【未来能源研究所】保护与社区：保护区计划对当地经济的影响-2026.1

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomic

ImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgram

Yanjun(Penny)Liao,MatthewWibbenmeyer,HannahDruckenmiller,RichardIovanna,AlexandraThompson,andBrandonHolmes

Report26-02January2026

AbouttheAuthors

Yanjun(Penny)LiaoisaneconomistandfellowatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF).

Liao’sresearchprimarilyfocusesonissuesofnaturaldisasterriskmanagementand

climateadaptation.Shehasstudiedtheimpactsofdisastersonlocalgovernment

budgets,housingmarkets,anddemographicchanges.Herongoingworkinvestigateshowdisasterinsuranceinteractswiththehousingandmortgagesector,aswellastheeconomicandfiscalimpactsofadaptationpoliciesonlocalcommunities.LiaoearnedherPhDineconomicsfromUCSanDiegoandconductedherpostdoctoralresearchat

theWhartonRiskCenteratUniversityofPennsylvania.

MatthewWibbenmeyerisafellowatRFF.Wibbenmeyer’sresearchstudiesclimate

impactsandmitigationwithintheUSlandsector,withaspecialemphasisonwildfire

impactsandmanagement.USwildfireactivityhasacceleratedinrecentyears,leadingtoincreasesinpropertydamages,carbonemissions,andhealthimpactsduetosmoke.

HannahDruckenmillerisanassistantprofessorofeconomicsandaWilliamH.Hurt

ScholarattheCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology(Caltech).Druckenmillerisalsoa

universityfellowatRFF,researchfellowattheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch,andanafiliateofCaltech’sLindeCenterforScience,Society,andPolicy.ShereceivedherPhDinAgriculturalandResourceEconomicsfromUCBerkeley.Herresearchaims

toprovideempiricallybasedestimatesfortheenvironmentalbenefitsandeconomic

costsassociatedwithnaturalresourceprotection.

RichardIovannaisasenioragriculturaleconomistattheUSDepartmentofAgricultureFarmProductionandConservationBusinessCenter.Priortohiscurrentrole,hewasanEconomistattheUSEnviornmentalProtectionAgency.HeearnedhisMasterofPublic

AfairsatPrincetonUniversity.Iovanna’sresearchfocusesoneficientconservation

programdesign,particularlyonpracticeadoption,setcompetitiveincentives,

ecologicalimpacts,andeconomicbenefitsoftheseprogramsforagriculturallands.

AlexandraThompsonisaseniorresearchassociateandtheGeographicInformation

System(GIS)CoordinatoratRFF.Thompsonisanexpertonusingspatialdatato

addressenvironmentalandsocioeconomicchallenges.Hercurrentefortsarefocused

onunderstandingnationallanduseandprotectionpathwaysforclimatetransitions

andefectsofsealevelriseontheChesapeakeBayagriculturaleconomy.

BrandonHolmesjoinedRFFasaresearchanalystinOctober2023.Beforeworking

atRFF,HolmesearnedhisMScinEnvironmentalandNaturalResourceEconomicsat

DurhamUniversityintheUnitedKingdom,writinghisthesisontheimpactofflood

zoningonhousepriceswithrespecttopropertyelevation.AnativeoftheWashington,DCarea,HolmeshaspreviouslyinternedattheEnvironmentalLawInstitute,theAES

Corporation,andworkedasanenvironmentaljusticeresearchassistantattheEarth

HouseCenterinOakland,California.

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ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgramii

Disclaimer

ThefindingsandconclusionsinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeconstruedtorepresentanyoficialUSDepartmentofAgricultureorUSGovernmentdeterminationorpolicy.

AboutRFF

ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutionin

Washington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFis

committedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.

TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydiferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsoficers,oritsdirectors.

SharingOurWork

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ResourcesfortheFutureiii

ExecutiveSummary

TheConservationReserveProgram(CRP),thenation’slargestworking-lands

conservationprogram,retiresenvironmentallysensitivecroplandinexchangeforrentalpayments.WhileCRP’secologicalbenefitsarewelldocumented,itssocioeconomic

efectsonruralcommunitiesarelessunderstood,thoughtheyarecentraltoongoingpolicydebatesregardingtheprogram’sfuture.ThisreportprovidesacomprehensivenationalassessmentofCRP’simpactsonpropertyvaluesovertheperiod2012–2022,andonruralbusinessactivity,employment,andmigrationfrom2001to2022.The

analysisyieldsseveralkeyinsights.

CRPgeneratesmodestbutmeasurablegainsinnearbyresidentialproperty

values.Usingarepeat-saleshedonicframeworkandadatasetofmorethan12milliontransactions,wefindthatincreasesinCRPenrollmentnearahomeraisesaleprices.

A10-hectareincreaseinCRPlandwithin1kmincreasespropertyvaluesbyabout

0.5–0.7percent.Tree-coverCRPgeneratesthegreatestgains,atroughly2percentforthesameincrement,likelyreflectingsalientaestheticimprovements,wildlifehabitatrestoration,andenhancedrecreationalamenities.BasedoncurrentCRPenrollments,theselocalizedamenitygainsaddanestimated$3billiontoresidentialrealestate

nationwide,orroughly$60millionannually.

CRPenrollmentsupportsruraleconomicactivity,particularlyinagricultural

andlocalserviceindustries.Despitelongstandingconcernsthatretiringcropland

weakensruraleconomies,ouranalysisattheindustry,county,andyearlevelsfindsthatCRPisassociatedwithsmallbutconsistentlypositiveincreasesinruralemployment

andbusinessactivity.A1,000-acreincreaseincountyCRPenrollmentraisesrural

employmentbyroughly0.06percentperyearoverthefirstthreeyears,withgains

taperingofbyyearfive.Onaverage,thisimpliesanadditional8ruraljobsper1,000

acresenrolled.Establishmentcountsshowsimilarpatterns.Efectsarestrongestwithinagricultureandcloselyrelatedindustries,butspilloversappearinretail,recreation,

hospitality,andotherlocalnon-tradablesectors.Theseefectscouldbeexplainedbystabilizedfarmincome,landmanagementlaborneeds,andamenity-drivenrecreationspending.

CRPdoesnotcontributetosustainedruraldepopulation.UsingIRScounty-levelmigrationdata,wefindnoevidencethatCRPacceleratesout-migrationorlong-termpopulationloss.CRPenrollmentisassociatedwithasmall,short-runreductioninnetin-migration(lessthanonebasispoint),butthisefectreverseswithinthreeyears.

Overafive-yearperiod,theprogram’snetefectonmigrationisessentiallyzero.TheseresultscountertheperceptionthatCRPexacerbatesruraldecline.

Overall,thefindingsindicatethattheCRPhassupportedruralcommunities

whiledeliveringsubstantialenvironmentalbenefits.Inrecentyears,theprogram’simpactsonpropertyvalues,localemployment,andsectoralactivityhavebeenpositivebutmoderate,andconcernsaboutdepopulationlinkedtolandretirementarenot

supportedbyempiricalevidence.Fromapolicyperspective,theresultssuggestthattheCRPcanadvanceconservationobjectiveswithoutharmingruraleconomies.Itis

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgramiv

importanttorecognizethatCRPspendingprimarilyrepresentstransferpayments

tolandowners,meaningthattheobservedexternalbenefitstolocalcommunities

constitutenetsocialgains.Aspolicymakersdebatewhethertoparedownor

strengthentheprogram,theseresultsunderscoretheimportanceofconsideringitsbroadersocioeconomicimplications.TheyalsohighlightopportunitiestoalignCRP

designmorecloselywithruraldevelopmentgoals.Inparticular,whiletreecovertendstobemorecostlytoestablishandmaintainthanothercovertypes,itgeneratesthe

mostpronouncedpositiveefectsinbothpropertyandlabormarkets,suggestingthatitsrelativebenefitsmayjustifyitshighercosts.

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgramv

Contents

1.Introduction1

2.Background2

2.1.OverviewoftheConservationReserveProgram2

2.2.CRPEnrollmentPatternsandTrendsinRecentDecades4

2.3.Literature8

3.CRPEnrollmentandPropertyValues9

3.1.PropertyTransactionandParcel-LevelCRPData10

3.2.EfectsofCRPonNearbyPropertyValues10

3.3.Discussion12

4.CRPEnrollmentandRuralEconomies12

4.1.MeasuringRuralBusinessEstablishmentsandEmployment12

4.2.TheAverageEfectsofCRPEnrollmentonRuralIndustries13

4.3.HeterogeneousEfectsbyIndustryGroups15

4.4.HeterogeneousEconomicEfectsbyCoverType17

4.5.Discussion19

5.CRPEnrollmentandMigration20

5.1.MigrationMeasures20

5.2.TheEfectsonMigration21

5.3.HeterogeneousMigrationEfectsbyCoverType22

5.4.Discussion22

6.Conclusion23

References25

AppendixA.AdditionalTablesandFigures28

AppendixB.NETSDataProcessing32

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgram1

1.Introduction

CreatedbytheFoodSecurityActof1985,theConservationReserveProgram(CRP)isthelargestpaymentforecosystemservicesprogramintheUnitedStates(House

CommitteeonAgriculture,1985).Theprogram,whichpaysagriculturalproducers

forretiringecologicallysensitivecroplandsthatfaceahighriskofenvironmental

degradation,currentlyhasabudgetofapproximately$2.2billionperyear,with24.6

millionacres(approximately4percent)ofUScroplandenrolledinlong-termcontractstoprovideconservationbenefits(EconomicResearchService,2024).

Sinceitsinception,theprogramhasfacedconcernsthatretiringlandfromagriculturalproductioncouldweakenruraleconomiesbyreducingdemandforagricultural

servicesandincreasingabsenteelandownershipandout-migration.However,the

program’simpactsaremultifacetedandmayoperatethroughmultiplechannels.For

theagriculturalsector,thenetefectsareequivocal:ontheonehand,landretirementmayreducecropoutputandlowerdemandforagriculturalinputsandservices;ontheotherhand,rentalpaymentshelpstabilizefarmincomesandcansustain—oreven

reallocate—localspending.Morebroadly,byrestoringhabitatandimprovingwaterandsoilquality,CRPcanenhanceenvironmentalamenitiesandsupportrecreation(e.g.,

hunting,wildlifeviewing),generatingdownstreambenefitsforlodging,retail,andguideservices.Aestheticimprovementsfromconvertingcroplandtograsslands,forests,orwetlandsmaycapitalizeintohigherpropertyvaluesandinfluenceresidentiallocationdecisions.Finally,theseforcescanshapemigration:weakerdemandforagricultural

labormayencourageout-migration,whilehigheramenityvaluesandmorestableincomesmayhelpretainorattractresidents,withspilloverstonon-tradablelocalsectors.

TheCRPhasnotbeenupdatedsincethe2018FarmBill,butthereareactivepolicy

debatesregardingtheprogram’sfuture.Project2025proposedeliminatingtheCRP

programentirely(DansandGroves,2023).Ontheotherside,arecentbipartisanbill,

CRPImprovementandFlexibilityAct,introducedintheSenateinJuly2025andintheHouseinSeptember,wouldexpandkeyprovisionsincludingprotectingwildlifehabitat,improvinggrazingaccess,increasingthepaymentlimit,andallowingforemergency

hayinginresponsetodrought.Anin-depthunderstandingofCRP’ssocioeconomicimpactsonruralcommunitiescanprovidevaluableevidencetoinformthesedebatesandguidefutureprogramdesign.

OurmainobjectiveinthisreportistoprovideacomprehensiveevaluationoftheCRP’seconomicimpactsonruralcommunitiesfrom2001to2022.Tocapturethemultiple

channelsthroughwhichtheprograminfluenceslocaleconomies,weanalyzehow

changesinCRPenrollmentoverthisperiodafectpropertymarkets,ruralbusinessesandemployment,andmigrationpatterns.Together,theseoutcomesoferaholisticviewoftheprogram’sbroadergeneralequilibriumefectsandthewaysinwhichCRPenrollmentreshapesruraleconomiclandscapes.

ThelastcomprehensivestudyinasimilarspiritwasconductedbySullivanetal.

(2004);itexaminedtrendsinpopulation,employment,farm-relatedbusinesses,and

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landuseinrelationtoCRPenrollmentfrom1986to2002.However,thisstudylookedatefectsoflargeinitialchangesinCRPlandthatoccurredaftertheestablishment

oftheprogram,whereasmostrelevanttodayaretheefectsofmarginalchangesin

CRPland.Aswell,inthetimesinceSullivanetal.(2004),theprogramhasundergonesubstantialchanges,includingthebroadeningofitsobjectives,adjustmentsto

enrollmentcapsandrentalrates,andnewprovisionsregardingfarmablewetlands

andgrazingoptions.Externaleconomicconditionssuchascommoditypricesand

agriculturallandmarketdynamicshavealsoshiftedovertime.Atthesametime,recentresearchraisesconcernsaboutnon-additionality,showingthatCRPdisproportionatelyenrollsmarginalagriculturallandsthatmayhaveremainedfallowevenwithoutthe

program(RosenbergandPratt,2024;AspelundandRusso,2025).Ifso,thechangesinlandcover,environmentalconditions,ordownstreameconomicoutcomesfrom

enrollingtheseacresmaybelimited.Together,thesedevelopmentsunderscoretheneedtorevisitCRP’seconomicefectsusingupdateddataandempiricalmethodstobetterinformcurrentpolicydebates.

2.Background

2.1.OverviewoftheConservationReserveProgram

ThetotallandareaenrolledintheCRPhasvariedoverthedecadesinresponseto

changesincommoditypricesaswellasfundingandstatutoryacreagecapssetby

evolvingagriculturallegislation(Hellerstein,2017).Enrollmentclimbedrapidlyafter

1986,peakingatnearly36millionacresin2007.Itthenfelltoroughly20.5million

by2021asthecaptightenedandgrainpricesrose,beforereboundingtoabout24.6

millionacresin2024.Theupwardtrajectorysince2021hasbeendueentirelytothe

adventofanewsubprogram,GrasslandCRP,whichisintendedtopreventgrazinglandfrombeingconvertedtootheruses(FarmServiceAgency,2024).Roughly4percentofUScroplandhasbeenidledandiscurrentlyremovedfromproductionaspartof

theCRP.CRPacresareoftendrawnfrommarginallyproductiveorenvironmentally

sensitivecropland,withthehighestintensitiesofCRPenrollmenthistoricallyinwind-proneGreatPlainscounties.Increasingly,CRPlandhasbeenspreadacrosstheUpperMidwestandChesapeakeBaywatersheds(USDepartmentofAgriculture,2020;

FarmServiceAgency,2024).CRPenrollmentextendsacrossmoststates,withTexas,Colorado,SouthDakota,Nebraska,andKansaseachexceeding1.7millionenrolled

acres(FarmServiceAgency,2024).

ParticipationintheCRPisvoluntary,andparticipatinglandownerssign10-to15-yearcontractstoconvertasetamountofcroplandtonativeperennialvegetation(FederalRegister,2019).LandcanentertheCRPthroughtwomainsign-uptracks.General

sign-upisheldannuallyandoperateslikeareverseauction:landownersoferanannualrent,andtheUSDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)rankstheofersusingacompositeenvironmentalbenefitsindex(EBI)(Hellerstein,2017).Thisindexweighsprospectivesoil,water,habitat,andclimategainsagainsttherentalcost.Tokeepbidsinlinewith

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgram3

localmarketconditions,USDAsetsapredeterminedrentceilingforeachoferbased

onrecentcash-rentandsoilsurveys,whichtherentoferedmaynotexceed.The

otherpathway,continuoussign-up,introducedin1996,allowsproducerstoenrolllandforspecifichigh-prioritypracticessuchasriparianbufers,grassedwaterways,filter

strips,wetlandrestorations,andsimilaredge-of-fieldtreatments1atanytimeand

withoutcompetinginanauction.Theseacresqualifyforhigherrentalpaymentsand

cost-sharebecausetheydeliveroutsizedwater-qualityorhabitatbenefitsonrelativelysmallfootprints(FederalRegister,2019).Inbothtracks,participantscommittoplantingandmaintaininganapprovedconservationcover(suchasamixofnativegrasses,

pollinator-richforbs,trees,orshallow-waterwetlandvegetation)forthedurationofthecontract.Failuretomeettheserequirementstriggerstherepaymentofallbenefitswithinterest(FarmServiceAgency,2020a).

SeveraladditionalprogramrulesgoverntheenrollmentofacresintotheCRP.To

beeligible,landmusthaverecentlybeencroppedandmustbeenvironmentally

vulnerable.Afieldmusthavebeenplantedinatleastfouroftheprevioussixcrop

yearsandeitherscoreeightormoreonUSDA’sErodibilityIndexorlieinadesignatedconservationpriorityarea(Stubbs,2022).OneexampleofadesignatedconservationpriorityareaisthePrairiePotholeRegion,whichstretchesacrossmuchoftheUpperMidwestandprovidescriticalhabitatforwaterfowl.CongresssetanationalacreagecapfortheprogramandhasadjusteditovertimetoeitherpromoteenrollmentorlimitCRP’sfootprint.Thecaphasrangedfromahighof45millionacresattheprogram’s

inaugurationin1986toalowof24millionin2014(Stubbs,2022).Inaddition,a

statutorycaprestrictsCRPenrollmenttonomorethan25percentofeachcounty’scropland,unlessUSDA,inconsultationwithlocaloficials,grantsagivencountya

waiver.BecauseCRPremovescroplandfromproduction,ruralstakeholdershavelongvoicedworriesabouttherippleefectsonlocaleconomies.Thecapaimstopreventlarge-scalelandretirementfromundercuttinglocaldemandforfarminputssuch

asseed,fertilizer,equipmentrepairs,andgrain-handlingservices,andtolimitruralpopulationloss.

Whenitwasfirstestablished,theCRP’sgoalsweretocurbsoilerosionandprovide

adependableincomestreamforagriculturalproducers;however,theprogram’s

environmentalobjectiveshavebroadenedwithsuccessivefarmbills.Whilethemainoriginalmotivationfortheprogramwaserosioncontrol,the1990FarmBillelevated

wildlifehabitatandwater-qualityprotectionandintroducedtheEBIsothatbids

oferingthegreatestenvironmentalreturnperdollarwouldbefavored(Sullivanet

al.,2004).Theintroductionofcontinuoussign-upandtheConservationReserve

EnhancementPrograminthe1996FarmBillensuredthattargeted,part-fieldpracticeswhosehighconservationvaluemaynotbeapparentfromtheEBIwereprioritizedforenrollment.The2002FarmSecurityandRuralInvestmentActexpandedthepiloted

1Edge-of-fieldpracticesareconservationmeasuresinstalledatorneartheboundaries

ofagriculturalfieldstointercept,capture,ortreatpollutants(suchassediment,nutri-ents,andpesticides)beforetheyleavethefieldandenteradjacentwaterbodies.Thesepracticesaredesignedtoreducenonpointsourcepollutionfromagricultureandprotectdownstreamwaterquality,andoftenprovideadditionalenvironmentalbenefitssuchashabitatcreationorerosioncontrol.

ResourcesfortheFuture4

FarmableWetlandsProgramnationwide,bringingthousandsofprairiepotholesand

playabasins(shallowwetlandsscatteredacrosstheSouthernHighPlainsandwesternGreatPlains)intotheCRPportfolio(Hellerstein,2017;FederalRegister,2019).

ExistingevidencesuggeststhattheCRPhasimprovedenvironmentaloutcomesalongmultipledimensions.Theprogramisestimatedtohavereducedsoilerosionby200–470milliontonsannually,foratotalof9billiontonssinceitsinception(FarmServiceAgency,2008;CongressionalResearchService,2014;FarmServiceAgency,2020b).

Filterstrips,riparianbufers,andwetlandrestorationsintercepthundredsofmillions

ofpoundsofnitrogenandphosphorusannually,sharplyreducingnutrientloadsthat

reachtheMississippiRiverandGreatLakes(FoodandAgriculturalPolicyResearch

Institute,2007).GrasslandandwetlandhabitatsonCRPlanddrivenotableincreasesinducknestingsuccessinthePrairiePotholeregion,supportuplandgamebirdssuchaspheasantandquail,andbolsterpopulationsofgrasslandsongbirdsthathavedeclinedelsewhere(Drumetal.,2015;Bufingtonetal.,2015).Carbonaccountingplacesannual

sequestrationfromCRPvegetationandsoilsatroughly50millionmetrictonsofcarbon-dioxideequivalent,andcumulativestoragesince1986approaches2billionmetrictons,makingCRPthesinglelargestcarbonsinkonUSprivatefarmland(Stubbs,2022).

2.2.CRPEnrollmentPatternsandTrendsinRecentDecades

Toprovidebackgroundfortheanalysis,thissectiondescribestrendsinCRPenrollmentandthecompositionofenrolledlandcoversince1995.AsshowninFigure1,total

enrollmentintheCRPfluctuatedconsiderablyoverthestudyperiod,shapedby

changingcommodityprices,policycaps,andevolvingconservationpriorities.Duringthelate1990sandearly2000s,totalacresenrolledintheCRPremainedhigh,exceeding30millionacresandpeakingatnearly37millionacresin2007.Thisperiodcoincidedwithstrongsupportfromthe1996and2002FarmBillsandrelativelylowcropprices,whichmadeCRPpaymentsattractivetofarmers.After2007,enrollmentdeclinedsteadilyas

risingcommoditypricesencouragedfarmerstoreturnlandtoproductionandCongressreducedtheacreagecapunderthe2008and2014FarmBills.By2021,CRPacreage

hadfallentoroughly20millionacres,thelowestlevelsincetheprogram’sinception.Insubsequentyears,enrollmentbegantoreboundmodestly.

Overtime,therelativesharesofmajorcovertypesremainedbroadlystable.Grassis

thedominantCRPlandcover;ithasconsistentlyaccountedforover80percentof

enrolledacres.Practicesinvolvingintroducedandnativegrassplantingshavebeenthecornerstoneoftheprogrambecausetheyarecomparativelyinexpensivetoestablish

andmaintainandarewellsuitedtolarge,contiguoustractsofformercropland,makingthemmorecost-efectiveforerosioncontrolandgeneralhabitatrestoration.Treecoverrepresentsasmallerbutimportantshare,typicallyrangingbetween5to10percentof

totalacres.Treeestablishmentincurscostsofsitepreparation,seedlingpurchase,andmaintenanceandmonitoring.Onceestablished,however,forestedCRPlandstendto

providelong-lastingecologicalbenefitssuchascarbonstorage,microclimateregulation,andmulti-layeredwildlifehabitat.Wetlandsmakeupthesmallestportionoftotal

ConservationandCommunity:TheLocalEconomicImpactsoftheConservationReserveProgram5

Figure1.CRPEnrolledAcresbyCoverTypeSince1995

40

TotalAcres(Millions)

30

20

10

200020102020CoverType

GrassTreesWetland

CRPacreagebuttheirrestorationplaysadisproportionatelylargeroleinecological

outcomesbyimprovingwaterquality,mitigatingflooding,andsupportingbiodiversity.Wetlandenrollmentwasinitiallynegligiblebutrosebeginninginthemid-1990sand

stabilizedat