从BESS EPC视角看国际储能技术发展

PerspectivesfromaBESS-EPCviewpointThoughtsfromSterlingandWilson02ndJuly2018GlobalSolar+EnergyStorageCongressandExpo2018,Shanghai,China

Topicscovered

IntroductiontoSterlingandWilsonWhatwedoatSWHES?ChangingLandscapeinEnergyStorage

WhatliesaheadPerspectivesfromESS-EPCviewpointKeyLearning2IntroductionWhatweare,whatwedoYearsofEPClegacyEstablishedin1927CountriesCoveredVideprojectsexecutedbythegroupRankedbyIHSMarkit(Q12018)SolarEPCCompanyoutsideChinaParentRevenueinFY18We’rebackedby150-yearoldShapoorjiPallonjiGroup$6Bn91CommissionedPowerProjectsGloballyIncludescombinedfleetofSolar,Diesel,GasandCo-gen>9.4GWNo.1RevenuesinFY18Robustbalancesheetmakesprojectfinancingforclientseasier$1.5Bn>60SterlingandWilsonisaleadingIndianMultinationalwithinterestsinEngineering,ConstructionandEnergyServicesglobally3ControlsAssetManagementO&MIntegration-aidingFinanceEngineeringConceptDesign&ProjectDevelopmentConstructionTurnkeyBESSwithancillariesREHybridswithDieselREHybridsonIslandsRenewableIntegration/Micro-gridREMiningHybridsHybridswithGas/HFOSegmentsofinterestforSterlingandWilson’sHybridEnergyStorageBusiness(HES)TurnkeyscopeofferedbyHESIntroductionWhatweare,whatwedo430MWhSterlingandWilson’srecentlyformulatedHybridandEnergyStorage(HES)businessisworkingtowardsdeliveringthelargestbatteryenergystoragesysteminAfrica5SolarPVDieselGenerationBESSApplicationsServedMicro-gridIntegrationPowerAutonomyEnablingInstitutiontogooff-gridIntroductionOurrecentlargewinintheHybridandEnergyStoragespaceExecuting2sizeablepilotprojectsinIndiainvolvingsolar,diesel,gasandbatteryhybrid,besidesalargeprojectinWestAfricaShortlistedamongfinalroundofEPCbiddersfor2largeenergystoragehybridprojectsinAfricaPreferredturnkeysolutionsprovideronlargeoff-gridprojectinAustraliaPreferredbidderon2largeenergystoragefacilitiesinUKLeadingbidsworth750MWhgloballyforenergystorageasapartofHybridsaswellasstandalonestoragerequirementsinvariouscountries,includingIndiawhichisthefirstcountrytocomeupwithadedicatedhybridpolicy6SterlingandWilsonisfastemergingasaleadingHybridandEnergyStorageTURNKEYsolutionsproviderintheglobalspaceIntroductionWhatiskeepingusbusy:MassivepotentialforengagementwithChinaBatteriescanprovideavarietyofservicestothegrid….APPLICATIONS2018+?20142016Source:NextEraEnergy2017Asstoragecostsfallandenergydensityimproves,moreapplicationsbecome“viable”Shortdurationsignifies“Power”andLongdurationsignifies“Energy”Short:<1hour,Medium:1-4hours,Long:4-8hoursChangingLandscapeWeareinthemiddleofadisruptiveenergystoragerevolution7Batterycostsaredecliningfasterthanexpected…..ConfluenceofElectronics,EVandUtilityindustrieseminentincreatingdemandSource:IEAGlobalEVOutlook2017EvolutionofBatteryEnergyDensityandCostChangingLandscapeWeareinthemiddleofadisruptiveenergystoragerevolution8….AstheMegafactoriesarecoming!From25GWhin2016toapipelineof325GWhupto2021Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligenceOctober2017FactoryCapacitiesinGWhannouncedChangingLandscapeWeareinthemiddleofadisruptiveenergystoragerevolution9Implicationsofthecellsonsystemcostsandlikelytrendis“jawdropping”2017pricefloorfor”all-in-system”costshoveredbelow$500/kWhasperDNVGLResearchSource:DNVGLAnalysis,2017Costof4MWhsystemin2017being$2MnCostofsimilarsystemin2020couldpotentiallybe$800k?Is$100/kWhstilltheholygrail?P.S:Marketpricingforbatteriesaround$120/kWhalready!!ChangingLandscapeWeareinthemiddleofadisruptiveenergystoragerevolution10BatteriesforEVswouldneedfastchargewhichwouldmandate–MOREenergystorage!Prospectof4-5%loadgrowthmayexciteUtilitiesgloballytopushadoptionofElectricVehiclesleadingtogridcomplexitiesSource:Moody'sInvestorService,Sep2017WhatliesaheadWeareinthemiddleofadisruptiveenergystoragerevolution11Integrator/EPCturnkeywraps:ThenextstepofBESSEvolution12CellsModulesBMSSystemsContainer&BOPPad,Site,Fencing,HydrantsInterconnectorControlsOwnandOperateCellProvidersSystemIntegratorsmaybuildmodulesCellproviderisalsomoduleproviderSystemIntegratorsmayalsoprovideEPCTurnkeyEPC/IntegratorsuchasSterlingandWilsonmightdoeverythingandprovideturnkeywrapSoftwareprovidedbyEPCorSystemIntegratorSoftwareDeveloperFinanceDeveloper&FinanceChanginglandscapeLargeestablishedturnkeysolutionsproviderslikeuswillchallengetraditionalapproachestowarrantiesandenablefinanciersgetcomfortwithBESSsystemdeliverablesPerceptionofrisksandrelevantmitigationstrategieswillhaveabearingonBESSadoptionrateRef:DNVGL2017AnalysisWhatliesaheadEvolutionofenergystorageleadingtoturnkeyEPCentryintothespace

KeyobservationsfromanIntegrator’sperspective13MultipleRevenueStackingThroughputwarrantiesCapacityGuaranteesReplacementofbatteries10-15yearsO&MMarketDemandsLackofback-to-backsupportfromOEMsmoresowhenoperationalcaseunclearCappingofoverallliabilitiesComplicationinprovingbreachofwarrantiesandclaimsthereofAdaptationofbatterywarrantiestouse-casebecauseofrevenuestackingRelatedRisksPerceivedPerspectivesfromaBESS-EPCviewpointMarketdemandsseenandrisksperceived

KeyobservationsfromanIntegrator’sperspective14Lackofback-to-backsupportfromOEMsmoresowhenoperationalcaseunclearCappingofoverallliabilitiesComplicationinprovingbreachofwarrantiesandclaimsthereofAdaptationofbatterywarrantiestouse-casebecauseofrevenuestackingRisksPerceivedforTurnkeyWrapsWellknitbatteryOEMpartnerships,understandingandrepeatabilityofoperationalcaseswithspecificOEMsWorkonestablishingwelldefinedSOPswithbatteryOEMsSharewithbatteryOEMcertainoperationlimitssuchasmax.cyclesperday,C-rating,DoD,yearlydegradationetc.fortighterwarrantydesignduringdesignstageitself.Makeitpartofoffertoclients.PossibleMitigationStrategiesPerspectivesfromaBESS-EPCviewpointMitigationstrategiestotacklesolutionrisksFurtherriskmitigationbyuseofcapacityaugmentationandreserveforsafeguardingperformanceguarantees15Optimaloversizingofthesystemtosustainratedenergycapability(reserve)andperiodicadditionsfactoredupfront(augmentation)aretwotoolsusedtosafeguardperformanceguaranteesFlexibilityofequipmentadditiontunedtodeclineinbatteryequipmentcostsovertimeSystemdegradationfactorsdependonenvironment,cyclelife,DoDandlifewhichinturndependonusecasesofbatteriesSystemOperatingLife(years)Capacity(MWhr)ContractedCapacityReserveCapacity(Oversizing)PeriodicBatteryEquipmentAdditionPerspectivesfromaBESS-EPCviewpointBalancingriskmitigationandcommercialsforBESS16P&Mbreakdown(incl.DLP)LatentDefectDesign/SeriesDefectCoverforspecificBatteryOEMsWhatwehave*BatteryAvailability(similartobreakdowninsurancecover)Alllossofprofitcoveronaccountofnon-performanceofbatteryand/orForcemajeureevent(Coversforthroughputguarantees,energyguaranteesetc.)ProfessionalIndemnityCoversforBESSdesignbasisapplication(s)servedWhatweneed*InformationbasedoninsurancesolicitationsmadebySWandquotesreceivedfromOEMs,Brokersandinsurersin2017-18PerspectivesfromaBESS-EPCviewpointChallengesinInsuringrisks:Ideaswelcome!DifficultyoffightingbatteryfiresThermalRunawayImpactofbatteryapplicationondepthofdischarge,degradationandcyclelife,therebyaffectingwarrantiesFailureofcontrolsystems–BMS/EMSMechanicalDamage/ElectricalTransientsKeyRisksforInsurer’sFocus17Sizeandlocationofthebatteryhaveahighimpactondeterminati