2025中国经济形势分析（英文）

AsiaInsights

GlobalMarketsResearch

8December2025

Economics-Asiaex-Japan

China:ThePolitburosoundedmoreconcernedabouttheeconomy

China'sRulingPartyPolitburoconvenedtodayandissuedamemoafterthemeeting.ThememosetsthetonefortheforthcomingannualCentralEconomicWorkConference

(CEWC),whichwilloutlineBeijing'smacroeconomicpolicyagendafor2026.Thememoreintroduced"counter-cyclical"policyadjustment,whichwasabsentfromthemostrecentPolitburomeetinginJuly2025,signalingBeijing'srenewedconcernsaboutdownward

pressuresontheeconomy.ThisappearstohaveconfirmedouroncecontrarianviewofademandplungeinH2.Thememoalsoreintroduced“tradestruggles”,asBeijingmightbeexpectingrisingtradetensions.However,thepolicytoneappearslesssupportivethanthedecisivepolicypivotinlate2024,asthememodidnotattach“unconventional"tothe“

counter-cyclical”,whilethe“cross-cyclical”policyadjustmentwasalsoreintroduced.

Overall,thememoindicatesthatBeijingmightstepuppolicysupportinthenextcoupleofmonths,butmoredetailswilllikelybeannouncedinMarch2026.Beijingmayintroduce

somesupportivemeasuresforthestilldecliningpropertysector,butmarketsmaylowertheirexpectations,asBeijinghasyettofindmoreeffectivesolutionsthatcanbeexecuteddecisivelytoaddresstherootcausesofthepropertycollapsesince2021.

Thereintroductionof“counter-cyclical”policyadjustment

Althoughthememosaidthatthisyear'smainobjectivesofeconomicandsocial

developmentwillbeachieved,itmentioned"counter-cyclical"policyadjustmentagain,

whichwasomittedfromthemostrecentPolitburomeetinginJuly2025.Thissignals

Beijing'srenewedconcernsaboutdownwardpressuresontheeconomyandits

awarenessthataneconomicrecoveryhasnotyetsolidified.Meanwhile,thememoagaincalledforeffortsto"bettercoordinatedomesticeconomicworkandinternationaleconomicandtradestruggles”,whichwasmentionedattheAprilPolitburomeetingduringthepeakofUS-Chinatarifftensions,butwasdroppedattheJulyPolitburomeetingfollowingthe

significanttariffrollback.ThishighlightsthatBeijingmightbeexpectingrisingtradetensionsnextyear,despitetheone-yearUS-Chinatradetruce.

ButBeijing'sstanceappearslesssupportivethanthedecisivepivotinlate2024

Thisisbecause:First,thePolitburomeetingsinbothDecember2024andApril2025vowedto“strengthenunconventionalcounter-cyclicalpolicyadjustment”,while

“unconventional"wasomittedfromtoday'smemo.

Second,thememomentionedboth“counter-cyclical"and“cross-cyclical”policy

adjustmentforthefirsttimesincetheDecember2023Politburomeeting.Thisisinline

withthePBoC'sQ3MonetaryPolicyReportreleasedon11November,which

reintroducedthe"cross-cyclical"policywording,whichhadbeenabsentsincetheQ12024MPR.

Incontrastwith"counter-cyclical","cross-cyclical"indicatesalowurgencyfornear-termmonetaryeasingmeasures.Consideringthischange,wealreadyalteredthetimingofourforecastfora10bppolicyratecutanda50bpRRRcutfromQ42025toQ22026(see

pages13-20oftheAsiaMacroOutlook2026-Mindthegap,3December2025).WedonotexpectfurthercutstoeitherthepolicyrateortheRRRafterthatin2026.

Althoughthememostateda“moreproactivefiscalpolicy"and“moderately

accommodativemonetarypolicy"wouldbeimplemented,thiswasalsomentionedattheJulyPolitburomeeting.

Lastbutnotleast,thememoneithermentionedcapitalmarketsnorhousingmarkets,asBeijingmightattempttoavoidirrationalexuberanceinstockmarkets,andithasyettofindmoreeffectivesolutionsthatcanbeexecuteddecisivelytoaddresstherootcausesofthepropertycollapsesince2021.

ResearchAnalysts

AsiaEconomics

TingLu-NIHK

ting.lu@+85222521306

JingWang-NIHK

jing.wang@+85222521011

HarringtonZhang-NIHK

harrington.zhang@+85222522057

HannahLiu-NIHK

hannah.liu@+85222521082

ProductionComplete:2025-12-0810:37UTC

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

Nomura|AsiaInsights8December2025

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WhyhasBeijingbeensoslowtostemtheslidein2025?

Withthesharpdeteriorationofmajoreconomicindicatorssincemid-2025,wethinkthatBeijing'soveralleffortssincethesummerof2024havefailedtotrulystabilizeChina's

growth.Innormalyears,Beijingwouldhaverushedtoreacttosuchabroad-basedsharpdecline,butBeijing'sresponsewasdifferentthistime,duetothefollowingmajorfactors.

·First,Beijing'spolicypivot-includingthesurgeinstockpurchasesbystate-controlledfunds-andtherecognitionofChina'sstrengthinhigh-endmanufacturingandartificialintelligencefinallycausedarallyinChina'sstockmarkets.Havingtakenlessonsfromthepainfulboom-bustexperienceof2015,Beijingiskeenlyawarethatthisboom

couldleadtoariseinirrationalexuberance,anincreaseinleverageandtheformationofbubbles,andsoithasbeentreadingcarefully,slowingitsreactionandthe

introductionofexpansionarypolicyonconcernsofstokingalargerstockmarketbubble.

·Second,somepolicymakers,governmentadvisorsandmarketeconomistsbelievethatthestockmarketboomcouldboostcorporatespendingandhousehold

consumption.

·Third,2025isthefinalyearcoveredbythe14thFYPandtheyearusedtopreparethe15thFYP.MostgovernmentagenciesdevotedmuchoftheirtimebeforeNovember

2025discussinganddraftinglonger-termeconomicplansforthenextfiveyears.Duringthisprocess,near-termpolicymakingwassidelinedtoadegree.

·Fourth,thesurprisingresilienceofexportgrowth,at6.6%y-o-yinQ3,mightconvincepolicymakersthatstrongexternaldemandcouldoffsetpartofthedomesticweakness.

·Lastly,Beijinghasalreadyexhausteditseasilyavailablepolicytools.Onstimulatingconsumption,Beijingturnedtothetrade-inprogram,whichhasonlyhadashort-livedimpactondurablegoods.Oncleaningupthedebtmess,itfocusedonswappinglocalgovernmentloansfrombanks,insteadofhandlingthemuchlesstransparentand

complicatedarrearsbetweennon-financialentitiesincludingdevelopers,local

governmentfundingvehicles,constructioncompanies,rawmaterialsuppliersandhomebuyers.Onboostingassetprices,Beijingchosetousegovernment(even

centralbank)moneytorescuestockmarketsratherthandirectingthemtothemuchlargeranddeeplytroubledpropertysector.WhileittooklessthanRMB3.0trnfor

Beijingtobolsterthestockmarkets,itmaystillneedtospendmultipletimesthatamounttostabilizethepropertysector.Consequently,whenitistimetoprovidesupporttotheeconomyinamoresustainablemanner,Beijingmaynotbesowellpreparedafterexhaustingitsmoreeasilyusedtools.

Beijingwilllikelybeunderbiggerpressureinspring2026

WeexpectGDPgrowthtoslowfurtherto4.1%inQ12026from4.3%inQ42025duetotherisingpaybackeffectofthetrade-inprogramandworseningsentimentinthepropertysector.Byspring2026,theslowdownwilllikelyhavebecomepainfulenoughtopush

Beijingtostepupstimulustoarresttheslowdown.

Toeffectivelycopewiththesemountingchallenges,webelieveBeijingneedstotake

bolderactionstocleanupthemessinthepropertysector,supportconsumptioninamoresustainablewaybyreformingthepensionsystem,fixthefiscalsystemtobetterprotect

businessownersandimproveitstraderelationshipswithothereconomies.Still,ittakesalotoftimetoformtheconsensusandgetprepared.Marketswilllikelyhavetobepatientwhenexpectingagenuinetroughingrowthandarealendtodeflation.

Nomura|AsiaInsights8December2025

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AppendixA-1

ThisreporthasbeenproducedbyNomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.(NIHK),HongKong.

SeeDisclaimersforNomuraGroupentitydetails.

AnalystCertification

We,TingLu,JingWang,HaringtonZhangandHannahLiu,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportaccurately

reflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallfthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisResearchreport,(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportand(3)nopartofourcompensationistiedtoanyspecificinvestmentbankingtransactionsperformedbyNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.,NomuraInternationalplcoranyotherNomuraGroupcompany.

ImportantDisclosures

Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interestdisclosures

NomuraGroupresearchisavailableon

/research,Bloomberg,Capital

IQ,Factset,LSEG.

Importantdisclosuresmaybereadathtt:/research/m/DisclosuresorrequestedfromNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.Ifyouhaveanydifficultieswiththewebsite,pleaseemailgrpsupport@forhelp.

Theanalystsresponsibleforpreparingthisreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactorsincludingthefrm'stotalrevenues,aportionofwhichisgeneratedbyInvestmentBankingactiviies.Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedatthefrontofthisreportarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofNSI,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

NomuraGlobalFinancialProductsInc.(NGFP)NomuraDerivativeProductsInc.(NDP)andNomuraInternationalplc.(Nlplc)areregisteredwiththeCommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissionandtheNationalFuturesAssociation(NFA)asswapdealers.NGFP,NDPl,andNlplcare

generallyengagedinthetradingofswapsandotherderivativeproducts,anyofwhichmaybethesubjectofthisreport.

Disclaimers

ThispublicationcontainsmaterialthathasbeenpreparedbytheNomuraGroupentityidentifiedonpage1and,ifapplicable,withthee

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KoreaFinancialInvestmentAssociation('KOFIA')canbefoundontheKOFIAIntranetat

http://dis.kofia.or.kr,(g)NomuraSingaporeLtd.('NSL'),

Singapore

(

Registration

number197201440E,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore)(h)NomuraAustraliaLtd.("NAL'),Australia

(ABN48003032513),regulatedbytheAustralianSecuritiesandInvestmentCommission(ASIC')andholderofanAustralianfinancialserviceslicencenumber246412,(i)NomuraSecuritiesMalaysiaSdn.Bhd.'NSM),Malaysia,()NIHK,TaipeiBranch('NITB'),Taiwan,(k)Nomura

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