化债进展与城投分化

正文目录TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u城债况融缩、成下行 4市化营体 6新立体退融平台体 8区级低级体 9图表目录图表1:2022以分城投资况亿） 4图表2:2023.8-2026.1投募资用分布 4图表3:2022各城债券行面率势） 5图表4:分份府作报披的债新展 6图表5:场经主的时分（） 7图表6:场经主的省分（） 7图表7:A主与区层级隐评的差比（bp） 7图表8:A主与a主差对（bp） 7图表9:B主与b主利差比（bp） 8图表10:C主和c主的利对（bp） 8图表11:2023年来退出资台城汇（个） 8图表12:隐评级AA，2024退融平主体城利对(bp) 9图表13:隐评级AA(2)下，2024年出资的主与投差比（bp） 9图表14:全分级级和县利走（bp） 9图表15:全隐评级AA-分级市和县差走（bp） 9图表16:截至2月6各省差分数布（bp、） 10图表17:弱质XX省县级差势动（bp） 10图表18:强质YY省县级差势动（bp） 10202371城投债近况：融资缩量、成本下行近2026图表1:2022年来月投情况亿） 图表2:2023.8-2026.1城募资金途布10,000

发行量 偿还量 净融资（右）

4,000

补充流动资金1

项目建设 其他1 38,0006,0004,000

3,0002,000

偿还有息债务152,000 1,0000-2,000-4,000-6,000

02022/012022/032022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/092023/112024/012024/032024/052024/072024/092024/112025/012025/032025/052025/072025/092025/112026/01-2,000

借新还旧80业预警 业预警1 https:///yaowen/liebiao/202307/content_6893950.htm图表3:2022年省投券票面率势（）地区2026-H12025-H22025-H12024-H22024-H12023-H22023-H12022-H22022-H1北京市2.092.042.192.272.593.063.573.003.11天津市2.022.192.472.543.004.496.855.434.97河北省2.242.292.522.482.974.034.464.374.43山西省1.872.773.734.004.043.61内蒙古2.593.503.246.50辽宁省2.532.742.753.283.295.255.775.785.55吉林省2.582.462.582.773.034.715.485.185.77黑龙江省2.353.172.473.835.094.795.296.16上海市2.101.973.0江苏省32.312.693.343.973.313.72浙江省92.352.693.343.763.273.45安徽省72.362.753.564.123.393.73福建省62.332.623.293.823.233.40江西省92.532.853.794.353.703.71山东省2.452.582.742.783.264.394.804.274.07河南省2.492.482.682.743.064.174.934.014.35湖北省12.482.723.874.363.773.80湖南省2.362.282.442.522.844.024.613.914.46广东省2.032.042.172.282.552.913.082.712.74广西2.522.392.712.793.024.69海南省2.562.944.034.183.95重庆市2.512.482.602.743.194.625.504.955.14四川省2.252.352.392.633.034.204.444.064.31贵州省3.183.283.413.493.544.905.555.435.11云南省2.622.622.843.093.525.776.745.285.03西藏2.072.122.312.834.124.473.843.71陕西省2.462.642.852.963.124.555.034.444.69甘肃省3.902.322.562.422.545.28青海省3.503.913.947.035.956.24宁夏1.902.262.452.793.205.595.024.773.15新疆2.332.422.582.562.803.744.213.864.01业预警图表4:部分省份政府工作报告披露的化债最新进展省份 化债成果天津市一年来，债务化解有序推进，到期债务本息全部按时足额兑付，融资平台新退出53家，全面完成清欠企业账年度任务，高风险中小金融机构全部出列。1）2025年风险防控有力有效、底线稳固。分类施策压降存量隐性债务规模，兜牢兜实基层“三保”

全部达到2）缓释，防风化债取得阶段性成效，牢牢守住了不发生系统性风险的底线。1）这一年，提前完成清理拖欠企业账款工作。海南省2）五年来，坚决防范税收风险，有效化解地方政府债务风险、金融风险、重领域未发生系统性风险。三资”，多措并举化解存量债务，债务成本持续降低，债务结构五年来，我们在党中央关心下，政府债务“爆雷”风险能力有办法在发展中解决债务问题！陕西省一年来，稳妥化解地方政府债务、中小金融机实现清零。甘肃省“十四五”期间，落实一揽子化债化保交房7.4万套住房全部交付。山东省地方政府债务、中小金融机辽宁省一年来，超额完成隐性债清理拖欠企业账款年青海省一年来，超额完1）成功退吉林省2）实施11河南业预警市场化经营主体202627202310A116利差3b，而20231018bpAaAa27bp。4003503002502001501005003002502001501005002023-01-174003503002502001501005003002502001501005002023-02-162023-03-152023-04-122023-05-102023-06-062023-07-04业预警2023-07-31业预警2023-08-252023-09-212023-10-242023-11-202023-12-152024-01-112024-02-06A主体A主体2024-04-072024-05-062024-05-302024-06-272024-07-24可比对象2024-08-20可比对象2024-09-142024-10-172024-11-132024-12-102025-01-072025-02-082025-03-062025-04-022025-04-292025-05-292025-06-262025-07-232025-08-192025-09-152025-10-162025-11-122025-12-0925015010072026-01-0625015010075002023-01-175002023-02-162023-03-152023-04-122023-05-102023-06-06业预警2023-07-04业预警2023-07-312023-08-252023-09-212023-10-242023-11-202023-12-152024-01-112024-02-062024-03-08A主体A主体2024-05-062024-05-302024-06-272024-07-242024-08-20a主体a主体2024-10-172024-11-132024-12-102025-01-072025-02-082025-03-062025-04-022025-04-292025-05-292025-06-262025-07-232025-08-192025-09-152025-10-162025-11-122025-12-092026-01-06

省省C20244cC101bp，c29bpcCC20244cC101bp，c29bpcCc不多。图表5:市场化经营主体的时间分布（个）图表6:市场化经营主体的省份分布（个）1801601401201008060402002023202420252026业预警业预警图表7:A（bp）图表8:Aa（bp）广西壮区省市市新疆维吾 云南省天津市山西省甘肃省贵州省黑龙江内蒙古自治区宁夏回 区专题研究B2024专题研究B20241bB34bp，而b主体的利差收窄幅度为40bp。图表9:B主与b主的差比（bp） 图表10:C主和c主的差比（bp）业预警 业预警新成立主体及退出融资平台主体2024AA2024AA(220252024图表11:2023年以来各地退出融资平台的城投汇总（个）非发债 发债80070060050040030020010002023

2024

2025

2026业预警图表12:AA，2024bp)

图表13:AA(2)下，2024（bp）业预警 业预警区县级&低评级主体AA图表14:全国分省级、市级和区县级利差走势（bp）

图表15:全国隐含评级AA-分省级、市级和区县级利差走势（bp）250200

全国 省级 地市级 区县级

700600

全国 省级 地市级 区县级1501002023-02-062023-03-062023-02-062023-03-062023-04-032023-05-042023-05-312023-06-292023-07-272023-08-242023-09-212023-10-252023-11-222023-12-202024-01-172024-02-192024-03-182024-04-162024-05-152024-06-132024-07-112024-08-082024-09-052024-10-102024-11-062024-12-042025-01-022025-02-062025-03-052025-04-022025-04-302025-06-032025-07-012025-07-292025-08-262025-09-232025-10-272025-11-242025-12-222026-01-20

400300200100-086业预警 业预警图表16:截至2月6日各利及分数布（bp）省份信用利差-全部信用利差-省级信用利差-地市级信用利差-区县级近三年分位-全部近三年分位-省级近三年分位-地市级近三年分位-区县级全国37.1725.4938.2437.963.453.723.453.45北京市28.0118.9733.096.774.386.51天津市38.3534.0949.653.192.262.66河北省42.8530.4441.656.536.5116.872.791.99山西省30.3632.0228.5772.651.461.731.991.59内蒙古75.3375.3334.930.93辽宁省67.4963.3168.561.060.661.33吉林省47.1826.1549.1111.464.383.451.331.33黑龙江省47.0147.016.916.91上海市24.0123.3524.436.377.846.11江苏省28.9314.8428.5229.832.925.843.323.05浙江省28.4613.9927.0628.673.597.843.592.79安徽省33.7715.5733.1339.953.599.163.722.79福建省28.4322.7428.1531.523.4513.283.982.79江西省40.8419.3340.8152.911.335.841.062.79山东省57.6321.7946.7768.065.985.443.323.32河南省53.0127.4753.4469.614.652.126.374.78湖北省36.7233.3933.8648.053.325.183.054.91湖南省39.3418.5642.3342.293.596.373.724.91广东省29.9115.4729.9383.985.18广西70.7925.8682.4270.314.914.523.721.06海南省43.2823.7851.160.664.250.8重庆市38.3754.91318.593.59四川省22.7154.5643.983.98贵州省153.5526.53161.56185.280.662.392.790.53云南省83.1643.0688.37113.324.912.264.384.78西藏27.6853.2724.882.663.980.53陕西省66.269.7965.5675.45.99甘肃省53.9442.58108.1910.769.035.98青海省80.1280.125.585.58宁夏52.4231.1158.265.585.842.79新