银行业2025年10月金融数据点评：M1增速开启下

图表目录图1：老径M1增速 3图2：月政度1比多（位:元） 5图3：新M1度量节性亿） 5图4：民额蓄速 6图5：度融量多增亿） 6图6：度贷量多增亿） 7图7：度款量多增 7表1：社、贷、币同增速 3表2：年月增社融构 3表3：年月增结构 4表4：年月增结构 4表5：年月增结构 4表6：年月金务增量 4表7：年计增社融构 8表8：年计增结构 8表9：年计增结构 8表10：年计增结构 8表11：年计金务增量 9图1：新老口径M1增速新M1 老M130.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%2010-112011-042010-112011-042011-092012-022012-072012-122013-052013-102014-032014-082015-012015-062015-112016-042016-092017-022017-072017-122018-052018-102019-032019-082020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-072022-122023-052023-102024-032024-082025-012025-06-5.0%-10.0%，中国人民银行同比增速2025/102025/92025/8同比增速2025/102025/92025/82025/72025/62025/52025/42025/32025/22025/1社融8.5%8.7%8.8%9.0%8.9%8.7%8.7%8.4%8.2%8.0%扣政府债5.9%5.9%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.0%6.0%5.9%6.0%6.1%各项贷款6.5%6.6%6.8%6.9%7.1%7.1%7.2%7.4%7.3%7.5%各项存款8.0%8.0%8.6%8.7%8.3%8.1%8.0%6.7%7.0%5.8%非财政存款8.0%8.0%8.4%8.4%8.0%7.8%7.7%6.5%6.8%6.2%M28.2%8.4%8.8%8.8%8.3%7.9%8.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%新M16.2%7.2%6.0%5.6%4.6%2.3%1.5%1.6%0.1%0.4%M1-M2-2.0%-1.2%-2.8%-3.2%-3.7%-5.6%-6.5%-5.4%-6.9%-6.6%老M16.2%5.8%4.9%3.1%0.7%-1.0%-0.8%-2.5%-5.7%M010.6%11.5%11.7%11.8%12.0%12.1%12.0%11.5%9.7%17.2%单位活期5.0%4.4%3.3%1.2%-1.8%-3.8%-3.4%-5.2%-10.5%，中国人民银行年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期20198,6806,8095,4706,6138,4842,933-6,650-734-2,463-1,728202013,9298,9986,6636,89811,8292,779-14,364-1,3341,0522,386202116,17610,0097,7528,26214,4293,329-6,669-781-8,058-7,27620229,1346,3434,4316,1528,943-2,457-13,686-255-9,688-9,433202318,4412,8034,8377,38423,0229,322-14,383-688-11,272-10,584202414,1203,6252,9655,00015,4959,5432,294617-507-1,12420258,1503,257-2012,2007,093-107-2,471-313-11,455-11,142同比多增-5,970-368-3,166-2,800-8,402-9,650-4,765-930-10,948-10,018，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表3：历年当月新增社融结构年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券其他20198,6805,470-10-667-624-1,0532,0321801,8711,482202013,9296,663-175-174-875-1,0892,2639274,9311,458202116,1767,752-33-173-1,061-8862,2618466,1671,30320229,1344,431-724470-61-2,1562,4137882,7911,182202318,4414,837152-429393-2,5361,17832115,638-1,113202414,1202,965-710-219172-1,39698728410,4951,54220258,150-201-2001,653156-2,8942,4696964,8931,578同比多增-5,970-3,1665101,872-16-1,4981,482412-5,60236，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表4：历年当月新增贷款结构年份金融机构:新增人民币贷款社融口径人民币贷款(投向实体)人民币贷款投据融资）对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他20196,6135,4705,2562,216-1,1782143,5876231,1232820206,8986,6637,7874,113-837-1,1244,0592723823320218,2627,7526,5922,190-2881,1604,221426583-3020226,1524,4312,5264,623-1,8431,905332-51213844,8371,6613,828-1,7703,176707-1,0532,08840820245,0002,9651,2711,700-1,9001,6941,1004901,10081620252,200-201-5,207300-1,9005,006-700-2,8669361,424同比多增-2,800-3,166-6,478-1,400-3,312-1,800-3,356-164608，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表5：历年当月新增存款结构年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他企业存款（主要机关团体存款）机关团体存款境外存款其他20192,372-13,005-6,012-6,9935,5518,865961985-2412020-3,971-18,211-9,569-8,6429,0502,9182,2722,598-326120217,649-17,821-12,100-5,72111,10012,4001,9702,160-235452022-1,844-16,803-5,103-11,70011,4002,0481,5111,2851517520236,446-15,021-6,369-8,65213,7005,0682,6991,929810-4020246,000-13,000-5,700-7,3005,95210,8002,2482,938-86217220256,100-24,253-13,400-10,8537,20018,5004,653同比多增100-11,253-7,700-3,5531,2487,7002,405，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表6：历年当月净金融债务增量年份居民贷款居民存款居民部门净融资对公社融融资对公存款对公部门净融资政府债券财政存款政府部门净融资非银贷款-非银存款20194,210-6,01210,2222,163-6,0328,1951,8715,551-3,680-7,74220204,331-9,56913,9004,118-6,37010,4884,9319,050-4,119-2,53620214,647-12,10016,7474,902-3,7518,6536,16711,100-4,933-11,8172022-180-5,1034,9237,571-10,18917,7602,79111,400-8,609-9082023-346-6,3696,0236,849-5,95312,80215,63813,7001,938-2,98020241,590-5,7007,2902,008-5,0527,06010,4955,9524,543-9,7002025-3,566-13,4009,8348,180-6,20014,3804,8937,200-2,307-17,564同比多增-5,156-7,7002,5446,172-1,1487,320-5,6021,248-6,850-7,864，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）图2：单月财政力度1同比多增（单位:亿元）2025 2024 2023 202220,00015,000

15,74610,28910,54710,28910,5479,0737,5147,9375,5407,5466,2305,668,05,0393,2605,3974,3543,3234,6044,8792,5782,605,2802-1,072-2,1406 月-1,438982-1,7885月6月-4,716-4,1047月1,182-1,257-2,3978月1,714-2,7649,6,6-5,23812月 -6,850 -8,3105,000--5,000-10,000，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）图3：新M1月度增量季节性（亿元）2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 202060,0001212345678910111220,000--20,000-40,000-60,000，中国人民银行图4：居民超额储蓄增速50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%，中国人民银行图5：月度社融增量同比多增（亿元）3,0002,0001,000--1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000，中国人民银行6图4：居民超额储蓄增速50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%，中国人民银行图5：月度社融增量同比多增（亿元）3,0002,0001,000--1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000，中国人民银行62009-102009-102010-032010-082011-012011-062011-112012-042012-092013-022013-072013-122014-052014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-122024-052024-102025-032025-084,0002,0002,000--2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000，中国人民银行图7：月度存款增量同比多增10,000新增人新增人币存款 居民新增企业存款财政存款非银金机构款 其他单存款款 新增+企业存--5,000-10,000-15,000，中国人民银行年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期2019214,785173,036144,432142,871184,620171,082118,85618719,04618,8592020310,087237,843173,542169,482241,726226,398163,2323,84752,01048,1632021263,845213,521176,033175,462225,786202,586149,3651,7712,2474762022287,204225,305183,298186,996248,895234,943230,0157,59226,30418,7132023311,919236,710200,030204,831280,040259,602217,9553,859-2,977-6,8362024270,763188,464156,877165,200247,499234,299174,3799,002-44,853-53,8552025309,000189,500145,200149,700269,200248,300215,9787,3066,931-375同比多增38,2371,036-11,677-15,50021,70114,00141,599-1,69751,78453,480，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表8：当年累计新增社融结构年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券其他2019214,785144,432-821-7,121-1,701-6,27826,4612,52241,74915,5412020310,087173,5422,877-3,364-5,0124,58843,1907,02772,24414,9952021263,845176,0332,497-1,315-13,330-3,11526,6928,98850,32417,0712022287,204183,298-2,9413,769-4,874-3,04924,7929,52761,89914,7832023311,919200,030-1,2136281,031-11817,6087,06475,20911,6802024270,763156,877-2,773-3763,734-2,87216,8721,98982,29915,0132025309,000145,200-1,1461,0822,16011618,2003,863119,50020,025同比多增38,237-11,6771,6271,458-1,5742,9881,3281,87437,2015,012，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表9：当年累计新增贷款结构年份金融机构:新增人民币贷款社融口径人民币贷款(投向实体)人民币贷款投据融资）对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他2019142,871144,432126,91850,61613,52217,51444,98716,023-1,7181,9272020169,482173,542170,29876,61326,2633,24450,05915,572-4,3382,0692021175,462176,033166,72585,49010,1129,30851,42116,726-1,0363,4412022186,996183,298156,39391,12330,95726,90523,53210,3881,3642,7272023204,831200,030200,209122,62838,130-17921,70716,4472,0414,0572024165,200156,877146,90098,30026,4009,97716,5004,5142,9876,5222025149,700145,200135,44283,20043,4009,75812,600-5,170-1856,097同比多增-15,500-11,677-11,458-15,10017,000-219-3,900-9,684-3,172-425，中国人民行 ；单位（亿元）表10：当年累计新增存款结构年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他企业存款（主要机关团体存款）机关团体存款境外存款其他2019134,49187,49579,2888,20713,53810,09323,36523,145686-4652020177,432136,18989,93146,25815,3287,68318,23217,7111,002-4802021173,79787,27972,80014,47923,20044,20019,11818,5951,156-6332022225,912175,097126,99748,10013,95212,44824,41521,5612,5812732023231,237174,379137,83136,54820,4386,02630,39427,84