房地产 -气候风险和房地产弹性 Climate Risk and Real Estate Resilience

CBRE

creatingResilience

climateRiskandRealEstateResilience

VIEWPOINT

CBRERESEARCHNOVEMBER2025

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

2

RESEARCH

Introduction

TheannualuNClimate"conference

oftheparties"(cop30)got

underwaylastweekinBel⃞m,Brazil.Cop30comesagainstabackdropofheightenedclimateriskdueto

frequentandintenseweatherevents,suchastropicalcyclones,floods,

heatwaves,droughtsandbushfires.

Thisdamagecanbequantifiedinmonetaryterms,withsome

estimatesputtingtheaverageannuallossfromclimateextremeeventsinAsiapacificataroundus$780billion,potentially

increasingtous$1.2U$1.5trillioninmoderatetoworst-casescenarios.1

Thesecostsincludedirectdamagesfromeventslikefloodingandtyphoonsalongwithfuturelossesprojectedtoimpactasignificantportionoftheregion'SGDP.

climaterelatedeventsposesignificantriskstorealestateassetsandsurroundingareas.Asaresult,propertyownersandoccupiersmustaugmentoperationalresiliencetomaintainassetvalueand

viability.

ThisviewpointbycBREexplainshowtherealestateindustryisidentifyingandmitigatingthephysicalrisksassociatedwiththeimpactsofclimate-relatedevents,

AsiapacificcannotAffordtolgnoreExtremeweather,BarclaysBank,2023.

corradoForcellati HeadofpaiaFROMCBREsingaporeandsoutheastAsia

Su-FernTanHeadofsustainabilitypacific

JonathanHills seniorDirectorAsiapacificResearch

1AsiapacificcannotAffordtolgnoreExtremeweather,BarclaysBank,2023.

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

3RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

steadyincreaseinclimateextremeevents

severeclimatemmrelatedeventshaveincreasedinintensityacrossmanyregionsoftheworldinrecentdecades,with

Asiapacificnoexception.

TheworldMeteorologicalorganisation's(WMO)"stateoftheclimateinAsia2024"reportfoundthatAsiawasamongtheworld'smostimpactedregionsfromclimate,weather,andwaterrelatedhazardsin2024.2

precipitationrelatedeventssuchasfloodsandstormstypicallycausethemostcasualtiesandeconomiclossesin

potentialhavesteadilyincreasedinrecentdecades(Figure1),withclimatechangeamajorcontributingfactor.

Thisyeartheregionhassufferedaseriesofclimate-relateddisastersincludingmonsoonfloodinginmainlandchina,aswellasflashfloods,landslides,andothersevereweathereventsinIndonesia,Thailandandthe

philippines.

seasonin2025.Thecityistypicallyhitbyaroundsixtyphoonsannuallybutbymidseptemberhadalreadybeenstruckbyeightwithwarningsignalsoflevel1orhigher.3

Figure1:AnnualAccumulatedcycloneEnergy(ACE)andNumberofTropicalcyclonesofandabovecategory3inAsiapacificBasinsFrom1970tooctober11th,2025

cat4cat5AnnualACE

25

15

500

10

300

5

0

400

200

2

/news/media

centre/rising

temperatures

-

and

-

extreme

weather

-

hitasla

hard

3

.hk/en/media/press

-

release/2025/09,/23/cityuhkclimate

-

scientist

-

analyses

-

unusual

-

typhoon-surge

-

in

-

hong

-

kong

-

in

-

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

4RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

TyphoonRagasathemostpowerfulcycloneeverrecordedinflictedwidespreaddamageonthecityandthe

widersouthernchinaareainseptember,causingseveraldays'disruptionandeconomiclossesestimatedathundredsofmillionsofusD.4

ThetyphoonforcedtheclosureofcontainerterminalsinHongkongsAR,shenzhen,andGuangzhouforseveral

days,whileHongkongInternationalAirportwasshutteredfor36hours,thelongestperiodinitshistory,groundingairfreightandseverelydisruptingsupplychains.

asignificantrisktorealestateassetsandsurroundingareas.

valueandviabilityoftheirproperties.

Impactsonrealestate

severeclimateeventsimpactrealestateinseveralways.Theseinclude:

physicaldamageandrepaircosts:Typhoons,floods,andbushfirescancausesubstantialdamagetobuildings,infrastructureandsurroundingareas,leadingtohighrepairandmaintenancecostsandpotentialoperational

shutdowns.Increasedexposuretomorefrequentandextremeweatherincidentswillaffectaspectsofbuildingmaintenancesuchasglazing,claddingandfapades,pushingupoperationalcostsovertime.5

Increasedinsurancecostsandreducedinsurability:Therisingfrequencyandseverityofextremeweathereventsarepushingupinsurancepremiums,especiallyinhighriskareas.propertiesinhighlyvulnerableareasmaybecomedifficultorimpossibletoinsureaffordably,negativelyimpactingtheirmarketabilityandabilitytobefinanced.

4

/news/hong

-

kong/hong

-

kong

-

economy/article/3326892/hong

-

kongs-

economic-

lossesragasa

-

may

-

run-billions

5

/insights/articles/business

insightshow

-

property

management-is-building

resilienceto-climate

-

risk

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

5RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

Impactonpropertyvaluationandinvestmentperformance:climateriskisincreasinglyfactoredintoproperty

valuationsandinvestordecisions.propertieslocatedinareaswithhighexposuretophysicalrisksmayseea

declineinassetvalue,whilethoseconsideredmoreresilientcouldbenefitfromapricingpremium.somebuildingsmaybeatriskofbecoming"strandedassets";atermreferringtoapropertythathaslostorisexpectedtolose

significanteconomicvalueprematurelyduetoexternalfactorssuchasclimate-relatedevents.

Disruptiontooperationsandsupplychains:Damagetoapropertyorsurroundinginfrastructurecandisruptbusinessoperations,leadingtoalossofrentalincomeandloweroccupancyrates.

shiftingoccupierandinvestorpreferences:Asoccupiersandinvestorsincreasinglyincorporateclimateriskintodecisions,theypreferbuildingswithsustainabilitycredentialsandresiliencemeasures.propertieswithexposuretosevereclimateeventsfacetheriskofbecomingobsoletewithreducedleasingpotentialandthepossibilityofbeingsubjecttoa"browndiscount".

Financingchallenges:Lendersareapplyingstricterrulesandhigherlendingratiosforpropertiesatrisktoclimaterelatedevents,reflectingtheheightenedcreditriskassociatedwithclimatevulnerability.

AustralianpropertyvaluescouldreachAUD611billion(USD390billion)by2050underahigh(3。c)globalwarmingscenario.

Thisfigurerepresentsthedropinmarketvalueofpropertiesasclimaterisks(suchasfloods,bushfires,tropicalcyclones,andheatwaves)becomemoreapparent,leadingtobuyerspayingless,bankspotentiallylowering

valuations,andinsurancebecomingmoreexpensiveormorechallengingtoobtain.

Enhancingpropertyresiliencetoclimaterisks

Themostobviouswaycommercialrealestatecanbeprotectedfromsevereclimateeventsistobuilditinlocationswherethereisalowlikelihoodofsucheventsoccurring.

whilethisisnotalwayspossibleinAsiapacific'smanycoastalandsubmmtropicalcities,investorscanneverthelessconductriskassessmentsattheduediligencephaseofassetorsiteselectiontoidentifypotentialhazardsandpinpointlocations(evenwithinthesameneighbourhood)lessvulnerabletospecificthreats.

otherfactorstoconsiderincludetheresilienceofthewiderarea'sinfrastructuresuchasthepowergrid,watersupplyanddrainage,andtransportationroutes,toensurecontinuityofoperationsduringandafteraclimateextremeevent,

Intermsofpropertyfeatures,investorsshouldensureresiliencefeaturesareimplementedatthedesignstagefornewbuildsorretrofittedinexistingproperties.

6

https://www.crrem.eu/wp

-

content/uploads/2022/12/CRREM

-

initiativedefinitionon-stranding

-

riskand

-

stranded

-

assets

-

in

-

the

-

build

-

environment.pdf

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

6RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

practicalbuilding-levelmeasuresmayinclude:

Installingbackuppowersystems:Theseareusuallyacombinationofstandbycommercialgeneratorsforlongdurationpowerandanuninterruptiblepowersupplyforinstantaneoustransfertobackuppower.Ideally,propertyownersshouldutiliserenewableenergysystemssuchassolarpanelswithbackupstoragetomaintainpower

duringoutages.plantroomsandothercriticalsystemscanalsoberelocatedtoupperfloorstosafeguardthemfrompotentialflooding.

upgradingdrainageinfrastructure:Landlordsshouldimplementadvancedstormwaterdrainagesystemsandwaterchannels.Effectivestormdrainageforofficebuildingsusuallycomprisesamultilayeredsystemofroofdrainswithprimary/overflowpipes,externalsitedrainageliketrenchdrains,andfeaturessuchaspermeablesurfacesandlandscapingtominimizesoilerosionandrunoff.

Investinginimpact-resistantwindows:so-called"hurricanewindows"areengineeredtowithstandextreme

optionsincludehighperformancedoublepanewindows,whichareengineeredtowithstandstrongerwinds.

Formulatedisasterrecoveryplans:commercialrealestatelandlordsshouldhavestrategiesinplacetominimisetheimpactofclimaterelatedhazards,respondeffectivelyduringaclimaterelatedevent,andrestoreproperty

operationstonormalwithinashorttimeframe.

Evenrelativelysmalldetailssuchaswheretolocatebuildinglobbiesandentrancedoorsshouldbegivencareful

consideration.ThisisespeciallyrelevantinthecaseofpropertiessituatedoncoastlinesofcitiessuchasHong

kongsAR,TokyoandManila,forwhichfloodmitigationmeasuresmaybeinsufficienttopreventseafacinggroundfloorareasbecominginundatedduringstormsandfloods.

EmergencyBack-UPBatterystorage

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

7RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

InAustralia,measuresinbushfireproneareasincludeclearingflammablevegetationaroundthebuilding's

perimetertocreateadefensivespace.Forbuildingsexperiencingtheurbanheatislandeffect,ownerscanaddmorevegetationtoprovideshade.

whilstsuchfeaturesarerelativelystraightforward,andregulatorsareexertingpressuretoadoptthem,

implementingclimateriskmitigationandadaptationmeasuresfacechallenges.Manychallengesrelatetopropertyowners'perceptionsofrisk.

somerealestateindustrystakeholdersfocusonshortmmtermhorizonsandeitherdonotseeclimateriskasa

proximatethreatorfearthatactingwillnegativelyaffecttheirimmediateinterests.Risksareoftenviewedasnotbeingpredictableenoughtowarrantconcreteaction,andtheirimpactmaynotbeconsistentacrossportfolios.

Althoughtherewillcomeatippingpointwherecertainareasbecomehighriskzonesforinvestmentandinsurance,andvaluationswillcomedown,theuncertaintiesofclimateriskcanmakepropertyinvestorsreluctanttointroducemeasurestodaythatreducelongmmtermcostsandpreserveassetvalue.

CBREexpectsoccupierslookingtominimisetheirexposuretoclimateriskwillincreasinglyoptforresilient

properties,ashiftthatwillhaveconsequencesfortheperformanceofbuildingswithorwithoutsuchfeatures.putsimply,resilientbuildingswillcommandhigherrentsandlong-termvalue,

Leveragingclimaterisktools

platformsthatcollectandanalyseclimatedataareemergingasapowerfultooltosafeguardrealestateagainstclimaterisk.Thisdatacanbeusedindecisionmakingtoinformsiteselection,evaluatepropertyvalue,andguideresiliencestrategies.Datacanalsobeutilisedtoimprovepropertyresilience,suchasretrofittingbuildingsto

withstandspecifichazardssuchasextremeheat,strongwindsorflooding.

Therenowexistseveralclimateriskplatformsthathelpfinancialinstitutions,assetmanagers,realestate

companies,andserviceprovidersprice,manage,andidentifyactionstobuildresiliencetoclimaterelatedimpactsonthebuiltenvironment.

physicalclimateriskassessmenttoolssuchasclimatex,whichcBREusesforcorporateoperationsandclient

portfoliosalongwithinsightsfromAIltechnology,incorporatesvariablestofacilitatethecalculationofriskfromlocalhazards,suchascoastalflooding,drought,extremeheat,landslides,stormsandwildfires.Thisenables

sustainabilityspecialiststotranslateclimateriskscenariosandhazardsintoeasy-to-understandinformationthathelpsclientsevaluatelocationsandpinpointpotentialclimaterisks.

Inpracticalterms,thesetoolscanidentifysevereclimateeventsthathappenedinaparticularlocation

informationthatisessentialtowouldbeownersortenants.Theplatformcanusepredictivemodelstoassessthelikelihoodofaclimateextremeeventoccurringinaparticularlocationinthefuture.

usingfloodsasanexample,datainputsandinsightsonaproperty'slocationandcharacteristicslikeinternalandexternalstructureandsurroundingscanhelppropertymanagersidentifywhichpartoftheassetwillbeatriskintheshort,mediumandlongterm.

8

/insights/articles/business

insightshow

-

property

management

-

is

-

building

resilienceto-climate

-

risk

https,///

climateExtremeEventsandRealEstateResilience

8RESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

Thissameanalysiscanbeusedtoidentifymitigationmeasuressuchasprotectingvulnerableequipmentinthe

property'slowerfloors,installingfloodprotectionequipmentaroundthebuildingperimeterandevenchangingwallandfloorcoverings.

sometoolsincludetheabilitytoplanadaptationmeasures,enablingadvisorstohelpclientscalculatecapEXrequirementsandreturnoninvestmentforretrofitsandacquisitionsthatincreaseresilience.

conclusion

climateeventsinAsiapacificposesignificantriskstorealestatethroughdirectpropertydamage,increasedoperationalcosts,andreducedpropertyvaluations.Aproperty'sabilitytomitigatelossesandmaintainvalue

dependonitslocation,design,hardware,anddaymmtommdaymanagement.

attractstrongeroccupierdemandandoutperformtheirlessresilientcounterparts.ownerswhoinvestin

resiliencecangainacompetitiveadvantagebyprotectingtheirpropertiesfromdamageandmaintainingtheirvalueandmarketabilityinthefaceofchangingclimaterisks.

Leadingmmedgetoolsandinsightsfromrealestateexpertscancaptureandanalysedataonclimateriskwillbeessentialforinvestorsandoccupiersseekingtoprotectvalueacrossaproperty'slifecycl