世界经济论坛麦肯锡2026年全球合作晴雨表第三版

Third

EditionImages:AdobeStock,Getty

ImagesContentsForeword

3Executivesummary

4AbouttheGlobalCooperation

Barometer5Introduction:Theevolutionofglobalcooperation7Theviewsofexpertsandexecutives

on

cooperation101

Thefive

pillarsoftheGlobalCooperation

Barometer11Pillar

1:Tradeand

capital

11Pillar2:Innovationandtechnology

15Pillar3:Climateand

natural

capital

18Pillar4:Healthand

wellness

21Pillar5:Peaceand

security

24Recommendations:Strategiesfornewformsofcooperation27Appendix28Contributors31Endnotes

32DisclaimerThisdocumentis

published

bytheWorld

Economic

Forumasacontributionto

a

project,

insight

area

or

interaction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedherein

are

a

resultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitated

andendorsedbytheWorld

Economic

Forumbutwhoseresultsdo

not

necessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorld

EconomicForum,nor

the

entirety

of

its

Members,Partnersorother

stakeholders.©2026World

Economic

Forum.All

rightsreserved.

No

part

of

this

publication

maybereproducedortransmitted

in

anyformorbyany

means,

including

photocopyingandrecording,or

by

any

informationstorage

and

retrieval

system.TheGlobalCooperationBarometer20262basedand,

most

importantly,still

present.

It

isthis

last

pointthat

isworth

underlining.

Namely,thebarometerfindsthat,

intheface

ofstrongheadwinds,cooperation

isstilltaking

place,albeit

indifferentformsthan

inthe

past.The

resiliency

ofcooperation,even

ifnot

at

needed

levels,

islikely

basedonsharedassessments

aroundthe

worldthat

it

makessense.Theonlywayto

deliverwidespreadeconomicgrowth,capturetheopportunitiesofartificial

intelligence

(AI)andadvanceglobalsecurity

isthroughaligned

action.The

paradox

isthat,atatimeof

such

rapid

change,

developing

newand

innovativeapproachestocooperation

requires

refocusingonsomeofthe

basics–

notably,doublingdownon

dialogue.This

building

blockofcollaboration(open,

honest,

constructiveengagement)isindangerofdegradation,replaced

byone-way

positioningstatements

meant

to

holdgroundandentrench

positions

ratherthan

advance

progress.Takingstepsforwardtoaddress

global

prioritiescanonly

happen

ifpartiesfirst

talk

withoneanothertofind

commonality.Withthis

in

mind,theWorld

Economic

Forumand

McKinsey&Company

presentthisedition

ofthe

GlobalCooperation

Barometer.The

reportoffers

stakeholders

insight

both

into

howcooperation

is

taking

placeandwhat

leaderscandoto

advance

collaboration

ina

more

uncertainera.It

isa

pleasureto

releasethisyear’s

edition

oftheGlobalCooperation

Barometer.Thisthirdeditioncomesat

atime

of

consequential

globaltransformation,when

leadersaroundtheworldare

notonly

lookingto

stay

ontopofrapidglobal

developments

but

betterunderstandtheir

implicationsandanticipateand

shapewhat

maytake

place

next.Uncertaintyand

unpredictabilityare

beingfuelledby

historicchangesacrossseveralfronts.

Economic

architecturesaretransformingas

politicalandgeostrategicconsiderations

increasingly

informnewdynamicsoftrade.Similarly,theformula

forstability

is

under

revision,as

new

powerdynamics

areaffectingsecuritycalculations

inseveral

regions.

Further,technologysystemsare

poisedto

reshape

labour

marketsandsocieties,offering

possibilities

butalso

new

risks.Thesedynamicsare

leadingmanycountriesto

lookinward

and

reconsider

theirglobaloutlookthrougha

domestic

prism.Withinthiscomplexcontext,one

certaintyremains–cooperativeapproachesarevital

foradvancingcorporate,

nationalandglobal

interests.Thisyear’sGlobalCooperation

Barometershows

whatcooperation

looks

like

intoday’sever-changing

landscape:

more

bespoke,

more

interest-TheGlobalCooperationBarometer2026ForewordBobSternfelsGlobal

Managing

Partner,McKinsey&CompanyBørge

BrendePresident

and

CEO,World

Economic

ForumTheGlobalCooperationBarometer20263January2026The2026GlobalCooperation

Barometer

slevelofoverallcooperationwas

largely

unchanged

from

previousyears,

butthecompositionofcooperationappearstobechanging.

Metricsrelatingto

multilateralismweakened

most.

Metrics

inwhich

moreflexibleandsmallerarrangementsofcooperationcanoperatein

dataflows,

services

tradeandselectcapitalflows,for

example

have

continuedtogrow,

including

in2025.Thesedynamicsarevisible

in

each

ofthefive

pillarsofthe

barometer:Tradeandcapitalcooperationflattened.Cooperation

remainedabove2019values,but

its

makeup

isshifting.Goodsvolumesgrew,albeitslowerthantheglobal

economy,

andflowsareshiftingto

morealigned

partners.

Servicesandselectcapitalflows

showmomentum,

particularlyamongalignedeconomies,especiallywheretheycancontributetobolsteringdomesticcapabilities.

Whiletheglobal

multilateraltradesystemfaces

rising

barriers,smallercoalitionsofcountriesarecooperatingthrough

initiatives

suchasthe

Futureof

Investment

andTrade

(FIT)

Partnership.Innovationandtechnologycooperationroseto

unlocknewcapabilities

even

amidtightercontrols.

ITservicesandtalentflowsare

up,and

international

bandwidth

is

nowfourtimes

largerthan

beforetheCOVID-19pandemic.

Restrictionsonflowsofcriticalresources,technologiesand

knowledgeexpandedespecially,

but

notonly,

betweenthe

USandChina.

However,

newcooperation

formatsare

rising,with

instancesofcooperation

onartificial

intelligence

(AI),5G

infrastructureandothercutting-edgetechnologiesamong

alignedcountries.Climateandnaturalcapitalcooperationgrew,

but

isstillshortofglobal

goals.

Increased

financingandglobalsupplychains

stimulateddeploymentofcleantechnologies,whichreached

record

levels

in

mid-2025.WhileChina

accountedfortwo-thirdsofadditionsofsolar,

windandelectricvehicles,other

developingeconomiesstepped

up.As

multilateralnegotiations

become

morechallenging,groups

ofnationsforexample,the

European

Union

(EU)andASEAN

(AssociationofSoutheastAsian

Nations)arecombiningdecarbonization

withenergysecurity

goals.Healthandwellnesscooperationheldsteady,withoutcomesresilientfor

now,butaid

is

undersevere

pressure.Toplinecooperation

inthis

pillardid

notfall,

in

partbecause

healthoutcomescontinuedto

improve

aftertheendofthe

COVID-19

pandemic.Although

healthoutcomes

havestayed

resilient,

thestability

masksgrowingfragility.

Pressures

on

multilateralorganizations

haveerodedsupportflows,anddevelopmentassistancefor

health(DAH)contracted

sharplywith

furthertightening

in2025affecting

lowand

middle-incomecountries

mostacutely.Peaceandsecuritycooperationcontinuedtodecrease,aseverytracked

metricfell

below

pre-COVID-19

pandemic

levels.Conflictsescalated,

militaryspending

roseandglobalmultilateral

resolution

mechanismsstruggledtode-escalatecrises.

Bytheend

of

2024,the

numberofforciblydisplaced

people

reacheda

record

123

millionglobally.1

Still,growingpressuresarecreatingan

impetusfor

increased

cooperationincludingthrough

regionalpeacekeeping

mechanisms.Since

keychallengesand

importantopportunities

cannot

beaddressed

by

individualcountriesalone,

leadersshouldanticipateshiftsand

move

proactivelyto

“re-map”

internationalengagement;

strengthen

resilience

by

building

newcapabilities;

andfindnewforumstocooperate

matchingthe

rightformattothe

right

issue.ExecutivesummaryGlobalcooperation

holdssteady,

but

itsshape

is

evolving.TheGlobalCooperationBarometer20264responses

received,

171were

used

basedoncompleteness.Asecondsurveywasconducted

online

using

McKinsey

s

proprietaryglobalsurvey

panelofindustryexecutives

and

was

inthe

fieldfrom27Augustto5September

2025.

It

garnered

responsesfrom799

participants

in81economies

representingthefull

rangeofregions,

industries,companysizes,functionalspecialitiesandtenures.The

methodology

usedforthe

metricsoftheGlobal

Cooperation

Barometer

is

below.

Detailsonthesourcingofindividual

metricsare

intheAppendix.DatacoverageGeography:Acrossallmetrics,thebarometer

aims

tocollectglobaldata.

In

most

cases,an

aggregate

globalweightedaverage

isavailable.Whenaglobalweightedaverage

is

notavailable,the

most

comprehensivedata

is

usedsuchasOrganisation

for

EconomicCo-operationand

Development(OECD)

membercountries,ora

sample

set

of

countrieswheredata

isavailablefor

allyears.Years:Whilethe

barometer

measurescooperation

from2012through2024,some

metricsdo

not

have

dataforallyears.All

metrics

have2020

datatoensurethe

indexedtrendlinecan

becalculated.IndexcalculationToevaluateglobalcooperationfairly

and

compare

trendlinesoftheactionandoutcome

metrics

across

thefive

pillars,theGlobalCooperation

Barometerappliesthefollowing

methodology:IndexedtrendlinesDatafrom2020serves

asthe

baseyear

todevelopcomparabletrendlines,withallvalues

in2020equalto

one

(2020

=

1).This

baseyearstandardization

isthe

basisofthescore

calculation,enablinga

uniform

reference

point

forall

metricsandcomparability,

despitedifferent

unitsanddatasets.DatanormalizationWhere

possible,

metricsare

normalizedtoensurethattrendlinescan

be

assessedindependentlyoftheeffectsofeconomic

growth

or

populationchanges.

Forexample,trade,capitalandotherfinancialflowsare

normalized

toglobalGDP(gross

domestic

product)

while

migration

metricsare

normalizedtoglobalpopulation

levels.TheGlobalCooperation

Barometer

isstructured

alongfivedimensionsofglobalconnection:

trade

andcapital,

innovationandtechnology,climate

and

naturalcapital,

healthandwellness,andpeaceand

security.Thesefive

pillarswerechosen

becauseoftheirimpactonglobaldevelopment

andtheir

explicitdependenceoncooperativeeffortsamong

nations

andeconomies.Asaguiding

element

intheanalysis,the

barometer

identifiedgoalsthatactors

areworkingtowards

ineachofthesethemes.Indoingso,the

barometerdraws

inspirationfrom

the

United

NationsSustainable

DevelopmentGoals

(SDGs)andtheeffortsof

other

global

institutions.Toquantifychange

inthese

pillars,41

indicatorswere

identifiedthat

researchsuggestsareeithercooperativeactionsthatadvanceprogresstowardsthegoalsofthe

pillarsor

demonstrate

a

broadoutcomefromthoseactions.Cooperativeactionmetrics

measureactionsthat

provideevidenceofcooperation;these

indicators(suchasflows

of

goodsandexchangeof

intellectual

property)areevidenceofreal,

manifestedcooperation

and

donotinclude

“onpaper”commitments.Outcomemetrics

(suchas

lifeexpectancy)

measuretheprogressofcooperation

butaretypically

influenced

byadditionalfactorsbeyond

cooperation.The

metricsspancountries

inall

geographiesandatall

levelsof

development.The

barometerexaminestheperiodfrom2012to

2024

toestablishatrend

lineofcooperation.

It

indexesdatato2020forthefollowing

reason:as

theCOVID-19

pandemic(hereafter

referredtoas“the

pandemic”)tookhold,

itaccelerated

manyexistingtrends

in

businessandsocietyand

setmany

newones

in

motion.

Indexingthetimeseries

to2020

highlightsthetrends

in

place

beforethepandemicandthosethatemergedfrom

it.

Note

thatsome

metrics

have

been

invertedsothatany

increase

representsa

positivedevelopment.Thoughthistool

is

imperfectand

necessarily

incomplete,

itoffersanoverview

of

globalcooperationthatbothcaptures

broadtrends

and

identifies

important

nuances.Thisyear

s

report

includesthe

resultsoftwosurveys.TheGlobalCooperation

Barometersurveycollected

responsesfrom

1Septemberto26September2025fromtheWorld

Economic

Forum

s

NetworkofGlobal

FutureCouncilsthrough

aQualtricselectronic

platform.Current

membersof

the

network(thosewhoare

partofthe

20252026

term)andthosewhoservedon

a

council

duringthe

previousterm

(20232024)

receiveda

link

totake

part

inthesurvey.Out

ofa

total

of

224AbouttheGlobalCooperationBarometerTheGlobalCooperationBarometer20265TradeandcapitalPromote

global

development

and

resilienceFocusofanalysis

ison

1)developmentand

resilient

outcomes;through2)

presenceofglobaleconomicflowsthat

promote

likelyopportunitiesforthese

outcomesInnovationandtechnologyAccelerateinnovationandbeneficialtechnologicalprogressFocusofanalysis

ison

1)global

progress

in

innovationandtechnology;

through

2)

presence

oftheglobalsharingofunderlying

knowledgethatcontributesto

these

outcomes

by

fostering

collaborationacrossglobaltalentPeaceandsecurityPreventandresolve

conflictsFocusofanalysis

ison

1)

preventionofdeathand

long-term

negative

implications

of

conflict;through,2)commitmentto

multilateral

peacekeepingoperationsand

internationalstabilization

effortsHealthandwellnessEnableglobalpopulationtolead

longerand

better

livesFocusofanalysis

ison

1)

impactofthe

burdenof

disease

on

duration

and

quality

of

life;

through2)commitmenttoglobalpublic

healthstandards

and

collaboration

through

flows

ofgoods,

R&D/IPand

healthfinancingClimateandnaturalcapitalSupporttheresolutionofclimateandnaturalcapitalchallengesFocusofanalysis

ison

1)

loweringofemissions,

preservation

of

natural

capital,

and

preparedness

for

likely

impactofclimatechange;through,2)shared

global

goals/commitmentsthat

increasehumanity’sabilityto

limitandadapttothedynamics

ofa

changing

climateAnoteontheanalyticalapproachIn

linewith

previouseditionsofthe

GlobalCooperation

Barometer,thisedition

usesdatafrom

twoyearspriortopublication,as

it

isthe

most

recent

yearforwhichcomprehensivedataare

available.Given

rapiddevelopmentsacrossallthe

areasthe

barometercovers,thisyear’s

reportcomplements

the2024findingswithmorerecent2025

datawhere

available,throughpartial-yeardataorprojections.–

WeightingEach

pillarcomprisestwo

indices:anaction

indexandanoutcome

index.

To

arrive

ateach,the

metricswithinareweightedequally

(i.e.theaction

index

isa

simple

averageofmetrics

measuringcooperativeactions).

Theoverall

indexfora

pillar

is

calculatedasanaverageofthe

action

and

outcomemetrics.Aggregate

indicesacross

pillarsare

alsocalculatedasa

simple

average

of

pillar

indices(i.e.equalweighting

across

pillars).TheGlobalCooperationBarometer’sfivepillarsofglobalcooperationTheGlobalCooperationBarometer20266FIGURE

1andtechnologyandclimateand

natural

capitalpillars

(Figure3),often

inareaswhere

domesticinterestoreconomic

incentivesare

convergingwithglobalgoals.

Inthecase

of

innovation

andtechnology,cross-borderdataflowsand

digitalservicesfuelledcollaborationascountries

racetoexpandtheircapabilitiesfor

a

new

era

oftechnology-driveneconomies;while

inclimateand

naturalcapital,advancements

infinancingandglobaltradeenabled

moreclean

power

and

electrictransport,especially

in

placeswheregoals

ofemissions

reduction,

increasedaffordabilityand

increasedenergysecurityconverged.Thetradeandcapital

pillarshows

a

flatteningofcooperation;while

it

remainsabovethe2019

level,with

momentum

inservicesandcapitalflows,goodstrade

has

been

hit

byprotectionist

headwinds.Still,

it

is

notablethattrade

is

not

meaningfully

retreating

but

ratherreconfiguringacrossdifferent

partners.Theflatteningofcooperation

in

healthandwellnessalsoencompassesdistinctdynamics.

Most

health

outcomesstandabovepre-COVID-19

pandemic

(hereafter

referredtoas“the

pandemic”)

levels.However,theseoutcomesarea

function

oflong-rundevelopments,whichcould

reverse

in

thefuture.

Pressureon

multilateralorganizations

haserodeddevelopmentassistance,

materially

increasingthe

loadondomestic

budgetsandcreatingchallengesforthefutureof

health

in

the

mostvulnerable

places.The

peaceandsecurity

pillarstands

out

asexperiencingthegreatestdecline,as

every

metricis

below

pre-pandemic

levels.This

pillarexhibitssharpdeterioration,asglobaltensions

escalate

and

multilateralmechanismsarenotaddressing

conflicts.Asa

newglobaleratakes

shape,

multilateralismis

understrain,evenas

global

cooperationcontinuestodeliver

insome

keyareas.The

world

hasseencontinuedfragmentation,astrade

barriers

haveescalated,

levelsofmistrust

have

remainedhighandgeopoliticaltensions

have

beenan

ever-

presentoverhang.Conflicts

have

intensifiedacross

several

regionsandforceddisplacement

reached

record

levels.2Inthissoberingcontext,theGlobal

CooperationBarometer’s

measurementofoverallcooperationhas

heldsteady

(Figure2).While

stresstotheglobalcooperativesystem

may

not

besurprising,the

resilienceofoverallcooperationmay

be.Althoughcooperationtiedtoglobalmultilateralism(which

reliesoncommon

goalsandactionsoftenadvancedthrough

internationalinstitutions)

has

largelydeclined,cooperationthroughalternative,oftenflexibleand

purpose-built

coalitions

hascontinued.

Most

notably,cooperation

amongsmallergroupsofcountries

has

persistedaseconomiescontinuetofindvalue

inworkingwitheachotherthrough

pragmatic,agile,

interest-

based

partnerships.3

Thisdynamic

isoftendubbed

“minilateralism”orsometimes

“plurilateralism”.4The

result

isthatcooperation

isfarfromdead.Intracking41

individual

metrics,the

barometershows

howcooperation

isadaptingtoa

newcontext.

Mostcooperation

metrics

remainabovetheir2019

levels,andall

pillars

except

peace

and

securityshowstrong

positive

momentum

inat

least

someareas.

Evidencesignalsthesetrends

havepersistedthrough2025.Looking

moreclosely,the

barometershowsincreasing

levelsofcooperationforthe

innovationIntroduction:Theevolution

ofglobalcooperationWithglobal

multilateralcooperationconfrontingchallenges,smallerand

moreadaptivecooperativecoalitionsareemerging.

Cooperationamongsmallergroupsofcountries

haspersistedaseconomiescontinuetofindvalueinworkingwitheachotherthroughpragmatic,

interest-basedpartnerships.TheGlobalCooperationBarometer20267Source:Aggregation

of41metrics,

McKinsey&Company

analysis.WhycooperationisevolvingPressureon

institutionsandarrangementsthatsupportglobal

multilateralcooperation

has

beenbuildingforoveradecade

and

a

half.The

aftermath

ofthe2008Global

FinancialCrisis

was

markedbya

longtailofgrowing

dissatisfaction

in

theglobalized

internationalsystem,withaslowdown

inthegrowthoftheshares

oftrade

and

cross-

borderfinance

intheglobaleconomy.5Iftheyears

immediatelyfollowingtheGlobalFinancialCrisiswerea

period

of

brewingcooperative

malaise,the

most

recentfiveyears

deliveredaseriesofacute

shocks

that

tested

theveryconstructofglobal

multilateralism.The

pandemic,the

Russia–Ukraineconflictandresultingenergyshock,escalatingconflict

in

many

regionsand

more

interventionisttrade

policiesall

rattled

long-held

normsandsystems

underpinning

cooperation.Theseshocks

havesharpeneddebatesover

howto

balancedomestic

imperatives

withsharedobjectives–fromemissions

cuts

and

securitytocompetitivenessanddevelopment–andthey

have

promptedthesystem’sownstewardstocallfor

renewaland

reform,

includingFIGURE2GlobalCooperationBarometerovertimeGlobalCooperation

Barometerovertime1.21.1

Climate

and

natural

capitalInnovationandtechnologyTradeandcapital1.0theWorldTradeOrganization

(WTO),the

United

Nations

(UN)andtheWorld

Bank.6Astheseshocks

have

rippledaroundtheworld,they

have

reshaped,

ratherthanshattered,thecontoursofcooperation.To

besure,cooperation

has

receded

in

manyareas

(notably,as

mentioned,

regardingglobal

multilateralismandglobalsecurity

andtrade).Yetfiveyearsonfromthe

start

ofthepandemic,a

new,

nuanced

pictureofcooperation

isstartingtoemerge–one

in

which

cooperationisadaptingtoa

more

multipolar

reality,andwhere

economiesarestill

pursuingglobalobjectives,

but

focusingonwhereandwhenthey

see

it

as

aviable

pathwaytoadvancetheir

respective

priorities.TheGlobalCooperation

Barometer

reflectstheretreatfromglobal

multilateralism,as

metricstiedto

multilateral

mechanisms

havedropped(Figure3).

Forexample,

bythe

end

of2024,peacekeepingactivity,

multilateral

resolutionsand

healthaid

hadalldropped

by

morethan20%sincethe

pre-pandemic

levelof2019,despitethe

numberofconflictsandthe

needfor

humanitarianassistance

increasing

inthesame

period.

In2024alone,foreignaid

dropped

by11%,atrendthat

has

beenexacerbated

in2025.OverallHealthandwellnessPeaceandsecurity

Fiveyearsonfromthestartofthe

pandemic,anew,

nuancedpictureofcooperationis

startingtoemerge.20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320240.90.80.70.6TheGlobalCooperationBarometer20268FIGURE3Evolution

by

pillar:2022–24compound

annual

growth

rate(CAGR)compared

to2019–24CAGR1.Average

across

official

development

assistance(ODA),

development

assistance

for

health

(DAH),

International

Health

Regulations

(IHR)

score,

ratio

of

UNSecurityCouncilresolutionstoconflicts,ratioof

multilateral

peacekeeping

operations

to

conflicts.Source:Aggregation

of41metrics,

McKinsey&Company

analysis.the

launchoftheAfrican

MedicinesAgency

inOctoberandtheAccraCompactonAfrican

health

sovereignty,aswellastheOrganisation

of

Eastern

CaribbeanStatesscalinga

modelto

reducethepriceofinsulinthroughoutthe

region.10Asageneral

rule,across

all

pillars,

cooperationis

highestwherethereareclear

national

interests–

ofteneconomic–

bindingcountries.This

mayreflectwhat

UNSecretary-GeneralAntónioGuterres

called“hard-headedpragmatism”–thenotionthat

cooperation

makessensewhendoingsoyieldsmeaningful

mutual

benefit.11Importantly,whilethe

pressureonglobalmultilateralism

has

increased,thestory

is

notoneof

asystem

infullcollapse.

In

May2025,Worl