版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
Accessibleversion
BofAGOBARESEARCHBofASE
hlit
w】wu:es
GlobalMemoryTech
HKinvestorfeedback:tenkeytakewaysanddiscussionpoints
IndustryOverview
HKinvestors:largelybullishonmemory,particularlyNAND
WemetHongKonginvestorsthisweek,whowerebroadlybullishonmemory.Whattheinvestorssharedabouttheirviews/status:(1)mostinvestorswespokewithalready
ownedlotsofmemorystocks,butstilllookedinterestedinincreasingexposuretoSK
HynixorSamsungElectronics;(2)NANDisviewedmorefavorablythanDRAM,supportedbypriorunderinvestmentand“key-value”memorytheme;and(3)significantlyrisingFCFamongmemorychipmakers.WealsopresentedourviewsonDRAM-centricsuper-cycle(evenwithstableASPassumptions)andsomerisksforNAND.
Q1:Memorypriceoutlook
Investorexpectationsappearoverlyoptimistic,expectingfurtherpricerallythrough2Handeven2027.Ourviewisrelativelyconservative,anticipatingbroadlyflatorsingle
digit%declineafterthe3Q24-2Q26rally.Spotpriceremainedmixedthisweek-slightlydeclinedamongDDR4,NANDandSSDvsdecentreboundofDDR5.Somemodule
makersalludedthatrisingLTAsmaypreventseverespotpricecorrections(ordecentrallyparticularlyDDR5)followingchipsupplyshift(fromspottolong-termcustomers).
Q2:LTAtrends
ChipmakersdonotdiscloseLTAdetails,butweobserve2-3xmoreagreements,longerperiodandveryfavorablepricesvs2022peak;e.g.,US$10+/GB,justsingle-digit%
contractpricechangeperquarterasmax,certainvolumeby2028oreven2030.
Q3:HBM4supplydynamics:aproductioncutonthehorizon?
Wedon’tanticipateanyHBM4productiondeclineorUSordercutseither;>11Gbpssupply/demandontrack.Meanwhile,weseeslightlyhigherwaferinputforHBM3etomeetstrongerdemand.
Q4:NANDsupplytightness
True,currentlysignificantshortagepersistsintheNANDmarket.Thus,2QNANDASP
hike(e.g.,upmorethan30%+QoQ)canbehigherthanDRAM(up30%range).Thatsaid,weassumemarginalcorrections(NANDprice)inlate-2026and1H27,followingfab
utilizationincreaseandperwaferproductivityincrease(at200-300layers).Wealso
learnedthatinvestorsweretoobullishonKV/cachememory(eSSD)vslimitedconfirmedorderincreasetrends.
Q5:Newfabconstruction/impact
NewfabconstructionontrackinAsiaandUS,butitismainlyfor2028-30massproduction(mainlyDRAM/HBM;nosignforsignificantNANDcapacityexpansion).
Continuedonpage2
>>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystundertheFINRArules.
Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattakeresponsibilityfortheinformationhereininparticularjurisdictions.
BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearch
reports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof
interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage15to19.AnalystCertificationonpage13.Price
ObjectiveBasis/Riskonpage12.12960129
Timestamp:17April202607:37AMEDT
17April2026
Equity
Global
Technology
SimonWoo,CFA>>ResearchAnalyst
MerrillLynch(Seoul)+82237070554
simon.woo@
DaiShen>>
ResearchAnalyst
MerrillLynch(HongKong)
dai.shen@
VivekArya
ResearchAnalystBofAS
vivek.arya@
MikioHirakawa>>ResearchAnalyst
BofASJapan
mikio.hirakawa@
MattShin>>
ResearchAnalyst
MerrillLynch(Seoul)
matt.shin2@
Exhibit1:DDR5upthisweek,whileDDR4andNANDdeclinedfurther
Spotprices–DRAMandNAND
US$
Current
WoW
QoQ
YoY
DRAMspot
16GbDDR5
38.5
4%
10%
621%
16GbDDR4
69.2
-3%
-9%
1983%
8GbDDR4
33.0
-1%
14%
1873%
4GbDDR4
7.1
1%
28%
462%
NANDspot
1Tbwafer
25.8
-3%
44%
399%
512Gbwafer
21.0
-3%
40%
658%
256Gbwafer
10.5
-4%
51%
604%
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCHASP:Averagesellingprice
ADR:Americandepositaryreceipt
CXMT:ChangXinMemoryTechnologies
DDR4/5:4th/5thgendouble-datarateDRAMDRAM:Dynamicrandom-accessmemory
eSSD:Enterprisesolid-statedrive
Gbps/GB:Gigabitpersecond/GigabyteHBM:Highbandwidthmemory
HBM3e/4/4e:5th/6th/7thgenofHBMLTA:Long-termagreement
NAND:Not-ANDmemory
SSD:Solid-statedrive
YMTC:YangtzeMemoryTechnologiesCo.
2GlobalMemoryTech|17April2026
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Q6:Chinamemorycapacityexpansion
Westillseealargegapbetweenwafercapacity(10%+ofglobalmemorytotal)and
actualproductionvolume(low-single-digit%ofglobalsupply).True,CXMT(DRAM)andYMTC(NAND)areexpectedtoconstructonemorenewfabeachthrough2026-27,butthisdoesnotwarrantasignificantchipproductionincreaseifquality/yieldremainlow.
Q7:Samsung/Hynixearningscallpreview
Management’sadditionaleffortstostabilizechippricingthrough2Hand2027tobe
addressed;ofcourse,capexincreaseandmoreactivedividendpayments/buybacklikelytobementioned.
Q8:SkyrocketingFCFvsmarketcap
Someinvestorssuggestedthat3-yearFCF(2026-28)canbeasmuchascurrentmarketcap(ofmajorplayers);possibleifmemorypricecontinuestoriseuntil2028,inourview.
Q9:ValuationframeworkshiftfromP/BtoP/E
MoreinvestorsareusingP/Emethodology(insteadofP/B)vs6-12monthsago;50%+stockupsideisbeingdiscussedevenat10xP/Emultiple,giventhehighEPSoutlook.
Q10:Toppicks:Hynix,NanyaTech,Samsung
Company-specificcatalystsbesideslowP/E,highmarginsandsignificantFCF:
Hynix-ADR,HBM4/4e,1cnodeDRAM;
Samsung–scaleadvantageacrossconventionalDRAM/NAND;
NanyaTech-LTAswithnewstrategicinvestors(Solidigm,Kioxia,SanDisk,Cisco).
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
GlobalMemoryTech|17April20263
Quarterlyaveragecontractpricetrend
Exhibit2:DRAMcontractpricehitnew-recordhighofUS$35-40inApril
DRAMcontractprice-quarterlyaveragetrend
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
40.016GbDDR5contract
35.0US$30.0
25.020.015.010.0
5.0
-
2Q26isanestimatebyTrendForcereleasedasof16thAprilSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit4:NANDcontractalsohitalltimehighlevel;priceexpectedtohit$30levelin2Q26
NANDwafercontractprice-quarterlyaveragetrend
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
35.0512Gbwafercontract
30.0US$25.0
20.015.010.0
5.0
-
2Q26isanestimatebyTrendForcereleasedasof16thAprilSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit3:Aprilcontractpricelikelyupmorethan20%evenafter+200%in4Q25and+80%in1Q26
16GbDDR5contractprice–QoQchangetrend
16GbDDR5contract
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
QoQ
-50%
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
2Q26isanestimatebyTrendForcereleasedasof16thAprilSource:TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit5:Aprilcontractpriceupstrongly(+50%)evenafter+120-150%eachin4Q25/1Q26
NANDwafercontractprice–QoQchangetrend
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
180%QoQ160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
2Q26isanestimatebyTrendForcereleasedasof16thAprilSource:TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
4GlobalMemoryTech|17April2026
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
TSMC’supbeat1Q26resultsandstrong2026guidance
Exhibit6:Strong1Q26revenue(NT$1,134bn;+35%YoY);TSMCprovidedrobustsalesguidancein2026(up30%+YoY)
TSMC–SalesandYoYgrowth
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
NT$bnRevenueYoYgrowth(RS)
Source:Company,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit7:Upbeat1Q26margins(GM66.2%,OPM58.1%);mgmt.expectsstabletrendin2Q(GM65.5%-67.5%,OPM56.5-58.5%)TSMC–GrossmarginandOPmargintrend
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26E
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
GMOPM
Source:Company,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit8:TSMCstatedthat2026capexshouldlikelytowardsthehigh-endofitsguidance(US$52-56bn);capex-to-salesstillwithin40%
TSMC–Capexandcapex-to-salesratio
H
US$bnCapexCapex-to-sales(RS)
202120222023202420252026E
Source:Company,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARC
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
60
40
20
0
Exhibit9:Strong2026capexgrowth(up40%YoYrange)expectedforbothSamsungandTSMC
CapexcomparisonbetweenTSMCandSamsung(memoryandfoundry)
TSMCSamsung(memory)Samsung(foundry)US$bn
202120222023202420252026E
Source:Company,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
60
45
30
15
0
GlobalMemoryTech|17April20265
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
KoreaexportsandTaiwanmonthlysalesdata
Exhibit10:Record-highexportsinApr(US$8.6bn;+13%MoM),whichisaround4xhigherthan2023downturnlevel(US$2.0bnrange)
Koreasemisexports–First10daysofmonthUS$bn
10
8
6
4
2
US$bn
0
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Oct-25
Jan-26
Apr-26
Source:MoTIR
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit11:YoYgrowthstilltriple-digit%inApr(+153%);already28consecutivemonthsofpositivegrowth
Koreasemisexports–YoYchangeinfirst10daysofmonth
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Oct-25
Jan-26
Apr-26
200%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
-40%
-80%
YoY
Source:MoTIR
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit12:AllcompaniespostedsolidMoMgrowthinMar;robustrecoveryledbyTranscend(+78%),Phison(+50%),TSMC(+31%),etcTaiwantechcompanies’monthlysalesMoMgrowth(Mar-2026)
MoM
80%
60%
40%
20%
Transcend
Inventec
Compal
Quanta
MediaTek
Asustek
Lotes
Phison
ADATA
Macronix
Acer
Vanguard
NanyaPCB
HonHai
TSMC
Mitac
Innolux
Walsin
AUO
Holystone
Pegatron
Kinsus
Aspeed
Winbond
Novatek
Gigabyte
Yageo
ASE
Wistron
NanyaTech
Unimicron
PSMC
WinSemi
Powertech
UMC
Wiwynn
0%
Source:Companies
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit13:AlsostrongYoYgrowthseen,primarilyledbymemory,logic/ODMnames
Taiwantechcompanies’monthlysalesYoYgrowth(Mar-2026)
YoY
220%
180%
140%
100%
60%
20%
NanyaTech
Transcend
Phison
ADATA
Wistron
Macronix
Winbond
Quanta
Gigabyte
Aspeed
Inventec
HonHai
TSMC
Mitac
NanyaPCB
Powertech
WinSemi
Asustek
Innolux
PSMC
Kinsus
Lotes
Unimicron
Yageo
Compal
ASE
Wiwynn
MediaTek
Walsin
Vanguard
UMC
Acer
AUO
Holystone
Pegatron
Novatek
-20%
*Nanyaup560%,Transcendup381%,Phisonup221%Source:Companies
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
6GlobalMemoryTech|17April2026
Chinaimportsdata
Exhibit14:ChinasemiconductorequipmentimportsJan/FebsemisequipmentimportswereUS$2.5/1.2bn
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Oct-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Oct-23
Feb-24
Jun-24
Oct-24
Feb-25
Jun-25
Oct-25
Feb-26
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0
US$mn
Source:ChinaGeneralCustoms
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit16:Chinamonthlyintegratedcircuit(IC)importsandYoYJan/FebICimportswereUS$41/37bn,+36%/44%YoY
60US$bn80%
4540%
300%
15-40%
0-80%
ChinaICimportsYoY,RH
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Oct-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Oct-23
Feb-24
Jun-24
Oct-24
Feb-25
Jun-25
Oct-25
Feb-26
Source:ChinaGeneralCustoms
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit15:ChinasemiconductorequipmentimportsYoYJan/Febsemisequipmentimports-19%/-24%YoY
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Oct-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Oct-23
Feb-24
Jun-24
Oct-24
Feb-25
Jun-25
Oct-25
Feb-26
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Source:ChinaGeneralCustoms
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit17:ChinamonthlyICimportsbysegment
ProcessorimportswereUS$13bninFeb;memoryimportshitrecordhighat17bn
Oct-17
Mar-18
Aug-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Dec-21
May-22
Oct-22
Mar-23
Aug-23
Jan-24
Jun-24
Nov-24
Apr-25
Sep-25
Feb-26
ProcessorandControllerMemory
OtherICs
30
20
10
0
US$bn
Source:ChinaGeneralCustoms
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
GlobalMemoryTech|17April20267
Memoryspot/contractpricetrend
Exhibit18:DRAMspotpricesoftenedin2HMarchafteranexceptionallystrongrallyfromSept-25toJan-2026.DRAMpricehitthehighestlevelsinthepast25yearsasthecurrentmainstreamDRAM16GbDDR5stoodatUS$38and16GbDDR4at$75aschipmakersreallocatedproductiontoHBMand
server-gradeDRAM.PrevioushighlevelwashitinOct-17,butitwasonly$10range.
DRAMspotprice–long-termtrend(2000-2025)
16GbD4
16GbD5
0.5Gb
1Gb
0.128Gb
0.064Gb
4GbD3
2Gb
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
8GbD4
4GbD4
US$
0.25Gb
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit19:AbnormallyhighatUS$30-40/GBvspreviouspeaksof
US$10range;thus50%+downsideseentowardend-2026;correctionsalreadystartedinlateMarch
DRAMspotpriceoutlook-US$/16Gbequiv
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26E
US$16Gbequiv
DownturnUS$3
AbnormallyhighatUS$30-40;
corrections
startedfromlateMarch
NormalpriceUS$5
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source:DRAMeXchange,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit20:LikeDRAM,currentlyabnormallyhigh,thusspotpricecaneasilyfallbackin2H26;correctionsstartedinearlyApril
NANDspotpriceoutlook-US$/512Gbequiv
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26E
AbnormallyhighatUS$30;likeDRAN,correctionsstarted
BottomatUS$3
30US$
25
20
15
10
5
0
NormalUS$5
Source:DRAMeXchange,BofAGlobalResearchestimates
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
8GlobalMemoryTech|17April2026
Exhibit21:Pricesslightlyupthisweekvscorrectioninpast2
weeks,afterhittingthehighestpeaklevelof$40;broadlymutedinFeb/MarfollowingrobustrallyinOct(+70%)andNov(+60%)andJan(+25%)
16GbDDR5spotprice–daily,Aug’23-Apr‘26
40+750%
-10%
4.7
US$
-27%
3.9
42
37
32
27
22
17
12
7
2
+33%5.2
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit22:MoMgrowthdeceleratedto+10%inFebtobroadly
stableinMarandslightlydowninApr,followingJanrally(25%)vs+60-120%rangeduringOct-Nov
16GbDDR5spotmonth-averageprice–MoMchange,Aug’23-Apr‘26
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
110%
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
16GbDDR5DRAM
MoM
Exhibit23:8GbDDR4stableinMar/1H-AprbutYoYrallysignificantduetobig-3chipmakers’productioncut;pricehit$30exceeding
previoushighlevelsof$10hitinOct-17
8GbDDR4spotpricetrend,Aug’23-Apr‘26
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
34+2000%
1.4
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
40.0US$30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Exhibit25:DDR4andDDR5contractpricesaresimilaratUS$38(16Gb)–DDR5pricepremiumnolongerexistsduetoDDR4
shortage
16GbDDR5vs16GbDDR4contractpricetrend,Dec‘22-Apr‘26
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
16GbDDR4(contract)
16GbDDR5(contract)
US$
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit24:PricebroadlydowninMar/early-Aprafterhittingpeaklevelof$80,following+30-70%rallyeachinSeptoDec,aswellasinJan(+20%);priceoverallup2500%+YoYvsOct-25lowof$316GbDDR4spotpricetrend,Aug’23-Apr‘26
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
100.0US$80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Source:DRAMeXchange
16GbDDR4DRAM
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit26:DDR5andDDR4contractpriceslikelyup20-25%MoMinApr-26vsbrodlystableinMar;pricestrongthrough2H25andearly2026
16GbDDR5vs16GbDDR4contractpricechange-MoM,Dec‘22-Apr‘26
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
150%MoM16GbDDR5(contract)16GbDDR4(contract)100%
50%
0%
-50%
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
GlobalMemoryTech|17April20269
Exhibit27:NANDspotpriceslightlydownin2H-Mar/1H-AprbutstrongYTDrallyobserved–4-5xhigherthan2025bottom
512GbNANDwaferspotprice–weekly,Jan’21-Apr‘26
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Oct-25
Jan-26
Apr-26
25US$512GbwaferspotNAND
20
15
10
5
0
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit29:Currentcontractpriceat~$25,around10xvsFeb-25bottomof$2.5;pricessignificantlyupin4Q25andthrough1Q26NANDwafercontractpricetrend,Jun’23-Apr‘26
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
512Gbwafercontract
US$
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:TrendForce,DRAMeXchange,BofAGlobalResearch
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit31:16GbDDR5spotandcontractpricesareintherangeofUS$30-40vshistoricalrangeofUS$3-5
16GbDDR5spotvscontractpricetrend(US$),Jun’23-Apr‘26
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
43.016GbDDR5spot
38.0
33.0
28.0
23.0
18.0
13.0
8.0
3.0
16GbDDR5contract
US$
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit28:StableinAprvsup+15-20%inFeb/Mar-26andup+40-70%MoMinOct/Nov/Dec/Jan
512GbNANDwaferspotmonth-average–MoMchange,Apr’21-Apr‘26
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Oct-25
Jan-26
Apr-26
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
MoM512GbwaferspotNAND
Exhibit30:Mar/Aprpricelikelyup+15-20%similartoJan/Feb-26(up25-30%MoM)evenafterOct/Nov/Decupturn(up40-60%
MoM)
MoMchangeofNANDcontractprice(512Gbwafer),Jun’23-Apr‘26
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
512GbwafercontractMoMchange
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce,BofAGlobalResearch
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit32:Feb/Mar/AprpricerallymutedvsNov/Dec/Janupturn16GbDDR5spotvscontractpricetrend–MoMchange,Jun’23-Apr‘26
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
16GbDDR5spotMoM
16GbDDR5contract
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
10GlobalMemoryTech|17April2026
Exhibit33:CurrentNANDspotandcontractpricesareafewtimeshigherthan2025summerlevel
512GbNANDwaferspotvscontractpricetrend(US$),Apr’19-Apr‘26
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Apr-26
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
512Gbcontract
512Gbspot
US$
Exhibit34:NANDcontractpricesstillstrong(up20-25%MoMinFeb-Apr)evenafterstrongrallyduringOct-25–Jan-26(up40-50%per
month);spotpriceslightlymutedinApr
512GbNANDspotvscontractpricetrend–MoMchange,Apr’19-Apr‘26
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Apr-26
90%
60%
30%
0%
-30%
512Gbcontract
MoMchange
512Gbspot
Apr-26contractpriceisaforecastbyTrendForcereleasedon16thAprSource:DRAMeXchange,TrendForce
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit35:SSDproductpricesslightlydeclinedin2HofMarchbutstillmuchhigherthanayearago
ClientSSDpricetrend–mostlyforPC(notserver),Jan’24-Mar‘26
2H-Jan-24
2H-Feb-24
2H-Mar-24
2H-Apr-24
2H-May-24
2H-Jun-24
2H-Jul-24
2H-Aug-24
2H-Sep-24
2H-Oct-24
2H-Nov-24
2H-Dec-24
2H-Jan-25
2H-Feb-25
2H-Mar-25
2H-Apr-25
2H-May-25
2H-Jun-25
2H-Jul-25
2H-Aug-25
2H-Sep-25
2H-Oct-25
2H-Nov-25
2H-Dec-25
2H-Jan-26
2H-Feb-26
2H-Mar-26
200
150
100
50
0
256GB
512GB
1TB
US$
Note:SSDpricesareasof26Feb2026,reportedbyDRAMeXchange.TB=terabyte.
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit36:Marchpricesarestill~80%higherthanend-2025levels;2025pricehikewas35-40%range
ClientSSD(forPC)pricecomparison–currentvs.end-2025
US$end-2025Mar-26
256GB512GB1TB
200
150
100
50
0
177.7128.9
103.673.1
69.240.0
Note:SSDpricesareasof26Feb2026,reportedbyDRAMeXchange
Source:DRAMeXchange
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit37:BroadlystableYTD–moreChinadominantsupplyvsminimalfromKorea
LCDITpanelpricetrend–US$/panel,Mar’22-Mar‘26
2H-Mar-22
2H-May-22
2H-Jul-22
2H-Sep-22
2H-Nov-22
2H-Jan-23
2H-Mar-23
2H-May-23
2H-Jul-23
2H-Sep-23
2H-Nov-23
2H-Jan-24
2H-Mar-24
2H-May-24
2H-Jul-24
2H-Sep-24
2H-Nov-24
2H-Jan-25
1H-Mar-25
2H-May-25
2H-Jul-25
2H-Sep-25
2H-Nov-25
2H-Jan-26
2H-Mar-26
14"LED19.5"Monitor23.6"Monitor
80US$
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Note:PanelpriceupdatefromWitsViewasof21Mar2026
Source:WitsView
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Exhibit38:Broadlyflatin2025vspriceslightlyupinJan/Feb/Mar;LCDsupplymoreChina-centricvsKorea’sOLED
LCDTVpanelpricetrend–US$/panel,Jan’24-Mar‘26
2H-Jan-24
2H-Mar-24
2H-May-24
2H-Jul-24
2H-Sep-24
2H-Nov-24
2H-Jan-25
1H-Mar-25
2H-May-25
2H-Jul-25
2H-Sep-25
2H-Nov-25
2H-Jan-26
2H-Mar-26
CH
Note:PanelpriceupdatefromWitsViewasof21Mar2026
Source:WitsView
BofAGLOBALRESEAR
32''43''50"65"
200
150
100
50
0
US$
GlobalMemoryTech|17April202611
BofAGLOBALRESEARCH
Valuationandstockperformance
Exhibit39:MemorycompaniesshowverylowP/Emultiplesdespiterecentsolidstockpricereboundvsverystrongearningsmomentum(exceptionallystrongDRAMandNANDASPin1Q/2Q26)
Valuationcomparisonamongmemoryandsemiconductorsupplychainstocks
Ticker
Rating
Price
(Local)
Mcap
($bn)
FY25
P/E
FY26E
FY27E
P/Book
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
ROE
FY25FY26EFY27E
Div.yield
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY26E
FY27E
FY26E
FY27E
FY26EFY27E
Memory/DRAM
SKHynix
HXSCF
C-1-7
1,148,000
548.5
19.0
5.0
4.5
6.8
2.9
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.2
44.2%81.0%
49.0%
0.4%
0.5%
Samsung
SSNLF
B-1-7
217,500
859.5
33.1
6.6
6.2
3.5
2.4
1.8
3.6
3.4
2.1
1.9
10.8%41.9%
32.0%
1.4%
2.2%
Micron
MU
C-1-7
457.23
515.6
55.2
8.3
5.9
9.5
4.4
2.5
6.5
4.6
4.7
3.5
18.8%74.0%
54.4%
0.1%
0.1%
Nanya
NNYAF
B-1-7
213.50
20.5
100.8
5.1
4.8
3.9
2.2
1.6
3.0
2.8
2.1
1.9
3.9%55.6%
39.2%
4.7%
4.7%
Memory/NAND
Kioxia
XIYUF
C-1-9
33,870.00
104.9
34.9
6.8
5.7
14.6
4.6
2.5
4.6
3.9
3.4
2.9
52.8%103.5%
57.9%
0.0%
0.0%
Sandisk
SNDK
C-1-9
919.47
141.0
n/a
22.6
10.3
15.3
9.3
4.8
17.1
7.8
8.6
5.1
4.3%51.4%
63.4%
0.0%
0.0%
WesternDigital
WDC
C-1-7
361.69
122.6
n/a
40.1
26.8
23.1
12.4
8.7
24.8
17.0
9.9
7.9
22.5%45.1%
42.9%
0.1%
0.1
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 门诊处方管理与点评制度
- 冲压工序料带张紧力设定规范
- 焊接线职业健康监测实施规范
- 宠物口腔病常见治疗流程规范
- 医院感染监测技术操作规范
- 宠物日常护理用品陈列方案
- 五年级下语文第六单元摸底测试卷
- 施工车辆出入安全管理措施方案
- 打架思想报告(2篇)
- (2026)创伤中心年中总结报告(3篇)
- 市政道路改造管网施工组织设计
- 药融云-甾体类药物行业产业链白皮书
- 幼儿园课程开发与教学课件
- 人教A版高中数学选择性必修第二册《导数在研究函数中的应用》评课稿
- 浮头式换热器课程设计说明书
- 脊柱侧弯三维矫正
- 轧钢厂安全检查表
- YY/T 0299-2022医用超声耦合剂
- JJG 968-2002烟气分析仪
- 尿素-化学品安全技术说明书(MSDS)
- GB 16357-1996工业X射线探伤放射卫生防护标准
评论
0/150
提交评论