瑞银 -中国经济展望：瑞银中国宏观日总结 China Economic Perspectives Takeaways from UBS China Macro Day

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GlobalResearch

23March2026

ChinaEconomicPerspectives

TakeawaysfromUBSChinaMacroDay

UBSChinaMacroDay

UBShostedaChinaMacroDayon17–18MarchinBeijing.Theeventfeatured10seniorexperts.Wesummarizekeyfindingsbelow.

PresidentTrump’sdelayedvisittoChina

PresidentTrump’splannedtriptoChinaremainsonthetable,eventhoughithasbeenconfirmedtobedelayedbyroughlyamonth.Potentialtopicsfortheupcomingvisitcouldinclude:purchasesofairplanes,soybeansandotheragricultureproducts,oilandgas(thoughoneexpertnoteditwoulddependonrelativeprices),cooperationonfentanylcontrols,andeasingrestrictionsonrareearthexports.Thenew301investigationcouldbecomeanothersourceofdiscussion,withsomeoftheexpertsanticipatingpotentialadditionaltariffs.Meanwhile,theexpertsbelieveChinamayrequestrelaxingexportcontrolsforhigh-endchips.Beyondtheupcomingvisititself,theexpertsbelievetheUSisprimarilyseekingstabilityinUS-Chinarelations.

China’srelationshipwiththeEUandJapan

Theexpertsholdmixedviews.Despitetherecentvisitsbyforeignofficials,someoftheexpertsbelieveChina-EUrelationstobemorenuancedthantheyhaveappeared.TheybelievethatChina’sgeopoliticalstanceanditsstrongexportcompetitivenesshavenotnecessarilybeenviewedpositivelybyEurope,whilesomealsoarguethatChina-Japanrelationsappeartobeatadeeperimpassethanpreviousepisodes.However,otherexpertstakeamoreconstructiveviewandbelieveEuropeandChinawilladoptapragmaticapproachandmaintainafunctioningworkingrelationship.ChinaappearswillingtosetupproductionfacilitiesinEuropeiflabourcostsarereasonable,especiallyinsectorswhereChinahasatechnologyedge,suchasEVs,solarorlithiumbatteries.Chinacanalsoincreaseimportstoreducetradeimbalance.SomeoftheexpertsnotedthattheybelievetraderelationswithJapanarenotaffectedbypoliticsasmuchastheymayappearandtheChina-Japanrelationshipcouldimproveinthelongerterm.

ExportgrowthtoslowfromthestrongJan-Febreading

ExpertsbelievetheexceptionallystrongJan-Febexportgrowthwasboostedbytheone-yeartariffpostponement,somefront-loading,andCNYeffect.TheMarch-Aprilreadingswilllikelynormalize(UBSexpectMarchexportstodeclineYoY).ThefuturetrajectoryofChina’sexportswilldependonUS-ChinatradetalksandhowtheMiddleEastconflictevolves.ThestrongexportgrowthtoAfrica(26%in2025)islikelytoslow,whileLatinAmericamaybethenextgrowthdriver.Exporttaxrebatesareunderpersistentpressuretobeadjusteddown.Externalpressurescouldleadtopartialorcategory-specificadjustments,butchangesarelikelygradual.Overall,expertsexpectexportstosecureadecent4-5%growthin2026.

Mixedviewsonwhetherdomesticactivitieswillreboundin2026

SomeexpertsbelieveChina’sindustrialutilizationratehasbeenrecoveringsinceQ32024,drivenbybetterdemandandslowersupplygrowth.Withpropertyactivitiesenteringtheirlastyearofdownturn,thereboundofmanufacturinginvestmentshouldlifttheeconomyandPPIoutofdeflation.Consumptionrecoveryissettofollow,aswagegrowthoflistedcompanieshasbottomedout(4%in2025vs2%in2024)andhouseholdnetworthturnedupwardlastyear(inotherwords,householdincomeandequitymarket'srallymorethanoffsetthelossfromthenegativewealtheffectfromhousing).OtherexpertspointoutthatChinastillfacesinsufficientdemand,primarilyreflectedinweakconsumption,drivenbythesignificantroleofthestateandhighnationalsaving.Theyarguethatthemostimportantpolicyshouldfocusonboostingenddemandbyincreasingthepayoutlevelofurban-ruralresidentpensions,targeting

Economics

China

YuSong

Economist

yu-za.song@

+86-10-58328508

JenniferZhong

Economist S1460516050002

jennifer-a.zhong@

+86-105-8328324

GraceWang

Economist S1460524050003

grace-zc.wang@

+86-105-8328335

WilliamDeng

Economist

william-w.deng@

+852-29716765

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLimited.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,iNcLuDiNGiNFoRmAtioNoNtHEQuANtitAtivEREsEARcHREviEwpuBLisHEDByUBS,BEGiNoNpAGE3.

ChinaEconomicPerspectives23March2026婚§2

low-incomeruralresidents.Multipleexpertsbelievethepropertydownturnmaytakelonger(atleastthrough2026),andanysubsequentreboundwilllikelybestructuralratherthanbroad-based.SomeexpertsexpectinfrastructureinvestmenttorecoverinH226whenmajorprojectsfromthe15thFYPstart.Interestingly,expertsexpresseddifferentinterpretationsofthegovernment’s“4.5-5%”growthtargetfor2026.SomebelievethegovernmentwillbecontentifGDPgrowthfallswithintherange,whileothersbelieveitstillaimsforaround5%butwantsleewayamidthepropertydownturn,externaluncertainties,concernsaboutexcessinvestmentiffiscalexpansionistoostrong,andpotentialdataissues.ManyexpertsindicatedtheybelievetheRMBisundervalued,withsomeseeingUSDCNYending2026at6.6-6.7(a5-6%appreciation).

AconsensusviewthatChinawillexitdeflationin2026

MostoftheexpertsexpectChina’sdeflationtoendin2026,buttheirrationalediffers.Someattributedthechangetodemandrecoveryonthebackofpro-growthpoliciesinthepast2-3years,improvinginflationaryexpectations,andariseinPPI.Othersbelievethecurrentdeflationenvironmentwillserveastherighttimewindowtoreformutilityprices(e.g.residentialwater/electricitytariffsorsubwayfares).Overall,withconsumptiononlyrecoveringfromalowbase,someexpertspointoutthatanyrecoveryislikelymodestandexpectCPItorecoveronlyto0.5-1%in2026(vs0%in2025).

Expectationforpolicies

●Onfiscalpolicies,expertsnotethatthegeneralfiscaldeficitandissuanceofspecialCGBs/specialLGBswerekeptunchangedbecausethegrowthtargetwaslowered.Thatsaid,broadfiscalsupportislargerwhenaccountingforquasi-fiscalspendingthroughpolicybanks,PBoC’sstructuraltools,governmentfunds,and/orSOEs.Otherexpertsbelievethecentralgovernmentisconcernedwithfiscalsustainabilitygivensizablelocalgovernmentdebt.

●Onmonetarypolicy,someexpertsbelievethePBoCmaybereluctanttocutpolicyrates,especiallyifrealratesdroprapidlywheninflationrises.Theythinkdepositratesareunlikelytomovedownfurther.OtherexpertsstillexpectthePBoCtocut,especiallyafterpotentialFedcutsinH2,consideringrealratesarestillelevated.Thatsaid,thesizeislikelymodestandthePBoCmayexplorestructuraltoolsinstead.OthersexpectthePBoCtocutfurtherandnotethatcapitalinjectionshouldhelpbankscopingwithnarrowingNIM.Ratecutscouldpotentiallypushbankstoexpandfee-generatingservices.

●Onconsumptionpolicy,mostexpertsindicatedthattheyagreeadditionalpoliciesseemtobemodestin2026.Somecitethegovernment’splantoincreasehouseholdincome,potentiallyraisingcivilservantwages.Otherexpertsbelievethere’sroomtoexpandserviceconsumptionbyeasingregulationsandrelaxingmarketaccess(e.g.hospitals,schools,high-endauto/yachtservices).

●Onpropertypolicies,anticipationofmajoreasingislimited.Infact,policysupportisexpectedtoscalebackifpropertysalesshowsignsofrecovery,whichhasbeenthecaserecently(seehighfrequencytracker).Someexpertsnotetheexistingbottleneckswithpropertydestocking.

●Onreforms,manyexpertsbelieveChinamayneedtobroadenfiscalsourcesoflocalgovernment.Onepossiblewayisthroughimposingawealthtax,whichmightenhancelocalgovernments’incentivestoprotectprivatepropertyandsupportprivatesector.Thatsaid,itseemsexpectationsonmajorreformmeasuresin2026islow.

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ChinaEconomicPerspectives23March2026a§5

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