花旗-全球化工裂解：中东供应中断推高亚洲价差-Global Chemicals Cracker：Middle East disruption pushes Asian spreads higher-20260327

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27Mar202601:00:00ET│35pages

GlobalChemicalsCracker

MiddleEastdisruptionpushesAsianspreadshigher

CITI'STAKE

TheclosureoftheStraitofHormuzhastightenedAsiasupply,drivingmajorspreadexpansioninMarch.Europeanmarginsfellgivencontracttiming.AprilwillshowwhetherAsiantightnessalsoboostsEurope,asthedatashowsthattheindustrialrecoverygainsmomentum.BiggestspreadmoverswereBD,AA,PC,C2andTDIinAsia,withBASF’sweightedspreadrisingsharplyandEvonikbenefittingfromaspikeinmethionine&BDprices.

Hormuzshock:Asiatightens—TheclosureoftheStraitofHormuzhasalreadytriggered>35forcemajeuresacrossAsiaduetoacutesupplyshortages.ThisdisruptionhasledtoasignificantwideningofspreadsinMarch.Notethatwedonotincorporatetheimpactofhigherenergyprices.Asaresultofthelatter,productmarginsinEuropedeclined,whichisunsurprisinggiventhatmostcontractswerenegotiatedbeforetheoutbreakoftheconflict.AprilpricingwillbecriticalindeterminingwhetherAsiantightnesswillalsotranslateintoimprovednetpricinginEurope.Giventhesupportivemarketdynamicsforcommoditychemicals,wehaveupgradedDowandLyondelltoBuyandalsoconsiderEvonikandBASFaspotentialbeneficiariesofthesituation.ThekeyquestionnowiswhethertheStraitwillreopenquicklyenoughtopreventtheemergingindustrialrecoveryfrombeingchokedoff.MacroData:Supportivemanufacturingindicators—S&PFlashPMI(Manufacturing)forUSincreasedto52.4inMarchwhileEurozonewasupat51.4,a45-monthhigh.Citi’sglobaleconomicsurpriseindex,however,isslightlydown,despiteAsiacurrentlyathistorichighs.Ontheotherhand,consumerconfidencewasmixedacrossregions.SentimentintheGermanchemicalindustry(ZEW)fellsharplyinMarch,downto-30,duetotheMiddleEasttensions,reversingtheexpansionoftheprevious4months.S&Pmadeslightrevisionstoitsgloballightvehicleproductionestimatesfor2026trimmingitto-1%YoY(-0.2%lastmonth)andcontinuestoexpect1Q26tobec.-4%YoY.UShousingstartswerefurtherupinJanuary(3rdconsecutiverise)drivenbymulti-familyprojects.

MarginTracker:Asialeadingtheway—Theavgspreadwasup10%MoMinMarchdrivenbyAsiawhichwasup~58%whileEurope/USweredown1-2%.Asianacrylicswasc.166%onMarchspotwhereastheEUspreadwasup12%(relevantforAKE/BASF/DOW).BASF’savgweightedspreadwasup>20%MoM,indicatingpositivenetpricingof~€800minthetwoupstreamsegments,accordingtooutmodel.Citi’srawmatstrackerforFlavours&Fragranceswasupmateriallyc.21%MoMinMarch(-veforDSM/GIVN/IFF/SY1).VitaminsA/Ewereupc.3%/27%respectivelyinMarchMoM.Methioninewasupc.33%(+veEVK).Commoditysilicones/DMCpricescontinuetoseeincreasesfollowingChinasupplymeasuresimplementedinNovember(DOW/ELK/WCH).SodaashmarginswereupinEuropeonlowercosts(+veforSOLB),whilebrominepricesalsoremainonanupwardtrajectory(+veforLXS/ICL/ALB).

TopPicks—WithinDiversifieds,inEurope,wearepositiveonBASF,AKE,EVK.IntheUSwelikeCE,DowandLYB,aswellasLGCheminAsia.

SebastianSatz,CFAAC

+44-203-569-3662

sebastian.satz@

RanulfOrr,CFA

+44-20-7986-3922

ranulf.orr@

OmiPallavi

+44-20-7508-1367

omi.pallavi@

PatrickCunningham

+1-212-816-6684

patrick.cunningham@

OscarYee

+852-2501-2473

oscar.yee@

SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations.

NotfordistributioninthePeople'sRepublicofChina,excludingtheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegionandQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestors.

2

GlobalChemicalsCracker

27March2026CitiResearch

KeyMovementsinMarch

Best&Worstperformers&RegionalMoMmarginmovement

Figure1.TopandBottomMarginperformancesinMarch

BD-NaphthaMarginAsia$/tTDIMarginAsia$/t

AAMarginAsia$/t

PCMarginAsia$/t EthyleneMarginAsia$/t Nylon6,6MarginUS$/tCaprolactamMarginUS$/t

Nylon6MarginUS$/t HDPEMarginAsia$/t(rhs)CaprolactamMarginEurope€/t

-600-400-200020040060080010001200

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.

Top5

-335

-367

-378

-391

-397

985

829

732

691

670

Bottom5

Source:CitiResearch,ICIS,IHSGlobalInsight,DataStream,Bloomberg,*Feb'26

+550

-34

-12

Feb-26Mar-26

Figure2.Regionalperformance

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Europe-MedianSpread(€/t)US-MedianSpread($/t)

Asia-MedianSpread($/t)

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,ICIS,IHSGlobalInsight,DataStream,Bloomberg

GlobalChemicalsCracker

27March2026CitiResearch

3

CompanyDevelopments

CitiView:Whatdoesitmeanforkeynames?

Europe

nArkema:OurmargintrackerindicatedthatEuropeanAA(Acrylicacid)margins

wereupc.12%MoMinMarch(+17%YoY)onhigherpriceswhileChinamargins

wereupsignificantlyinMarchc.166%onhigherspotpricesamidtheMiddleEasttensions.Europeanspotpriceswereupalsoc.4%MoMinMaronthebackof

this.PVDFpricescontinuetobestableinMarch.Arkemacontinuestobeoneofour

preferrednames

inthepeergroup.For1Q26,thegroupexpectsEBITDAtobedownYoYonweakmacro(including€25mfcheadwind)withfullyearEBITDA

expectationsstill2H-weighted.Managementbelievesit’sstilltooearlytogaugethefullimpactoftheMiddleEastconflict,buttheynotethatinput_costinflationremainsprimarilyanAsia-drivenissue.

nBASF:BASF’sweightedaveragespreadforChemicalsandMaterialswasup

~20%MoMinMarchdrivenbymostoftheAsianchains.Thecurrentlevelis

c.29%abovetheaverageofQ4and22%abovethefull-year2025.InEuropeandtheUStheywereslightlydown,bearinginmindthatthespreadsdonotcapturethehighercostofenergy.Accordingly,wewouldreadthesefiguresdirectionallyratherthanatfacevalue.Theydosuggest,though,thatfollowingasmall

negativenetpricingin1Q,pricesshouldinflectpositivelyfrom2Qonwards,

implyingoverall€1.1bnnetpricingforFY26forthetwoupstreamsegments,pre-highergascosts,whichcouldbea~€300mheadwind,accordingtoourmodel.Wehaveraisedourfull-yearEBITDAforecasttothetop-endoftheguidance,

now2%aboveVAconsensus.Toframetherisk–reward,ournote

Near-term

tailwindslikelyyetrecessionriskspersist–Fourscenarios

laysoutfourscenariosindetail,fromaGoldilockscase,withindustrialrecoveryintactand2026

EBITDAof€7.8bn,~15%aboveconsensus,toastagflationaryoutcome,wheremarginpressuredrivesEBITDAdowntoroughly€6.0bn.

nClariant:Thegroupdeliveredsolid11%EBITDAbeatin4Q25drivenbyCatalysts.For2026,however,managementareguiding‘flat’LCsalesgrowthandEBITDAmarginb.s.i.ofc.18%,implyingEBITDAcCHF675m,c.1%belowconsensuswithatoughfirstquarter.

nDSM-Firmenich:VitaminA/Epriceswereupc.3%/27%respectivelyMoMonthebackoftheMiddleEastcrisisandareabovetheirYTDaveragesbutbelow2025averages.Followingthe

long-awaiteddisposalofAnimalNutrition

,thisshouldnowhardlymatteranymore.Atitsrecent

CMD

,thegrouppointedto~2%1Q

organicsalesgrowthguidancewhichinourview,shouldalleviateconcerns.Themanagementalsoreiteratedconfidenceinreturningto4–6%underlyinggrowth,drivenbyafocusonhigh-growth,high-margincategories.

nEvonik:Europeanmethioninepricesarec.33%higherMoMinMarch,amidtheMiddleEastconflict.Thesharppricereactiontoits

forcemajeure

indicatesthatcustomersaremoreconcernedaboutavailabilitythanprice.Evonik’sspot

exposureislimitedandcontractpricingislessvolatile,butwestillseethisas

evidencethathigherpricesshouldmore-than-offsetvolumelossesfromthe

FM.Weaddedapositive

catalystwatch

notingEvonikislikelytobenefitfrom

Asianfeedstock-shortagesinmethionine.Inaddition,thesubstantialspread

increaseinAsianbutadieneshouldalsoleadtomarginexpansioninEurope.TheAprilEUBDcontractpricesettled50%higherMoM.Combinedwiththehigher

4

oilpriceandthefactorprice-mechanism,thisshouldsupportEvonik’sstrugglingC4businessinQ2.

nLanxess:ThespotpriceforbromineinChinawasupc.1%MoMonaveragein

March.HigherbrominepricesshouldoffersomesupporttoLanxess’earnings

thisyear,whichareunderpressurefromweakdemandandChineseimports,

bearinginmindittakes>6monthsforspotpricestobeconvertedintohigher

contractpricesintheEU/US.AmidtheongoingMiddleEasttensions,thegroupis

raisingpricesquickly

andmateriallytoatleastoffsethigherinputcosts,

thoughitisstilltooearlytogaugethefulleffectiveness,orwhetherthiscould

eventranslateintomarginexpansion.ManagementalsonotedfirstwithdrawalsofoffersfromChinesecompetitors,whichcouldoffersomereprievefromthe

importpressureandmightleadtohighervolumesandmarginsinthestrugglingAdvancedIntermediatessegment.

nSolvay:GlobalsodaashmarginsbasedoncontractpriceswereupinEuropeonlowercosts;favorableforSolvay.EarlyMarchspotpriceswereflatinEurope,

downintheUSandupinAsia.Also,sodaashcontractsinEuropewithenergyformuladidn’tseeanysurchargesinMarch.Thatsaid,theMiddleEasttensionscouldleadtohighercostsinEuropeonthebackofrisingenergycosts.CMA’sflattishdemandoutlookfor2026isunchangedbutnowincludesacaution

aroundsustainabilityofdemand,notingmacroandgeopoliticalrisks.

nSyensqo:WeremainNeutralonSyensqointo2026aswe

expectlowcycle

demandconditionstocontinuethrough1H

beforevolumespossiblystartto

acceleratein2H.For2026,1QEBITDAisexpectedtobethelowestquarterwithFY26expectationsaround€1.1bn(in-linewithcons.).

nWackerChemie:DMCpricesincreasedsomewhatagaininMarch,following

double-digitupswingsinNovember/December,remainingmateriallyabovethedecadelowsofQ2/Q3.ItremainstobeseenwhetherDMCmightbecomea

templateforanti-involutionandwhetherthemeasuresthathaveledtothis

increasewillbeimplementedinotherproductchains,aswell.ThedirectimpactforWackershouldremainlimited,though,aswebelievethatthemainreasonsforthelowearningsinSiliconesarelowSpecialtyvolumesandanadversemix.Whetherthemultiplepriceincreasesannouncedbythecompanywillleadto

materialpositivenetpricingremainstobeseen.InPolymers,thetightnessin

aceticacidshouldhelp,buthistoricallynetpricingswingsherehavebeen

moderate.Whethertightnessinmethanolwillleadtosupplydistortionsin

Siliconesisunclearfornow.For2026,thegroup’soutlookforEBITDAof€550-700m

doesnotincorporateanyimplicationsfromeitherSection-232

orthe

Middle-Eastconflict.

nF&F(Symrise/Givaudan):ForGivaudan,we

lowered

ourFY26OSGto3.7%from4%,(1QOSGdownto2.1%from3.1%)givenasofterstarttotheyearforvolumesandalsofactorinslightlyhigherraw-matinflation,withfurtherupsiderisks

dependingonthedurationoftheMiddle-Eastconflict.ForSymrise,1Qoutlookisclearlydisappointing;managementguidestoLSDorganicdeclineontough

compsandsoftend_markets.However,theremainderof2026issettoimprove,andthefull_yearguidance(OSG2-4%,EBITDAmgn21.5-22.5%)was

confidentlyreaffirmed.Overall,improvingoperatingefficiencyandpipelinepointtohigherreturnswhengrowthnormalizes,near_termweaknessshouldbean

entrypoint

.

5

US

nCelanese:Withspotmethanolpricesup~45-50%sincestartofMEconflictandmorethan~15%ofmethanolbeingtrappedintheME,webelievetheindustry

couldcontinuetoseehigheracetylspreadsinthenear-term.Assuch,we

reiterateCEasourtoppick,aswebelievethecompanywillbenefitfromrising

globalacetylsspreadsalongwithincreasednylonandotherEMexport

opportunities.Whileweacknowledgethataprotractedeventcoulddampen

autoproductionoutlookandweighonconsumertrendsonlingeringinflationarypressures,webelievetheindustryhasalreadybeenworkingthroughlow

volumesandthespreadbenefitwilllikelyoutweighmodestvolumedrags.

nDowChemical:WiththeindustrylookingtoraisecontractPEpricesbyatleast20cppacrossMarch/April(aboveour1Hestimateof12cpphike),webelieveDowshouldseehigherintegratedmarginsin2Qasethanecostsremainstable.As

notedinourrecentupgradenote(

link

),eveninashort-cycledevent,webelievethedisruptionsacrosstheMELNGandrefineryassets,alongwithdisruptions

andshutdownsacrossthedownstreamcrackersinAsiaandEurope,couldresultinhigherspreadsacrosstheNAethylenederivatives,alongwithhigher

operatingrateenvironmentforDow.

nEastman:EMNnotedrecentlyataconferencethatits1Qwillbeatthelow-endofthe$1.00-1.20EPSguidancerangegivenadditionalpressureontheCI

marginsandweakerdemandinautos.Thatsaid,lookingaheadto2Q,EMN

expectstospreadimprovementsinCIgiventhehigherpropylene-propane

spreads(EMNhas500mmpoundsofpropylenecapacityandprocuresan

additional500mmpoundsatcost),whichshouldprovidemeaningfultailwindsin2Q.Thatsaid,higherparaxylenecostscouldmodestlyimpactAMmargins.Thatsaid,orderbooksacrossthebusinesshavegenerallytrendedinlinewithexpectationsasthecompanysawsequentialliftfromJantoFeb.

nHuntsman:Overall,webelievethedirectimpactforHUNwillbetherising

naturalgascostsinEuropeandhigherbenzenecosts.Forsensitivity,$1/MMBtuchangeinTTFisa$10mmEBITDAimpactinannualcosts.WhilewebelieveHUNcouldputsurchargestopassthesehigherenergycosts,demandremains

challenged,andconcernsremainonfurtherinflationarypressuresdelayingtheratecutcycle.Onthatfront,HUNhasannounceda€200/tonneincreasefor

IndianboundMDI.WithlessAsianMDIimportsintoEurope,webelieveHUN

couldoffsetsomeofthesecoststhroughpricingactions.Additionally,withHUNsellingwheremanufactured,wenotethatHUNhaslesscapacitytoexportandtakeadvantageofthespreaddiversionfromNAtoEurope.

nLyondellBasell:SimilartoDow,wenotethattheNAindustryislookingtoraisecontractPEpricesbyatleast20cppacrossMarch/April,whichshouldleadto

higherintegratedPEmarginsin2Qasethanecostsremainstable.Asnotedinourrecentupgradenote(

link

),LYBisalsoadvantagedonitsacetylsandMTBEproductioncapacity,whichshouldhelpI&Dsegmentearningsin2Q.For

sensitivity,inNA,wenotethat$100/ton(4.5cpp)changeinintegratedPE

marginisa~$320mmannualimpact,whileinEurope,thesamechangeimpliesa$280mmimpact.Foroxyfuels,a$1/bblcrudeoilchangeisa$20mmimpactglobally.Wealsonotetheimpactacrossthepolypropylenechain,where

$100/tonPPtoPspreadimpact,impliesa$440mmannualimpactforNAandEU.Lastly,wenotethata$100/tonPOspreadimpliesa$160mmimpactforNAandEU.

6

nWestlake:WebelieveWLKseesmodestbenefitprimarilyonsignificantupliftforPEandamoreoptimisticoutlookforchlorovinyls.Thatsaid,withWLK

purchasing~700mmpoundsofethylene,therearesomepressuresonhigher

ethylenecosts.WealsonotethatWLKhasrecentlyannounced9-12cpppricingactionsonepoxyresins.Wehaverecentlypublishedadeepdiveofour

PVC/chlor-alkalinotehighlightingourfavorofWLKoverOLN(

link

).As

highlightedinournote,wepreferWLKaheadofaneventualrecoveryinUS

housing,whichwebelieveshoulddriveareturntomid-cycleoperatingratesandearningsinchlorovinylsinthenext2-3years.Wealsoanticipatemostbenefitsin2026toaccruefromself-helpandmodestgrowthinHIP,includingtherecentACIacquisition.Weforecast34%Y/YEBITDAimprovementassuminglittle

underlyingimprovementinPEMvariablemargins.

Asia/Japan

nLGChem:LGC’sstockpricehasfurtherdivergedwithLGESsince2H24,

indicatingmutedinvestorhopeforanyimminentvalue-unlocking.Giventhe

record-highNAVdiscountmightstillpersist,wenolongerviewLGCasagood

proxyplayforLGES,insteadwepreferdirectexposurethroughLGES.

Managementexpectsmeaningfulvolumepickupforcathodewillonlyhappen

into2H.Full-year~40%growthtargetseemsrealisticonneworders(mostly2Himpact)bufferingUSEVslowdown.Furthercathodeupsidedependsonthe

certificationofnewNCMAproductforupgraded2170.Onchems,keyfocuses

remaintheoptimizationoflow-marginbusiness/shifttoHVA/costreduction/geographicaldiversification(e.g.,US/EU).Onrecentgeopoliticalconflictimpact,Naphthacrackerareimplementingruncutsduetoshortageofnaphtha

feedstockandthedifficultyinpassingthroughassociatedcosts.

nFormosaPlastics:WenolongerseeFPCasadefensivepickgivenunexciting

dividendyieldoflessthan1%inFY24onweakestearningsmomentumamongpeersthisyearandnegativeFCFonequitysupportforPRCstainlesssteelJV.

DespiteIndiadroppingpreviousPVCADDdutyandlikelynoBISregistrationforimports,weexpectAsianPVCprice/spreadtoreboundfrom2QonnarrowercompetitivenessofPRCexports.Weexpectnear-termchemdemandpickuptobemoregradual,whileindustryglutcouldkeepspreadstoughacrossmany

chains.Onrecentgeopoliticalconflictimpact,feedstocksupplyfromFPCChasbeenreducedduetocrackerruncutsandashortageofnaphthafeedstock.

nFormosaChemical&Fiber:Weexpect2023willlikelybethelastyearofmajorPXcapacitygrowthgloballyandthat2024-26Eadditionscouldbequite

minimal.Itsintegratedbusinessmodel(upstreamaromatics)couldpartlybuffertheseverePTA/ABS/PS/PP/phenolglutinChina.Onrecentgeopoliticalconflictimpact,feedstocksupplyfromFPCChasbeenreducedduetocrackerruncutsandashortageofnaphthafeedstock.

nNanYaPlastics:WeexpectNYPwillcontinuetobedraggedbyMEG&BPA

supplyglut.Wethinkinvestorsmayprefer‘pure’PCB/DRAMplaysratherthanholdingcompanyNYP.ThecurrentresidualvalueofNYPisatmid-endof

historicalrange,whichweconsiderexpensivegivenchemwashugelyinthered.

nKumhoPetrochemicals:Weseeimprovingsyntheticrubberprofitabilityaheadduetolimitedglobalcapacityadditions,pricesupportfromagradualtighteningofnaturalsupplyD/Sbalanceandcheaperinputcosts(hugeBDstartupsin

Chinaover2026-28E).Whilenear-termNBlatexspreadremainslackluster,we

7

seescopeforbetterpricingpower/marketshareregainsoverthenext1-2yearsontheenactmentofUSSec.301tariffonChineseglovesimports.Whileotherkeyproducts(phenol/BPA/EPOXY/ABS)staytough,thisseemswellpricedin,withlimitedfurtherspreaddownside.

nPETRONASChemicals:PCHEMisakeybeneficiaryofglobalureatightnessonStraitofHormuzdisruption.ThisglobalureatightnessisfurtherexacerbatedbyminimalexportfromChinaandperiodicsupplydisruptionsintheMiddleEastandAfricaduetogasfeedstockconstraints.Itannouncedthatitsexisting

ethane&propanefeedstocksupplycontractsandpricingtermsforPCOlefinswillremainunchangedforanother5yearsuntilDec2029(previouslyextendedby2-yearstoNov2025).

nWanhua:WhileWanhuacontinuestoenjoyindisputableMDIcost

competitiveness,weexpectUS’santi-dumpinginvestigationonChinaMDI

importscouldcapupsideasChinaseemsincreasinglydependentonexportstoeasethedomesticsurplus.ThesizeablePRCimporttariffsagainstUSimportswillhurtitschemicalmargingivenitsheavydependenceonUSimported

feedstock(propane:~35%ofPRCtotalfromUS,ethane:100%).Bothitsnewlystartedmixed-feedcracker(~50%ethane-feed)andexistingPDH#1/2and

propanecracker#1couldseelowerrunrate.PDHeconomicswerealreadyquitepoorbeforethereciprocaltariffs.Risingmarketfragmentationoffunctional

materials(eg,POE)coupledwithmassiveglutforcommoditychems/ongoingheftycapexofSinopec/PetroChina’schemdivisionhaveledtoastructuralROEdeclineforWanhua.

nLBGroup:TiO2pricestaysattroughbutweseedownsidesupportonrisingcostandexpectationofdemandrecovery.Weexpectnewchloride-TiO2expansionswilltaketimetofullyrampup,whileEuropehigh-costTiO2capacityis

vulnerabletofurtherclosures.WearepositiveonLB’svertical(intoilmenitefeedstock)andhorizontalexpansions(intotitaniumchain).EUanti-dumpinginvestigationonChinaTiO2importcouldhurtsentimentbutLBsitslowon

globalcostcurve.

nRIL:RIL’sO2Cbusinesscouldbenefitfromstrongerrefiningcracks,particularlyjetfuelanddiesel,givenglobalruncutsandexportrestrictions,thoughthis

wouldbepartiallyoffsetbyhighcrudedifferentialsandfreightrates.

Additionally,thepetchembusinessalsostandstogaingivenhighdegreeof

integration(keyrawmaterialslikenaphtha,propylene,andoff-gasesare

sourcedfromitsrefineries)aswellasdiversifiedsourcing(accesstoUSethane).

CEEMEA

nIndustriesQatar,Buy(TP15.1QAR):whilstthemacrooutlookforpetchemsandsteelremainsmuted,webelieveureamarketshavesupportinto2026andgivenIQ’srelativelyhighexposuretothesegment–anduntaxingvaluation(7%DY)–itremainsadefensivepickintheMENAchemicalsspace.

nSABIC,Neutral(TP58SAR):recentstrategicdivestmentsinEurope(

note

)

provideawelcomeFCFboost,particularlyifwearecorrectinourviewthatthe2026macrowillbechallenging.Avaluationthatisnowtradingbelowbook

(0.9x)makesrationalesensetousgiventhecurrentoversupplybutwequestionwhetheritisenoughastheneartermreturnsprofile(c2%RoE’26E)remains

constrained.

GlobalChemicalsCracker

27March2026CitiResearch

8

PriceandMargins

GlobalChemicalsCracker

27March2026CitiResearch

9

OverviewofMajorProductMoves

Figure3.OverviewofProductPrices–CurrentMonthisMarch2026

Product

MoM

.3m

.6m

YoY

QTDvs.priorQtrΔ

QTDvs.priorYrQtrΔ

YTDvs.priorYrYTDΔ

Oil

41%

58%

45%

36%

22%

3%

13%

Naptha-Europe

19%

25%

13%

2%

6%

-12%

-3%

EthylenePrices

28%

25%

21%

14%

7%

-3%

2%

US

-1%

-3%

-3%

-15%

-2%

-18%

-7%

Europe

2%

2%

0%

-3%

0%

-1%

-1%

Asia

100%

91%

75%

66%

27%

8%

16%

PropylenePrices

8%

17%

9%

-1%

9%

-8%

0%

US

1%

22%

4%

-16%

15%

-23%

-6%

Europe

1%

0%

-2%

-6%

-1%

-3%

-3%

Asia

24%

38%

29%

24%

18%

4%

11%

Butadiene

39%

67%

45%

15%

32%

-8%

8%

US

10%

41%

13%

-18%

12%

-27%

-11%

Europe

5%

7%

-7%

-20%

-2%

-20%

-15%

Asia

81%

138%

116%

71%

83%

15%

45%

Benzene

13%

32%

34%

9%

23%

-4%

12%

US

9%

14%

18%

0%

14%

-6%

6%

Europe

-6%

19%

30%

-4%

25%

-4%

14%

Asia

40%

63%

51%

30%

28%

-3%

14%

Polyethylene

15%

15%

11%

5%

-11%

-2%

-1%

US·

0%

·-29%

·-29%

·-29%

·-29%

·-29%

Europe

2%

0%

-4%

-7%

-2%

-4%

-6%

Asia

39%

42%

38%

23%

14%

1%

7%

Polypropylene

20%

26%

17%

6%

9%

-5%

1%

US·

29%

·46%

·27%

·9%

·16%

·-9%

1%

Europe

1%

3%

-2%

-6%

1%

-4%

-3%

Asia

44%

49%

40%

24%

16%

-1%

6%

PVC

5%

8%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

US

5%

11%

11%

·3%

7%

·1%

3%

Europe

3%

3%

2%

8%

1%

10%

3%

Asia

7%

14%

1%

-1%

1%

-9%

-4%

Styrene

11%

24%

21%

7%

15%

0%

6%

US

9%

18%

18%

5%

11%

-1%

5%

Europe

3%

16%

11%

-3%

12%

-2%

1%

Asia

30%

51%

45%

26%

28%

3%

15%

Polyurethanes.Europe

MDI

1%

12%

-1%

-14%

8%

-14%

-7%

TDI

-4%

-17%

-28%

-2%

-17%

4%

-4%

Polyol

11%

23%

20%

-4%

13%

-6%

0%

Others.Europe

PC

0%

-1%

-4%

-6%

-1%

-8%

-5%

Capro

-14%

-9%

-2%

-15%

2%

-13%

-1%

AcrylicAcid

7%

7%

7%

1%

2%

-3%

0%

Nylon

-1%

6%

7%

-9%

8%

-7%

0%

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,DataStream,Bloomberg,ICIS,CMA,*Feb'26

GlobalChemicalsCracker

27March2026