蒙牛乳业2025年业绩预告点评：减值出清轻装上阵行业景气触底回升

财务报表分析和预测主要财务标 主要财务标 2024A2025E2026E2027E营业入 -10.09%-7.50%3.10%4.00%归属公净润 -97.83%1308.71%203.10%20.74%毛利率 39.57%41.00%41.50%42.00%销售利率 0.12%1.79%5.28%6.13%ROE 0.25%3.42%9.39%10.18%ROIC 0.29%2.62%6.32%6.84%资产债率 54.82%53.26%51.02%48.64%净负比率 59.21%49.93%30.72%12.94%流动率 0.971.081.291.52速动率 0.830.941.151.38总资周率 0.800.770.770.76应收款转率 25.5926.1327.6027.72应付款转率 5.915.886.266.29每股益 0.030.381.151.39每股营金流 2.132.612.953.19每股资产 10.6111.1012.2513.65P/E 650.3743.4714.3411.88P/B 1.661.491.351.21EV/EBITDA 20.8913.518.316.93现金流量表 2024A2025E2026E2027E经营活动现金流 8,33210,13211,44612,386净利润 1051,4724,4625,388少数股损益 120314702848折旧摊销 3,6012,7272,5352,358营运资金变动及其他4,5065,6183,7463,792利润表 2024A2025E2026E2027E营业收入 88,67582,02484,56787,950其他收入 0000营业成本 53,58448,39449,47251,011销售费用 23,09321,36122,02322,904管理费用 4,2293,9124,0334,194研发费用 513392370385财务费用 56743636397除税前溢利 9993,1086,5597,629所得税 7751,3221,3941,393净利润 2251,7875,1646,236少数股损益 120314702848归属母公司净利润 1051,4724,4625,388EBITDA 4,6566,5789,73110,383EPS（元） 0.030.381.151.39资产负债表 2024A2025E2026E2027E流动资产 资产负债表 2024A2025E2026E2027E流动资产 35,76838,69746,94056,268现金 6,1999,75617,73926,711应收账及票据 3,2623,0173,1113,235存货 4,9374,4594,5584,700其他 21,37021,46521,53221,622非流动资产 70,52567,91265,37663,019固定资产 23,04521,20219,50517,945无形资产 17,66916,78515,94615,149其他 29,81129,92529,92529,925资产总计 106,293106,609112,316119,286流动负债 37,00735,87336,39937,116短期借款 16,66216,66216,66216,662应付账及票据 8,6477,8107,9848,232其他 11,69811,40111,75412,222非流动负债 21,26120,90620,90620,906长期债务 17,97617,97617,97617,976其他 3,2852,9312,9312,931负债合计 58,26756,77957,30558,022普通股本 357357357357储备 43,73145,22149,70155,106归属母公司股东权益 41,56243,05247,53252,937少数股权益 6,4636,7787,4808,327股东权益合计 48,02549,82955,01161,264负债和东权益 106,293106,609112,316119,286-3,500-4,463-1,351-1,302-3,475000-25-4,463-1,351-1,302-6,325-2,129-2,129-2,129-3,494000-284000-1,924000-623-2,129-2,129-2,129-1,0033,5577,9838,972其他投资借款增加已付股利其他现金净增加额备注：（1）为2026年3月9日；（2）币， ，HTIAPPENDIX1SummaryEvents:Thecompanyreleasedits2025performanceforecast.Affectedbytheindustryenvironment,full-yearrevenueisexpectedtodeclineby7%-8%year-on-year.CoupledwithimpairmentprovisionsofRMB2.2-2.4billion,thenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersoftheparentcompanyisprojectedtobeRMB1.4-1.6billion,resultinginshort-termperformancepressure.Thisperformancefluctuationreflectsbothriskclearanceandstructuraloptimization,andthecompany'sfundamentalsremainresilient.ResilientOperationalEfficiencyAmidIndustryPressure.Againstthebackdropofindustryheads,thecompany'soperationalefficiencyremainsresilient.In2025,thedairyindustrywitnessedcontinuouschangesindemand,channels,andcompetitivelandscape.Therevenuedeclineweakenedeconomiesofscale,yetthefull-yearoperatingprofitmarginisexpectedtoreach7.9%-8.1%,aslightdecreaseof0.1-0.3percentagepointsfrom2024butstillhigherthanthatofpreviousyears.Notableresultshavebeenachievedincostandmarketingexpensecontrol.Meanwhile,thecompanycontinuestoinvestinnewproductR&Danddigitalization,layingasolidfoundationforthesubsequentenhancementofcorecompetitiveness.PrudentImpairmentProvisions,CoreOperationsUnaffected.InaccordancewithInternationalFinancialReportingStandardsandtheprincipleofprudence,thecompanyhasmadeimpairmentprovisionsforassetsincludingidleproductionfacilitieswithoutshort-termrestartplans,accountsreceivablewithdoubtfulcollection,andentrustedloans.Thisrepresentsthecentralizedclearanceofhistoricallyaccumulatedassetrisks,ratherthanissuesatthecorebusinessoperationlevel.Moreover,theimpairmenthasnothadasignificantadverseimpactonthecompany'sdailyoperations.The2025operatingcashflowisexpectedtoremainstableyear-on-year,withasolidfinancialfoundation.RemarkableProgressinBusinessStructureOptimization,CoreSegmentsShowingDifferentiatedGrowth.Despitetheoverallrevenuedecline,thecompany'sinternalbusinesslayoutcontinuestoimprove.Inthesecondhalfof2025,asrawmilkpricesstabilizedanddemandrecovered,liquidmilkrevenueachievedasteadyquarter-on-quarterrebound.High-value-addedsegmentssuchasfreshmilk,milkpowder,andcheeserecordeddouble-digitgrowththroughouttheyear,becomingimportantpillarsofperformancegrowth.Thetrendofdiversifiedbusinessstructureisprominent,aligningwiththeindustry'smainthemeofdairyconsumptionupgrading.InvestmentThesis:Currently,thesupply-demandpatternofthedairyindustryhasshownmarginalimprovement.Thestabilizationofrawmilkpricesbringscost-sidebenefitstodairyenterprises,andindustryrecoveryisimminent.Asaleadingdairycompany,Mengniu'sassetqualityhasbeenfurtheroptimizedafterthisimpairmentclearance,enablingittoembracetheindustryrecoverywithaleanerstructure.Coupledwithproductinnovationandchannelupgradingunderthe"OneBody,TwoWings"strategy,thecontinuousdevelopmentofhigh-growthsegmentswillbecomethecoredriverofsubsequentgrowth.Short-termperformancefluctuationswillnotalterthemedium-to-long-termrecoverytrend.Weestimatethecompany'srevenuefor2025-2027tobeRMB82.02billion,RMB84.57billion,andRMB87.95billionrespectively,withnetprofitattributabletoshareholdersoftheparentcompanyofRMB1.47billion,RMB4.46billion,andRMB5.39billion.ThecorrespondingEPSwillbeRMB0.38,RMB1.15,andRMB1.39(previousvalues:RMB1.03,RMB1.27,RMB1.37).Referringtothevaluationofcomparablecompanies,wemaintaina20xPEratioforthecompanyin2026,revisingthetargetpricedownfromHK$27.6toHK$26.2(1CNY≈1.137HKD),andmaintainthe"Outperform"rating..Risks:Slower-than-expectedprogressinlivestockde-stockingandweaker-than-projectedconsumptionrecovery..APPENDIX2ESGCommentsEnvironmental:Mengniuhaschangedthepackagingofsomeproductstobiodegradablepackaging,andhasalsomadeeffortstocontroltheenvironmentalimpactofupstreamanimalhusbandrySocial:Mengniufactoriesandranchesarelocatedinmanyprovincesandcitiesacrossthecountry,providingemploymentopportunitiesforalargenumberoflocalpeopleGovernance:Mengniuhasasoundgovernancestructureandascientificorganizationalstructure附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，吴岱禹，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,JasmineWucertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).国泰海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“国泰海通”）在过去12个月内参与了2319.HK的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、国泰海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、国泰海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、国泰海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。GuotaiHaitongSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.and/oritssubsidiaries(collectively,the"GuotaiHaitong")havearoleininvestmentbankingprojectsof2319.HKwithinthepast12months.Theinvestmentbankingprojectsinclude1.IPOprojectsinwhichGuotaiHaitongactedaspre-listingtutor,sponsor,orlead-underwriter;2.equityordebtrefinancingprojectsof2319.HKforwhichGuotaiHaitongactedassponsor,lead-underwriterorfinancialadvisor;3.listingbyintroductioninthenewthreeboard,targetplacement,M&AprojectsinwhichGuotaiHaitongactedaslead-brokeragefirm.2319.HK目前或过去12个月内是国泰海通的投资银行业务客户。2319.HKis/wasaninvestmentbankclientsofGuotaiHaitongcurrentlyorwithinthepast12months.国泰海通在过去12个月中获得对2319.HK提供投资银行服务的报酬。GuotaiHaitongreceivedinthepast12monthscompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesprovidedto2319.HK.国泰海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从2319.HK获得投资银行服务报酬。GuotaiHaitongexpectstoreceive,orintendstoseek,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesinthenextthreemonthsfrom2319.HK.评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100,美国–SP500;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina. 截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布 截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市中性弱于大市优于大市中性弱于大市(持有)(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%投资银行客户* 3.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, asofDecember31,2025 asofSeptember30,2025 OutperformNeutralUnderperformOutperformNeutralUnderperformHTIEquityResearchCoverage93.9%6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%IBclients*3.0%4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’sliste