2026年全球并购市场展望报告宏图致远构筑未来报告

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOKThink

Big,BuildBiggerFornearlythreedecades,I’vehadtheprivilegetowork

alongsideextraordinarycolleagues

advisingclientsthroughouttheircorporatelifecycles:from

early

days

focusedongrowth

and

scaletopivotalmomentsthat

redefinecapabilities

andentireindustries.What

remains

constant

throughout

market

cycles,geopolitical

strife,

and

other

exogenous

shocks

is

theenduringfocusof

business

leadersto

build,grow—andwhen

necessary,

pivot.

Iwasn’t

certainIwouldeveragainexperience

M&A

activity

levelsto

rival

those

of

2021—but

the

markets

in

the

secondhalf

of2025

proved

me

wrong,and

the

foundational

drivers

heading

into

2026

remain

just

as

robustand

encouraging.Behind

every

transaction,

no

matter

the

backdrop

or

market

cycle,

is

a

story

of

conviction

and

strategicdecision-making.And

while

strategy

is

paramount,so

is

timing—and

the

willingness

to

act

when

paths

tofinancing

and

completion

are

more

clear.

M&A

has

always

been

cyclical:

After

the

dot-com

bubble

andglobalfinancialcrisis,strategic

buyers

rebuiltthroughconsolidation.The

post-pandemic

cycle

saw

digitalacceleration

and

record

liquidity

drive

the

fastest

rebound

in

M&A

history.The

current

cycle

will

be

defined

by

strategic

repositioning

and

building

for

scale—and

extraordinaryambition

is

accelerating

the

pace

of

these

moves.Add

to

that:

tremendous

public

and

private

capitaland

the

macrocurrent

of

AI,which

itself

has

created

a

domino

effect

across

software,

data

centers,semiconductors,

realestate,

power,transmission,andso

much

more.While

none

of

us

knows

preciselyhowtheAI

revolutionwill

playout,companies,

boards,

and

shareholders

are

seeingthe

benefit

of

holdingmultiple

cards

to

play

against

the

opportunity

and

risk

it

presents.Companiesare

reimaginingtheir

portfoliosas

innovation

reshapes

industriesandcapital

awaits

deployment.Those

who

think

strategically

and

act

boldly

will

set

the

course

for

what

comes

next.StephanFeldgoiseGlobal

Head

of

M&AGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER

1A

LETTER

FROMSTEPHAN

FELDGOISEStephanFeldgoiseGlobal

Head

of

M&A2026Corporatesandsponsorsare

seizingan

innovationsupercycle—fuelingawave

of

strategic

growth.Our2026

Global

M&A

Outlookexploresthekeycatalysts

drivingtransformation

in

theyear

ahead.PrivateMarketsattheEpicenterofM&A

DealmakingPrivate

markets

have

becomecentral

to

global

M&A.Sponsorsaredeployingcapital

at

scalewhilesimultaneously

managingthetimingand

execution

of

exits.Larger,

more

complex

transactionsare

becoming

increasingly

prevalentasfinancingoptionsand

innovativedealstructures

expand.ProactiveMeasuresAgainst

PublicActivistCampaignsThecurrentenvironment

has

createdafavorable

landscapeforactivism,with

publiccampaignvolumes

nearinga

five-year

high.1

This

surge

is

largelydriven

by

M&A-related

demandsasactivists

increasingly

pushforcorporatetransformationandstrategic

clarity.An

InnovationSupercycleFuelingStrategicGrowthAI

isa

key

driver

of

innovation,disrupting

entire

sectors

of

theeconomyand

broadeningtheaperture

for

strategic

dealmaking.As

policy

uncertainty

moderatesandvaluations

normalize,“dream

deals”are

increasingly

defining

the

M&Alandscapeas

industry

leaders

lookto

acquire

new

capabilities.Complex

Deals

Demanding

FlexibleCapitalSolutionsThesizeand

structural

complexityof

transactions

are

growingalongsideshiftingfinancialconditions,

regulatory

constraints,and

business

priorities.

Now,traditionalsiloedfinancing

productsare

being

replaced

by

new

capitalsolutionsoffering

more

bespoke,flexible

structures.2TheAI

Factor:

Build,

Buy,

PivotUnlike

previous

technology-driven

transformations,AI

is

disrupting

everyindustry

all

at

once—albeit

to

varying

degrees—which

is

broadeningthe

aperture

for

strategic

M&A

across

sectors.And

unlike

other

macrotailwinds

that

may

economically

rhyme

with

prior

market

cycles—AI

iscompletely

newto

boardrooms.

It

isseismic

in

its

potential

impact,but

expertise

is

limited—pushing

boards

and

management

teamsto

make

large-scale

decisions

with

a

limited

knowledge

base.Thesetransactionsare

increasingly

bothdefensiveand

proactive:

insulatingcompaniesagainstdisruptionwhile

positioningacquirersforsustained

expansion.As

the

AI

era

continues

to

accelerate,the

sheer

amount

of

compute

itrequires

has

ignited

a

surge

in

demand

across

digital

infrastructure,

powerand

energy,semiconductors,and

hardware

optimization.

In

response,corporates

are

choosing

to

acquire

rather

than

build

across

the

technologystack—where

scale

and

time-to-market

remain

decisive

advantages.Between

Q12024and

Q3

2025,

US

hyperscalers’CapEx

averaged

$760millionper

day.5

By2030,another65

GW

of

data

center

capacity

isexpected

to

come

online—more

than

double

the

amount

added

from2019to2024—while

next-generation“AI

factories”with

+1GW

campusesintroduce

new

challenges

and

opportunities.6

At

this

scale,

everythinggets

more

complex

for

lenders,developers,and

hyperscalers—making

theefficient

sourcing,deploying,and

recycling

of

capital

more

critical

thanever.OpenAI’s

recapitalization

in

October

underscores

how

structuralcreativity

has

becomeastandardfeatureof

manyAI-relatedtransactions.757%2026

GLOBAL

M&A

SURVEYBythe

NumbersResults

from

a

November

Goldman

Sachs

surveyof600corporate

and

financial

sponsor

clientssupport

a

bullish

outlook

for

global

M&A

dealvolumes

in2026.8believeafocusonscaleandstrategicgrowthwillbetheprimaryfactordriving

M&A

decisions.951%believethatAIwill

haveamoderate

tohighimpacton

M&A

strategy.10Volatility

neverdissipatesentirely,

but

it

becomes

navigablewith

improvedclarity.After

markets

digested

the

initial

shock

of

US

tariff

announcementsand

reciprocal

measures

in

Q2,

M&A

activity

sharply

accelerated

as

centralbanks

cut

rates,

policy

uncertainty

moderated,valuations

normalized,andmarkets

recalibrated.CEO

sentiment

has

strengthened

in

turn,fueling

anenvironment

increasingly

defined

by“dream

deals”as

industry

leaderslook

to

acquire

new

capabilities

that

supercharge

their

next

phase

ofgrowth.

Large-scale

M&A

has

meaningfully

accelerated

across

regions—with

global

M&A

volumes

+40%2

and

global

mega

M&A

(+$10bn)volumes+128%YoY.3An

InnovationSupercycle

FuelingScaled

CorporateTransformationMEGA

M&A

DEAL

COUNT4Americas

EMEAAPAC+74%

+150%

+275%GOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER3“Thefundamentaldrivers

ofM&A—the

availability

ofcapitalinthepublic

andprivate

markets,theresurgenceoftheIPOmarket,the

desiretocontinuetopositionstrategically,the

abilitytoget

thingsdone—theseforcesare

allinplayin

2026.”DavidDubner|GlobalCOO

of

M&A

and

Global

Head

of

M&A

StructuringGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER

4Global

M&A

activity

in

healthcare

has

surged

(volumes

+41%YoY12)alongside

a

continued

push

for

innovation

as

large-cappharma

companies

look

for

the

next

breakthrough

treatment

and

private

equity

activity

continues

to

accelerate.

In

the

backhalf

of2025,we

saw

a

notable

uptick

in

mega

M&A

activity

(Hologic’s

$18.3bn13

saleto

Blackstone

and

TPG;

Avidity

Biosciences’$12bn14

sale

to

Novartis

AG;

Metsera’s

$10bn15

sale

to

Pfizer;Cidara

Therapeutics’

$9.2bn16

sale

to

Merck).We

expect

companieswill

continue

to

leverage

M&A

to

diversify

their

portfolios

and

secure

enhanced

capabilities

amid

rising

demand

and

rapidscientificadvances.We

saw

a

significant

wave

of

global

industrials

M&A

activity

in

2025

(volumes

+49%

YoY17)

as

companies

similarly

focus

onacquiring

enhanced

capabilities

to

improve

positioning

across

attractive

growth

markets.

Baker

Hughes’

$13.6bn18

acquisitionof

Chart

Industries

and

Boyd

Corporation’s

$9.5bn19

sale

of

its

Thermal

business

to

Eaton

underscore

this

theme.

In

2026,

weexpect

to

see

robust

activity

driven

by

the

growing

demand

for

electrification,energy

transition,

and

infrastructure

to

supportcontinued

AI

investment.We

also

saw

a

notable

uptick

in

natural

resources

activity—with

global

volumes

+26%

YoY20

(Anglo

American’s

$53bn21

mergerofequalswithTeck

Resources

Limited;

Black

HillsCorporation’s

$15bn22

mergerwith

NorthWestern

Energy;and

NRG

EnergyInc.’s

$12bn23

acquisition

of

LS

Power).We

expect

supply-demand

imbalances

for

essential

commodities

and

critical

minerals,accelerating

AI-related

infrastructure

investments,and

a

growing

premium

for

scale

will

continue

to

fuel

strategic

dealmakingacross

the

sector.TotalVolumesYoY

+45%MegaM&AVolumesYoY+108%SponsorM&AVolumesYoY+57%

+38%+241%+59%

+43%+385%+38%RedefiningGlobal

IndustriesWhile

technological

innovation

remains

a

core

catalyst

for

transformative

M&A,

the

drive

to

unlock

value

and

growth

in

the

currentenvironment

is

universal—reshaping

strategies

and

competitive

dynamics

across

every

sector.

In

EMEA

and

certain

parts

of

APAC,where

AI

innovation

is

less

mature,acquirers

are

pursuing

new

opportunities

across

adjacent

sectors—from

advanced

biopharmaplatformstoenergy-transition

infrastructure.GlobalM&AVolumes

HoveratAll-Time

Highs11NaturalResources

Industrials

HealthcareGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGERAMEREMEAAPAC5OPTIMIZING

FOR

SUCCESS:CORPORATE

SEPARATION

ACTIVITYIn2025,

M&Aactivity

has

repeatedthe

pattern

of

the

past

decade:The“conglomeratediscount”persists

in

publicmarkets.

In

fact,separations

continue

togenerate

blendedaverageexcessshareholderreturns

post-closefor

RemainCosandNewCos.26

Global

corporate

separationactivity

has

continued

to

accelerate

(+38%27

on

a

completed

deal

value

basis)

as

large-capcorporatesfocuson

diversifyingportfolios

both

to

examine

the

value

ofexisting

businesses

and

to

generate

capitalfor

strategic

growth.As

they

increasinglyleverage

simplification

activity

to

gain

focus,activist

investors

have

been

particularlydemanding—attempting

to

catalyze

actionthemselves

by

pushing

for

separations

orexerting

their

influence

on

the

newly

createdcompany

post-separation.+38%YoYglobalcorporateseparationactivityon

acompleteddealvaluebasis28Rising

tariffs

and

a

more

fractured

global

trade

environmentare

forcing

companies

to

rethink

how—and

where—they

grow.Cross-borderactivity

has

been

particularlyactive

inAPAC,wherecompanies

areexpanding

beyondtheirdomestic

marketstoenhancetechnologicalcapabilities.

InJapan,

DaimlerTruckandToyota

Motors’mergerof

Mitsubishi

Fuso

and

Hino

Motorshascreatedacommercialvehicle

leaderwith

scaleto

accelerate

autonomous,electric,and

hydrogen

technologies

across

the

industry.24

Looking

ahead,

as

organicexpansion

becomes

increasingly

difficult,we

expect

more

companies

to

rely

onbothcross-borderand

intra-regional

movestosecuregrowth

and

strengthencompetitive

positioning.In

EMEA,companies

are

turning

to

regional

consolidation—particularlyin

more

fragmented

sectors

like

industrials

and

regional

banks—whencross-borderexpansion

becomes

morecomplexor

lesscost-effective.Overall

momentum

inthe

region

isalso

beingdriven

byoutsizedambitions

to

build

larger,

more

resilient

regional

players

capable

ofmeeting

increasingly

highsustainabilityandtechnologicaldemands.24%believegeopoliticalshiftswillbringincreasedfocusondomesticmarkets.25GOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER6GP-led

secondaries,

most

prominently

continuation

vehicles

(CVs),

have

emerged

as

a

core

liquidity

solution

for

high-quality

private

assets,with

global

secondaries

volumes

nearing

~$200bn

in2025

(vs.

~$40–45bn

a

decade

ago).32

These

private

equity

funds

are

created

to

holdandgrowexisting

portfoliocompanies

managed

bya

sponsorwhile

providing

optional

proceeds

to

underlying

limited

partners

seeking

anexit.Given

high

returns,top-performing

businesses

no

longer

requirefullexitsto

maximizevaluefor

LPs

within

a

rigidly

defined

window—yettheystill

requirecapitalforgrowth

and

liquidity.The

viability

of

these

structures

has

changed

perceptions

around

traditional

holdingperiods—offering

sponsors

and

LPs

liquidity,continued

governance,

and

extended

value

creation.

The

concept

of

staying

private“forever”has

shifted

from

a

hypothetical

to

credible

strategic

model.Inturn,

CVs

have

becomesophisticated

platformsforoptimizingoutcomes.

In

August,

GI

Partners’CV

for

Flexential,33

a

leading

provider

ofcolocation

and

data

center

interconnect

capacity,signaled

this

shift—illustrating

that

CVs

can

be

a

viable

alternative

to

an

IPO

or

sale.GrowthinGlobalGP-LedSecondariesExpectedtoContinuein202634

GP-LedSecondariesVolume

($mn)ContinuationVehiclesasa

%

of

Total

Sponsor

Portfolio

Company

Exit

Volume16%With

improvedaccesstoattractivefinancing,

morecompaniesarestaying

privatefor

longer,avoidingthevolatility

andcomplexities

of

the

public

market.While

the

United

Statescontinues

to

anchor

global

private

market

activity—withheightenedcapitaldeployment,adeepening

bench

ofinstitutional

investors

and

alternative

asset

managers,and

newcapital

structures

broadening

the

market’s

structural

abilities—EMEA

is

also

becoming

more

active.We

expect

modernizedregulations,

maturing

capital

pools,and

heightened

sponsorappetite

to

fuel

private

market

expansion

in

the

region.Sponsors,sittingatopelevated

levels

of

dry

powder

andunrealized

value,are

working

to

both

deploy

capital

at

scaleand

managethetimingandexecutionof

exits.

Larger,

morecomplextransactionsare

increasingly

prevalentassponsorsleverageexpandedfinancingoptionsand

innovative

dealstructures.Take-privateactivity

in

particular

hasexpandedin

scope

and

ambition

(+31%global

volumes

YoY)31—allowing

financial

sponsors

to

recapitalize,

reorganize,andreposition

newly

privatecompanies

by

removing

publicmarket

headwinds.At

the

same

time,the

realization

ofexisting

portfolios

is

accelerating

as

strategic

sales

and

partialdivestments

provide

liquidity

for

sponsors

to

distribute

tolimited

partners

or

recycle

into

higher-growth

investments.9%10%14%13%PrivateMarketsatthe

EpicenterofDealmakingPrivate

capital

has

moved

to

the

center

of

M&A

dealmaking—redefining

the

art

of

the

possible

forfinancingand

broadercapital

marketssolutions.202020212022

202320242025E2026EGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER51%believetheiraccesstoprivate

capitalwillhavemoderateto

highimpactontheirM&Adecision-making

in2026.29+31%2026

GLOBAL

M&A

SURVEYBythe

NumbersGlobaltake-private

volumesYoY306%$686%$35$132$110$52$57$717“Diversification

amonginstitutionalinvestors

andnewfund

structures

areexpanding

accesstoprivatemarkets—allowingmorefirmstoleverageinnovative

solutions

todrivegrowth

and

adapttoevolvingmarketdynamics.”HaideeLee|GlobalCo-Head

of

Sponsor

M&AGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGER

8Private

EquityPrivateCreditKeyfocusareasKeyfocusareasDeployingcapitalatscalewhile

managingthetimingandexecution

ofexits.Capitalizingon

restrictionsoftraditional

lenders

byofferingtailoredsolutionswithfasterexecutionand

moreflexibletime

periods.WhattowatchLargeconsortiumandco-underwritetransactionsunderpinningmegadeals,and

GP-led

secondaries—most

prominently

CVs

leveraged

tohold

high-performing

assets

longer—providing

liquidity

to

LPs

andmaintaining

exposure

to

growth

initiatives.WhattowatchInvestorscontinuingtodemandattractive

risk-adjustedreturnsand

portfoliodiversificationtodrive

momentum.SovereignWealth

FundsRetailCapitalKeyfocusareasKeyfocusareasLargecapital

reservesenablingstrategicstakesthatcan

influenceDemandfordiversificationdriving

increasedconsiderationof

retailaccessto

private

marketsthroughselectfunds,including401(k)s.38Purpose-driveninvestorstargetingtransformativesectorsand

mobilizinglarge-scale,durablecapitaltodriveoutsizeinfluence.WhattowatchEvolving

regulatoryframeworksfurtherenabling

pathsto

previously inaccessible

markets.Institutional

InvestorsFamilyOfficesKeyfocusareasKeyfocusareasDriving

long-termcapitalappreciationto

matchorBypassingtraditionalfundstructurestoinvestexceedgrowthof

liabilities,with

liquiditysecureddirectlyorco-investalongsideGPs,

prioritizingthrough

publicallocations.speedand

control.WhattowatchWhattowatchPensionfundsandinsurancecompanies—alreadyat

private

marketGainingexposurethroughthe

private

markets,allocation

limits—seekingtoincreasecapsoractively

manageparticularlyininfrastructureinvestmentsthatportfolios

(e.g.,through

portfolio

sales

on

secondary

market)tofree

upcapitalfor

new

privateinvestments.supportthedevelopmentofAI.With

morecapitalcomesa

morediversified

ecosystem

of

market

participants

eager

to

tap

into

theco-investmentspace.Privateequity,

privatecredit,and

privately

heldassets

in

infrastructure

and

real

estate

are

projected

to

grow

from

$15tn

today

to

$23tnby2029.35

Private

equity

alone

has

grown

to

represent

~40%

of

the

M&A

market,

while

private

credit—a

$2.1tn

asset

class

that

is

expected

tomore

than

double

by2030—continues

to

gain

steam,fueled

by

borrowers’increased

desire

for

flexibility.36

Infrastructure

funds

are

deployinglong-durationcapitalthat

helps

broadenthescopeof

opportunities

in

both

core

and

emerging

markets.The

recent

sale

of

Electronic

Artsto

PIF,Silverlake

Partners,andAffinity

Partnersfor

$55bnalso

reflects

an

influx

of

sovereign

wealth

funds—increasingly

acting

as

lead

ratherthan

passive

investors.37

Large

family

offices

borne

out

of

innovation-era

wealth

have

added

new

and

vast

pools

of

capital

to

the

funding

mix.There

is

no

shortage

of

private

capital

to

be

deployed,

and

new

entrants

are

increasingly

leveraging

hybrid

capital

solutions

to

do

so—but

it’simperative

that

the

source

and

structure

align

with

a

company’s

strategic

goals.approaches

opportnd

breadthtoemergingunities.Thedepth

aofprivate

maarereflected

inrketinvestorstheirvaryingGOLDMAN

SACHS

2026

GLOBAL

M&A

OUTLOOK:

THINK

BIG,

BUILD

BIGGERglobal

markets.Whattowatch本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:619989下载,文档Id:998800,下载日期:2026-02-099Structured

high-gradesolutionsareempoweringcorporatesto

fund

large-scaleCapExandacquisitionsamidan

unprecedentedglobal

demandfor

financing—at

alower

cost

of

capital

and

while

maintaining

investment-grade

credit

ratings.

Low-cost,

long-durationsourcesof

privatecapital—particularly

insurersand

infrastructureequity

sponsors—have

become

critical

when

partnering

with

large,

investment-

gradecorporatestodeploycapitalaway

from

unsecured

debt

into

higher-yieldinginvestment-gradestructures.These

bespoke

solutions

solve

for

a

broad

set

of

strategic

and

financial

objectives:delivering

non-dilutivecapitalthatqualifiesfor

bothaccountingand

rating-agencyequity

treatment;

providing

the

ability

to

either

fully

consolidate

or

deconsolidate

thestructure;creating

an

attractive

cost

of

capital—substantially

cheaper

than

equitybut

at

a

premium

to

unsecured

debt;

permitting

issuers

to

preserve

full

operationalcontrolof

underlyingassets;and

incorporatingformula-based

buyback

provisionsthat

cap

investor

upside,ensuring

alignment

over

the

investment

cycle.

While

thesesolutions

have

become

more

prominent

for

data

center

financing,their

applicationspans

sectors

and

use

cases.

In

September,

Sumitomo

Corporation,

SMBC

AviationCapital,Apollo,and

BrookfieldacquiredAir

LeaseCorporation,the

first-evertransaction

inwhicha

high-gradecapitalsolutionwith

insurance

capital

was

usedtofund

public

company

M&A.39FromtheAI

infrastructure

build-outandglobalenergytransitionto

reshoring,trillions

of

CapEx

dollars

must

be

spent

inthe

nextfive

years.Structured

high-grade

solutions

will

be

critical

to

funding

these

ambitious

growthprojects—leveraging

third-party

capital

in

addition

to

corporate

cash

flows

andbalance

sheets.We

expect

these

structures

will

be

used

to

monetize

existing

assetsor

business

lines—allowing

corporates

to

deleverage

balance

sheets

and

potentiallyfree

up

cash

for

redeployment

into

growth

areas.For

buy-side

acquisition

financing,

bespokestructuresallow

investment-gradecorporatesto

raisethird-partycapitalata

lower

(debt-like)costwitha

capped

upside

and

alsoto

improve

returns

fortraditionalequity

partners.

Keurig

Dr.

Pepper,forexample,

lowered

its

leverageandoverall

debt

levels

when

buying

JDE

Peet’s

by

tapping

asset-backed

JV

financing

forits

coffee

pod