汇丰-AI瓶颈评估：数据中心设备供应商需求向好-Assessing AI bottlenecks：Data centre equipment suppliers on the up-20260325

▲HSBCGbanvetentRearch

25March2026

AssessingAIbottlenecks

Equities

Industrials

DatacentreequipmentsuppliersontheupGlobal

uWithhyperscalercapexupgradesfor2026,AItraderemainsonforsuppliers;MiddleEastdisruptionlookscontained

uWedivedeepintopowerandcoolingverticalsacrosskeysuppliersandassesstheshiftto800VDCarchitectures

uPreferintegratedsuppliersalongwithcables,generatorsandsubstationsegments;15stockswith9Buyideas;lift7TPs

Morecapex=acceleratingequipmentorders

InAssessingAIbottlenecks:Gaspowerequipmentrampinguptomeetdemand

(19November2025),wefocusedontheboomingAI-drivendemandfornaturalgasfiredpowergenerationequipment.Inthisreport,welookindetailatelectricalandcooling

equipmentverticalsindatacentres.Withcapexgrowthacceleratingin2026(seep7),

giventhecontinuedurgencyofinvestmentsintoAI,wepegthetotaladdressablemarketforcombinedpowerandcoolingequipmentin2026eatUSD156bn,upc67%y-o-y,

equatingto17-20%oftotalestimatedcapex(seep9).Forsupplychains,thissupportsbook:bill>>1in2026andcementsvisibilityondouble-digittoplinegrowththrough2030,despitebroaderquestionsaboutAIfundingandmonetisation.

Powerequipment–goinghighervoltage(800V)anddirectcurrent(DC)

Nvidiaisdrivingtheindustrytoredesigndatacentrearchitectureforhigherpower

densityandhighervoltages,whichshouldfavourthemediumvoltagespecialists.

WhilethefulltransitiontoDCmaytakeyears,themainsuppliersworkingwithNvidia(seep15)lookthemorelikelybeneficiariesofdesignchangesovertime.

Cooling–liquidgold

Asserverrackpowerneedsfornextgenchipsrisetowards1MW(vsc10kWcurrentindustryaverage),liquidcoolinghasbecomethefastest-growingsegment,drivingsectorM&Aandrepositioningaroundnewproducts(coolantdistributionunits,CDU:

p18).Anintegratedpowerandcoolingofferingcouldproveacompetitiveadvantage,thoughwenotepotentialforpricingpressure,particularlyfromChinesecompetitors.

15supplychainstockswith9Buys;raise7TPs;‘pureplay’VertivinitiatedatBuy

Wehighlight15suppliersofequipmenttodatacentres.Wefavourthevertically

integratedsuppliers,Eaton,SchneiderandVertiv(wherewehavejustinitiatedwithaBuyratingandUSD325TP),whichwebelievearebestplacedtocapturethegrowthopportunityandleadthechargein800VDCarchitecture.Wealsobelievethecablessuppliers(Corning,Nexans,Prysmian)canbenefitfromcombinedpoweranddatacabledemandgrowth.LongleadtimesforsubstationtransformerssupportapositivepricingenvironmentforSiemensEnergy.Lastly,backuppowerremainsakey

component,underpinningourpositiveviewonCATandWeichai.

ThisisourlatestreportontheDisruptiveTechnologytheme.Ifyouwanttosubscribetoanyofourninebigthemes,clickhere.

SeanMcLoughlin*

SeniorGlobalIndustrialsAnalyst

HSBCBankplc

sean.mcloughlin@

+442079913464

HelenFang*

HeadofIndustrialsResearch,AsiaPacific

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

helen.c.fang@.hk

+85229966942

DunWang*,CFA,CPA(Reg.No.S1700519060002)

Analyst,A-shareIndustrials&RenewablesResearch

HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimited

dun.wang@

+862150662027

StephenBersey

HeadofUSTechnologyResearch

HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.

stephen.bersey@

+12125254153

WesleyBrooks,CFA

SeniorAnalyst,IndustrialsandAutos

HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.

wesley.brooks@

+12125250337

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

HSBCGlobalInvestmentSummit

14to16April2026

Findoutmore

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplc

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

Equities●Industrials

https://www

HSBC

25March2026

Changestotargetprices

BloombergPricePriceMarketcapTargetprice_Upside/Rating

CompaniestickercurrencycurrentUSDmOldNewdownsideOldNew

ABB

ABBNSW

CHF

64.46

150,835

55.00

62.00

-3.8%

Hold

Hold

Caterpillar

CATUS

USD

680.88

316,805

850.00

850.00

24.8%

Buy

Buy

Corning

GLWUS

USD

124.58

107,016

135.00

146.00

17.2%

Buy

Buy

Eaton

ETNUS

USD

356.80

138,433

405.00

420.00

17.7%

Buy

Buy

Envicool

002837CH

RMB

105.00

14,774

106.00

106.00

1.0%

Hold

Hold

GEVernova

GEVUS

USD

851.07

229,388

740.00

740.00

-13.1%

Hold

Hold

JohnsonControls

JCIUS

USD

129.70

79,385

127.00

127.00

-2.1%

Hold

Hold

Nexans

NEXFP

EUR

112.60

5,699

140.00

140.00

24.3%

Buy

Buy

Prysmian

PRYIM

EUR

93.90

32,205

105.00

115.00

22.5%

Buy

Buy

SchneiderElectric

SUFP

EUR

237.15

158,366

275.00

285.00

20.2%

Buy

Buy

Siemens

SIEGR

EUR

203.75

184,364

235.00

240.00

17.8%

Hold

Hold

SiemensEnergy

ENRGR

EUR

140.75

140,241

180.00

190.00

35.0%

Buy

Buy

Trane

TTUS

USD

410.36

90,826

470.00

470.00

14.5%

Hold

Hold

Vertiv

VRTUS

USD

255.88

97,899

325.00

325.00

27.0%

Buy

Buy

WeichaiPower

2338HK

HKD

26.78

29,610

39.00

39.00

45.6%

Buy

Buy

WeichaiPowerA

000338CH

RMB

23.36

28,503

33.00

33.00

44.3%

Buy

Buy

Source:LSEGDatastream,HSBCestimates.Currentpricesasofclose20Mar2026

Valuationcomparison

Company

MktcapUSDm

Sharepricecurrency

Rating

Price

(local)

Target

price

Upside/downside

EV/Sales

EV/EBITDA

PE

FY26e

FY27e

DivyieldFY26e

Netdebt/

EBITDAFY26e

ROIC

FY26e

ROE

FY26e

FY26e

___

FY27e

FY26e

__

FY27e

ABB

150,835

CHF

Hold

64.46

62.00

-3.8%

4.2x

3.9x

20.3x

18.5x

26.9x

1.4%

-0.2x

26.0%

29.2%

CaterpillarInc

316,805

USD

Buy

680.88

850.00

24.8%

4.8x

4.3x

22.7x

19.2x

29.7x

24.3x

0.9%

2.2x

18.7%

49.8%

CorningIncorp

107,016

USD

Buy

124.58

146.00

17.2%

6.1x

4.9x

25.5x

19.3x

30.3x

0.9%

1.3x

12.1%

20.4%

Eaton

138,433

USD

Buy

356.80

420.00

17.7%

4.9x

4.4x

20.8x

18.2x

26.4x

23.5x

1.2%

1.3x

17.9%

22.4%

Envicool

14,774

RMB

Hold

105.00

106.00

1.0%

10.5x

7.1x

72.8x

45.3x

55.1x

0.4%

0.7x

23.7%

29.1%

GEVernova

229,388

USD

Hold

851.07

740.00

-13.1%

4.7x

4.2x

41.4x

27.5x

58.2x

41.1x

0.2%

-1.8x

-357.0%

31.2%

JohnsonControlsIntl

79,385

USD

Hold

129.70

127.00

-2.1%

3.5x

3.3x

19.4x

17.1x

23.7x

1.3%

1.9x

15.8%

22.6%

Nexans

5,699

EUR

Buy

112.60

140.00

24.3%

0.6x

0.6x

5.6x

4.8x

14.5x

12.3x

2.7%

-0.3x

19.9%

14.7%

Prysmian

32,205

EUR

Buy

93.90

115.00

22.5%

1.5x

1.3x

11.4x

10.0x

17.1x

1.0%

1.1x

15.3%

21.0%

SchneiderElectric

158,366

EUR

Buy

237.15

285.00

20.2%

3.3x

3.0x

15.0x

13.3x

22.9x

20.4x

1.9%

0.5x

14.6%

17.4%

SiemensAG

184,364

EUR

Hold

203.75

240.00

17.8%

2.4x

2.2x

14.5x

12.5x

17.0x

2.7%

2.8x

7.0%

12.6%

SiemensEnergyAG

140,241

EUR

Buy

140.75

190.00

35.0%

2.6x

2.2x

18.3x

14.4x

32.2x

25.0x

1.4%

-1.1x

61.8%

32.3%

TraneTechnologiesPlc

90,826

USD

Hold

410.36

470.00

14.5%

3.9x

3.6x

19.2x

17.0x

23.9x

1.0%

0.3x

29.5%

36.2%

Vertiv

97,899

USD

Buy

255.88

325.00

27.0%

7.0x

5.4x

28.6x

20.8x

40.1x

29.7x

0.1%

-0.3x

54.9%

49.0%

WeichaiPower

29,610

HKD

Buy

26.78

39.00

45.6%

0.4x

0.3x

2.8x

2.3x

12.4x

4.3%

-1.7x

57.7%

15.3%

WeichaiPowerA

29,606

RMB

Buy

23.36

33.00

41.3%

0.4x

0.3x

2.8x

2.3x

14.0x

12.3x

4.3%

-1.7x

57.7%

15.3x

MedianAverage

3.9x

3.6x

19.4x

17.1x

27.7x

23.9x

1.2%

0.5x

18.7%

22.6%

29.3x

40.2x

91.5x

27.7x

19.6x

20.1x

27.3x

14.1x

25March2026

3

Source:LSEGDatastream,HSBCestimates,pricesasatclose20Mar2026

工

Equities●Industrials

4

Thedatacentrepowerecosystemfromgridtocampus

25March2026

Source:HSBC.Note:HV/MV/LVdenoteshigh/medium/lowvoltage.UPS=UninterruptiblePowerSupply.PDU=PowerDistributionUnit.HVAC=heating,ventilationandairconditioning.

工

Equities●Industrials

Datacentresupplychainoverviewacrosspowerandcoolingequipmentverticals

Company

Powermanagement

Thermalmanagement

2025revenueexposuretodatacentre

Substation

Electricalyard

Electricalroom

Datahall

Rack

InnercircuitOutercircuit

HVpower

MVswitch

boards

Backup

power

generators

MV/LVtransformers

LVswitch

boards

UPS

Power/data

cables

Busway

PDUand

RPP

Server

Rack

Technology

Cooling

System

Heat

Rejection

System

Estimated%

oftotal

Implied

USDbn

SchneiderElectric

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c25%

12.0

Vertiv

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c80%

8.2

Caterpillar

✓

c12%

7.9*

Flex

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c25%

6.5

Eaton

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c25%**

6.0

Delta

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c20%

3.6

Wesco

✓

✓

c15%

3.5

Siemens

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c4%

3.4

ABB

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c9%

3.0

Legrand

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c26%

2.8

JCI

✓

✓

c10%

2.4

Trane

✓

✓

c10%

2.2

Corning

✓

c14%

2.1

SiemensEnergy

✓

c5%

2.0*

GEVernova

✓

c5%

2.0*

Mitsubishi

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c5%

1.9

Cummins

✓

c5%

1.7

Murata

✓

✓

✓

✓

c3%

1.4

Daikin

✓

✓

c4%

1.2

Prysmian

✓

c6%

1.2

Amphenol

✓

c5%

1.1

nVent

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

c25%

1.0

Modine

✓

✓

c22%

0.7

Munters

✓

✓

c40%

0.6

RollsRoyce

✓

c2%

0.6

Weichai

✓

c1%

0.3

Nexans

✓

c2%

0.2

5

Source:BNEF,HSBCestimates.Note:*includesgaspowerequipmentrevenues;**totalsalesexMobility

工

Equities●Industrials

25March2026

HSBC

Equities●Industrials

25March2026

Contents

Upwardsandupwards7

Furthercapexgrowthacceleration

in2026e7

Howmuchgrowthofdatacentre

installations?8

Capexanalysisofdatacentre

buildout9

Anoverviewofthesupplychain10

Revenueopportunityforkey

suppliers12

DataCentreWorldkeytakeaways,

4-5March202612

Power–fromgridtochip13

Powerfromgridtochip13

Themoveto800Vdirect

current(DC)14

Cooling–movingtoliquid16

Whydatacentrecoolingisa

fast-movingindustry16

Howcompaniesarepositioned18

Potentialthreatstoliquidcooling19

Companysection20

Valuationandrisks34

Disclosureappendix57

Disclaimer60

Equities●Industrials

https://www

HSBC

25March2026

7

Upwardsandupwards

uHyperscalery-o-ycapexgrowthisacceleratingin2026etoc90%astherushtoinvestinAIshownosignofslowing

uWelookattheípicksandshovels’winnerssupplyingpowerandcoolingequipment–aUSD156bnopportunityin2026e

uOurtakeawayfrommeetingsatarecentindustryeventunderlinesthestrongdemandbackdropandthepushinstandardisation

Furthercapexgrowthaccelerationin2026e

Weforecasta91%increaseinUScloudserviceprovider(CSP)capexdrivenbyAIin2026.

Capexis“constrained”byability,notdesiretoinvest.Wethinkcapexisbeingspentasfastasitcanandisnotlimitedbydesiretospendnorbalancesheets,butrathercapacitytogetprojectsofftheground.

Capexgrowthcontinuingtoaccelerate

y-o-yin2026eamongtopsixhyperscalers(USDbn)

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

20232024202520262027

TotalYoygrowth

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:Companydata,VisibleAlpha,HSBCestimates

2026capexforecastsamongtopsix

hyperscalersseeingsignificantrampsinceNovember(USDbn)

USD135bn

Nov-25Mar-26

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

Source:Companydata,HSBC

Thepaceofgrowthisbreakneck,with2026ecapexbythetop6hyperscalersalonerising

USD135bnsinceourlastpublishedforecastsinourNovember2025report.BeyondthetopUShyperscalercloudserviceproviders,AImodelbuilders,neocloudproviders,andsovereigncloudinitiativesareacceleratingtheirowndatacentredeployments.AFebruary2026reportfromdatacentremarketresearchfirmDell’Oropredictstotalglobalcapexin2026“toapproachUSD1trn”.

1

1“DataCenterITCapex5-YearForecastReport”,Dell’OroGroup,February2026

Howmuchgrowthofdatacentreinstallations?

Inourbasecase,weestimatetheglobaldatacentreworkloadrisingfrom95GWin2025to

205GWby2030,withannualadditionsacceleratingintheouteryears.Weassumethat55%ofthistotal(50GW)willbeaddedintheUS,wheredatacentrebuildoutismostconcentrated.

Cumulativeandannualcomputeadditions(GW)with2023-30eCAGRbysegment

36%

6%

202320242025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e

AIworkload

non-AIworkload

Annualadditions(RHS)

250

200

150

100

50

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source:IEA,Legrand,HSBCestimates

WeassumetheUSaccountsfor55%ofglobaldatacentreadditionsto2030e

45%

55%

US

ROW

Source:HSBCestimates

WhatofMiddleEastdisruption?

GeopoliticalinstabilityintheMiddleEasthasescalatedrapidlysince28February.Iranian

attacksonAmazondatacentresinBahrainandUAEon06Marchunderlinedthethreatthat

conflictsposetoAIinfrastructure,withdatacentreshighlightedinthepressas“anewfrontierinwarfare”(Guardian,07March).

2

Breakdownofdatacentrepowerconsumptionbyequipmenttype

Cooling,20%

ITequipment,71%

Powersystems,

6%

Other,2%

Source:BNEF,SemiAnalysis.Note:Assumingapowerusageeffectivenessof1.4

TWh

Powerconsumption(TWh)fromdatacentresrisingmostinUSandChina

1000

750

500

250

0

202020242030

UnitedStatesChinaEurope

Asiaexcl.ChinaRestofworld

Source:IEA,HSBC

2íItmeansmissiledefenceondatacentres’:dronestrikesraisedoubtsoverGulfasAIsuperpower,TheGuardian,07March

9

ThestrikeshavebeguntoraisedoubtsovertheprospectsoftheMiddleEastregion’spushondatacentres,ledbyUAEandSaudiArabia(seeGCCdatecentres:DigitalGoldRush,

05January).Duetoregionalinstability,companiesare,asofMarch2026,re-evaluatingsecurityforthesehigh-profile,energy-intensivefacilities.IfMiddleEastprojectsaredelayed,wewouldexpectdeveloperstodivertcapexelsewhere,leadingtoanoverallminorslowdowninglobal

spendingonAIinfrastructure,whichisconcentratedinUS,Asiaand,toalesserextent,Europe.

Capexanalysisofdatacentrebuildout

DatacentrecapexismeasuredintermsofcostperunitofITcomputeload(inW).WeuseacentralcapexassumptionofUSD50bn/GW(orUSD50m/MW),thoughthisvarieswidely

dependingonlocation,scaleandchiptype.

MostspendinggoesonchipsandotherITequipment.Energycapex(largelyongasturbinesorgasenginesintheUS)hasbeenrisingduetotheconstraintsinsupplyandlonggridpermit

leadtimes.Non-ITcapex,whichincludesthebuildingshellandfittingoutthebuildingwithallnecessaryequipment,makesup20-25%.

Breakdownofdatacentrecapex

Capextype

%oftotal

Description

ITcapex

65-75%

Servers,networking,memory,andstorage

Non-ITcapex

20-25%

Buildingshell,mechanicalandelectricalinstallations,includingcooling,transformersandUPS

Energycapex

4-12%

Newgenerationcapacity,batterystorage,andtransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure

Source:IEA,HSBC

WebelievecapexperMWhasbeenrisingoverthepast12monthsasaresultof:1)cost

inflation,particularlyinconstruction;2)pricehikesforthelatestchipsandhighermemorycosts;3)switchtoliquidcoolingoveraircooling;and4)greaterinvestmentneedsintheUSfor

separateonsitepowergeneration.

Basedonourglobalestimates,wepegthemid-pointofthetotaladdressablemarketforpowerandcoolingequipmentin2026eatUSD156bn(USD146-162bnrange),upsharplyfrom

USD93bnin2025.Wemodelabroadly70/30splitacrosspowerandcoolingverticalsin2026e,thoughliquidcoolingislikelytotipthisbalanceinfavourofcoolingoverthenext1-2years.

Vertivorderintake(USDm)Vertivbacklog(USDm)

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Q1-20

Q3-20

Q1-21

Q3-21

Q1-22

Q3-22

Q1-23

Q3-23

Q1-24

Q3-24

Q1-25

Q3-25

orders

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

Q1-20

Q3-20

Q1-21

Q3-21

Q1-22

Q3-22

Q1-23

Q3-23

Q1-24

Q3-24

Q1-25

Q3-25

backlog

Source:Companydata,HSBCSource:Companydata,HSBC

Thescaleofgrowthinthemarketisreflectedinthehighgrowththatsuppliersareseeingin

theirdatacentrebusinesses,arguablynonemorethanVertiv,whichsawa252%y-o-yincreaseinQ4orderintakeand>50%q-o-qbacklogbuildinQ4.Withprocurementdealsclearlygettingbigger,themainsuppliersarescalingquicklytokeepupwithdemand.

Metafibreprocurementdealhasdrivenare-ratingoffibresuppliers

AnotherexampleoflargeorderwinsforsuppliersisCorning’s‘uptoUSD6bn’fibreorder

announcedon26JanuarybyMetatosupplyfibreforMeta’sdatacentrebuildoutplans.Inourview,thedealunderlinestherisingscaleofhyperscalerprocurementneedsastheyinturn

scaleuptheirconstructionambitions.

Thedealhasdrivenasharpre-ratingofacohortofmainglobalfibresuppliers(seechartsbelow).

Fibresuppliercohorthasre-ratedsinceJanuaryintermsofEV/EBITDA...

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Mar-26

25

20

15

10

5

0

MedianEV/EBITDA

Source:LSEGDatastream.Note:CohortincludesCorning,Prysmian,Furukawa,Fujikura,SmarterEnergy,SterliteTechnologies,YOFC.

andintermsofPE

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Mar-26

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

MedianP/E

Source:LSEGDatastream.Note:CohortincludesCorning,Prysmian,Furukawa,Fujikura,SmarterEnergy,SterliteTechnologies,YOFC.

Anoverviewofthesupplychain

Whatisinadatacentrefacility?

uIThardware:Computingresourcesprovidetheprocessing,memory,localstorage,and

networkconnectivitythroughservers.Routers,switches,firewalls,storagesystems,serversandapplicationdeliverycontrollersstoreandmanagebusiness-criticaldataand

applications.Networkinfrastructureconnectsservers(bothphysicalandvirtual),datacentreservices,storageandexternalconnectivitytoend-userlocations.

uNon-IThardware:Datacentrefacilitiesrequiresignificantphysicalinfrastructuretosupportthecentre'shardwareandsoftware.Theseincludepowersubsystems,uninterruptible

powersupplies(UPS),ventilation,coolingsystems,firesuppression,backupgenerators,andconnectionstoexternalnetworks.

Wemapthekeynon-ITequipmentverticalsoverleaf:

Equities●Industrials

https://www

HSBC

25March2026

11

Schematicofadatacentre

8

2

4

7

6

1

3

58

2

1

Source:Vertiv,HSBC

Overviewofnon-ITproductcategoriesfordatacentres

#SegmentNotes

1

LVPowerDistribution

LVswitchgear,powerdistributionunits(PDUs)

2

MVPowerDistribution

MVswitchgearandcontrols,distributiontransformers

3

UninterruptiblePowerSystems

UPSproducts,dieselgenerators,batteries

4

ServerCabinetsandRacks

Servers,racks,storagedevices,cabling,lightingsystems

5

BackupPower

Dieselgenerators,gasturbines,powerinfrastructure

6

BuildingAutomation

Powermeasurement,dataconnectivity

7

SecuritySystems

Fireprotection,securityalarms,cybersecurityhardware

8

HVACSolutions

Coolingunits,componentsforcontrolpanels

Note:LV=lowvoltage;MV=mediumvoltage.

Source:HSBC

Equities●Industrials

https://www

HSBC

25March2026

Revenueopportunityforkeysuppliers

Inthetablebelow,wecollatewhereavailabletheaddressablerevenueopportunityforthemainsuppliersintermsofUSDmperMWofcomputeforAIdatacentres.

Thetop3suppliershavethehighestopportunityperMWthankstothebreadthofintegratedpowerandcoolingequipmentportfolios.

Revenueopportunitybysupplierperunitofdatacentreloadcapacity

Company

USDm/MW

Vertiv

2.8-3.5

Schneider

1.2-3.3

Eaton

1.4-2.9

ABB

2.0

nVent

1.0

Source:Companydata

DataCentreWorldkeytakeaways,4-5March2026

On4-5March,wemetwithsupplychainplayersinLondonatDataCentreWorld,theUK’slargestdatacentretradefair.Wepresentourkeyfindingsbelow.

1.Demandappearsverystrongandthemoodwasoptimistic:largesupplychainplayerswerealmostallpresentandkeentobeseeninaneventthatismuchlargery-o-y

2.Speedtomarketisstillkeyforcustomers.Thisislimitingtake-upforvaluechaincollaborationsascustomerscurrentlyshowlittleappetitetoexperimentintherushtobuild

3.Standardisationisincreasinginimportanceascustomerslooktocutcomplexityandtimetobuild

4.Fibreandheatexchangerslooklikesupplychainhotspots.Fibreduetomarket

concentrationandcurrenttightnessofsupply.HeatexchangersduetothefocusonCDUs(coolantdistributionunits)

5.Highdemandfor‘campus’cables,mostlylow/mediumvoltage(LV/MV)andsoldtoEPCs,thoughthemoveto800VcouldloweroverallLVcontent

6.Liquidcooling–thebighigh-growthindustrytrendwithrackpowercurrentlyat150kWandrisingto250kW.Thisisdrivingmanynewentrantsandmorecompetition,withlotsofnewCDUsuppliersandnewtechnologyproviders.Notanissue(fornowatleast)

7.800VDC(directcurrent)isintheconversationandischanginghowcustomersthinkaboutdatacentredesign,butfeelsliketomorrow’sthreat,withcurrentstrongdemandtaking

centrestage.Key800Vinnovations(likesolidstatetransformers)arenotyetcommerciallyavailableandwenoteconcernsaroundsafety.2030looksarealistictimeframefor

implementationofcomplete800VDCdatacentres

8.ProcurementintheUSandEUisdonedifferently.USprocurementismoreefficientandintegrated,withmorepermittingissuesevidentintheEU,butfewergridconstraints.

13

Power–fromgridtochip

uComplexflowfromhigh-voltageelectricgridrightdowntomicro-voltageatthechiplevelfavoursend-to-endpowersuppliers

uMorebatteryinputshouldhelpalleviatepowerfluctuations;longleadtimesforsubstationsaredrivingonsitepowergeneration

uNVIDIA’spushto800VDCcoulddeterminesupplychainwinnersandlosersinthemediumterm

Powerfromgridtochip

Risingsizeandpowerdensityofdatacentresisdrivinghighgrowthforpowerequipment

providers.Powermanagementisnotsimpleandinvolvesscalingdownfromthetransmissionlevel(100+kV)throughmediumvoltage(10-50kV)downtolowvoltage(<1kV)atthecampusleveldownto<1Vatthechip.

Datacentrepowerdistributionisthusdominatedbyglobalelectricalpowerequipment

producersthatareexperiencedatservingelectricutilityandindustrialcustomerswithpowersolutions.These‘end-to-end’powerproviderssupplyanumberofpowercomponentsacrossdifferentvoltagestohelpfitoutthepowermanagementneedsofadatacentre.

Breakdownofelectricalequipmentcosts(andleadtimeswhereavailable)insideadatacentre

Component

USD/W

%oftotal

Leadtimes

Substation*

0.1

3%

3-5years

Backupgenerator

1.2

36%

Automatictransferswitch

0.0

1%

MV/LVtransformer

0.1

4%

6-17months

MVswitchgear

0.1

3%

3-4months

UPS

0.5

17%

2-3months

LVswitchboard

0.1

2%

Powerdistributionunit

0.4

12%

Remotepowerpanel

0.1

2%

Rackpowerdistributionunit

0.1

2%

Totalequipment

2.7

83%

Installation

0.6

17%

Total

3.2

100%

Source:BNEF,HSBC.Note:basedon50MWdatacentrewith30kWrackdensity,requiringnewsubstation.*USD/WreferstosubstationpowercapacityratherthanITcomputecapacity

Bottleneckslargelyinthehighvoltagesegments

Gridequipmentleadtimesarerisingwithsomeshortagesinmediumvoltageequipment,butthekeybottleneckisinhighvoltagesubstations,whereleadtimesare3-5years.Thisshortage,

alongwithlongwaittimesforgridconnection,hasdriventheriseoftheBYOP(bringyourownpower)modelofonsitepowergeneration.SeeAssessingAIbottlenecks:Gaspowerequipmentrampinguptomeetdemand(19November),foranin-depthtakeonBYOPandonsitepower

generationindatacentres.

RackdensityrequirementoftheNvidiaroadmap(kWperrack)

NVIDIA

Feynman

NVIDIARubin

NVIDIAGB300

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2016-232024202520272028

Industryavg.

NVIDIAGB200

Source:BNEF,UptimeInstitute,Nvidia.Note:Redisexistingtechnology,greyistechnologyunderdevelopment

Newchipsimprovepowerusageefficiency(PUE)acrossthedatacentrefleet

AnnualAveragePUE

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1historical

1.0

2014201620182020

estimate

2022202420262028

Note:PUEistheratiobetweenpowerconsumptionandcomputecapacityinadatacentre,with1.0xthetheoreticallymostefficientfigure.

Source:USDOE(2024),HSBC

Themoveto800Vdirectcurrent(DC)

NVIDIAispushingaheadwithitsvisionofAIfactories.NVIDIAissuedacallforcollaborationon13Octobertodevelopnewdatacentrearchitecturesbasedon800Vdirectcurrent(DC).

Amongtheadvantagesof800VDCNVIDIAcites:1)betterpowerefficiency,essentialto

accommodatethenextgenerationofpower-hungrychips;2)reducedcopper,withfewer

conductorsandsmallerconnectorsneeded;3)lessACtoDCconversionsteps,reducingoverallpowerlosses;4)simplifiedarchitecture,withfewercomponents.

Thelong-termshiftto800VDCarchitectureindatacentres

400VAC

TransfrmerUPs

20KVAC

BatteryGeneratorracK

800DCeentua

goa

sidstate

transfrmer

20KVAC

BatteryenergystorageSystem(BESS)

powerShef

400VAC

50VAC12VAC

DC

supercapacitr

800VDC

0.8VDC

RankDC.DCConertor

Pwer

Distributin

Unit

Source:BNEF

0.8VDC

DC

Themainequipmenttransitionto800VDC