到2030年欧洲联盟电池电动卡车的充电基础设施需求-2026-01-出海研究

THEINTERNATIONALOUNCIL

NCEANTRANSPRTATION

icct

OCTOBER2025

Charginginfrastructure

needsforbatteryelectrictrucksintheEuropean

Unionby2030

HUSSEINBASMAANDJAKOBSCHMIDT

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Salesofbatteryelectrictrucks(BETs)intheEuropeanUnion(EU)havesteadily

increasedoverthepastfewyears.Uptakehasincreasedacrossalltrucksegmentsandtruckingapplications,especiallyamonglight-andmedium-dutytrucksbelow

12tonnes.Thistrendisexpectedtoaccelerateoverthenext5yearsastruck

manufacturersneedtorampupBETsalestocomplywiththeEUcarbondioxide(CO2)reductiontargetsforheavy-dutyvehicles(HDVs).ThisgrowingBETfleetwillrequireanextensivenetworkoftruck-dedicatedcharginginfrastructuretocoverthetrucks

energyneeds.In2023,theEUadoptedtheAlternativeFuelsInfrastructureRegulation(AFIR),whichaimstoensureminimuminfrastructuresupportforalternativefuel

vehicles,includingBETs,byestablishingmandatorytargetsforpublicelectricvehiclechargerdeploymentacrosstheEU.

ThispaperquantifiesBETchargingneedsinthe27EUMemberStates(EU-27)in2030.WeuseamodelingapproachtoestimatethestockofBETsinEU-27;wethenestimatethechargingdemandsofthisfleet,consideringtheenergyconsumption,driving

patterns,andchargingbehaviorofmosttruckclassesandapplicationsintheEU.Thisanalysissupportsthefollowingconclusions:

»TheexpectedBETfleetintheEU-27by2030willrequirebetween22GWand28GWofinstalledchargingpowercapacity.Thisprojectedcapacityissplitalmostequallybetweenpublicandprivatechargers.Thistranslatesto150,000175,000

privatechargersand60,00080,000publicchargers.Thetop5MemberStatesintermsofBETchargingdemandsGermany,Poland,France,Spain,andItalyareexpectedtoaccountformorethan70%ofthetotalchargingneedsintheEU-27,giventheirhighsharesoftheoverallBETstockandtrafficactivityintheregion

(

FigureES

1).

»Overnightchargingisexpectedtobetheprimarychargingmode,whilebetween4,000and5,300megawatt(MW)chargersareprojectedtobeneededby2030.MWchargerscomprisealmost15%oftheprojectedinstalledchargingpowerneedsbutonly2%ofthetotalnumberofchargers.Lower-powerchargers,suchas350

kWchargers,cancovermorethanhalfofthepublicfastchargingneedsforlong-haultrucks.Inaddition,iflong-haultrucksareequippedwithlargerbatteriesin

thefuture(720kWh,relativeto600kWhtoday),theneedforMWchargerscan

bereducedby40%,significantlyreducingthesetrucksrelianceonpublicultrafastcharging(

FigureES

1).

iICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

iiICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

FigureES1

Totalchargingpowerneedsin2030inLowandHighBETuptakescenarios

14

12

10

Totalpower(GW)

8

6

4

2

0

OvernightFast(150–350kW)

Ultrafast(750kW)

HighscenarioLowscenario

172,800

63,900

147,100

12,000

5,300

49,500

10,300

Public

3,000

2,600

Private

4,100

Public

Private

Public

Note:Datalabelsindicatethetotalnumberofchargersineachscenario.

THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

»TheAFIRisexpectedtocoverbetween50%and70%ofpubliccharging

needsintheEU-27by2030.Acrossthecoreroadnetwork,AFIRtargetsare

expectedtocoverbetween65%and85%oftotalchargingneeds,whileacrossthecomprehensiveroadnetwork,coveragedropsto35%–45%(FigureES2).Atthe

MemberStatelevel,AFIRtargetsonlycover30%to50%oftheexpectedpublicchargingneedsinhalfofMemberStates,includingtheNetherlandsandBelgium.ThisisbecauseAFIRdistance-basedtargetsdonotpreciselyreflectactualtrafficactivity,whichresultsinalargegapbetweentheAFIRtargetsandtheactual

chargingneedsforcountriesthathostahighshareoftruckingactivitybutalowshareoftheroadnetwork.TheoppositeistrueforcountrieslikeRomania,wheretheAFIRtargetistwiceashighastheexpectedchargingneeds.

FigureES2

TotalinstalledchargerpowercoveredundertheAFIRversusexpectedpublicchargingneedsunderLowandHighBETuptakescenarios

Core

AFIRyield

TotalneedsLowscenario

TotalneedsHighscenario

Comprehensive

5.631.877.49

6.674.1710.84

8.565.3513.90

0246810121416

Capacity(GW)

THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

iiiICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

WhileAFIRtargetsmaynotcovertheentiretyofprojectedpublicchargingneedsin

2030,theregulation,iffullyimplemented,willensurebasiccoverageandhelpfacilitatethedeploymentofadditionalcharginginfrastructurethroughmarketforces.However,thescaleoftherequiredcharginginfrastructurewillposechallengesforlocalgrids,

especiallyathigh-powerchargingsitesacrosstheTrans-EuropeanTransportNetwork(TEN-T).Inadditiontogridcongestion,lengthypermittingproceduresandinvestmenthurdlesmaydelaythetimelydeploymentoftheinfrastructure.Manyofthose

challengescouldbeaddressedinthereviewoftheAFIRandothercomplementarypoliciesongridplanning,permitting,andinvestment.

Thisanalysissupportsthefollowingpolicyoptionsandconsiderations:

»PromoteinitiativesthatfocusonthedeploymentofHDV-specificcharging

infrastructureacrosskeytransportcorridorsintheEU.Suchinitiativesnotably

includetheCleanTransportCorridorInitiative.Thiswillacceleratecharging

deploymentinkeycorridorsoftheTEN-Tnetworkandenabletheapplicationof

bestpracticestofast-trackandstreamlinetheinfrastructurebuild-outacrossothercorridors.

»Accelerateandstreamlinethecharginginfrastructuredeploymentandgrid

permittingprocesses.CategorizingHDVchargingstationsandtheirconnectiontothegridasprojectsofoverridingpublicinterestcanhelpacceleratepermittingprocedures.Inaddition,streamliningtheprocessacrosstheEUcanreducethe

burdenonchargepointoperatorsandsupportmoreefficientplanning.

»Empowergridoperatorstomakeanticipatoryinvestments.Theexisting

demand-driven,reactiveapproachtogridplanningcansignificantlydelaygrid

upgrades.Proactivegridplanningisessentialtoensurethatcharginginfrastructureisdeployedinatimelymanner.Nationalenergyregulatorscansupportsuch

investmentsthroughproperregulatoryframeworks.

»Promotetransparencyingridhostingcapacitiesandstreamlinethetypeand

formatofreporteddata.Suchmapscanhelpchargepointoperatorsanddepot

ownerscarryoutself-assessmentsofgridconnectionfeasibilityinlocationsof

interest,enablingfasterinvestmentdecisions,shorteningthegridconnectiontime,andreducingtheburdenonlocalgridoperators.

ivICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Executivesummary i

Introduction 1

Policybackground 2

Methodology 3

Truckfleetsalesandstocks 4

Estimatingelectrictrucksalesshares 4

Electrictruckstocks 7

Truckfleetcharginginfrastructureneeds 8

Electrictruckdailyenergyneeds 9

Chargingpatterns 10

Chargerutilizationandlocation 12

Results 14

Projectedchargingneedsin2030 14

ComparingpublicchargingneedswithAFIRtargets 15

MemberState-levelanalysis 17

Sensitivityanalysis 19

Impactofpublicfastandultrafastchargerutilizationrates 19

Impactofpublicandprivateovernightchargingshares 20

Impactofbatterysizeonpublicfastandultrafastchargers 21

Discussion 23

AFIRtargetsandprojectedpublicchargingneeds 23

Overnight,fast,andultrafast(MW)charging 23

MemberStates’chargingneedsandtheAFIRtargets 23

Conclusionsandpolicyconsiderations 25

References 27

Appendix 29

vICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

LISTOFFIGURES

FigureES1

.

Totalchargingpowerneedsin2030inLowandHighBETuptake

scenarios ii

FigureES2

.

TotalinstalledchargerpowercoveredundertheAFIRversus

expectedpublicchargingneedsunderaLowandHighBETuptakescenarios ii

Figure1

.

Schematicofthemethodologyemployedtoquantifythecharging

infrastructureneeds 3

Figure2

.

2022andprojected2030emissionsforconventionaltrucks,by

VECTOgroup 6

Figure

3.

ModeledBETsalesandstocksbetween2025and2030under

theLowscenario 8

Figure

4.

ModeledBETsalesandstocksbetween2025and2030under

theHighscenario 8

Figure

5.

Probabilitydensityfunctionoftrucks’dailymileageforselected

VECTOgroups 10

Figure

6.

Distributionofdailyenergyneedsandchargingpatternfora

long-haul(VECTOgroup5-LH)truck 12

Figure

7.

Totalchargingcapacityneedsfordifferentcharginglocations

andtechnologiesby2030intheLowandHighscenarios 14

Figure

8.

ComparisonoftotalinstalledchargerpowerunderAFIRtargets

withprojectedchargingneedsintheLowandHighscenarios 16

Figure

9.

Comparisonofminimumchargingpowerperpoolunderthe

AFIRtargetswithprojectedchargingneedsintheLowandHighscenarios 17

Figure

10.

Totalprivateandpublicinstalledchargingpowerneedsinthe

EU-27by2030,bycountry 18

Figure1

1.

Ratioofprojectedpublicchargingpowerneedstoapproximate

AFIRtargetsperMemberStatein2030 18

Figure1

2.

Impactofutilizationratesonpublicfastandultrafastcharging

needsintheLowandHighmarketuptakescenarios 20

Figure1

3.

Impactofpublicvs.privateovernightchargingshareson

overnightchargingneeds 21

Figure1

4.

Impactofbatterysizeonpublicfastandultrafastchargingneeds 22

viICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

LISTOFTABLES

Table1

.

SummaryoftheAFIRtargetsforHDVsbetween2025and2030 2

Table2

.

VECTOgroupsconsideredandcategoriesusedinthisanalysis 4

Table3

.

SalessharesofBETundertheHighscenario 7

Table4

.

Energyconsumption,annualanddailymileage,andbatterysizeof

modelyear2030trucks 9

Table5

.

Nominalchargingratesfordifferentchargingtechnologies,

byVECTOgroup 11

Table6

.

Shareofpublicandprivateovernightchargingfordifferent

truckcategories 13

Table7

.

Totalnumberofchargersneededby2030intheLowscenario,

bylocationandtechnology 15

Table8

.

Totalnumberofchargersneededby2030intheHighscenario,

bylocationandtechnology 15

Table9

.

Alternativefastandultrafastchargingutilizationrateassumptions 19

Table10

.

Alternativepublicandprivateovernightchargingrateassumptions 20

Table11

.

Alternativelong-haultractor-trailerbatterysizeassumption 21

TableA1

.

Assumptionsonannualmileage,meandailymileage,and

standarddeviationofthedailymileageperVECTOgroup 29

TableA2

.

Lengthofthecomprehensive(total)andcoreroadnetwork

intheEU-27MemberStates 30

TableA3

.

Batteryelectrictrucks’stockperMemberStateby2030under

LowandHighmarketuptakescenarios 31

TableA4

.

VECTOgroups’mainattributes 32

TableA5

.

Shareoftrafficactivityintonne-kmacrossthecoreand

comprehensivenetworksinEUMemberStates 32

1ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

INTRODUCTION

DecarbonizingtheEuropeanUnion(EU)roadfreightsectorwillrequireasignificantshareofzero-emissiontrucks(ZETs)1coveringabroadspectrumoftrucking

applications,fromlast-miledeliverytolong-haulcross-bordershipping.In2024,over14,000ZETswereregisteredintheEU.Ofthese,3,400wereheavy-dutytruckswithagrossvehicleweight(GVW)above12tonnes,representing1.2%ofheavytrucksales.Light-andmedium-dutytrucksbelow12tonnesrecordeda10%ZETmarketsharein2024,asignificantincreasefromthe6%sharein2023(Mulholland&Ragon,2025).

ThisincreaseinZETsaleshaslargelybeendrivenbyEUheavy-dutyvehicle(HDV)carbondioxide(CO2)standards(Regulation(EU)2024/1610,2024).Afterthe

mostrecentreviewofthestandardsinMay2024,manufacturersmustreducetheir

fleet-wideCO2emissionsby45%by2030relativeto2019.Manufacturersmay

pursuetwomainpathwaystocomplywiththistarget:improvingtheefficiencyof

theirconventionaldieselandnaturalgasvehicles,orincreasingtheirsalessharesof

ZETs.Manufacturersareexpectedtopursueastrategycombiningbothoptions.ThestringencyofthetargetsiswellbeyondtheCO2reductionpotentialofdieselenginetechnology(Basma&Rodríguez,2023),implyingthatmanufacturerscanonlycomplybyrampinguptheirsalesofZETs.

Batteryelectrictrucks(BETs)areexpectedtodominatethesalesofZETsduetotheirtechnologicalmaturityandsuperioreconomicperformance(Basma&Rodríguez,

2023).TheexpectedBETfleetwillrequireanextensivepubliccharginginfrastructurenetworktocoveritsenergyneeds.Tothisend,theEUissuedtheAlternativeFuels

InfrastructureRegulation(AFIR;Regulation(EU)2023/1804,2023),whichaimsto

ensureminimumpublicinfrastructuresupportforalternativefuelvehiclesbysetting

targetsforpublicEVchargerdeploymentthroughouttheEU.2TheAFIRisexpectedtobereviewedbeforetheendof2026,providinganopportunitytoassesswhethersuchtargetsaresufficienttoaccommodatetheexpectedBETfleetby2030.

ThisstudyestimatestheamountandtypeofcharginginfrastructureneededtomeetBETdemandintheEUby2030.TheanalysismainlyreliesontheICCT’sRoadmap

model(ICCT,n.d.)andHDVCHARGEmodelstoquantifyvehiclestocks,energyneeds,andcharginginfrastructurerequirements,asexplainedinthemethodologysection.

TheresultsarethencomparedtotheAFIRminimumtargets.

1ZETs,asdefinedbyRegulation(EU)2024/1610,includebatteryelectric,hydrogenfuel-cell,andhydrogencombustiontrucksthatemitlessthan3gCO2/tonne-km.

2Regulation(EU)2023/1804definesalternativefuelsas“fuelsorpowersourceswhichserve,atleast

partly,asasubstituteforfossiloilsourcesintheenergyusedfortransportandwhichhavethepotentialtocontributetoitsdecarbonisationandenhancetheenvironmentalperformanceofthetransportsector.”

2ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

POLICYBACKGROUND

TheAFIRwasfirstproposedbytheEuropeanCommissionin2021aspartofthe“Fitfor55”packageofclimate-relatedlegislativemeasures(EuropeanCommission,2021b)andwasultimatelypassedin2023(Regulation(EU)2023/1804,2023).TheregulationsetsbindingtargetsforEUMemberStatestodeployalternativefuelinfrastructure,mainlychargingandhydrogenrefuelingstations,forseveraltransportsectors,includingroadtransport.ConcerningHDVs,theregulationincludesthreetypesoftargetsregarding

infrastructuredeployment:

»Distance-basedtargetsalongtheTrans-EuropeanTransportNetwork(TEN-T);»Targetsaturbannodes,suchasmajorports,rails,androadterminals;and

»Targetsatsafeandsecureparkingareas,referringtoparkingareasaccessibletodriversengagedinthecarriageofgoodsorpassengers.

Table

1summarizestheAFIRtargetsforHDVsbetween2025and2030.Bytheendof2025,EUMemberStatesarerequiredtodeployatleastonepublicrechargingpool

withaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof1,400kWevery120kmineachdirectionoftravelover15%ofthecoreandcomprehensiveTEN-T.Forfutureyears,theminimum

totalpowerincreasesandthedistanceseparatingtworechargingpoolsdecreases,

implyingadenserpubliccharginginfrastructurenetwork.Regardingurbannodes,theAFIRmandatesaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof900kWin2025,whichincreasesupto1,800kWby2030.Asforthesafeandsecureparkingareas,thetargetisto

haveatleasttwo100kWchargingstationsby2027andfourby2030.MoredetailsontheserequirementscanbefoundinBernard(2023).Regulation(EU)2023/1804(2023)statesthatthesetargets,amongotherAFIRcomponents,willbereviewedbyDecember2026andevery5yearsthereafter.

Table1

SummaryoftheAFIRtargetsforHDVsbetween2025and2030

Targettype

Date

Requirement

Distance-based

2025

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof1,400kWevery120kmineachdirectionoftravelover15%ofthecoreandcomprehensiveTEN-T,withatleastone350kWchargingpoint.

2027

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof2,800kWevery120kmineachdirectionoftravelover50%ofthecoreandcomprehensiveTEN-T,withatleastone350kWchargingpoint.

2030

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof3,600kWevery60kmineachdirectionoftraveloverthecoreTEN-T,withatleastone350kWchargingpoint.

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof1,500kWevery100kmineachdirectionoftraveloverthecomprehensiveTEN-T,withatleastone350kWchargingpoint.

Urbannodes

2025

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof900kW,withatleastone150kWchargingpoint.

2030

Onerechargingpoolwithaminimumtotalaggregatedpowerof1,800kW,withatleastone150kWchargingpoint.

Safeand

secureparkingareas

2027

Atleasttwo100kWchargingstations.

2030

Atleastfour100kWchargingstations.

Note:AccordingtotheAFIR,arechargingpointis“afixedormobile,on-gridoroff-gridinterfacethatallows

forthetransferofelectricitytoanelectricvehicle,which,whileitmayhaveoneorseveralconnectorsto

accommodatedifferentconnectortypes,iscapableofrechargingonlyoneelectricvehicleatatime,andexcludesdeviceswithapoweroutputlessthanorequalto3.7kWtheprimarypurposeofwhichisnotrechargingelectricvehicles.”Arechargingpoolrefersto“oneormorerechargingstationsataspecificlocation,”whilearechargingstationreferstoa“physicalinstallationataspecificlocation,consistingofoneormorerechargingpoints.”

3ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

METHODOLOGY

Thissectionpresentsthemethodologyusedtoquantifythecharginginfrastructure

needsforheavy-dutyelectrictrucks.Thismethodologycomprisestwomainparts:

1.Truckfleetsalesandstocks.Totalannualsalesandstocksofelectrictrucksare

calculatedusingtheICCT’sRoadmapmodel(ICCT,n.d.),consideringtwoscenariosforthepaceoftruckelectrification.

2.Truckcharginginfrastructureneeds.CharginginfrastructureneedsareestimatedusingtheICCT’sHDVCHARGEmodel(Schmidtetal.,2024),quantifyingtheenergydemandsassociatedwiththeprojectedtruckfleetconsideringtruckcharging

patternsandinfrastructureutilization.

Thistwo-partmethodologyisillustratedinFigure1andexplainedingreaterdetailbelow.

Figure1

Schematicofthemethodologyemployedtoquantifythecharginginfrastructureneeds

Truckfleetcharginginfrastructureneeds(ICCTHDVCHARGEmodel)

Truckfleetsalesandstocks(ICCTRoadmapmodel)

Energy

consumption

CalculateZEVdailyenergyneeds

Dailymileagedistribution

Market

development

scenario

DieseltrucksCO2emissions

Fleet

composition

CalculateZEVsharespertruckclass

Batterysize

Location

Setchargingpatterns

pertruckclass

(depot,public)

Fleet

growthrate

Fleetsurvivial

curves

Type

CalculateZEV

fleetstocks

(overnight,fast)

Duration

Chargerpower

rate

Calculatetotalpower

demandandcharger

Charger

utilization

numbers

THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

Themagnitude,type,andlocationofcharginginfrastructureforBETsintheEUwill

mainlybedictatedbythetotalnumberofBETs,consideringdifferencesinapplicationthatimpactchargingpatterns.Asshownin

Table

2,thisanalysisconsidersthemain

regulatedVehicleEnergyConsumptioncalculationTOol(VECTO)groupsandexcludes

4ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

busesandcoaches.3Forsimplicity,thedifferenttruckgroupsconsideredinthis

analysisarefurtherclusteredintofourcategories:long-haulheavytrucks,regional

heavytrucks,lightandmediumtrucks,andvocationaltrucks.Together,theVECTO

groupscoveredinthisstudyrepresented86%ofalltrucksalesintheEUin2024.TableA4intheappendixsummarizesthemainattributesofthesegroups.

Table2

VECTOgroupsconsideredandcategoriesusedinthisanalysis

Category

VECTOgroups

Long-haulheavytrucks

4-LH,5-LH,9-LH,and10-LH

Regionalheavytrucks

4-UD,4-RD,5-RD,9-RD,and10-RD

Lightandmediumtrucks

1,2,and3

Vocationaltrucks

11,12,and16

TRUCKFLEETSALESANDSTOCKS

First,electrictrucksharesinagivenyearwereestimatedbasedontwoscenariosofBETuptakeby2030:

1.Lowscenario:ThisscenarioconsiderstheminimumsharesofZETsneededforEuropeantruckmanufacturerstomeetthe45%CO2reductiontargetby2030.

2.Highscenario:ThisscenariomodelsfasterBETuptake,basedontheexpected

sharesofBETsin2030accordingtoconfidentialconsultationsbetweentruck

manufacturersandtheGermangovernmentundertakenin2024(Nationale

OrganisationWasserstoff-undBrennstoffzellentechnologie[NOWGmbH],2024).

Salesandstockswerethencalculatedbasedontheexpectedgrowthinfleetactivity

overtimeandthevehiclesurvivalrate,amongothervariables,usingtheICCTRoadmapmodel(ICCT,n.d.).

Estimatingelectrictrucksalesshares

Lowscenario

UndertheLowscenario,sharesofZETsrequiredformanufacturercomplianceby2030willheavilydependontheCO2emissionsofdieseltrucks—which,inturn,hingeontheextenttowhichdieseltrucktechnologyhasimprovedrelativetothe2019reporting

period.4SharesofZETsrequiredforcompliancebythe2030reportingperiodwillalsodependonanycreditsgeneratedbytruckmanufacturersbetween2026and2029.

Manufacturerscangeneratecreditsiftheymanagetoreducetheiremissionsbelowtheemissiontrajectoryline,astraightlinedrawnbetweenthe2025and2030CO2reductiontargets.Thisanalysisdoesnotconsidercreditstopresentanupper-endestimateofBETsalessharesneededunderthisscenario.

BasedonEuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA)data,dieseltrucks’CO2emissions,

expressedingCO2/tonne-km,slowlydeclinedbetweenthe2019and2022reportingperiods,byanannualrateofroughly1%(EEA,n.d.).Thisreductionwasmainlyduetoimprovementsintruckaerodynamics,energyefficiency,andtirerollingresistance,ashighlightedinapreviousICCTpublication(Musaetal.,2024).

3VECTOisasimulationtoolthatisusedtocertifytheCO2emissionsfromHDVs.

4Forthepurposeofemissionsreporting,EUreportingperiodsrunfromJuly1toJune30ofthefollowingyear;forinstance,the2019reportingyearrunsfromJuly1,2019,toJune30,2020.

5ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURENEEDSFORBATTERYELECTRICTRUCKSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONBY2030

Dieseltechnologyisexpectedtoimprovefurtherbetween2022and2030.Potentialadvancementsincludereductionsinaerodynamicdragthroughbettercabdesigns,theachievementoflowerrollingresistancethroughtheuseofmoreefficienttires,

andengineefficiencyimprovements.AllmajortruckmanufacturersoperatingintheEUannouncednewtruckmodelsbetween2023and2025,withvehicle-levelfuel

savingsrangingbetween5%and15%comparedwith2022modelsdependingon

theirtechnologypackages.AsummaryofthosetechnologypackagesisincludedinapreviousICCTpublication(Mulholland&Ragon,2025).

ToprojectdieseltruckCO2emissionsandtechnologydevelopmentin2030,we

developedregressionmodelsbasedon2022emissionsdatafromEEA(n.d.).TheCO2emissionsoftrucksbelongingtothesameVECTOgroupcanvarywidelydependingonthetechnologypackagesdeployedineachmodel.TheregressionmodelsestablishedrelationsbetweentruckCO2emissionsandprimarytechnologymetrics,namely

aerodynamicairdrag,rollingresistancecoefficient,andengineaverageefficiency

overtheWorldHarmonizedTruckCycle(WHTC),allofwhicharereportedintheEEAdatabase.WedevelopedaseparateregressionmodelforeachVECTOgroup.

ThemodelsallowedustoquantifytheCO2emissionsofeachVECTOgroupifacertainimprovementwererealizedinthesetechnologymetrics.Forthisanalysis,weassumedthat,by2030,alltechnologymetricswouldconvergetothetop20thpercentilefor

everymanufacturer,giventhestateofthetechnologyinthe2022reportingperiod.Thisrepresentsamoderateassumption,implyingthattruckmanufacturerswillsell

moreoftheirbetter-performingtrucksintermsofCO2emissions,butnotnecessarilytheirbest-in-classmodels.MoredetailsontheformulationoftheregressionmodelscanbefoundinanotherICCTpublication(Mulhollandetal.,2025).

Figure

2showsthe2022CO2emissionsandourmodeled2030emissionsforevery

VECTOgroup.Ingeneral,theprojectedCO2reductionin2030relativeto2022rangesfrom2%to12%.Themostimportantgroupsbyshareofsalesandemissions,groups

5-LHand9-LH,areexpectedtorecordaCO2emissionsreductionabove10%,basedonthedieseltechnologythatwasavailableduringthe2022reportingperiod.

6ICCTREPORT|CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE