高盛-韩国汽车行业：2026年继续维持中性评级-SOUTH KOREA AUTOMOBILES：Continue to be neutral on the sector into 2026-20260105

SOUTHKOREAAUTOMOBILES

Continuetobeneutralonthesectorinto2026

hEtqtisty:/wsa.vrlhuelist5January2026|9:16PMKST

WeareneutralontheKoreanAutosectorasmostofthepositivessuchasincreasingUSmarketshare,favorableFX,andadecentmodelcycleseemtobebroadly

reflectedinthemultiple.Sharesstilllookrelativelycheap,butwestruggletofindacatalystforare-ratingin2026.WedonotetheroboticsangleviaBostonDynamicscouldbeapotentialpositive,especiallyforMobis.

2025wasayearofunderperformanceforKoreaAutos,withHMC,Kia,andMobis

underperformingKospiby36ppt,55ppt,and18pptrespectively.Themainreasonwasduetotarifs,whichledconsensusOPestimatetobecutfor2025by18%,28%forHMCandKia(Mobis+4%,whichexplainstheoutperformance).Yetduetowhatturnedouttobeexcessivefearfromtarifs,therewerealsoopportunitiesinthe

sectorin2025.Forinstance,HMCoutperformedKospiin2Hby9pptandwasup

46%,withmostoftheappreciationseeninOctober.Withthebiggestcatalystofthetarifratecomingdownfrom25%to15%panningoutinNov,thesectorcurrently

lacksaclearpositivecatalystgoingforward,besidesarobotics-relatedtheme(morerelevantforMobis).

Wecontinuetothink3Q25wasthebottomintermsofearnings,eventhoughthe

tarifimpactfor4Qshouldbesimilartothatof3Qdespitethetarifrategoingdownto15%fromNov(duetoinventorieslaggingefect).Fortheupcoming4Q25results,weexpectHMC,KiaandMobisOPtocomeinbroadlyinlinewithmarket

expectationsat3%,6%and2%belowcurrentconsensuslevelsrespectively(Exhibit4,Exhibit7,Exhibit10).WealsonoteconsensusnumbersforHMCandMobishavetrendedupalongwiththesharepricesinceOct,andournumbersarenowgenerallylowerversusconsensusfor2026/2027(Exhibit13),withthebiggestdiferencelikelyduetoourKRW-USDFXassumptionofW1,384for2026andW1,360for2027,

whereusingcurrentspotratewouldleadtosimilarnumberstoconsensus.

Inotherwords,thecurrentstrongtrendintheUSmarketshareislargelyalreadyintheprice(Exhibit14&Exhibit15).OutsideoftheUS,themarketshareprofilelooksquitelukewarm(Exhibit16-Exhibit29)andlikelytostaythatway,asidefromKorea

DoHyoungKim

+82(2)3788-1376|

dohyoung.kim@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch

JoshuaKim

+82(2)3788-1791|joshua.kim@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldafecttheobjectivityofthisreport.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/quali

fiedasresearch

analystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachsSouthKhotrtepasA:wo.biles

andIndiawhichshouldbenefitfromthenewmodelcyclefromthisyearandnext

(Exhibit30&Exhibit31).Forthenewmodelcycle,webelievethevolumecontributionandloweredincentiveswilllikelytakeplacemorefrom2027,whichiswhyweseea

steepYoYincreaseinOPin2027whilemutedfor2026.WedothinkthatifFXcontinuestostayfavorableatcurrentlevels(Exhibit32&Exhibit33)thereisscopeforapositivesurprise.Yetwearealsowaryofapotentialhigherincentives-basedspending

environmentforinventoryclearingofnewmodelsin1H26(Exhibit34&Exhibit35).

Lastly,therisingHEVportionintheUSalsoseemstobewidelyfactoredinbythemarketandisevidentinthemonthlytimeseries(Exhibit38&Exhibit39).

Recently,wenoteTeslaFSD(fullselfdriving)hasbeengettingquitealotofinterestfromconsumers,evidentinrisingGooglesearchesforFSDinKorea(GoogleTrendsExhibit

44).ThisisaslightconcerngivenHyundaiMotorGroup’s(HMG)laggingcapabilitiesinSDV(softwaredefinedvehicle)&autonomousdrivingisstartingtobediscussedonitshometurfaswell(link).However,HMGwillbelaunchingitsSDVprototypeinlate2026withaplanofmassproductionin2027,andwenotethatthegroupsecuring50,000BlackwellGPUsfromNvidiaalsoshowsstrongpotentialtopoweritsdevelopmentinautonomousdriving.ButuntilHMGisabletoshowmeaningfulprogress,weseeitas

unlikelythatthesharepricewillre-ratejustonanticipation.Thisiswhy,despiteHMCandKiamultiplesremainingcheaprelativetolegacyOEMs(Exhibit45)andofferingdecentdividendyield(Exhibit46),wekeepourappliedtargetpricemultiplesata

historicaldiscounttopeers.

Wedothinkthestakesinroboticsfirm,BostonDynamics,willlikelybeapowerful

narrativegiventhehighinterestinthemarket(Exhibit53-Exhibit56).HMC,KiaandMobisallhavestakeexposureinBostonDynamics(Exhibit47).However,wenotethatwithoutcrystallizationofthevalueoftheirBostonDynamicsstakes,anyrelated

re-ratingwouldhaveitslimits.ThiswasevidentfromHMC’sweaksharepriceaction

duringHyundaiMotorIndia’s(HMI)IPO,despitevaluecrystallizationofHMI.Besides,asshowninExhibit48,webelievetherewasasizablere-ratingofHMCsharesrelatedtoroboticsandBostonDynamicsonDec5,whenshareswereup11%afternewsthattheUSwillprioritizeroboticsafterAI(link),leadingthesharepricetopullforwardalotofpositivesthatwehavebakedin.WedowngradedHMCshortlyafterinDec(link)aswebelievethepushupinsharepricefromBDbasicallypulledforwardalltheother

positiveswewerelookingfor.ComparedtoHMC,Kiahadamoremutedresponse

relatedtotheroboticsnewsonDec5,andthePEmultiplespreadagainstHMChas

widenedtoahigherrange(Exhibit50),hencewecontinuetorateKiaasaBuy.For

Mobis,wedothinktheBostonDynamicsopportunityismoresignificantthanforHMCandKia,andoffersanoptionalityinitsnewactuatorbusiness.Webelieverevenue

recognitionfromthenewbusinessisstillsomeyearsaway,yetthesharepricehas

startedtogainmomentumontheroboticstheme.However,giventhelowMobis

multiple(Exhibit51)comparedtootherroboticsthematicnames,wecouldpotentiallyseeheightenedmarketexpectationcontinuedespiteanabsenceofaclearroadmap.

HenceforourinvestmentstrategyintheKoreanAutosector,webelieveKiahasthebestrisk-rewardprofile,andwerateitasaBuy.ForHMCandMobis,webelievetheshare

pricenowreflectsmuchofthepositiveearningtrajectorywemodelfor2026-2027,thusweratethemasNeutral.Withthisnote,wealsorollforwardourvaluationbaseto2027,leadingTPincreasesforallthreenames(Exhibit57).OurEPSchangesinthisnoteare

minimal(0-2%),reflectingrecentkeyfactorssuchasvolumeandFX(Exhibit5,Exhibit8,

5January20262

GoldmanSachsSouthKhotrtepasA:wo.biles

Exhibit11).WeexpectHMCandKia’searningsgrowthtobestrongfrom2H26onYoYtermsduetoalowbase.

Exhibit1:HMC2025priceactionrecapExhibit2:Kia2025priceactionrecap

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

350,000

'Liberationday'tariffs

300,000

'Liberationday'tariffs

250,000

200,000

Detailsfor15%UStariffsagreedHMGChairmanmeetswithNVIDIACEO

KR-USjointfactsheetannounced

150,000

Detailsfor15%UStariffsagreedHMGChairmanmeetswithNVIDIACEO

100,000

50,000

20,000

Trumpadministrationreportedlyconsideringissuingexecutiveordersonrobotics

KR-USjointfactsheetannounced

Trumpadministrationreportedlyconsideringissuingexecutiveordersonrobotics

0

0

Jan25

Feb25

Mar25

Apr25

May25

Jun25

Jul25

Aug25

Sep25

Oct25

Nov25

Dec25

Jan25

Feb25

Mar25

Apr25

May25

Jun25

Jul25

Aug25

Sep25

Oct25

Nov25

Dec25

HMCshrpx(KRW)

Kiashrpx(KRW)

Source:Quantiwise,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Quantiwise,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:Mobis2025priceactionrecap

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

'Liberationday'tariffs

Detailsfor15%UStariffsagreedHMGChairmanmeetswithNVIDIACEO

KR-USjointfactsheetannounced

Trumpadministrationreportedlyconsideringissuingexecutiveordersonrobotics

Jan25

Feb25

Mar25

Apr25

May25

Jun25

Jul25

Aug25

Sep25

Oct25

Nov25

Dec25

Mobisshrpx(KRW)

Source:Quantiwise,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5January20263

【价值目录】网整理：

GoldmanSachsSouthKhotrtepasA:

5January20264

Exhibit4:HMC4Q25preview

Preview

(KRWbn)

4Q25GSe

4Q24

YoY(%)

3Q25

QoQ(%)

4Q25BBG

vs.BBG

ConsolidatedP/L

Revenue

48,053

46,624

3.1%

46,721

2.9%

48,174

-0.3%

Operatingprofit

2,768

2,716

1.9%

2,537

9.1%

2,852

-2.9%

Pre-taxprofit

3,632

3,119

16.4%

3,326

9.2%

3,475

4.5%

Netprofit

2,489

2,280

9.1%

2,261

10.1%

2,640

-5.7%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

5.8%

5.8%

-0.1%pt

5.4%

0.3%pt

5.9%

-0.2%pt

Pre-taxprofit

7.6%

6.7%

0.9%pt

7.1%

0.4%pt

7.2%

0.3%pt

Netprofit

5.2%

4.9%

0.3%pt

4.8%

0.3%pt

5.5%

-0.3%pt

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:HMC-changesinourestimates

GSe(NEW)

GSe(OLD)

Chg%

HyundaiMotor

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

142,151

162,664

175,231

187,469

194,081

202,381

186,077

193,137

201,502

1%

0%

0%

Operatingprofit

9,825

15,127

14,240

12,541

12,719

14,829

12,460

12,649

14,747

1%

1%

1%

Pre-taxprofit

11,181

17,619

17,781

15,807

15,775

18,156

15,727

15,708

18,074

1%

0%

0%

Netprofit

7,583

12,681

12,846

10,906

10,831

12,617

10,845

10,831

12,606

1%

0%

0%

EBITDA

14,873

20,073

18,527

17,812

18,385

20,777

17,732

18,315

20,696

0%

0%

0%

#ofsharesoutstanding(mnshares)

202

204

205

202

201

195

202

201

195

0%

0%

0%

EPS(₩)

29,020

48,240

48,693

41,897

41,815

50,512

41,665

41,814

50,468

1%

0%

0%

DPS(₩)

7,000

11,400

12,000

12,400

12,300

12,500

12,300

12,300

12,500

1%

0%

0%

(YoY)

Revenue

20.9%

14.4%

7.7%

7.0%

3.5%

4.3%

6.2%

3.8%

4.3%

1%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Operatingprofit

47.1%

54.0%

-5.9%

-11.9%

1.4%

16.6%

-12.5%

1.5%

16.6%

1%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Netprofit

53.4%

67.2%

1.3%

-15.1%

-0.7%

16.5%

-15.6%

-0.1%

16.4%

0%pt

-1%pt

0%pt

EBITDA

32.4%

35.0%

-7.7%

-3.9%

3.2%

13.0%

-4.3%

3.3%

13.0%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

(%ofsales)

Operatingprofit

6.9%

9.3%

8.1%

6.7%

6.6%

7.3%

6.7%

6.5%

7.3%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Netprofit

5.3%

7.8%

7.3%

5.8%

5.6%

6.2%

5.8%

5.6%

6.3%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

EBITDA

10.5%

12.3%

10.6%

9.5%

9.5%

10.3%

9.5%

9.5%

10.3%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:HMC-ourquarterlyestimates

Preview

HyundaiMotor

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25E

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

44,408

48,287

46,721

48,053

45,801

50,032

47,167

51,080

Operatingprofit

3,634

3,602

2,537

2,768

2,746

3,287

2,867

3,819

Pre-taxprofit

4,465

4,385

3,326

3,632

3,427

4,103

3,320

4,924

Netprofit

3,157

2,998

2,261

2,489

2,570

3,078

2,490

2,693

(yoy)

Revenue

9.2%

7.3%

8.8%

3.1%

3.1%

3.6%

1.0%

6.3%

Operatingprofit

2.1%

-15.8%

-29.1%

1.9%

-24.4%

-8.7%

13.0%

37.9%

Pre-taxprofit

-5.6%

-21.2%

-23.9%

16.4%

-23.2%

-6.4%

-0.2%

35.6%

Netprofit

-11.1%

-24.5%

-25.7%

9.1%

-18.6%

2.6%

10.1%

8.2%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

8.2%

7.5%

5.4%

5.8%

6.0%

6.6%

6.1%

7.5%

Pre-taxprofit

10.1%

9.1%

7.1%

7.6%

7.5%

8.2%

7.0%

9.6%

Netprofit

7.1%

6.2%

4.8%

5.2%

5.6%

6.2%

5.3%

5.3%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5January20265

Exhibit7:Kia4Q25preview

Preview

(KRWbn)

4Q25GSe

4Q24

YoY(%)

3Q25

QoQ(%)

4Q25BBG

vs.BBG

ConsolidatedP/L

Revenue

27,565

27,148

1.5%

28,686

-3.9%

27,424

0.5%

Operatingprofit

2,002

2,716

-26.3%

1,462

36.9%

2,123

-5.7%

Pre-taxprofit

2,349

2,444

-3.9%

1,887

24.5%

2,312

1.6%

Netprofit

1,563

1,742

-10.2%

1,425

9.7%

1,667

-6.2%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

7.3%

10.0%

-2.7%pt

5.1%

2.2%pt

7.7%

-0.5%pt

Pre-taxprofit

8.5%

9.0%

-0.5%pt

6.6%

1.9%pt

8.4%

0.1%pt

Netprofit

5.7%

6.4%

-0.7%pt

5.0%

0.7%pt

6.1%

-0.4%pt

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:Kia-changesinourestimates

GSe(NEW)

GSe(OLD)

Chg%

Kia

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

86,559

99,808

107,449

113,619

117,367

124,322

115,983

120,022

127,425

-2%

-2%

-2%

Operatingprofit

7,233

11,608

12,667

9,237

9,601

10,940

9,279

9,602

11,213

0%

0%

-2%

Pre-taxprofit

7,502

12,677

13,500

10,480

10,809

12,347

10,537

10,815

12,624

-1%

0%

-2%

Netprofit

5,409

8,777

9,773

7,650

7,891

9,014

7,692

7,895

9,215

-1%

0%

-2%

EBITDA

9,656

13,961

15,216

11,743

12,407

13,987

11,785

12,408

14,260

0%

0%

-2%

#ofsharesoutstanding(mnshares)

401

399

395

390

384

377

390

384

377

0%

0%

0%

EPS(₩)

13,492

22,021

24,745

19,612

20,548

23,895

19,719

20,560

24,437

-0.5%

-0.1%

-2.2%

DPS(₩)

3,500

5,600

6,500

6,500

6,900

7,200

6,500

6,900

7,300

0.0%

0.0%

-1.4%

(YoY)

Revenue

23.9%

15.3%

7.7%

5.7%

3.3%

5.9%

7.9%

3.5%

6.2%

-2%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Operatingprofit

42.8%

60.5%

9.1%

-27.1%

3.9%

14.0%

-26.8%

3.5%

16.8%

0%pt

0%pt

-3%pt

Netprofit

13.6%

62.3%

11.3%

-21.7%

3.1%

14.2%

-21.3%

2.6%

16.7%

0%pt

1%pt

-2%pt

EBITDA

32.5%

44.6%

9.0%

-22.8%

5.6%

12.7%

-22.6%

5.3%

14.9%

0%pt

0%pt

-2%pt

(%ofsales)

Operatingprofit

8.4%

11.6%

11.8%

8.1%

8.2%

8.8%

8.0%

8.0%

8.8%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Netprofit

6.2%

8.8%

9.1%

6.7%

6.7%

7.3%

6.6%

6.6%

7.2%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

EBITDA

11.2%

14.0%

14.2%

10.3%

10.6%

11.3%

10.2%

10.3%

11.2%

0%pt

0%pt

0%pt

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit9:Kia-ourquarterlyestimates

Kia

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25E

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

28,018

29,350

28,686

27,565

29,035

30,304

27,895

30,132

Operatingprofit

3,009

2,765

1,462

2,002

2,323

2,530

2,148

2,599

Pre-taxprofit

3,243

3,000

1,887

2,349

2,634

2,838

2,485

2,853

Netprofit

2,393

2,269

1,425

1,563

1,923

2,072

1,814

2,083

(yoy)

Revenue

6.9%

6.5%

8.2%

1.5%

3.6%

3.3%

-2.8%

9.3%

Operatingprofit

-12.2%

-24.1%

-49.2%

-26.3%

-22.8%

-8.5%

46.9%

29.9%

Pre-taxprofit

-14.3%

-25.7%

-41.6%

-3.9%

-18.8%

-5.4%

31.7%

21.4%

Netprofit

-14.8%

-23.2%

-37.2%

-10.2%

-19.7%

-8.7%

27.3%

33.2%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

10.7%

9.4%

5.1%

7.3%

8.0%

8.4%

7.7%

8.6%

Pre-taxprofit

11.6%

10.2%

6.6%

8.5%

9.1%

9.4%

8.9%

9.5%

Netprofit

8.5%

7.7%

5.0%

5.7%

6.6%

6.8%

6.5%

6.9%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5January20266

Exhibit10:Mobis4Q25preview

Preview

(KRWbn)

4Q25GSe

4Q24

YoY(%)

3Q25

QoQ(%)

4Q25BBG

vs.BBG

ConsolidatedP/L

Revenue

15,932

14,711

8.3%

15,032

6.0%

15,794

0.9%

Operatingprofit

931

2,716

-65.7%

780

19.4%

948

-1.8%

Pre-taxprofit

1,753

1,323

32.5%

1,261

39.0%

1,292

35.7%

Netprofit

1,189

1,279

-7.0%

929

27.9%

1,029

15.5%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

5.8%

18.5%

-12.6%pt

5.2%

0.7%pt

6.0%

-0.2%pt

Pre-taxprofit

11.0%

9.0%

2.0%pt

8.4%

2.6%pt

8.2%

2.8%pt

Netprofit

7.5%

8.7%

-1.2%pt

6.2%

1.3%pt

6.5%

0.9%pt

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:Mobis-changesinourestimates

GSe(NEW)

GSe(OLD)

Chg%

HyundaiMobis

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2025E

2026E

2027E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

51,906

59,254

57,237

61,652

66,011

70,808

61,652

66,011

70,808

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Operatingprofit

2,027

2,295

3,073

3,358

3,525

3,839

3,275

3,473

3,777

2.5%

1.5%

1.7%

Pre-taxprofit

3,363

4,445

5,264

5,830

6,015

6,842

5,747

5,959

6,774

1.4%

0.9%

1.0%

Netprofit

2,485

3,423

4,056

4,081

4,210

4,790

4,023

4,172

4,742

1.4%

0.9%

1.0%

EBITDA

2,925

3,221

4,058

4,562

4,795

5,164

4,479

4,743

5,101

1.9%

1.1%

1.2%

#ofsharesoutstanding(mnshares)

92

91

90

90

89

89

90

89

89

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

EPS(₩)

27,057

37,747

44,816

45,368

47,109

54,063

44,711

46,659

53,492

1.5%

1.0%

1.1%

DPS(₩)

4,000

4,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

8,100

6,400

6,900

8,000

1.6%

1.4%

1.3%

(YoY)

Revenue

24.5%

14.2%

-3.4%

7.7%

7.1%

7.3%

7.7%

7.1%

7.3%

0.0%pt

0.0%pt

0.0%pt

Operatingprofit

-0.7%

13.3%

33.9%

9.3%

5.0%

8.9%

6.6%

6.0%

8.8%

2.7%pt

-1.1%pt

0.1%pt

Netprofit

5.7%

37.7%

18.5%

0.6%

3.2%

13.8%

-0.8%

3.7%

13.7%

1.4%pt

-0.5%pt

0.1%pt

EBITDA

1.7%

10.1%

26.0%

12.4%

5.1%

7.7%

10.4%

5.9%

7.6%

2.1%pt

-0.8%pt

0.1%pt

(%ofsales)

Operatingprofit

3.9%

3.9%

5.4%

5.4%

5.3%

5.4%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

Netprofit

4.8%

5.8%

7.1%

6.6%

6.4%

6.8%

6.5%

6.3%

6.7%

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

EBITDA

5.6%

5.4%

7.1%

7.4%

7.3%

7.3%

7.3%

7.2%

7.2%

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

0.1%pt

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit12:Mobis-ourquarterlyestimates

Preview

HyundaiMobis

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25E

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

ConsolidatedP/L(KRWbn)

Revenue

14,752

15,936

15,032

15,932

15,813

17,076

16,036

17,087

Operatingprofit

777

870

780

931

875

886

876

888

Pre-taxprofit

1,471

1,345

1,261

1,753

1,500

1,582

1,532

1,400

Netprofit

1,031

932

929

1,189

1,050

1,108

1,072

981

(yoy)

Revenue

6.4%

8.7%

7.4%

8.3%

7.2%

7.1%

6.7%

7.2%

Operatingprofit

43.1%

36.8%

-14.1%

-65.7%

12.7%

1.9%

12.2%

-4.7%

Pre-taxprofit

20.3%

-4.7%

-3.5%

32.5%

2.0%

17.6%

21.5%

-20.1%

Netprofit

19.7%

-6.4%

1.1%

-7.0%

1.8%

18.8%

15.4%

-17.5%

(margins)

Operatingprofit

5.3%

5.5%

5.2%

5.8%

5.5%

5.2%

5.5%

5.2%

Pre-taxprofit

10.0%

8.4%

8.4%

11.0%

9.5%

9.3%

9.6%

8.2%

Netprofit

7.0%

5.9%

6.2%

7.5%

6.6%

6.5%

6.7%

5.7%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5January20267

Exhibit13:HMC/Kia/Mobis-ourestimatesvs.Bloombergconsensus

(KRWbn)

2025

2026

2027

GSeBBGconsvs.cons

GSeBBGconsvs.cons

GSeBBGconsvs.cons

HMC

Sales

187,469

187,880

-0.2%

194,081

197,074

-1.5%

202,381

205,364

-1.5%

OP

12,541

12,644

-0.8%

12,719

13,856

-8.2%

14,829

14,935

-0.7%

NP

10,906

11,065

-1.4%

10,831

12,150

-10.9%

12,617

13,099

-3.7%

Kia

Sales

113,619

113,722

-0.1%

117,367

119,730

-2.0%

124,322

124,803

-0.4%

OP

9,237

9,423

-2.0%

9,601

10,556

-9.0%

10,940

11,303

-3.2%

NP

7,650

7,893

-3.1%

7,891

8,840

-10.7%

9,014

9,454

-4.7%

Mobis

Sales

61,652

61,563

0.1%

66,011

66,592

-0.9%

70,808

71,861

-1.5%

OP

3,358

3,356

0.1%

3,525

3,868

-8.8%

3,839

4,371

-12.2%

NP

4,081

3,969

2.8%

4,210

4,449

-5.4%

4,790

4,940

-3.0%

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:HMCmarketcapvs.USM/Strend

WebelievethecurrentstrengthinUSM/Sislargelyintheprice

Exhibit15:Kiamarketcapvs.USM/Strend

WebelievethecurrentstrengthinUSM/Sislargelyintheprice

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

7.0%

6.5%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

6.5%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

HMCmarketcap(KRWbn;LHS)HMCUSM/S(RHS)

Kiamarketcap(KRWbn;LHS)KiaUSM/S(RHS)

Source:Quantiwise,MotorIntelligence,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:Quantiwise,MotorIntelligence,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit16:HMCKoreaM/S

Exhibit17:KiaKoreaM/S

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

——HMCKoreaM/S

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

45.0%

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

——KiaKoreaM/S

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

【价值目录】网整理：

GoldmanSachsSouthKhotrtepasA:

5January20268

Exhibit18:HMCUSM/SExhibit19:KiaUSM/S

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

——HMCUSM/S

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

——KiaUSM/S

Source:Companydata

Source:Companydata

Exhibit20:HMCChinaM/SExhibit21:KiaChinaM/S

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

——HMCChinaM/S

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Source:Companydata

Exhibit23:KiaWesternEuropeM/S

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

——KiaW.EuropeM/S

0.0%

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

——KiaChinaM/S

Source:Companydata

Exhibit22:HMCWesternEuropeM/S

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

——HMCW.EuropeM/S

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

【价值目录】网整理：

GoldmanSachsSouthKhotrtepasA:

5January20269

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

Exhibit24:HMCIndiaM/S

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

——HMCIndiaM/S

Source:Companydata

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Dec-23

May-24

Oct-24

Mar-25

Aug-25

Exhibit25:KiaIndiaM/S

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

KiaIndiaM/S

Sou