美银-2026年2月全球电动汽车追踪报告-EV tracker Feb-26 final BEV weakness ahead of oil driven recovery

GlobalAutomobiles

EVtrackerFeb-26:finalBEVweaknessaheadofoildrivenrecovery?

IndustryOverview

BEVsalesfell-15%y/yinFeb26,penetrationat11.8%

GlobalBEVsalesdeclined‑15%y/y(-13%m/m;-8%YTD)inFeb‑26to713kunits,as

growthslowedinChinaandtheUS,whileEuropeansalesgrowthremainedresilient.InEurope,BEVsalesgrew+20%y/y(+19%YTD),supportedbycontinuedemission

regulationtargets,subsidies,andtaxbreaks.However,salesinChinaandtheUS

declinedby‑40%y/y(-29%YTD)and‑33%y/y(-32%YTD),respectively,followinga

reductioninsubsidiesinbothregions.InChina,seasonaleffectsfromtheLunarNew

Year,alongsidereducedpurchasetaxincentives,contributedtothedeclineandaslightdropinBEVpenetrationto21.6%.IntheUS,theweaknessislessapparentona

sequentialbasisaswereachanewpostsubsidyrunrate(-2%)PHEVsfollowedasimilarpattern,withEuropeup+36%y/y,contrastedbysteepdeclinesintheUS(‑53%)and

China(‑41%).Lookingahead,wemaintainourBEVsalesforecasts(Exhibit6)despite

weakerYTDBEVsalesinChina&theUS.WethinktheMiddleEastconflictand

associatedhighfuelpriceswilldriveBEVsaleshigheralreadyasofQ226e.Accordingly,westillexpectglobalBEVsalestogrowby11%y/yinFY26e,withpenetrationat17.5%(YTDpenetrationatc.12%globally),whichisstillbelowS&P’s19%penetrationforecast.

ByOEM:Teslarecovers,ChineseOEMslookabroad

DetailsbyOEM(Exhibit2&3):(1)Tesla:modelsarebackontopofleaderboards

acrossregions.Thecompanygainedm/sinFebassalesreboundedfromaverylowbaseandentry‑levelmodelsrampupglobally.Also,Teslaalreadyreported1Q26salesgrowthof+6.5%y/y,pointingtoacontinuedrecoveryasnewlower‑pricedvariantsscale.(2)

EUOEMs:OnaYTDbasis,STLA&VWdeliveredstrongperformance,withSTLA

gaining+170bpsto4.3%andVW+70bpsto7.5%m/svsFY25.Globally,VWmovedbackaheadofGeelytorankthirdinglobalm/s.(3)ChineseOEMs:BEVsalesdeclined‑40%inFeb(YTD:‑29%)inChina,leadingtoglobalm/slosses,notablyatXiaomi(‑200bps)&BYD(‑140bps).Asaresult,ChineseOEMsincreasedtheirfocusonexports,which

accountedforc.46%ofBEVsalesinFebruary(c.41%YTD),drivenbySouthAmericaandtheEU.InEurope,ChineseOEMsalesgrew+7.9%m/mdespitefewersellingdays,ledbyLeapmotor(+100%)&Xpeng(+24%).(4)KoreanOEMs:Kia&Hyundaibenefited

fromChineseOEMweakness,gaining+170bpsand+160bpsinm/sm/m,respectively.

Other:moreincentives,moredemand,morecompetition

1)EUEVpricerebates:incentivesroseinApr-26vs1Q26(Exhibit28).VWmodelssawthebiggestrise.WithrisingBEVdemandduetohighoilprices,wethinkthatthesepricerebatesmightdropagain.ButthisshowsthatthecompetitioninEuropeisfierceas

ChineseOEMsenterthemarket.2)RawmaterialpricesforBEVproductionarelargelyunaffectedfromtheIranconflictforthemoment.ThisfurthersupportsaBEVshiftamidrisingoilprices.3)Modellaunches:astheBeijingAutoShowapproachesOEMsramp

upmodellaunches:BYDunveiledits2ndgenbatterywithchargingspeedsmatching

petrolrefuellingwhileVWplanstounveil4new“inChinaforChina”modelsacross

differentsegments.Competitionisnotslatedtoease…whichisanegativeforpricing

>>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystundertheFINRArules.

Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattake

1

MostimportantBEVnewsflowlastmonth

Exhibit1:HeadlinesthatcaughtoureyesrecentlySummaryofthemostrelevantnewsflowonBEVs

UsedEVsalesjumpinEuropeasIranwardrivesuppetrolprices

•ThewarinIranhasdisruptedglobaloilsupplies.Thissurgehassignificantlyboosteddemandforusedelectricvehicles(EVs),withonlineplatformsreportinganotableshiftawayfrom

traditionalcombustionengines.InNorway,EVshavebecomethebest-sellingfueltypeon

Finn.no

,surpassingdieselmodels.FrenchretailerAramisautosawitsEVsalesnearlydoubleduringthisperiod,withEVsandhybridsgainingpopularityaspetrolpricesincrease.Source:Reuters

USStatesAbsorbGovernmentEVChargingFundingCuts

•TheUSDepartmentofTransportationrevisedNationalElectricVehicleInfrastructure(NEVI)guidanceinlate2025,seekingtoeasepermittingandacceleratefunddeployment.Thisbrieflyboostedindustrysentiment.However,theFY2026appropriationslawredirectedmorethan$875millionfromfederalEVchargingprograms.MostofNEVI’sroughly$3.5billionremains

available,butonlyabout13%hadbeenobligated.Thisleavesalargeshareoffundingexposedtofuturepotentialrescissions.Source:Bloomberg

BYDUnveils2ndGenerationBladeBatteryandFLASHChargingTechnology

•BYDrolledoutitssecond-genBladeBatteryandFLASHchargingtechtotackletheissueswithslowspeedsandweakcold-weathercharginginEVs.

•Thesetuphitsanewrecord:10%to70%chargeinfiveminutes.Itreaches97%innineminutesflat.At-30°C,a20%to97%chargeaddsjustthreeminutesoverroomtemp.BYDaimstobuild20,000FLASHstationsinChina.Bigglobalpushstartsbylate2026.Source:BYDWebsite

BMWtolaunchseriesproductionofthei3inAugust

•BMWstartsseriesproductionofitsall-electrici3sedanthisAugustattheMunichplant.ThismodelridesontheNeueKlasseplatformasthesecondonethere.ThefactorywillswitchtoEVsonlyby2027aftermajorupgrades.FromAugust,outputhits1,000unitsadayfori3andplatformmates.TheyusetheiFactorymethodwithAI,robots,anddigitaltwins.That'slikethesetupinDebrecen,Hungary.Source:Electrive

TheTrumpadministrationhassuedCaliforniatostopenforcementofthestate’sEVmandate

•TheUSDepartmentofTransportationfiledthesuit.ItaimstostoptheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardfromenforcingzero-emissionvehiclerules.Thoserulesdemandcarmakerssellmoreelectricvehicleseachyearinthestate.

•HarshelectricvehiclemandatesraisepricesforAmericanbuyers.Theybreakfederallaw.Californiareliesonoutdatedpoliciestodriveupcosts.TheJusticeDepartmentbacksPresidentTrumpandSecretaryDuffyinthislawsuittocutcarpricesforfamilies.Source:MotorIntelligence

EVsAvoidedUseof2.3MillionBarrelsofOilPerDayLastYear

•Growingglobaladoptionofelectricvehicleshelpedavoidtheconsumptionof2.3millionbarrelsofoilperdaylastyear.

•Electricvehiclesareexpectedtocutmoreoildemandlaterthisdecadeastheybecomemorecommon,withavoideddailyconsumptionprojectedtomorethandoubleto5.25millionbarrelsby2030undertheeconomictransitionscenario.Source:BNEF

DepreciatingusedEVsareabouttocostautomakerfinancecompaniesbillionsofdollars

•AsurgeofleasedEVsisreturningtothemarketwithresalevaluesfarbelowprojections,creatingpotentialindustry-widelossesofbillionsofdollars.Off-leaseEVvolumeisrisingquicklyandisexpectedtopeakin2028atnearly800kvehicles,drivenbytheexpirationoftwo-tothree-yearleasesthatwereboostedbynow-expiredfederaltaxincentives.Industryexperts

estimateEVscomingoffleaseareworthabout$10klesspervehiclethanexpectedonaverage,potentiallyresultinginaround$8bninlossesforautomakerfinancearms.Source:

AutomotiveNews

Post-incentiveslump:USEVsalesdown28%

•Inthefirstquarterof2026,newbattery-electricvehicle(BEV)registrationsintheUSdeclinedby28%year-on-yearto212.6Kunits,withtheoverallmarketalsoshrinkingcomparedtolate2025.Accordingly,theshareofnewcarsalesthatarefullyelectricisnowat5.8%,astherecord7.5%shareinQ32025wasunlikelytoberepeated.TheexpirationoffederalEVtaxcreditshasimpactednewEVaffordability,promptingconsumerstoturntousedEVsorhybrids.Hybridvehiclessawsignificantgrowth,comprising26%ofnewcarsalesinlate2025,withvolumesup57%year-on-year,partlydrivenbyrisingpetrolpricesamidgeopoliticaltensions.Source:Electrive

ElectriccarmakerXpengaimstodoubleoverseassales,tolaunchEVsinMexico

•Xpengaimstodoubleitsoverseassalesin2026,targeting20%oftotalrevenuefrominternationalmarkets.ThecompanywilllaunchitsG6andG9electricSUVmodelsinMexicoendofMarch,expandingitspresenceinLatinAmerica.

•ThismoveispartofXpeng’sbroaderglobalexpansionstrategyasChineseEVmakerslookabroadduetointensedomesticcompetitionandslowinglocaldemand.Xpengrecentlyachieveditsfirst-everquarterlyprofitinQ4,joiningpeerslikeNio,LiAuto,andLeapmotorinreachingbreak-even.Source:Reuters

Porschelikelytocontinuedevelopmentofelectric718successors

•Porscheisstillindevelopmentofelectricsuccessorstothe718models,withnoconfirmedlaunchdate.CEODanielSchmollingerpraisedthedrivingexperienceoftheupcomingelectricversion,whichisexpectedtodebutasabattery-electricvehicle,thoughdetailsonpotentialhybridorcombustionvariantsremainunclear.Theprojecthasfacedsignificantdelaysdueto

challengeswithdrivetraincomponents,batteries,andsupplychainissues,notablyaftertheinsolvencyofbatterysupplierNorthvoltandthewithdrawalofValmetfromtheproject.Source:

Electrive

HondaCancelsAllThreeEVsThatItPlannedtoBuildintheU.S.

•Hondacancelledplansforits0SeriesSUV,0Seriessaloon,andAcuraRSXandexpectedtofacesbiglossesin2026fromthisshift.Aspercompany,U.S.tariffs,unclearEVincentives,andfuelrulesplayedarole.InChina,buyersnowwantsoftwareoverfuelsavingsorroom.Hondaadmitsitcan'tbeatnewChinesebrandsonvalue.ThecarsweresetforanOhioplantretooledovertwoyears.Instead,HondaeyesacostsetupthatfitssmallerEVplans.Lossesmayhit$15.8billion.Topleaderscutpayby30%forthreemonths.AnewstrategycomesataMaypressevent.Source:Car&Driver

ChineseautomakerBYDisconsideringCanadaforawhollyownedmanufacturingplant

•BYDeyesafull-ownedfactoryinCanada,oritmightbuyaweaklocalcarmakertogrowfast.

•CanadacutitstariffonChineseEVsto6.1%from100%.Itallowsupto49,000importsayearnow,risingto70,000by2031.Halfshouldcostunder$35,000.BYD,Geely,andVinFastbidonanoldNissan-MercedesplantinMexico.Winnergets230,000vehicles'worthofspaceandskilledworkers.Source:MotorIntelligence

Rolls-RoycehasdroppeditspreviousplantobecomeanEV-onlybrandby2030

•OfficialsalsoindicatedthatRolls-RoycewouldofferV12gasoline-fueledautomobiles“fortheforeseeablefuture,”withparentBMWGroupnotonlyconfirmingthatitwillcontinuetoproduceICEpowerplants,includingRolls-Royce’sV12,andaddingthatitsfutureinternalcombustionengineswillmeetupcomingemissionsstandards.

•Rolls-RoycehasnoplanstodiscontinueitsSpectreEV,introducedforthe2023modelyear.It'sonlycurrentelectricvehicle,justover1,000unitsweresoldgloballyduring2025,makingittheultra-luxurybrand’shighest-volumepassengercar.Source:MotorIntelligence

Source:BofAGlobalResearch,Bloomberg,

E

,Reuters

BofAGLOBALRESERCH

GlobalBEVsalesandmarketshare(I)

Exhibit2:InFeb-26,GlobalBEVsalesfell-12.5%m/m(-15%y/y)duetoslowergrowthinChina,whereallthemajorOEMssalesfellmorethan20%m/m.Teslagainedthemostm/s+510bps,followedbyKia(+170bps)&Hyundai(+160bps).Xiaomi(-200bps)&BYD(-140bps)lostthemostm/s

2025

14,405,904

2024

11,296,395

1Q252,864,343

2Q253,440,784

3Q253,886,294

4Q254,214,483

Oct-251,349,918

Nov-251,402,711

Dec-251,461,854

Jan-26815,441

Feb-26713,196

4Q243,636,316

BEV

Globalunitsales

MarketshareTeslaInc.15.8%11.4%

BYD15.1%14.9%

VWGroup6.6%6.8%

GeelyAutoGroup6.3%8.1%

Stellantis2.7%2.6%

Kia1.7%1.7%

HyundaiMotor2.0%1.9%

BMWGroup3.8%3.0%

ToyotaMotorCorp.1.3%1.4%

NIOInc.2.0%2.3%

Xiaomi1.2%2.9%

LiXiang0.1%0.5%

ChanganAutomobileGroup2.7%3.3%Renault1.2%1.7%

SAIC2.3%2.1%

Wuling5.6%6.0%

Geely-VolvoCarGroup2.0%1.5%

Xiaopeng1.7%3.0%

Ford1.4%1.5%

PenetrationrateBYD42.9%51.0%

VWGroup8.5%11.4%

GeelyAutoGroup31.8%40.8%

Stellantis5.1%6.5%

Kia6.8%7.9%

HyundaiMotor5.7%6.6%

BMWGroup17.6%17.9%

ToyotaMotorCorp.1.3%1.8%

ChanganAutomobileGroup17.3%26.4%

Renault5.8%10.5%

SAIC11.0%12.5%

Ford3.9%5.3%

14.1%

10.6%

7.8%

5.1%

4.5%

3.7%

3.3%

3.2%

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

2.5%

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.0%

1.9%

1.7%

13.0%

13.3%

6.6%

6.2%

2.7%

1.1%

1.1%

2.8%

1.7%

3.1%

3.4%

1.4%

3.2%

2.3%

1.9%

4.0%

1.8%

2.4%

1.7%

5.6%

14.4%

6.1%

7.8%

2.7%

1.5%

1.5%

2.6%

1.3%

3.0%

3.6%

1.0%

4.0%

1.7%

2.8%

8.8%

1.4%

3.0%

1.4%

9.0%

12.0%

7.1%

5.5%

4.2%

2.1%

1.7%

2.9%

2.7%

3.7%

4.8%

2.3%

3.1%

2.4%

3.5%

2.1%

1.7%

1.7%

1.5%

11.0%

12.9%

5.9%

7.7%

2.6%

1.3%

1.3%

2.6%

1.5%

2.6%

3.3%

1.0%

3.5%

2.1%

2.8%

8.0%

1.3%

2.5%

1.5%

53.0%

11.0%

40.2%

7.4%

8.3%

5.7%

17.7%

1.9%

33.9%

12.0%

14.8%

5.6%

47.9%

11.8%

41.8%

7.8%

7.0%

5.2%

17.3%

2.2%

33.2%

14.2%

17.6%

6.4%

42.5%

12.4%

28.1%

7.8%

6.4%

4.4%

17.4%

2.5%

29.2%

14.5%

13.3%

6.6%

54.3%

8.9%

24.1%

7.9%

7.0%

4.8%

13.3%

2.4%

20.9%

13.1%

19.5%

4.5%

49.3%

9.5%

23.3%

7.0%

11.3%

8.0%

14.5%

2.5%

15.8%

10.0%

11.4%

4.5%

GlobalEVvolumesbyOEMs(sortedbyhighestsalesinthelatestmonth)

TeslaInc.

1,787,952

1,636,554

495,174

336,319

384,029

497,113

419,093

74,998

153,759

190,336

73,337

100,599

BYD

1,709,810

2,143,931

533,250

398,993

589,037

585,692

570,209

194,275

181,147

194,787

97,904

75,524

VWGroup

746,180

979,768

231,823

219,905

247,569

249,143

263,151

82,650

83,337

97,164

58,253

55,920

GeelyAutoGroup

711,486

1,167,682

293,013

263,290

295,152

304,281

304,959

105,562

108,334

91,063

44,945

36,490

Stellantis

304,040

380,170

71,857

92,457

93,691

81,906

112,116

36,954

36,113

39,049

34,068

32,035

Kia

196,710

242,352

47,963

58,557

59,507

69,981

54,307

20,660

17,622

16,025

16,779

26,679

HyundaiMotor

227,047

267,241

60,479

56,923

68,255

88,521

53,542

19,722

17,927

15,893

13,905

23,285

BMWGroup

431,514

436,657

120,120

112,526

110,932

100,461

112,738

35,179

36,344

41,215

23,623

22,971

ToyotaMotorCorp.

142,576

198,567

32,255

35,360

45,521

53,792

63,894

18,133

20,738

25,023

21,701

21,319

NIOInc.

223,193

324,231

73,213

42,532

72,298

87,280

122,121

40,160

36,005

45,956

30,067

21,069

Xiaomi

139,658

412,308

69,794

75,921

82,134

108,713

145,540

48,812

46,478

50,250

39,275

20,394

LiXiang

11,268

70,791

2,942

2,414

3,401

17,558

47,418

13,433

14,208

19,777

18,354

17,590

ChanganAutomobileGroup

307,984

480,118

108,885

84,953

112,286

132,352

150,527

54,297

48,850

47,380

25,493

16,453

Renault

130,952

243,093

44,530

51,446

53,110

53,010

85,527

23,486

29,097

32,944

19,581

16,236

SAIC

255,366

306,472

69,201

50,245

62,131

89,060

105,036

37,826

39,854

27,356

28,841

15,700

Wuling

633,331

859,278

265,158

164,905

188,930

214,782

290,661

119,408

112,724

58,529

16,809

15,380

Geely-VolvoCarGroup

220,886

217,982

54,598

47,391

56,257

51,150

63,184

18,853

18,636

25,695

13,791

14,165

Xiaopeng

188,716

425,397

89,406

97,321

101,616

115,545

110,915

40,665

35,374

34,876

14,224

13,637

Ford

158,599

221,869

54,557

42,294

47,344

68,623

63,608

18,935

20,417

24,256

12,098

12,474

13.6%

11.7%

11.2%

12.8%

9.9%

14.7%

13.9%

17.1%

15.1%

13.5%

6.4%

7.7%

7.2%

6.4%

6.2%

8.1%

9.2%

8.6%

7.8%

7.2%

2.0%

3.2%

2.7%

2.1%

2.7%

1.3%

2.0%

1.7%

1.8%

1.3%

1.7%

2.0%

2.0%

2.3%

1.3%

3.3%

3.9%

3.2%

2.6%

2.7%

0.9%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

2.0%

1.5%

2.1%

2.2%

2.9%

1.9%

2.7%

2.4%

2.8%

3.5%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.5%

1.1%

3.0%

3.0%

3.3%

3.4%

3.6%

1.2%

1.8%

1.5%

1.4%

2.0%

1.9%

1.8%

1.8%

2.3%

2.5%

7.3%

5.8%

5.5%

5.5%

6.9%

1.5%

1.7%

1.6%

1.3%

1.5%

2.5%

3.4%

3.0%

3.0%

2.6%

1.5%

1.5%

1.4%

1.8%

1.5%

39.9%

48.9%

54.5%

52.9%

47.4%

9.6%

10.7%

11.3%

11.9%

11.8%

38.2%

44.9%

45.1%

39.3%

36.0%

4.9%

6.2%

6.3%

5.8%

7.6%

6.6%

7.8%

7.7%

9.1%

7.2%

5.8%

6.0%

6.7%

8.7%

5.1%

17.6%

19.6%

17.8%

16.9%

17.5%

1.1%

1.3%

1.6%

1.9%

2.2%

19.8%

20.0%

24.4%

28.4%

32.1%

7.2%

9.1%

9.0%

10.1%

13.6%

9.2%

8.9%

11.0%

14.0%

15.2%

5.3%

4.3%

4.3%

6.6%

6.2%

Source:BofAGlobalResearch,EVvolumes

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

3

EVOEMs/Modelsinfocusforinvestors

Exhibit3:Letusknowifyouhavespecialrequests,wehavethedata

UnitsalesofkeyBEVmodelsandOEMswhichwebelieveinvestorshaveaspecialfocuson

Model

2024

Q1-25

Q2-25

Q3-25

Q4-25

2025

Jan-26

Feb-26

VWGroup

746,180

219,905

247,569

249,143

263,151

979,768

58,253

55,920

VWID.3/ID.4

318,099

68,289

69,688

68,372

58,960

265,309

12,068

12,023

VWID.7

32,389

18,901

19,394

15,967

22,655

76,917

4,686

4,118

AudiQ4e-tron

107,414

23,748

20,930

20,952

20,247

85,877

4,216

4,471

AudiQ6e-tron

15,082

16,451

20,385

25,329

18,007

80,172

3,905

3,268

SkodaEnyaq

80,328

19,975

18,099

19,385

22,037

79,496

5,669

6,533

SkodaElroq

47

6,785

27,592

26,064

35,993

96,434

8,466

8,753

Porsche

38,737

17,499

14,562

13,950

11,969

57,980

3,818

3,682

Porschee-Macan

16,311

12,957

10,059

9,143

7,877

40,036

2,497

2,352

Mercedes-BenzGroup

210,331

44,824

44,370

47,500

60,849

197,543

12,867

12,468

MercedesEQB

54,064

12,375

13,559

11,805

13,250

50,989

1,969

1,541

MercedesBenzEQE/EQESUV

57,851

9,849

9,395

8,087

12,183

39,514

1,657

1,590

MercedesEQA

53,080

12,698

11,543

12,553

12,049

48,843

2,914

2,854

MercedesCLA

5

112

128

3,966

13,147

17,353

3,415

3,465

BMWGroup

431,514

112,526

110,932

100,461

112,738

436,657

23,623

22,971

BMWi4

81,296

21,233

19,658

15,847

18,364

75,102

3,649

3,250

BMWi5

45,424

12,691

11,284

10,949

12,903

47,827

2,455

2,217

BMWiX1

78,682

20,707

23,167

21,520

27,955

93,349

5,155

4,644

MiniBrand

53,385

25,643

24,084

25,663

28,452

103,842

6,907

7,384

Stellantis

304,040

92,457

93,691

81,906

112,116

380,170

34,068

32,035

Fiat500

33,196

5,912

6,422

5,538

7,472

25,344

1,643

2,340

Peugeote-208

39,332

7,520

5,478

4,869

10,302

28,169

2,616

2,139

Peugeote-2008

24,442

5,866

6,149

4,881

9,171

26,067

2,296

2,348

JeepAvenger

17,303

4,373

3,927

3,175

4,133

15,608

1,274

1,303

Citroene-C3

151

1,152

3,761

4,521

10,379

19,813

4,085

2,785

Opel/Vxh.Frontera-e

118

370

4,787

5,198

8,169

18,524

2,658

2,226

RenaultGroup

133,557

53,090

56,054

54,654

88,113

251,911

19,843

16,805

Renault5/AlpineA290

13,349

18,647

20,279

18,824

33,935

91,685

8,321

6,373

RenaultScenic

22,970

9,880

9,253

7,668

12,025

38,826

3,586

3,515

HyundaiMotor

423,757

115,480

127,762

158,502

107,849

509,593

30,684

49,964

HyundaiIoniq5

103,469

22,337

24,173

36,316

16,792

99,618

4,505

7,922

HyundaiIoniq6

32,997

6,732

7,902

8,205

5,468

28,307

1,260

2,534

HyundaiIoniq9

0

965

3,896

8,243

4,173

17,277

1,536

2,805

HyundaiKona

61,594

11,929

13,283

14,561

11,542

51,315

2,792

3,912

KiaEV6

67,236

12,570

11,315

14,030

7,704

45,619

1,799

2,564

KiaEV3

18,875

26,273

26,462

25,262

20,646

98,643

4,786

7,093

KiaEV5

7,534

2,995

3,273

2,575

5,496

14,339

2,867

4,373

KiaPV5

0

0

0

670

3,039

3,709

1,318

3,597

ToyotaMotorCorp.

142,576

35,360

45,521

53,792

63,894

198,567

21,701

21,319

GM

897,022

220,332

260,813

314,380

345,484

1,141,009

25,847

27,176

ChevroletEquinox

47,780

12,588

20,672

28,377

7,454

69,091

1,388

3,745

WulingBrand

704,101

175,423

204,028

222,797

310,015

912,263

19,860

17,992

Ford

158,599

42,294

47,344

68,623

63,608

221,869

12,098

12,474

FordF-150Lightning

37,963

8,267

7,112

11,954

6,031

33,364

954

1,021

FordMustangMach-E

77,998

14,693

14,130

23,684

14,338

66,845

1,926

2,755

TeslaInc.

1,787,952

336,319

384,029

497,113

419,093

1,636,554

73,337

100,599

TeslaModel3

528,669

121,851

105,755

141,631

129,870

499,107

16,215

30,883

TeslaModelY

1,173,920

201,694

267,977

339,613

277,624

1,086,908

54,673

67,645

RivianAutomotive

51,551

8,332

10,526

13,201

10,119

42,178

2,640

2,907

LucidMotors

10,223

2,894

2,746

3,596

5,229

14,465

2,434

2,398

Xpeng

188,716

97,321

101,616

115,545

110,915

425,397

14,224

13,637

NIOInc.

223,193

42,532

72,298

87,280

122,121

324,231

30,067

21,069

BYD

1,709,810

398,993

589,037

585,692

570,209

2,143,931

97,904

75,524

BYDYuanPlus/Atto-3

339,481

57,682

68,497

58,213

41,381

225,773

11,015

5,384

BYDDolphin

217,269

37,061

60,492

66,161

65,770

229,484

15,657

9,385

BYDSeagull

472,582

91,314

110,710

92,518

118,776

413,318

17,336

19,894

GeelyAutoGroup

711,486

263,290

295,152

304,281

304,959

1,167,682

44,945

36,490

Volvo

176,682

34,963

38,966

35,991

47,100

157,020

10,287

10,931

VolvoEX30

95,869

18,012

18,394

17,652

23,957

78,015

5,065

5,299

Xiaomi

139,658

75,921

82,134

108,713

145,540

412,308

39,275

4

20,394

Source:BofAGlobalResearch,EVvolumes

OurglobalxEVsalesforecasts

Exhibit4:GlobalxEVsalestoexpandsteadilythrough2030E.WeexpectslightincreaseinEuropexEVpenetrationthroughout2030e.GlobalxEVBofAe2020-30e

xEVSalesbyRegion2020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

Europe1,409,5452,354,2772,711,7783,252,8683,287,2254,435,9785,365,5096,284,2997,428,8848,573,2718,858,167

West&CentralEurope1,404,8382,345,3582,701,7323,162,9623,089,3164,071,1515,010,9735,816,9436,674,8667,719,0237,883,521

US&Canada374,721748,1181,104,9031,633,0681,824,7911,714,7981,331,8081,431,9831,543,0571,732,3012,193,312

GreaterChina1,342,7233,418,7326,211,5828,449,98611,596,00613,696,93514,630,11315,831,93316,519,45717,128,19117,653,181

Japan31,03542,84493,692143,701134,691104,375306,548499,511681,693876,5371,055,709

Korea52,060115,424171,860169,660147,191233,155244,265263,997287,706305,566326,648

LatAm7,80819,99041,86894,155202,946349,218452,467606,881882,6751,070,2081,265,761

xEVas%ofLVsales2020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

Europe8.4%14.0%18.1%18.2%17.6%23.6%28.8%33.4%38.9%44.5%47.1%

West&CentralEurope10.2%16.9%20.8%21.4%20.5%26.8%32.9%37.9%42.9%49.3%51.8%

US&Canada2.2%4.2%6.7%8.7%9.4%8.6%7.4%8.0%8.6%9.5%12.1%

GreaterChina5.6%14.0%25.3%32.5%43.9%49.4%52.6%56.2%60.6%61.3%62.3%

Japan0.7%1.0%2.3%3.1%3.1%2.3%6.7%11.2%15.6%20.0%24.4%

Korea2.8%6.9%10.5%10.0%9.3%14.2%15.2%16.6%18.3%19.7%20.9%

LatAm0.2%0.4%0.8%1.8%3.5%5.6%7.4%9.8%13.9%16.5%24.1%

Others0.3%0.8%1.6%3.3%4.3%7.4%7.5%10.4%13.0%14.4%15.3%

Total4.2%8.4%13.2%16.1%

19.7%

23.1%

25.6%

28.7%

31.8%

34.0%36.1%

xEVunitsalesy/ychange%2020202120222023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E2030E

Europe138%67%15%20%

1%

35%

21.0%

17.1%

18.2%

15.4%3.3%

West&CentralEurope138%67%