nShift-新零售现实：人工智能时代2026年零售配送趋势-The new RETAIL REALITY Trust,proof,and the delivery experience in the AI era页

Report

Thenew

RETAILREALITY

Trust,proof,andthedeliveryexperienceintheAIera

CONTENTS

Tableofcontents2

SEC

TION12026RetailTrends:Theevolutionofretailandcustomerdemand

4

Zero-cl

ickshopping:AIagentsandagenticpayments

Retailm

edianetworksandtheexpansionintopost-purchase

Phygita

landomnichannel:E-commerceandin-storeblur

Shoppi

ngwithoutborders:Cross-borderconvenienceandchoice

Twofo

undationsbehindthenewretailreality

SEC

TION2Capabilities:Thetruthlayer

21

Automation

thatearnstrust

Service

thatscaleswithoutlosingthehumanmoment

Measu

rement,truth,andfeedbackloops

SEC

TION3Constraints:What’sshapingtheplayingfield

31

Regula

tion,AIguardrails,consumerrights

Geopol

itics,customsfriction,routevolatility

SEC

TION4Blueprint:Turninginsightsintoaction

39

Readin

esschecklist

Capabi

litymap

Signals

towatchin2026

Mapw

heretrustleaks

About

nShift

47

Refer

ences

48

Intro3

INTRO

Everyyearbringsafreshsetofretailtechnologytrends.2026isdifferentforonesimplereason:themostimportantforceshowingupeverywhereisacustomerwhohasstoppedbeingpatient.

What’schangingisn’tjustthespeedofretail;it’stheshapeofcustomerdemand.Customerswantcontrol,visibility,andfewercompromisesateverystepofthejourney.Deliverychoicesthatfitreallife.Updatesthatfeelproactive,notapologetic.Areturnsjourneythatdoesn’tpunishthemforbuyingonline.Whenthoseexpectationsaren’tmet,theimpactlandsonyourbrand.

Behindthatexperiencesitsacarrierlandscapethatisgettingmoredynamic,withmoreout-of-homenetworks,morehandovers,andmoredeliverychoicesthatneedtoworkconsistentlyacrosspartners.

AtnShift,weoperateinthemomentswherethatimpactiscreated:betweencheckoutanddoorstep,between

servicepromiseandoperationalreality,betweenretailerambitionandthelimitsoftoday’slogisticslandscape.It’savantagepointthatmakespatternshardtoignore.

Thisreportstartswiththenewretailreality,theshiftsinbehavioranddemandthatareredefiningwhat“good”

lookslike.Thenitgoesdeeperintowhatmattersnext:thecapabilitiesrequiredtodeliveratscale,theconstraintsshaping2026,andtheprioritiesthatturnbetterdeliveryintocompetitiveadvantage.

SECTIONONE

2026Retailtrends

2026RETAIL

TRENDS:

Theevolutionofretailandcustomerdemand

In2026,thedefinitionofconvenienceis

shiftingfrom“easytobrowse”to“delegatedandautomated”.Fortwodecades,online

retailreliedoncustomersactivelysearching,filtering,andclicking.Now,moreofthe

journeyisbeingmediatedbyassistants,

marketplaces,andhybridfulfilmentmodels.

Thefollowingmarketshiftsdescribehow

customerdemandischangingandwhy

delivery,tracking,andreturnsarebecomingpartofhowcommerceiswonorlost.

2026Retailtrends5

Zero-clickshopping:AIagentsand

agenticpayments

Shoppingisstartingtobedelegated.Andwhenamachineisthefirstreader,the

offerhastobecomparable.Totalcost,deliverypromise,andreturnstermsneedtobeclearenoughtobecheckedandexecutedautomatically,notjustexplained.

Wherewearenow

AIshoppingagentsaremovingfromnoveltytoinfrastructure.Theshiftisalreadyvisibleindiscoverybehavior.InCapgemini’s2025consumerresearch1,58%of

consumerssaidtheyhavereplacedtraditionalsearchengineswithgenerativeAItoolsforrecommendations,whichmeansdiscoveryisincreasinglyhappening

insideassistants.

Trustremainsaconstraintonfullautomation.Forrester’s2025UKresearch2pointstoagapbetweenexpectationandreadiness.35%ofUKonlineadultsexpect

brandstomarketdirectlytoAIagentsinthefuture,while24%currentlytrustAIagentstomakeroutinepurchasesontheirbehalf.

Anearlyadoptersegmentisalreadyactive.Retailer-commissionedresearch

indicatesthat28%ofUKadultsarecomfortableallowinganAIassistanttoauto-buyapproveditems.

2026Retailtrends6

Wherewe’reheading

McKinsey’s2024viewofagenticcommerce3describesthreeemergingpaths:

•Inone,anagentnavigatestoabrandwebsiteinplaceofashopper.

•Inanother,agentstransactdirectlywithotheragents.

•Inathird,agentsactthroughbrokeragemodelsthatconnectagentsandbrandsites.

Thecommonoutcomeisthatpurchasingbecomesmoreautomated,whiletheinformationrequiredtomakeapurchasebecomesmorestructured.

Forretailers,thisshifttendstoshowupinthreeinterconnectedways:

1Customerexperiencesarereimaginedaround“delegated”interactions.

2

Marketingbecomeslessaboutpersuadingahumanandmoreaboutbeingselectedbyamachine.

3

Paymentsandfraudcontrolsevolvetosupportnon-humanpurchasersactingonbehalfofcustomers.

2026Retailtrends7

Thepaymentslayerisalreadymoving.PayPalhasbeenbuildingagentic

commerceservicesdesignedtomakeinventoryandfulfilmenteasierforAIagentstointerpretandacton4.Majorpaymentnetworksarealsodefiningprotocolsforagent-drivenpayments,includingVisa’sTrustedAgent

Protocol5,Mastercard’sAgentPayAcceptanceFramework6,andGoogle’sAgentPaymentsProtocol7.

Someforecastspositionthisasamaterialchannelshiftovertime.PayPal’s

stated“northstar”isthatupto25%ofecommercespendcouldbeagent-

drivenby20308.Whetherornotthatexactfigureholds,thedirectionisclear:

paymentandidentityrailsarebeingadaptedfordelegatedpurchasing.

Whyitmatters

Upto25%ofecommercespend

couldbeagent-drivenby2030.

Thecompetitivebattlegroundshiftstowardsoperationallegibility.Ifyoursystemscannotreliablyexpresswhatanagentneedstodecide,includingdeliveryoptions,deliverydates,andreturnsterms,youbecomeeasiertoexcludefromconsiderationwithoutahumaneverseeingyourbrandpage.

2026Retailtrends8

Retailmedianetworksandtheexpansionintopost-purchase

Retailmediahasmovedfromasideprojecttoacorebusinessmodel.Retailersaremonetizingtwoassetsthatbrandscompetefor:first-partypurchasedataandthedigitalsurfaceswherebuyingdecisionshappen.

Thenextgrowthwavepushesbeyondsearchandcategorypagesintopost-

purchaseterritory,includingorderconfirmation,tracking,andreturns,where

attentionishighandtrustisfragile.Thisshiftmattersbecauseitcreatesahardtrade-off:growmediarevenue,withoutweakeningdeliverypromisesandpost-purchaseclarity.

Wherewearenow

Retailmediahasgraduatedfrom“extrarevenue”toaseriouslineiteminEuropean

advertisingbudgets.Itisalsogrowingfasterthanthewideradmarket.IABEurope’soutlookputsthemarketatroughly€31bnby20289.TheUKoffersaclearsignalofthetrajectory.IABUKforecasts10retailmediaspendtosurpass£1bnin2025excluding

Amazon,andbreak£7bnby2028,includingAmazon.

2026Retailtrends9

AdvertisersareleaninginfortworeasonsconfirmedinIABEurope’s

research:retailersholdstrongfirst-partyshoppingdata,andretailmediareachespeopleatthemomenttheyaredecidingwhattobuy.

Majorplayersarealreadyexecutingonthestandardplaybook.Carrefourisexpandingthroughpartnershipsspanningin-storeanddigitalinventory11.

TescocontinuestobuildoutitsMediaandInsightPlatform.Zalando

positionsZMSasitsdedicatedunit.Thisisnotlimitedtothelargestmarkets:NordicleaderslikeICAinSwedenandKeskoinFinlandarebuildingsimilarpropositionsaroundfirst-partydataandownedchannels.

Theboundaryofwhatcountsasaretailmediasurfaceisexpanding.Someretailersandmarketplacesarestartingtotreatpost-purchasemomentsas

commercialinventory,becausecustomersactivelypayattentionthere.JustEatTakeaway’spartnershipwithRokt12explicitlytreatstheorderconfirmationmomentasanadsurface.

UKretailmediaspendcould

pass£7bnby2028.

2026Retailtrends10

Whyitmatters

Thisisfundamentallyamarginstory.WesternEuropeanretailersoperate

onverythinoperatingmargins.McKinsey’sStateofGroceryRetailEurope

2025reportsthataverageEBITforEuropeangrocershasdroppedto2.8%13.Thatmeansaretailerkeepsabout€2.80ofoperatingprofitforevery€100insales.Inthatcontext,high-marginmediarevenuebecomesaseriousprofitpool,andafundingmechanismforthebusiness.

Butthefinancialimperativecollideswithcustomerexperience.Checkout,confirmation,tracking,andreturnsexisttoanswerasingleanxiousquestion:“Whatishappeningwithmyorder?”Baymard’sresearchhighlightshow

centralordertrackingistoself-service14.Ifthesepagesbecomeclutteredwithadsorconfusingoffers,thecostisnotlimitedtoconversion.Italso

increasessupportcontactsandreducesthelikelihoodofrepeatpurchase.

Retailersneedmediarevenue,andtheycannotaffordtoweakenthepost-purchasetrustthatdrivesretention.

Wherewe’reheading

Thenextphaseisorchestrationratherthansimplyaddingadplacements.

WhileIABEurope’sresearchshowsthaton-siteplacementsdominatebudgetstoday,theemphasisisshiftingtowardconnectingon-site,off-

site,andin-storetouchpointsintoasingleplan.ICA’sHeadofRetailMedia

describesthefutureasorchestration,movingawayfromisolatedplacementstowardjoined-upplanningacrossdigitalandphysicalretail.

Thisexpansionincreasinglyreachesintopost-purchase,because

confirmationandtrackingarehigh-attentiontouchpoints.Thechallengeisthatthesemomentsalsocarrythehighesttrustburden.Asretailmediaspreadsacrossmoresurfaces,measurementbecomesagatingfactor.IABEuropeidentifiesinconsistentmeasurementasamajorblockerforbuyers.

Thewinnersinthisnextphasewillbetheonesthatcanofferstandardized,comparablemetricsacrosschannels,includingpost-purchaseinventory.

2026Retailtrends11

Phygitaland

omnichannel:

E-commerceandin-storeblur

Omnichannelhasbecomethedefaultretailoperatingmodel.Shoppersmove

fluidlybetweenmobilejourneys,stores,pickuppoints,andlockers.Theyexpect

inventory,deliveryoptions,andreturnstostayconsistentacrosseverytouchpoint.Thisshiftraisesthebaroncoordination.Storesincreasinglyactasfulfilment

nodes.Inventoryaccuracymattersmore.Promise-makingatcheckout,tracking,andreturnsmustreflectwhatcanbeexecuted.

Omnichannelexposesweaklinksquickly:afailedpickuphandoverorunclearreturnstatusisenoughtoerodetrustanddriveavoidablesupportcontacts.

2026Retailtrends12

Wherewearenow

Customerbehavioralreadyspanschannels.Peoplebrowseonline,collectin-store,andreturnout-of-home.Theexperienceisjudgedinthemomentsthatconfirmor

breakconfidence,includingwhetheroptionsremainavailable,whetherdeliverypromisesareclear,andwhetherreturnsandrefundsstayvisible.

Hybridfulfilmentismainstream,andout-of-homedeliveryisagrowingpreference.AcrossEurope,35%ofshoppersregularlyhaveitemsdeliveredtoout-of-home

locationssuchasparcelshopsorlockers,comparedwith25%globally.IntheUK,DHL’s2025researchshowsthatnearly20%ofshoppersnowpreferlockersor

parcelshops15.IntheNordics,theexpectationisevenhigher.PostNordreportsthat77%ofconsumerssaytheabilitytochooseapickuplocationisthemostimportantfactorwhendecidingwheretoshop16.

Butout-of-homeonlyfeelsseamlesswhencarrierscaninteroperateacrosslockers,parcelshops,andpickuppoints,withconsistenthandovereventsandproofthat

flowsthroughtrackingandreturns.

35%ofEuropean

shoppersregularlyuse

lockersorparcelshops.

2026Retailtrends13

Returnsareshiftingout-of-homeevenfasterthandeliveries.DHL’sdatashows

that79%ofshoppersinEuropeprefertoreturnunwanteditemsviaaparcellockerorshop.Thismattersbecausereturnssitattheintersectionofcustomerexperienceandcost-to-serve.Whenreturnroutesareunclearorhardtotrack,“whereismy

refund”contactsriseandmarginleakagefollows.

Wherewe’reheading

In2026,omnichannelmaturitybecomesanoperationaldefault.Stores,carriers,lockers,andpickuppointsmustbehavelikeoneconnectedsystem.

Storesaretakingonfulfilmentresponsibilitiesatgreaterscale.Asretailersexpandclick-and-collect,ship-from-store,andin-storereturns,storesneedprocess,space,andtoolingtopick,pack,andhandoverparcelsreliably.Deloittedescribesthisas

UnifiedCommerce17,wherephysicallocationsareusedasdistributionnodestoenablefasterservice.

Pickupanddrop-offnetworkswillkeepgainingimportance.EcommerceEurope18notesthatlockerandpickuppointdeliveryhasbecomeamajordifferentiator.

PostNord’sdatareinforcesthatdeliveryoptionsinfluencecustomerchoice,andthatpickup-locationpreferenceisastrongdriverinNordicmarkets19.

Promiseaccuracybecomestheprimaryexperiencemetric.Whenshoppersmix

channels,theexperienceisonlyasstrongasthedataunderneathit.Checkoutmustshowwhatisactuallypossible.Trackingneedstomatchreality.Returnsandrefundsneedtostaytransparentacrosshandovers.Deloittepointsoutthatconsumers

increasinglyexpectsimilarservicelevelsacrosschannelsandsellers.

2026Retailtrends14

Whyitmatters

Phygitalperformanceismeasuredbyconsistency.Offeringmanyoptionshelps

onlywhentheoptionsworktogetherandremainreliableacrosschannels.When

storesplayaroleinfulfilment,retailersbenefitfromajoined-upoperatingmodelthatreducesduplicatedprocesses,strandedstock,andconflictingpromises.

Choiceincreasinglyextendsbeyondhomedelivery.InNordicmarkets,theabilitytochooseapickuplocationdirectlyinfluenceswherecustomersshop.Returnsarealsowheremarginsleak.Aschannel-mixingbecomesnormal,itbecomesmoreimportanttoguidereturnsintoroutesthatbalancecost,speed,andtraceability.

Promiseaccuracyisthetrustlever.Customersexpectpickupreadinesstobetrue,deliverydatestobecredible,andreturnhandoverstoremainvisible.Baymard’s

research20findsthattrackingopenordersisthemostimportantself-servicefeature.Whenvisibilityfails,confidencedropsquickly.

2026Retailtrends15

Shoppingwithoutborders:

Cross-borderconvenienceandchoice

Cross-borderecommerceinEuropehasbecomeamainstreamsourceof

incrementaldemand.Customersbuyabroadforpriceandassortment,then

judgetheexperiencethroughanarrowerlens:totalcostclarity,familiarpaymentprotections,deliveryoptionsthatmatchlocalnorms,andreturnstheycantrust.

Thisshiftmattersbecauseexecutiondefinesoutcomes.Clearpromisesandvisiblereturnsturninternationalinterestintorepeatpurchases.Poorpromiseclarityand

weakvisibilitydriveabandonmentandsupportload.Regulatorytighteningaroundcustomsanddataincreasestheoperationalcostofgettingcross-borderwrong.

2026Retailtrends16

IntheNordics,cross-borderpurchasingisfrequent.PostNordreportsthat73%of

Nordicconsumershaveboughtonlinefromabroadin2024,with48%doingso

monthly22.IntheUK,Signifydframescross-bordersales,up4%yearoveryear,asagrowthlevertiedtolocalizedpaymentsandefficientlogistics23.

Customermotivationisstable.Betterchoiceandbetterpricesareconsistent

drivers.Thevariablethatmovesconversionisrisktolerance.DHL’s2025consumerresearch24positionsfreedeliveryasaprimarydriver,andhighlightstrustasthe

limitingfactor.Whendeliverypromisesarevague,returnsprocessesareunclear,orfeesappearlate,shoppershesitateandabandon.

Wherewearenow

Cross-bordershoppingisfirmlyestablishedinEuropeanecommercebehavior.Cross-BorderCommerceEuropeestimatestheEuropeanmarketat€358.7bn

in2024and2025,andnotesthataround70%ofturnoverisgeneratedby

onlinemarketplaces21.Thisshapestheeconomicsofcross-borderdemand.

Manycustomerjourneysstartonmarketplaces,andbrandscompeteinaglobalcomparisonsetbydefault.

73%ofNordicconsumers

boughtonlinefromabroad

lastyear.

2026Retailtrends17

Wherewe’reheading

Cross-bordergrowthcontinuesthrough2026,andtheoperationalbarrisesinparallel.Retailersthatconvertcross-borderdemandtreatlocalizationasacoreexperiencerequirement,notatranslationtask.

Checkoutclaritybecomesaconversiongate.Shoppersconvertwhentheofferfeelslocal,includingpricesinlocalcurrency,familiarpaymentprotection,clearcustoms

charges,anddeliveryproviderstheyrecognize.DHL’sresearch25reinforcesthat

clarityontotalcostandreturnsisadecidingfactor,sinceuncertaintyaroundreturnsreducesconversionquickly.

Regulatorycompliancebecomesmoredatadependent.Customsreformand

stricterscrutinyoflow-valueparcelsarepushingretailerstowardmoreaccurateproductdataanddeclarations.Thepracticalimplicationisthatinaccurateproductcodesandvaguedeclarationscreatehigherfrictionandcanblockshipments.

Convenienceincreasinglyroutesthroughpickupanddrop-offnetworks.As

marketplacesdrivemorecross-bordervolume,customersexpectdeliveryand

returnstofittheirroutines.Lockersandparcelshopsreducemisseddeliveriesandsimplifythereturnleg.Clearproofofhandoverstrengthensconfidencewhenthejourneyspansmultiplepartiesandborders.

Whyitmatters

Cross-bordergrowthaddsdemand,anditalsoamplifiespromiserisk.Customersmakefewerallowanceswhenbuyingabroad.Theywantcertaintyontotalcost,

deliverytimeline,andreturnlocation.Confidencedrivesconversionandrepeatpurchase.Uncertaintydriveshesitation,abandonment,andhighercontactrates.

Cross-borderalsocompressesmarginthroughadditionalcostandcomplexity,

includingcarrierhandovers,customsadministration,andhigherreturnrisk.Treatingcross-borderasanoperatingdisciplineprotectsmargin.Thatdisciplinestartsearly

withclearpromisesatcheckout,thencontinuesthroughconsistenttrackingand

visiblereturnsandrefundsacrossmarkets.Italsomultipliescarrierhandovers,

whichraisesthecostofinconsistencyinstatusevents,exceptionreasons,andproofofpickupandreturndrop-off.

Themostsensitivepointsinthecross-borderjourneyarecheckout,tracking,and

returns.Trackingmessagesthatlackexplanationandreturnsthatlackvisibility

triggerdistrustandreducethelikelihoodofasecondpurchase.Retailerswhowinincross-borderdesignforconfidence,usingcoherenttrackingandstep-by-stepreturnandrefundvisibilitysocustomersalwaysknowwhatishappening.

2026Retailtrends18

Twofoundationsbehindthenewretailreality

Thenewretailrealityshowsupinthefourshiftswe’vediscussedsofar,fromagent-assistedshoppingtoomnichannelfulfilmentandcross-bordergrowth.

Together,theyraisethebarintwoplaces:retailersneedoffersthatcanbeevaluatedwithconfidence,andtheyneedpost-purchaseexperiencesthatkeeptrustintact

whenrealitychanges.Bothfoundationsdependonthesamething:carriernetworksthatcanexpressstructuredtermsandeventtruthconsistently,evenwhenthejourneyspansmultiplepartners.

2026Retailtrends19

Agentlegibility

AsAI-mediatedshoppinggrows,offerswillincreasinglybecomparedandexecutedautomatically.

Deliveryandreturnstermsneedtobeinterpretablebysystemsaswellas

humans.Therequirementisstructured,consistentinformationthatcaptures

whatadecision-makerneeds,includingdeliveryoptions,cutofftimes,deliverywindows,fees,locationconstraints,andreturnseligibilityandtimeframes.

Consistencyacrosschannelsmattersbecauseautomateddecisioningoptimizesforcertainty.Whentermsareincompleteorvarybytouchpoint,decisioning

tendstofavoroptionsthatareeasiertointerpret.

Servicetruth

Higherexpectationsraisethecostofuncertainty.Automationcanresolveroutinequestionswhenithasreliablestatus,clearexceptionreasons,andseamlessescalationforcomplexcases.

Thewinningpatternistruth-firstcommunication:whatishappening,whathappensnext,andwhatthecustomercando.

Proofpointssupportconfidence,includingconfirmation,trackingmilestones,pickupreadiness,returndrop-offproof,andrefundstatus.Whenprogress

staysvisible,supportcontactsfallandrepeatpurchasebecomesmorelikely.

2026Retailtrends20

Thenextsectionlooksatwhatmakesthisrepeatable:aconsistentviewofthepromise,theexecution,andwhatthecustomerseesafterpurchase.

experience.

In2026,

deliverytrustisbuiltacrosscarriers,

notinsideasinglebrand

SECTIONTWO

Capabilities

CAPABILITIES:

Thetruthlayer

Retailersarebeingjudgedonpromiseaccuracyandfollow-through.Customerswanttheoptiontheychoseatcheckouttostaycredible,the

trackingstorytostayclear,andthereturnsjourneytostayvisiblethroughtorefund.

Atruthlayermakesthatconsistencypossible.

Itconnectsthreeviewsofthesamejourney:

whatwasofferedandchosen,whatishappeningacrosscarriersandchannels,andwhatthe

customerseesintracking,returns,andrefunds.

Threecapabilitiesmakethisrepeatableatscale:automationwithcontrols,servicethatscaleswithevidence,andmeasurementthatclosestheloop.

Capabilities22

Automationthatearnstrust

Tomeettheexpectationofreliablepromisesandfewersurprisesacrosscheckout,delivery,andreturns,youneedautomationthatisgoverned,explainable,andanchoredinoperationaltruth.

AIismovingfromcontentandchatintooperations,whereitcantriggerrealactions.Thatincludesrefunds,reships,reroutes,claimsdecisions,andproactivemessaging.Speedandscalearerealadvantageshere,

andtheycomewithaclearoperationalprice:smalldatagapsandsmallprocessflawscanrepeatfastwhenautomationrunsendtoend.

Thisiswhythepracticalshiftin2026ispragmaticautomation.Teamsaremovingfromexperimentationto

control,auditability,andcleanoperationaldata.BCGnotes26thatleadingretailersareredirectingspendfromAIpilotsintothebuildingblocks,includinghigh-qualitydataandscalableinfrastructurethatturnsexperimentsintorepeatableoperations.

Capabilities23

Whatmustbetrue:

Regulatoryreadinessbecomesoperationalwork.

EUAIActobligationsphasein29,andthedirectionoftravelistowardstrongerdocumentationandtransparency