2025年全球智库行业状况报告 THE ON THINK TANKS STATE OF THE SECTOR REPORT 2025 Trust in Evidence IN CHALLENGING TIMES

INCHALLENGING

TIMES

TT

AlbalCnltancy

andplfrmrchane

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

EDITING:

SophieGillespie

DESIGNANDTYPESETTING:MagdaCastría

OTTCOMMUNICATIONSTEAM:AndreaCabrera

KshipraAjrekar

AUTHORS:

CamilaUlloa

EnriqueMendizabalEstefaníaTerán

PARTNERORGANISATIONS:

ACED(Benin),CAPRI(Jamaica),CAPSUnlock(Kazakhstan),CentreforaSmartFuture/ColomboUrbanLab(SriLanka),CentrodeInvestigacióndelaUniversidaddelPacífico(Peru),CIPPEC(Argentina),EspacioPúblico(Chile),Ethos(Mexico),GrupoFARO(Ecuador),IDEASMalaysia(Malaysia),IDMAlbania(Albania),InnovationCenterforArtificialIntelligenceandHumanRights

(Pakistan),Insight21,UniversidadSigloXXI(Argentina),InstituteforGovernment(UK),IPAR(Senegal),MadinahInstitute(SaudiArabia),NepalPolicyInstitute(Nepal),NkafuPolicyInstitute(Cameroon),QuincyInstitute(USA),ResultsforDevelopment

/GovernanceActionHub(USA),SDPI(Pakistan),STEAR(Belgium),TaejaeFutureConsensusInstitute(SouthKorea),TheWilberforceSociety(UK),ThinkTankLab(Germany)

专ACED

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

WeareverygratefultothosethatmaketheOpenThinkTankDirectoryandthisreportpossible;tousersofthedirectoryandthereportformaking

ourworkrelevant;toourextendednetworkoffriends,colleagues,and

fundersforhelpinguscollectandmakesenseofthedata;andtothink

tanksthemselvesforengagingwithusandrespondingtoourconsultations–especiallyour25partners,whoarecontributingtoensurehigher

representationatthesubregionallevelandenrichingtheglobalanalysiswiththeirlocalinsights.

FUNDING

ThedevelopmentandmaintenanceoftheOpenThinkTankDirectory

andtheannualStateoftheSectorReporthasbeen,andremains,possiblethankstomanyfunders.TheOpenSocietyFoundationsgaveustheinitial

grantthatmadethedirectorypossiblein2016;theRegionalProgramme

EnergySecurityandClimateChangeLatinAmericafromKonrad-Adenauer-Stiftunge.V.fundedascopingoforganisationsinLatinAmericawitha

specificfocusonenvironmentandclimatechangein2017;UNICEFfundedascopingoforganisationsworkingintheirpriorityregionsandissues

in2019–2020;RobertBoschStiftungfundedascopingoforganisations

worldwidefocusingontopicsrelatedtomigration,peaceandsecurity,

inequality,andenvironmentin2019–2020andnowprovidestotheOn

ThinkTanksprogrammewithlong-termsupport;amappingofthinktanksinkeymarketsfortheBillandMelindaGatesFoundationin2021–2022

allowedustogaininsightsonmorethinktanks;USStateDepartment

inPanamasupportedthescopingofdataonthinktanksintheUSAand

Panamain2021;and,mostimportantly,long-termfundingfromtheHewlettFoundationandOTTConsultingmakesthemanagement,improvement,

updating,andanalysisoftheOpenThinkTankDirectory–andthedevelopmentoftheannualStateoftheSectorReport–possible.

THEOPENTHINKTANKDIRECTORY

OnThinkTankssetuptheOpenThinkTankDirectoryin2016torespondtothelackofpubliclyavailableinformationonthinktanksandotherpolicyresearchcentresworldwide.Today,itfeaturespublicinformationonmorethan3,800organisationsfromaroundtheworld.Thedirectorysupportsthesector’stransparencyandenablesthinktanksandthoseintheevidence-

informedpolicyworldtofindandconnect.Thinktankscanuseittoidentifypotentialpartnersandfunderstoidentifypotentialgrantees–anditalso

providesausefulresourceforthosewhostudythinktanks.Youcanexplorethedirectory

here

.

DefiningwhichorganisationsaretobeincludedintheOpenThinkTank

Directoryisadifficulttask,asthinktanksthemselvesaredifficulttodefine.FortheOpenThinkTankDirectory,wehavedefinedthinktanksasadiversegroupofknowledgeandengagementorganisationsthatundertakeresearch,generateknowledge,anduseevidence-informedargumentstoinformand/orinfluencepolicyanditsoutcomes.

Thedirectoryhasbeencompiledandisupdatedusingamixedapproach:websearchesonGoogletofindexistingthinktanklistsandorganisations;suggestionsbycountryandregionalexpertsorpartners;anddirect

submissionsbythinktanks.Allorganisationsarereviewedtoverifytheyfittheinclusioncriteriaandareeitheraccepted,acceptedbutdeemed“boundary”,ornotaccepted.

Itisimportanttonotethatthenatureofthedatabaseandtheinformationitholdsmakesitalivetool.Thedirectorydoesnotclaimtohaveacompletelistofallthinktanksworldwide.Butitdoesfeatureagoodsample–one

whichiscontinuouslyupdated,withnewthinktankscomingin,defunct

Isyourorganisationinthedirectory?

REGISTERHERE

onesbeingtakenout,anddatapointsbeingexpanded.Hence,whilethedataisnotperfect,itsanalysisoffersaninterestingoverviewofthetrendsandpatternsinthesector.

CONTENTS

ABOUTTHEREPORT

6

METHODOLOGY

7

MAINFINDINGS

8

OPERATINGENVIRONMENT10

1.

Growthoptimismwanes:

Thinktankswithlargerbudgetsand

thoseinwealthierdemocraciesdonot

anticipatethatthesectorwillgrow11

2.

Thinktanksreportrisingpressure

frompoliticalpolarisation:Mostin

LatinAmerica&theCaribbean,least

inMENA13

3.

Policyimpactisstrongestinboth

electoraldemocraciesandelectoral

autocracies15

4.

Thinktankagendaslargelyalign

withpublicconcerns,withkey

subregionalgaps17

FUNDINGANDSUSTAINABILITY19

5.

Corefunding:Highlysoughtafter,

hardtosecure–andnotaguarantee

oforganisationalgrowthorstrategic

stability 20

6.

Domesticmoneyisnotinherently

moreeffectiveatsupportingthinktanks

thaninternationalmoney;thinktanks

needsmartresponsestofundingcuts,

wherevertheycomefrom 23

INTERNALDYNAMICS25

7.

Unequalreturns:Leadershipsalaries

varywidelybysubregion–andsoar

inbetter-resourcedthinktanks–

butentry-levelpayremainsconstant

acrosstheboard26

8.

Beyondscale:Fundraisingremains

themost-citedcapacitygapforthink

tanksglobally–butthisandother

self-reportedneedsareconnectedto

structuralfactors,notsize29

INNOVATIONANDINCLUSION31

9.

TheemergingAIdivide:Uptakeis

drivenbygeographyandcontext–

notbyorganisationalfactors32

10.

Anunevenlandscape:Subregional

contextandinternationalfunding

drivecommitmentstoDEIpolicies,

butimplementationandresultsare

internallyfocused34

CONCLUDINGREMARKS36

REGIONALPERSPECTIVES:

INSIGHTSFROMOURPARTNERS37

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

6

About

theReport

TheOnThinkTanksStateoftheSectorReport2025offersan

overviewofhowthinktanksacrosstheglobearenavigating

anincreasinglypolarisedenvironment,andacomprehensive

snapshotofthesector’scurrentconditionandfutureprospects.

Nowinitssixthedition,thisyear’sreportdrawsonsurvey

responsesfrom333thinktanks,in102countries.Italso

incorporatesinsightsfromtheOnThinkTanks(OTT)Open

ThinkTankDirectory–coveringmorethan3,800organisationsworldwide–andsensemakingdiscussionswiththinktankersinOTT’sglobalcommunity.

Theresearchforthiseditionfollowsthemethodologywe

introducedinlastyear’sreport,allowingforrobustcross-year

comparisons.Italsointroducesnewvariables:thisyear,weaskedthinktankswhetherresearchevidenceishighlyvaluedintheirnationalcontexts,and,forthefirsttime,weincludedadetailedsectionaboutstaffsalariesbyrole,offeringnewinsightsinto

compensationstructuresandinternalequity.

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

METHODOLOGY7

SURVEYDESIGN

The

survey

comprised74questions,

coveringkeydimensionsofthethink

tanklandscape,suchasoperating

environment,organisationalcapacity,fundingmodels,internaldynamics,andmore.Mostquestionswereclosed-

ended(multiple-choiceorLikertscale),whileafewopen-endedquestionswereincludedtocapturequalitativeinsights.

Thesurveydesignwasinformedby

relevantliterature,andthequestions

werepilotedwith10thinktanksfrom14to19March2025.

DATACOLLECTION

SURVEYCODINGSHEET

ThesurveywasconductedusingAlchemerandwasopenbetween

19Marchand19May2025.Itwas

distributedtoalistofover3,000

contactsrepresentingthinktanks

acrossallglobalregions.Thislistwas

drawnfromtheOTTOpenThinkTank

Directory,supplementedwithadditionalcontactsprovidedbyourpartner

organisations.

Atotalof335responseswerereceived,ofwhichtwowereexcludedbecausetherespondingorganisationsdidnotmeetourdefinitionofathinktank.1Thefinal

dataset

comprises333validresponses,fromorganisationsacross102countries.

GEOGRAPHIC

ANDCONTEXTUALCLASSIFICATIONS

Forregionalanalysis,thereport

categorisedrespondentsintonine

geographicsubregions

,followingthe

sameapproachaslastyear’sedition:theAnglosphere,theEU&EuropeanFree

TradeArea(EFTA),non-EUEurope&

theCaucasus,East&South-EastAsia,

SouthAsia,CentralAsia,theMiddle

East&NorthAfrica(MENA),sub-

SaharanAfrica,andLatinAmerica&theCaribbean.2

Thinktankswerealsoclassifiedat

countrylevel,bynationalincome(usingthe

WorldBank

groupings:lowincome,lower-middle,upper-middle,high

income),andpoliticalregimetype(usingthe

V-Dem“RegimesoftheWorld”

typology:closedautocracy,electoralautocracy,electoraldemocracy,liberaldemocracy).

DATAANALYSIS

AlldatawereprocessedusingR.

Descriptivestatisticsandcross-

tabulationswereusedtoexploretrendsacrosssubregions,national-income

levels,andorganisational-levelvariables.Whererelevant,differencesbetween

groupsweretestedforstatistical

significanceusingstandardinferentialmethods(e.g.,chi-squaretestsfor

categoricalvariablesandlogistic

regressions).Open-endedresponseswerecodedusingAI.

LIMITATIONS

Whilethesampleislargeanddiverse,itisnotfullyrepresentativeoftheglobalthinktankpopulationduetotheopt-innatureofthesurveyandpotential

gapsinOTT’scontactdatabase.Alldataareself-reported,andthereforeresponsesmaybesubjecttobiasorincompleteness.

1.’Wedefinethinktanksasadiversegroupof

knowledgeandengagementorganisationsthatundertakeresearch,generateknowledge,anduseevidence-informedargumentstoinform

and/orinfluencepolicyanditsoutcomes.Theycanalsoperformarangeofotherfunctions,

includinginfluencingthepublicagenda,monitoringtheimplementationofspecificpolicies,andsuggestingoradvocatingforpolicychanges.

2.’ThesesubregionsarebasedontheUN

SDGIndicatorsRegionalGroupings,with

modificationsintroducedin2024and

maintainedinthisedition.Theclassificationbalancesfactorssuchasgeography,national

income,politicalandinstitutionaltraditions,andculturallinkstobetterreflectthediverseenvironmentsinwhichthinktanksoperate.

TheAnglosphere(US,Canada,UK,Australia,

andNewZealand)replacesatraditionalNorthAmericagroupingandtreatstheUKseparatelyfromtheEU,duetosharedinstitutional

characteristicsamongEnglish-speaking

countries.EuropeisdividedintoEU&EFTA

andnon-EUEurope&theCaucasus(includingTurkey),tocapturekeypoliticalandfunding

differences.InAsia,CentralAsiaandSouth

Asiaaretreatedasdistinctregions,whileEast

&South-EastAsiaaregroupedtogetherdue

tosmallersamplesizes.MiddleEast&North

African(MENA)combinesNorthernAfrica

andtheMiddleEast,andsub-SaharanAfrica

comprisestherestofthecontinent.Oceaniaisnotincluded,asnothinktanksbeyondAustraliaandNewZealandparticipatedinthesurvey.

MAINFINDINGS

8

Main

findings

Ouranalysisofthesurveyresponses,togetherwithdata

fromtheOpenThinkTankDirectory,hasgeneratedawealthofinsightsintothestateofthethinktanksectorin2025.

Thisyear,wehavefocusedon10mainfindings.Thesearepresentedinthisreport,structuredaroundfourthematicsectionsasshownbelow:

OPERATING

ENVIRONMENT

SEEMORE+

1

3

Optimismaboutsectorgrowthis

declining,particularlyamongthinktanksinwealthierdemocraciesand

thosewithlargerbudgets.Conversely,organisationsinlower-income

countriesandthoseoperatinginclosed-autocraticregimesreporthighergrowthexpectations.

Policyimpactisstrongerinelectoral

democraciesandelectoralautocracies

thaninliberaldemocraciesorclosed

autocracies.Environmentswitha

receptivemediaalsofosterhigherlevelsofpolicyinfluencecomparedtothosewherethemediaislessengaged.

2

4

Politicalpolarisationisarising

challenge,with36%ofthinktanksin

2025reportingthatitaffectsthemtoastrongdegree(upfrom24%in2024),3impactingaudienceengagement,

collaborationswithexperts,funding

options,andmediaaccess.However,inecosystemswhereresearchevidenceishighlyvalued,thinktanksarebetterabletonavigatepoliticaldivides–andin

turnarelessimpactedbythechallengesofpolarisation.

Thinktankagendaslargelyalignwithpublicconcernsoneconomicissues,

butkeygapsexistinsomeregions.

FUNDINGAND

SUSTAINABILITY

SEEMORE+

5

Corefundingismorecommonin

higher-incomecountries.Itishighlysoughtafter–butitisnotapanacea.Itisnotaguaranteeofinstitutional

growthorstrategicstability,nordoesitsignificantlyeasethepersistent

challengeofcoveringindirectcostsformostorganisations.4

6

Domesticfundingisnotinherently

moreeffectivethaninternational

fundinginhelpingthinktanksmeet

institutionalcosts;nordodomesticallyfundedorganisationsnecessarilyfinditeasiertosecurenewfunders.

3.Includesresponsesinthe“significantly”and“verymuch”categories,tothequestion“Towhatextenthaspoliticalpolarisationimpactedyourorganisation’sabilitytodoresearchandoperate?”

4.Corefundingisthefinancialsupportthatcoversanorganisation’sessentialoperationalcosts–likesalaries,rent,utilities,andadministrativeexpenses–ratherthanbeingtiedtoaspecificproject.

9

MAINFINDINGS

INTERNAL

DYNAMICS

SEEMORE+

7

Salarystructuresrevealunequalreturns.Leadershipsalariesarehigherinthink

tanksthatreceivecorefunding,and

significantlyincreasecommensuratewithanorganisation’soverallturnover.Entry-levelpay,however,remains

consistentdespitethesevariables,andacrossallsubregions.

8

Capacitygapsareconnectedto

organisationalstructure,notsize.

Thinktankslackingdedicatedinternalunitsforhumanresourcesorfinance

consistentlyreporttheneedfor

capacitybuildingintheseareas.Overall,fundraisingwascitedasoneofthemostpressingcapacitygaps,regardlessofathinktank’ssizeorfundingstructure.

INNOVATION

ANDINCLUSION

SEEMORE+

9

AIusehassignificantlyincreased,

with71%ofthinktanksusingAItools

in2025(upfrom57%in2024),primarilyforcommunicationsandresearch.

However,AIuseisdrivenmainly

bycontextual,ratherthaninternal

organisational,factors;thismayexplainwhyasignificantgeographicdigital

dividepersists–

andgrows.

10

Diversity,equity,andinclusion(DEI)

isunevenlyembedded,withathink

tank’slocationandmainfunding

source(internationalratherthan

domestic)beingstrongerpredictorsofDEIengagementthanitsorganisationalsizeorturnover.Genderisthemost

commonfocusofanorganisation’s

DEIpolicy(64%),andimplementationistypicallyconcentratedoninternalgovernanceandHRpractices,with

lessapplicationtoresearchdesignorexternalactivities.

Whilenotintendedasacausalorprescriptiveanalysis,theStateoftheSectorReport2025providesvaluableevidencethatwe

hopewillinspireandinformbothreflectionandaction.Weinvitethinktanks,funders,andsupportersofevidence-informedpolicytoexploretheseinsights,engageincriticaldiscussion,andusethisreporttoinformstrategy,collaboration,andlearning.

Additionalanalysisandreflectionare

offeredonOTT’swebsite–viathededicatedStateoftheSector2025pageandacrossitswidercontent.

OPERATINGENVIRONMENT

ABOUTTHETHINKTANKSINOURDIRECTORY*

GEOGRAPHICLOCATION

→TheEU&EFTAsubregionhoststhelargestconcentrationofthinktanksinthedirectory(25%oftheglobaltotal)

→CentralAsiaistheleast-representedsubregion,makingup0.8%ofthe

directory

AVERAGE

THINKTANKAGE(GLOBAL)

33years

TYPEOFORGANISATION

→67%non-profit

→16%universityinstitute→8%governmental

organisation→5%for-profit

→4%other

GLOBALDISTRIBUTIONOFTHINKTANKS,BYSUBREGION

6%Sub-SaharanAfrica

6%Non-EUEurope&theCaucasus

14%East&South-EastAsia

5%SouthAsia

13%LatinAmerica

5%MENA

1%CentralAsia

25%EU&EFTA

24%Anglosphere

&theCaribbean

POLITICALPOLARISATION

ofthinktankssaidpolitical

polarisationhasimpactedtheirworktoastrongdegree

(upfrom24%in2024)

36%

10

SECTORGROWTH

→24%ofthinktankssaiditwas

hardtooperateduringthelastyear

→46%ofthinktankssaidthepoliticalsituationintheircountryimpactedthemunfavourablyoverthepastyear

→Only32%ofthinktanksgloballyexpectsectorgrowthinthenext12months

Thinktanksinlow-incomecountriesareovertwice

aslikelytoexpectsectorgrowthcomparedtothoseinhigh-incomecountries

Morethinktanks(61%)

inclosedautocraciesare

optimisticaboutsector

growth,comparedtothoseinliberaldemocracies(22%)

Whenevidenceisvalued,growthexpectationssoar:

Only13%ofthinktanksexpectsector

growthincountrieswhereevidenceisnotvalued–comparedto52%incountrieswhereevidenceishighlyvalued

THINKTANKS’EXPECTATIONSFORSECTORGROWTH

(NEXT12MONTHS)

46%Growthnotexpected32%Growthexpected

23%Don’tknow

POLICYIMPACT

70%

ofthinktanksreportedmakingapolicyimpactinthelast5years,slightlydownfrom77%in2024

Policyimpactis

strongerinelectoraldemocraciesand

electoralautocracies

Policyimpactis

strongerinregionswithareceptive

media

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

Unlessotherwisenoted,dataisbasedonresponsestothe2025OTTthinktanksurvey(n=333).Informationmarked*isbasedondatafromtheOpenThinkTankDirectory(n=3,164;dataextracted31July2025).

THEONTHINKTANKSSTATEOFTHESECTORREPORT2025

OPERATINGENVIRONMENT11

1

Growthoptimismwanes:

Thinktankswithlargerbudgetsandthoseinwealthierdemocraciesdonotanticipatethatthesectorwillgrow

Growthexpectationsforthesectorarerelativelylowacrosstheboard.Only32%ofsurveyedorganisationsbelievetheircountry’sthinktanksectorwillgrowinthenext12months,while46%donotexpectanygrowth,and23%areunsure.5

EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,BYNATIONALINCOMELEVEL

Thinktanksinhigh-andupper-middle-incomecountriesaresubstantiallylessoptimisticaboutgrowthinthesectorthanthoseinlower-incomecontexts(Table1).Thissuggeststhatthinktanksoperatingwithmoreconstrainedresourcesmayseegreateropportunityforexpansionortransformation.Atthesametime,thoseinhigh-incomesettingsmayface

morematureand/orsaturatedpolicyresearchenvironments,limitingtheirexpectationsforbroadersectoralgrowth.

Thesamepatternholdswhenthinktanksareaskedaboutthe

growthoftheirownorganisation–thoseinlower-incomesettingsaremoreoptimisticthantheirpeersinhigher-incomecountries.

TABLE1.EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,

BYNATIONAL-INCOMEGROUP

Organisationsthatexpectthethinktanksector

intheircountrytogrowoverthenext12months(%)

Lowincome

63%

Lowermiddle

48%

Uppermiddle

27%

Highincome

21%

EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,BYPOLITICALREGIME

Politicalcontextsalsoshapehowthinktanksperceivethe

future.WhenanalysedusingtheV-Dem“Regimesofthe

World”typology,aclearpatternemerges:thinktanksinliberaldemocraciesaretheleastoptimisticaboutsectoralgrowth

comparedtorespondentsinotherpoliticalcontexts(Table2).

Again,thepatternholdswhenitcomestogrowthonan

organisationallevelexpectations:thinktanksoperating

5.Itisimportanttonotethatallfindingsinthisreportreflectthethinktanksampleinoursurvey,andarenotnecessarilyrepresentativeofthethinktankuniverseasawhole.

withinclosedautocraciesaremorelikelytoexpecttheirownorganisationtogrowinthenext12months,comparedtothoseinotherregimetypes.

TABLE2.EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,BYPOLITICALREGIME

Organisationsthatexpectthethinktanksector

intheircountrytogrowoverthenext12months(%)

Closed

autocracy

61%

Electoral

autocracy

34%

Electoral

democracy

31%

Liberal

democracy

22%

EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,BYSUBREGION

Atthesubregionallevel,sub-SaharanAfrica(59%)andMENA(54%)aretheonlycategorieswherethinktankswithoptimismaboutsectoralgrowthareinthemajority,whilethinktanks

intheEU&EFTA,theAnglosphere,andLatinAmerica&theCaribbeanhavethelowestexpectationsofgrowth(Figure1).

Itisinterestingtonotethatdespitesub-SaharanAfricanand

SouthAsianthinktanksbeingamongthemostafectedby

USAIDfundingcutsinearly2025(priortothedisseminationofoursurvey),thesearestilltheregionsthatreportthehighestexpectationsofgrowth–bothforthesectorasawholeandfortheirownorganisations.

FIGURE1.EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALGROWTH,BYSUBREGION

Doyouexpectthethinktanksectorinyourcountrytogrowinthenext12months?

YesNoDon'tknow

Sub-SaharanAfricaMENA

SouthAsia

CentralAsia

East&South-EastAsia

Non-EUEurope&theCaucasusAnglosphere

LatinAmerica&theCaribbeanEU&EFTA

0%25%50%75%100%

Surveysample:333

DIDYOUKNOW?

Despitebeinggenerallycautiousaboutthegrowthofthe

sectorasawhole,thethinktankswesurveyedhavemuch

higherconfidenceintheirowninstitutionalfuture.Weinviteyoutoexplorethisandotherinsights,andinvestigatethe

factorsbehindthem,byvisiting

/sos2025

OPERATINGENVIRONMENT12

1

EXPECTATIONSOFGROWTH,BYORGANISATIONALSIZE

Whenweanalysedwhichvariablesmightafectathinktank’splansforgrowth–usinghighexpectationsofsectoraland/ororganisationalgrowthasaproxyforintentionstoexpandtheirownorganisation–aparticularlystrongpatternappearedin

relationtoorganisationalturnover.

AsFigure2shows,smallerthinktanks–i.e.,thosewithannualturnoverunderUSD100,000–aremorethantwiceaslikely

toexpectgrowthasthosewithturnoveraboveUSD5million(70%vs29%).Thisdiferenceisstatisticallysignificantand

highlightshowinstitutionalscalemayafectathinktank’splansforexpansion.

FIGURE2.EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORALANDORGANISATIONALGROWTH,BYANNUALTURNOVER

ExpectingorganisationalgrowthExpectingsectorgrowth

75%

50%

25%

LessthanUSD100K–USD500K–USD1.5M–MorethanUSD100K499K1.49M5MUSD5M

45%

28%

19%

32%

13%

0%

48%

64%

66%

29%

70%

Surveysample:333

6.Findoutmoreaboutthistopichere:

/resource/the-small-think-tank-trap/

FIGURE3.EXPECTATIONSOFSECTORAL/ORGANISATIONALGROWTH,ANDPERCEIVEDAPPRECIATIONFORRESEARCHEVIDENCE

Agreementwiththestatement:

Evidencefromresearchishighlyvaluedinyourcountry

ExpectingorganisationalgrowthExpectingsectorgrowth

75%

50%

25%

0%

72%

67%

57%

46%

52%

30%30%

28%

45%

13%

Stronglydisagree

DisagreeNeutralAgreeStrongly

agree

Surveysample:333

Liketheirlargercounterparts,mid-sizedorganisations(turnoverofUSD500,000–1.49million)alsoreportlowerexpectations

ofgrowth.Thiscautionmayreflecttheuniquechallenges

thatmedium-sizedthinktanksface:toosmalltobenefitfromeconomiesofscaleandtoolargetocompetewithsmallerthinktanks,whichareoftennimblerandmorecompetitive.6

Otherorganisationalvariables,suchasstafsize,fundingtype(corevsproject-specificfunding),ormainfundingsource

(domesticvsinternationalfunders),donotsignificantly

impactgrowthexpectations,accordingtooursurveydata.

DOESANATIONALAPPRECIATIONFOREVIDENCEAFFECTSECTORALGROWTHEXPECTATIONS?

Organisationsthatperceiveahigherappreciationforresearchevidenceintheircountryaremorelikelytobeoptimistic

abouttheirowngrowth.Whenitcomestoexpectationfor

sectoralgrowth,thereisanevenstarkerdiference:only13%ofrespondentswhodisagreethatevidenceisvaluedintheircountryexpectthesectortogrowinthenextyear,versus52%ofthosewhostronglyagree(Figure3).

QUESTIONSFORDISCUSSION

1.Doesgreatercompetitioninsaturatedpolicyenvironments(e.g.,thepresenceofconsultancies,universities,advocacygroups)reducetheperceivedrelevanceofthinktanks–andspacefortheirgrowth–inhigher-incomecountries?

2.Isthereagrowingpessimismamongthinktanks