2025年生成式AI与经济增长：潜在经济影响测度新径研究报告（英文版）-

Generative

AIand

EconomicGrowth

Anewapproachto

measuring

itspotentialeconomicimpactNovember2025Note:

AssessmentbasedonproductivityestimatesfocusedonGenAIthatcontinuetobechanged,especiallywith

AIagentsbeing

deployed.Contents4.2

What

does

GenAI

mean

for

the

US

Job

Market?

...................................................144.2.1HowwilladoptionofGenAIimpact

employmentforvariouslabor

categories?............................................................................................144.2.2How

will

GenAI

adoption

Impact

Wages.....................................................154.3

What

Industries

are

impacted

the

most

by

GenAI?

...............................................164.4HowwilladoptionofGenAI

impact

laborforce

participationand

unemployment?

................................................................................................164.5

What

are

the

Costs

of

Adopting

GenAI?

.................................................................204.6

What

Investment

Opportunities

does

GenAI

create?............................................214.7

Impact

of

GenAI

on

the

Global

GDP

.......................................................................234.8

How

will

adoption

of

GenAI

Impact

Global

Labor

Markets?................................245.Key

Takeaways.................................................................................................................25Qualifications

of

the

Study................................................................................................26Appendix—A:

Labor

Categories

........................................................................................27Appendix—B:Tables

and

Figures

.....................................................................................29ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................31.Background........................................................................................................................51.1

Beyond

the

Hype:The

Imperative

behind

the

GenAI

Impact

Study

...........................62.ChartingtheCourse:Insightsfrom

PastStudiesonGenAI’s

Impact..........................73.TheGenAI

Effect:Our

Analytical

Framework.................................................................93.1

KPMG

dynamic

economywide

model

......................................................................93.2

TheCGE

Database......................................................................................................93.3Our

Scenario

Design

and

Implementation..............................................................103.3.1

Baseline

or

Business-As-Usual

Scenario

......................................................103.3.2

Rapid

Adoption

of

GenAI

...............................................................................113.3.3Slow

Adoption

of

GenAI.................................................................................113.3.4

Rapid

Adoption

of

GenAI

without

Up-Skilling

..............................................114.Our

FindingsandInsights..............................................................................................124.1

Impact

on

the

US

Gross

Domestic

Product(GDP)................................................

12Note,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerative

AI

and

Economic

Growth

2updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1AGenerative

AI(GenAI)andagentic

AIarepoisedto

revolutionizeglobal

economies

andemploymentlandscapes.Inthepastfewyears,we’vewitnessedthelaunch

of

large

language

models,whichhavegrowninsophisticationandcapabilities.They’vescored

higheron

avarietyoftests,advancedfromtext-basedanswerstovoice,design,andvideo.

Thisyear,the

generative

AIhypehasshiftedtoagentic

AI,whichshiftsfromansweringquestionsor

creating

contenttocompletingtaskswithvariouslevelsofsophistication.Withsomuchchangingalmosteverymonth,thisstudydevelops

a

novel

methodforunderstandingthepotentialimpactsofGenAIadoptionin

our

economy,

across

industries,

and

withinjobroles.Thestudyemploysadynamicglobaleconomy-widemodel,specificallythe

KPMG

dynamic

economywidemodel,whichisacomputablegeneralequilibrium

(CGE)

model.

This

modelcapturesinter-industry

linkages,disaggregates

UShouseholdsby

incomeand

race,

andconnectstheeconomyglobally.

Themodelusesthemost

recent

GlobalTrade

Analysis

Project

(GTAP)database,widelyuseddataforeconomywidemodels.Importantly,thestudyincorporateslaborproductivityestimatesattheindustryandsectorlevel

andwithinjobrolesderivedfromtheKPMGpatent-pendingGenAIvalueassessmentmodel.GenAIvalueassessmentisanadvancedtechnologicalservicethatoffersclientsa

qualitative,

outside-inassessmentofGenAIopportunitiesandthereadinessof

atarget

organization.ThisassessmentevaluatestheachievableGenAIopportunitythatanorganizationcanpotentiallycapturethroughinvestmentsinGenAI,andit

also

identifies

peer

benchmarks

forcomparativeanalysis.Forthisstudy,weaggregatedtheGenAIopportunityvaluesbyjobroleand

bythe

NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)industry.

Furthermore,

based

on

location

of

theopportunityvalues,theindustriesaremappedto

10globalregions.Thismappingallowsustoaccuratelyassessthepotential

economic

benefits

of

GenAIimplementationforspecificskillgroupswithinanindustry,suchasfinanceprofessionals

inthe

chemicalsindustryorhumanresourcespersonnel

inthe

pharmaceutical

products

industry.Leveragingproductivityestimatesfromlastyearthatfocusongenerative

AI—notagentic

AI—

thisstudyevaluatesthepotentialof

AIimpactsonoureconomy

usingthis

novel

approachto

informpolicy,businessstrategy,andworkforcedevelopment.Threescenarioswereanalyzed:abaselinescenariowithoutGenAIadoption,

a

rapid

adoption

scenario,andaslowadoptionscenario,toprojecteconomic

impactsfrom2024through

2050.

Inaddition,arapidadoptionscenariowithoutupskillingof

laborforcewasalso

examined.Toillustratehowfindingsmayevolveovertime

as

large

language

models

and

AI

agents

alterexpectedproductivityimpacts,we’vealsoincludedan

analysis

of

a

hypothetical

high

productivityscenariowithrapidadoption.Importantly,productivityestimateshavechangedandwillcontinuetochangewithsignificantuncertainty

today

as

innovation

continues

to

define

the

artificial

intelligence

space.

As

largelanguagemodelsevolve,wewillcontinuetoevaluatehowchangesintheproductivitybenefits

derivedfrombothGenAIandagentic

AIadoptionchangeoureconomy.Executive

SummaryNote,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerative

AI

and

Economic

Growth

3updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1A4

InvestmentOpportunitiesBothrapidandslowadoptionofGenAIcreate

considerable

investment

opportunities.

Rapid

adoptionoffersgainsininvestmentmultipliereffect

across

mostsectors

comparedto

slow

adoption.Sectorssuchaseducation,healthcare,andtransportationshowthe

highestgains

fromearlyandextensiveimplementationof

GenAI.Thisstudyshowcasesthevalueofanewframeworkforevaluatingtheimpactofgenerative

andagenticAIonoureconomy.

Thestudyunderscoresthetransformativepotentialof

GenAI

indrivingeconomicgrowth,creatingnewjobopportunities,andenhancingproductivity.However,italsohighlightsthecriticalimportanceof

upskillingand

reskillingtheworkforce

tofullyleveragethebenefitsofGenAIandensure

equitable

distribution

of

its

advantages.Strategicinvestmentsintrainingandinfrastructurearecrucialto

maximizetheeconomic

gains

fromGenAI.Policymakersandstakeholdersmustfocuson

creating

informed

policiesthataddressjobdisplacement,incomeinequality,andtheneedfornew

educational

andtraining

programstofosteraninclusiveandsustainableeconomicfuture.Goingforward,thismodelwillhelpusbetterunderstandthe

economic

implications

of

AI

as

it

changesoureconomy.EconomicGrowthEmployment1Ourbaselinescenariousingproductivityestimates

in2024findsthat

rapid

adoption

of

GenAIcould

add

up

to$2.84trillion

to

the

US

GDP

by2030,

and$3.37trillion

by2050.

Globally,theeconomy

could

see

an

additional

growth

of$11.04trillion

by

2050

under

rapid

adoption,

and$9.83trillionunderslowadoption.

TheUSandEurope

are

projectedto

gainthe

most,with$3.38trillion

and$2.72

trillion

respectively

by

2050.2Rapid

GenAI

adoption

is

expected

to

create

a

net

gain

of

8.06

million

jobs

in

the

US

by

2050,

whilesloweradoptioncouldresultin5.79

million

newjobs.However,

rapid

adoption

of

GenAI

withoutupskilling,couldresultin

netjobloss

of

about

a

million

by

2050.

Key

sectors

such

as

education,healthcare,andgovernmentareexpectedtoseemajorjob

growth.3Unemployment

RateTherapidadoptionofGenAIis

projectedto

result

ina

marginal

increase

in

unemployment

rateof0.15%compared

to

the

baseline

in2050.In

contrast,without

upskilling,the

rapid

adoptionscenarioshowsa

notableincreaseintheunemployment

rateto5.55%,with

a

net

increase

of0.51%

relative

to

baseline.Key

FindingsNote,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerative

AI

and

Economic

Growth

4updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1AGenerative

AIParadigmShift:Shapingthe

FutureofGlobal

Economiesand

Employment1.

BackgroundInthespanofjustthepastcoupleofyears,Generative

AI(GenAI)

has

moved

rapidlyfrom

pilot

trialstowidespreadadoption.ConsumersadoptedGenAI,suchasOpenAI’s

ChatGPT

project,

attwicetherateoftabletsandsmartphones.1

AndGenAIisalready

having

an

increasingimpactonthewayorganizationsdobusiness.It’sraretofind

an

enterprisetodaythat

doesn’thave

its

foot

on

the

GenAI

accelerator.

According

to

a

Q4

2024

KPMG

AI

Pulse

Survey,

68%

ofleaders

will

invest

between$50-$250million

in

GenAI

over

the

next

12

months,

up

from45%

inQ1of2024(KPMG,2025).2

The

Q22025

KPMGAI

Pulse

Survey

found

that90%

of

organizationswerepassedexperimentingwithagentic

AIandwerenowpilotingand

deploying.3Thestudyunderscoresthetransformativepotentialof

AIandthepaceof

innovation.GenAIisasubsetofartificialintelligencethat

relieson

generative

modelsthat

learnfromexistingdataandpatternstocreatenewcontent,

includingtext,

images,audio,

andvideo.

It

combinestechnologyanddatatodriveinnovationwithgreatspeedandefficiency—and

has

far-reachingimplicationsforhowworkgetsdoneinthefuture.GenAI

is

already

impactingtheworkforce,with66%ofCEOssurveyedexpectingthattheimplementationofGenAIwould

requirebothhiringnewtalent,aswellastrainingexistingtalent.

GenAItechnologies,which

includeadvancedmachinelearningmodelscapable

of

generatingtext,

images,

and

othermedia,arepoisedtorevolutionizevarioussectorsbyenhancing

productivity,

creating

new

jobopportunities,anddrivinginnovation.However,understandingthese

impacts

requires

anuancedanalysistoensurethatthebenefitsaremaximizedwhile

mitigating

potentialdownsidessuchasjobdisplacementandeconomicinequality.Globally,theeconomicimpactofGenAIextendsbeyond

national

borders,

influencinginternationaltrade,labormarkets,andeconomicpolicies.Countrieswith

robusttechnological

infrastructuresandpoliciesthatsupportinnovationarelikelyto

benefitthemost,

potentially

wideningtheeconomicgapbetweendevelopedanddeveloping

nations(Capraro

et

al.,2024).4

GenAI’seconomicimplicationsareparticularlycrucial

inthe

US,

giventhecountry’sleadingroleintechnologicalinnovationandits

diverse

economy.

These

advancements

alsonecessitateacarefulexaminationofworkforcedynamics,asautomationmay

displace

certain

jobcategorieswhilecreatingdemandfornewskills(Hosseiniet

al.

2024).5DespitetherapidinvestmentinGenAI,the

researchonthe

economic

implications

of

GenAIisstillinanascentstage.Initialfindings

indicate

substantial

potential

effects

on

productivity,

employment,andinequality(Acemogluetal.2022).6

However,thespecifics

ofwhere,

howandbywhomtheeconomicimpactsofGenAIwillbefeltare

notwell-understood.

By

studying

theseimpacts,policymakersandstakeholderscanbetter

navigatethe

complexities

of

GenAI,

fosteringaninclusiveandsustainableeconomicfuture.Nexus,3(6):191.Retrieved

from:https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae1915

Hosseini,

M.;S.P.J.M.Horbach,

K.Holmes,&T.

Ross-Hellauer(2024).

“Open

Science

at

the

Generative

AITurn:

An

Exploratory

Analysisof

Challenges

and

Opportunities.”Quantitative

Science

Studies(Advance

Publication),

Retrieved

from:https://doi.org/10.1162/qss_a_003376

Acemoglu,

D.;

D.

Autor,J.

Hazell,&

P.

Restrepo(2022).“AI

and

Jobs:Evidence

from

Online

Vacancies.”

NBER

Working

Paper

28257,National

Bureau

of

Economic

Research,(NBER)Cambridge,MA.Retrieved

from:

http://www.nber.org/papers/w282571

Sara

Lebow,“Generative

AI

Adoption

Climbed

FasterThan

Smartphones,Tablets,”eMarketer(August

11,2023)2

KPMG(2025a).“AI

Quarterly

Pulse

Survey.”Retrieved

from:https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2025/ai-quarterly-pulse-survey.html3

KPMG(2025b).“AI

Quarterly

Pulse

Survey.”Retrieved

from:https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2025/ai-quarterly-pulse-

survey-q2.pdf4

Capraro,

V.etal.(2024).“Theimpactofgenerativeartificial

intelligence

onsocioeconomic

inequalities

and

policy

making,”

PNAS©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1ANote,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobe

updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.GenerativeAIand

EconomicGrowth5

1.1BeyondtheHype:TheImperativebehindtheGenAIImpactStudyInanerawheretechnologicaladvancementsarerapidlyreshapingourworld,

understanding

theprofoundimplicationsofGenAIis

morecriticalthan

ever.

While

GenAI

continuestoevolve,expandingthepotentialdisruptionsandchangestotheworkforce,thisstudyfocusesspecificallyontheimpactofproductivityasa

key

metric

because

of

its

prominence.Productivitygainsarejustoneaspectofthebroadersetof

disruptions

and

changesthat

GenAI

bringstotheworkforce.

TheinsightsfromthisstudyarebasedonGenAIimpacts,

althoughtherapidemergenceofartificialgeneralintelligence

(AGI)could

soon

altertheworkforce

and

productivitydynamics.7

Thisresearchaimstoprovideacomprehensiveanalysisthat

informs

policy,businessstrategy,workforcedevelopment,andeconomicequity.Understandingthese

impactsiscrucialforseveral

reasons:Strategic

Edge—howGenAIisrevolutionizingbusinessdecisions:

For

businesses,understandingtheeconomicimpactofGenAIcaninformstrategic

decisions

regardinginvestment,workforcedevelopment,andcompetitivepositioning.CompaniesthatcaneffectivelyleverageGenAIarelikelytogainsignificant

competitive

advantages.

There

areconsiderableopportunitycosts.

Theriskoffallingbehindothersand

losingtrust

inyourability

toinnovateisrealandsignificant.

Fastfolloweradvantage

continuesto

erode.

It

may

betoo

hardtocatchup,whichiswhyorganizationsareinvestingwithoutthetraditional

ROIcase.Shaping

Tomorrow—thecriticalroleofGenAIin

policy

making:

Governments

andpolicymakersneedtounderstandtheeconomicimplicationsofGenAItocreate

informed

policiesthatbalanceinnovationwithsafetyandsecurity.

Thisincludes

addressing

issues

suchasjobdisplacement,incomeinequality,andtheneedfor

new

educational

andtrainingprograms.Bridging

the

Gap—ensuring

economic

equity

in

the

age

of

GenAI:The

distributionalimpactsofGenAIcouldexacerbateexistinginequalitiesor

create

new

ones.

Studyingtheseeffectscanhelpensurethatthebenefitsof

GenAI

are

broadly

shared

across

different

communitiesanddemographicgroups.Future-ProofingCareers—theessentialskillsforaGenAI-drivenworld:As

GenAItransformsindustries,therewillbeagrowingneedfor

newskillsand

roles.

Identifying

thesechangesearlycanhelpeducationalinstitutionsandtraining

programs

adaptto

preparethefutureworkforce.7

ThestudyprimarilyconsidersGenAIasunderstoodby

large

language

models

(LLMs)

atthetime,withoutagenticcapabilities.

As

agenticcapabilitiesadvance,theyhavethepotentialtoaccelerateorshiftthesedynamicsconsiderably.Note,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerative

AI

and

Economic

Growth

6updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1A

2.

Charting

the

Course

Insightsfrom

PastStudiesonGenAI’s

ImpactGenAI,hasemergedasatransformativetechnologywithsignificanteconomicimplications.

Theliteratureextensivelyexploresitsimpact

on

productivity

and

labor

markets.

For

instance,

BrynjolfssonandLi(2024)foundthatgenerative

AItoolscansignificantlyenhanceworkerproductivity,especiallyintechnicalcustomersupportroles,witha

notable

14%

increase.Theseproductivitygainsaremostpronouncedamong

less

experienced

customer

support

workers,highlightingthepotentialof

AItoleveltheplayingfieldin

certainjobsectors.However,theimpactonlabormarkets

iscomplex,

as

generative

AI

can

create

newjobopportunitiesandenhanceexistingroleswhilealsoposing

risksofjobdisplacement.

Thebenefitstendtofavorhigher-skilledworkersandlargerfirms,leadingtounevendistribution

acrosstheworkforce.

ThesocioeconomicimplicationsofGenAIareequallyprofound.

WhileAIhasthepotentialtodemocratizeaccesstoinformationand

improve

productivity,

it

can

also

exacerbateexistinginequalities.KPMGconductedastudywiththe

WorldEconomic

Forum(WEF)whichprovides

acomprehensiveframeworkforunderstanding

AI’simpactoneconomiesandsocieties.8Theframeworkemphasizes

AI’stransformativepotentialindrivingeconomicgrowthandinnovation,provideditisdevelopedresponsibly

and

equitably.

The

blueprint

highlightstheimportanceofbuildingsustainable

AIinfrastructure,curatinghigh-qualitydatasets,

andestablishingethicalframeworks.

Thestudyadvocatesforacollaborativeapproachinvolving

governments,enterprises,academia,andcivilsocietytoensureinclusive

AIdevelopment,therebymaximizingbenefitsforall.Nationsfaceunique

challenges

infully

leveraging

AI’sbenefitsduetovariousfactors.

Thesechallengesincludesecuringthesubstantialinvestment

neededforadvancing

AIinnovationandaddressingsignificantgapsindigital

infrastructure,

whichexacerbatestheexistingdigitaldivide.Inthiscontext,the

WEFframeworkunderscores

theneedforbuildingresilientnational

AIecosystems

and

promotingwidespread

adoption

of

AI,whichrequirescoordinatedmultistakeholderaction.

Thestudyalsoemphasizesthe

need

forinternationalcollaborationtofacilitateglobaltradeandsecurecross-borderdataflows,promotingthedevelopmentofinclusive

AImodelsandapplications.Recentliteraturesurveyrevealsthateffectivepolicymaking

is

crucialto

harnessthe

benefitsof

AIwhilemitigatingitsadverseeffects.

Theliterature

underscoresthe

needforinterdisciplinary

approachesandrobustpolicyframeworkstoaddressthesechallenges,ensuringthattheadvantagesof

AIaremoreequitably

distributed.TheliteratureoneconomicimpactofGenAIspans

several

dimensions,

including

productivity,

labormarkets,industry-specificimpacts,andbroader

economic

growth.

A

briefsurvey

ofliterature

is

listed

inTable2.1.8

WorldEconomicForum(2025)“BlueprintforIntelligentEconomies:

AI

Competitivenessthrough

Regional

Collaboration.”

IncollaborationwithKPMG.Retrievedfrom:/docs/WEF_A_Blueprint_for_Intelligent_Economies_2025.pdfNote,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerative

AI

and

Economic

Growth

7updatedasgenerative

AIandagentic

AIuse

expand.©2025

KPMG

L

LP,a

Delawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipanda

memberfirm

ofthe

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

memberfirms

affiliatedwith

KPMG

International

Limited,aprivate

Englishcompanylimitedbyguarantee

.Allrights

reserved.

USCS032700

-1AStudyKey

Economic

FindingSector/Focus

AreaBrynjolfsson&

McAfee

(2017)9Productivity

increase

by

up

to

40%CreativeindustriesAcemoglu&

Restrepo(2022)10Displacement

of

up

to

15%of

jobs;

creationof

new

rolesLabor

marketGoldfarb&Tucker

(2019)11Cost

reduction

by30%;targetingefficiency

increase

by

25%AdvertisingAgrawal,Gans,&

Goldfarb

(2018)12Additional

1.2%annual

GDP

growthBroadereconomyBessen,J.

(2022)13Netpositivejobcreation

in

AI-intensivesectorsVarioussectorsCockburn,

I.,

Henderson,

R.,&Stern,

S.

(2018)14Acceleratedinnovationcyclesand

increasedR&D

productivityTechnology

and

R&DKaplan,A.,&

Haenlein,

M.EnhancedcustomerengagementandRetailandcustomer(2019)15personalizationserviceBrynjolfsson

and

Li(2024)16A14%increase

in

productivityTechnicalcustomer

support

rolesCapraroet

al.

(2024)Improvementinproductivity,

but

couldwidenthedigitaldivideand

deepenexistinginequalitiesEducationandhealthcare9

Brynjolfsson,E.,&McAfee,

A.(2017).“The

Business

of

Artificial

Intelligence:

What

it

Can—and

Cannot—Do

forYour

Organization.”Harvard

Business

Review.Retrieved

from:https://hbr.org/2017/07/the-business-of-artificial-intelligence10

Acemoglu,D.,&Restrepo,P.

(2022).“Artificial

Intelligence,

Automation,&

Work.”Journal

of

Economic

Perspectives,

36(2):119-140.11

Goldfarb,

A.,&Tucker,C.(2019).“Digital

Economics.”Journal

of

Economic

Literature,57(1),3-43.12

Agrawal,

A.,Gans,J.,&Goldfarb,

A.(2018).*Prediction

Machines:The

Simple

Economics

of

Artificial

Intelligence*.Harvard

BusinessReview

Press.13

Bessen,J.(2022).*AI

and

Jobs:The

Role

of

Demand*.

National

Bureau

of

Economic

Research.

Working

Paper

No.24235.DOI:

10.3386/w24235.Whilethereisagrowingbodyof

researchon

GenAI,

several

gaps

remain

such

as

estimating

productivitygainsacrossallsectorsandregionsfromadoptionof

GenAI,

linking

sector-specificimpactswiththatofoveralleconomy,impact