房地产 -2025年第四季度悉尼工业与物流数据 Sydney Industrial and Logistics Figures Q4 2025

CBRE

FIGURESIINDUSTRIAL&LOGISTICSIQ42025

ycarhigh

▲2.9%v

2H25sydneyIndustrialvacancy

Note:Arrowsindicatechangefrompreviousquarter.

c.66,000sqm

Newindustrialsupply4Q25

c.95,000sqm

Grosstakeup4Q25

5.17%

superprimemidpointyield

keypoints

Grosstakeupoverthequarterhasdecreasedsignificantlycomparedto3Q25,totallingc.95,000sqmover4Q25.Transport,postal&warehousingledtotalfloorspaceleased(56%).

Averagevacancyraterisesmarginallyandremainsrelativelylowat2.9%(asat2H25).

-Around10%ofthecy2025supplypipelinereachedpcthisquarter,bringingthetotalnewsupplyfortheyeartoc.667,000sqm.

-Thepre-commitmentratefor2026-2028pipelinestandsat25%.-superprimefacerentsy-o-ygrowthratestandsat2.6%.

-Averagelandvaluesremainedunchangedoverthequarteracrossalllotssizestracked.

AtotalofAUD624millionininvestmentsaleshasbeenrecordedin4Q25,across15transactions(forsaleszAUD5million).

superprimemidpointyieldstightenedslightlyatstandat5.17%,whereasprimeandsecondarymidpointyieldsremainedunchangedq-o-qsittingat5.50%and5.81%,

respectively.

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

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Demand

Take-upvolumesforcy2025exceedslong-runaverage

Grosstake-updecreasedsignificantlyin4Q25,comparedtothepreviousquarter(c.187,000sqmin3Q25),totallingc.95,000sqm.Despitelowertakeupvolumesoverthequarter,thecy2025totalhassurpassedthe10-yearlong-runaverage.

Enquiriesareincreasing,supportedbyseverallargerequirementsinthemarket.3PLsare

returning,reflectingevolvingspaceneedspost-COVID.Manyouterwestleasessignedduring

COVIDareapproachingexpiry,coincidingwithariseinsub-leasespace.occupiersarenowlookingtoconsolidateintomoreefficientwarehouselayouts.

Notableleasetransactionsin4Q25:

Apre-leasebyHDS(outerNorthwest)

AnexistingwarehouseleasedbyEverfastworldwideExpress(Innersouthwest)

Asub-leasebyRohligLogistics(outersouthwest)

pre-leasetransactionsaccountedfor37%oftotalleasedfloorspacethisquarter,reflectingtherelativelyhighvolumeofnewsupplyexpectedoverthenext12months.Favourableleaseterms,includingelevatedincentivelevels,arelikelytocontinuesupportingpreleaseactivity.

TheMetrowestprecinctrepresented24%oftotaltake-upbyfloorspace,followedbytheoutersouthwest.consistentwithhistoricaltrends,leasingactivityisexpectedtoremainconcentratedintheouterNorthwest,whereapproximately80%ofsydney'sprojectednewsupply(by

floorspace)isscheduledfordeliverythroughtheendof2027.

Bysector,floorspaceleasedin4Q25wasdominatedbyTransport,postal&warehousing(56%),followedbyprofessional,scientific&Technicalservices(10%).

FIGURE1:sydneyGrossTake-Up2015-2025byprecinct

1,250,000

750,000500,000

250,000

1,500,000

outerNorthwestMetrowestmmoutersouthwest

centralwestInnersouthwestsouthsydney

Historic10-yearAverage

FIGURE2:sydneyQuarterlyGrossTake-Up,4Q23-4Q25

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

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supply

onequarterofthe2026-2028pipelineisalreadypre-committed

Newfloorspaceaddedtothemarketoverthequartertotalledc.66,000sqm,bringingthecy2025totaltoc.667,000sqmslightlyabovethelong「unaverage.

projectcompletionsoverthequarterwereconcentratedintheouterNorthwest,accountingfor55%oftotalnewfloorspace.

Majorprojectsthatreachedpracticalcompletionin4Q25included:warehouse1,149155AirdsRoad,Minto(c.21,000sqm)

warehouse3,290308AldingtonRoad&5963AbbottsRoad,kempscreek(c.21,000sqm)overthree-quartersofdevelopmentspaceduetocompletein2026iscurrentlyunder

construction.Around60%isexpectedtodeliverin1H26,withtheremainderin2H26.precommitmentsfor1H26remainstrongatcloseto50%,reflectingsteadydemandandgivinglandlordsconfidenceasnewspacecomestomarket.

Majorprojectsexpectedtoreachpracticalcompletionnextquarterare:warehouse2,LightHorseBusinessHub,Easterncreek

Apurpose-BuiltfulfillmentcentreatoakdaleEastEstate,Horsleypark

warehouse8A+B,AspectIndustrialEstate,kempscreek

Higherbuildingcostsandlandpriceshavedelayedasignificantportionofnewsupplyoriginallyexpectedin2027,effectivelypushingsomeprojectsintothe2028pipeline.Itisimportanttonote

thataround75%ofthe2027-2028pipelineisstillintheearlystagesofapproval,whileafurther3%hasbeenidentifiedasunlikelytoproceed.severalprojectswillalsorequireprecommitments

beforeconstructioncancommence.Asaresult,theactualforwardpipelineisexpectedtobe

materiallylowerthanthetotalcurrentlyrecorded.Additionally,landlordsaregenerallyholdingoffonspeculativedevelopmentuntiltheirexistingwarehousesareleased,furtherdelayingnew

supply.

FIGURE3:sydneyDevelopmentsupplypipeline2015-2028F

1,500,000

1,200,000

300,000

completemmunderconstruction

DAApprovedDevelopmentApplicationstage

Historic10-yearAverage

FIGURE4:Developmentsupply2026F-2028FFloorspaceshare,byprecinct

Tonote:Reflectsnewprojects>5,000sqm.source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

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LeasingMarket

Risingincentivesweighoneffectiverentgrowth

sydney'saveragesuperprimenetfacerentshaveremainedflatoverthequarter,primeand

secondarynetfacerentsincreasedby0.5%and0.3%(q-o-q),respectively.onay-o-ybasis,superprimerentsincreasedby2.6%,whileprimeandsecondaryrentsgrewby2.8%and2.5%,

respectively.

onay-o-ybasis,theMetrowestprecinctsawthestrongestgrowthinsuperprimefacerents,rising4.0%,followedcloselybythecentralwestprecinctwitha3.4%growth.

Neteffectiverentsdeclinedacrosssuperprimegradeassetsin4Q25,asrisingincentivesoffset

facerentalgrowth,fallingby0.4%.primeandsecondarygradesroseoverthequarterhoweverby0.2%and0.0%,respectively.superprimeincentivelevelsroseby40bpsoverthequarterandnowaverage19%.

currentexpectationsarethatincentivesacrossmostprecinctswillcontinuetorise,peakingaround4Q26,asthecy26forwardpipelinesitsapproximately110%abovethelong-runaverage.From2027onwards,incentivesareexpectedtocomeunderdownwardpressureasthesupplypipeline

contractssignificantly.

sydney'svacancyrateedgedupto2.9%asof2H25,althoughremainsrelativelylow.southsydneyexperiencedthemostsignificantincrease,up68bpsoversixmonths.Riseinsouthsydney

vacancywasdrivenbyleaseexpiriesrollingvacantandslowerbackfillingofexistingstock,resultinginnegativenetabsorption.

Averageoutgoingsacrossallassetgradesremainedflatin4Q25,whilerising5.0%y-o-y,followingverymodestgrowthin1Q25andconsecutivesharpq-0-qincreasesofaround2%in2Q25and3Q25.withstatutorychargesaccountingforapproximately80%oftotaloutgoings,themidyearuplift

largelyreflectedthetimingofstatutorycostresetsflowingthrough.Althoughoutgoingsstabilisedin4Q25,thecumulativeincreaseinoccupancycostsovertheyearlimitedtenants'capacityto

absorbfurtherrentalgrowth,contributingtoamoderationinrentgrowthinthesecondhalfofthe

FIGURE5:AveragesydneyNetEffectiveRentGrowthy-o-y,byAssetGrade(20152025)

superprimeprimesecondary

FIGURE6:AveragesuperprimeNetFaceRents,byprecinct(2015-2025)

outerNorthwestoutersouthwestsouthsydney

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

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Landvalues

Landvaluesshowresiliencein2025

Demandfor0.25ha,1.6haand3-5haindustrialzonedlandremainedsteadyoverthequarter.onay-o-ybasis,0.25halotsand1.6halotswereunchangedand3-5halotsincreasedby1.4%.

ongoinguncertaintyaroundinterestratesandelevatedcapitalcostshaspromptedinstitutional

investorstotakeacautiousapproachtolandacquisitions.Higherborrowingcostshaveincreaseddevelopmentfundingrequirementsandcompressedmargins,limitingspeculativeactivity.TheRBAmaintaineditscashrateat3.6%inDecember2025,followinga25bpreductioninAugust,keepingborrowingcostsattheirlowestlevelsinceApril2023.Despitepersistentglobalrisksanddomesticuncertainties,underlyingfundamentalscontinuetosupportinvestorconfidenceinstrategically

locatedland.

Highconstructioncostsandrisingpricesforkeymaterials,combinedwithstrongeconomicrents,haveconstrainedthefeasibilityofnewwarehousedevelopment.AccordingtocBREResearch,

economicrentsinsydneyhaverisenbetween6090%overthepastfiveyears,dependingonprecinctandremainroughly12%abovemarketlevelsasatDecember2025.Manyprojectsarefinanciallyunviablebecausemarketrentsareinsufficienttocoverdevelopmentcosts,reducingforwardsupplyandsupportingexistinglandvalues.

owner-occupierscontinuetoactivelypursueland,oftentakingalonger-termoperationalview.Theirsustaineddemand,coupledwithlimitedspeculativedevelopment,reinforcesstabilityinlandvalues.

Inner-cityprecincts,includingsouthsydneyandNorthsydney,remainstandoutperformers.scarcelandavailabilityandproximitytothecBDhavepushedlandvaluesintheseareastomorethan

doublethoseinouterwesternprecincts,highlightingthepremiumforstrategicallylocatedindustrialsites.Industriallandinwell-positionedinner-citylocationsisexpectedtocontinuebenefitingfrom

strongdemandoverthemediumterm.

FIGURE7:AverageLandvalues(0.25halots),byprecinct(4Q24vs.4Q25)

4Q244Q25

FIGURE8:AverageLandvalues(1.6halots),byprecinct(4Q24vs.4Q25)

w4Q24n4Q25

source:CBREResearchQ42025

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InvestmentMarket

Investmentsalessurpass10-yearavcrage

AtotalofAUD624millionininvestmentsaleswasrecordedin4Q25across15transactions(≥AUD5million).AnotabledealduringthequarterwasDexus'ssaleof32sargentsRoad,

Minchinbury,forAUD78million,aspartoftheperfectpairportfolio.

Totalinvestmentsalesfor2025reachedapproximatelyAUD3.4billionacross82transactions,

around7%abovethe10yearaverageofAUD3.1billion.Lookingahead,asteadiershort-term

outlookforinvestmentactivityisexpectedasinvestorsadoptacautiousapproachinresponsetoinflationvolatilityandhigherdebtcosts.

Reflectingongoingdemandfortop-tierstock,superprimemidpointyieldscompressedslightly

from5.19%to5.17%.primeandsecondaryyieldsremainedstableat5.50%and5.81%,respectively.In2026,superprimeyieldsareexpectedtotightenonlymarginallyuntilinflationarypressuresarebettermanaged.

FIGURE9:superprimeMidpointyield,byprecinct

currentyieldQOQchange(RHS)●yoychange(RHS)

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURE10:sydneyIndustrialInvestmentsales(greaterthanAUD5million)

centralwest

Innersouthwest

Macquariepark

Metrowest

Northshore

Northsydney

outerNorthwest

outersouthwest

southsydney

—-Historic10-yearAverage

Tonote:Doesnotincludeland/developmentsales.

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

FIGURE11:AveragesydneyNetFaceRents,byAssetGrade(2015-2025)

superprimeprimesecondarysource:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURE12:AveragesydneyHistoricaloutgoings,2015-2025(excludesstrataandHi-Tech)

AUD/sqm

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURE13:AveragesydneysuperprimeRentsandIncentives(2015-2025)

Incentives(RHS)NetEffectiveRentNetFaceRent

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURE14:Midpointsydneyyields,byAssetGrade(2015-2025)

source:CBREResearchQ42025

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|Q42025

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FIGURE15:AverageLandvalues(0.25halo