有色金属行业跟踪周报：市场风偏下降叠加负伽马效应贵金属波动率大幅放大-

1增持（维持）业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨本面无明显改善，下游加工企业已有提前放假计划。在中国炼厂的大量出口背景下，本周因贵金属高杠杆引发踩踏下跌背景下，铜价同步冲高回落，预计短期铜价维持震《美欧日国债各期限收益率均录得上行，贵金属估值进一步提升》《美国经济与通胀数据回升，降息预期下行工业金属价格冲高回落》气持续，叠加欧盟理事会正式批准对俄天然气进口禁令，海外天然气价格暴涨，海外铝价于上半周上行，随着新联储主席带来市场风偏下降，整体有色金属价格回调，铝价跟随下跌，预计短期铝价走势偏弱，后续需观测春节后的中国需求验周五快速打击了市场的风险偏好，叠加贵金属多头杠杆较高，市场在下跌时受到负伽环，我们预计短期整体贵金属将维持震荡筑底态势，黄金在中长期基于各国财政不纪律性的逻辑并未打破，预计低位盘整后仍有上行动2 5 62.1.工业金属：市场风偏下降叠加负伽马效应，有色金属 62.1.1.铜：春节效应致下游需求持续回落致全球铜库存升至阶段高点， 82.1.2.铝：海外天然气价格大涨致铝价于上半周上涨，新联储主席致市场 9 2.1.4.锡：矿端供给端边际转向宽松而冶炼端依旧偏紧2.2.贵金属：市场风偏下降叠加负伽马效应，贵金属 2.3.稀土：磁材大厂开工稳定，镨 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 7 84 8%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-10%石油石化通信煤炭有色金属上证指数环保石油石化通信煤炭有色金属上证指数环保综合数据来源：Wind，图2：申万有色二级行业周涨跌幅（%）图3：有色子行业周涨跌幅（%）5.74%-1.09%18.22%20%18.22%7.74%2.34%-1.73%-0.79%-1.73%-5%-7.49%%-10%-7.49%%数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，5图4：本周涨幅前五公司（%）70%60%50%40%20%0%61.08%31.70%30.30%31.82%31.70%30.30%27.35%湖南黄金白银有色豫光金铅西部黄金怡球资源数据来源：Wind，图5：本周跌幅前五公司（%）-12.0%-14.0%-16.0%-18.0%-14.43%-15.09%-16.06%博威合金旭升集团银邦股份盛新锂能天华新能数据来源：Wind，图6：本周主要标的涨跌幅统计（截至2026年1月30日）603993.SH24.336.90%21.65%21.65%601899.SH40.146.87%16.45%16.45%000933.SZ32.862.91%19.62%19.62%603799.SH72.00-8.46%5.48%5.48%000807.SZ33.643.06%2.44%2.44%002460.SZ赣锋锂业68.60-7.13%9.08%9.08%600547.SH54.557.59%40.92%40.92%000975.SZ34.840.84%43.20%43.20%300618.SZ48.70-4.25%7.72%7.72%002466.SZ54.55-13.14%-1.50%-1.50%300224.SZ17.49-1.58%13.13%13.13%002240.SZ35.55-15.09%3.25%3.25%数据来源：Wind，67表1：工业金属价格周度变化表LME价格43.43%8表2：工业金属库存周度变化表铜铝铅锌镍锡48.74%2.1.1.铜：春节效应致下游需求持续回落致现美铜的反向流出，在本周因贵金属高杠杆引发踩踏下跌背景下，铜价同步冲高回落，图7：LME铜价及库存图8：SHFE铜价及库存9400,000350,000300,000250,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000-14,00012,00010,0008,0004,0002,000-350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00019-0419-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-1019-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-10120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000-数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，/吨，周环比上升335元/干吨；中国粗铜冶炼图9：铜粗炼加工费（美元/干吨）024-0524-0724-0924-1125-0125-0325-0525-0725-0925-1126-01数据来源：Wind，图10：铜精废价差（元/吨）16,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000022-22-1123-0123-0323-0723-0923-1124-0124-0324-0524-0724-0925-0125-0325-0525-0725-0925-1126-01数据来源：Wind，2.1.2.铝：海外天然气价格大涨致铝下跌，预计短期铝价走势偏弱，后续需观测春节后的中国需求验图11：LME铝价及库存2,500,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000-19-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-104,5004,0003,0002,5001,5001,000500-数据来源：Wind，图12：SHFE铝价及库存900,000800,000600,000500,000300,000200,000100,000-19-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-1030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-数据来源：Wind，环比上涨3.09%；沪锌收盘价为25,835元/吨，周环比上涨5.08%。图13：LME锌价及库存图14：SHFE锌价及库存350,000300,000250,000200,000350,000300,000250,000200,000100,00050,000-5,0004,5003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000-180,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00019-0419-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-1019-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-1035,00030,00025,00020,00010,0005,000-数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，图15：LME锡价及库存9,0008,0006,0005,0003,0002,0001,000-19-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-1060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-数据来源：Wind，图16：SHFE锡价及库存20,00018,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,000-19-0420-0421-0422-0422-1023-0423-1024-0425-0425-10500,000450,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,000-数据来源：Wind，使做市商在价格下跌时加速卖出，形成"下跌-抛售-再下跌"的死亡循环，我们预未打破，预计低位盘整后仍有上行动能。表3：贵金属价格周度变化表最新价格周变化周环比月环比年同比4,907.50-75.60-1.52%12.81%72.15%85.09-18.28-17.68%11.87%161.61%1,161.4245.784.10%17.93%73.75%27,941.002976.0011.92%54.03%247.44%数据来源：Wind，图17：各国央行总资产图18：美联储资产负债表组成10,000,0009,000,0008,000,0007,000,0006,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,000010,000,0009,000,0008,000,0007,000,00010,000,0009,000,0008,000,0007,000,0006,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,00005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050006,000,000.005,000,000.004,000,000.003,000,000.002,000,000.001,000,000.00国债（百万美元）国债（百万美元）COMEX黄金（美元/盎司，右轴MBS（百万美元）其他（百万美元）)美国所有联储银行总资产（百万美元）数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，图20：实际利率与Comex黄金图19：图20：实际利率与Comex黄金10,000,0006,000.0010,000,0003.503.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.00-0.50-1.00-1.506,0005,0004,0003,0002,0005,000.008,000,0007,000,0004,000.006,000,0003,000.005,000,0003,000.004,000,0002,000.003,000,0001,0002,000,0001,000.0001,000,00000.000.0025-0119-0120-0121-0119-0120-0121-0122-0123-0124-01美国:所有联储银行总资产（百万美元） Comex黄金（美元/盎司）美债实际收益率（%,右轴)COMEX黄金收盘价（美元/盎司，右轴）数据来源：Wind，数据来源：数据来源：Wind，图22：金银比（金价/银价）图21：美国国债长短期利差（%图22：金银比（金价/银价）2.502.001.502.502.001.501.000.502019-102022-102021-102020-102025-102024-102023-102022-102021-102020-102025-102024-102023-10数据来源：Wind，数据来源：数据来源：Wind，图23：黄金、白银ETF持仓量图24：Comex图23：黄金、白银ETF持仓量5,5005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0002021-10-202025-10-202022-10-202023-10-202024-10-202021-10-202025-10-20SPDR黄金ETF持有量（金衡盎司）SLV白银SPDR黄金ETF持有量（金衡盎司）SLV白银ETF持仓量（盎司，右轴）90706040302038,000,00036,000,00034,000,00032,000,00038,000,00036,000,00034,000,00032,000,00028,000,00026,000,00022,000,00020,000,000600,000,000500,000,000400,000,000350,000,000300,000,000250,000,000数据来源：Wind，数据来源：Wind，表4：稀土价格周度变化表736,0007350011.09%19.19%73.38%795,00010500015.22%23.64%72.83%1,330-50-3.62%-13.07%-18.90%6,100-210-3.33%-3.17%-15.98%数据来源：Wind，图25：氧化镨钕价格（元/吨）800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000氧化镨钕价格（元/吨）数据来源：Wind，图27：氧化铈价格（元/吨）800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000氧化铈价格（元/吨）数据来源：Wind，图29：氧化铽价格（元/千克）18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000氧化铽价格（元/千克）数据来源：Wind，图26：氧化镧价格（元/吨）8,0006,0004,0002,000022-0622-0822-0622-0822-1022-1223-0223-0423-0623-0823-1023-1224-0224-0424-0624-0824-1024-1225-0225-0425-0625-0825-1025-12氧化镧价格（元/吨）数据来源：Wind，图28：氧化镝价格（元/千克）9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000氧化镝价格（元/千克）数据来源：Wind，图30：国内钼精矿报价（元/吨）6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000022-22-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-1124-0124-0324-0524-0924-1125-0125-0325-0525-0725-0925-1126-01国内钼精矿报价（元/吨）数据来源：Wind，图31：国内钨精矿报价（元/吨）图32：长江现货市场电解镁报价（元/吨）600,000500,000400,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000国内钨精矿报价（元/吨）30,00025,00020,00022-22-1023-0223-0423-0623-0824-0224-0424-0624-0824-1025-0225-0425-0625-08023-0223-0423-0623-0824-0224-0424-0624-0825-0225-0425-0625-08数据来源：Wind，数据来源：数据来源：Wind，图34：长江现