2025锂盐市场发展现状及未来展望

锂盐市场发展现状及未来展望Current

Development

Status

and

Future

Outlook

of

the

Lithium

Chemicals

Market上海有色网新能源行业研究院

王子涵SMM

New

Energy

Industry

Research

Institute

Sylvia

Wang©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.目录Content1.锂盐市场现状：超预期需求推动锂盐库存去化，价格大幅波动加剧市场博弈Current

State

of

the

Lithium

Chemical

Market:

Demand

Exceeding

Expectations

Drives

Inventory

Reduction,

While

Significant

Price

Fluctuations

Intensify

Market

Competition2.

未来供需格局如何演化？How

Will

the

Future

Supply-Demand

Pattern

Evolve?©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.锂盐市场现状：超预期需求推动锂盐库存去化，价格大幅波动加剧市场博弈Current

State

ofthe

Lithium

Chemicals

Market:Stronger-Than-Expected

Demand

Drives

Inventory

Reduction,

Significant

PriceFluctuations

Intensify

Market

Competition©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.85,00075,00065,00055,000857002025-01-012025-03-012025-05-012025-07-012025-09-01599002025年8月下旬-2025年9月下旬9月碳酸锂现货价格出现回落，环比下跌6%。从供需层面来看，本月行业迎来需求旺季，下游材料厂采购积极，库存周期小幅延长。供应方面，锂辉石端产量增长有效弥补了江西锂云母供应减量，但当月供应总量仍低于旺盛的需求，形成明显的去库格局。供需缺口主要通过消耗前期社会累计库存来满足，因此并未对即期供应造成实质性压力。叠加8月价格急涨后的技术性回调需求，共同推动市场看涨情绪降

温

，9月电池级碳酸锂月度均价回落至7.41万元/吨。9月氢氧化锂现货价格持续上行，市场供需持续紧缩，下游因订单好于预期，叠加节前备货计划，需求有显著增加；上游盐厂惜售情绪浓厚，散单报价维持高位。在整体市场持续去库的情况下，虽碳酸锂和 锂矿价格有小幅回落，但氢氧化锂价格整月维持小幅抬涨。2025年7月下旬-2025年8月下旬8月碳酸锂现货价格大幅上涨，环比增幅逼近20%，主力合约期货价格也经历多次涨停突破9万元/吨关口。本轮上涨主要受江西地区多家锂矿企业矿权争议影响，其中枧下窝矿山停产已导致锂云母端碳酸锂产量显著减少。市场情绪推动+供需格局反转去库，8月电池级碳酸锂月度均价已逼近7.9万元/吨。8月氢氧化锂现货流通持续偏紧。上旬，碳酸锂与锂矿共振拉涨。氢氧化锂上下游谈单情绪转变，散单报价不断攀升，碳氢价差急速收窄。厂商库存去化明显，惜售情绪强烈中国电池级碳酸锂与电池级氢氧化锂价格回顾China

Battery-Grade

Lithium

Carbonate

and

Battery-Grade

Lithium

Hydroxide

Price

Review325,000275,000225,000175,000125,00075,00025,000Analysis

of

Price

Trends

for

Battery-Grade

Lithium

Carbonate

and

Battery-Grade

Lithium

Hydroxide

in

China

(Unit:

yuan/mt)2023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-012025-01-012025-03-012025-05-012025-07-012025-09-01中国电池级碳酸锂与电池级氢氧化锂价格走势分析（单位：元/吨）数据来源：SMM基于模型的加工数据Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelandmarketcommunicationSMMshanghaiMetals

Market电池级氢氧化锂Battery-Grade

LH电池级碳酸锂Battery-Grade

LC©

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rights

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4。碳酸锂产量增长：江西及青海地区供应端减量，锂辉石拉动碳酸锂产出持续增长；需求带动去库并支撑价格Growth

in

Lithium

Carbonate

Production:

Supply

Reductions

in

Jiangxi

and

Qinghai,

Spodumene

Boosts

Continuous

Output

Growth;

Demand

Drives

Destocking

and

Supports

Prices11754310796214.9714.8611.3713.4517.1912.37中国碳酸锂供需平衡概览Overview

of

China's

LH

Supply-Demand

Balance单位:

万吨

LCEUnit:

10kt

LCE

平衡

产量

进口

出口

需求中国碳酸锂样本月度库存量级及库存指数Monthly

Inventory

Scale

and

Inventory

Index

of

Lithium

Carbonate

Samples

in

ChinaLCELCE单位：实物吨、天Unit:

mt;

day

上游冶炼厂Upstream

下游正极厂Downstream

其他Others中国碳酸锂月度产量细分Breakdown

of

China's

Monthly

Lithium

Carbonate

Production数据来源：SMM基于市场交流及模型处理的加工数据Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelandmarketcommunication

锂辉石一体化开工率Spodumene

Integrated

Operating

Rate

锂辉石非一体化开工率Spodumene

Non-integrated

Operating

Rat+51%+3%46,65040,610Monthly

Production

of

Lithium

Carbonate

in

China 锂辉石

锂云母盐湖卤水回收75%

78%65%45%一体化Integrated非一体化Non-integrated45,1402025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-1212876013.7914.0018.0913808812.2313.3118.6413203311.9915.1217.0814056713.8215.9312.145002025/1/312025/2/282025/3/312025/4/302025/5/312025/6/302025/7/312025/8/312025/9/302025/01

2025/02

2025/03

2025/042025/052025/06

2025/07

2025/082025/092025/102025/112025/1214172614.1514.8016.7613190711.3113.9418.2889,8909%15%12%65%78,0907%17%25%51%85,2409%13%16%63%87,2609%14%13%64%81,5308%15%22%55%SMMshanghaiMetals

Market1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5151050-5-10-1510.5315.828.46中国碳酸锂月度产量10%16%10%65%©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.10%16%10%65%9%17%25%49%2025-05

2025-092025-052025-09单位：实物吨Unit:

mt单位:

万吨Unit:

10ktPage

513552926,94040.83

0.62

0.41

0.200.0-1

-0.2-2

-0.4-3

-0.6-4

2025/01

2025/022025/03

2025/04

2025/052025/06

2025/07

2025/082025/09

2025/10

2025/11

2025/12-0.8氢氧化锂行业以销定产为主，零单交易不活跃；三元电芯需求驱动放缓，市场供需格局趋稳The

lithium

hydroxide

industry

primarily

operates

on

a

produce-based-on-sales

model,

with

spot

orders

being

inactive;

demand

for

ternary

battery

cells

is

slowing

down,

and

the

market's

supply-demand

pattern

is

stabilizing.18,72420,84536,462

38,85239,992

40,852

41,052

39,902

34,08026,45020,16034%碳酸锂LCCR566%其他OthersMonthly

Inventory

of

Lithium

Hydroxide

Samples

in

China

冶炼厂Upstream下游Downstream其他Others18%氢氧化锂LH中国氢氧化锂供需平衡概览Overview

of

China's

LH

Supply-Demand

Balance数据来源：SMM基于市场交流及模型处理的加工数据Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelandmarketcommunication中国氢氧化锂月度产量Monthly

Production

of

LH

in

China60,00045,00030,00015,00002025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122025/1/31

2025/2/282025/3/312025/4/30

2025/5/31

2025/6/302025/7/31

2025/8/312025/9/3056,58651,73916,68417,66027,47025,170SMMshanghaiMetals

Market中国氢氧化锂样本月度库存平衡产量进口

出口

需求45,17341,004©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.中国锂盐CR5占比54,47915,627CR5

Share

of

Lithium82%单位:

万吨Unit:

10k

mtChemicals

in

China单位:

万吨Unit:

10k

mt58,09917,048单位：实物吨Unit:

mt单位：实物吨Unit:

mt54,34117,88055,26715,27557,31716,466Page

625,65026,95024,45027,02025,77021,820CR5未来供需格局如何演化？How

will

the

future

supply

and

demand

landscape

evolve?©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

2025年增长与主导地位：全球新能源汽车销量渗透率从2％激增至23％以上

，主要由中国（占有率71％）和政策驱动的欧洲市场推动

，而美国因基建和政治障碍进展滞后。

In

2025,

global

NEV

sales

penetration

surged

from

2%

to

over

23%,

driven

by

China(71%

share)

and

policy-led

European

markets,

while

the

US

lagged

due

to

infrastructure

and

political

hurdles.

市场驱动力：政策激励、技术进步以及消费者环保意识提升共同推动了向新能源汽车的转型。

The

transition

to

New

Energy

Vehicles

is

powered

by

policy

incentives,

technological

advances,

and

growing

consumer

eco-awareness.82%51%49%26%30%25%10%23%10%2%

2%13%6%中国挪威德国英国UK美国USA日本印度泰国巴西ChinaNorway

GermanyJapanIndiaThailandBrazil亚太地欧洲地区

北美地

全球区Asia-

Europe

区NorthGlobal全球新能源汽车市场回顾与展望

Global

NEV

Market:A

Review

and

Outlook2018-2024新能源车作为落实各国双碳目标的重要抓手，在资金补贴及监管的引导下，产销飞速增长；2025-2030中国锂电供应链布局+技术突破→全球车销维持稳定速率上升，新能源车渗透率增长为大势所趋2018-2024

From

policy-driven

growth

to

2025-2030

tech-led

expansion

:

China's

battery

ecosystem

fuels

the

steady

rise

of

global

NEVs.2018-2030E全球新能源汽车销量（单位：万辆）

乘用车Passenger

商用车Commercial

CAGR+9%

20182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ENote:

TheCommercialNEV

onlyincludes

cars

using

lithium

battery.新能源汽车渗透率（2025）国家分布

地区分布©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.数据来源：公开信息、SMM基于模型加工处理

Page

8 中国China美国USA欧洲EU日韩Japan&

Korea其他Others1862002846089801,3001,6301,8842,1082,8992018-2030E全球新能源乘用车销量（单位：万辆）40%

51%11%16%45%

28%50%60%11%10%36%26%20182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E1,029638320SMMshanghaiMetals

Market

+12%

2,22855%19%20%61%11%23%68%10%17%70%8%17%71%8%16%73%6%14%3,10293%CAGR+41%Pacific

America+17%1,3541,9881,70196%96%95%95%230216+15%+63%

58450945%45%31215%43%

14%19%16%

22%19%

22%17%20242025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

c

:

：bli

I

a

i

M,

-

a

cessed

DatasedPro工处理B加odel模型M于SMMM基onSnform开信息c公Pu源e来Sour数据全球储能市场回顾与展望Global

Energy

Storage

Market:

Review

and

Outlook全球储能市场的主要增长区域仍将集中于三大地区：中国、美国和欧洲；受2030愿景影响，中东、澳大利亚和东南亚等新兴地区释放出大储型储能的巨大需求量The

global

energy

storage

market

will

remain

concentrated

in

three

key

regions:

China,

the

US,

and

Europe.

Driven

by

2030

climate

visions,

emerging

markets

like

the

Middle

East,

Australia,

and

Southeast

Asia

are

unleashing

strong

demand

for

large-scale

energy

storage

主要国家和地区的关键推动因素能源转型EnergyTransition取消强制配储Endto

ForcedStorageMandates电网稳定性Grid

Stability23亿户储补贴A$2.3BResidentialStorageSubsidy能源转型EnergyTransition户储需求驱动ResidentialStorage

Drivers电力市场改革Power

MarketReform能源转型目标EnergyTransition

Goals产能投资计划CapacityInvestmentRoadmap强制配储政策MandatoryEnergyStoragePolicy2024-2030E全球储能需求量回顾与预测

(单位:

GWh)2024-2030E

Global

Energy

Storage

Demand:

Historical

Data

and

Projection

(GWh)北美North

America

1,022其他OthersCAGR+15%43%关税Tariff大而美法案Big

andBeautiful

Act18%19%20%2030ESMMshanghaiMetals

MarketKey

Drivers:

A

Regional

Breakdown

代表积极影响中国China欧洲Europe

代表消极影响中东Page

924%铁锂占比将持续提升：得益于成本优势与安全性；钴出口禁令引发的供应链威胁也将进一步压占三元材料市占率The

market

share

of

LFP

batteries

is

set

to

continue

rising,

driven

by

their

cost

advantages

and

enhanced

safety.

Meanwhile,

cobalt

export

restrictions

are

posing

supply

chain

risks,

further

squeezing

the

market

share

of

ternary

materials.+14%30%+39%

2,3812,08527%1,502

25%23%62%2022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EPage

10

动力EV

储能ES

消费CEBCAGR+10%2022-2030E全球锂离子电池产量（按化学类型划分）（单位：

GWh)2022-2030E

Global

Lithium-ion

Battery

Production

by

Chemistry

(GWh)2022-2030E全球锂离子电池产量（按终端市场划分）（单位：

GWh)2022-2030

Global

Lithium-ion

Battery

Production

Forecast

by

Segment

(GWh)

磷酸铁锂LFP

三元NCM

钴酸锂LCO

锰酸锂LMO其他Others2022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E3,47117%75%数据来源：SMM基于模型的加工数据Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodel2,08523%

28%69%

78%SMMshanghaiMetals

Market+14%2,38171%

67%©

SMM.

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rights

reserved.35%60%43%51%46%47%CAGR+10%3,471+39%1,50067%65%12%单位：万吨Unit:

10k

mt2023-2030年全球碳酸锂产量预测2023-2030

Global

Lithium

CarbonateProduction

Outlook260240220200180160140120100806040200中国China海外OverseasCAGR+11%29%+16%+30%13730%105

30%71%70%70%64%61%2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E2025-2030年全球产量分原料占比2025-2030

Global

Production

Mix

by

Raw

Material回收2030E7%锂辉石40%202512%锂云母2023-2030年全球碳酸锂供需平衡预测2023-2030

Global

Lithium

Carbonate

Supply/Demand

Outlook供应

Supply

需求

Demand

平衡

Balance2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E中国贡献碳酸锂主要增量：行业资源一体化程度逐步加深，长期回收占比预期增大China's

Dominant

Lithium

Carbonate

Supply

Growth:

Driven

by

Vertical

Integration

and

Rising

Future

Recycling

Share单位：万吨Unit:

10k

mt250200150100500-50-100-150-200-2502023©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

数据来源：SMM

基于模型的加工数据Source:SMMmodel-processeddata302520151050-5-10-15-20-25-30SMMshanghaiMetals

Market7539%盐湖

40%Page

1118%锂辉石锂云母36%回收38%35%盐湖1592419%碳酸锂各原料端毛利率相差悬殊，回收行业盈利状况略有好转，但仍呈小幅亏损

SMMLithium

carbonate

production

shows

wide

gross

margin

disparities

by

feedstock.

The

recycling

sector,

despite

n

somearket

improvement,

continues

to

operate

at

a

slight

loss.

2025年中国锂产业链各环节毛利率对比2025

Gross

Margin

Comparison

Across

China's

Lithium

Industry

Chain

Segments最优企业的毛利率可达到60%，

且行业平均水平优于其他环节©

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rights

reserved.

数据来源：SMM

基于模型的加工数据

Page

12Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodel2025Q3平均开工率Average

Operating

Rate,

2025

Q3CR5占比（产量）CR5

Share

(Production)26%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%锂云母（非一体化）

L(Not

Integrated

)锂辉石（非一体化）

S(Not

Integrated

)锂辉石（一体化）

S（Integrated）锂云母（一体化）L(Integrated)行业多数处于小幅亏损

-

盈亏平衡状态盐湖提锂(Brine)回收(Recycle)48%58%68%58%89%66%36%77%81%91%91%2025年中国放宽对黑粉进出口的限制，以提高资源回收效率并降低对外依存度；长期将加速国内回收锂SMM产业发展

hangha

MetaMarketAmid

the

growing

global

volume

of

scraped

lithium

batteries,

China

has

eased

import-export

restrictions

on

black

mass

to

enhance

resource

recyclingefficiency

and

reduce

foreign

dependence;

While

the

short-term

impact

remains

limited,

this

will

accelerate

domestic

recycled

lithium

growth

in

the

long

run.1

.

符合本表规定的锂离子电池回收黑粉不被视为固体废物，可自由进口。Recycled

black

massfor

lithium-ion

batteries

thatcomply

with

this

table

arenot

considered

solid

wasteand

can

be

imported

freely.2

.

黑粉的海关编码已公布，该通知自2025年8月1日起实施。The

HS

code

for

black

mass

wasannounced,

and

the

notice

hasbeen

implemented

sinceAugust

1,

2025.8%7%9%73%

中国

China

欧洲

Europe

北美

North

America

日本和韩国

Japan&Korea

其他

Others单位：吨Unit:

mt由于技术问题，多数海外黑粉无法满足现行水溶性氟含量

要求，短期内黑粉进口量预计受限。部分企业将与其他回收商合作进行二次脱氟处理。

Due

to

the

technology

issue，

mostoverseas

black

mass

fails

to

meet

thecurrent

water-soluble

fluorine

content

requirements,

imports

of

black

mass

are

expected

to

be

limited

in

the

short

term.Part

of

companies

will

cooperate

with

other

recyclers

to

do

secondary

defluorination.©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

数据来源：公开信息、SMM基于市场交流的模型加工数据

Page

13Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonpubliclyavailableinformation,modelandmarketcommunication20%~10k+40%全球黑粉产量Global

black

mass

production

volume2024

2025H14%9%8%8%71%关于规范黑粉进口的公告Announcement

on

regulating

the

import

of

black

mass单位：吨Unit:

mt~180k+2025年中国黑粉预计进口量2025

China

expected

imported

black

mass

volume黑粉进口性能指数要求Import

performance

index

requirements

for

black

mass

北美

North

America

东南亚

Southeast

Asia

日本和韩国

Japan&Korea

Others3%~340k

+25%15%全球可回收锂总量(2018-2030E)Global

Recyclable

Lithium

Volume

(2018-2030E)美国US中国CNCAGR+32%920182019

2020

2021

2022

2023756%75%2026E2027E2028E2029E中国是全球最大的黑粉生产和冶炼地区；后续随海外湿法产能释放，欧美及日韩等地再生锂金属量逐渐提升China

is

the

world's

largest

producer

and

smelting

region

of

black

mass.

Subsequently,

with

the

release

of

overseas

hydrometallurgical

capacity,

the

metal

content

of

recycled

lithium

in

Europe,

the

United

States,

Japan,

and

South

Korea

will

gradually

increase©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

数据来源：SMM

基于模型的加工数据

Page

14Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodel单位：千金属吨Unit:kt

Li其他Others欧洲EU635%77%2025E69%2030E475%75%2024SMMshanghaiMetals

Market1559%CAGR+20%2023-2030年全球氢氧化锂供需平衡预测Global

Lithium

Hydroxide

Supply-Demand

Balance

Forecast,

2023-2030E202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

供应

Supply

需求

Demand

平衡

Balance

中国

China2023-2030年全球氢氧化锂产量预测Global

Lithium

Hydroxide

Production

Forecast,

2023-2030E单位：万吨Unit:

10kmt

海外

Overseas+6%423719%3081%1002026E2027E

2028E2029E2030E20252025-2030年全球三元系别占比Global

Ternary

System

Proportion,

2025-2030E

中镍

Middle

Nickel

中高镍

Middle-High

Nickel

高镍

High

Nickel14%31%9%55%

35%氢氧化锂增量有限：需求发展高镍化，但三元动力市场份额不断受到压占

SMMLithium

Hydroxide

Increment

Limited:

Demand

Development

Trends

Toward

High

Nickel

Content,

but

Ternary

Power

Market

hanghaMetaMarket

Share

Continues

to

Be

Squeezed©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

数据来源：SMM

基于模型的加工数据

Page

15Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodel50403020100-10-20-30-40-501086420-2-4-6-8-1081%2025E88%2023单位：万吨Unit:

10kmt4114%CAGR+2%50403212%2030E202480%86%20%-11%19%3955%20阿根廷澳大利亚巴西玻利维亚津巴布韦

马里

Mali智利中国Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Bolivia

Zimbabwe

Chile

ChinaPage

16澳大利亚

Australia中国

China智利

Chile津巴布韦

Zimbabwe阿根廷

Argentina巴西

Brazil其他

Others19%单位：万吨Unit:

10kmt13%4%7%2030E11%22%15%2022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2025年不同类型锂资源的中国供应占比拆分Breakdown

of

China's

Supply

Share

by

Different

Types

of

Lithium

Resources

in

2025

其他国家

Others中国

China2022-2030年锂资源供应集中度下降，边际增速同步放缓Concentration

of

Lithium

Resources

Supply

Declined,

Marginal

Growth

Rate

Simultaneously

Slowed

Down,

2022-2030EGlobal

Primary

and

Recycled

Lithium锂辉石Spodumene盐湖卤水Brine锂云母Lepidolite11%67%89%33%2025

vs.

2030年原生锂资源供应量占比（分国别）Proportion

of

Primary

Lithium

Resources

Supply

by

Country

in

2025

vs.

2030E2025&2026E全球锂资源增量拆解（分国别）2025

&

2026E

Global

Lithium

Resources

Increment

Breakdown

by

Country单位：万吨

LCEUnit:10kmtLCE2025年增量

2025

Increment2026年增量

2026

Increment单位：万吨

LCEUnit:10kmtLCE

28615%8%32%CAGR+11%6%92回收

Recycle其他

Others1077844%

44%

48%

48%

50%锂辉石

Spodumene锂云母

Lepidolite盐湖

Brine回收

Recycle其他

Others©

SMM.

All

rights

reserved.

数据来源：公开信息、SMM

基于市场交流的模型加工数据2210Source:PublicInformation,SMM

ProcessedDataBasedonMarketCommunication

and

Model2022-2030年全球原生及再生锂资源供应量+31%140

11%34%8%9%2025SMMshanghaiMetals

Market48%

48%45%

44%42Resources

Supply,

2022-2030E90%10%74%26%43+19%

+17%21111958%36%16710%34%9%

4%1%7%98%28%25%27%2%6%49Tres

Quebradas

（紫金矿业）察尔汗盐湖（蓝科锂业）拉果措盐湖(紫金矿业）麻米措盐湖（藏格矿业）一期产能2万吨/年碳酸锂（已投产）；二期许可审批等前期工作正有序推进，规划产能4万吨/年新建4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目，2025年9月公告投产同时推进与比亚迪合作的3万吨碳酸锂项目一期年产2万吨锂盐项目于2025年开产，二期4万吨/年锂盐项目预期于2026年年建成2025年6月5万吨/年碳酸锂项目获立项核准于三季度启动全面建设，若进展顺利，2026年可实现满产2025202520252026Goulamina

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(Premier)西海锂业一期50.6万吨锂精矿产能，二期产能可扩建到83.1万吨锂精矿；一期产能于2024年投产，2025年年中开始运输投产爬坡中，产能10-12万吨/年

5.5%以上精矿2025年8月宣布完成调试测试阶段，近期开始生产5万吨锂精矿的试点产