2026年全球科技展望：前后走势分化报告（英文版）-

Morganstanley

RESEARCHFoundation

March13,202602:47PMGMT

InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacific

GlobalTechnology2026Outlook–ATaleofTwo

Halves

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+

ShawnKim

EquityAnalyst

Shawn.Kim@

+44207677-1018

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc,SeoulBranch+

RyanKim

EquityAnalyst

Ryan.G.Kim@

+822399-4939

MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+

DuanLiu

EquityAnalyst

Duan.Liu@

+8522239-7357

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+

CindyHuang

EquityAnalyst

Cindy.Huang@

+44207425-2915

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

report.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

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2

ExecutiveSummary

AIStockLeadershipBroadeningBeyondLogic,CommodityMemoryandSemicap

•Weexpectthetrendsthatbeganin2025-AIspendingandcommodityrally-tocontinueinthefirsthalfof2026:Thesetrendscouldbecome

increasinglychallengedbydemanddestructioninto2H26.WefavorpricingpowerandAI-themedstocksthathavebeenworking,andrecommendcreatingabarbellwithstocksthathavesoldoffsharplybutoffergoodprospectsatreasonablevaluations.

•Weexpectglobalsemiconductorrevenuein2026tohittheUS$1.3trillionmark,ledbymemoryandlogic,andrecordearnings.Withglobal

semiconductorsrevenueup68%YoYin2026e,consensusisnotexpectingarepeatbutratherismoreoptimisticfor1H26,forecasting90%higherSOXEPSgrowth.Capitalwilllikelyflowintocompaniesthatcangrowfasterthanconsensusandmuchfasterthantheoveralltechsector.

•Whereinthecycle?AmidwhatislikelytobeatransformativeandlengthyAIinvestmentcycle,pullbackscanbeopportunitiestoassessthelandscapeforattractiveentrypoints.TheISMmaintainedover50andnon-AIhasmoreupsidetomultiplesthanAInameswithalongrunwaytomid-cyclemultiples,unlessthereisanythingundiscoveredleftinAInames.

KeyDebates

•Techinflationanddemanddestructionimpact:Weexpect“priceelasticity”toaffectdemandfortechproducts.Risingwafer,OSATandmemorycostsshouldcreatemoremarginheadwindsfortechproductsandchipdesignersinto2H26.TheAIthemeshouldbroadenintodifferentverticalsdrivenbyAgenticAI

adoption,contentgrowthandnewproductcycles,whileEdgeAIcomputeinsmartphoneandPCispushedbackonsharplyhigherinputcosts.

•MemoryremainsasignificantAIbottleneck-whereisthenextone?Memorysitsinacapacity-constrainedcyclewithunusuallylongordervisibilitydrivenbyAIinference.Aperiodofextendedcapacityconstraintandmemorypricingpowershiftingatlightningspeedcouldleadtounprecedentedcapexby2028

whereEUVcouldbecomethenextbottleneckandsemicapsflourish.

•ResurgenceofdigitalconsumptionandplatformsinChina:ChinatechoutperformedS&Ptechin2025meaningfully,withaweakerUSDcurrency,

commoditypricerallyandChinatechrevival–similartolasttimeEMoutperformedin2017.AcceleratingagenticAIadoption,improvingROIfromefficiencyandincreasedspendingonAIinfrastructure/GPUfavorsemiconductionmanufacturinglocalizationandnewfrontierAImarketsinphysicalAI.

•Withintech,thereisstillagroupofunloved,cash-generativeandwell-fundedcompaniesthatcoulddorelativelywell:Increasedexposuretoselectiveanalog,consumerstockswilllikelyofferusefuldiversificationonceacorrectioncomes.

•ChinaAI--OpenClawtriggeredinferencingAIdemandbutwilldomesticGPUsbesufficient?Chinacontinuestodemonstratemoreefficient/lowercostinferencinginnovation,drivingopportunitiesinChina’sdomesticGPUsupplychain.

GlobalStockPicks

Framework:Ourstockselectionprocessisbottom-upbasedon:1)growthatareasonablepricewithmeaningfulmomentuminearningsrevisions;2)end-market

momentum;and3)expectationsinrevenueYoYrateofchange.WemaintainabiastowardbigAInamesthatcanbeaccessedviaUSandAsiasemis.

Semiconductors

•Processors:WestayOWonNVIDIAandBroadcom,withapreferenceforNVDAdespiterisingASICenthusiasm,thankstoitsindustry'shighestROIsolutioninCloud,particularlyasVeraRubinrampsin2H26.WeareEWonAMD,Marvell,andIntel,andOWALABassmall-capdatacenterexposureplay.

•ScalingAIgrowthincreasinglybenefitsmemory,foundryandSPEasbottlenecksshifttowardfront-endwafercapacityandDDR5DRAM,leadingustofavorSamsung,SKhynixandMicronalongsideSNDK,ASML,ASMI,AMATandMKSIinequipment,andTSMCinfoundry.

•Semicap:WeareOWAMATasthecompanyhasthemostleveragetogreenfieldDRAMinourcoverage,andonourviewthatChina,ICAPS,andleading-

edgelogicarederisked.InJapan,werecommendAdvantest,DISCO,TokyoSeimitsuandMicronics.Keydrivers:1)HBMgrowth;2)high-bandwidthmemoryforEdgeAIapplications;and3)flashmemorymarketfromtheadoptionofPUC.

•MoreoptimisticonAnalogdespiteChinaEVandNorthAmericanautoconcerns:Thisisagroupofmostlyunloved,cash-generativeandwell-funded

companiesthatcoulddorelativelywell.Wewouldlooktoturnmorebullishinto2H26sequencingthecycle.WefavorIPviaEDAtoolprovidersandIPplays

drivenbyAIdesignactivity.

•EW/UW:Vanguard,HuaHong,WINSemi,ASMedia,UMC.

Hardware

•AIsupplychainexposure:1)High-endABFsubstrates(Trainium/TPU)SEMCO,networkPCBs(TPU)inGoldCircuitandIsuPetasys;2)AIserverMLCC

inSEMCOandMurata;3)AIserverassemblyWiwynn,Accton,Kingslide,BizLinkandDelta;4)ThermalpowermanagementAVCandFositekoverAuras.

•Pricingpower,cloudexposureoruniqueassets:ThisisledbyWDC,STX,AAPL,SNX,andTDC.

•Canariesinthecoalmine:Staycautiousonmemory-leveraged,richlyvaluedhardwarenames.

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

GlobalSectorPicks-Semiconductors

SectorViewAIseculardriversaredurable,TMSCCoWoSisstillpromising

MostPreferred:

WeseeDRAMpricingmoving

markets,memorystockstend

Samsung,Winbond

LeastPreferred:

Memory

pastall-timehighs.Newpricinghighstypicallyleadtonewstockhighs,withplentyofearningsthistimetobackthemup.Inconservativetooutperform-supportingacontinuedinvestmentstanceacrossthesector.

PSMC

Semiconductor

ICFoundry-LeadingEdgehIdiaIPsulllnlteina0icClRidilTligfrt,swhileTaiwanmaturedfoundryreceivedsomerushordersaheadoftariffsin2Q25.

MostPreferred:

TSMC

SPESPEupsidetobroaden

favourDRAM-exposed

in2H26.Whileback-endstrengthtiedtoAIremainsintact,front-endequipmentshouldre-accelerateonadvancedlogicandDRAMdemand.Weleaders,China-localbeneficiaries,andnamesmostleveredtoTSMC'sadvanced-nodeexpansion.

MostPreferred:

Resonac,Advantest,ASML,AMAT,NAURA,

AMEC,SCREEN,ASMI

Discrete/Analog

(Japan)

IGBTpricingpressurecontinuesduetooversupplydespiterecoveringdemand;weseelimitedroomforfurtherpricingdecline.MOSFETisonaslowrecoverytrend,andweprefercompanieswithincreasingautocontribution.

MostPreferred:

StarPower,Yangjie

LeastPreferred:

SilanMicro,CRMicro

ChinaMCU

Logic/ICDesign(China)

pricingand

inventoryhasreturnedtonormal,whichglobalpeersarestilldigesting.Wewillcloselymonitortheimpactfromgovernmentstimulusandexpectstablegradualdemandrecoveryfromhere.

MostPreferred:

Espressif,Gigadevice

LeastPreferred:

UnigroupGuoxin

ICdesignershouldbeimpactedbyrisingcosts,includingfoundry,OSAT,andmemory.Weexpectdemandforconsumerdevicestocomedownin2026,whichwould

ICDesignalsoputpressureonICdesignermargins.WepreferiOSandcontentgainersinPCsemis.However,forthoseICdesignhousesthathavehighexposuretoAI/Datacenter,

thedemandisstillverystrong.

MostPreferred:

Aspeed,GUC,MediaTek

LeastPreferred:

Novatek,Nuvoton,WPG,Parade,Realtek,

Elan

ICFoundry-LegacyStillimpactedbyseasonalityaswellasconsumerdemandcannibalizationfromAI,althoughthewholeindustryisrecovering.

LeastPreferred:

AWSC,WINSemi

OSATStrongAIdemandhasfurtherconstrainedchippackagingandtestingcapacityforTaiwan'sbackendfoundryvendors,suchasASEandKYEC.

MostPreferred:

KYEC

LeastPreferred:

JCET

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

MorganStanleyResearch5

GlobalSectorPicks-Hardware

Hardware

SectorViewAIServerdemandtoremainstrongthrough2026.

MostPreferred:

Weexpecttotalrelatedrevenue

Wiwynn,Accton,Kingslide,BizLink,Delta,

Wistron

LeastPreferred:

Giga-Byte

AIHardware

NvidiaGPUserverrackshipmentstogrowto75kin2026,from~29kin2025,outgrowingASICmarketsequentiallyandonaYoYbasis.Datacenter-isexpectedtobe>40%ofoverall2025revenueandatleast50%in2026.Theofferingsaremargin-accretiveattheoperatinglevel.

MostPreferred:

Substrates

Unimicron,NYPCB,SEMCO

ABFsubstratedemandhasbottomed,withAIGPU/Acceleratorsasthekeygrowthdrivergoingforward.BTsubstratehasbenefittedfromthememorysuper-cycleandrawmaterialpriceincreases,whichshoulddriveupwardrevisionstobothdemandvolumesandASPs.

MostPreferred:

SEMCO,Yageo,Murata

LeastPreferred:

MLCC

MLCCinventorylevelislean,andAIserverwillserveasakeydemanddriverin2026.

MostPreferred:

HonHai

LeastPreferred:

Applerecentlyaddedroughly60KN3PwafersatTMSC,implyingupto24MincrementaliPhoneprocessorsifallwereforA19production-anupsidethatwould

iPhoneSupplyChain

materiallyraiseourFY26iPhoneoutlook.ButwebelievepartoftheincreasewillsupportM5ultrachipsforApple'sPrivateCloudComputeaheadoftheSpring2026AppleIntelligence/Sirirelaunch.

MostPreferred:

AVC

LeastPreferred:

Sunonwealth

ThermalSolutions

WeareencouragedtoseerampingliquidcoolingcomponentshipmentsinNovemberandexpectthestrengthtocarryinto1Q26.However,thegrowthmagnitudeshowedadiversetrendfromourexpectations.

MostPreferred:

Xiaomi

LeastPreferred:

Ofilm

Weexpectthesmartphoneindustrytosufferfromcomponentcostincreasesin2026.Asaresult,smartphonemarginsarelikelytofacedownwardpressureinthe

ChinaSmartphone

comingquarters.ForOpticallenses,duetomemorycostincreases,specupgradeislikelytofaceBOMpressure.Weexpectmid-to-low-endproductstofaceheadwindswhilehigh-endproductswilllikelybebetterpositioned.

MostPreferred:

BOE

LeastPreferred:

Sanan

Display/TV

TVpanelpricesappeartobebottomingearlierthanexpected,improvingnear-termsentiment,butinvestorsshouldwatchforrisingmemorycoststhatmayputpressure

NBpanelpricing,aswellasthetimingandsustainabilityofanyTVpanelpriceincreasesandthefront-loadedshipmentprofileexpectedfor2026.

MostPreferred:

Lenovo

LeastPreferred:

PCOEMs/ODMsWeexpectPCOEMs/ODMstoseemarginheadwindsfrommemorypriceincreasesin2026,whichwilllikelyleadtomultiplequartersofmargincompression.

Acer

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

6

Valuationvs.ProfitabilityofGlobalTechnologySub-sectorsandSelectIndustryGroups

Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates

MorganStanleyResearch7

WhereAreWeintheCycle?

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

8

WhereAreWeintheCycle?

SOXIndexValuationvs.GlobalSemiconductorRevenueYoY%

TotalsemiY/YSOXIndexEV/Sales

9.0x

8.0x

7.0x

6.0x

5.0x

4.0x

3.0x

100%

78%

80%

65%64%

55%

60%

37%

40%

29%28%28%

24%25%

18%19%19%18%20%

23%

24%23%22%

18%

18%20%20%

12%14%

13%

12%

20%

10%

6%2%

7%5%6%

3%1%

0%

-3%-5%-6%-6%

-5%

-12%-13%

-3%-5%

-15%-17%

-21%

-16%

-20%

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26e

2Q26e

3Q26e

4Q26e

-40%2.0x

Source:SIA,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

MorganStanleyResearch9

SemiconductorSuperCyclevs.PreviousCycles

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

10

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

SOXIndexPerformanceinPastCycles

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Foundation

MorganStanleyResearch11

SequencingtheCycle-Firstin,FirstOut

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.

12

EarningsStrengthStilltheMainDriver

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

MSCIACAsiaIT:EarningsRevisionIndexperformanceYoY[RHS]

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

MorganStanleyResearch13

BullandBearCasesfor2026

Bullcase:

•Seeingtheproductivitybenefitbasedonrevenuesandnotentirelyonlowerratesofhiringorcost-cutting,starttoseeconcreteAIadoptionthatcompaniesarewillingtopayfor.

•TheAItechsectorhasbecomewhattechinvestorswouldeventuallydreamtheywouldbe-highlycapitalefficient,low-employmentbusinesseswithsignificantoperatingmargins.

Bearcase:

•AlittlebitofAIindigestion:Thereisoftenafirstroundofover-investmentandover-consumptionofsuchinnovationbecausepeoplegetexcitedaboutabarriertoentrybeinglowered.andthenasecondroundtendstobemorerational.

•Spendingwithoutknowingthedestination:Weareinvestingwithoutaclearlydefineddestination,raisingconcernsabout

whethertheeventualreturnswilljustifythespend.Inparallel,wearenearingapowerwall,andfundingconstraintsforsomeAIinitiativesmayfurtherreducethepaceofdeployment.

•Pricingpowervs.marginpressuretrade-offanddisplacementofmanycompaniesontheotherendofthespectrum,theconsumersofmemory.

14

SemiconductorRevenueRecoverstoHigherLevelsFollowingMajorDemandShocks

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch15

Memoryvs.LogicCycles-MemoryResurgence

450%

400%

350%

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

LogicMemoryASML

Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

16

TechValuationfromaHistoricalContext-NTMP/ETechnologyIndex

AsiaEuropeUSA

30

25

20

15

10

Jan-10

Jun-10

Nov-10

Apr-11

Sep-11

Feb-12

Jul-12

Dec-12

May-13

Oct-13

Mar-14

Aug-14

Jan-15

Jun-15

Nov-15

Apr-16

Sep-16

Feb-17

Jul-17

Dec-17

May-18

Oct-18

Mar-19

Aug-19

Jan-20

Jun-20

Nov-20

Apr-21

Sep-21

Feb-22

Jul-22

Dec-22

May-23

Oct-23

Mar-24

Aug-24

Jan-25

Jun-25

Nov-25

Source:Companydata,Gartner,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

MorganStanleyResearch17

AISemiconductorsForecasts–22-68%CAGR,2023-2030e

•Growthperspective:

1.EdgeAIsemis:22%CAGR,2023-30

2.InferenceAIsemis:68%CAGR,2023-30

3.CustomAIsemis:65%CAGR,2023-30

WithinCloudAI,InferenceAIchipstooutgrowtraining…

EdgeAIsemiscouldgrowslightlyfasterthancloud

TotalAIsemirevenuebreakdown:Cloudvs.Edge

US$mn

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

2021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e

CloudEdge

…andCustomAIchipstooutgrowgeneralpurpose

800,000

US$mn

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

US$mn

Cloudsemibreakdown:AITrainingvs.Inference

80%

20%

2021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eTrainingInference

Cloudsemibreakdown:GeneralAIvs.CustomAI

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

24%

76%

11%

89%

2021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e

General-purposeAI(GPU,FPGA,merchantAI)CustomAI

Source:Companydata,Gartner,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

18

AIvs.Non-AI-AMatterofEarningsGrowth

NTMEPSGrowthYoY

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26

Non-AIAI

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

NTMP/E

27x

26x

25x

24x

23x

22x

21x

20x

19x

18x

Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26

Non-AIAI

MorganStanleyResearch19

Memory-WhenWillItPeak?

20

MemoryCyclesAreSupply-driven“Rinse&Repeat”

3.2

2.7

2.2

1.7

1.2

0.7

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

4-years4-years4-years4-years

520%

420%

320%

220%

120%

20%

-80%

——NTMPB-DRAMDRAMContractYoY(RHS)

Source:FactSet,DRAMxChange,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch21

DRAMPricingYoYMovingHigherinto1H26

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

DRAMContractpriceYoYSKhynixNTMP/B

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Jan-24

Jul-24

Jan-25

Jul-25

Jan-26

Source:FactSet,DRAMxChange,MorganStanleyResearch.

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x

22

ContractandSpotPricing-UnprecedentedMismatch

US$

43.0

33.0

23.0

13.0

3.0

39.17

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

DDR516G(2Gx8)4800/5600

SpotContract

30.00

70

weeksDRAMsuppliersPCOEMsuMajormodulehousesaServeraSmartphone

60

50

40

30

20

10

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

0

Source:TrendForce,MorganStanleyResearch.

US$

SSD-512GB,PCIe4.0

512GB…512GB…

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

115

100

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

eksNANDsuppliersPCOEMsMajormodulehousesServerSmartphone

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

MorganStanleyResearch23

Capex-HigherandHigher

DRAMsupplierspreparetomeet25%+bit

WFEdrivenbyadvancedlogicandDRAMgrowthin2026-27(vs16%during2022-25)

200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

mmWFERevenue(Y/Y)

2020202120222023202420252026e2027e

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Source:Companydata,Trendforce,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

24

DRAMvs.ASMLSuggestsSignificantUpside

DRAMASMLMAXMINMid

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch25

MemoryPricingQuarterlyChanges

Source:TrendForce(E)estimates,MorganStanleyResearch.

26

HBMLogicBaseDieDiagram

Source:SemiWiki.

MorganStanleyResearch27

3,609

HBMTAM

Basecase

NVIDIAcalculation

2023

2024

2025

2026e

2027e

23-27eCAGR

GPGPUvolume(kunits)

1,474

6,359

7,700

5,706

40%

NVIDIAmarketshare(%)

90%

90%

88%

89%

80%

TotalGPUvolume(kunits)

1,638

4,010

7,226

8,652

7,133

44%

ASICcalculation

TotalASICvolume(kunits)

Y/Y%

2,556

5,298

107%

5,053

-5%

5,811

15%

6,683

15%

27%

HBMcalculation

HBMusageperGPGPU(GB)

80

143

208

288

422

52%

HBMusageperASIC(GB)

40

70

141

180

317

68%

HBMASPperGB(US$)

15

12

13

13

13

-3%

InventoryBuffer

20%

8%

8%

5%

TotalHBMUsage(mnGB)

233

1,132

2,395

3,821

5,386

119%

Y/Y%

385%

112%

60%

41%

TotalHBMmarket(US$bn)

3

13

31

51

72

113%

TotalHBMmarket(mnGb)

1,866

9,059

19,161

30,565

43,091

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.Note:EstimatesarecompiledusingourAsiasupply-chainchecks.

28

HBMSufficiencyEstimates