税后二永新老券定价有何差异？-二永观察系列之一

正文目录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u征增税不机的综影响 4税二新券价察 6新老券观察样本筛选 6发行定价观察 7流通定价观察 8税新券么？ 10风提示 10图表目录图表1:值新前不同型构合收变化 4图表2:2025.08.08后级资债行还况 5图表3:2025.08.08后续债行还况 5图表4:2025.08.08后行二资债税变对不机收影变一览 5图表5:2025.08.08后行永债税变对同机收影变一览 6图表6:合件对二级本及续样券 7图表7:比级本及永债行差年） 8图表8:比级本在市调及场行期新券差比，BP） 8图表9:25农二资债03A(BC)&25行资债02A(BC)收利对比 9图表10:25行级债03BC&25行级本债02A(BC)益差比 9图表11:可永债场调及场行期老券差比，BP） 9图表12:25行续债02BC&25中永债01BC收利对比 10图表13:25行续债02BC&25行续债01BC收益差比 1021。近征收增值税对不同机构的综合影响202581202588（）（202588）363.26、2.45、4.75。1机构类型券种增值税所得税新规前综合税收新规后综合税收新规前后税收变化利息收入资本利得利息收入资本利得公募基金国债、地方债0→3%0%0%0%0.00%3.26%3.26%金融债（含政金债）0→3%0%0%0%0.00%3.26%3.26%同业存单0%0%0%0%0.00%0.00%0.00%信用债3%0%0%0%3.26%3.26%0.00%道债3%0%0%3.26%3.26%0.00%资管产品地方债0→3%0%25%0.00%3.26%3.26%金融债（含政金债）0→3%3%25%25%25.00%27.45%2.45%同业存单0%3%25%25%25.00%25.00%0.00%信用债3%3%25%25%27.45%27.45%0.00%铁道债3%3%12.5%25%15.35%15.35%0.00%自营国债、地方债0→6%6%0%25%0.00%6.34%6.34%金融债（含政金债）0→6%6%25%25%25.00%29.75%4.75%同业存单0%6%25%25%25.00%25.00%0.00%信用债6%6%25%25%29.75%29.75%0.00%铁道债6%6%12.5%25%18.05%18.05%0.00%政部、国家税务总注：综合税收同时包括了增值税及其附加税、所得税二永债发行具有明显的季节性，新规后，二级资本债发行合计3773.10亿元，32.503359.00271.0020266.56-11.89BP图表2:2025.08.08二资发行还况 图表3:2025.08.08永债偿还况1,5001,0005000-500-1,000-1,500-2,000-3,000

总发行量(亿元) 总偿还量(亿元净融资额(亿元,右轴)

2,0001,5001,0005000-500-1,000-1,500-2,000

1,5001,0005000-500-1,000-1,500

总发行量(亿元) 总偿还量(亿元净融资额(亿元,右轴)

20820922082092102112122026-012026-02025-025-025-025100-200-300图表4:2025.08.08

公募-征税对资管-征税对自营-征税对银行类型

发行人

债券简称

债券代码

主体评级隐含评级发行日期发行总额发行期限剩余期限行权期限当期票面利收益的影响

收益的影响

收益的影响国有大行股份制城商行农商行

中国银行中国农业银行中国建设银行浦发银行恒丰银行广发银行珠海华润银行长沙银行威海银行唐山银行苏州银行绍兴银行秦皇岛银行泸州银行江苏长江商业银行嘉兴银行徽商银行湖南银行福建海峡银行稠州银行紫金农商银行绍兴恒信农商银行衢江农商行青田农商银行秦农农商银行普陀农村商业银行

25中行二级资本债02BC25中行二级资本债03A(BC)25中行二级资本债03B(BC)25农行二级资本债03A(BC)25农行二级资本债03B(BC)25农行二级资本债04A(BC)25农行二级资本债04B(BC)25建行二级资本债03BC25浦发银行二级资本债01A25浦发银行二级资本债01B25恒丰银行二级资本债0125广发银行二级资本债01BC25华润银行二级资本债0225长沙银行二级资本债0125威海银行二级资本债0125唐山银行二级资本债0125苏州银行二级资本债0125绍兴银行二级资本债0125秦皇岛银行二级资本债0125泸州银行二级资本债0125江苏长江商行二级资本债0125嘉兴银行二级资本债0125徽商银行二级资本债0125湖南银行二级资本债0125海峡银行二级资本债0125稠州商行二级资本债0225紫金农商行二级资本债0125恒信农商行二级资本债0125衢江农商行二级资本债0125青田农商行二级资本债0125秦农农商银行二级资本债0125普陀农商行二级资本债01

232580050.IB232580067.IB232580068.IB232580035.IB232580036.IB232580046.IB232580047.IB232580054.IB232580044.IB232580045.IB232580041.IB232580056.IB232580042.IB232580051.IB232580039.IB232580034.IB232580038.IB232580066.IB232580037.IB232580033.IB232580059.IB232580052.IB232580055.IB232580040.IB232580043.IB232580031.IB232580071.IB232580069.IB232580049.IB232580063.IB232580062.IB232580048.IB

2025-11-242025-12-222025-12-222025-09-172025-09-172025-11-182025-11-182025-12-042025-11-172025-11-172025-11-062025-12-112025-11-072025-11-272025-10-232025-11-202025-10-162025-12-182025-09-292025-09-262025-12-122025-11-272025-12-052025-10-272025-11-132025-08-122025-12-252025-12-152025-12-252025-12-242025-11-202025-12-162025-12-162025-11-21

(亿)600.00480.0020.00350.00250.00320.0030.00400.00165.0035.00120.00350.0030.0080.0020.0025.0045.0025.0012.0018.006.009.00100.0030.0020.0015.0020.005.0010.002.002.004.6040.001.00

(年)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)15(10+5)10(5+5)15(10+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)15(10+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)

(年)4.7534+54.8301+54.8301+54.5671+59.5671+54.7370+59.7370+54.7863+54.7342+59.7342+54.7096+54.8055+54.7123+54.7671+54.6712+54.7479+54.6521+54.8247+54.5973+54.5945+54.8082+54.7671+54.7890+54.6767+54.7288+54.4685+54.8438+54.8110+54.8438+54.8356+54.7479+54.8137+54.8137+54.7507+5

(年4.754.834.834.579.574.749.744.794.739.734.714.814.714.774.674.754.654.824.604.594.814.774.794.684.734.474.844.814.844.844.754.814.814.75

率2.162.222.252.182.502.142.402.242.172.402.352.252.352.362.602.552.452.682.902.953.602.482.382.402.602.652.703.302.533.502.953.002.502.99

变动(BP)7.057.247.347.118.166.987.837.317.087.837.677.347.677.708.488.327.998.749.469.6211.748.097.767.838.488.648.8110.778.2511.429.629.798.169.75

变动(BP)5.285.435.505.336.125.245.875.485.315.875.755.505.755.776.366.245.996.567.107.228.816.075.825.876.366.486.618.076.198.567.227.346.127.32

变动(BP)10.2710.5610.7010.3711.8910.1811.4110.6510.3211.4111.1710.7011.1711.2212.3612.1211.6512.7413.7914.0317.1211.7911.3211.4112.3612.6012.8415.6912.0316.6414.0314.2611.8914.22莲都农商银行

25丽水莲都农商行二级资本债01232580058.IB

2025-12-11

4.00

10(5+5)

4.8055+5

4.81

3.25

10.60

7.95

15.45江苏启东农商银行建德农商银行简阳农商银行惠州农商银行湖南湘阴农商岱山农商银行成都农商银行

25启东农商行二级资本债0125建德农商行二级资本债0125简阳农商行二级资本债0125惠州农商行二级资本债0125湘阴农商行二级资本债0125岱山农商行二级资本债券0125成都农商行二级资本债01

232580074.IB232580057.IB232580072.IB232580061.IB232580065.IB232580064.IB232580053.IB

AA

2025-12-292025-12-112025-12-252025-12-162025-12-222025-12-242025-12-01

3.002.001.5010.001.002.0050.00

10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)10(5+5)

4.8466+54.7973+54.8438+54.8137+54.8301+54.8356+54.7726+5

4.854.804.844.814.834.844.77

2.843.003.502.884.20

9.269.7911.429.3913.70

6.957.348.567.0510.28

13.5014.2616.6413.6919.97图表5:2025.08.08后发行永续债及税收变动对不同机构收益影响变动一览银行类型发行人债券简称债券代码主体评级债项评级发行日期发行总额(亿)发行期限(年)剩余期限(年)行权期限(年)当期票面利率(%)公募-征税对收益的影响变动(BP)资管-征税对收益的影响变动(BP)自营-征税对收益的影响变动(BP)国有大行中国工商银行25工行永续债02BC242580047.IBAAAAAA-2025-11-06400.00(5+N)4.7096+N4.712.217.215.4110.51中国农业银行25农行永续债02BC242580045.IBAAAAAA-2025-10-28400.00(5+N)4.6795+N4.682.277.415.5510.79中国银行25中行永续债02BC242580035.IBAAAAAA-2025-08-22400.00(5+N)4.5014+N4.502.167.055.2810.27股份制渤海银行25渤海银行永续债01242580053.IBAAAAA2025-11-18100.00(5+N)4.7370+N4.742.377.735.8011.27光大银行25光大银行永续债01242580041.IBAAAAA+2025-09-16400.00(5+N)4.5644+N4.562.297.475.6010.89华夏银行25华夏银行永续债01242580060.IBAAAAA+2025-11-28200.00(5+N)4.7699+N4.772.327.575.6811.03平安银行25平安银行永续债02BC242580054.IBAAAAA+2025-11-19300.00(5+N)4.7397+N4.742.327.575.6811.03兴业银行25兴业银行永续债02BC242580038.IBAAAAA+2025-09-09200.00(5+N)4.5452+N4.552.247.315.4810.65城商行成都银行25成都银行永续债01242580034.IBAAAAA2025-08-19110.00(5+N)4.4877+N4.492.287.445.5810.84东营银行25东营银行永续债01242580033.IBAA+AA-2025-08-1533.00(5+N)4.4822+N4.482.809.136.8513.31赣州银行25赣州银行永续债01242580046.IBAA+AA-2025-10-2830.00(5+N)4.6795+N4.683.039.887.4114.41杭州银行25杭州银行永续债02242580057.IBAAAAA+2025-11-25100.00(5+N)4.7562+N4.762.327.575.6811.03河北银行25河北银行永续债02242580067.IBAAAAA2025-12-2920.00(5+N)4.8466+N4.852.457.995.9911.65湖州银行25湖州银行永续债01242580052.IBAA+AA-2025-11-1312.00(5+N)4.7288+N4.732.668.686.5112.65济宁银行25济宁银行永续债01242580040.IBAA+AA-2025-09-2930.00(5+N)4.5973+N4.602.708.816.6112.84九江银行25九江银行永续债01242580062.IBAAAAA-2025-12-0358.00(5+N)4.7781+N4.782.809.136.8513.31九江银行25九江银行永续债02242580066.IBAAAAA-2025-12-2312.00(5+N)4.8329+N4.832.859.306.9713.55莱商银行25莱商银行永续债01242580036.IBAAAA-2025-08-2520.00(5+N)4.5041+N4.502.859.306.9713.55绵阳市商业银行25绵阳商行永续债01242580058.IBAA+AA-2025-12-1120.00(5+N)4.8055+N4.812.708.816.6112.84宁波通商银行25通商银行永续债01242580032.IBAA+AA-2025-08-135.00(5+N)4.4712+N4.472.608.486.3612.36宁波银行25宁波银行永续债01242580042.IBAAAAA+2025-09-12100.00(5+N)4.5589+N4.562.307.505.6310.94青岛银行25青岛银行永续债01242580039.IBAAAAA2025-10-2420.00(5+N)4.6740+N4.672.457.995.9911.65泉州银行25泉州银行永续债01242580055.IBAA+AA-2025-11-1910.00(5+N)4.7397+N4.742.608.486.3612.36日照银行25日照银行永续债01242580037.IBAAAAA-2025-08-2630.00(5+N)4.5068+N4.512.407.835.8711.41厦门银行25厦门银行永续债01242580049.IBAAAAA2025-11-1319.00(5+N)4.7288+N4.732.327.575.6811.03上海银行25上海银行永续债01242580063.IBAAAAA+2025-12-09100.00(5+N)4.7945+N4.792.427.895.9211.51苏州银行25苏州银行永续债01242580050.IBAAAAA2025-11-1420.00(5+N)4.7315+N4.732.367.705.7711.22泰安银行25泰安银行永续债01242580031.IBAAAA-2025-08-1820.00(5+N)4.4849+N4.482.909.467.1013.79潍坊银行25潍坊银行永续债02242580043.IBAA+AA-2025-10-1615.00(5+N)4.6521+N4.652.909.467.1013.79邢台银行25邢台银行永续债01242580051.IBAA+AA-2025-11-1215.00(5+N)4.7205+N4.723.009.797.3414.26长沙银行25长沙银行永续债01242580048.IBAAAAA2025-11-1140.00(5+N)4.7178+N4.722.347.635.7311.13农商行杭州联合银行25杭州联合农商永续债01242580056.IBAAAAA2025-11-2020.00(5+N)4.7479+N4.752.337.605.7011.08江南农村商业银行25江苏江南农商行永续债01242580061.IBAAAAA2025-12-0420.00(5+N)4.7863+N4.792.488.096.0711.79秦农农商银行25秦农农商银行永续债02242580065.IBAA+AA-2025-12-1520.00(5+N)4.8110+N4.812.608.486.3612.36青农商行25青岛农商行永续债01242580044.IBAAAAA2025-09-2650.00(5+N)4.5945+N4.592.548.296.2112.08直销银行中信百信银行25中信百信银行永续债01242580059.IBAAAAA-2025-11-2710.00(5+N)4.7671+N4.772.658.646.4812.60税后二永新老券定价观察新老券观察样本筛选(1（）25.0808205.0.08（3）0.5125620202021二级资本债发行人新券二级资本债发行人新券相似老券新券-老券剩余期限债券简称债券发行日发行额度行权剩余期限实际剩余期限票面利率隐含评级债券简称债券发行日发行额度行权剩余期限实际剩余期限票面利率隐含评级农业银行25农行二级资本债04A(BC)2025-11-18320.004.744.7370+52.14AAA-25农行二级资本债02A(BC)2025-07-22400.004.414.4110+51.92AAA-0.3325农行二级资本债04B(BC)2025-11-1830.009.749.7370+52.40AAA-25农行二级资本债02B(BC)2025-07-22200.009.419.4110+52.12AAA-0.3325农行二级资本债03A(BC)2025-09-17350.004.574.5671+52.18AAA-25农行二级资本债02A(BC)2025-07-22400.004.414.4110+51.92AAA-0.1625农行二级资本债03B(BC)2025-09-17250.009.579.5671+52.50AAA-25农行二级资本债02B(BC)2025-07-22200.009.419.4110+52.12AAA-0.16中国银行25中行二级资本债02BC2025-11-24600.004.754.7534+52.16AAA-20中国银行二级022020-09-17150.004.574.5726+54.47AAA-0.1825中行二级资本债03A(BC)2025-12-22480.004.834.8301+52.22AAA-21中国银行二级022021-03-17100.005.065.0630+54.38AAA-0.2325中行二级资本债03B(BC)2025-12-2220.004.834.8301+52.25AAA-21中国银行二级022021-03-17100.005.065.0630+54.38AAA-0.23建设银行25建行二级资本债03BC2025-12-04400.004.794.7863+52.24AAA-25建行二级资本债02A(BC)2025-07-23400.004.414.4137+51.94AAA-0.37浦发银行25浦发银行二级资本债01A2025-11-17165.004.734.7342+52.17AA+20浦发银行二级042020-09-15100.004.564.5616+54.52AA+0.17广发银行25广发银行二级资本债01BC2025-12-11350.004.814.8055+52.25AA+20广发银行二级022020-10-3035.004.694.6904+54.51AA+0.12珠海华润银行25华润银行二级资本债022025-11-0730.004.714.7123+52.35AA+25华润银行二级资本债012025-07-1030.004.384.3836+52.10AA+0.33浙江稠州银行25稠州商行二级资本债022025-08-1215.004.474.4685+52.65AA-25稠州商行二级资本债012025-06-2525.004.344.3370+52.55AA+0.13永续债发行人新券相似老券新券-老券剩余期限债券简称债券发行日发行额度行权剩余期限实际剩余期限票面利率隐含评级债券简称债券发行日发行额度行权剩余期限实际剩余期限票面利率隐含评级工商银行25工行永续债02BC2025-11-06400.004.714.7096+N2.21AAA-25工行永续债01BC2025-05-09400.004.214.2137+N1.97AAA-0.50农业银行25农行永续债02BC2025-10-28400.004.684.6795+N2.27AAA-25农行永续债01BC2025-05-27500.004.264.2575+N2.00AAA-0.42中国银行25中行永续债02BC2025-08-22400.004.504.5014+N2.16AAA-25中行永续债01BC2025-07-22300.004.414.4110+N1.97AAA-0.09兴业银行25兴业银行永续债02BC2025-09-09200.004.554.5452+N2.24AA+25兴业银行永续债01BC2025-04-22300.004.164.1616+N2.09AA+0.38潍坊银行25潍坊银行永续债022025-10-1615.004.654.6521+N2.90AA-25潍坊银行永续债012025-08-0615.004.454.4521+N2.80AA-0.20注：剩余期限之差采用绝对值，下同发行定价观察202020212501BC、25022503B40BP2502BC2501BC流通定价观察流通定价视角，区分市场调整时期和市场下行时期，我们分别选择2025年123120262242025123120262242503A(BC)、2503B(BC25022BP2504B(B