulatoryfeedback

7%

Divestitures

1%

Bellsandwhistles

Source:OliverWyman/AEMinterviewsandsurvey

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202516

©OliverWyman

Universally,growthremainsapriority.Firmsnowarepursuingitwithgreaterintention,trainingonrevenuefromtheirfundamentalbusinesslines.

“Despitethecurrentstate,thereisstillagrowth

agenda,”saidanexecutivefromanagriculture

OEM.“Wehavetoevaluate,isthedestinationstillsound?Andisthevelocitythesame?Doweneedtospeeduporslowdown?”Thelistofgrowthactionsislengthy,includingaftermarketandservicerevenueexpansion,R&Dinvestment,andinternationalor

regionalexpansion.

Bolsteringdealerrelationships

Agoodexampleoftheemphasisoncorebusiness

areasisthepushamongOEMsandotherstosetup

theirdealershipsforsuccess.Inoursurvey,61%of

executivessaytheyarerampingupdealerenablementsuchasbuildingtools,engagingintraining,expandingtheirfootprint,andorchestratingandsupporting

M&Adeals.

ThisisparticularlyanissueforOEMsthathaveamorelimitedequipmentlineorgeographicreachthanthelargestplayers.Thesebusinessesmustearndealers’“shareofmind”bybuildingtherightcapabilities,havingtherightdataathand,andreallyengagingthecustomerbase.“Ifyou’reoneoffourexcavatorbrandsinadealerportfolio,youbetterwintheirattention,”saidone

executive.“Wecan’tjustdictatelikethebigguys.”

Meanwhile,equipmentmakers’revenueandcosts

arealsobeingheavilyaffectedbyashiftinthebuyingcycle.Besetbyinflationandhighinterestrates,

smallercustomerstendtoholdontotheirequipmentforlonger.Thishasstretchedtraditionalpurchasingcyclesandspurreddemandforusedproducts,evenreshapingmarginmodelsandproductdesign.Somemachinerynowisexpectedtoremainoperationalfordecades,whichhasalsopromptedmanufacturerstopushaftermarketsolutions.Indeed,aftermarketandattendantelementslikesoftware,channelincentives,andextendedwarrantypackagingwilltakeonevengreaterimportancemovingforward.

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector202517

06

Throughoursurveyandinterviewswith

industrialgoodsleaders,itbecameclearthat

manyofthefoundationalcomponentsofthe

sectoraretransforming.Wechosethefollowingsixchangesbecauseofthemeaningfulimpacttheywillhaveoneveryoneintheindustryoverthenextfiveto10years,aswellasthemajor

opportunitiestheypresentforthosewhoarepreparedtotaketacticalaction.

FUNDAMENTALCHANGESONTHEHORIZON

01.

TheDistributionChannelIsBeingRewrittenQuietly,ButIrreversibly

02.

NavigatingTheCustomerBarbellEffect

03.

LaborAsTheBottleneckAndCatalyst

04.

DigitalToolsMovingFromOptionalToOperational

05.

TheInnovationPressureCooker

06.

BackToBasics:CoreProducts

©OliverWyman

TheStateoftheIndustrialGoodsSector2025

01

02

03

04

05

06

TheDistribution

ChannelisBeingRewrittenQuietly,butIrreversibly

Ifyou’reoneoffourexcavatorbrandsinadealerportfolio,

youbetterwintheirattention.Wecan’tjustdictatelikethebigguys.

—ConstructionOEMexecutive

Newgo-to-marketmodelsaretransformingwhatitmeanstobeclosetothecustomer,andfailuretoadaptcouldposeanexistentialrisk.Amid

increasingcompetitionfordistributionpathsfromAsianbusinesses,savvymanufacturersareradicallychangingtheirchannelplaybooksandlaunchingallmannerofexperim