高盛-微创机器人(2252.HK)、精锋医疗：中国手术机器人：开拓美国以外的全球市场带来核心增长推动力；首次覆盖标的均评为买入（摘要）-20260421

2026年4月21日|9:51PMHKT我们首次覆盖以微创机器人和精锋医疗为代表的中国手术机器一个稀缺的结构性增长板块、拥有已获验证的复合增长模式，而非一科技题材。在我们覆盖领域中，手术机器人是少数将持续高速增长与资本设备+经常性耗材+服务的可靠商业模式相结合的子行业之一，直觉外科公司(IntuitiveSurgical)数十年来的价值创造及其约1,700亿美元的市值就是明证。我们认为向美国以外的海外市场扩张是主要增长引擎，驱动因率不足，而且产品普及得益于中国手术机器人的临床表现与达芬奇手术机器人(daVinci)不相上下、总拥有成本明显更低，并因灵活配置和远程手术能力而拥有平台级差异化优势。我们看到多个关键的美国以外海外市场足以支持未来5-10年的增长，支撑因素包括医院数量庞大、微创手术量增长、机器人渗透率远低于美国敏感性。我们预计到2035年，微创机器人和精锋医疗将斩获5.4%和4.1%的全球潜在市场份额。参见我们发表的研报中国医疗科技的出海之路：评估手术机器人行国手术机器人市场将从2026年起重新加速；同时，领军企业将凭借更早的商业化、更我们看好微创机器人（买入因为这家中国的手术机器人平台外海外市场早期增长机遇的最有利地位，可充分利用上海微创医业和服务基础设施。同时，我们也看好精锋医疗（买入），该单多孔一体化平台战略脱颖而出，并通过由经销商主导执行的方式加速海外扩微创机器人（买入|2252.HK|市值：45亿美元|目标价：45.0港元|上32%）作为中国手术机器人行业的先行企业，微创机器人正借助上海微的全球商业和服务基础设施来加快海外注册、商业化及售后支人处在最有利的地位，能够捕捉美国以外海外市场的早2025-2028年期间公司销售额将年均复合增长65%至人民币25亿元；2025-2035年期间将年均复合增长40%，到2035年时达到人民币161亿元；预计2026年净利润将达到潘英龙,CFA+852-2978-7993|chris.pan@+852-2978-0526|ziyi.chen@江欣禅,Ph.D.+852-2978-1126|kaylee.jiang@信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国盈亏平衡，2035年净利润有望达到人民币43亿元，净利润率为27%。我们基于2035年贴现现金流计算的目标价为45港元，隐含32%的上行空间。精锋医疗（买入|2675.HK|市值：28亿美元|目标价：81.0港元|上行空间：45%）快速的技术迭代保障了可靠的产品质量，独具一格的“单多孔一体化”平点，支持了更广泛的临床覆盖、更高的设备利用率和更清晰的变现路径。2025年国内新增订单量排名第一，而且公司通过由经销商主2025-2028年期间公司销售额将年均复合增长64%，到2028年时达到人民币20亿元；2025-2035年期间将年均复合增长39%，到2035年时达到人民币123亿元；预计2026年净利润将达到盈亏平衡，2035年净利润有望达到人民币34亿元，净利润率为28%。我们基于贴现现金流计算的目标价为81.0港元，隐含45%的上行空间。图表1:WeexpectMicroPortMedbotandEdgeMedicalsalestogrowat65%/64%CAGRover2026E-28EtoreachRmb2,488mn/2,018mn...)SalesofMicroPortMedbotandEdgeMedical,2023-2028E(Rmb)MicroPortMedbotEdgeMedical2,4882,0181,7531,3941,1163,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000202420252026E2027E2028E869456551160202310548257图表3:Chinamarketshareofbothcompaniestograduallyincreaseto20%+in2035E...Chinamarketshare(bynewlypurchasevolume)estimatesMicroPortMedbotEdgeMedical30%25%20%26%23%25%20%17%19%20%17%15%16%17%15%15%10%5%0%2026E2027E2028E2035E图表2:...andexpectthetwocompaniestoreachbreakevenin2026ENetprofitofMicroPortMedbotandEdgeM-213-213-219-642-1,012MicroPortMedbotEdgeMedical6004002000-200-400-600-800-1,000-1,2002023202420252026E2027E2028E-89-25035113915223274图表4:...andseefaster-than-domesticgrowthinoverseas(ex-US/CN)marketshareOverseas(ex-US/CN)marketshare(bynewlypurchasevolume)estimatesMedbotMedbotEdgeMedical11%9%0%2026E2027E2028E2035EMicroPort10%8%25%20%15%10%5%23%17%8%6%2026年4月21日22026年4月21日3图表5:Overseasrevenuecontributiontoincreasetoc.80%levelin2028E...Overseasrevenuecontribution78%78%73%73%60%20252026E81%78%2028E81%78%2027E90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%40%21%2024MicroPortMedbotEdgeMedical20%0%2023图表7:EndoscopicsurgicalrobotofMicroPortMedbot(Toumai)图表6:...andconsumablesrevenuecontributionwillcontinuetoincreaseConsumablesrevenuecontributionEdgeEdgeMedical21%17%13%15%11%8%2026E2027E2028EMicroPortMedbot11%5%7%4%2024202525%20%15%10%5%0%0%2023图表8:EndoscopicsurgicalrobotofEdgeMedical2026年4月21日4MicroPortMedbot(2252.HK):LeadingChineseplayer(bydomesticinstalledbase);Leveragingparent’soverseascommercialinfrastructure,initiateatBuy2252.HK12mPriceTarget:HK$45Price:HK$34.14Upside:31.8%Marketcap:HK$34.9bn/$4.5bnEnterprisevalue:HK$34.7bn/$4.43mADTV:HK$221.0mn/$28.3mnChinaChina&KoreaMedtech&ServicesM&ARank:3Leasesincl.innetdebt&EV?:YesRevenue(Rmbmn)NewRevenue(Rmbmn)OldEBITDA(Rmbmn)EPS(Rmb)NewDividendyield(%)CROCI(%)551.1(89.6)(0.24)47.912/26E1,116.20.0167.023.112/27E1,753.5271.30.1546.239.312/28E2,488.4519.90.3487.528.552.012/256/26E12/26E6/27EEPS(Rmb)(0.14)(0.01)0.02Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates,FacMicroPortMedbotcombinesoverseasexecution,domesticscaleleadership,andearlytechnologyadoption.LeveragingtheMicroPortGroup’sestablishedglobalinfrastructure,Medbothasacceleratedoverseasexpansionviaahubandspokemodel,achievingregistrationsinc.60countriesandc.170cumulativeoverseasordersasofMar2026.Domestically,itremainsatop3player,with16%shareofnationalbiddingin2025andthelargestinstalledbaseamongChinesepeers(46cumulativeinstallationsasofMar2026),despiteprioritizingoverseasgrowthin2025.Complementingthisscaleadvantage,Medbotisanearlymoverinemergingtechnologies,includingbeingthefirstdomesticplayerapprovedfortelesurgeryandadvancingAIenabledautomation,reinforcingitsmediumtermleadershippositioning.WeexpectsalestogrowataCAGRof65%over2025-2028EtoreachRmb2.5bn,anda40%CAGRover2025-2035EtoreachRmb16.1bnby2035E;netmargintobreak-evenin2026E,andNPtoreachRmb4.3bnin2035EatNMof27%.WeinitiateMicroPortMedbotatBuy,witha12-mTPofHK$45.0.InvestmentthesisnStrongoverseasexpansioncapacitywiththegroup’sestablishedinfrastructures:MedbothasbeenleveragingMicroPortgroup’sestablishedoverseascommercialinfrastructure,ratherthanrelyingongreenfieldbuild-out.Underthegroup’sdual-trackstrategy(domestic+overseas),Medbottapsthegroup’s“HeadquarterGoing-abroadPlatform”andahub-and-spokeapproach(usingcorecountries/regionsashubstoradiatetosurroundingmarkets),whichmeaningfullylowerschannelbuildcosts,acceleratesregulatoryandmarketaccess,andimprovespost-salescoverageandtrainingefficiency.Asaresult,MicroPortMedbot’soverseasexpansionhasbeenvalidatedinthepast2years.Withregistrationin60+countriesandremotesurgeryapprovedin10+countries,Medbothassecuredc.170overseasordersasofMar2026,including100+overseasordersin2025alone.Thecompanyplanstoaddapproximately2026年4月21日5100employeestoitsoverseasteam,bringingtotalheadcounttoaround200–300.nLeadingdomesticplayerwiththelargestinstalledbaseamongChinesepeers.MicroPortMedbotholdsatop3marketpositioninChina,with16%shareoftotalnationalbiddingin2025(c.30%amongdomesticbrands)and46cumulativeinstallationsasofMar2026,rankingNo.1amongdomesticcompetitors.Thisunderscoresitsearlymoveradvantageininstalledbase,clinicalvalidationandtrainingfootprint.Whilenewdomesticordersin2025trailedEdgeMedical’s(17vs.22systems),weviewthisprimarilyasarefiectionofMedbot’sstrategicprioritizationofoverseasexpansion,ratherthanadeteriorationindomesticcompetitiveness.Asprocurementdecisionsincreasinglyshifttowardoutcomeandvaluebasedassessments,weexpectscaledplayerswithprovenclinicaltrackrecordsandentrenchedhospitalrelationships—suchasMedbot—tocontinuetoanchorthedomesticcompetitivelandscape.nEarlymoverinadoptingandvalidatingemergingtechnologytrends.Complementingitsinstalledbaseleadership,Medbothasbeenproactiveinexploringnextgenerationtechnologies,positioningitselfaheadofdomesticpeers.Itwasthefirstdomesticplayertoreceiveapprovalfortelesurgery,enablingearlierbrandbuildingandtrainingnetworkdevelopment,andhasbegunexploringAIenabledautomation,completingtheworld’sfirstlargemodelautonomoussurgeryanimalexperimentinDecember2025.Whilecommercializationremainsatanearlystage,theseinitiativesstrengthenMedbot’stechnologyroadmapandreinforceitsmediumtermleadershippositioning.nSteadyprogressforothertypesofsurgicalrobots,albeitlimitedneartermrevenuecontribution:SkyWalker,Orthopedicrobots,achievingasteadygrowthinoverseassales,withglobalcumulativeordersnowreachingover65units;R-ONE,avascularinterventionalrobotinthepanvasculardomainthroughinternationalcooperation,approvedbytheNMPAinDecember2023,achievedcommercialinstallationsinsixleadinghospitalsincludingZhongshanHospital,FudanUniversity;UniPath(Trans-bronchialrobots),obtainedNMPAapprovalinDecember2025andstartedcommercialization.FinancialhighlightsnFY26guidance:Operationally,managementtargets200+newinstallationsinFY26,withrevenuescaleofoverRmb1,100mn,+100%growth,amongwhich80%willcomefromoverseassales.Onthisbasis,managementguidedthebusinesstoturnprofitableatthefull-yearlevel,withgrossmargincontinuingtoimproveto55%assalesscaleup.nWeexpectasalesCAGRof65%over2025-2028EtoreachRmb2.5bn,primarilydrivenby:1)overseasexpansion,withnewlypurchasedvolumesreachingc.260setsin2028Ewithstabilizingpricing,andanincreaseto81%in2028Einoverseasrevenueexposurefrom73%in2025;2)leadershipinthedomesticmarketwithclearerpolicyandquotarelease,andweexpectitsToumaiseriestoreach17%2026年4月21日6marketshare(byvolume)in2028E.nWeseemarginsimproving,drivenby:1)increasingoperatingleverage,2)productmixupgrade,3)overseasexpansion:oWeexpectgrossmarginstoimprovefrom48%in2025to57%in2028Eand61%in2035Edrivenby:1)increasingoperatingleverageasthelaparoscopicbusinessscales,withhigherrevenuecontributionfromconsumables;2)amorefavorableproductmixtowarditshigher-marginToumairevenueincreaseversuslower-marginorthopedicrobots;3)risingcontributionfromoverseassales,wheregrossmarginsareslightlyhigherthanforthedomesticmarket.oWithimprovingmarginsandscaleeffects,weexpectthecompanytoreachbreakevenin2026E:Weexpectthecompanytoreachbreakevenby2026E,andournetincomeestimatesareRmb11mn/152mn/351mnin2026E/27E/28E,correspondingtoanetmarginof1%/9%/14%.nRelativetoBloombergconsensus,ourrevenueforecastsarebroadlyaligned(-1%/+1%forFY26/27),whileourreportedNPestimatesofRMB11mn/RMB152mnaremateriallybelowconsensusatRMB43mn/RMB274mn,refiectingourassumptionofcontinuedsellingexpenseinvestmenttodrivemarketsharegains.图表9:SalesCAGRat65%over2025-28E2022-2028Esales,RmbmnSales384%Sales384%146%114%2,8002,4002,00080040002,48842%2028E1,75357%2027E103%2026E551202525720242023y/ygrowth222022图表10:Assalesscale,weexpecttheexpenseratiotoimprove…SellingSellingexpenses%R&Dexpenses%Adminexpenses%202420252026E2027E2028E80%60%40%20%0%2024-2028Eexpensesratio2026年4月21日7图表11:…andoverseasrevenueasakeydriver…Overseasrevenueexposure,%40%20%40%20%2023202420252026E2027E2028E90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%78%73%81%81%图表13:Weexpectthecompanytoreachbreakevenin2026E5005000-500-1,000-1,50020223512028E2027E2026E-2502025-1,0122023-64220242022-2028Enetprofit,Rmbmn图表12:…withimprovingmargins...GrossGrossmarginEBITDAmarginNetmargin202420252026E2027E2028E50%0%-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%-300%2024-2028Emarginprofile图表14:Consumablesandservicerevenuerampinguptoc.30%in28E100%100%31%80%60%40%69%20%0%20234%8%21%67%2028E3%13%79%2026E5%17%74%2027E8%11%79%202519%5%77%2024SystemConsumbables&AccessoriesServicesOthers2023-2028Erevenuebreakdown,%4%5%1%Valuationandscenarioanalysis12-mtargetpriceofHK$45.0basedon2035EDCFOur12-mTPofHK$45isbasedonDCFvaluation,with9%WACCand3%terminalgrowth(consistentwithourmedtech&servicecoverage),andwithkeyassumptions:1)WeassumetheglobalTAMtoreachUS$42bnby2035,withUS$19bnforOUS,andwithapenetrationrateofsurgicalrobotassistedsurgeriestoreach12mn;2)Medbottoacquire23%ofnewlypurchasedvolumes(ex-US)giventhat’stheirkeymarket,correspondingto12%ofrevenueshare(ex-US);3)Medbot’snetmargintoreach27%by2035E,slightlybelowISRG’s28%asofFY25,whereweassumethepricingdiscountisoffsetbythelowercoststructureinChina.OurTPimplies39x/25x/17xforP/Sfor2026E/2027E/2028E.2026年4月21日8图表15:OurDCFderivedtargetpriceofHK$45.0,implies32%upsideTargetPriceClosePriceTargetPriceClosePriceUpside45.034.132%Rmb,Mn2025A2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035ERevenueGrossProfitas%ofrevenueSellingexpenses%ofrevenueAdminexpenses%ofrevenueR&Dexpenses%ofrevenueEBITy%OperatingmarginAddback:sharebasedpaymentexpensesLess:TaxesTaxrateNOPATNetMarginDepreciation&amortization%ofrevenueCapitalexpenditures%ofrevenueChangesinworkingcapitalas%ofrevenue551114%2678%(204)37%(46)8%(216)39%(199)-59%-36%42-0%(156)-28%75-6%(3)-93%-1%(39)165%%1,116103%61655%(290)26%(70)(232)21%24-112%2%46(2)6863-16%(79)2548%-7%(125)220%-11%1,75357%97656%(437)25%(101)(250)682%51(28)2117824%4%(123)57%-7%(28)-78%-2%2,48842%1,42357%(596)24%(140)(268)419123%56(63)4129623%4%(150)22%-6%(190)591%-8%3,43938%1,98458%(824)24%(189)5%(288)8%68363%20%62(102)64339%4%(251)67%-7%(77)-60%-2%4,65535%2,75559%(1,115)24%(255)5%(310)1,07557%23%68(161)98221%3%(201)-20%-4%(286)271%-6%6,17433%3,71660%(1,478)24%(338)5%(333)5%1,56546%25%75(235)1,40523%5%3%(181)-10%-3%(155)-46%-3%8,03330%4,85060%(1,924)24%(440)5%(350)4%2,13636%27%82(320)1,89824%4%2%(181)0%-2%(337)118%-4%10,27928%6,23861%(2,431)24%(512)5%(367)4%2,92737%28%90(439)2,57925%3%2%(182)0%-2%(255)-24%-2%12,94326%7,89361%(3,022)23%(580)4%(386)3%3,90533%30%99(586)3,41926%2%(182)0%-1%(437)-3%16,070249,832(3,752)23(720)4(405)34,9552731%(743)4,32127%21(182)0(350)-20-2Unleveredfreecashflow(123)(71)1381684496461,2291,5462,3122,9743,966-76%-42%-294%21%167%44%90%26%50%29%33DiscountTerminalValueEnterpriseEquityEquityEquityRate3.0%ValueNetCashValueValueValue%Rmb,mnRmb,mnRmb,mnRmb,mnUS$,mnHK$,mn9.00%34,91442,98825143,2395,92346,266Debt389Cash640SharesSharesoutstanding1,031ClosepriceasofApr17th20262026年4月21日9图表16:KeyassumptionsbehindournumbersYear2026E2027E2028E2035E26-35ECAGRAssumptionsOperatingdataChinarevenueofToumai2633692,35332%System2161,06827%oftotal45ToumainewlypurchaseSet+20528%%ofvolumeshare(China)23%Domesticbid-winrategraduallyincreaseto20%+levelEx-factoryASP5.2DomesticsystemASPslightlydecreaseToumaiinstalledbaseSet9787933%Asinstalledbaseandutilizationrampup,consumables'contributionwillincreaseConsumables&Accessories4789539%oftotal24%27%28%SurgeriesperinstallmentProcedureBlendedutilizationtoincreaseasrecentinstallationsenterintomatureoperationASPpersurgeryRmb'0006.9TheASPpersurgerytoremainrelativelysteady,butlowerthanoverseasService204838939%oftotalAnnualservicefeepersystem0.7AnnualservicefeetoremainrelativelysteadyOverseasrevenueofToumai8671,4142,01813,14635%System7581,1371,4565,94226%oftotal45ToumainewlypurchaseSet+255+104226%%ofvolumeshare(ex-US/CN)23%Overseasvolumesharegraduallyincreaseto20%+levelEx-factoryASPRmb$mn5.7ToumaiinstalledbaseSet2004006554,83442%Consumables&Accessories2304234,983oftotal21%SurgeriesperinstallmentProcedureBlenedutilizationtoincreaseasrecentinstallationsenterintomatureoperationASPpersurgeryRmb'000TheASPpersurgerytoremainrelativelysteadyAsinstalledbaseandutilizationrampup,consumables'contributionwillincreaseService8472,222oftotalAnnualservicefeepersystemFinancials0.7AnnualservicefeetoremainrelativelysteadyLowerGMbusinessdragtheGMslightlybehindEdgeMed,graduallyimprovedto60%+Totalrevenue1,1161,7532,48816,07034%55.2%55.7%57.2%61.2%SG&A%32.2%30.7%29.6%27.8%LeverageMicroPortGroupresource,slightlydecreasebutremains>25%(lowerthanEdgeMed)20.8%2.5%Assalesscaleup,theR&D%tograduallydecrease8.7%26.7%Toreachbreakevenin2026E,andNMtograduallyincreaseto27%in2035E3514,288图表17:Bull/bearscenariosScenarioforvaluation:MicroPortMedbot(2252.HK)ValuationmethodImpliedvalue/share(HK$)UpsideValuation(US$mn)KeyassumptionsImpliedP/S2026BearcaseBasecaseBullcase2027eP/SDCFbasedDCFbased23.845.054.0-30%32%58%3,7575,9237,108Applying15xP/SmultiplereferencingIntuitiveSurgicals'slast6monthsto2027erevenueofRmb1.7bn,discountbackat9%.BearcaseimpliesMedbot'smarketshareat2.7%byrevenueandoverseasmarketofnewlypurchasedvolumestayflattishAssumingMedbot'srevenueshareofglobalTAMtoexpandto5.4%in2035efrom0.7%in2025,implying40%revenueCAGR,and27%netmarginby2035e.Applying9%WACCand3%terminalgrowthrate(consistentwithourmedtechandservicecoverage)AssumingMedbot'srevenueshareofglobalTAMtoexpandto6.7%in2035efrom0.7%in2025,implying43%revenueCAGRand27%netmarginby2035e.Applying9%WACCand3%terminalgrowthrate(consistentwithourmedtechandservicecoverage)20.6x38.9x46.6x202724.7x29.7x 20289.2x17.4x20.9x2026年4月21日10图表18:Medbottradesat21xP/SMicroportMicroportMedbot(2252.HK)12mfwdPSavg+1STD-1STD+1STD,57.6xavg,35.5x20.9x-1STD,13.4x90.0x80.0x70.0x60.0x50.0x40.0x30.0x20.0x10.0x0.0xSep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25Mar-26图表20:ISRGtradeat56xP/EonitsearningsvisibilityIntuitiveIntuitiveSurgical(ISRG)12mfwdPEAvg+1STD-1STDMar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-2680.0x75.0x70.0x65.0x60.0x55.0x50.0x45.0x40.0x35.0x30.0xAvg,55.5x-1STD,46.8x48.8x图表19:vsISRG’s15xP/Soverlast5yearsIntuitiveSurgicalIntuitiveSurgical(ISRGUS)12mfwdPSAvg+1STD+1+1STD,18.3xAvg,15.5x+1STD,12.6xSTDMar-265.0xMar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-2525.0x20.0xM&ArankWeassignanM&Arankof3toMicroPortMedbot,indicatingalowprobabilityofthecompanybeingacquired,afterconsideringbothqualitative(portfolio/operatingefficiency)andquantitativefactors(marketshare,valuation)basedonourM&Aframework.Wealsoseealowprobabilityforthecompanytobeacquiredbasedon:1)management’scommitmenttoleveragingtheMicroPortgroup’scapacityinoverseasexpansion,suchasenteringalong-termagreementwithMicroPorttoexpandsalescooperationandcontinuingexpansionofitsinfrastructure;2)parentcompanyretainingcontrol,asMicroPortGroupretains45.92%oftotalissuedshares,servingasthesinglemajorshareholder.图表21:WeassignM&Arankof3toMicroPortMedbotTickerCompanynameFinalscore(lowerscore=higherprobability)QuantitativeFactorsQualitativeFactorsGovernmentownership(Yes/No)IntentiontoSellMarketshareValuationPortfolio(1=Lesspreferred)Operatingefficiency2252.HKMicroportMedbot3No33333ShareholderstructureAsofthelatestdisclosuresuntil23Mar2026,MicroPortMedbot’sshareholding2026年4月21日11remainedconcentrated.TheMicroPortgroupholds45.92%ofthecompany’sissuedvotingshares.KeyrisksnSlower-than-expectedcommercializationandgrowthinChina:WemodelMedbot’sdomesticmarketshare(bynewpurchases)tograduallyrampupandstabilizeatc.23%in2035E,andassumethetotalquotainChinawillberampedupto900inourbasecase.Aweakersalesexecution,delaysinnewmodelapprovals,ortighter-than-expectedquotalimitscouldundermineMedbot’scompetitiveness,especiallyamidintensifyingcompetitionfromemergingSMIDplayers.Inaddition,weexpectthechargingcataloguetobeimplementedacrossprovincesoverthenext6-12months,notingthatHunanreleaseditspricinglistinApril;andadelayinpolicyrolloutcouldreduceutilizationofthecurrentinstalledbaseandweakenhospitals’willingnesstoexpandinstallations.nPotentialpatentlitigationoverseas:AsofYE2024,thecompanyhadnopatent,tradesecretsortrademarksinfringementcasesandhasbeenproactivelyexpandingandprotectingitsIPportfolio.However,asdomesticcompetitorsexpandgloballyandbegincompetingmoredirectlywithISRG,potentialIPconfiictsmayattractcloserscrutinyorlegalaction.Anylitigationcoulddelayoverseasexpansionandconstrainthegrowthincertainoverseasregions.nPotentialmarginpressurefrom:1)profit-sharingwiththeMicroPortgroup;2)multi-businessexpansion.MedbotleveragestheMicroPortgroup’soverseascommercialinfrastructuretosupportrapidexpansion,buttheassociatedprofit-sharingarrangementmaydiluteprofitability.Inaddition,lower-marginbusinessessuchasorthopedic/vascularsurgicalrobotshaveanegativeimpactonthecompanies’overallgrossmargin.Whilemanagementexpectsrevenuetobecomeincreasinglydrivenbyitshigher-marginToumaifranchise,anyslower-than-expectedramp-upinToumaiandrelatedconsumablescoulddelaymarginnormalization.2026年4月21日12图表22:FinancialsofMicroPortMedbotProfitmodel(Rmbmn)12/2512/26E12/27E12/28E2,488.4Balancesheet(Rmbmn)12/2512/26E12/27E12/28ETotalrevenue551.11,116.21,753.5Cash&equivalents640.2592.3730.9905.3Costofgoodssold(284.4)(500.3)(777.1)(1,065.5)Accountsreceivable263.8446.3669.1913.8SG&A(249.2)(359.7)(538.8)(736.1)Inventory131.7352.6378.4623.9R&D(216.0)(232.2)(249.6)(268.3)OthercurrentassetsOtheroperatingprofit/(expense)Totalcurrentassets1,035.61,391.21,778.52,443.1ei(89.6)121.3271.3519.9NetPP&E172.8190.3237.5293.5Depreciation&amortization(109.0)(97.2)(83.4)(101.4)Netintangibles2.40.1(2.2)(4.6)EBIT(198.6)24.0188.0418.6Totalinvestments14.70.00.00.0InterestincomeOtherlong-termassets59.740.435.430.4Interestexpense(19.8)(19.8)(19.8)(19.8)Totalassets1,334.61,671.52,098.72,811.8I