摩根士丹利-全球经济主题：多极世界：贸易年鉴-Global Economic Thematic Multipolar World：Trade Almanac-20260306

MorganstanleyRESEARCH

March6,202608:23AMGMT

GlobalEconomicThematic

MultipolarWorld:TradeAlmanac

Asgeopoliticsextendthefocusonglobalsupplychains,werefreshourtradedatabasethatmapssupplychainsacrosssectors,products,andgeographies.Inadditiontomappingglobaltrade,weintroduceamonthlytimeseriesandatariffmonitor.

TheTradeAlmanacprovidesaninteractivetrade

databaseforuserstomaptradeflowsacrosssectors,products,andgeographies.Weoriginallypublisheditalongsideourdeepdiveonglobalsupplychains—

MultipolarWorld:SupplyChainStrain

inFebruary2025.Sincethen,theTradeAlmanachasbeen

referencedregularlyinourperiodicseriesonGlobalTariffsthathavetrackedprogressofglobaltradeoverthepastyear(e.g.,

theIEEPAdeepdive)

.

ThisupdateoftheTradeAlmanacnotonlyupdatestradeflowdatabut

introducesnewmonthlytimeseriesoftradeflows.Inaddition,weincludea

breakdownofeffectivetarifflevels.Thisupdatedoesnotincludeusesamples,butthosecanbereferencedinthe

originaldocument.

Rapidlyshiftinggoodsflowandtarifflevelsrequireconstantmonitoring.Tohelpnavigatesupplychainstrain,wehavebuiltatradedatabasethatmeasuresthe

drivingforcesofsupplychainsalongthethreevectorsoftradediscussedin

Supply

ChainStrain:

Complexity,ConcentrationofProduction,andGeopoliticalDistance.Themonthlydataisimportanttocatchrapidchangesintrendsastariffsadjustandreact.ThetariffinteractivewillhelpuserskeeptrackoftheeffectivetariffratesasmeasuredonreceiptofUSgoods.

Inapplication,thedatabasecanhelpmacroportfoliomanagersbenchmarkexportandimportpatternsacrosssectorstotracegrowth-versus-inflationexposure;andfundamentalportfoliomanagerscanmaprisksaroundinvestment,margin,andFXexposurebytracingsupplychainsfromorigintothefinalconsumeralongwith

value-additivecosts.

Wecollatedmillionsofglobaltradedatapointsintoasuiteofinteractivetoolstoanalyzetradepatternsatbothamacroandafundamentallevel.Thefollowing

interactivemodelsenableuserstomap,overtime,tradeflowsinaggregate,acrossexports/imports,andbyvalueadd.Additionally,weprovidetarifftracking.Note,thedatainthemonthlyinteractiveswillbeupdatedperiodicallyasdataisreleased.

MonthlyTradeFlows

ExploringMonthlyBilateralTradeataProductLevel(Imports)

GlobalFoundation

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc(DIFCBranch)

RajeevSibal

SeniorGlobalEconomist

+9714709-7201

Rajeev.Sibal@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

MayankPhadke,CFA

Economist

+1212761-1531

Mayank.Phadke@

MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited

PriyanMody

Economist

+91226996-1855

Priyan.Mody@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

SethBCarpenter

ChiefGlobalEconomist

+1212761-0370

Seth.Carpenter@

ArunimaSinha

GlobalEconomist

+1212761-4125

Arunima.Sinha@

Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

【价值目录】网整理：

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ExploringMonthlyBilateralTradeataProductLevel(Exports)

USTradeandTariffMonitor

US:TariffLevelsandTariffExposureataEconomy,andProductLevel

US:ExploringMonthlyImportsataProductLevel

US:ExploringMonthlyExportsataProductLevel

GlobalTradeProfiles

Economy-LevelandProduct-LevelImportProfiles

Economy-LevelandProduct-LevelExportProfiles

StructureofGlobalProduct-LevelTradeFlowsOverTime

MarginDriversAcrosstheValueChainbyCountryandIndustry

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MonthlyTradeFlows

Theseinteractivestrackmonthlytradedatareportedbythethreelargesttrading

economies—US,China,andtheEuropeanUnion—coveringexportsandimports

withtheirkeytradingpartners,acrossarangeofgoodscategories.Together,thisdatacoversoverhalfofglobaltrade.

Thesedashboardsserveasahigh-frequencymonitorofglobalgoodsdemandandsupplychaindynamics.TheunderlyingdatafromtheseinteractiveshelpsusuncoverhowAI-

linkedimportsareshapingUStrade

(readmorehere)

,howglobalelectronicssupply

chainsarebeingtransformed

(readmorehere)

,whyChinaislikelytowidenitsleadin

globalexports

(readmorehere)

,trackingreshoringandtransshipment

(readmorehere)

,andseveralkeyquestions.

ExploringMonthlyBilateralTradeataProductLevel

(Imports)

ImportsbytheUS,EuropeanUnion,andChinafromtheirkeytradingpartners

Exhibit1

BreakingDownMonthlyTradeFlows(Imports)

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,USCensusBureau,GeneralAdministrationofCustomsof

China,Eurostat,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearch

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ExploringMonthlyBilateralTradeataProductLevel(Exports)

ExportsbytheUS,EuropeanUnion,andChinatotheirkeytradingpartners

Exhibit2

BreakingDownMonthlyTradeFlows(Exports)

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,USCensusBureau,GeneralAdministrationofCustomsof

China,Eurostat,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearch

Methodology

WeutilizemonthlytradedatareportedbytheUSCensusBureau,theGeneral

AdministrationofCustomsofChina,andEurostat.Thedatasetcapturesimportsfromandexportstothe50largesttradingpartnersfortheUnitedStatesand

China,andthe70largesttradingpartnersfortheEuropeanUnion.USandChinatradeflowsarereportedinbillionsofUSdollars,whileEuropeandataisreportedinbillionsofeuros.ReportedEuropeantradewiththeworldincludesintra-EU27trade.Regionalshareaggregatesreflectonlythecoveredtop50or70trading

partners.

GoodsareclassifiedundertheHarmonizedSystem(HS).Foranalyticalconsistency,weemployacondensedproductclassificationderivedfromtheUN’sHS

framework,enablingcomparablecross-countryproduct-levelanalysis.Weprovide

furtherdetailonthestructureoftradedatainTheStructureofGlobalTradeData.

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Note:DatainthesemonthlyinteractiveswillbeupdatedregularlywiththereleaseofofficialUStradestatistics.Cross-countrycomparisonsaresubjecttoreportinglagsinpartnereconomies.Insomeinstances,thelatestmonthmaynotbe

availableforcertainjurisdictionsduetodelayedpublication.Forexample,atthetimeofwriting,theEUhasnotyetreportedintra-EUtradedataforDecember2025.Asaresult,countryandregionalaggregatesmayreflecttemporarygapsuntilallreportingagenciesreleasetheirdata.

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USTradeandTariffMonitor

UStariffshavebeentheprimarydriverofchangesinglobaltradeflowsthisyear.To

facilitateadetailedassessmentofthesedynamics,weprovideasuiteofinteractivetoolscoveringthreedimensions:economy-leveltariffs,product-leveltariffs,andeconomy-by-productexposures.Thisisaccompaniedbythecorrespondingtradedataaswell.

Theunderlyingdatasetsupportsforward-lookinganalysisofthepotentialpathoftariffs

(readmorehere)

,assessmentofsector-andcountry-levelimplicationsoftariffactions,evaluationoftheeffectsoftariffsonconsumergoods

(readmorehere)

,andcomparisonofproduct-leveltariffratesacrosscountries.Thisstructureenablesacomprehensiveviewofhowtradepolicymeasuresarebeingimplementedandwheretheirimpactismost

concentrated.

AlltariffdataispresentedusingtheNAICSclassificationsystem,allowingfordirectcross-referencingwithUSequitymarketsectorsandindustries.Inparallel,weprovideUStradeflowdatamappedtoNAICScodestosupportanalysisofhowtariffsarereshapingtradepatternsacrossgeographiesandproductcategories,aswellastoassesssensitivityto

shiftsinglobaldemand,supply-chaindisruptions,andfurthertradepolicyadjustments.

US:TariffLevelsandTariffExposureataEconomy,andProductLevel

EffectivetarifflevelsandtariffexposureforUSimports(NAICSClassification)

Exhibit3

TheEvolutionofUSTariffs

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,USCensusBureau,USITC,MorganStanleyResearch

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US:ExploringMonthlyImportsataProductLevel

ImportsbytheUSfromits50largesttradingpartners,basedonNAICSClassification

Exhibit4

US:ExploringMonthlyImportsataProductLevel(NAICSClassification)

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,USCensusBureau,USITC,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanley

Research

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US:ExploringMonthlyExportsataProductLevel

ImportsbytheUSfromits50largesttradingpartners,basedonNAICSClassification.

Exhibit5

US:ExploringMonthlyExportsataProductLevel(NAICSClassification)

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,USCensusBureau,USITC,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanley

Research

Methodology

WeleveragemonthlyUStradedataasreportedbytheUSCensusBureau.Thedatasetcoversimportsfrom,andexportsto,the50largestUStradingpartners,withtradeflowsreportedinbillionsofUSdollars.Aggregatesforsharesby

geographicregionreflectonlythesetop50tradingpartners.

TariffmetricsarederivedfromUSCensusdataonCalculatedDuties.Weestimatetheshareoftradeexposedtotariffsasthedutiablevaluedividedbytotaltrade

(CustomsValue).TheaveragetariffondutiablegoodsiscalculatedasCalculatedDutydividedbyDutiableValue.Toestimatetheeffectivetariffrateacrossall

trade,includingduty-freeflows,wedivideCalculatedDutybytotaltrade(CustomsValue).

TradeflowsarepresentedusingtheNAICSclassificationsystem,enabling

consistentproduct-andindustry-levelanalysisandfacilitatingcross-referencingwithUSequitymarketsectors.Thisstructuresupportsdetailedassessmentofhowtariffsareshapingtradepatternsacrossindustriesandpartnercountries,as

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wellassensitivitytoshiftsinglobaldemand,supply-chainadjustments,and

changesintradepolicy.Weprovidefurtherdetailonthestructureoftariff-relateddataandtradedatainTheStructureofGlobalTradeData.

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GlobalTradeProfiles

Theseinteractivesprovidesadetailedsnapshotofthetradeprofileofanygivencountryacrosstime.Thedatacanbeportrayedmultipleways,eitherbycountry/sectorovertimeorgrowthtrend.Thelevelandtrendcanbothbeconsequentialinmappinghowsupplychainsarereacting.

Thedataunderlyingtheseinteractivesiscriticalforusinunderstandingthestructureofglobaltrade,andallowsustoexaminepotentialfor,andimpedimentstosupplychainrestructuring,asdiscussedin

MultipolarWorld:SupplyChainStrain.

DataonimportscanallowMacroportfoliomanagerstoidentifywheregrowthorinflationrisktodomesticdemandmightmanifestbasedontradebarriersand/orshiftingsupply

chains.Fundamentalportfoliomanagerscanseedependenceofimportsacrosscountriesandsectorsaswellaspotentialgainsfromnearshoring.

Dataonexportscanassistmacroportfoliomanagerscanusethedatatoseehowany

individualsectoraffectsthebroadereconomy—whetheranexportercanabsorb

disruptioninasinglesectororwhetherthereismarketconcentrationrisk.The

disaggregationcanhelpdifferentiate"beta"versus"alpha"opportunities.Fundamental

portfoliomanagerscantracetheevolutionofexportrelationshipsbetweentwocountriestobenchmarkcomparisonseitherbycountryorovertimeiftheleveloftradeshifts.

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Economy-LevelandProduct-LevelImportProfiles

Explorethegeographicalandproduct-levelexportstructureofarangeofeconomies

Exhibit6

ImporterTradeProfiles

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,UNComtrade,MorganStanleyResearchNote:Alldatafrom

theperspectiveofthe"ReporterCountry"selectedfromthedropdown

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Economy-LevelandProduct-LevelExportProfiles

Explorethegeographicalandproduct-levelimportstructureofarangeofeconomies

Exhibit7

ExporterTradeProfiles

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,UNComtrade,MorganStanleyResearchNote:Alldatafrom

theperspectiveofthe"ReporterCountry"selectedfromthedropdown.

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StructureofGlobalProduct-LevelTradeFlowsOverTime

Structureofglobaltradeflowsfromexporters(left)toimporters(right)overtime,ataproductlevel

Exhibit8

TradeFlowsOverTime

Source:AlphaWiseWebIntelligence,UNComtrade,MorganStanleyResearch

Note:Datafrom

theperspectiveofExporters(ontheleft).Datacoversexportsfrom77exporterscoveredby

MorganStanleyEconomicsandStrategyResearchtoalltradepartners.Somecountriesincluding

Korea,VietNamandIndonesiahadnotreportedexportsdatafor2023asofcollectingthisdata.

Pleasereferto

The

HarmonizedSystemfordetailsaboutdataavailability

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MarginDriversAcrosstheValueChainbyCountryandIndustry

Whilethepreviousillustrationsfocusonthetradeoffinishedgoods,thisinteractive

attemptstotracethevalueaddcontributionsacrossthesupplychainbycountryand/orindustry.Takingstandardizednationalaccountsdata,weseehowattributionismade

acrosstheP&Lfromatop-downperspective.Forasectororfundamentalanalyst,this

datacantracetheinputcostsacrossthesupplychaintodeterminewhereriskslieonthesupplychaincontinuum.Forexample,tariffsmayraisethecostofgoods,butFXmovescanoffsetthatincreasebyloweringrelativelaborcosts.Thesedifferencesarenotalwaysobvious,sothedatacanbeusedtodecipherthebalanceofcostshiftsinasupplychainshockscenario.

Thebluesectionofthisexhibitenablesagranularanalysisoftheinputseachindustry

consumes(IndustryView),wherethoseinputsoriginate(CountryView)orboth(CountryandIndustryView).Ingreen,weexaminethevalueadditionaspectofeachindustry:GrossOperatingSurplus(profits),EmployeeCompensation,andTaxeslessSubsidies.Inyellow,weexaminetheconsumersofeachindustry'soutputs:again,eitheratacountrylevel,

industrylevel,orboth.Thisinteractiveallowseasyvisualizationofsector-wiseinterdependencesandgeographicalexposures.

Thechartswillhelpshowproductionchainsandhowsupplychainsfeedintovalueadd.

Macroportfoliomanagerscanbetterunderstandwherelabor,investmentorconsumptionrisksmayarisefromshiftingtrendsinthesupplychain.Fundamentalportfoliomanagerscanbetterunderstandtheextenttowhichtariffsmightflowthroughtoproductcosts,

particularlygiventhesectorbreakdownofintermediategoods.Thiscanbeanalyzed

relativetothechangeinlaborcostsfromforeignexchangepatternsthataccompanyshiftsinsupplychains(ortariffbarriers).

Asofpublishingthisnote,updateddataonsupplychainswereunavailable,andthe

interactivebelowusesdatafor2022.Givenunderlyingvaluechainsareslowtochange,wecontinuetoseethisdataisbeingdirectionallyaccurate.

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TracingValueAdditionandMarginDriversAcrossGlobalSupplyChains

Exhibit9

Input/OutputandValueAddAcrosstheSupplyChain

Source:AlphaWise,EurostatFIGAROTables,MorganStaneyResearch.Note:Allfiguresarebased

on2022SupplyChains

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TheStructureofGlobalTradeData

TheHarmonizedSystem

In2023,US$24trillionworthofglobalgoodstradedacross200+categorizedtradecountries/groups.TheWorldCustomsOrganization's"HarmonizedSystem"isthe

frameworkmostcommonlyusedtocreateastandardizedeconomiclanguagethat

organizesthecolossalamountofdatathatdescribestradeflows.TheHarmonized

Systemisagloballyacceptedproductnomenclaturethatassignsproductcodesto

individualgoods,whichallowscustomsauthoritiesgloballytodeterminethetaxes,tariffsanddutiesforexportingorimportinganygood.Itisalsousedtogatherglobally

comparabletradestatistics.

ForfundamentalequityanalystsmorefamiliarwiththeGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(GICS),NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),orthelegacyStandardIndustrialClassificationcodes(SIC),HScodesaresimilarinconceptandcanbemapped.Theyoperateonasimilarprinciple,withasequenceofdigitsofferingmore

granularityonaproduct'sspecifications.

HarmonizedSystemoftariffNomenclature(maintainedbytheWorldCustomsOrganization)

TheHSsystemuses6-digitcodes.Eachcodeisstructuredinthesameway:

•Chapter—thefirst2numbersrepresenttheHS2code,e.g.,08for"Ediblefruitandnuts,peelofcitrusfruitormelons."

•Heading—addingthenexttwonumbers(08.04)givestheHS4codefor"Dates,figs,pineapples,avocados,guavas,mangoesandmangosteens,freshordried."

•Sub-heading—addingthefinal2numbers(08.04.50)givestheHS6codefor"Guavas,mangoesandmangosteens.

•The6-digitcodeisthedepthtowhichglobaltradeisstandardized,currently

representingaround5,600distinctgoods.Furthertwo-digitincrementscantakethecodeto10oreven12digits.Mosttariffsaredefinedata6-digitlevel.IntheUS,tariffs,dutiesandnon-tariffmeasuresareappliedatan8-digitlevel.

Exhibit10:ExampleofHowGoodsTradeIsStructured

Classification

Numberof

Categories

Codes

Description

Notes

BroadClassification

11

AnimalsandFoodProducts

Sections

21

SectionII

VegetableProducts

StandardizedbyWCO

Chapters-HS2Classification

97

08

阝Ediblefruitandnuts;peelofcitrusfruitormelons.

Heading-HS4Classification

1229

08.04

Dates,figs,pineapples,avocados,guavas,mangoesandmangosteens,freshordried:阝

Subheading-HS6Classification

5613

08.04.50

Guavas,mangoesandmangosteens:

Article

FurtherDetails

>7500,Notstandardized

0804.50.40

0805

IfenteredduringtheperiodfromSeptember1,inanyyear,tothefollowingMay31,inclusive

CertifiedOrganicMangoes

Country-SpecificCodes

Source:WCO,USInternationalTradeCommission,MorganStanleyResearch

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Dataongoodsexportsandimportsiscollectedbynationalstatisticalagencies.ThisdataisthenaggregatedbytheUnitedNationsComtradedatabaseforover200

countries,coveringover99%ofworldmerchandisetrade.ThisdatabasecoversbilateraltradeattheHS-2,HS-4andHS-6productlevels.Weworkwithasubsetofthisdata

acrossproductlevels,focusingonthetradeofaround80economiesunderMorgan

StanleyEconomicsandStrategycoverage(thoughaccountingforallreportedworldwideimports).

Ourinteractivemodelsaredesignedtoprovideclientswithabird'seyeviewofglobaltradebyallowingforexplorationoftradeflowsandrelationshipsatamacrolevel;thedataisclosesttotheHS2codelevelbutsimplifiedfurther.Foreasyvisualizationandunderstandingoftraderelationships,wedefine11BroadClassificationsofgoodsthatareanalogoustotheWCO's21Sections,butfurtherabridgedforeasierconsumptionofdata.ThecategoriesareAnimalsandFoodProducts;Minerals;Fuels;Chemicals;Plastic,Wood,Paper,Stone,etc.;TextileandApparel;Metals;MachineryandMechanicalAppliances;

ElectricalMachineryandEquipment;TransportationEquipment;andMiscellaneousGoods.

Tomakeinsightsmoreaccessiblethroughourdatabase–whichcontainscloseto10

milliondatapoints—wecreatedthreeviewswithinourinteractivethatallowusersto

viewvaluechainsforeachindustryatacountry,industry,andmoregranularcountry-by-industrylevel.WealsohavemicroleveldataattheHS-2,HS-4orHS-6levels,whichdrovemuchoftheanalysisinthe

SupplyChainStrain

note.

Theprimarydriverofthedatainthefirstthreeinteractives,asindicatedabove,isUN

Comtradedata.Thistiestothereportedtradestatisticsfromnationalstatisticaloffices(seethegreyboxbelowforfurthergranularity).Additionally,weprovideafourth

interactivethatscopesvalueaddproduction.Globalizedsupplychainsmeanthattracingvalueaddproductionisnotstraightforward.Nationalstatisticalagencies,internationalorganizationslikeOECD,andacademicprojectsallstudywherevalueisadded—bothinternationallyanddomestically.WeusedatafromEurostat'sFIGAROInter-Country

Input-Output(ICIO)database,whichexaminesthevalueaddfor64industriesacross45countries.Ultimatelythiscrosssectionallowsforanalysisofmorethan2,500industrynodestoseetheinputsagivenindustryusesfromotherindustrynodes—aproxyforvalueaddacrosssupplychains.

NAICSClassification

WhileNAICSiswidelyrecognizedasanindustryclassificationsystem,italsoclassifiesgoodsthroughitsproduct-levelstructure.UnderNAICS-basedproductcoding(oftenreferredtoasNAICSproductclassesortheNorthAmericanProductClassification

System,NAPCS),goodsareorganizedaccordingtotheindustryofproduction.

NAICSusesasix-digithierarchicalstructure:

•2-digit:Sector(e.g.,31–33Manufacturing)

•3-digit:Subsector-wepresentallNAICS-basedinteractivesatthislevel.

•4-digit:IndustryGroup

•5-digit:NAICSIndustry

•6-digit:NationalIndustry

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Attheproductlevel,goodsaredefinedwithinthecontextoftheproducingindustry.Forexample,motorvehiclepartsareclassifiedwithinthemotorvehiclemanufacturing

industrygrouping,evenifsimilarcomponentsmaybetradedundermultipleHSheadingsdependingonmaterialcompositionoruse.

ThekeydistinctionrelativetoHSismethodological:

•HSclassifiesgoodsbywhattheyare(materialcompositionandphysicalattributes).

•NAICSproductclassificationgroupsgoodsbywhoproducesthem(productionprocessandindustryoforigin).

Forequityandmacroanalysts,mappingHScodestoNAICSindustriesenablestranslationofproduct-leveltradeexposureintoindustry-levelrevenue,margin,andvalue-added

sensitivities.

StructureofTariff-RelatedData

TariffExposureMetrics

Acrossthetablesinthisinteractive,tariffexposureiscalculatedusingvalue-basedUS

importdata.First,theshareofgoodsexposedtotariffsisestimatedasthedutiablevalueofimportsdividedbytotaltrade(measuredusingCustomsvalue)withagivencountry.Thisindicatestheproportionofbilateralimportsthataresubjecttoduty.Second,the

averagetariffondutiablegoodsiscalculatedascalculateddutydividedbydutiablevalue.Thisreflectstheaveragestatutorytariffrateappliedonlytogoodsthataresubjectto

duty.Becausethedenominatorexcludesduty-freetrade,thismeasuredoesnotaccountfortheshareofimportsenteringwithouttariffs.Toaddressthislimitation,wealso

estimatetheeffectivetariffrateontotaltradebydividingcalculateddutybytotaltrade(Customsvalue).Thiscapturestheaggregatetariffburdenacrossthefullimportbasket,incorporatingbothdutiableandduty-freeflows.

VariabledefinitionsfollowtheUSCensusBureau’sInternationalTradeDefinitions.

CustomsValue:CustomsvaluerepresentsthevalueofimportsasappraisedbyUS

CustomsandBorderProtectionundertheTariffActof1930,asamended.ItisgenerallydefinedasthepriceactuallypaidorpayableformerchandisesoldforexporttotheUnitedStates,excludingUSimportduties,freight,insuranceandotherinternational

transportation-relatedcharges.Theterm“priceactuallypaidorpayable”referstothe

totaldirectorindirectpaymentmadebythebuyerto,orforthebenefitof,theseller.Intransactionsbetweenrelatedparties,therelationshipmustnotinfluencethedeclared

value.Ifassistance(“assists”)isprovidedtoaforeignmanufacturerforuseinproducinggoodsexportedtotheUnitedStates,thevalueofthatassistancemustbeincludedintheCustomsvalue.Assistsmaybetangibleorintangibleandincludemachinery,tools,dies,molds,blueprints,intellectualproperty,researchanddevelopment,andengineeringorconsultingservices.Whereassistsareseparatelyidentified,theyareremoveddu