瑞银-中国互联网行业：中国人工智能与在线垂直领域更新-China Internet Sector Presentation-China AI and online verticals update-20260410

a§ +86-21-38668883 婚§2Section1UBS婚§3 AnalystAnalystCompanynameMktcapRatingPricetargetImpliedYTDreturnWeiXiong39,093180.0059%-13%MiniMax0100.HK39,9481,000.00998.000%505%T33,81980.0054%-28%Iflytek15,95860.0047.2127%-6%14,4429.3938%-45%6,07723.0070%-34%0780.HK5,28026.5045%-19%9899.HK3,503300.00137%-32%KingsoftCloud4,00626%41%Wondershare70.0069.371%-2%0700.HK602,519780.00508.5053%-15%AlibabaGroup294,361170.0036%-15%144,129198.0091%-9%Meituan3690.HK68,791128.0088.0045%-15%42,18148.0029.0565%1%73,125180.0058%-16%24,67868.0045.0251%-30%37.5024.2954%-1%13,3059.806.3056%-15%Vipshop7,55320.0030%-13%3,19580.0060.7932%-5%NewOrientalEducation&Technology9,44780.0057.3440%4%6,99070%5%0839.HK9322.802.694%-13%0772.HK3,43150.0026.3090%-20%WeiboCorp2,1628.8545%-13%2.5088%-31%MOMO.O8.806.2341%-5%婚§437%34%31%19%25x17%22%11%9%7%-3%14x1%3x13%13%13%13%13%13%4%4%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%22%2%-5%-7%34%0%-1%37%-12%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%24%13%6%31%19%-3%7%13%9%11%0%婚§5 Implied1M3M36%11.0%0.18x32.7%-8%-17%-15%144,12991%17.6%0.11x31.0%-1%-14%-9%Meituan45%14.4%21.011%-11%-15%42,18165%5.9%34.2%5%-1%1%30%3.7%-6%-14%-13%10.1%25.4%0%-11%-10%OnlineMediaandEntertainment602,51953%4.94.510.8%11.9%-8%-17%-15%73,125114.0458%4.211.1%13.3%-3%-18%-17%51%4.8%(4.6%)-27%-40%-30%TME.N38%9.3%8.8%-33%-46%-46%137%10.6%11.2(7.2%)-17%-33%-32%10,15354%9.1%24.4%-9%-17%-1%88%1.4%-6%-35%-31%2,16245%4.5%0.4%-10%-16%-13%41%1.3%7.0%-2%-5%-5%90%7.3%37.0%-16%-26%-20%56%4.0%5.7%-6%-18%-15%6.7%9.4%-13%-25%-21%MiniMax0%220.0%44.2%-18%475%475%113.5159%4.9%1.7%8.10x-10%-21%-13%27%17.8%0.19x34.3%-12%-15%-6%26%26.4%(38.9%)4%33%41%1%17.1%67.3%-12%-16%-2%4.220.4%20.9%4.17x-10%1%11%70%4.44.012.7%11.3%-10%-30%-34%33,81951.8754%12.5%11.5(12.2%)-2%-31%-28%45%11.0%0.15x13.1%-8%-24%-19%12.1%12.2%-7%-28%-27%11.4670%27.8%4%3%5%40%12.4%0.14x14.5%8%-2%4%4.1052%2.9%(0.9%)-5%-14%-13%UBSUBS20.1%14.5%6%0%5%ChinaInternetavera10.4%12.6%-7%-17%-13%婚§6Shortinterest(as%offreefloat)Shortinterest(USDm)WeiboTongchengHuyaMeituanT AlibabaVipshop0%5%10%15%20%15.4%3.3%110.8%10.5%9.1%1%%%6.2%5.0%4.9%4.7%4.1%2%1%0%%3.2.21.3%0.8%0.6%AlibabaMeituanTTongchengTMEWeiboVipshop5,146.2,01000200030004000500060005,146.2,6,421.1792.6724.58.573.27WeiboTongcheng AlibabaMeituanTVipshopJD.com9.43.53.03.02.72.72.62.07.06.96.36.14.54.34.34.14.1ab7婚§8remainpositiveontheoutlookforacceleratedadoptionandmonetisation,andwee•Onthemodellayer,weexpectcontinuedrapiddomesticLLMcapabilityiterationtocatchupwithUSpeers.•Ontheapplicationlayer,wenoteChinaandtheUSarefollowingsimilarAImonetisationpaths,withcloudandadsthemostvisibleacceleratingmonetisationin2026.•Ontheinfrastructurelayer,weexpectcomputingpowerlocalisationtocontinue,withprogressinchip-levelperformanceandsupernodestotakeoveranincreasingshareofinferenceWeview2026asapotentialyearofscaledadoptionofAIagents,whereAIusageshiftsfromchattoaction.usageofmoreAIandagenticfunctionswithintheseAInativeapps.Overtime,weseethepotentialforconsolidationamongChincumbents,thiscouldfacilitatetheemergenceofconsumer-facingAIsuperappsinChdevelopmentandmonetisationin2026.EnterpriseAImonetisationsurgingglobally;China'smodelsgainmarketshare•WenotemorepositiveprogressinAImonetisationintheglobalenterprisemarket,withAnthropicraisingits2026revenue•WealsoseeincreasingpresenceofChina’sAImodels(suchasMiniimprovingintelligenceandcost-to-performanceadvantages.婚§9Comparedwithinternetcompanies,AIcompanieshavedifferentchaTheirrevenuegrowthmayfollowastep-functiontiedtomodelcapabilityinsteadofagradualramp-up;optimizingcomputeefficiency;ThelackofanetworkeffectleadstohighervolatilityinAIleadershipcloselyrmaycarrystructurallygreateruncertaintyWeviewmodeliterationasthecoredriverofAItechnologyadvancementandakeydeterminantofvaluationevolution.Weovertime.Summaryofannualisedrecurringrevenue(ARR)growthandvaluationmultiplerangeARRandvaluationinOpenAIandAnthropicfundraisingsSources:Companydata,PitchBook,TheInformation, 婚§10婚§11Webelievean'AIbubble'inChinaremainsunlikelyatthisstage:flowsratherthanthirdpartyfinancing.3)HighIDCutilisation:RegulatorscontLookingahead,Weremainpositiveonthe2026Ecapexoutlook:•China’sinternetleaderscotoitsthree-yearRmb380bnAIinvestmentpla2Q203Q204Q202Q203Q204Q204Q212Q223Q224Q222Q233Q234Q232Q243Q244Q242Q253Q254Q252Q203Q204Q204Q212Q223Q224Q222Q233Q234Q232Q243Q244Q242Q253Q254Q25CapexofUShyperscalers,quarterly(USDm)140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000AmazonMicrosoftGoogleMetaAs%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%CapexofChina'sinternetleaders,quarterly(Rmbm)80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000AlibabaTencent16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%婚§12downcycle,accordingtoIDC.InduYoYgrowth.andKingsoftCloudrecognizedtheincrementalboostfromAIintheirrevenuegr60%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%AlicloudTencentCloudBaiduCloudKingsoftCloud(public)60%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%AmazonAWSMicrosoftAzureGoogleCloud婚§13•MajorChineseandUSmediaplatformshaveseenAIbenefitsinsupportingadrevenuegrowth.BilibiliandWeiboindicatedAI•Overtime,LLM/AIcouldalsobringinnovationinadformatsandnewmonetizationopportunities.WehavealreadywitnessedFigure:PotentialLLM/AIimpactonadrevenuedrivers婚§14TheimpactofAIonadrevenueinChinaandUSinternetsectors–4Q25withfull-yearrevenueofRMB81.5bn,up12.5%YoY.ThegrowthwasAIcontributionAIcontributed~5%ofgrowthindomesticonlinemarketingservicesrevenueinQ42025throughgenerativerecommendationandintelligentbiddingmodels,whileAIGCmarketingmaterialsdrovenearlyRMB4bnintotalspending.AI-poweredproduSolutionsanddigitalhumansolutwithrapidgrowthfrominternetservicesandlocpartiallyoffsetbyslowereComAIcontributedtoadvertisingbusinessthroughscaledadvertisingfoundationmodelsforbetteradtargetingandconversions,generativeAI-powerecreativesolutionsforefficientadcreation,automatedcampaignsolutionscommercialqueryvolumegrowth.WeiboQ42025advertisingrevenuesgrew5%YoYto$403.8million,withfull-year2025sectorsunderperformed.Alibabaadrevenuessurged49%YoYto$173.8millifullyear2025,demonstratingstrongmomentumine-commercepartnerships.AIsignificantlyenhancedadvertisingperformancethroughmultipleapplications:AI-generatedadcreativesaccountedfor40%ofpromotedfeedadconsumptioninDecember2025,AIintegrationimprovedtrafficmonetizationefficiencythroughoptimizedbiddingmodelsandconversionpaths,andAIcapabilitiesstrengthenedadtargeQ4advertisingrevenAIcontributedtoadvertisinggrowththroughdeepercommercialalgorithmintegrationthatboostedtrafficvalue,improvedadtargetingprecisionliftedcoldstartsuccessratesby300%,andattractedAI-relatedadvertiserswhosebudgetsclimbednearly180%YoYinQ4.AmazonAdvertisingrevenuegrew22%YoYinQ4,generating$21.andaddingover$12bnofincrementaexpandingto16countriesandmillionviewersglobally,upfrom200millioninearly202AIcontributestotheadvertifortargetedaddelivery,theAdsAgentforAI-poweredcampaigncreationandoptimizationatscale,andtheCrguidanceandAmazon'sretaildatatogeneratefull-funneladcampaigns,transformingaweeks-loGooglemajorverticalsledbyretail,whileYouTubeadvertisinggrAIcontributestoadvertisingbusinessthroughGemini-poweredimproveinqueryunderstandingandrelevanceevaluation,generationofcreativeassets(70millioninQ4viaAIMaxandPMax),agenticadvertisertools,andearlymonetizationexperimenMetaAIsignificantlycontributedtoadvertisingbusinessthroughimprovedrankingoptimization,AI-poweredcreativetoolsgenerating$10bnrevenueruna§•AIagentovertimecouldbringmeaningfulbenefitsthroughproductivityandefficiencyimprovement.Wedevelopeda2x2matrixtogaugethepotentialrevenuepool,mappingdifferentagentstomaturesectmodel,althoughlarge-scalexpectcontinuedeffortsfromChina'sinternetleaderstoAIagentmonetizationAgenticAIAgenticAITechnologyinnovationsVerticalAIagents-withindustry-specifick'now-how'A"hyperapp"thataddressgeneralneeds?-the“trafficgateway”Website1Website2Website3InformationPricingmodelshift:App1App2App3AlibabaValueaddedValueshareEnterpriseuse(2B)Consumeruse(2C)a§AIagentmonetization2x2matrix-mappingtocurrentsoftware/internetmarketsSuper'trafficSuper'trafficgateway'ConsumerAI-enabled'apps'Sources:MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology(MIIT),companydata,UBSestimates.Note:TheTAMfiguresrepresenttheaggregaterevenueofcompanies,ratherthanretailvalueorGMV.TAM:~Rmb250bnAgenttype:vertical+consumerAIagentproducts:-Education:YuanfudaoAIAgent,BeisenAILearning-Jobseeking:SearchXAI;ZilieAiagent,BeisenAIHRAgenttype:vertical+enterpriseAIagentproducts:-Programming:Trae,BaiduComate,AlibabaAIProgrammer,BabelAgent-Design&E-commerceImages:Lovart,CollovAI-Video/Audio:Medeo,ListenHub-CustomerService:ShulexAI-CRM:RongxiCopilot&Agent-Research:atypicaAI-Tax:KingdeeCosmic-Finance:HuataiAIResearchAgent-Healthcare:LenovoTCMAgentHarmonyOS)JD.com,PDD)-OTA,TAMof~Rmb70bnTongcheng)Agenttype:general+enterpriseAIagentproducts:-AgentDevPlatforms:COZE,AgentBuilder,AlibabaBailian,TencentYuanqi,Modai,AutoAgents-Office:KingsoftCopilotPro,DingTalkAIAssistant,Tencentima.copilot-Productivity:COZESpace,Manus,Genspark,FlowithAgentNeoAgenttype:general+consumerYuanbao,BaiduXinxiang,KunlunTianGongSkyAgents,MeituanAgent(upcoming)-General-purpose:-Travel:TTripTongchengChengxinAI,FliggyAskpolishandwillingnessRmb161bn(eg,Windows,HarmonyOS)OceanBase,GaussDB)-Subscription(seat-basedprGeneralVerticalAI-enabled'workplatform'TAM:~Rmb280bn(eg,education,fitness,personalfinance)EnterpriseNew'SaaS'TAM:~Rmb3.2trnTAM:~Rmb1.3trn婚§17HowsustainableisOpenClawmomentum?•DespiteOpenClaw'searlytraction,webelieveagentadoptionwillcomeinstages.Wefltheenterprise-facingand'prosumer'segmentswhereagentscanaugmentexistingworkflowsanddirectlytranslatetomonetisationWidespreadadoptiondrivingrisingAImodeltokenusage•WenotethatthefastadoptionofOpenClawisdrivingrapidexpansionoftheoverallAImodelAPImarketglobally,asshownby•China'sinternetleadersareproactivelyintegratingOpenClawintheirecosTotalweeklytokenusageviaOpenRouterSources:OpenRouter.Note:TheabovetokenusagedatareferstoallappsusageonOpenRouter,includingOpenClaw,KiloCode,ClaudeCode,etc.Theabovedataisasof8April2026.a§trafficgateways,whileenhancingAIagentecEmergingAIEmergingAIlabsInternetLeaders•MiniMax•MiniMaxhasadvantagesinitsconsumeruserbaseanddemonstratesbetterefficiencyinitsenterprisebusiness.•ZhipuAIgeneratesalargershareofrevenuefromlocalmodeldeploymentfor2B/2Gclients,whileGLM5.0hasachievednotableimprovementsincoding.•Moonshot.sKimiisshiftingitsfocusfromconsumerchatbotstowardenterpriseservices,includingcodingandofficeproductivitytools(e.g.,documentsandPPT).•DeepSeekremainsinnovation-driven,focusingonadvancingmodelcapabilitytowardAGI,withmonetisationlikelycentredonenterpriseapplications.•StepFunisbackedbylocalgovernmentfunding,whileitscommercialisationremainsgradual.•ByteDance(Doubao)demonstratedstrongmultimodalcapabilitiesandfastmodeliteration,leveragingitsadvantagesincontentandsocialinteractiondatafromDouyin/TikTok.•AlibabaemphasizesintegratingAImodelswithitsownecosystemtoservebothenterpriseandconsumerusers(e.g.,DingTalkandQwen).•Baidu(Ernie)featuresstrongreasoningcapabilityandcostefficiency,withbetterindustryknow-howinverticalssuchasfinanceandhealthcare.•Tencent.sAIrolloutremainsgradual,butithasbroadusecasesacrosssocialandgamingecosystems.abSection2a§StockRevenueNon-GAAPRevenueNon-GAAPKeyinvestordebatesKingsoftCloudBeat/+1.9%Beat/+139%139.9%1.WhatisthegrowthmomentumofAItrainingandinferencedemandfromtheXiaomiecosystemandthird-partyclients?2.Howtoplancapexunderthebackdropofchipsupplyuncertainty?3.Whencanoperatingmarginturnpositive?Inline/-0.4%Beat/+12.2%1.Whenwillthelegacybusiness(i.e.,coreads)revenuebottomout?2.WhatisthegrowthoutlookforitsAI-poweredbusiness?3.HowtothinkaboutthevaluationframeworkandSOTPupside?TongchengTravelInline/+1.0%Beat/+8.5%4.7%1.What’sthemarginexpansionpotentialforCoreOTAinthenextfewyears?2.Whatisthestrategicfocusofthecurrentinvestments?3.Canitsdomesticbusinesscontinuetooutgrowtheindustry?BossZhipinInline/+0.8%Beat/+6.3%1.Howsustainableisthestronghiringdemandtrendpost2026CNY,andwhatistheoutlookforcashbillinggrowth?2.WhataretheAIimplicationsforthelabourmarket,hiringplatforms’businessmodels,andBZ’sAIstrategies?3.WillBZmaintainanimprovingmargintrendamidincreasedAIspendingandpotentiallyhighermarketingexpenses?TBeat/+3.5%Beat/+1.2%1.Whataretheimpactsoftheantitrustinvestigationandwhenwillitbesettled?2.What’sthegrowthmomentumandinvestmentplanfortheinternationalbusiness?3.Howtothinkaboutthemarginoutlookin2026andouteryearswithdifferentTMEBeat/+2.5%Miss/-1.0%1.WhataretheimplicationsofAI-generatedmusiconcontentsupplyandmusiclisteners’behaviour,andtheimpactonstreamingplatforms’businessmodel?2.Whatisthegrowthoutlookforitsmusicsubscriptionbusinessamidrisingcompetitionfromemergingplatforms(i.e.,SodaMusic)?3.Howtothinkaboutnon-subscriptiongrowthopportunitiesandthemarginimpactfromrevenuemixshifts?a§•Solidtraveldemandpost-CNY,whiletherolloutofspringbreakforprimaryandsecondaryschoolsin2026shouldsupportdemandtraveldemandgrowth:asofend-Mar2026,over10provin•Rapidgrowthofinboundtourism:Inboundtourismcontributeslessthan1%ofgrowthofinboundrevenueinthepastfewquarters,andweexpectsuchmo•Pureoverseasmarketsasalong-termgrowthdriver:OTAplatformsaremakingeffortstoexpandtheirglobalfootprint,which•AIimpact:AIdisruptionhasbeenarisinginvclosed-loopbookings,whichrequirescontinuedmonitoring.a§Over10provincesandcitieshaveannouncedSpring&Autumnbreakin2026MainCoverageZhejiangMainlyprimaryandsecondaryschools2026springbreakscheduleshavebeenreleasedacrosscities,althoughtimingisnotfullyuniform.JiangsuMainlycompulsoryeducationInmanycities,springbreakisscheduledadjacenttotheQingmingholiday,andistypically3days,withimplementationvaryingbylocality.SichuanMainlycompulsoryeducationSpringandautumnbreaksaretypically3dayseach,withtimingcoordinatedattheprefecture/citylevel.AnhuiMainlycompulsoryeducationInmanycities,the2026springbreakisscheduledadjacenttotheQingmingholiday,makingAnhuioneoftheprovinceswithbroaderrolloutthisyear.ChongqingMainlyprimaryandsecondaryschoolsBreaksaregenerally2-3dayseach,withcity-levelguidanceanddistrict/county-levelimplementation.ShandongPrimaryandsecondaryschools,includingsecondaryvocationalschoolsSpecifictimingisdeterminedbyeachcity,followingprovincial-levelpolicyguidance.MainlycompulsoryeducationSpringandautumnbreaksaregenerally2-3dayseach,withclearprovincial-levelGuizhouMainlyprimaryandsecondaryschoolsInmanyareas,springbreakwasarrangedinearlyApr,indicatingthatimplementationhasmovedintotheexecutionstage.MunicipalCity-widecompulsoryeducationThe2026springbreakisscheduledforApr2-3,adjacenttotheQingmingholiday,whiletheautumnbreakisscheduledforNov11-13.MunicipalMainlycity-widecompulsoryeducationandkindergartensSpringandautumnbreaksaregenerally3dayseach;Grade9typicallyhasautumnbreakonly,withnospringbreak.MunicipalMainlycompulsoryeducationschoolsSomecounties/citiesinEnshihaveannouncedspringbreakarrangements,withsomescheduledinearlyApr,althoughtimingvariesbylocality.a§Domestictouristnumber(mn)Touristnumbergrowthvs.2019(LFL)TouristnumberYoYgrowth1,00090036.4%33.2%80036.4%33.2%28.2%70028.2%26.0%26.6%60026.0%26.6%21.1%19.0%18.5%50021.1%19.0%18.5%15.1%14.6%3.8%40015.1%14.6%3.8%10.2%11.5%11.9%9.4%6.8%30010.2%11.5%11.9%9.4%6.8%6.4%6.3%0.0%6.3%5.9%5.9%5.2%5.7%6.4%6.3%0.0%6.3%5.9%5.9%5.2%5.7%5.7%2001.6%1.6%0CNYQingmingFestivalCNYQingmingFestivalCNYQingmingFestivalCNYQingmingFestivalCNYQingmingFestivalCNYQingmingFestivalLaborDayDragonBoatFestivalLaborDayDragonBoatNewYear'sGoldenWeek/Mid-AutumnGoldenWeekMid-AutumnFestivalFestival202420252026Chinaweeklydomesticairseatcapacity,paxvolumeandairfareYoYADRYoYperformancebysegment(Mar22-28)50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%婚§24TglobalMAU(m)–TAnalysisofT'skeyAsianmarketsMAUMAU(mn)YoYgrowth27.075%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%30.025.020.00.0Onlinetravelmarketsize(US$bn)andmajorcompetitorsinkeyAsianmarkets50.0%50.0%45.0%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%Agoda10.5%9.6%Agoda7.3%1.3%7.0%5.4%8.3%6.6%10.5%9.4%18.0%14.1%15.5%12.4%AgodaAgodaAgodaAgoda 40045.8%11.3%婚§25EffectiveARPPUvsstandardsubscriptionpriceforTMEandNCM(2024vs2020)Chinaandglobalstreamingplatformpricingcomparison(standardmonthlyauto-renewalprice)