波兰能源展望报告-2026及以后（英文版）-Arthur D. Little理特咨询

2025

POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK,2026&BEYOND

Securingstabilityasthe

greentransitionaccelerates

2

CONTENT

EXECUTIVESUMMARY3

1.POLISHPOWERMIXEVOLUTION6

2.NATURALGASASCRITICAL

TRANSITIONFUEL14

3.NUCLEARPOWERASALONG-TERM

STABILITYGUARANTEE20

4.FINANCINGTHEENERGYTRANSITION26

CONCLUSION—WHYAFFORDABLE&

RELIABLEENERGYMUSTCOMEFIRST30

WOJCIECHŚWIERCZ

Partner,GrowthWarsaw

GRZEGORZKACZOR

Partner,Energy,Utilities&ResourcesWarsaw

MIKOŁAJMATUSZKO

Principal,GrowthWarsaw

KAMILMOSKWIK

SeniorAdvisorWarsaw

PIOTRĆWIEK

Consultant,GrowthWarsaw

Wewouldliketoacknowledgeallthosewhocontributedinthereviewofthisreport,especially:BartoszKowal,JakubBłądek,WiktorJankowski,andJakubKlicki.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

3

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Polandstandsatacriticaljunctureinitsenergy

transition,drivenbytheurgentneedtoreplacecoal-dependentgenerationwhilemeetingrapidlygrowingelectricitydemand.The2022energycrisis,whichsawPolishelectricitypricespeakat€270/MWh,starkly

illustratedtheeconomicrisksofrelyingoncarbon-

intensiveenergysources,asEUcarbonpricescontinuetheirupwardtrajectorytoward€130/tCO2by2030.

Thecountryfacesanunprecedentedelectrification

wave,withnetelectricityconsumptionprojectedto

surgefrom154terawatthours(TWh)in2024to210-

230TWhby2040—a1.9%-2.5%annualgrowthrate

drivenprimarilybytransportelectrification,heat

pumpadoption,industrialautomation,anddigital

infrastructureexpansion.ThisfundamentallyreshapesPoland,senergyrequirementsandunderscoresthe

inadequacyofthecurrentcoal-dominatedmix,

whichmakesPoland,selectricitysystemtheEU,s

mostcarbon-intensive,at666gramscarbondioxideequivalent(CO2e)/kWh.

STRATEGICPATHWAYS&GENERATIONMIX

Asdescribedinthisreport,Poland,senergyfuture

centersonthreepotentialscenarioswithdifferent

nucleardeploymenttimelines.Allthreescenarios

featurerenewablesasthedominantsourceby2040,accountingforover70%ofinstalledcapacity.Naturalgasemergesasthecriticalbridgefuel,peaking

around2030beforegraduallydecliningasnuclear

andrenewablecapacityexpands.Thechoicebetweenaccelerated,delayed,orplannednuclearrolloutwillsignificantlyshapethecountry,senergysecurity,

pricecompetitiveness,andclimatecommitments.

4

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK,2026&BEYOND

INFRASTRUCTURECHALLENGES

Poland,sgridinfrastructure,designedforcentralizedfossil-fuelgeneration,struggleswithrenewable

integration.Toputthescaleoftheproblemin

perspective,in2024,connectionrequestsfor74

GWoftheoreticalcapacityweredeclined—morethantheentirePolishsystem,scapacityof72GW.

Thegrowingmismatchbetweenrenewableenergy

productionandconsumptioncreatescostlyperiods

whenexcesscleanenergymustbewastedandperiodswhenrenewableoutputisdangerouslylow,forcing

dramaticpricespikes.PolandtransmissionsystemoperatorPolskieSieciElektroenergetyczne,s(PSE,s)€15billiongridinvestmentplanthrough2034aimstoaddressthesechallenges.

NATURALGAS&NUCLEARPOWER

Naturalgasprovidesessentialoperationalflexibility,withfive-to10-minutestart-uptimescomparedto

coal,s80-150minutes,makingitindispensablefor

managingrenewableenergy,svariability.Cruciallyforenergysecurity,Polandhassuccessfullydiversified

awayfromRussiansuppliesthroughliquifiednatural

gas(LNG)terminalsandtheBalticPipeconnectionto

Norway.Gasusageinelectricitygenerationisexpectedtopeakaround2030,representing10%-30%ofthe

electricitygenerationmix,beforegraduallydecliningasnuclearandrenewablecapacityexpands.However,regulatoryuncertaintythreatensinvestmentingasinfrastructurepreciselywhen3.2GWofnewcapacityisunderconstruction.

Withcoalplantsclosingandelectricitydemandrising,PSEwarnsofpotentialsupplyshortagestotalingupto50hoursby2027.Nuclearenergyrepresentsthe

mostdependablelong-termsolutionforprovidingthecontinuous,weather-independentpowerneededtofillthisgap.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

5

ThePolishNuclearEnergyProgram(PNEP)plansto

deploy6-9GWthroughtwomajorplants,withthefirstscheduledtobeginconstructionin2028andenter

servicein2036-2038.However,financingthefirstplantpresentssignificantcomplexity,withthe€45billion

projectrequiring€14billioninstateequityand€31

billioninprivatedebt,alongsidecriticalEUapproval

foraguaranteedpricemechanism.Withoutreliable

long-termrevenuecontracts,nuclearplantsrisk

operatingbeloweconomicallyviablelevels,potentiallyunderminingtheentireinvestmentcase.

Polandisalsoexploringsmallmodularreactors(SMRs)asacomplementarytechnologyfordistrictheating

andindustrialapplications,thoughonlytwounitsarecurrentlyoperationalworldwide,andthetechnologyisstillinearlydevelopment.

FINANCINGREQUIREMENTS

The€650-€670billioninvestmentrequirementfor

2025-2040exceedsavailabledomesticfinancing

capacity,withPolishbankscapableofprovidingonly€60-€95billionby2030.Generationclaims35%of

totalspending,dominatedbyrenewableexpansion

andnucleardevelopment.However,systemintegrationcosts—oftenoverlookedinstandardanalyses—morethandoublethetruecostofrenewablegeneration,

emphasizingtheneedforbalancedtechnologyportfolios.

Successdemandscoordinatedactioninvolvingstate-ledinvestment-supportmechanisms,enhancedprivatesectorengagementthroughimprovedregulatory

frameworks,innovativefinancingmodels,and

internationalpartnershipstobridgefundinggaps.

Withoutcomprehensivefinancingsolutions,Polandrisksfallingshortofitsenergytransitiongoals,underminingeconomiccompetitiveness,energysecurity,andclimatecommitmentsatatimewhenthewindowforactionis

rapidlynarrowing.

2026&BEYOND

,

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK

6

ARTHURD.LITTLE

7

2026&BEYOND

,

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK

8

1.POLISHPOWERMIXEVOLUTION

The2022energypricecrisisservesasastark

reminderofelectricity’sfundamentalrolein

moderneconomies.WhenEurope’saverage

day-aheadelectricitypricesrocketedfrom

roughly€100/MWhto€235/MWh,thesurgesentshockwavesthroughbusinessesandhouseholdsalike,imposingsevereeconomicconstraints

thatnogovernmentcouldignore.InPoland,

wherepricespeakedat€270/MWhinAugust2022,energycostssuddenlydominatedpublicdiscourseandbecameasignificantdriverofinflation,underminingthecountry’seconomiccompetitiveness

.1

Thiscrisishasfundamentallyreshuffledglobalenergypolicypriorities.Governmentsworldwidearenowprioritizingsecure,affordable,

andreliableenergysources,withenergy

independenceandeconomiccompetitiveness

increasinglytakingprecedenceoverthe

primarilyenvironmentalmotivationsthathad

previouslydriventheenergytransitionnarrative.

TheUSexemplifiesthisshift,withPresident

DonaldTrumpannouncingambitiousplans

to“re-establishtheUSasthegloballeader

innuclearenergy,”targetinganexpansionfrom100GWto400GWofnuclearcapacityby2050.

2

Theadministrationaimstodevelop10new

largereactorsby2030whilerecommissioning

closedfacilities,withthePalisadesNuclear

PowerPlantalreadyscheduledtorestartby

theendof2025.Similarly,Europeancountries

arereevaluatingtheirnuclearstrategiesand

investingsubstantiallyinrenewableenergy,

positioningnuclearandrenewablesascentral

componentsofacleanenergymixthatbalancesintermittentandstablesources.

DRIVERSOFRISING

ELECTRICITYDEMAND

Polandstandsatthethresholdofadramatic

transformationinelectricitydemand.AccordingtoPSE’slatestforecasting,

3

thecountry’snet

electricityconsumptionisexpectedtosurgefromapproximately154TWhin2024toaround210-230TWhby2040—aCAGRof1.9%-2.5%thatsignificantlyexceedsthemodest0.6%

growthobservedsince1990(seeFigure1).

Figure1.Netpowerdemand,2024–2040F

210-230

(TWh)

194-208

175-182

154

2030F

2035F

2040F

2024

Source:ArthurD.Little,PSE

ARTHURD.LITTLE

9

Traditionalindustrialexpansionaloneis

notdrivingtheacceleration.Electrification

willaccountforabout90%ofincreased

demand,fundamentallyreshapinghowPolandpowersitseconomy.Thetransportsectoris

experiencingsimultaneoustransformation

acrosspersonalmobility,publictransport,

andlogistics,withelectricvehicles(EVs)leadingthecharge.Meanwhile,residentialandindustrialsectorsaredrivingelectricitydemandgrowth

throughwidespreadadoptionofelectricheatingandcoolingsolutions,particularlyheatpumps.

Theprojectionof210TWhby2040represents

onepossiblescenario;however,depending

onthepaceofelectrificationintransport

andheating,aswellasthedevelopmentof

thehydrogeneconomy,demandcouldbe

significantlyhigher.Whatremainscrucialistherapiddeploymentofnewgenerationcapacity—particularlyfromrenewables—tomeetgrowingneedsandmitigatetheriskofenergyshortages.

SzymonKowalski,

VP,PolishWindEnergyAssociation

Industrialdemandfacesadditionalpressures

fromincreasedautomationandelectrification

ofproductionprocesses,whiletherapid

proliferationofdigitalinfrastructure,especiallydatacenters,contributessubstantiallytodemandgrowth.Thisdigitalrevolutionrequiresever-

increasingcomputingpower,creatingentirelynewcategoriesofelectricityconsumption.

Thetransformationextendswellbeyond2040.

Poland’songoingeconomicconvergence

towardwealthierEUpeerswilldrivesustainedconsumptiongrowth,withprojectedpercapitaelectricityconsumptionrisingfromthecurrent~4MWhto~6MWhby2040,comparedtoan

anticipatedEUaverageof~8MWh.

4

Furtherdigitalizationoftheeconomywillonly

acceleratethistrend.

CAPACITY&GENERATIONMIXOUTLOOK

Meetingthisrisingdemandwhilecomplying

withEUdecarbonizationcommitmentspresentsPolandwithanunprecedentedchallenge.The

countryhascommittedtoreducinggreenhousegasemissionsby53.9%by2030comparedto

1990levelsandachievingnetzeroby2050,inlinewithbroaderEUtargets.

5

Thecurrentenergymixtellsastarkstory.As

of2024,electricitygenerationcontributed

approximately50%ofPoland’semissions,withcoalaccountingforroughly56%oftheenergygenerationmix.ThismakesPolandthemost

carbon-intensiveenergysectorintheEU,with

emissionsof666gramsCO2e/kWhcompared

totheEuropeanaverageof251gramsCO2e/kWh(seeFigure2).

Figure2.Powergenerationandcarbonintensityacrossone-hourintervalsofselectedEuropeancountries,2024

Carbonintensity(gCO2/kWh)

750

500

250

0

Pola

nd

Germa

CzechR

ep.

ny

Belgium

Den

mark

Italy

Spain

Finl

andSw

eden

Franc

e

020,00040,00060,00080,000

Averagepower-generationcapacity(MW)

Source:ArthurD.Little,ENTSO-E,EuropeanCommission,EuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA)

2026&BEYOND

,

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK

10

POLANDHASMADE

SIGNIFICANTSTRIDES

INRENEWABLECAPACITYINSTALLATION

TherisingcostsoftheEUEmissionsTrading

Scheme(ETS)—essentiallyacarbontax—haveintensifiedthepressure.ETSpricessoaredfromabout€25pertonofCO2in2020toover€80

pertonin2022–2023,

6

andtheyareprojected

toreachapproximately€130by2030,accordingtoArthurD.Little(ADL)analysis.Thistrajectorymakescontinuedrelianceoncoalincreasinglyuneconomicalandposessubstantialrisksto

Poland’scompetitiveness.

Thetransitiontolow-andzero-emissionfuelsemergesasthekeytoreducingmedium-

termenergypricesandimprovingeconomic

competitiveness.Whilefossilfuelscanbe

importedcheaply,theescalatingcostofEU

ETSallowancesmakesfossil-basedgenerationeconomicallyunsustainable.

Polandhasmadesignificantstridesinrenewablecapacityinstallation,reaching31.8GWbytheendof2024,representingabout44%oftotalinstalledcapacity(seeFigure3).However,thesignificantlylowerloadfactors(actualoutputcomparedto

maximumpotential)ofrenewablesourcesmeanthatelectricitygeneratedfromrenewables

accountedforonly25%oftotalsupplyin

2024,7

highlightingthegapbetweeninstalledcapacityandactualgeneration.

Poland,senergytransitionwillbeaprocessof

unprecedentedinvestmentscale,requiringa

profoundrestructuringofthesystemandnew

approachestoenergysecurity.Renewableenergysources—withtheirlowgenerationcostsand

shortinvestmentcycles—willplayapivotal

roleinthistransformation.However,duetotheirvariablenature,theycannotserveasthesole

foundationofthesystem.Stabletechnologiessuchasmoderngas–firedpowerandnuclearenergywillbeessentialtoensuresupply

continuity[while]balancingflexibility.

RemigiuszNowakowski,ExecutiveVP&ManagingDirector,QairPolska

3SCENARIOS

FORTHEFUTURE

Lookingaheadto2040,threepotentialscenariosemergeforPoland’spower

capacityevolution(seeFigure4):

-Case1—assumesnuclearcapacitydevelopsinlinewithPSE’sresource-adequacyassessment,withone1.1GWnuclearunitcommissioned

everytwoyearsfrom2036.Intermittent

renewableenergysourcesandenergystoragesystemsexpandatasomewhatslowerrate

thanPSE’scurrentprojections.Gascapacitydevelopssteadily.

-Case2—assumessignificantdelaysin

nucleardeployment,withonlyone1.1GW

unitcommissionedduringtheforecast

period.Renewableenergyandenergystoragedeploymentsacceleratetocompensate.

Figure3.Installedcapacity,2024E–2040F

136

(GW)

1%

12%

111

1%

94

11%

28%

2%

8%

72

25%

2%

23%

2%

15%

34%

30%

11%

20%

7%

29%

8%

34%

10%

34%

3%

10%

5%

7%

10%

11%

7%

2024E2030F2035F2040F

Combinedheat/power(CHP)Coal(hard+lignite)NaturalgasNuclearSolarWindStorageOtherSource:ArthurD.Little,PSE,NationalEnergyandClimatePlan(NECP),PolishNuclearEnergyProgram(PNEP)

ARTHURD.LITTLE

11

RenewablesalignwithPSE’sprojections,whilestorageexceedsthem.Gascapacitydevelopssteadily.

-Case3—assumesrapidexpansionofnuclearcapacity,surpassingPSE’scurrentplan.

Renewableenergysourcesandenergystoragesystemsgrowattheslowestrateamongthe

scenarios.Gascapacitydevelopssteadily.

Allcasesassumethesamepowerconsumption

withdifferencesdrivenbyinvestmentlevels

andexpectedloadfactors.Despitethesevaryingpathways,renewablesandstoragewillbecomePoland’sprimarypowersourceinallscenarios,

accountingforapproximately70%-80%of

totalinstalledcapacityby2040.Consequently,

renewableenergysourcesareprojectedtosupplyaround50%ofelectricityby2035,followedby

moderategrowthinsubsequentyears.Inall

scenarios,increasedintegrationofrenewables

intoPoland’senergysystemappearshighlylikely,despiterecentchallengessuchasthepresidentialvetoofupdatedonshorewindregulationsin

August2025.

8

Naturalgasemergesasaflexibleandcritical

transitionfuel,expectedtoreachitsmaximumshareinthepowermixaround2030,before

graduallydecliningasrenewableandnuclear

capacityexpands.Beyond2040,anticipated

demandincreaseswillprimarilybesatisfied

throughacombinationofwind,solar,and

expandednuclearcapacity,effectivelyreplacingcoalandreducingrelianceongas.Theintelligentmanagementofdistributedresources,includingEVs,rooftopsolarphotovoltaicsystems,and

domesticbatterystorage,willincreasingly

enhanceoverallsystemflexibilityandreliability.

UNDERSTANDINGTHE

ENERGYTRANSFORMATIONROADMAP

Despitesignificantprogressinrecentyears,Poland’senergytransitionfacesformidablechallengesthatthreatenbotheconomic

competitivenessandsystemreliability.Anunderinvestedandoutdatedpowergrid,

persistentlyhighelectricityprices,growingmismatchesbetweenenergyconsumptionandproductionprofiles,aginggenerationinfrastructure,andincreasingblackout

riskscombinetocreateacomplexwebof

interconnectedproblems.Thesechallenges,

however,cannotbeaddressedwithoutacriticalfocusonthemodernizationofthecountry’sgridinfrastructure.

THEGRIDINFRASTRUCTURECHALLENGE

Poland’selectricitygrid,originallydesigned

forcentralizedfossil-fuelgeneration,strugglestoaccommodatetherapidexpansionof

decentralizedrenewableenergysources.Grid

congestionandconnectiondelayshavebecomeincreasinglycommon,significantlyslowing

theintegrationofnewrenewableprojects.

Thechallengeextendsbeyondgeneration:

largeelectricity-consuminginvestmentssuchasdatacentersalsofacesignificantobstaclesinsecuringgridconnections.

Figure4.ThreescenariosforPoland’spower-capacityevolution,2040F

(GW)

145-150

1%

135-140

1%

12%

12%

125-130

1%

12%

31%

28%

27%

34%

2%

9%

4%

6%

34%

3%

10%

5%

7%

33%

3%

11%

5%

7%

Case1Case2Case3

mCHP■Coal(hard+lignite).NaturalgasmNuclear.Solar.Wind.StoragemOtherSource:ArthurD.Little,PSE,NECP,PNEP

2026&BEYOND

,

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK

12

Thescaleoftheproblemisstaggering.In2024alone,connectionrequestsforapproximately

74GWoftheoreticalcapacity,includingroughly

42GWofrenewableenergysources,were

declined,followingarecordhighof84GWthepreviousyear.

9

Toputthisinperspective,thesedeclinedrequestsexceedthetotalinstalled

capacityinthePolishsystem,whichstandsat72GW.

HistoricallyinsufficientinvestmentbyPSEisexpectedtoshiftdramaticallyunderan

ambitious2025–2034investmentstrategy

.10

PSEplanstoinvestapproximately€15billion,enablingthegridtohandleupto18GWof

offshorewind,19GWofonshorewind,and

45GWofphotovoltaiccapacity.Withinthenextdecade,theseupgradesareanticipatedtoallowPoland’sgridtoreliablyhandleapproximately160TWhofrenewableenergyannually.This

correspondstoupto70%ofthecountry’stotalelectricitygeneration,significantlyabovetheforecastrenewableshareofaround50%.

PSE’sgrid-expansioneffortsaresupported

bytheregulatorthroughlegislativemeasuresaimedatreducingfinancialandtechnical

barriers.Recentregulatoryimprovements

includedirectlineregulationsallowingenergyproducerstobypassthepublicgrid,cable

poolingandcommercialconnectionmeasurestominimizeconnectionrequestrejections,

andsimplifiedproceduresforconnectinghigh-voltagedirectcurrentsystemsandrenewablepowerparks.

THEPRICE

COMPETITIVENESS

PROBLEM

Since2022,persistentlyhighelectricitypriceshavesignificantlyimpactedhouseholdsand

businessesacrossEurope.Thesharprisein

fossil-fuelcostsandEUcarbonallowanceshas

disproportionatelyaffectedeconomiesheavilyreliantoncarbon-intensiveenergysources,suchasPolandandGermany,severelyimpairingtheirindustrialcompetitiveness.

Electricitypricesvarydramaticallyacross

Europe,largelyreflectingeachcountry’s

dominantenergysource.In2024,theaverage

day-aheadspotpriceincoal-dependentPolandwas€100/MWh,comparedto€58/MWhinnuclear-focusedFranceandjust€39/MWhinrenewables-

richNorway

.11

Thesepricedifferentials

haveprofoundimplicationsforindustrial

competitivenessandeconomicdevelopment.

Givenescalatingglobaleconomicpressures,

reducingenergypricesislikelytoemergeasa

primarystrategicfocusforEuropeinthecomingyears.ForPoland,achievinglowerpowerpricesrequiressustaineddecarbonizationefforts

throughabalancedenergymixthatcombinesrenewableenergysourceswithlow-andzero-emissionsolutions,particularlynuclearpower(seeFigure5).

Figure5.ElectricityrealpricesinPoland,2025–2040F

(ε/MWh)

110

Case1

Case2

Case3

105

100

99

100

98

95

85

82

66

90

85

80

74

75

70

65

56

48

60

55

50

45

2025E2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F2031F2032F2033F2034F2035F2036F2037F2038F2039F2040F

Source:ArthurD.Little,TGE,PSE,NECP,PNEP

ARTHURD.LITTLE

13

THEGROWINGPRODUCTION-CONSUMPTIONMISMATCH

Polandisexperiencingarapidincreaseintheimbalancebetweenelectricityproductionandconsumptionpatterns,drivenbythegrowingshareofweather-dependentrenewableenergysourcesinthegenerationmix.Thismismatchcreatesthreemajorchallengesthatthreatensystemstabilityandeconomicefficiency:

curtailment,“dunkelflaute,”andhighlyvolatileelectricityprices.

Curtailmentoccurswhenthegridcannotabsorbexcesselectricitygeneratedbyrenewables

duringperiodsofhighproductionbutlow

demand.Thescaleofthisproblemisgrowing

rapidly.Forinstance,duringtheseven-day

periodendingon21April2025(EasterMonday),PSEcurtailed77.5GWhofrenewablegeneration,exceedingthetotalcurtailmentfor2023and

representingmorethan10%ofthefull-yearamountin2024.

12

Dunkelflaute,aGermantermmeaning“dark

doldrums,”representstheoppositeextreme—periodsofprolongedlowrenewablegenerationduetoweatherconditionsaffectingbothsolarandwindcapacity.InNovember2024,Poland

experiencedanextendeddunkelflautelastingapproximately10days,leadingPSEtoactivatethecapacitymarketforonlythesecondtimeinhistory.Spotpricessurgedto€630/MWhduringthisperiod,highlightingtheeconomicvolatilitycreatedbyrenewableintermittency.

Withoutfasterdeploymentofflexiblecapacity(BESS,heatstorage,onshore/offshorewind),curtailmentlevelscouldtripleby2040.

Prolongeddunkelflauteperiodswouldfurtherdrivewholesalepricespikesandtriggercostlybalancingmarketactivations(FCR,AFRR,

MFRR,PICASSO,MARI).Risingpricevolatilityisinevitable,asbaseloadunitsrunlessfrequentlyandgasplantsfacehigherfuelusefromhot

starts,addingupwardpressureonprices.

HubertPut,SeniorConsultant,Montel

Intradayspotpriceshavealsoexhibited

dramaticvolatility.InApril2025,dailyprice

swingsexceeded€350/MWh,rangingfrom

nearly€235/MWhduringeveningpeakdemandtonegative€117/MWhduringmiddaypeak

solarproduction(seeFigure6).Suchextremevolatilityunderminesmarketpredictabilityandinvestmentplanning.

Withoutrapiddeploymentofadequateenergystoragesolutions,Polandrisksfrequent

curtailmentofrenewableenergy,reduced

investmentattractivenessinrenewableenergysourcesduetouncertaineconomicreturns,andoverallweakenedstabilityoftheelectricity

system.Additionally,securingsignificant

capacityofdispatchablesources—power

plantsthatcanbeturnedonoradjustedondemand,suchasgasandnuclear—iscriticalforenhancingsystemresilience.

Figure6.Intradayspotprices,7-14April2025

(ε/MWh)

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

7April8April9April10April11April12April13April14April

Source:ArthurD.Little,TGE,PSE

2026&BEYOND

,

REPORT:POLANDENERGYOUTLOOK

14

THERMALGENERATIONUNDERSTRESS

Thedeploymentofconventionalcontrollable

powersourcesfacesnotablechallengesofits

own.MuchofPoland’scoal-basedgeneration

capacityisaging,withnumerouscoal-fired

unitsalreadybeyondtheireconomicortechnicallifespan.Additionally,theseconventional

powerplantsrelyheavilyonwaterforcooling,makingthemincreasinglyvulnerabletorisingtemperaturesandperiodicwaterscarcity.

Currently,15powerplantsinPolandoperateinregionsfacinglimitedwaterresources.Anadditionalfivegas-firedplantsareplannedforthesewater-constrainedareas,which

couldposefurtherriskstolocalecosystems

andoperationalreliability.Addressingwater

scarcityproactivelyiscrucialtoensuringstableoperationsandminimizingenvironmental

impacts.AlthoughawarenessofPoland’s

watermanagementchallengesisgrowing,

currentinitiativesremainfocusedprimarily

onagriculturalretentionprojects,withenergysectorneedsreceivinginsufficientattention.

THESPECTEROF

SYSTEMINSTABILITY

BlackouteventsinSpainandPortugalinApril

2025underscorethestrategicimportanceof

energysystemstability.AfterseveralhoursofoutagesaffectingtheentireIberianPeninsula,concernshaveemergedabouttheresilience

ofPoland’senergysystemandthepotential

riskofsimilardisruptions.Highpenetration

ofrenewableenergysourcesmayreducegrid

stabilityduetorapidfluctuationsingenerationandadeclineinmechanicalinertia,thephysicalmomentumthathelpsstabilizegridfrequency.

Toaddresstheserisksandensuresystem

reliabilityamidgrowingrenewableintegration,significantinvestmentisrequiredacross

multipleareas:energystoragesolutionssuchasbatteriesandpumpedhydrostorage;grid

infrastructureupgrades,includingsynchronouscondensersandhigh-voltagedirectcurrent

interconnections;advancedgridautomation;

syntheticinertiatechnologieslikegrid-forminginvertersandvirtualpowerplants;androbustcybersecuritymeasures.

Additionally,Polandmayneedtoreassess

itsrelianceontraditionalpower-generation

methods.Intheinterim,astrongeremphasisonnuclearbaseloadcapacityandflexiblenatural

gasgenerationisadvisableuntilscalableand

reliablegrid-stabilizingtechnologiesbecome

fullyoperational.WhiledetaileddataoninertiarequirementsarenotpubliclydisclosedbyPSE,thesizeofthesystemminimumsuggeststhat

between7GWand9GWofsynchronouscapacityisneededtomaintainadequateinertiaduring

thesummerandwinterperiods,respectively,accordingtoADLestimates.

STRATEGICPATHWAYSFORWARD

Currently,Poland’sfuturegenerati